Ranking the Non-Playoff Teams & What they Need to do to Compete in 2014
32.) Tennessee Titans (2-14 = 254-438)
Figure out of Ken Whisenhunt is a good coach. The Titans have no real shot at improvement if Whisenhunt can only coach with insane offensive talent or get a ridiculous string of luck to go 8-8 in 2011. There's really been no in-between with Whisenhunt, who's now gone 5-11, 5-11 and 2-14 in three of his last four seasons. I think he is a good coach, but he seems to not be a good war-time coach at all.
31.) Washington Redskins (4-12 = 301-438)
Figure out the RGIII mess. I wrote that exact same line last year. Somehow, despite the Redskins firing the Shanahans for no reason other than their inability to gel with RGIII (Jr. did well for himself, crafting a competent offense in Cleveland with nothing), the Redskins QB situation is more dire. Colt McCoy was used as a serious alternative. I have no idea how this ends. I just thank my lucky stars the Colts picked Luck.
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13 = 249-412)
Hope Blake Bortles is good. Honestly, if he can step up his game, this can be a .500 team. The Jaguars have more talent than a normal 3-13 team, and assuming Gas Bradley stays, that defense can be average to slightly above average next season. Bortles was given little, and generally acquitted himself poorly, but if he has a sizable improvement, things won't be so dire.
29.) Oakland Raiders (3-13 = 253-452)
Actually spend money wisely and build something. The Raiders had all the money to spend last season and spent it stupidly on aging vets. Luckily for them they were mostly short-term deals they can go away from this year. What they need to do is build more around Derek Carr and Khalil Mack. The future is there, but what could help is knowing they'll be in LA; probably easier to attract talent.
28.) Chicago Bears (5-11 = 319-442)
Move on from Jay Cutler. Move away while he has some value. Obviously, no team is going through more structural changes than the Bears, firing the Team President, GM and Coach, but that anchor of a QB is still sitting there getting worse by the year. Sadly for the Bears, the talent in Chicago never aligned with Cutler's best years (2010-2011).
27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14 = 277-410)
Draft Marcus Mariota and hope he is good. The Buccaneers could really be the 4th straight team to go from 2-14 and the #1 pick to over .500 (the '12 Colts and '13 Chiefs even made the playoffs). If Marcus Mariota can give the Buccaneers what Luck gave the Colts or Alex Smith gave the Chiefs, they can be a 8-8 team. That point differential does not spell 2-14, and that counts two massive blowouts that hurt them. They're a team that could surprise in 2015.
26.) New York Jets (4-12 = 283-401)
Re-Hire Rex Ryan. Obviously, that is not happening, but I still believe that firing Rex is short-sighted. Idzik was the real issue. That team was bereft of talent and Rex had them playing hard each week. In meaningless games down the stretch, the Jets played hard for Rex. What Rex needs is an offensive coordinator that can really build an offense.
25.) Cleveland Browns (7-9 = 299-337)
Commit to Johnny Manziel. I don't know if he's good. He was absolutely pathetic in his limited appearances. Of course, there were also reports of him partying and not putting the work in. Maybe that is a serious character issue that will never be resolved, but maybe that goes down if he knows he is the starter. It's a hope, but it could work.
24.) Houston Texans (9-7 = 372-307)
Keep paying the NFL to schedule backups to play them. The Texans went 9-7. That looks good, as does the +65 point differential and them continuing to employ JJ Watt, but here are the QBs that they beat: RGIII, Matt Schaub, EJ Manuel, Chaz Whitehurst (x2), Brian Hoyer, Zach Mettenberger, Blake Bortles (x2), and Joe Flacco. The only real QB they beat was Flacco. If they can get that schedule next year, they're golden.
23.) Atlanta Falcons (6-10 = 381-417)
Re-Hire Mike Smith. I'm usually not too critical over fires for teams that aren't near .500, but I think that was short-sighted. I get that Mike Smith made some in-game errors from time-to-time, but that team does not have too much talent and was ravaged by injuries. Thomas Dimitroff is as much to blame. This was a team that went 40 years without back-to-back winning seasons. They went 5-straight with Smith and tossed that away.
22.) New Orleans Saints (7-9 = 401-424)
Start the Re-Build Now. I get that Drew Brees probably does not have too many years left, but after a disastrous season trying to go all in and making their already bad cap situation even more dire, the Saints are in a really rough spot. This is the NFL, so if they go 12-4 next year it wouldn't be too shocking, but the Brees/Payton era has seemingly reached the 16th hole.
