For the first time since the 2008 season, as in the last playoffs before I started this blog, I don't have a significant rooting interest in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Basically, what that means is this is the first time in forever the Patriots aren't involved, and the last time they weren't, Peyton's Colts were involved.
This time I can actually just sit back and enjoy the best weekend of the sports year in all its beautiful glory, and we have some nice games to make it all work.
State of the Teams: The real 49ers are back in terms of their personnel. Kwon Alexander made his miracle return much like JJ Watt did the week prior. Jaquisky Tartt is back. Dee Ford will likely be back. The 49ers defense was Patriots level good through eleven or so games when these injuries started, but with the full roster back you would expect a good return to form. For the Vikings, the best news for them was Adam Thielen being the nightmare he is when healthy. The rest of the team is healthy and ready aside from issues in the secondary - which they have even when their main guys are playing. The Vikings can enter this game with the view that they've played similar-style offenses in Chicago and Green Bay and done well, but the 49ers, when they're not turning the ball over, are a different animal than those teams.
Matchup: Let's start with the matchup that will likely define this game - the Vikings offense against the San Francisco defense. The 49ers defense is healthy now but eve when including their time in the wilderness they remain a Top-5, if not Top-2 unit. Their pass rush and pass defense is excellent, even against play action, which will b huge since as much as the Vikings may extol their run-the-ball principles they are best when they can pass. The Vikings also fumble a lot and the 49ers force a lot of fumbles - not a great combination. On the other side of the matchup, it is probably a less one-sided version of the other. The 49ers are most effective when they can pass off of play-action. They will need to be able to block Hunter and Griffen inside if that is the route Zimmer wants to do. The Vikings force a lot of turnovers, which the 49ers have as their kryptonite. On the whole, both sides lean towards the defense, but the 49ers defense is just better. If there is an area of clear edge for Minnesota, it is their better red zone play on both sides (#2 offense, #10 defense vs. #21 offense, #22 defense for SF), but the 49ers are better across the board on third down.
Interesting Note: The 49ers are 12-2 all time in the Divisional Round with a first round bye, losing just in 1987 to Minnesota and in 1995 to Green Bay.
The Pick: To put it simply, the 49ers are a better version of the Vikings. They have the same lethal pass rush, but it is deeper. They also rely on play action, but their run game is better. Their secondary is good and healthy, the Vikings is iffy and injured. The Vikings have good coaching, but so do the 49ers. Turnovers and red zone could help the Vikings, but I think the 49ers will get enough drives in to overcome any relative red zone weakness.
State of the Teams: The Titans are running in hot with their inspirational win against the Patriots, a game that showed their power and physicality. They also scored 14 points. The Titans are healthy, but we saw Tannehill struggle (albeit against a great defense) in a way he hadn't all year - a sign his legendary hot streak may be ending). For the Ravens, they are as healthy as you can reasonably expect, with just two players listed as questionable in the Marks Ingram and Andrews - both expected to play. The Titans will be without Adam Humphries again, but maybe more worringly without lijnebacker Jayon Brown, because as good as the Titans heavy run-game may seem, the Ravens are the best run team in a long, long time.
Matchup: As I alluded to a few times, the Ravens are just better. The Ravens rank as one of the Top-10 teams by DVOA since 1985 - I believe a final ranking of 7th. They are #1 on offense by a country mile this season - ranking first in DVOA in rushing (obviously) and passing (less obviously). Yes the pass game is helped by play action, but they can run even when trailing given how dynanic that side is. The Titans relative strength defensively is against the run, but the Ravens might still be fine if forced to pass. The Ravens are the second best red zone offense in the NFL (not surprising for a great runnning team), and the Titans are second worst. On the other side, the Titans great results under Tannehill have it closer than it may look initially. The Titans are surprisingly top in red zone offense, but the Ravens are the third best defense in the red zone. One thing to monitor is Tannehill has been ungodly against the blitz and the Ravens blitz more than any team in the league. That said, Tanehill struggled against teh Patriots blitzing. If the Tannehill from the Patriots game shows up, the Titans have little to no chance. They may not anyway.
