The Nostalgia Diaries, Pt. 24: The 2012 Divisional & Championship Ravens Games

The Enemy of my Enemy is my Friend. That lined repeated in my head so many times when watching the Ravens beat the Patriots to win teh 2012 AFC Championship Games. This Ravens team, one that I admittedly very much enjoyed due to my love of Ed Reed and others, had given me one of my lowest experiences as a sports fan eight days earlier. They shocked the Broncos with Peyton Manning, ending their 11-game win streak with a field goal in double OT. It was a massacre of emotions, a riotously close game with a half-dozen "holy God" moments - none more so then Flacco's heave to Jacoby Jones to tie the game at 35 with thirty seconds left on a quasi-Hail Mary. The one saving grace: The Ravens had the decency to beat the Patriots.

I'd done this two-week tango, going from desolation in defeat to exuberance in a Patriots defeat very often. It happeend just two years prior with the Jets, who beat the 2010 Colts 17-16 on a walk-off field goal (Manning's last game as a Colt) and then shocked the Patriots in Foxboro. That was different. That Colts team wasn't all that great, a 10-6 injury riddled squad lifted almost purely by Peyton's brilliance. If the Colts won that game, they probably would've lost the next week to Pittsburgh. I also didn't watch the 2010 Divisional Game when they shocked the Pats - being in India at the time. No, 2012 was very different.

For starters, the 2012 Broncos were in many ways the best team in teh NFL that year. By the end of the year that was very known - five weeks in, wiht Manning having come back from four neck surgeries, from barely being able to throw, it was far from known. Manning's return to the sport was incredible, one of the most meaningful, emotional moments for me as a sports fan was that Week 1 win over Pittsburgh. In Week 2 he threw three straight interceptions and all looked lost by the time they dropped to 2-3. Of course, the Broncos would win the next eleven games - all by at least 7 points - with an incredible combination of offense (Manning the league's best QB - runner up in an MVP race with Adrian Peterson) and a defense that was spearheaded by Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil. They scored the second most points and allowed hte fourth fewest. They gained the fourth most yards, allowing the second fewest. They were a complete dominant team. And it all went away in four harrowing hours.

2012 was an interesting season. I was a senior in college, set-up to graduate early (so that December). I had few classes, and watched a shit ton of football. Other than maybe 2008 (my Senior year of High School - sensing a trend) I never followed a season so closely. It wasn't just the return of Peyton, and me wanthing revenge for the league for casting him aside - it was the birth of the Seahawks v. 49ers rivalry, another great New England team, Adrian Peterson's 2,000 yard season and so much more. It was a special year, and it culminated in my hpe that it would crown Peyton as returning conquering king. I sat in my basement (had graduated by this point) to watch the Ravens and Broncos play in the divisional round. It was near zero degrees with wind chill (13 degrees overall). It was a brutally cold day, and I sat in my chair wrapped up feeling every bit as cold and nervous.

Having lived through a few disasters in my life as a Colts fan to that point, I knew to be nervous from the start. A quick punt return TD to put the Broncos up 7-0 didn't alleviate my fears at all and for good reason. A phantom pass interference extended the Ravens subsequent drive which ended with a bomb 59-yard TD - the longest play the Broncos gave up all year, for now. A missed clear pass interference led to a pick-6 by Baltimore to go up 14-7. A missed field goal by pro-bowl Matt Prater didn't allow the Broncos to go up 24-14 before half, and the Ravens took over and hit a 32-yard TD over Champ Bailey (continuously roasted in the game) to tie it at 21. It was harrowing, it was getting colder, and I hadn't moved. And that was just the first half.

In the second it got no better. The worst being the Broncos running three straight times for limited yards needing one first down to clinch the game. Instead they punted, and then Baltimore got one of the luckier breaks in recent playoff memory - the hail mary TD to Jacoby Jones to tie the game. Rahim Moore, a name forever cursed in my mind and all over Denver, took the worst route to the pass - doing the one thing a safety cannot do, especially in that situation. It was awful. OT just made it worse - with twice the Broncos dropping easy interceptions and once letting the Ravens convert a 3rd and long from inside their own five. It finally ended with Manning throwing a bad pick, and Justin Tucker, at the time a flighty rookie, nailing a 49yd field goal in sub-zero temps. It was brutal. I just felt shock.

Not so much they lost, but they lost in the exact ways that kept destroying his Colts playoff career. Blown leads, stupid defensive mistakes, poor performances from units strong all year, conservative coaching (after the Jacoby TD there was still ~35 seconds and the Broncos had a timeout, they just kneeled). It was all so familiar, and so haunting that it was still all there. He changed teams but his demons wouldn't go away.

I don't know if I've ever been more catatonic after a Manning loss, but this time was due to being sad for him, not sad and depressed for myself. That is a small but importnat distinction. That's why very soon after on this blog I put together a list of my 10 most harrowing, worsts sports losses, the 2012 Divisional ranked only #7 - but in terms of immedaite depression it was up there with The Tuck Rule.

And that's why I am so grateful, unendingly grateful, for the Ravens to do what they did the next week. In New England, they beat the Patriots. Not only beat them, but them handily in Foxboro. It was not a close game, it didn't come down to flukes, it didn't come down to officiating luck or insane twists and turns. It was just a pure beatdown (admittedly, the first half was close). It also ended in such great ways as a Patriots hater (and admitted Ravens quasi-fan). It ended with Flacco growing up and him and Boldin embarassing an average Patriots defense. it ended with the Ravens shutting out the Patriots, fresh off of a 550pt season in teh second half. The last three drives, starting from a point of a Ravens 28-13 lead, I was still nervous but starting to get excited, and each three ended with me closer and closer to ecstasy.

I remember watching that game with my Dad, still not fully over the loss the weekend before (done with college, I had little else to do in my day-to-day aside from planning my RTW Trip that would start a month later). We sat on our couch, lights off, darkness descending. He was getting excited early (in the end right to do so), but I couldn't shake the fact it wasn't settled yet.

The first drive ended with a Patriots turnover on downs, with Brady not scrambling for a 1st down and instead throwing up a prayer to no one. The second drive ended with an interception on a batted ball. The third drive, after the Ravens got two first downs to really drain the clock, ended with another interception that was the capper. At that moment, I had a lot of feeleings.

There was joy for the Patriots losing, for the Patriots not onyl losing but losing more badly to the team that jus tbeat Peyton. It took an epic game, full of incredible twists, lucky blunders, and truly once-in-a-decade moments, for them to beat Peyton and the Broncos. It took just them playing great to beat the Pats. I also felt a bit of joy for the Ravens - I have long been a fan of Ed Reed. The Ravens were on the losing end of another catatonic-state-inducing game the year prior in that very hellish Gillette Stadium. they got their revenge, Ed Reed got his shot at a ring - as did John Harbaugh, Flacco and so many other good to great ones. 

And finally I felt relief. That whole season was an incredible ride from the immediate highs of Manning's triumphant return in Week 1, to the 11-game win streak, to everything else. I was all set for a triumphant ending and the Ravens took it away in harrowing fashion. They were going to ruin my life because they wouldn't do the same to the Patriots, they woudn't get the refereeing help, they wouldn't get the luck of the Pats dropping picks. Turns out they didn't need any of that, they were just better on that day.

The 2012 playoffs span of eight days taught me a lot - mostly how to let go, to not hold onto the pain of a sports loss too long. In later years I've been able to shift focus a bit better than just remain a bit tied up on a past result. It also taught me to try to apprecaite the great games for what they are. The 2012 Divisional Round is truly an epic game, one of the most memorable, best played playoff games of the past decade - and I've never truly been able to appreciate it for what it is. But mostly, it taught me to not abandon hope, that out of some sports despair can come excellence - and oh and it taught me to always look on the bright side, to find the Ed Reed win in every Peyton defeat.

2020 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Review

Quick note: I went 4-0 ATS on my picks, with I think fairly accurate write-ups and rationale behind them as well (especially the Bucs pick where my rationale was "I don't have the mental strength" - and surprise, I didn't!). Anyway, on to the awards

Player/Coach of the Week: Andy Reid (Coach - KC)

So many aspects of the game showed just how great Andy Reid of a coach is. Let's start at the end - the stones of Reid to not only go for it on 4th down near midfield to clinch the game, but then to throw a sprint-right throw with the backup QB is just bananas. Maybe it was winning a Super Bowl has just unleashed a new level of ballsiness, but seeing Reid do that was incredible. Before that though, when Mahomes was in the game the Chiefs offense was scary good - and so much of that is still Reid scheming guys open play after play after play, getting Kelce singled up, the quick throws to Hill, the end-arounds to Hardiman. All of it was so special. If it has to be Henne in the Title Game, I still give the Chiefs a punching chance purely because of Andy Reid's ability to scheme that offense. He's a special, all-time coach, and I'm so glad we all get to see and appreciate it.

Runner-Up: The Aarons, Rodgers & Jones (QB/WR - GB)

The Packers offense quietly had a legendary season. They averaged a little over 3.2 pts/drive, which is an all-time good number (third highest ever, with 2007 Pats and 2018 Chiefs ahead). Now, the league average has increased over the years so in terms of level relative to average they aren't top-3 but more like Top-10, but this is still an incredible offense. Against teh best defense in the league, they rolled them, and while I'll talk about the OL later, for now let's focus on the two stars. Aaron Rodgers was brilliant in that game, throwing well to covered receivers, throwing on the run when needed, hitting a few deep shots when it was there. he was in tota control - as was Aaron Jones whose 60-yd run broke the game to start the 2nd half. Jones's emergence as a runner has been central to LaFleur's scheme and opened everything up. The best offense steamrolled the best defense (some red zone hiccups) and the two Aaron's were at the centerpiece of that effort. 

