2019 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Picks

(A5) Buffalo Bills (10-6)  @  (A4) Houston Texans (10-6)

Sat 4:35  -  ESPN  |  HOU -3.0

State of the Teams: For the Texans, getting Watt back will be huge - assuming he is something real and not just a shell of his former incredible self. The other key has been Will Fuller, who should play but might be on limited snaps. On the whole, the Texans need these frontline guys because they haven't been able to get any production from their depth. The Bills are fairly healthy, and playing well. Allen has settled into a more consistent version of the offense. Singletary has been a strong running back. The team has most of their key guys healthy and ready, a rarity for any team this time of year.

Matchup: This is a nice matchup of opposites. The Bills strong defense can force a lot of three and outs, which has been a weak point for the Texans throughout the year. The Bills are uniquely set-up to win that side of the matchup, also doing well against top WRs (though Hopkins did pretty well against White). The Bills excel at limiting great plays, having probably the league's best safety tandem, and the Texans rely on those. The other side of the matchup is weakness against weakness. The only real strength on teh Texans side is forcing turnovers, as they can't really generate consistent pressure (assuming Watt isn't 100%). Of course, the Bills have been great at limiting turnovers since mid-way through the season in waht seems to be a very concerted effort. Most advanced stats would point to the Bills being able to win both matchups.

Interesting Note: The Texans are 1-3 in the playoffs under Bill O'Brien, including 1-2 in this exact spot (4:30pm Saturday Wild Card game - aka the Texans special). The one win was also against the 2016 Raiders who were starting Connor Cook after Derek Carr broke his leg.

The Pick: The Texans are a high-variance team which in theory should help them in the playoffs, but being at home you don't want to be truly high variance - that skill is better for an underdog that needs to play up. The Bills are a bad matchup for Houston, able to stop what the Texans do best, and not do what the Texans stop the most. To me, the O'Brien Texans are going to continue their playoff irrelevantness.

Bills 20  Texans 17  (BUF +3)

(A6) Tennessee Titans (9-7)  @  (A3) New England Patriots (12-4)

Sat 8:15  -  CBS  |  NE -5.0

State of the Teams: For the Titans, is not easy to overstate just how good that offense has been with Ryan Tannehill in charge. 3rd in Weighted offensive DVOA, with the best statistical passing game this side of Drew Brees. 30 points per game. All of it. Of course, their defense isn't any better in this stretch than it was when Mariota played, but the offense is real. There is some things that are going to fall off eventually (3rd down offense, deep passing efficiency), but there's no guarantee when that drop will happen. On the Patriots side, they are relatively healthy, but the effectiveness of Edelman will be critical. He was poor against Miami, but some of that was due to double coverage. The OL is playing a bit better and the defense is healthy, if as a whole not as effective. A lot of how you feel about New England comes down to how much of their strong performance is just due to the abject thrash they played early on.

Matchup: It may not seem as directly apparent as the first matchup, but there are some interesting contrasts in opposites here too. The Titans were the league's best red zone team (in terms of converting chances into TDs), while being the 2nd worst defensively. New England was 26th on offense and 4th on defense. The Titans rarely turn it over (especially true under Tannehill) while the Patriots feast on turnovers. The Titans offense can take advantage of the relative weakness of the Patriots defense (rushing), but I really worry that the Titans defense is jsut perfect for the Patriots to abuse. The Titans are not good against running backs, and are truly bad at generating pressure. Unless we get some Vrabel-esque genius ways of generating pressure, Brady should get more time than normal.

Interesting Note: Over the last two seasons, the Patriots are 2-4 against ex-Belichick assistants, with teh wins being Week 1 against Houston last year (27-20), and Week 2 against prime-tanking Miami (43-0). In that span, they've lost to Matt Patricia (26-10), Bill O'Brien (28-22), Brian Flores (27-24) and Mike Vrabel (34-10).

The Pick: The Titan are better than their record, and the Patriots as currently constituted are worse. It says something the Patriots are 12-4 against the worst schedule in teh NFL. That all said, with cold, rainy weather expected, turnovers could play a large role, and I trust the Patriots to generate them more than the Titans, and a QB who has melted down in Foxboro before (albeit, in a previous football lifetime) to prevent them.