Interesting Note: This is just the third Divisional Game ever in Baltimore, with the Ravens 1-1 in the previous two, losing to the Colts in 2006 and beating the Texans in 2011. It's a bit surprising how few times the Ravens have been in position despite being so successful the last 20 years.
The Pick: To put it mildly, we are all probably underrating just how good this Baltimore team is. A scoring differential of 531 points for and 282 points allowed is all-time good - second best since the 2002 season expanded the league to 32 teams, with only the 2007 Patriots higher. There is little that they are not good at, be it by volume or efficiency. Great teams have lost playoff games before - there are some similarities here to the 2012 Broncos losing to that years Ravens team, but it will have to be a large upset.
State of the Teams: Both teams enter relatively healthy and hot. The Texans truly survived that game, but their big issues against Buffalo - namely pass rush - shouldn't be as much of an issue here with a healthy OL and the should be return of Will Fuller, the guy who makes that offense click. The only worry on the KC side is the injury to Chris Jones. The Texans are a good not great running team, but issues to the Chiefs rush defense could assist in shortening the game, giving a better chance for the underdogs. The best change for the Chiefs compared to when they first played is the health of Patrick Mahomes, something that was certainly not the case the first time these two teams met. The Chiefs pass defense has improved throughout the season, which should be huge in this game.
Matchup: Much like the other AFC matchup, on paper this really does not seem close. The Texans have a few very clear weaknesses - a porous defense that ranks 31st on third downs, 32nd in the red zone (not so much so against Buffalo), a weak pass rush, and while JJ Watt's return helped he still clearly is not 100%. The Chiefs offense is still excellent even when looking at year-long stats that incldue games with Matt Moore and a gimpy Mahomes. He is still the most dynamic passer in the league and Reid's game-plan keep speople on their toes the whole time. His roster of weapons are all ready and healthy. The other side of the matchup will probably define whether this is a blowout or a close game. Watson will need to hit a few nig plays, which the Chiefs have been susceptible to. They'll need to try running to shorten the game, but they may have some success against a rush defense that ranks 29th. The key for the Chiefs will be to get ahead early and force Houston to abandon a rush game that could be successful early. Basically, the old Manning-Colts formula.
Interesting Note:
The Pick: I am confident in picking the Chiefs to win, but I do get a sense it may be closer than expected. I do think the Texans will have success rushing the ball early on. They could limit the game. Their defense is horribly outmatched against the Chiefs offense, but their own offense should keep them in the game at the start. There is a chance the worst version of the Texans show up and its a blowout, but there is anough matchup edges to keep it within ten points.
State of the Teams: The Seahawks are no healthier this week than they were last week. Still no Duane Brown or Chris Carson. It was enough against a team equally injured that then lost its QB, but may pose a bit more difficulty against the Packers. On the Packers side, they are relatively healthy. The big questions around them is still the lingering sense they aren't all that good - with teh worst point differential for a 13-3 or better team ever, and a sense that they just aren't all that good. To be fair, that is true of either team. The Seahawks had a poor differential for an 11-5 team too. The Packers pass rush is healthy, Rodgers has stayed clean all year, but it will be interesting to see if he loses the inaccuracy issues from his last game.
Matchup: Almost no side of this game has anything truly excellent about it. For the Seahawks offense against Packers defense side, the Seahawks are a top-5 DVOA offense, good on both pass and run, but the run is worse with Chris Carson gone, and the passing game may struggle if the Smith's tee off against the lack of Duane Brown. The Seahawks offensive tendency to run way too much may lull them into some middlign success against a relatively porous rush defense. Red zone may be key as both units rank in the Top-10 of the league. The Packers offense matches up pretty well with where teh Seahawks struggle, particularly running the ball. Aaron Jones could have a great game against a rush defense ranked #26 in DVOA. The Packers never turn the ball over - playing right to what the Sehawks defense relies on. They've excelled at pass blocking now going up against one of the worst pass rushes in the league. The Packers red zone offense is #9 in the league, agaisnt a Seahawks red zone defense that ranks #26. If anything, the Packers issue is they just stop playing halfway through if they build a lead - a aterrible idea against one of the better comeback QBs.
