6.) Minnesota Vikings (10-6 = 407-303)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 407 ptf (8th), 303 pta (5th), 5.656 ydf (16th), 5,465 yda (14th)
= Outsiders: 15.4% team (10th), 4.6% off (10th), -9.9% def (7th), 0.8% st (14th)
Offense: The Vikings offense on paper is good but not great, which is nice as it lines up perfectly with how you would think they would perform. 10th by DVOA passing, 15th rushing, 11th on yards per drive, 10th on red zone efficiency. Basically they are a bottom-end but deserving playoff caliber offense. Cousins cooled off slightly towards the end of the year, partly due to natural regression, and partly to Adam Thielen's injuries. In a deep NFC playoff field, being somewhat middling on turnover rate and other stats just doesn't stand out. Dalvin Cook had a beautiful 1,500 yard-for-scrimmage season, with a 80% catch rate to boot, and he might be crucial as a check-down option against the top pass rushes that the NFC playoff field can boast. They really need Thielen to be healthy and productive - his numbers were shockingly low with 30 catches in the partial 10 games he played. That won't cut it. Rank: 5th
Defense: The Vikings defense is essentially a lower-variance, better version of their offense. Good but not truly great at anything aside from forcing turnovers (3rd best rate in the league). The secondary has been a jumble and had consistency issues, but their trio of safeties (Smith, Harris, Sendejo) were good in cleaning things up and snagging 11 interceptions. The front-seven is the strength, pushing them to 48 sacks, and a Top-10 ranking agaisnt both the run and pass - driven a lot by strong pass defense numbers against running backs and TEs. This is not the unit that was so good in 2017, primarily because of the issues in the secondary, but their front is about as good at pushign the pocket and getting consistent pressure, led by their superstar Danielle Hunter and his 14.5 sacks. Rank: 2nd
Interesting Note: This is the 10th time the Minnnesota Vikings have made the playoffs in the last 22 years ('98, '99, '00, '04, '08, '09, '12, '15, '17 and now '19). This is also the 9th different starting QB they will put forward in their playoff runs, starting the following names: Randall Cunnigham, Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper (only guy to start more than one playoff year), Tarvaris Jackson, Brett Favre, Christian Ponder (technically, Joe Webb), Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum and now Kirk Cousins.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2014 Lions, a team that went 11-5 with a very good defense anchored by Suh and a series of good front-seven players. They had a 'worse than his numbers' QB who was fueled by a dominant receiver. That team ended up probably deserving to beat a better Dallas team int eh Wild Card round if not for a picked-up pass interference flag.
Top-2 Seed they match up best with: San Francisco. Their turnover forcing defense is better suited to capitalize on the mistakes Garappolo will throw up, and their good OL can neutralize the 49ers key defensive strength to some degree.
5.) Seattle Seahawks (11-5 = 405-398)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 405 ptf (9th), 398 pta (22nd), 5,991 ydf (8th), 6,106 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: 13.8% team (8th), 17.4% off (5th), 2.7% def (18th), -0.9% st (20th)
Offense: Russell Wilson probably shouldn't be so overlooked as an MVP candidate. He's probably now third in most people's minds, but given what he had to play with, you can easily make the argument he's done the most with the least. His pass protection actually has done well down the stretch, but losing Duane Brown is a bit hit, They ended up #4 passing and #6 rushing by DVOA, surprising especially on the running side, but you have to think that wouldn;t have been as good with teh corpse of Marshawn Lynch. No, this is about Wilson doing what he always does, limit turnovers and somehow cobble together 20-30 points every game. They faced a really tough series of defenses which masks a much more consistent, efficient offense than the numbers would show. Rank: 3rd
Defense: Welcome the bizarro Seahawks, a Top-5 offense by advanced numbers, and #18 by defensive DVOA, and not too much better by weighted DVOA. They are relatively better against the pass, but are still middling. They don't get sacks (just 28 for the year), but do force turnovers with the 4th highest forced turnover rate. The team is fairly injured but most of the banged-up guys will play (Clowney, Griffin, Wagner, Kendricks). The Seahawks have scheme and legacy on their side, but the numbers just do not support this being anything other than a perfectly average defense that does one thing that isn't too predictable (force turnovers). To think a Seahawks team would be led in sacks by a guy with just 4.0, or rank 26th in red zone efficiency is shocking. Rank: 6th
Interesting Note: This is the lowest point differential for an NFC playoff team with 10+ wins since realignment in 2002. The Seahawks, if they gained that final few inches and stole the division, would have had the worst point differential ever for a 12-4 team in that scenario (+13). All indications are that this is just not that good of a team.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2010 Colts. A once proud team on both sides of the ball making the playoffs solely due to the brilliance of their QB pushing their offense up, with a defense that is not good but has a habit of giving up fewer points than you would expect. That team ended up losing to the Jets in the Wild Card round.