Goat of the Week: Jared Cook (TE - NO)

I want to know what the Saints win percentage was right before Cook fumbled. Before that play, the Saints were at a 83% win percentage, which was a 3rd and 2 from the 45 up 20-13. He broke free and was reaching the edge of field goal range when the fumble ocurred. Up to that point, despite the interception the Saints were outplaying Tampa fairly easily. They had held the Bucs to two FGs and a 3-yd TD drive. They were potentially on the way to going up 27-13 (or 23-13) and the way their defense was playing a two-score lead might have been enough. And then Cook fumbled. He also dropped the pass that got picked for the 3rd interception. Just a mess of a game for Cook (though as we'll come to basically ever non-Kamara skill position player gets some blame here). Aside from the Taran Johnson pick-6 there was no bigger play in the weekend that swung a game (maybe the 4th and 1 by KC as well) and unlike Johnson's pick-6 being a great play, this was just a disaster by Cook.

Runner-Up: The stupid touchback fumble rule

Everyone knows this rule is stupid. If Higgin's fumble goes two feet another way, its 1st and Goal at the 1. Now, for something that had nothing to do with either team (the trajectory of the ball after a fumble) its KC's ball at the 20. This isn't a new rule, but probably the most high profile example of it coming up. Why the NFL doesn't change it makes no sense. If you think the offense should get some penalty for fumbling (again, this doesn't exist if the offensive player fumbles out of bounds ANYWHERE ELSE) make it a loss of down and put the ball at the 10 or 20 yard line (just as arbitrary, but a lot less punitive). The league needs to do something. Chiefs v Browns was right before that fumble shaping up to be excellent. In the end it ended great because Mahomes left the game but that could've short-circuited the closes game the NFL would get that weekend.

Surprise of the Week: The Bills run defense

The Bills rush defense isn't bad, its just not particularly good. Even as the overall Bills defense got better as the season went on, the rush defense didn't really - see even the Wild Card game where the Colts ran against them well. For this game though? They were coached masterfully. Collinsworth hinted at it a couple times that they brought a safety down every play and attacked every option with two people, and it worked from the jump. After the first few runs by Gus Edwards, the Ravens run game got nothing. The Bills needed the defense, and particularly the rush defense, given the wind was causing Allen and the offense problems, and they were spectacular. The focus will shift back to the pass rush and coverage next week but the Bills have shown remarkable schematic and focus flexibility.

Runner-Up: The Chiefs run defense

Oh hey! Another maligned rush defense that played well against a team that needed to run the ball and wanted to. The Browns rush offense on its face ended with nice numbers but a lot of their 112 yards came on a select few big runs. The Chiefs did a great job on ealry downs forcing the Browns into a lot of 2nd & Longs. The Chiefs rush defense got great contributions from the normal guys like Chris Jones, but also great work from the second and third level in shooting gaps and stretching plays out. Spagnuolo's defense was great in this game, as its been in last year's playoffs as well. They'll need to switch tracks fully in the Title Game - much like the Bills.

Disappointment of the Week: Not getting Brees v Rodgers

We were so close to finally getting a Rodgers v Brees playoff game. For a good 5-6 years (2009-2015), the NFL had four QBs spearheading it: Brady, Manning, Brees, Rodgers. Two in the AFC, two in the NFC. The AFC two played five playoff games against each other. They've also combined to go to 13 Super Bowls and win 8 (9 & 6 for Brady, 4 & 2 for Manning). Brees and Rodgers, despite being HOF QBs the whole time, have never met and combined only went to one Super Bowl each. The prospect of finally getting Brees v Rodgers in the playoffs, with the winner getting their long-awaited 2nd Super Bowl appearance, was so tantalizing. And it doesn't happen - and in the saddest way, with Brees likely ending his career with an absolute dud. My mind raced immediately in that game to Peyton and the Broncos loss in 2014 to the Colts - similarly at home with the QB throwing a disaster. Peyton was a little more careful with the ball but to the point of just plain missing throws short. Peyton, like Brees, got hurt mid-way through 2014 and his play dropped. In Peyton's case he never truly recovered (though of course did somehow win a Super Bowl). It seems like we won't get a chance to see if Brees recovers. If that was the last game for Brees, it was such a joy watching him over the years. There are a few regrets - the heartbreaking playoff losses he was on the losing side of - but one will always be we never got him to play his NFC QB rival in the playoffs.

Runner-Up: Raven's Special Teams

Yes, I get that it was windy, but man was that a disaster. People will harp on the three points, but it should've been 9 (not great, mind you, but better). Seeing Justin Tucker miss two field goals was just staggering - seeing him miss by both hitting the uprights was fascinating - even in misses he's doing some absurd (two straight doinks). The special teams issues went beyond just the kicking game - there were a couple shanked punts giving Buffalo good field position, and zero returns. The Ravens special teams have been great for basically the entirety of Harbaugh's tenure so to see it be downright bad was just not surprising in a bad sense, it was downright sad.

Team Performance of the Week: Packers O-Line

No David Bakthiari, and no problem. The Packers offense was fantastic - and it helps having Rodgers and Jones (and even Adams winning his matchup against Ramsey). Let's not underrate how good that OL is, especially in the interior. Donald had a quiet night, as did the rest of that front that absolutely dominated Seattle the week prior. The Tackles were fine against Floyd and the other edge rushers. They picked up the few blitzes well. They opened up hole after hole. The Packers will need to repeat every bit of that performance next week against Tampa Bay but the Rams have shown just how good their OL can be even without Bakhtiari.

Runner-Up: Buccaneers Back-7

The Bucs defensive strength most of the year was its pass rush and front, both in getting good consistent pressure and clogging the run game. Well, in this game they didn't do that much of either, but the back-seven was fantastic. The coverage guys all played straight up man most of the game and did it well - not fearing deep shots helps! Devin White in his game back from COVID was excellent. Winfield Jr's forced fumble on the Cook catch likely turned the game from a potential loss. Given the Packers strength is their interior OL, I have to think the Bucs will need a similarly great performance from their back-7 to win in Lambeau.

Team Laydown of the Week: Saints skill guys

Look, Brees was awful. It was tough to watch. Worse than not having an arm, he turned it over and threw dangerous passes. But the Saints skills guys gave him zero help aside from Kamara. Michael Thomas had drops and couldn't beat or body simple man coverage. Sanders was awful on his few attempts. Tre'Quan Smith admittedly had a decent game, but when he is your standout you aren't going to win. And of course there was Jared Cook. The Saints had a workable offense this season because their skill guys could elevate Brees (or Hill), and in this game they just laid a flat out egg.

Runner-Up: Ravens O-Line

The Ravens OL was injured and decinmated this year but rounded form so well the last few weeks. Whatever gains they seemed to have made disappeared. Jackson was pressured instantly often. The run game had no holes to run through. Credit the Bills defense (and I've done so already) but the Ravens OL did not play up to the standard they themselves have set over the second half of the season. That game was there for the taking due to the way the wind effected the passing games, and the Ravens needed their OL to dominate in a way they have so often. More than Lamar, the OL falling apart was a bigger factor in the Ravens loss.

Storyline that will be Beat Into the Ground: Brady v Rodgers

We didn't get Rodgers v Brees, but we do get Brady v Rodgers, and especially since there is uncertainty on Mahomes's availability (get to that in a moment), man will we be inundated with the Brady v Rodgers angle. I get it - two of the 5-7 best QBs ever, one of which could be playing his last few games (though pretty obvious Brady comes back next year). Playing in Lambeau, in potential snow (forecast is 25 degrees with 40% of showers). This shapes up to be an epic.... that I will barely stomach to watch. Anyway, Rodgers is the MVP, win or lose. He's a better QB at this point in his career, win or lose. But damn it all if Brady wins people will slurp him immediately.

Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground: Mahomes concussion and the NFL concussion protocal working

We won't now for sure that Mahomes will play until Saturday - though with him already Tweeting in joking manners (of course, might be his 'team') gives the indication Mahomes at least thinks he should be good to go. But the main point is we won't know. We won't know until the day before. Obviously, from a competitive standpoint this has absolutely huge implications - turning the Chiefs into a slight favorite to a significant underdog. But I do want to pause a second and give credit to the NFL, the Chiefs, the league, that Mahomes was not allowed back in the game. We've long wondered what would happen if the QB gets a concussion deep into a competitive playoff game. We saw it twice this weekend, but more obliquely with Mahomes. And he was removed - there was no star treatment, there was no looking the other way (remember the furor around Edelman in the Falcons comeback Super Bowl). The league's protocols worked in the highest profile moment to date. We shift now to seeing if Mahomes gets cleared, and he very well may but if he does get cleared, I'm good to assume it was because he passed his medical clearance tests.

Moment of the Week: Taran Johnson's Pick-6

This is a new category, maybe one that will stay but I did want to add it just to talk about the Taran Johnson Pick-6 for a moment. Not even talk about the nature of the play and how it was the most meaningful interception since James Harrison's in SB XLIII. No, I want to talk about that moment - that long pick return in Buffalo, in the cold, in a night playoff game. That is a perfect NFL moment. The only imperfect aspect was there were only 6,700 fans there to soak it in instead of 67,000. We all know the reasons. COVID has robbed the world of so much, and included in that (nowhere near the top) is no or limited fans. With that in mind, I was so happy there were 6,700 fans there to go insane at that moment. It was a small little piece of normalcy. It was left to the mind to imagine how a filled Bills Stadium would've reacted - it would have been insane. This team hadn't won a playoff game in 26 years. They have a home Divisional Round game, at night, in the Cold. I think the Bills will be good for a while so hopefully we don't have to wait too long to get a similar moment with a packed house.

2020 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

(N6) Los Angeles Rams (11-6)  @  (N1) Green Bay Packers (13-3)

Sat, 4:30 - FOX   |   GB -6.5

The State of the Teams: Well this game shows the clear advantage of having a bye. The Packers are relatively healthy, aside from not having David Bakhtiari. Rodgers's weaponry is at their peak availability and flexibility. For the Rams, well? Not so much, as there's optimism both Donald and Kupp will play but it remains to be seem at what level. It seems weird to think of Kupp as being of similar importance to Donald - and he's probably not, - but the offense can fall apart at times without him (see hte 2018 playoffs). For the Rams, they've been decent on the road, and the Packers haven't been far better at home, but from a 'momentum' aspect there's not a lot going for the Rams here.