Interesting Note: The Packers have lost quite a few home playoff games since losing at Lambeau in the playoffs for the first time in 2002. That said, they have never lost at home after the bye, winning in that situation in 1996, 1997, 2007, 2011 and 2014. Conversely, Seattle has never made the Conference Title Game without a bye - needing it in 2005, 2013 and 2014.
The Pick: The Packers to me are the better team of the team, and have a big matchup edge on their offense against the Seahawks defense. If they can pressure WIlson and not let Marshawn beat them they shouild get this game. That said, strange stuff happens when they play, be it the Fail Mary, or the 2014 Title Game, or Wilson's 5-pick disaster in 2016. I do think the Seahawks keep it somewhat close, but the Packers edges on their offense should carry the day.
This time I can actually just sit back and enjoy the best weekend of the sports year in all its beautiful glory, and we have some nice games to make it all work.
(N6) Minnesota Vikings (11-6) @ (N1) San Francisco 49ers (13-3)
Sat., 4:35 - NBC | SF -7.0
Matchup: Let's start with the matchup that will likely define this game - the Vikings offense against the San Francisco defense. The 49ers defense is healthy now but eve when including their time in the wilderness they remain a Top-5, if not Top-2 unit. Their pass rush and pass defense is excellent, even against play action, which will b huge since as much as the Vikings may extol their run-the-ball principles they are best when they can pass. The Vikings also fumble a lot and the 49ers force a lot of fumbles - not a great combination. On the other side of the matchup, it is probably a less one-sided version of the other. The 49ers are most effective when they can pass off of play-action. They will need to be able to block Hunter and Griffen inside if that is the route Zimmer wants to do. The Vikings force a lot of turnovers, which the 49ers have as their kryptonite. On the whole, both sides lean towards the defense, but the 49ers defense is just better. If there is an area of clear edge for Minnesota, it is their better red zone play on both sides (#2 offense, #10 defense vs. #21 offense, #22 defense for SF), but the 49ers are better across the board on third down.
Interesting Note: The 49ers are 12-2 all time in the Divisional Round with a first round bye, losing just in 1987 to Minnesota and in 1995 to Green Bay.
The Pick: To put it simply, the 49ers are a better version of the Vikings. They have the same lethal pass rush, but it is deeper. They also rely on play action, but their run game is better. Their secondary is good and healthy, the Vikings is iffy and injured. The Vikings have good coaching, but so do the 49ers. Turnovers and red zone could help the Vikings, but I think the 49ers will get enough drives in to overcome any relative red zone weakness.
Vikings 17 49ers 30 (SF -7.0)
(A6) Tennessee Titans (10-7) @ (A1) Baltimore Ravens (14-2)
Sat., 8:15 - CBS | BAL -10.0
Matchup: As I alluded to a few times, the Ravens are just better. The Ravens rank as one of the Top-10 teams by DVOA since 1985 - I believe a final ranking of 7th. They are #1 on offense by a country mile this season - ranking first in DVOA in rushing (obviously) and passing (less obviously). Yes the pass game is helped by play action, but they can run even when trailing given how dynanic that side is. The Titans relative strength defensively is against the run, but the Ravens might still be fine if forced to pass. The Ravens are the second best red zone offense in the NFL (not surprising for a great runnning team), and the Titans are second worst. On the other side, the Titans great results under Tannehill have it closer than it may look initially. The Titans are surprisingly top in red zone offense, but the Ravens are the third best defense in the red zone. One thing to monitor is Tannehill has been ungodly against the blitz and the Ravens blitz more than any team in the league. That said, Tanehill struggled against teh Patriots blitzing. If the Tannehill from the Patriots game shows up, the Titans have little to no chance. They may not anyway.
Interesting Note: This is just the third Divisional Game ever in Baltimore, with the Ravens 1-1 in the previous two, losing to the Colts in 2006 and beating the Texans in 2011. It's a bit surprising how few times the Ravens have been in position despite being so successful the last 20 years.
The Pick: To put it mildly, we are all probably underrating just how good this Baltimore team is. A scoring differential of 531 points for and 282 points allowed is all-time good - second best since the 2002 season expanded the league to 32 teams, with only the 2007 Patriots higher. There is little that they are not good at, be it by volume or efficiency. Great teams have lost playoff games before - there are some similarities here to the 2012 Broncos losing to that years Ravens team, but it will have to be a large upset.