Top-2 Seed they match up best with: San Francisco, purely because they've shown on two occassions that they can play them fairly well. Part of the relative matchup advantages are the same as the Vikings, such as their ability to force turnovers.
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7 = 385-354)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 385 ptf (12th), 354 pta (15th), 5,772 ydf (14th), 5,307 yda (10th)
= Outsiders: 6.5% team (11th), 2.6% off (14th), -4.0% def (12th), 0.0% (19th)
Offense: The Eagles having a respectable offense this year is truly just a sign of how good Pederson is as a coach, and Wentz is as a QB. There is no reason for them to be anywhere near respectable on that side of the ball. They do a couple of things really well, namely not turning it over, and having a surprisingly great red zone offense (3rd best in NFL), something that again points to Pederson's great playcalling. Wentz has become hyper-conservative and accurate instead of the semi-mad-bomber type he was in 2017-18. The loss of Ertz will be huge, as while Goedert is a good replacement, they run a ton of 2-TE sets which now become less effective. Sanders and Scott have been great in the run game (Eagles rank Top-10 by DVOA) and as pass catchers. There is some decent stuff here, and again if they can get to the red zone they're top-notch. They just don't get there nearly as much as needed. Rank: 6th
Defense: Ok, so the reason the Eagles are in the playoffs is also largely due to their still stout defense. Their DL rotation is still going strong, driving them to a Top-5 hurry rate in the NFL without any true standout star (Fletcher Cox had a quiet season for him). The DL rotation shows up bigger in their rushing defense, which ranks 4th by DVOA. They don't force many turnovers, but are great getting off the field on 3rd down (4th best rate at 34.1%), and stopping drives alltogether. Yes, it is a jumble of randoms in the secondary but Sidney Jones's strong play down the stretch is a good surprise add for them. The Eagles are not as fearsome as their defenses in 2017-18, but given the injuries and lowered effectiveness of the key older mainstays (Cox, Graham), they're still doing quite well. Rank: 4th
Interesting Note: The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, each year having less than 10 wins. Ok, I didn't go through every year, but went back about 20 years and couldn't find one example, so at minimum that takes us before realignment.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2018 Eagles. Yeah, didn't have to think that hard about this one. It is surprising how similar these Eagles are to last years. Of course, last year they were starting Nick Foles come playoff time, but then again Foles had his weapons. On defense, they had the exact same strengths - great in the red zone, great on third down. That team got the double-doink to beat Chicago and came about 30 yards away from shocking the Saints.
Top-2 Seed they match up best with: Green Bay. Again, they've beaten them once already this year - in Green Bay. Of course, that team had actual receivers. Overall though, they force teams into punts and field goals, which the Packers are wont to do on their offensive end anyway. The Packers strength this year has been running the ball, which lines up well with the Eagles best strength.