Titans 20  Patriots 27  (NE -5.0)

 (N6) Minnesota Vikings (10-6)  @  (N3) New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Sun 1:05  -  FOX  |  NO -7.5

State of the Teams: The Saints are hot, obviously. Aside from the truly bizarre loss to Atlanta (26-9, Brees sacked six times) their only loss since Brees came back was the 46-48 loss to the niners. Brees has been incredible in the second half, I truly believe he is better off for missing five games. He will have to be to hold up across the playoffs given the injuries to Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins on the defensive side. It makes it easier for other teams to key on Cam Jordan. The Vikings of course are struggling with a few injuries as well, with Mackensie Alexander now out and Dalvin Cook maybe not at 100%. Getting Cook back will be key as he helps tremendously in the passing game, and will be crucial against a Saints team that is susceptible against running backs.

Matchup: On the whole, the Saints are the better team. Their offense clearly has the matchup edge against teh Vikings defense. Their OL is great, Brees is awesome against the blitz, and Michael Thomas should abuse Xavier Rhodes or whoever they attempt to put on him. That all said, there are a few areas the Vikings can look to compete on. First, the Vikings have a clear red zone advantage, being a better red zone offense and defense than the Saints, and being better defensively than the Saints are offensively. Also, the Vikings are very good at play action, which the Saints sometimes struggle against - the Saints are much better defensively against teams they know will pass, but see what happens against the Titans or 49ers?

Interesting Note: Kirk Cousins may be awful on Monday Night football, but he's perfectly good at 1pm starts, going 35-20-1 in his career, with a 99/39 TD/INT split and a 98.7 passer rating. Also, he's been perfectly fine on Sunday Night football, going 6-1 in his career (stunning, I know).

The Pick: I think the Saints win the game because their end-line talent is just better and matches up well, but the red zone advantages and specific play-selection advantages on the Minnesota side do give me pause, and have me thinking the Vikings can keep it closer than expected. The Saints have been so on-mark lately they may find it a bit contentious if forced into a few field goals unexpectedly.

Vikings 24  Saints 30  (MIN +7.5)

(N5) Seattle Seahawks (11-5)  @  (N4) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)

Sun 4:40  -  NBC  |  SEA -1.5

State of the Teams: It's nice when you want to think about, analyze and then pick a game for neither team to be healthy in any way. The Seahawks should get Quandre Diggs back, but are still going to be without their LT, their top running backs (and Marshawn did nothing in that game to show me he's in any way back), and other injuries to various receivers. On th other side, holy god are the Eagles injured. I guess Miles Sanders is supposed to play, and Lane Johnson will be back, but no Brandin Brooks, no umpteen receivers, probably no Zach Ertz. Essentially neither team is healthy at all. Both sides have shown an ability to play off script or without these top weapons, but in different ways. The Eagles have gotten more confined, more limited, but still effective at moving the ball. The Seahawks have basically become even more backyard football style.

Matchup: Honestly, a lot of the matchups favor the Eagles here - again with the giant caveat that all season-long stats could be useless given injuries. To start, the Eagles are very good on both 3rd down (4th overall) and red zone (#3 offense, #14 defense), while the Seahawks are either middling (16th on 3rd downs), or bad (26th red zone defense). The Eagles defensive strength is against the run, which the Seahawks are probably not great in with Carson gome, but will probably stick to for far too long. The Eeagles OL may be limited with Johnson gimpy and Brooks out, but the Seahawks pass rush is middling. The Eagles don't turn it over, while the Seahawks rely on them. Now again, all of these may be useless, but there we go.

Interesting Note: There have been 13 teams to win a division with under 10 wins in the NFL since the 2002 realignment. Those teams went 9-4 in their home Wild Card round games, and in all but one of those matchups were playing a team with 10 or more wins.

The Pick: Look, I probably cound have looked for stats that favor Seattle as well (they should win their passing game vs. Eagles pass defense matchup) but you don't have to look to hard to see where the Eagles are better, and the biggest mismatch may be on the coaching side between the Eagles strong game management against Brian Schottenheimer's run-run-pass reliance. What gives me a lot of pause is the Eagles four-game win streak came exclusively against the NFC East, but I just think a lot of the underlying and matchup stats point in one direction. As does history with doubting sub-10-win division winners.

Seahawks 17  Eagles 20  (PHI +1.5)