The Matchup: The game will be decided on that Rams defense vs. Packers offense matchup. The Rams defense is fantastic, has improved over the year, and has one element which can/t be understated: the potential ability for Jalen Ramsey to take Devante Adams 1v1. Ramsey has done great work against top receivers this year, but Adams is a significant challenge just how shifty he is. The Rams pass rush shouldl be able to bother Rodgers but they'll really need huge games from Floyd and the edge rushers, assuming Donald won't be 100%. The Packers top red zone offense is also a nice advantage they have over a Rams red zone defense that is just 12th in the league. I should talk about the other side a bit, where the Rams offense will hope to run all over the Packers. The Packers rush defense is not great but generally is more boom or bust - they'll shoot the gap effectively often enough. Red zone matchup here too points to Green Bay, being 8th in red zone offense against a Rams team ranked 19th. Goff also is not 100% - I assume an extra week will help but he had so little accuracy even on the short to intermediate routes that should be there.

Interesting Fact to help me Pick:

The Pick: The Packers are better, and are well suited to handle the Rams strengths. The only area that gives me caution is if Ramsey is able to erase Adams to some degree. Rodgers' secondary weapons are better than people give credit, but it will be itneresting to see him try to win a game utilizing them fully. I still see the Packers are a plain better team, and more improtantly, healthier. The Packers top ranked by DVOA offense has a better chance of playing like a top-ranked offense, than a Rams team that might have a gimpy Donald for a full game.

Rams 17  Packers 27  (GB -6.5)

(A5) Baltimore Ravens (12-5)  @  (A2) Buffalo Bills (14-3)

Sat, 8:15 - NBC  |  BUF -2.5

State of the Teams: The Bills only notable injury is Zach Moss, as everyone else should be good to go. For the Ravens, Marcus Peters missed practice a few times but it seems more precautionary/rest. These are two healthy teams - and thankfully for that as it shapes up to be a fantastic game. The Ravens have been a fully different team ever since Lamar came back, but that last week showed how well the defense quietly has played. Their secondary is bottling teams and their front is finally healthy with Wolfe, Ngaukoue, Judon able to get decent rush without resorting to needing to blitz. The Bills are of course on a roll but that Wild Card game was quite close - you do wonder if it was a bit of 'get the nerves' out early on. The offense is still on such a roll even with Beasley a bit gimpy. I do worry about the defense needing to blitz or who spies Lamar as the linebacer core is the clear weakness.

The Matchup: Why I think this game is close is that there's no bad unit. The Bills are 5th in offensive DVOA, and 12th on defense (8th weighted), the Ravens being 11th on offense (9th weighted) and 9th on defense. The Bills offenses main advantage is how well their OL has played recently. The Ravens newfound pass rush will be tested as they won't want to start needing to blitz a QB who has destroyed blitzes this year. The second aspect is if Humphrey (or Smith/Peters) can do to Diggs what they were eventually able to do to AJ Brown. I do think the Bills won't fall into the trap that the Titans did and keep hopelessly feeding their RB and just go all pass - which is way the defeat the Ravens. On the other side, the Bills weakness, relatively, is their rush defense which is a problem. They've been decent against running QBs (e.g. Arizona) but nothing is like Lamar. Their pass rush should give Lamar a few challenges however. A quiet area the Bills struggle is red zone defense - and while that isn't a strength for the Ravens (12th in the league), the Bills 28th ranked RZ defense may turn a few 3s into 7s. The Bills also struggle against TEs but are great against #1 WRs so it would figure to be a big Mark Andrews game, but not as much Hollywood - though Lamar does default to looking there. The key for Buffalo will be if they can force a turnover or two - which they didn't against the Colts but generally have done well to force a few.

Interesting Fact to Help me Pick:

The Pick: Man this seems to be a close game - though it surprised me the Bills are only 2.5pt favorites despite being at home. I get they only won by three against the Colts (a really good team, mind you), but they also won all their prior few games by a whole lot more. I do think the Bills are slightly better, mostly because I think their defense can relatively win the matchup of the two units that got better as the season went on. McDermott's defense has also historically done well against running QBs. I would not be shocked at all if this is wrong, however. 

Ravens 23 Bills 26  (BUF -2.5)

(A6) Cleveland Browns (12-5)  @  (A1) Kansas City Chiefs (14-2)

Sun, 3:00 - CBS   |   KC -10.0

The State of the Teams: The Chiefs are off a bye, there will be a lot of stats about how good Andy Reid is off a bye - I think the record seems to be 25-5. Of course, a few of the recent ones are against the Raiders, and similar bad teams, the Browns are not a bad team. The Browns are also getting healthier, getting Joel Bittonio back, and both of their starting corners, all three missed the Wild Card game. Of course, their biggest 'return' might be them getting their coach back. The Chiefs are a very good team, healthy, but the big question will be if they can just put a team away for once - something they haven't done since before the election (seriously).

The Matchup: Well, if you want to make the argument for a Browns win - or at least the Browns keeping it close - there are some intriguing avenues. The Chiefs have the 31st ranked rush defense by DVOA, and the Browns are #7 on rush offense by DVOA. Another nice one is the Chiefs have the worst red zone defense, and the Browns are #3 on offense in the red zone. So you can see an avenue of the Browns keeping the game short, running it well and scoring TDs when in the red zone. That's all good. The problem is there's another side of the ball - where the Browns are #25 in defensive DVOA and the Chiefs are #2 on offense. The Chiefs only real weakness on offense is their OL and the Browns pass rush has been hampered since Oliver Vernon's injury. The Browns match up relatively well with the Chiefs but not so much I think they would win.

The Pick: In the end, I do think this line is a little high for a team in the Chiefs that haven't won a game by double digits in ten weeks. The Chiefs are good enough to win, especially if their red zone offense plays as it did throughout the last few games (unlike in the middle of the year). Ultimately, I don't think the Chiefs are in serious trouble but trends say this will be a single-digit game.

Browns 24  Chiefs 31  (CLE +10.0)

(N5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-5)  @  (N2) New Orleans Saints (13-4)

Sun, 6:35 - FOX   |   NO -3.0

I don't have the heart or patience to break this down....

The Pick

Buccaneers 27  Saints 24  (TB +3.0) 

The Nostalgia Diaries, Pt. 23: The 2002 Fiesta Bowl

It struck me while watching yesterday's seven-on-seven drill (supposedly, a real sanctioned football game), that I have such low expectations for any college football game. If we do get a great college football game, that is somewhat competitively played, I'm stunned - take the 2016 Title Game (Jan 2017) where Clemson beat Alabama somewhat on a walk-off. Honestly. games seem to fall into two camps, either epic games or simple blowouts with so little in between. That aspect, coupled with going to a College that didn't even have a football team, has cratered my interest in the sport over the years - but it wasn't always this way. I mean, it was mostly this way, but there was a time a long time ago, at a point where I was barely watching NFL, that I did love a college game, one whose uniqueness only grows over time.

In 2002 we were twelve years away from College instituting a playoff, and hte sport was still using the BCS as a way to decide who were the top two teams in the country. This systematic way of doing it seemingly changed annually (more so the following year when USC was left out and ended up being voted #1 in teh AP Poll at years end - the specific result the BCS was supposed to avoid). This year though, we didn't need computers to tell us that the top teams were Ohio State and Miami, both undefeated. It was all set to be played in the glow of Tempe Arizona in an old shitbox known as Sun Devil Stadium, branded The Fiesta Bowl. For one day, that title was more than accurate.

The game shouldn't have been close. The Hurricanes were the defending champions, with future NFL stars all over hte place (though not as many as the year before when they still had Ed Reed and Reggie Wayne as well). It is startling looking back at the roster the Hurricanes put on the field - back before Nick Saban and then a slew of others took the focus away from Florida.

The only weak link was only a weak link from an NFL perspective in their QB of Ken Dorsey. Outside of that, they had Willis McGahee as a dominant RB (with Frank Gore as the change of pace guy), Andre Johnson as the lead WR, Kellen Winslow II as the main TE, two long-time NFL starters on the OL, three on the DL including VInce Wilfork, two longtime NFL regulars at LB (DJ Williams, Jonathan Vilma), Antrel Rolle at corner and a young beast named Sean Taylor at safety. They were loaded. They had won 34 straight games entering this one. That streak would not go any higher.

It's probably wrong to state Ohio State was a list of nobodies - certainly looking back they had a lot of future NFL talent on the team, even putting aside their main player of Maurice Clarrett heading into the game. Their roster featured Michael Jenkins, Drew Carter and Chris Gamble at WR (Gamble was also a starting corner, a position he played full-time in the pros), Nick Mangold as a center, Shane Olivea as a tackle, Will Smith as a DE, Mike Doss and Will Allen as safeties, and a young AJ Hawk as a backup linebacker. Certainly they had talent, it just never showed until their moment beating a dynasty.

Ohio State went 13-0 prior to the Fiesta Bowl, but it was the way they played - a lot of running from I-formation, so little throwing from Craig Krenzel - and the way they won that led to such little respect. Hard to blame the world though. That 13-0 record was littered with close games, beaitng Cincinnati by just 4, Northwestern by 11, Wisconsin by 5, Purdue by 4, and Illinois by 7 - all of those unranked teams. They won the right to play in the title game by beating Michigan 14-9. They were putting up bad NFL offense scores in these games (10-6, 13-7, 23-16, 23-19). The defense was consistently great, the offense consistently bad enough to win ugly but they won.

Miami did not win ugly. They won beautifully - apart from two games (over Florida State by 1, and the only weird result, a 7-pt win over Pittsburgh). They dominated good teams, humiliated bad ones. There were no signs this was anything aside from a ludicrously talented, good, team. And they were - it was more that a truly great team was hiding in Ohio behind Tressel's 'old-school' bullshit.