3.) New Orleans Saints (13-3 = 458-341)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 458 ptf (3rd), 341 pta (13th), 5,982 (9th), 5,329 (11th)
= Outsiders: 29.3% team (4th), 21.3% off (4th), -4.3% def (11th), 3.6% st (3rd)
Offense: We have to do some mental adjustments when looking at the Saints offense, despite them going 5-0 with Bridgewater. Their offense is #4 in DVOA, but go up to 2nd if you weigh the later games more heavily. Brees had another monster season, with a 116 passer rating, a lower pick rate than he's ever had. You can make an argument he was helped by missing a few games, keeping him fresher compared to say last season where he was very clearly worse at the end of the year. Michael Thomas is nigh uncoverable, a second straight year with an 80% catch rate. The emergence of Jared Cook gives them another huge matchup nightmare. This offense is great in every way, even at the things that are mostly un-controllable, losing just two fumbles all year. If there is any down-point, they are fairly average in the red zone, but again part of that is the Bridgewater games skewing the numbers. On the whole, they are the best offense in the NFC. Rank: 1st
Defense: The Saints are above-average (like ranking between 10th-15th) on basically every measure, other than a 5th ranked rush defense by DVOA. A quick rundown: 13th by passing defense DVOA, 12th in yards-per-drive, 13th in turnovers-per-drive, 16th in points-per-drive, 10th in sack rate, 20th in red zone defense. One nice strength is #6 in 3rd down defense. Cameron Jordan had an insane season with 15.5 sacks and 25 overall QB hits, but the rest of the pass rush was very much by comittee. Dennis Allen has done a nice job coordinating this unit, but there is a sense they are stagnating - no better on defense than either of the past two seasons. Of course, when you pair an average defense with a great offense, you can still get a pretty special result. The rank compared to the rest of the playoff field is low, but that's more to say how good the level of defense is in this playoff field. Rank: 5th
Interesting Note: There have been just three teams to go 13-3 and not get a first round bye. The first was the 1999 Titans, but that was in the 3-division-per-conference era, and they had the tough luck of being in the same division as the 14-2 Jaguars. The other two teams: the 2011 and now 2019 Saints, both QBed by Drew Brees, and losing out to the same two teams (49ers and Packers) each time.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2017 Saints. Look, I'm not just picking a recent year for the same team on purpose, but the similarities are striking. Didn't get a bye, but had a ~30% overall DVOA (ranked 1st that year). Great offense (2nd by DVOA), good but not great defense (8th). In the end, they lost to a #2 seed in the Divisional Round in a little thing we like to call the Minneapolis Miracle.
Top-2 Seed they match up best with: Green Bay. They have the rush defense to neutralize Aaron Jones. Their offense simply but is better than the Packers defense in every way. If anything, I'm surprised I went with San Francisco for any of these teams as a better matchup, As we'll get to, the 2019 Packers may be the most ineffectual #2 seed ever.
2.) Green Bay Packers (13-3 = 376-313)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 376 ptf (15th), 313 pta (9th), 5,528 ydf (18th), 5,642 yda (18th)
= Outsiders: 7.7% team (10th), 6.5% off (8th), -1.1% def (15th), 0.1% st (18th)
Offense: It has been weird watching the 'Is Aaron Rodgers declining?' become a mainstream thing. He's basically been like this for five years now, having a truly bad (by stats) end to 2015, and not having a truly great season since. Of course, he has his moments, like the hail mary against Arizona in 2015, or the run to the NFC Championship Game the next year. But this is what Rodgers is. Now, the Packers still ranked #11 in passing offense efficiency, but they ranked 4th in rushing efficiency. Aaron Jones had a great all-purpose year. Devante Adams is Rodgers' only trusted target, but Allan Lazard has become a more effective option late in the season. The Packers still do the one thing Rodgers does at an insane level - not turn it over. Also have a Top-5 red zone offense which should help because they get into the red zone less and less frequently. Rank: 4th
Defense: They are the almost one-for-one inverse of the Packers offense. They are better against the pass than the run (#10 in DVOA vs. #23). They force turnovers at a Top-10 rate. They give up long drives. They do have the 6th best red zone rate in the NFL, which is a big help in the playoffs where they will be playing lower scoring games. It's nice to see an old school pass rush, with their two good 3-4 OLBs each having 12+ sacks, and the rest of the team having far less. The Smith's have been incredibly productive in their first season in Green Bay. There is really nothing truly notable about the Packers defense other than that red zone rate, and their conventionality. Rank: 4th
Interesting Note: Unless they win the Super Bowl, this will probably not be a very well remembered season in the Rodgers era. But somehow this season is the 2nd best record the Packers have had under Aaron Rodgers, and just their 3rd season with more than 12 wins (2011, 2014).
Playoff Doppelganger: 2008 Panthers, probably the last team to earn a 1st round bye that was so non-exceptional. That said, that Pantehrs team had a truly great run-game (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart), but had a similar point differential, similar string of close games, and a two-headed pass rush on defense. They of course melted down in a 13-33 loss to the Cardinals.