Titans 13 Ravens 34 (BAL -10.0)
(A4) Houston Texans (11-6) @ (A2) Kansas City Chiefs (12-4)
Sun., 3:00 - CBS | KC -10.0
State of the Teams: Both teams enter relatively healthy and hot. The Texans truly survived that game, but their big issues against Buffalo - namely pass rush - shouldn't be as much of an issue here with a healthy OL and the should be return of Will Fuller, the guy who makes that offense click. The only worry on the KC side is the injury to Chris Jones. The Texans are a good not great running team, but issues to the Chiefs rush defense could assist in shortening the game, giving a better chance for the underdogs. The best change for the Chiefs compared to when they first played is the health of Patrick Mahomes, something that was certainly not the case the first time these two teams met. The Chiefs pass defense has improved throughout the season, which should be huge in this game.
Matchup: Much like the other AFC matchup, on paper this really does not seem close. The Texans have a few very clear weaknesses - a porous defense that ranks 31st on third downs, 32nd in the red zone (not so much so against Buffalo), a weak pass rush, and while JJ Watt's return helped he still clearly is not 100%. The Chiefs offense is still excellent even when looking at year-long stats that incldue games with Matt Moore and a gimpy Mahomes. He is still the most dynamic passer in the league and Reid's game-plan keep speople on their toes the whole time. His roster of weapons are all ready and healthy. The other side of the matchup will probably define whether this is a blowout or a close game. Watson will need to hit a few nig plays, which the Chiefs have been susceptible to. They'll need to try running to shorten the game, but they may have some success against a rush defense that ranks 29th. The key for the Chiefs will be to get ahead early and force Houston to abandon a rush game that could be successful early. Basically, the old Manning-Colts formula.
Interesting Note:
The Pick: I am confident in picking the Chiefs to win, but I do get a sense it may be closer than expected. I do think the Texans will have success rushing the ball early on. They could limit the game. Their defense is horribly outmatched against the Chiefs offense, but their own offense should keep them in the game at the start. There is a chance the worst version of the Texans show up and its a blowout, but there is anough matchup edges to keep it within ten points.
Texans 24 Chiefs 31 (HOU +10.0)
(N5) Seattle Seahawks (12-5) @ (N2) Green Bay Packers (13-3)
Sun., 6:35 - FOX | GB -4.0
Matchup: Almost no side of this game has anything truly excellent about it. For the Seahawks offense against Packers defense side, the Seahawks are a top-5 DVOA offense, good on both pass and run, but the run is worse with Chris Carson gone, and the passing game may struggle if the Smith's tee off against the lack of Duane Brown. The Seahawks offensive tendency to run way too much may lull them into some middlign success against a relatively porous rush defense. Red zone may be key as both units rank in the Top-10 of the league. The Packers offense matches up pretty well with where teh Seahawks struggle, particularly running the ball. Aaron Jones could have a great game against a rush defense ranked #26 in DVOA. The Packers never turn the ball over - playing right to what the Sehawks defense relies on. They've excelled at pass blocking now going up against one of the worst pass rushes in the league. The Packers red zone offense is #9 in the league, agaisnt a Seahawks red zone defense that ranks #26. If anything, the Packers issue is they just stop playing halfway through if they build a lead - a aterrible idea against one of the better comeback QBs.
Interesting Note: The Packers have lost quite a few home playoff games since losing at Lambeau in the playoffs for the first time in 2002. That said, they have never lost at home after the bye, winning in that situation in 1996, 1997, 2007, 2011 and 2014. Conversely, Seattle has never made the Conference Title Game without a bye - needing it in 2005, 2013 and 2014.
The Pick: The Packers to me are the better team of the team, and have a big matchup edge on their offense against the Seahawks defense. If they can pressure WIlson and not let Marshawn beat them they shouild get this game. That said, strange stuff happens when they play, be it the Fail Mary, or the 2014 Title Game, or Wilson's 5-pick disaster in 2016. I do think the Seahawks keep it somewhat close, but the Packers edges on their offense should carry the day.
Seahawks 21 Packers 27 (GB -4.0)