The game itself was a fascinating chess match that the Buckeyes changed on specific big plays. It started quite ominously, the teams traded punts but the Hurricanes punt came after a drive that featured two Andre Johnson catches for first downs and two sacks. The two sacks were an indicator that the Buckeyes defense was more than good enough. The Buckeyes did fall behind 7-0, but an interception gave a short field to make it 7-7, and a sack-fumble on the eunsuing drive gave another short field and another TD to make it 14-7. Suddenly, the little Buckeyes were very much alive.

What really showed this was not the night for Miami was the first of two bonkers plays that will live in infamy. Kraig Krenzel threw a terrible interception after having first and goal (featuring a 50-yard pass to Chris Gamble) to Sean Taylor but on the pick return, Maurice Clarrett just took the ball away from Taylor. It was an amazing play - another sign that the Buckeyes were every bit as physical and capable of the amazing.

The game ended tied at 17,-17 a truly defensive struggle with many big plays biut the Buckeyes absolutely looking they deserved to be onthe field. The Hurricanes won snap to snap, but the Buckeyes could either get pressure enough, or get a big play so often, to make it still very competitive. College Football has so little ability to surprise us anymore - and even the recent 'upset's aren't even that close (see Ohio State's demolition of Clemson), but this one surprised, and did so because it gave us an NFL score with a buch of future NFL players.

The Overtimes played out brilliantly, with the other lasting moment: the pass interference flag. After scoring a TD to make it 24-17, the Hurricanes seemed to have snuffed out the last of the fight, with a simple pass to Chris Gamble on 4th down dropping incomplete. There was a combustible release of a celebration, with Miami players rushing the field and a few fans getting a step away, and then we all saw that little piece of laundry. There may not have been a higher profile refereeing decision in college football in my lifetime. 

That flag - one for pass interference - indirectly ended a dynasty. The Buckeyes scored two plays later, and ekded out a TD in the second OT to make it 31-24. The Hurricanes neededa bunch of plays to get traction but ultimately had a 1st and Goal at the 2 - but three runs and a terrible pass with a Buckeye rusher hanging off Dorsey's shoulder ended it.

The celebration was made famous for Tressel's iconic "we always had the best damn band in the land, now we have the best damn team in the land" line, which was delivered perfectly. At that moment, to me the BCS era peaked as it had delivered. It gave us a team from the Big 10 playing a team from the ACC. It gave us the two best teams and an opportunity to duke it out, with a college upstart in Ohio State taking on the bluest-blood program at that moment. It gave us drama, and drama we knew would decide a title. It was beautiful, it was a perfect college football moment.

The next year gave us controversy the BCS would never really recover from, when they passed over a 11-1 USC team for a 11-1 Oklahoma team that got hammered in its conference title game. Oklahoma would lose to LSU (Saban's first title, a lifetime ago), USC won the Rose Bowl, and the AP decided USC was the best team - a direct conflict from the coaches poll which had LSU. Two years later we got a game more dramatic and more legendary than this (Texas's win over USC) but by then we had seen the BCS's imperfections. Here, we saw nothing but its glory.

2020 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Weekend Review

Player of the Week: Aaron Donald (DT, LAR)

Admittedly, Donald missed the last quarter or so of the Rams dominant performance. But even after he was out, the mindset and drive he brought is just imbued by the rest of that Rams defense. The Rams defnese as a whole is incredible and was incredible, but we have to talk about Donald, who had two sacks, a few other hits & hurries, and so many run plays of just immediately teleporting to the backfield. Donald is a once-in-a-generation player and that showed as he and the rest of that front (and their secondary) humiliated the Seahawks from that second drive with the two sacks.

Runner-Up: Josh Allen (QB, BUF)

It was a toss-up here between Allen and Lamar, both third year QBs who had not won playoff games before getting that first win. I'll give it to Allen as the Bills offense was a more crucial part of that win than the Ravens offense was. Allen also was phenomenal, even after a rocky start. His throw to Gibson on the run late in the first half when they were trailing 10-7 was likely the single best offensive play of the weekend. In that first half, when Diggs was getting controlled, Allen was great even when he had to turn to the run. In the second half, he and Diggs showed up huge. Allen has reined in his game to make him truly a special player - the first 'project' QB that 100% has worked.

Goat of the Week: Mike Tomlin (Coach, PIT)

I think Mike Tomlin is a great coach. It's astounding for him to have coached 14 years without a losing season. That said, there's been a lot of just awful starts to playoff games in his run. This was the nadir, but they also trailed 28-7 to the Jags in their most recent playoff game. If we look at his tenure as a whole, we have games trailing in the first half 21-7 ('07, Jags), 21-7 ('10 Ravens, they won the game), 21-3 ('10 Packers), 20-6 ('11, Broncos). In this game they never really recovered, the defense had no real Plan-B when they realized their front wasn't winning. And then of course the two just ludicrous game management decisions - passing up a 2pt conversion after a TD made it 35-22, and then the punt on the ensuing drive. Incomprehensible, really.

Runner-Up: Russell Wilson (QB, SEA)

I don't think I've seen Russ looks so hapless since the peak LOB days when he would have a game or two like that - often against the Fisher-era Rams. This was just a disaster. Yes, he was pressured 50% of the time he dropped back, but he also was dreadful when he wasn't pressured - including that awful screne pass pick-6. He was not elusive in the pocket, he missed receivers. He was awful. He's not an awful player and I think he showed this year how great he can be, but the drop-off in the second half, and this disaster, are signs letting Russ Cook isn't the answer to everything that ills Seattle.

Surprise of the Week: Cleveland Browns Defense 

The Browns aren't a good defense when healthy. They certainly aren't when they are missing their top two corners due to COVID restrictions, and when Myles Garrett has a fairly milquetoast game. For the Browns to still be so active in coverage, so good at batting balls down, so good at reacting to those batted balls. That was a masterpiece from a defense that had no business even being decent, let alone great. The Browns should get the corners back for next week and they'll need to as I can't imagine the Chiefs will be so forgiving.

Runner-Up: Indianapolis Colts O-Line

The Colts O-Line being good isn't a total surprise. Quentin Nelson is a monster and they have a few other good players. They also didn't have Anthony Costanzo and his main backup, and didn't have a healthy RT either. In the regular season, anytime Costanzo didn't play the team fell apart offensively, particularly the passing game. Not so in this one. Even in a loss, Rivers was barely touched and they rolled up 470 yards of offense. It was a great performance that came a few bounces away from stealing a road playoff win.

Disappointment of the Week: Washington's Defensive Line

It was supposed to be the big matchup of the week, and while the Football Team did end up sacking Brady twice, and Brady did throw a decent amount of incompletions (somewhat due to good pressure), the Washington defensive line was just roasted. The Bucs have a very good OL, but they've been beat by good fronts before (see the Saints and Rams games), but the Football Team could not get consistent pressure at all. Chase Young is a great young player, but he's also a green young player, and whatever hand-up game he was trying to play did not work. The Football Team's DL may have a really bright future but in their first spotlight game they were a bust.

Runner-Up: Stupid analytics arguments

Hooray, we get to rehash dumb 4th down decisions again! What's hilarious is that both sides of the analytics/"go-for-it" debate are having arguments. It's amazing that a lot of people are understandably pillorying Mike Vrabel and Mike Tomlin for ludicrous punts in the 4th quarter (Titans punting on 4th-2 down 17-13, Steelers punting on 4th-1 down 35-23), but also that a lot of people then got upset at Frank Reich for going for it on 4th-Goal up 10-7, and then going for two when scoring a TD down 24-10. For the Reich stuff, harping on him is just dumb. The 4th-Goal was from the 4, but he also schemed up a play to get a WR wide open. On the 2-pt conversion, admittedly there was a bit more time when "going-for-2 down 14" is settled science but we've had that debate. For Vrabel and Tomlin, it was just depressing to watch. Both were undefensible. Somehow Tomlin's punt is overshadowing him kicking an extra point down 13 (TD that made it 35-22) instead of so obviously needing to go for two. Just an awful weekend for the 4th down crowd, but it you want ot say that you can't have any issue at all with what Frank Reich did.

Team Performance of the Week: Cleveland Browns OL

Unlike my love for the Colts earlier, the Browns OL is good in it scurrent form. That said, they were missing Joel Bittonio and then Jack Conklin, and they were just brilliant. They road-graded the league's second best defense. They kept Mayfield clean. The Steelers have had a sack in 70+ straight games, but they couldn't touch Mayfield. Chubb and Hunt are great running backs but they were able to dominate the Steelers because the OL got hole after hole after hole for them. Watt and Heyward were silent because that OL was montrous. Just an amazing effort.

Runner-Up: New Orleans Saints defense

I guess legally I should talk about this game for a second. The Saints defense is great, but that was another level of just not letting the Bears do anything. Their secondary draped the Bears receiver (aside from the gadget-play). even without Christensen the defensive front was ridiculous, stopping any type of running game from Montgomery. Trubisky had nothing to throw to. They will have to repeat every second of that performance to beat Tampa Bay - especially since the Saints offense didn't look too hot - but if that game is an indicator, it is possible. Their secondary play is at such a high level at the moment. I never would have imagined a Dennis Allen coached defense play like this.

Team Laydown of the Week: Tennessee Titans OL

I've extolled both the Colts and Browns OLs for their performances, so let's do the exact opposite and slam the Titans, a high priced OL that has generally been excellent, for being a disaster. Yes, it's easy to knock Henry for the poor run-game performance, but his OL gave him nothing. They repeatedly got no forward push and didn't allow Henry to start running. They were decent in pass protection but overall it was a far cry from the at times dominant unit that was a central cog of honestly one of the top-3 offenses in the league this year. Sad end for what was a really fun team at times.