1.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3 = 479-310)
Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 479 ptf (2nd), 310 pta (8th), 6,097 ydf (4th), 4,509 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: 27.9% team (5th), 7.2% off (7th), -19.8% def (2nd), 1.0% st (12th)
Offense: The 49ers are the inverse of so many of the offenses in the playoff field - specifically they move the ball well with good efficiency (#5 3rd down rate), but they do turn it over too much. Garoppolo cut down his turnovers as the season went on, but they still are bottom half in both that and red zone efficiency. But they move the ball well. Jimmy G completed nearly 70% of his passes with a y/a of 8.4, which is really good. They have three interchangeable running backs that all had good effiency (all above 4.0 y/c). Their passing offense improved whole-heartedly when Emmanuel Sanders came on board, and have scored 20+ points in nine of their last ten games (the exception being their 17-20 loss to the Ravens). The 49ers offense picked it up at just the right time as well, compensating well for an injured defense. Rank: 2nd
Defense: Halfway through the season the 49ers were nearly Patriots level good. Just like the Patriots, they regressed a bit, but theirs was a more pronounced regression due to injuries. Most of the injured guys will be back (Dee Ford, K'wuan Williams) and the replacements are improving. The pass rush rotation should get back to their seven deep selves in the playoffs, which will be key for a unit that could be a huge strength in the playoffs. For the year, they were #2 against the pass (and not far behind the Pats), and #11 against the rush, and #2 overall in yards-per-drive allowed. They are still an elite unit, with the 2nd best 3rd down rate in the league. They led the league in hurries, and probably should have had more sacks with a more normal sacks/hurry percentage. If there is any glaring issue, it is a 21st ranked red zone defense, part of the reason why they ended up 8th in points allowed. That all said, with guys returning from injuries, they should inherit their place again. Rank: 1st
Interesting Note: The 49ers are the only NFC team to have any red in their uniform. Why is this strange? Well, on the AFC side, all but one team features red, and the one that doesn't technically does if you count the little bit of red in the Maryland State Flag (Baltimore).
Playoff Doppelganger: 2015 Panthers. This one may come back to bite me, but those Panthers had a very similar points scored/allowed profile (500-308 for them). They had the #2 defense in the league behind a historically great '15 Broncos unit, one that scored better in advanced stats than conventional. They had a slightly turnover prone offense that got a lot better as the season went on. That team went on to hold off Seattle 31-24 (they led 31-0), and then rolled a great Arizona team 49-15 in one of the most dominant displays I've seen. Likely this team won't win their NFC Title Game 49-15.
= Conventional: 407 ptf (8th), 303 pta (5th), 5.656 ydf (16th), 5,465 yda (14th)
= Outsiders: 15.4% team (10th), 4.6% off (10th), -9.9% def (7th), 0.8% st (14th)
Offense: The Vikings offense on paper is good but not great, which is nice as it lines up perfectly with how you would think they would perform. 10th by DVOA passing, 15th rushing, 11th on yards per drive, 10th on red zone efficiency. Basically they are a bottom-end but deserving playoff caliber offense. Cousins cooled off slightly towards the end of the year, partly due to natural regression, and partly to Adam Thielen's injuries. In a deep NFC playoff field, being somewhat middling on turnover rate and other stats just doesn't stand out. Dalvin Cook had a beautiful 1,500 yard-for-scrimmage season, with a 80% catch rate to boot, and he might be crucial as a check-down option against the top pass rushes that the NFC playoff field can boast. They really need Thielen to be healthy and productive - his numbers were shockingly low with 30 catches in the partial 10 games he played. That won't cut it. Rank: 5th
Defense: The Vikings defense is essentially a lower-variance, better version of their offense. Good but not truly great at anything aside from forcing turnovers (3rd best rate in the league). The secondary has been a jumble and had consistency issues, but their trio of safeties (Smith, Harris, Sendejo) were good in cleaning things up and snagging 11 interceptions. The front-seven is the strength, pushing them to 48 sacks, and a Top-10 ranking agaisnt both the run and pass - driven a lot by strong pass defense numbers against running backs and TEs. This is not the unit that was so good in 2017, primarily because of the issues in the secondary, but their front is about as good at pushign the pocket and getting consistent pressure, led by their superstar Danielle Hunter and his 14.5 sacks. Rank: 2nd
Interesting Note: This is the 10th time the Minnnesota Vikings have made the playoffs in the last 22 years ('98, '99, '00, '04, '08, '09, '12, '15, '17 and now '19). This is also the 9th different starting QB they will put forward in their playoff runs, starting the following names: Randall Cunnigham, Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper (only guy to start more than one playoff year), Tarvaris Jackson, Brett Favre, Christian Ponder (technically, Joe Webb), Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum and now Kirk Cousins.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2014 Lions, a team that went 11-5 with a very good defense anchored by Suh and a series of good front-seven players. They had a 'worse than his numbers' QB who was fueled by a dominant receiver. That team ended up probably deserving to beat a better Dallas team int eh Wild Card round if not for a picked-up pass interference flag.
