Sat, 4:30 - FOX | GB -6.5
The State of the Teams: Well this game shows the clear advantage of having a bye. The Packers are relatively healthy, aside from not having David Bakhtiari. Rodgers's weaponry is at their peak availability and flexibility. For the Rams, well? Not so much, as there's optimism both Donald and Kupp will play but it remains to be seem at what level. It seems weird to think of Kupp as being of similar importance to Donald - and he's probably not, - but the offense can fall apart at times without him (see hte 2018 playoffs). For the Rams, they've been decent on the road, and the Packers haven't been far better at home, but from a 'momentum' aspect there's not a lot going for the Rams here.
The Matchup: The game will be decided on that Rams defense vs. Packers offense matchup. The Rams defense is fantastic, has improved over the year, and has one element which can/t be understated: the potential ability for Jalen Ramsey to take Devante Adams 1v1. Ramsey has done great work against top receivers this year, but Adams is a significant challenge just how shifty he is. The Rams pass rush shouldl be able to bother Rodgers but they'll really need huge games from Floyd and the edge rushers, assuming Donald won't be 100%. The Packers top red zone offense is also a nice advantage they have over a Rams red zone defense that is just 12th in the league. I should talk about the other side a bit, where the Rams offense will hope to run all over the Packers. The Packers rush defense is not great but generally is more boom or bust - they'll shoot the gap effectively often enough. Red zone matchup here too points to Green Bay, being 8th in red zone offense against a Rams team ranked 19th. Goff also is not 100% - I assume an extra week will help but he had so little accuracy even on the short to intermediate routes that should be there.
Interesting Fact to help me Pick:
The Pick: The Packers are better, and are well suited to handle the Rams strengths. The only area that gives me caution is if Ramsey is able to erase Adams to some degree. Rodgers' secondary weapons are better than people give credit, but it will be itneresting to see him try to win a game utilizing them fully. I still see the Packers are a plain better team, and more improtantly, healthier. The Packers top ranked by DVOA offense has a better chance of playing like a top-ranked offense, than a Rams team that might have a gimpy Donald for a full game.
Rams 17 Packers 27 (GB -6.5)
(A5) Baltimore Ravens (12-5) @ (A2) Buffalo Bills (14-3)
Sat, 8:15 - NBC | BUF -2.5
State of the Teams: The Bills only notable injury is Zach Moss, as everyone else should be good to go. For the Ravens, Marcus Peters missed practice a few times but it seems more precautionary/rest. These are two healthy teams - and thankfully for that as it shapes up to be a fantastic game. The Ravens have been a fully different team ever since Lamar came back, but that last week showed how well the defense quietly has played. Their secondary is bottling teams and their front is finally healthy with Wolfe, Ngaukoue, Judon able to get decent rush without resorting to needing to blitz. The Bills are of course on a roll but that Wild Card game was quite close - you do wonder if it was a bit of 'get the nerves' out early on. The offense is still on such a roll even with Beasley a bit gimpy. I do worry about the defense needing to blitz or who spies Lamar as the linebacer core is the clear weakness.
The Matchup: Why I think this game is close is that there's no bad unit. The Bills are 5th in offensive DVOA, and 12th on defense (8th weighted), the Ravens being 11th on offense (9th weighted) and 9th on defense. The Bills offenses main advantage is how well their OL has played recently. The Ravens newfound pass rush will be tested as they won't want to start needing to blitz a QB who has destroyed blitzes this year. The second aspect is if Humphrey (or Smith/Peters) can do to Diggs what they were eventually able to do to AJ Brown. I do think the Bills won't fall into the trap that the Titans did and keep hopelessly feeding their RB and just go all pass - which is way the defeat the Ravens. On the other side, the Bills weakness, relatively, is their rush defense which is a problem. They've been decent against running QBs (e.g. Arizona) but nothing is like Lamar. Their pass rush should give Lamar a few challenges however. A quiet area the Bills struggle is red zone defense - and while that isn't a strength for the Ravens (12th in the league), the Bills 28th ranked RZ defense may turn a few 3s into 7s. The Bills also struggle against TEs but are great against #1 WRs so it would figure to be a big Mark Andrews game, but not as much Hollywood - though Lamar does default to looking there. The key for Buffalo will be if they can force a turnover or two - which they didn't against the Colts but generally have done well to force a few.
Interesting Fact to Help me Pick:
The Pick: Man this seems to be a close game - though it surprised me the Bills are only 2.5pt favorites despite being at home. I get they only won by three against the Colts (a really good team, mind you), but they also won all their prior few games by a whole lot more. I do think the Bills are slightly better, mostly because I think their defense can relatively win the matchup of the two units that got better as the season went on. McDermott's defense has also historically done well against running QBs. I would not be shocked at all if this is wrong, however.
Ravens 23 Bills 26 (BUF -2.5)
(A6) Cleveland Browns (12-5) @ (A1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)
Sun, 3:00 - CBS | KC -10.0
The State of the Teams: The Chiefs are off a bye, there will be a lot of stats about how good Andy Reid is off a bye - I think the record seems to be 25-5. Of course, a few of the recent ones are against the Raiders, and similar bad teams, the Browns are not a bad team. The Browns are also getting healthier, getting Joel Bittonio back, and both of their starting corners, all three missed the Wild Card game. Of course, their biggest 'return' might be them getting their coach back. The Chiefs are a very good team, healthy, but the big question will be if they can just put a team away for once - something they haven't done since before the election (seriously).
The Matchup: Well, if you want to make the argument for a Browns win - or at least the Browns keeping it close - there are some intriguing avenues. The Chiefs have the 31st ranked rush defense by DVOA, and the Browns are #7 on rush offense by DVOA. Another nice one is the Chiefs have the worst red zone defense, and the Browns are #3 on offense in the red zone. So you can see an avenue of the Browns keeping the game short, running it well and scoring TDs when in the red zone. That's all good. The problem is there's another side of the ball - where the Browns are #25 in defensive DVOA and the Chiefs are #2 on offense. The Chiefs only real weakness on offense is their OL and the Browns pass rush has been hampered since Oliver Vernon's injury. The Browns match up relatively well with the Chiefs but not so much I think they would win.
The Pick: In the end, I do think this line is a little high for a team in the Chiefs that haven't won a game by double digits in ten weeks. The Chiefs are good enough to win, especially if their red zone offense plays as it did throughout the last few games (unlike in the middle of the year). Ultimately, I don't think the Chiefs are in serious trouble but trends say this will be a single-digit game.
Browns 24 Chiefs 31 (CLE +10.0)
(N5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5) @ (N2) New Orleans Saints (13-4)
Sun, 6:35 - FOX | NO -3.0
I don't have the heart or patience to break this down....
The Pick
Buccaneers 27 Saints 24 (TB +3.0)