Runner-Up: Pittsburgh Steelers defense

Basically you can reverse everything I wrote about in the Browns OL section here, but more than just the OL winning the matchup against the Steelers front, teh Steelers in the back end seemed slow and tired, missing tackles, giving up oodles of YAC. Their scheme was lost at times, way too often leaving LBs to try to cover Landry on short route. It was a disaster for what was the league's defense through the year. Special demerits for TJ Watt, who disappeared fully in that game. Its these disappearing acts in key games that makes me hate the few times I hear anyone even hint at TJ being anything close to his brother as a player.

Storyline that will be Beaten into the Ground: Ravens, Bucs are HOT!

The Ravens have won six straight games now, coinciding with Lamar's return from COVID and the OL getting dominant again. For the Bucs, they've now won five straight games, coinciding with Ali Marpet getting healthy and the OL getting dominant. Because of hte presence of #2 seeds in Wild Card weekend we're getting a bit less 'this is the hot wild card team!' stories because in both cases both the Ravens and Bucs are playing a team that also played last weekend, but still we are going to see a lot of stories about how hot these teams are. Forget the fact the Bills are better than Tennessee at this point, and even if you feel that is debatable, certainly the Saints are a big step up from Washington. Both the Ravens and Bucs are good teams and both are playing better now than they did earlier in teh season, but the Bills and Saints are also great teams. Always beware of the team that looks too good in Week 1.

Storyline that should be Beat Into the Ground: Does HFA mean anything this year?

Over the course of the season there was barely any HFA. Not a huge surprise given there were little to no fans at most games. If you look at the first playoff weekend, this was so apparent. Home teams went 2-4, and both the wins were in teh #2 v #7 matchups that HFA aside you would assume are the most skewed (definitely so on hte NFC side). If you look at the matchups in Divisional Weekend, you get #1 v #6 and #2 v #5 - basically a normal set-up, nothing to indicate a new format (we really won't feel the impact of expanded playoffs until we get our first #7 over #2 upset and a non-#2 seed is hosting a divisional game). Now, having both #6 and #5 seeds win isn't so unprecendented - it happened as recently as 2015 (PIT over CIN, SEA over MIN, KC over HOU, GB over WAS). Strange thing though, all four of the home teams won in the Divisional Round (DEN over PIT, CAR over SEA, NE over KC and ARZ over GB). Divisional Round has been heavily in favor of home teams in recent years dating back to 2011, going 29-7 in that time period, with no seasons where more than one road team won. If that is going to change, it is going to be this absurd season.

2020 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Picks

(A7) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)  @  (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-3)

Sat., 1:00 - CBS  |  BUF -6.5

Colts 17  Bills 27  (BUF -6.5)

(N6) Los Angeles Rams (10-6)  @  (N3) Seattle Seahawks (12-4)

Sat., 4:40 - FOX  |  SEA -3.0

Rams 20  Seahawks 17  (LAR +3.0)

(N5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)  @  (N4) Washington Football Team (7-9)

Sat., 8:15 - NBC  |  TB -8.0

Buccaneers 24  Buccaneers 10  (TB -8.0)

(A5) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)  @  (A4) Tennessee Titans (11-5)

Sun., 1:00 - ESPN  |  BAL -3.0

Ravens 31  Titans 24  (BAL -3.0)

(N7) Chicago Bears (8-8)  @  (N2) New Orleans Saints (12-4)

Sun., 4:40 - CBS  |  NO -10.0

Bears 16  Saints 24  (CHI +10.0)

(A6) Cleveland Browns (11-5)  @  (A3) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

Sun., 8:15 - NBC  |  PIT -6.0

Browns 16  Steelers 27  (PIT -6.0)

NFL 2020: Final Power Ranking, pt 2: The Playoff Teams & Wild Card Games

Ranking the AFC Playoff Field

7.) Cleveland Browns  =  11-5  (408-419)

Overall: It's surprising how few people are talking about the Browns having a negative point differential. Granted, its entirely the cause of losing two games 76-13 against the Ravens and Steelers early in the year, but take those away and their +52 for an 11-3 team which isn't that great either. I'm happy for the Browns and their fans that they are in the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. I'm also acknowledging that this isn't the best team, though they've been hampered by injuries (apparently are getting healthier) and a bizarre string of November weather-impacted games.

Offense: The Browns are just a good offense. Not great, mind you, but good. The closest thing to great is their OL and their run game - especially Nick Chubb, but even Hunt has been good. But they rank around #10 in basically most advanced stats: pts/drive, yds/drive, overall DVOA, pass & run DVOA and on and on and on. They are also highly variable week to week, which in theory helps because they are capable of truly great games, but also capable of drek.

Defense: On this side, the Browns are consistently below-avearge. On their face they have a good pass rush, but even there with just 38 sacks they are below average, and that is before now missing Olivier Vernon. They should have some secondary players back which will help their 25th rank pass defense by DVOA but the Browns are not a good defense, only looking good when they were able to play a string of teams in rain, mud and snow.

Random Fact: 

6.) Tennessee Titans  =  11-5  (491-439)

Overall: The 2020 Titans are very much like the 2019 Titans after Tannehill took over but a more extreme version - a horrifyingly good combination of power running and play-action/deep throwing, plus a defense that is even worse at rushing the passer. Their offense is great, the defense is not, though because of their 'smashmouth' style it doesn't always seem that way.

Offense: The Titans offense is great. That isn't an understatement. They finished the year #4 in offensive DVOA, #4 passing, #2 rushing, #3 in yards/drive, #2 in points/drive, with low turnover rates. They've finally settled a bit on their skill position guys - having a monster like AJ Brown helps settle things. The only aspect that hurts the Titans offense (and again, not too much) is the fact they don't get too many cracks with the ball because.....

Defense: The Titans defense is very, very bad. They are the mirror image in many ways of the Titans offense. They rank #29 in total DVOA, #30 in pass defense DVOA, #30 in yards/drive allowed and #27 in pts/drive allowed. The one thing they seem to do well is force turnovers, which is not always a repeatable skill and given how low turnover rates are now there is some noise there. The one thing they are just awful at is rushing the passer, with a random 4-sack game in Week 17 to make them look not historically bad.

Random Fact:

5.) Indianapolis Colts  =  11-5  (451-362)

Overall: The Colts to me are the AFC version of the Rams, with a few exceptions. On the whole a good defense, a good offense but one that scores less than it should, with a QB that may melt down every now and then. That isn't fully true though as the Colts defense did fall off in the second half of the season (injuries played a part, including that total anomaly against Tennessee) and their offense ending up scoring a decent amount of points.

Offense: The Colts are solid across the board, #12 in overall DVOA, top-half in both passing and rushing (and getting better at both across the year), and #7 in yds/drive and #11 in pts/drive. The Colts did have a few truly important developments in the second half of the season, with Jonathan Taylor really breaking out, and TY Hilton awaking from a weird slumber in the first half of the season. The real question mark will be Anthony Costanzo's absence, as their numbers with and without him are stark.

Defense: The defense fell off in the second half but not considerably. For the year, they ended in the Top-10 in defensive DVOA overall and against both pass and run. They were a little worse on a per-drive basis, but were #4 in forcing turnovers, with a ball-hawky team that remained so across the year. Buckner, Leonard and Moore are the stars, but this is just a solid defense across the board coached very well - again much like their NFC doppelganger in the Rams.

Random Fact: 

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  12-4  (416-312)

Overall: The Steelers 11-0 start seems so long ago - and of course it is. Aside from one pass-interference enabled comeback of a half against Indianapolis, the Steelers have been sleepwalking for a while. Maybe that half wakes them up - and certainly their defense is still very good, but that offense will need to wake up and recapture some of the deep ball prowess they had in that Colts half. 

Offense: Want some good news? The Steelers rarely turn it over, with a bottom-5 turnover rate. The bad news? Everything else about this offense is middling, ranking in the 20s in offensive, passing, rushing DVOA, yds/drive and pts/drive. Roethlisberger has turned into some hyper-Brees, averaging under 10 ypc in most games - despite him still having very good success when throwing between 11-19 yards - something they just decide not to do. It can gin up some points because the weapons are good enough but defenses adjusted.

Defense: Well, this is a lot more fun. Injuries took some of the sting away from the Steelers defense over the year - paricularly in their linebacker corp - they still end up near the top in almost everything. They ended #1 in DVOA, #1 against the pass and #5 against the run. They are also #2 in yards and #2 in points per drive, in teh Top-10 as well in forcing turnovers. This is just a great unit all around.

Random Fact:

3.) Baltimore Ravens  =  11-5  (468-303)

Overall: If I'm going to make a comparison that the Colts are the AFC's version of the Rams, well, the Ravens are the AFC's version of the Bucs. This is another team that was mired in issues midway through the season that nicely got to fatten up on an easy schedule to end it. I'll give the Ravens credit for the win in Cleveland, but aside from that they played a string of awful teams in their 5-game win streak. Maybe they've turned a corner, and certainly the Ravens played about twelve weeks of this season looking like the juggernaut they were in 2019, but those other four weeks still exist.

Offense: The Ravens are a good not great offense in all respects aside from their #3 running game by DVOA. They probably should have been higher but offensive line injuries midway through took a toll. The offense has also had to overcome cases of drops and Marquise Brown disappearing for half a year. Oodles of rushing yards these last five games will make things seem shinier than they are but this is not close to the offense we saw last year.

Defense: The Ravens ranked #4 in pts/drive allowed with a top-5 turnover forced rate. They still blitz a lot but were less effective with said blitzes this year. The personnel is still there however, guys like Humphrey and Bowser are still strong and effective players. Their secondary can be had at times (Peters has been more bad Peters this year) but a unique scheme makes it work most of the time. The Ravens are a high-variance team by design because more often than not they will hit the high.

Random:

2.) Buffalo Bills  =  13-3  (501-375)

Overall: Man, the Bills ended strong. They had a great record midway through the season but didn't ahve a point differential to go along with it. After a dominant end to the season, that is no longer a problem. The Bills haven't been challenged in a while. They are the first Bills team to score 500 points and did it with ease. Best for them the defense improved significantly as the season went on.