Top-2 Seed they match up best with: San Francisco. Their turnover forcing defense is better suited to capitalize on the mistakes Garappolo will throw up, and their good OL can neutralize the 49ers key defensive strength to some degree.
5.) Seattle Seahawks (11-5 = 405-398)
= Conventional: 405 ptf (9th), 398 pta (22nd), 5,991 ydf (8th), 6,106 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: 13.8% team (8th), 17.4% off (5th), 2.7% def (18th), -0.9% st (20th)
Offense: Russell Wilson probably shouldn't be so overlooked as an MVP candidate. He's probably now third in most people's minds, but given what he had to play with, you can easily make the argument he's done the most with the least. His pass protection actually has done well down the stretch, but losing Duane Brown is a bit hit, They ended up #4 passing and #6 rushing by DVOA, surprising especially on the running side, but you have to think that wouldn;t have been as good with teh corpse of Marshawn Lynch. No, this is about Wilson doing what he always does, limit turnovers and somehow cobble together 20-30 points every game. They faced a really tough series of defenses which masks a much more consistent, efficient offense than the numbers would show. Rank: 3rd
Defense: Welcome the bizarro Seahawks, a Top-5 offense by advanced numbers, and #18 by defensive DVOA, and not too much better by weighted DVOA. They are relatively better against the pass, but are still middling. They don't get sacks (just 28 for the year), but do force turnovers with the 4th highest forced turnover rate. The team is fairly injured but most of the banged-up guys will play (Clowney, Griffin, Wagner, Kendricks). The Seahawks have scheme and legacy on their side, but the numbers just do not support this being anything other than a perfectly average defense that does one thing that isn't too predictable (force turnovers). To think a Seahawks team would be led in sacks by a guy with just 4.0, or rank 26th in red zone efficiency is shocking. Rank: 6th
Interesting Note: This is the lowest point differential for an NFC playoff team with 10+ wins since realignment in 2002. The Seahawks, if they gained that final few inches and stole the division, would have had the worst point differential ever for a 12-4 team in that scenario (+13). All indications are that this is just not that good of a team.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2010 Colts. A once proud team on both sides of the ball making the playoffs solely due to the brilliance of their QB pushing their offense up, with a defense that is not good but has a habit of giving up fewer points than you would expect. That team ended up losing to the Jets in the Wild Card round.
Top-2 Seed they match up best with: San Francisco, purely because they've shown on two occassions that they can play them fairly well. Part of the relative matchup advantages are the same as the Vikings, such as their ability to force turnovers.
4.) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7 = 385-354)
= Conventional: 385 ptf (12th), 354 pta (15th), 5,772 ydf (14th), 5,307 yda (10th)
= Outsiders: 6.5% team (11th), 2.6% off (14th), -4.0% def (12th), 0.0% (19th)
Offense: The Eagles having a respectable offense this year is truly just a sign of how good Pederson is as a coach, and Wentz is as a QB. There is no reason for them to be anywhere near respectable on that side of the ball. They do a couple of things really well, namely not turning it over, and having a surprisingly great red zone offense (3rd best in NFL), something that again points to Pederson's great playcalling. Wentz has become hyper-conservative and accurate instead of the semi-mad-bomber type he was in 2017-18. The loss of Ertz will be huge, as while Goedert is a good replacement, they run a ton of 2-TE sets which now become less effective. Sanders and Scott have been great in the run game (Eagles rank Top-10 by DVOA) and as pass catchers. There is some decent stuff here, and again if they can get to the red zone they're top-notch. They just don't get there nearly as much as needed. Rank: 6th
Defense: Ok, so the reason the Eagles are in the playoffs is also largely due to their still stout defense. Their DL rotation is still going strong, driving them to a Top-5 hurry rate in the NFL without any true standout star (Fletcher Cox had a quiet season for him). The DL rotation shows up bigger in their rushing defense, which ranks 4th by DVOA. They don't force many turnovers, but are great getting off the field on 3rd down (4th best rate at 34.1%), and stopping drives alltogether. Yes, it is a jumble of randoms in the secondary but Sidney Jones's strong play down the stretch is a good surprise add for them. The Eagles are not as fearsome as their defenses in 2017-18, but given the injuries and lowered effectiveness of the key older mainstays (Cox, Graham), they're still doing quite well. Rank: 4th
Interesting Note: The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, each year having less than 10 wins. Ok, I didn't go through every year, but went back about 20 years and couldn't find one example, so at minimum that takes us before realignment.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2018 Eagles. Yeah, didn't have to think that hard about this one. It is surprising how similar these Eagles are to last years. Of course, last year they were starting Nick Foles come playoff time, but then again Foles had his weapons. On defense, they had the exact same strengths - great in the red zone, great on third down. That team got the double-doink to beat Chicago and came about 30 yards away from shocking the Saints.