Offense: It's still so shocking how well Josh Allen played without really dropping off. He started great, we all waited for the run to end, and it just didn't. He's so much calmer back there and has really done well to build such quick rapport with Diggs. They still turn it over a bit too much (19th highest rate) but are so efficient otherwise (#5 offense DVOA, #3 passing). This is just a really good offense.

Defense: The Bills rank #12 in defensive DVOA, which is good. They are #7 in weighted DVOA, indicating they've ended the season stronger than they started, as they start coming close to resembling the defense from last year. Still they aren't at that level but White and the secondary have gotten better as the year has gone on. Their biggest strength was forcing turnovers (2nd highest rate) which is a good strength when opponents may have to play a lot of catch-up.

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  14-2  (473-362)

Overall: The Chiefs are the 2020 version of the 2009 Colts, a team that went 14-2 (14-0 in games they tried to win) but due to a slew of clsoe games and late season resting their point differential wasn't so great. Certainly, it doesn't seem like the Chiefs escaped that many games - but they had seven straight wins under seven points, which is astounding. The Chiefs are a great team, but they are far from unbeatable.

Offense: The Chiefs ended the year #2 in DVOA, #2 in passing DVOA and #1 in yds/dirve. Where they've really struggled is shockingly in teh red zone. Their inability to score in the red zone was so confounding throughout the season. The hope for the Chiefs is they were more just playing around trying random shit and in the playoffs they';ll go more straight to normal plays. Maybe that's the cause, but to me if they get picked off, its a 23-19 type loss.

Defense: On paper, and in my memory, KC seems like a good defense. They didn't give up that many points - though did have a habit of allowing a late TD to make the game seem closer. They rank in the 20s in DVOA, hurt by a 31st ranked rush defense. They force a decent amount of turnovers, so much like the Bills they can use that to their advantage when teams are forced to throw to catch up.

Ranking the NFC Playoff Field

7.) Chicago Bears  =  8-8  (372-370)

Overall: I could be underrating them if you take their results from just Trubisky games, where they went 5-2. Of course, they also felt he was doing so bad in those games early on that they benched Mitch and no one really batted an eye. The Bears are the Bears, a middling offense and a better than middling defense. When the league expanded to 14 playoff teams, this is exactly the team people did not want getting a 7th playoff seed. But here we are.

Offense: It's interesting how consistent the Bears are in their below-averageness on offense. They are #25 in overall DVOA, and #23 passing and #25 rushing, but only #6 in variance, meaning they are consistently one of the bottom-10 offenses week to week. They turn the ball over a lot, and are #31 in yards per drive. Granted, maybe all these numbers are better when you just take the Trubisky games, but hte low variance would indicate otherwise. The one bright spot is David Montgomery having a nice stretch to end the season.

Defense: On the other hand.... the Bears defense is about as good as ever (aside from their few top-of-the-league years), ranking #8 in overall DVOA, and #4 against the run, and in the Top-10 in both yards and points allowed per drive. They don't force too many turnovers, which is a stark difference from the Bears great defenses of old, but they also played the toughest set of offenses in the NFL.

Random Fact:

6.) Washington Football Team  =  7-9  (335-329)

Overall: So, while they are under .500, we should draw a distinction between this team and the two prior recent sub-.500 playoff teams. Washington ended the season +6 in point differential, with one unit that is great (defense ended #3 in DVOA), but admittedly one awful unit (#32 offense!). The 2010 Seahawks were a -92, and the 2014 Panthers were -35. These Redskins are not those teams, and both of those teams won a playoff game.

Offense: Oof, this is going to be rough. The Redskins are #32 in DVOA overall and passing (decent at running, which doesn't help in 2020). If you want a slight bright spot, they are better in non-Haskins games but in reality not appreciably so. The other bright spot could be that Gibson and McLaurin will be playing.

Defense: Well, this is more fun. The Football Team is #3 overall, #2 against the pass, #3 in yds allowed/drive and #3 in pts allowed/drive. Their variance isn't the best but they are a top defense in the league - that's generally what happens when you get Ron Rivera behind a talented set of players. They are healthy as well. Their only hope, be it the Wild Card game or others, is that defense balling out. They have that capability, for sure.

Random Fact:

5.) Los Angeles Rams  =  10-6  (372-296)

Overall: God bless the Rams - they were the only team in the NFL to give up less than 300 points ending the year at 296. Of course, that is the highest total for the #1 scoring defense, and with the league going to a 17-game schedule next year we may never see such a team again (probably an overstatement). Anyway, the Rams are a great defense, a middling offense that looks nice but never scores that much - again, the NFC version of the Colts.

Offense: I don't know if Goff will play - reports are very ambivalent on that potential. I also don't know how much it matters, as the offense under Wofford looked basically the same. They ended the season #10 in DVOA, but that seems to way overstate their ability. By drive stats they are below average in everything - #19 in yards/drive, #25 in pts/drive, and bottom-10 in turnovers/drive. Again, not really sure how they ended up #10 in overall DVOA - they are #4 in rushing (their RBBC is great) and they run a lot, I guess?!

Defense: Now for more fun things. The Rams defense is great, arguably best in the league. They finished #3 in DVOA, #4 against the pass, #3 against the run, and #1 in both pts and yds allowed per drive. They have a giant stud at both levels with Donald and Ramsey and their defense is centered around those two being superhuman and then letting the rest of their team cook. Guys like Floyd, Brockers and Troy Hill have been great all year.

Random Fact:

4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  =  11-5  (492-355)

Overall: Unsurprisingly, the Buccaneers took advantage of a tissue-soft schedule to finish it up and turn what seemed like a season on the rocks at 7-5 to a 11-5 and "peaking at the right time" headlines. This is all accurate, but it is stark that the Buccaneers are a beautiful 1-5 against playoff teams (the one win though was their stomp of the Packers) and 10-0 against non-playoff teams. Either way, their offense is certainly peaking at the right time.

Offense: Brady has been Brady for the most part, unless he's pressured and then he drops to a Trubisky-esque player. Mike Evan's status will be interesting to watch, though Brady has now developed a better rapport with Godwin than earlier in the year. Their offense ended #5 in passing DVOA and #10 in rushing DVOA, but fairly high in variance - no surprise there. On a per-drive basis its a bit up and down in the top-half of the league - aside from a league-low fumble rate. One weird aspect is almost a historic year in drawing pass interference penalties - something that often goes down in the playoffs.

Defense: The Bucs defense was the best in the league for the first half of the season but fell off, specifically their passing defense. Still ending the year in the Top-10 in most standard and advanced stats. Their defense relies on the blitz quite often which isn't necessarily bad - and as shown against the first Green Bay matchup can work really well, but it is a risky way to play.

Random Fact:

3.) Seattle Seahawks  =  12-4  (459-371)

Overall: Remember when the Seahawks were riding high with an offense that was on pace to set TD records, but a defense that was going to give up 5,000+ yards? Well, a lot has changed. The Seahawks remained good throughout but the way they did that turned on its head fully. By the end of the season their offense was scattershot (Wilson didn't come close to any records) but the defense improved tremendously, specifically on pass rush and pass coverage. No idea if that makes the late-season Seahawks better or worse than the early-season vintage.

Offense: The Seahawks still ended up #6 in DVOA and #6 in passing offense, and #9 in rushing offense. All that is good, but they were better earlier on. Their OL fell off dramatically, and overtime more teams were able to adjust to Metcalf as well. The Seahawks are a good offense, capable of being a great one, but they'll need their OL to play better to unlock it.

Defense: The Seahawks defense ended the year #16 in DVOA, but #11 in weighted DVOA, indicating their improvement over the season. Some of it was the return of Jamal Adams, but also bringing in Carlos Dunlap and just get better most consistent performance from their defensive line in general.

Random Fact: 

2.) New Orleans Saints  =  12-4  (482-337)

Overall: The Saints finished with 12+ wins for a third straight year, with a top offense (by the numbers) and a defense that after a slow start has been dominant for 10+ weeks now. The Saints are a very good, balanced team. Of course, every other game or so it looks like Drew Brees has lost the ability to throw the ball - or more pointedly Sean Payton thinks he's lost hte ability to throw the ball. Either way, the Saints likely last run in the Brees era (rumblings are growing he's retiring) has the chance to be great but a lot will be dependent on which Brees we get.

Offense: The Saints ended the year #7 in offensive DVOA, but surprisingly that was driven by their running game, which ended up #1 - of course this includes their Taysom Hill games. On a per-drive basis the Saints were not all that great in yards but far better in pts/drive - some of that driven by their strong red zone play (having Taysom Hill helps a bit more in the red zone), and some is they have the best average starting field position. The team's run game is still very strong and despite how bad he may look at times, Brees and hte offense is still able to move the ball.

Defense: Why do the Saints have the league's best average starting field position? Well, their #2 defense by DVOA (#3 against the pass, #2 against the run) has a lot to do with that. They force a decent amount of 3-and-outs, have the second best interception rate, and are good in the red zone. Basically this is a very good defense that if anything got better as the season went on. If you want one area to key on as a negative, they had the worst variance - some of that is their improvement over time but it speaks to a defense that is a worldbeater at its best and merely average at its worst.

Rank:

1.) Green Bay Packers  =  13-3  (509-369)

Overall: Well, well, well, the Packers 13-3 record in 2020 seems a bit different than it did in 2019 doesn't it. That team was one of the least impressive 13-3 teams in recent memory. Now, this team isn't a particularly impressive one, but if you give someone the stat sheet of the team no one would be shocked they went 13-3. Rodgers (along with Adams and Jones) is the key, but the defense too got better as the year went on. The Packers are very, very good and for the first time since 2011 have the #1 seed to boot.

Offense: Yeah, it's almost boring to talk about how good the Packers offense was. #1 in overall DVOA, #1 in passing, #5 in rushing, #1 in pts/drive (far ahead of anyone else), lowest turnover rate, good in the red zone. The running game is the key, quietly powering that team to where Rodgers hasn't even had to throw it so often. This is the closest thing to the 2004 Colts as I've seen. Now, of course there is a huge question mark about the loss of David Bakhtiari, but Rodgers is good enough to overcome it and the Packers can get worse and still be a top-2 offense.

Defense: The defense is also boring to talk about since they are perfectly average in about everything. #17 overall DVOA, #15 against the pass, #18 against the run, #14 yds/drive, #17 pts/drive. They have trended up over the course of the season, particularly in the secondary. One of the Smiths is still a dominant rusher, and while Preston Smith hasn't been as good this year, Rashan Gary picked up the pace. The last piece was having Jaire Alexander turn into a good facsimile of a shutdown corner. Everything is primed for this team.

Ranking the Wild Card Games

6.) (N7) Chicago Bears (8-8)  @  (N2) New Orleans Saints (12-4)  (Sun 4:40 - CBS)

These two played an OT game earlier this year that to be honest the Bears should have won. More odd was that the Bears started Nick Foles in that game. That said, the Saints team today is better than that group, particularly defensively as they started to really get better on that side of the ball as the season went on. I just don't think the Bears pose a realistic challenge in New Orleans compared to what they did in Chicago. Also, it will be depressing to have a playoff game in New Orleans - potentially one of the last games of Brees's career - without fans.

5.) (N6) Los Angeles Rams (10-6)  @  (N3) Seattle Seahawks (12-4)  (Sat 4:40 - FOX)

If Goff plays, I would put this at #3, but it seems more and more like he won't. That is sad, as this has turned into a nice little rivalry since McVay came on. Of course, before that it was a nasty little rivalry in the Fisher days. The one constant is the Rams defense has always been able to play fairly well against Wilson - especially this year. The Rams are not set-up so well though if they have to go with their backup, and by all accounts that will be the case. I get he was viable against Arizona, but playoffs on the road in Seattle (even without a crowd) will be very different.

4.) (N5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5)  @  (N4) Washington Football Team (7-9)  (Sat 8:15 - NBC)

There are two outcomes for this game, one is a Bucs blowout against an overmatched opponent that puts this as the least watchable game of the weekend. The other, however, is Wasington is able to pressure Brady, something none of the Bucs recent opponents had much ability to do, and Brady as he has done the last two years, greatly drops his level due to the rush. That leaves us with a highly entertaining game. So I'm splitting the middle here.

3.) (A6) Cleveland Browns (11-5)  @  (A3) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)  (Sun 8:15 - NBC)

I know many are excited to see the Browns in the playoffs, and largely ranking this game third is for that reason. That said, the Browns nearly lost to a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers team and lost 38-7 to a Roethlisberger-led Steelers team, and haven't won in Pittsburgh in 17 years. That all said, it is fun to have the Browns in the playoffs!

2.) (A7) Indianapolis Colts (11-5)  @  (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-3)  (Sat 1:00 - CBS)

The Colts have shown little ability to beat good teams, aside from their wins against Tennessee and the Green Bay comeback. That said, they are rarely blown out - aside from their covid-related loss to the Titans. The Bills have been blowing out everyone recently, but the Colts defense is a stiffer challenge. Having Rivers back in teh playoffs is nice as well. Best part is there will be a very limited amount of fans in the building. It's only 6000 or so, but glad a few fans can see the first Bills home playoff game in 25 years.

1.) (A5) Baltimore Ravens (11-5)  @  (A4) Tennessee Titans (11-5)  (Sun 1:00 - CBS)

Finally, this is a great game. First, its a rematch of an OT game earlier this year. Then its a rematch of last year's Divisional Round upset - which I'm sure Lamar and Co would like to give some payback for. Finally, its a rematch of a set of playoff games in the way back, as the Titans and Ravens met in the playoffs in 2000 (24-10 Ravens win), 2003 (20-17 Titans win) and 2008 (13-10 Ravens win). Weirdly the home team has lost all four playoff meetings - including three games where the home team (loser) had a large yardage advantage. No one playing this week has any connection to 2008 aside from John Harbaugh as coach, but it is nice for some nostalgia here.

Award Predictions - limiting to MVP & Coach of the Year

MVP

1.) Aaron Rodgers  (QB, GB)

2.) Patrick Mahomes  (QB, KC)

3.) Josh Allen  (QB, BUF)

I still think Mahomes is the best player in football, but it is impossible to deny Aaron Rodgers the MVP for that season. 

Coach of the Year

1.) Matt LaFleur  (Green Bay)

2.) Ron Rivera  (Washington)

3.) Brian Flores  (Miami)

It's a weird year with no clear favorite here. There's no team that jumped up a huge amount of wins. Washington obliquely fits, making the playoffs after a 3-13 season last year - but I don't know if the world is ready for a coach of a 7-9 team to win this award. Especially since Rivera has already won it twice. I can see some momentum for him though due to him battling cancer throughout the season, which I wouldn't be opposed to. For Flores, he was the easy leader in this until the Dolphins choked away a playoff appearance. If you could give the Washington team Miami's record it becomes easy. 

Ultimately, I think LaFleur deserves it almost more for what he's done over two years, but particularly his offense making Rodgers (and Devante) into a hydra monster again. LaFleur came to Green Bay when it was seen as a team fully on the downside, having wasted years of Rodgers prime. His changes turned them around immediately, and while his team didn't have a better record this year, so much around them has. They were one of the worst 13-3 teams ever last year, and by a lot of underlying metrics they should have done worse this year. Instead, they played like a great team that fully deserved its 13-3 record, with LaFleur's offense as the centerpiece.

NFL 2020: Final Power Rankings, pt 1: The Non-Playoff Teams

Tier I - The "Great QB Debate" Duo

32.) New York Jets  =  2-14  (243-457)

31.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  1-15  (306-492)

I still firmly believe the Jets are a worse team, or at least were for the 2020 season. They ended the season on a high note, and the Jags nearly backed their way into having as bad a point differential, but in the end, a -214 is pretty shockingly bad, as is the 243 points in the year of our Lord 2020. If we spin ahead (and I tried to keep the rankings purely on 2020 performance), the differences get more stark, with the Jags having more cap space, a few more higher profile young players, and the rights on Trevor Lawrence. All in all, really great awful showings for our worst two teams, who were more or less the worst in the league from Week 3 or so onwards, after it became more clear the Jags Week 1 win was a fluke. They join the 2001 Panthers as a team that went 1-15 after starting 1-0 - those Panthers ended up in the Super Bowl two years later and have generally been competitive since.

Tier II - The "Cycle of Lower-than-Mediocrity" Duo

30.) Detroit Lions  =  5-11  (377-519)

29.) Cincinnati Bengals  =  4-11-1  (311-424)

I started watching football with some passion in about 2001 or so. The Lions and Bengals have consistently been bad from that period. Both had some level of run being competent - the Bengals from 2011-2015 (or really 2005-2016 if you want to be generous), and the Lions from 2011-2016 - but its nice for both to take teir spot. The Lions sneakily had the second worst scoring differential in NFL history - and given they may want to trade Stafford they are very clsoe to hitting a full reset. For the Bengals, somuch will be dependent on Burrow's recovery. For 2020, they had some intriguing defensive players in Jessie Bates and Carl Lawson. They need serious weaponry and OL help, but at least they, potentially, have their QB.

Tier III - The "Great QB Debates, Pt. 2" Duo

28.) Denver Broncos  =  5-11  (323-446)
27.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  4-11-1  (334-418)

Both these two teams were for the most part competitive in their individual games (Philadelphia more so). There is an infrastructure there, though the Eagles have mostly old players. The big question will be do either make moves at QB (putting aside the Wentz question). Drew Lock was very up and down, with a few positives that make him more intriguing than his numbers (ability to avoid sacks, good deep throwing), while Hurts was probably worse than some of the hype (fumbled a lot). I don't think either should be seen as a firm starter but both teams have enough holes you wouldn't blame them for targeting elsewhere in teh draft.

Tier IV - The "Is this fixable?" Duo

26.) Houston Texans  =  4-12  (384-464)

25.) Carolina Panthers  =  5-11  (350-402)

In theory the Texans have a great QB. Actually that undersells it - it is astonishing how good Watson is despite his team crumbling around him. Watson is phenomenal and I hope they get a coach that can stand back and let him be him and focus on the rest of the team. The problem for Houston is how far over the cap they are, despite trading away expensive players - and their lack of draft picks. For the Panthers, the question becomes QB - the team around that QB is actually fairly decent. If you could trade Watson to the Panthers they would be pretty fantastic. For Carolina, the other fear is Joe Brady very likely gets snapped up as a head coach, and while Matt Rhule is a 'program builder', that would still leave a lot of questions around how him to do it.

Tier V - The "Probably overrated bounceback teams" Trio

24.) Dallas Cowboys  =  6-10  (395-473)

23.) New York Giants  =  6-10  (280-357)

22.) Atlanta Falcons  =  4-12  (396-414)

All three of these teams have some nice elements to point to from this season. For the Cowboys, even without Dak their skill position players remained strong, even overcoming for the first time a while a sub-par line. The defense is a mess, and ultimately it cratered their season, but if they can bring Dak back they could resemble at the very least the 2019 Cowboys. For the Giants, the big question will remain Daniel Jones - is someone that turnover prone really a candidate to turn it around. The defense is storng and should get better under Patrick Graham's scheme in a second year. For the Falcons, to be 4-12 and outscored by 18 points is ludicrous (helps when you win one game 44-6), and they'll always be perennially overrated heading into seasons. It does seem they were competitive enough that they'll hold onto Matt Ryan. I can see all three being trendy sleepers - especially Atlanta given their point differential - but the trendy sleeper rarely seems to be the optimal choice.