Top-2 Seed they match up best with: Green Bay. Again, they've beaten them once already this year - in Green Bay. Of course, that team had actual receivers. Overall though, they force teams into punts and field goals, which the Packers are wont to do on their offensive end anyway. The Packers strength this year has been running the ball, which lines up well with the Eagles best strength.
3.) New Orleans Saints (13-3 = 458-341)
= Conventional: 458 ptf (3rd), 341 pta (13th), 5,982 (9th), 5,329 (11th)
= Outsiders: 29.3% team (4th), 21.3% off (4th), -4.3% def (11th), 3.6% st (3rd)
Offense: We have to do some mental adjustments when looking at the Saints offense, despite them going 5-0 with Bridgewater. Their offense is #4 in DVOA, but go up to 2nd if you weigh the later games more heavily. Brees had another monster season, with a 116 passer rating, a lower pick rate than he's ever had. You can make an argument he was helped by missing a few games, keeping him fresher compared to say last season where he was very clearly worse at the end of the year. Michael Thomas is nigh uncoverable, a second straight year with an 80% catch rate. The emergence of Jared Cook gives them another huge matchup nightmare. This offense is great in every way, even at the things that are mostly un-controllable, losing just two fumbles all year. If there is any down-point, they are fairly average in the red zone, but again part of that is the Bridgewater games skewing the numbers. On the whole, they are the best offense in the NFC. Rank: 1st
Defense: The Saints are above-average (like ranking between 10th-15th) on basically every measure, other than a 5th ranked rush defense by DVOA. A quick rundown: 13th by passing defense DVOA, 12th in yards-per-drive, 13th in turnovers-per-drive, 16th in points-per-drive, 10th in sack rate, 20th in red zone defense. One nice strength is #6 in 3rd down defense. Cameron Jordan had an insane season with 15.5 sacks and 25 overall QB hits, but the rest of the pass rush was very much by comittee. Dennis Allen has done a nice job coordinating this unit, but there is a sense they are stagnating - no better on defense than either of the past two seasons. Of course, when you pair an average defense with a great offense, you can still get a pretty special result. The rank compared to the rest of the playoff field is low, but that's more to say how good the level of defense is in this playoff field. Rank: 5th
Interesting Note: There have been just three teams to go 13-3 and not get a first round bye. The first was the 1999 Titans, but that was in the 3-division-per-conference era, and they had the tough luck of being in the same division as the 14-2 Jaguars. The other two teams: the 2011 and now 2019 Saints, both QBed by Drew Brees, and losing out to the same two teams (49ers and Packers) each time.
Playoff Doppelganger: 2017 Saints. Look, I'm not just picking a recent year for the same team on purpose, but the similarities are striking. Didn't get a bye, but had a ~30% overall DVOA (ranked 1st that year). Great offense (2nd by DVOA), good but not great defense (8th). In the end, they lost to a #2 seed in the Divisional Round in a little thing we like to call the Minneapolis Miracle.
Top-2 Seed they match up best with: Green Bay. They have the rush defense to neutralize Aaron Jones. Their offense simply but is better than the Packers defense in every way. If anything, I'm surprised I went with San Francisco for any of these teams as a better matchup, As we'll get to, the 2019 Packers may be the most ineffectual #2 seed ever.