Tier VI - The "West Coast Dreaming" Trio

21.) Las Vegas Raiders  =  8-8  (434-478)

20.) San Francisco 49ers  =  6-10  (376-390)

19.) Los Angeles Chargers  =  7-9  (384-426)

What a weird year all three of these teams had. The Raiders with their fast start and slow end - amazingly having paid little attention to defense throughout the entire Gruden run, their defense continues to be a disaster. I hope Gruden doesn't feel the need to switch up Carr because that offense is fine. For the 49ers, they have a question at QB and while I think its convenient people to slam on Garoppolo, the offense definitely does not have the same upside with Mullens or Beathard. The defense should return to great as soon as next year, but it does seem they are about to lose Robert Saleh. For the Chargers, I am somewhat surprised they fired Anthony Lynn after the 4-0 finish (and if I'm another team I would take a chance on him), but they have their QB and good pieces around him. The injuries year after year are a sign of changes needed in teh medical department however.

Tier VII - The "Who knows for 2021" Duo

18.) Minnesota Vikings  =  7-9  (430-475)

17.) New England Patriots  =  7-9  (326-353)

The Vikings offense had anywhere between the second and fourth best running back in the league, and a dominant season from a rookie WR - it's sad that their defense absolutely cratered and unlike any prior Mike Zimmer team, did not get better at all through the season. They were injured and the secondary players were young, so maybe they turn around next year. What's good for them is a standard defensive regression should bring them back to competency. For the Patriots, same thing but on the offense side. I do wonder how much of the season was derailed by Cam Newton's positive COVID test, and immedaite drop in play. The guy who lit up Seattle showing a great throwing ability in Week 2 was nowhere to be found just four weeks later. It will be interesting to see whwat they do at QB, as it sure seems Stidham is very much not th answer as well. I still have some 'In Bill We Trust' belief, especially since they were missing a good half dozen contributors due to COVID opt-outs and have oodles of cap space.

Tier VIII - The "Clear thinking, please!?" Duo

16.) Arizona Cardinals  =  8-8  (410-367)

15.) Miami Dolphins  =  10-6  (404-338)

Both teams had rough ends (1-2 finishes) that cost them playoff spots, but to be honest I'm somewhat glad. Neither team is really that great (though Arizona isn't any worse than Chicago) and both have significant areas to improve. For the Cards, it is somewhat personnel, but more just play design and action - in that they are really bad at it. The Cards offense got stale early and outside of Kyler to Nuk it was fairly messy throughout. For the Dolphins, I honestly think they should take a look seriously at if relacing Tua makes sense. They can probably fetch a 1st round pick for him, and they have the #3 pick just sitting there. Either way, they are set up well but this team fluked their way into 10 wins off the back of a stout defense and a lot of return TDs/turnovers. They need to upgrade their OL, their weapons and build a pipeline for when they start losing high price fee agents. Both are good teams, neither were truly playoff worth for their conference (WFT aside) - and I do hope they take the right learnings from the season.

My Top-20 TV Shows of 2020, #5-1

5.) The New Pope (HBO)

I don't think I was looking forward to any show this year more than The New Pope. It's predecessor as a show, The Young Pope, was my #1 show in 2017 - a perfect mix of an auteur behind the camera, and brilliance in front of it. The New Pope was definitely not as good as The Young Pope, but even the pale imitation was such a brilliant piece of art - one that asked more questions, explored more angles, and deftly concluded (one would think) this amazing story. The one undeniable success of The New Pope was its brilliant uniqueness. No show looked better, looked more like high cinema, than this - be it the image of the crippled child being lifted to heaven, or various images in and around Brannix's compound. I do wish Jude Law was awake for more of it - but what they held back in screentime they more than made up for it in bombast.

When Law wakes up, the show did kick into hyperdrive and did so in such an interesting way - pulling Pope Pius and Voiello - sworn enemies in The Young Pope - together. The scene with Voiello scheming how to reintroduce Lenny to the public, you get this small smile by Law, with the EDM theme from Season 1 playing in the background, and right there in that moment, it was pure magic. As was the ending with Lenny getting crowd-waved in death inside St. Peter's, or the reveal that Esther was behind the terrorism after being ruined to a life of debasement. The show will always remain one of the most thought provoking, unique and beautiful pieces of television made, even if the plot was only half pace for much of this instances run. 

4.) The Last Dance (ESPN)

It's been a while since I had a true documentary on the list, and while there is one still to come on this list, The Last Dance to me was the successor, in terms of ESPN's documentary-making largesse, to OJ: Made in America (my #3 back in 2016). This show was brought early due to a lack of live sports, and while it was showcasing a story so well known (the brilliance of the Jordan Bulls) it did so in an unendingly, and ultimately successful way. Yes, there were some criticisms, be it Jordan's involvement in the doc, and the hyperactive storytelling that bounced all across teh Bulls in Jordan's era with a loose connection to the 1997-98 season. On the first point, without Jordan this doc doesn't get made, and without his production team having great access in that season we miss a lot of brilliance. For the second, ultimately I thought it was a fine way to structure teh documentary.

Anyway, for the documentary itself, while it didn't uncover any new ground, it highlighted just how larger than life Jordan and the Bulls were. It settled old scores like with Isaiah and others. It gave us moments to last a lifetime on tue internet. It gave us so many great Pippen, Rodman and Jackson stories. It didn't leave anything uncovered in that run. It helps when you have a cavalcade of interesting, entertaining stars at its center, but overall it gave it a narrative throughline that worked so well. I do hope this isn't the last time ESPN tries something like this with a deserving story - even if so few stories and ultimately so few personalities will match the Jordan Bulls and his airness.

3.) The Good Lord Bird (Showtime)

Man, what a show. Ethan Hawke's brilliant portrayal of the abolitionist John Brown was so electric, so dynamic. You can say he was overacting, but I have no time for that - he lived that role, embodying the electricifying, unending bundle of energy that was John Brown. Of course, what made the show really work was all the secondary characters, from Onion, the young freed slave, who acts as the narrator, to Frederick Douglass, brilliantly 'portrayed' by Daveed Diggs, to everyone else. The show didn't showcase slavery so much as it spotlighted the abolitionist movement, the somehwat curious reasons that drove a lot of white abolotionists to take on arms, and the incredible struggles that faced them.

It was a small story but one with such resonant impact, both spotlighting the immediate run-up to the Civil War, and the struggle people like Brown faced to gaining trust, gaining time with leading luminaries - even on the pro-Abolition side (see: any interaction with Frederick Douglass). The show ended not holding back at all, showing the path that drove John Brown to organizing the raid on Harper's Ferry, and how John Brown ultimately died in what seemed like short term for naught. Hawke's involvement was crucial into making this a series and I hope this is the start of other actors taking it into their own hands to tell stories like these.

2.) The Great, S1 (Hulu)

I'm so glad that this show is not just a one-and-done and will be back to tell more of the story of Catherine the Great taking over from Czar Peter in this most briliant way. In maybe the greatest version of Drunk History, The Great so expertly tells the tale of Catherine going to Russian Court and slowly but surely twisting the head of the Russian Empire, with so much damn fun along the way. From every scene at court, every interaction between Peter and Orlov or Valamentov or the other brilliantly crafted Pols is just magic. As is any moment between Catherine and Marial or her lover. The actual plot is often so besides the point (anyway it is only very, very loosely based in historical fact), this is just about getting time with these incredible people, huzzah!

The writing is so sharp, but more than that the acting is so brilliant. Hoult is so damn good as Peter, mixing arrogance, comedy and aloofness at a level I haven't seen since Jude Law in The Young Pope. Elle Fanning is even better in her first adult role, so greatly playing both doting wife and empress with a cunning, smart, sharp wit and brain. The various maidens and court hands and doctors and the rest are all just, well, great. To me, this was the funniest show of the year, and the best outright new comedy series in quite some time. I can't wait to see what they have in store for a second season as we get closer and closer to Catherine pulling off her coup. 

1.) Tiger King

Yes, its a bit passe. Sure, maybe if it came out in a normal year at a normal time, maybe it doesn't get the attachment it now has. But man I can't lie that Tiger King was the most enteratining, most interseting, and ultimately for me, most captivating piece of television I saw this year. I obliquely knew the story based on a New Yorker article a few years back, but even then this went above and beyond the basic story of Joe Exotic's feud with Carole Baskin, to simultaneously shining a light on the Big Cat industry, to uncovering layer after layer after layer of intrigue. I don't know what the moment was when I realized this is something special - but it was either the episode centered aroudn the murder of Don (I'm fully on #CarolDidIt), or the introduction of real-life ex-mob boss Mario Tabraue as an amateur Big Cat hunter. But it all crested on the episode that dove headfirst into the feud, highlighted with Joe's song 'Here Kitty, Kity' which was the single best two minutes of comedy I've seen in years. It was all perfect.

Over the years, this list has focused on entertainment over everything - from putting Fargo at #1 in 2014, to People v. OJ in 2016 and Succession in 2018. Those may not have been the 'best' showcases for the medium (though I would argue they all were), they were just incredibly entertaining and invigorating to watch. Tiger King was right in that lane. I wrote a post at the time of the 10 most incredible moments in Tiger King, and just looking at that list (Joe having a fake EMT jacket when tending to his worker who was attacked, the crazy room the leg-less park manager was being interviewed from, Doc Antle having an open harem, the fact the campaign manager was oddly sedate) and all of it just puts a smile on my face. In many ways, it was the story of American capitalism taken to the extreme, but to me, it was just a beautiful portrayal of a weird underbelly in our country.

Tiger King was so omnipresent I think the world lost sense of just how well made it was, how each episode presented one layer after another - them waiting on introducing certain characters and certain storypoints until later in the show's run. It was all so well put together, openly there were no 'good' main characters, but that's true of a lot of great shows, from The Wire to even say Succession. There were no good characters from a moral or ethical sense, but there were great ones from an entertainment sense. I'll never forget watching Tiger King - again it being the first thing I binged post-lockdown will cement its place - and I will never not be wondering who it was singing "Here Kitty, Kitty"