2.) Green Bay Packers (13-3 = 376-313)
= Conventional: 376 ptf (15th), 313 pta (9th), 5,528 ydf (18th), 5,642 yda (18th)
= Outsiders: 7.7% team (10th), 6.5% off (8th), -1.1% def (15th), 0.1% st (18th)
Offense: It has been weird watching the 'Is Aaron Rodgers declining?' become a mainstream thing. He's basically been like this for five years now, having a truly bad (by stats) end to 2015, and not having a truly great season since. Of course, he has his moments, like the hail mary against Arizona in 2015, or the run to the NFC Championship Game the next year. But this is what Rodgers is. Now, the Packers still ranked #11 in passing offense efficiency, but they ranked 4th in rushing efficiency. Aaron Jones had a great all-purpose year. Devante Adams is Rodgers' only trusted target, but Allan Lazard has become a more effective option late in the season. The Packers still do the one thing Rodgers does at an insane level - not turn it over. Also have a Top-5 red zone offense which should help because they get into the red zone less and less frequently. Rank: 4th
Defense: They are the almost one-for-one inverse of the Packers offense. They are better against the pass than the run (#10 in DVOA vs. #23). They force turnovers at a Top-10 rate. They give up long drives. They do have the 6th best red zone rate in the NFL, which is a big help in the playoffs where they will be playing lower scoring games. It's nice to see an old school pass rush, with their two good 3-4 OLBs each having 12+ sacks, and the rest of the team having far less. The Smith's have been incredibly productive in their first season in Green Bay. There is really nothing truly notable about the Packers defense other than that red zone rate, and their conventionality. Rank: 4th
Interesting Note: Unless they win the Super Bowl, this will probably not be a very well remembered season in the Rodgers era. But somehow this season is the 2nd best record the Packers have had under Aaron Rodgers, and just their 3rd season with more than 12 wins (2011, 2014).
Playoff Doppelganger: 2008 Panthers, probably the last team to earn a 1st round bye that was so non-exceptional. That said, that Pantehrs team had a truly great run-game (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart), but had a similar point differential, similar string of close games, and a two-headed pass rush on defense. They of course melted down in a 13-33 loss to the Cardinals.
1.) San Francisco 49ers (13-3 = 479-310)
= Conventional: 479 ptf (2nd), 310 pta (8th), 6,097 ydf (4th), 4,509 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: 27.9% team (5th), 7.2% off (7th), -19.8% def (2nd), 1.0% st (12th)
Offense: The 49ers are the inverse of so many of the offenses in the playoff field - specifically they move the ball well with good efficiency (#5 3rd down rate), but they do turn it over too much. Garoppolo cut down his turnovers as the season went on, but they still are bottom half in both that and red zone efficiency. But they move the ball well. Jimmy G completed nearly 70% of his passes with a y/a of 8.4, which is really good. They have three interchangeable running backs that all had good effiency (all above 4.0 y/c). Their passing offense improved whole-heartedly when Emmanuel Sanders came on board, and have scored 20+ points in nine of their last ten games (the exception being their 17-20 loss to the Ravens). The 49ers offense picked it up at just the right time as well, compensating well for an injured defense. Rank: 2nd
Defense: Halfway through the season the 49ers were nearly Patriots level good. Just like the Patriots, they regressed a bit, but theirs was a more pronounced regression due to injuries. Most of the injured guys will be back (Dee Ford, K'wuan Williams) and the replacements are improving. The pass rush rotation should get back to their seven deep selves in the playoffs, which will be key for a unit that could be a huge strength in the playoffs. For the year, they were #2 against the pass (and not far behind the Pats), and #11 against the rush, and #2 overall in yards-per-drive allowed. They are still an elite unit, with the 2nd best 3rd down rate in the league. They led the league in hurries, and probably should have had more sacks with a more normal sacks/hurry percentage. If there is any glaring issue, it is a 21st ranked red zone defense, part of the reason why they ended up 8th in points allowed. That all said, with guys returning from injuries, they should inherit their place again. Rank: 1st
Interesting Note: The 49ers are the only NFC team to have any red in their uniform. Why is this strange? Well, on the AFC side, all but one team features red, and the one that doesn't technically does if you count the little bit of red in the Maryland State Flag (Baltimore).
Playoff Doppelganger: 2015 Panthers. This one may come back to bite me, but those Panthers had a very similar points scored/allowed profile (500-308 for them). They had the #2 defense in the league behind a historically great '15 Broncos unit, one that scored better in advanced stats than conventional. They had a slightly turnover prone offense that got a lot better as the season went on. That team went on to hold off Seattle 31-24 (they led 31-0), and then rolled a great Arizona team 49-15 in one of the most dominant displays I've seen. Likely this team won't win their NFC Title Game 49-15.