21.) Minnesota Vikings (7-9 = 325-343)
Re-Tool the Weapons for Teddy B. I don't think Bridgewater showed that he will be a very good QB, but showed that he will be at least decent. What isn't decent are the players around Teddy. Some of that is self-inflicted (Peterson), but some is aging (Greg Jennings) and misuse (Cordarrelle), but they need to surround Teddy with a little bit more to supplement that good defense.
20.) St. Louis Rams (6-10 = 324-354)
Find a real QB, not a stop-gap. Maybe that is giving Bradford one more chance on an incentive-laden contract, or getting one in the draft, or even trading for Jay Cutler, but Shaun Hill or Austin Davis is at best a stop-gap. The Rams have talent all over the place, and are better than that 6-10 record. They could make a push next year if they get the right signal caller.
19.) San Francisco 49ers (8-8 = 306-340)
Hope that Jim Harbaugh is not the one that got away. I'm not against this 'parting of ways' like I am with Rex or Mike Smith, because it seemed clear that Harbaugh himself wanted out. Still, losing a guy that went 44-19-1 is not easy. This team was the most consistent team in the NFC from 2011-2014. Jim Harbaugh revitalized football in San Francisco. That isn't easy to replicate.
18.) New York Giants (6-10 = 380-400)
Hope that ODB is not the new JPP, and that JPP becomes the new other ODB. Odell Beckham Jr. had the best season of a rookie WR ever, apart from Randy Moss. The Giants have a lot to look forward to with ODB. Of course, the Giants probably felt the same way about JPP after 2011, and he's been hurt and relatively underperforming ever since. As for JPP, they have to hope he can become the new Ol' Dirty.
17.) Buffalo Bills (9-7 = 343-289)
Get a QB by any means necessary. This is the team that could improve the most by simply adding an above average QB. An average QB would have had them in the playoffs if they didn't blow games against Houston due to EJ Manuel's incompetence, and Oakland due to Orton's. The Bills beat the Packers, let's not forget that. Their defense is excellent, and their offense has playmakers. If they can get a QB, and maybe that too is Cutler, they can make a good run. The problem is that getting a QB is not that easy.
16.) San Diego Chargers (9-7 = 348-348)
Hope you can stick with your top center. In reality, just be less injured. The Chargers have a good QB, solid weapons, and a young defense that got a lot better from the 2013 version. If the Chargers can get consistent o-line play that resembles league average, this is a playoff team. Much of that was injuries, not a need for new players.
15.) Miami Dolphins (8-8 = 388-373)
Continue on the path. There is way too much of an importance placed on non-linear improvement. The Dolphins may look cheap by bringing back Philbin, in reality, they're just being patient. What the AFC East teams should really be doing is trying to place themselves best for 2016-17, when Brady will likely vacate the division. The Dolphins have their QB, they've gotten better each year with him, and should take another step up in 2015.
14.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6 = 474-400)
Find a QB. Philadelphia can do better than most without top QB play, but they still need better production than what Sanchez gave them late, and even what Foles gave them early. In reality, this team should've been closer to 8-8 if the didn't get a completely unsustainable number of defense and special teams TDs. That offense needs to be better, and it starts with the QB, no matter how QB-agnostic Chip Kelly tries to make his offense be.
13.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7 = 353-281)
Get a WR that can score a TD. Really, the only thing the Chiefs are missing is a WR that can be a real dependable weapon. There are options in FA this offseason that should work. The Chiefs have a nice roster everywhere else, assuming Alex Smith doesn't suddenly get worse. That defense could use some improvement in the secondary, but the Chiefs are a good team.
Award Picks
Coach of the Year
3.) Ron Rivera (CAR)
2.) Jason Garrett (DAL)
1.) Bruce Arians (ARZ)
Now that the Panthers are in the playoffs, I think Rivera deserves a mention, despite his team winning five fewer games than last year. Rivera kept the Panthers engaged after their 3-8-1 start. His hands on coaching with the defense actively improved the unit as the season went on. Their play the last four weeks was impressive, winning with backups, and piling up two 31-point blowouts on the road in division.
For Garrett, he's succeeded in a spot no one thought would, winning in Jerry's World. The Cowboys just went 12-4 with the most balanced offense in the NFL. I feel like this is getting somehow undervalued by the media. Jason Garrett proved me wrong. He's a very good coach, capable of doing great things when people stay healthy.
That all said, this was Arians award to lose since about Week 8. The Cardinals 2-4 end to the season isn't pretty, but most of that came with the 3rd/4th string QB. Even past the QB problems, he lost two of his best defenders for the season (Dockett, Daryl Washington), and lost Mathieu, Calais Campbell and Cromartie at various points. Despite all that he kept the Cardinals humming to a franchise-record tying 11-wins.
Defensive Player of the Year
3.) Darrelle Revis (CB - NE)
2.) Justin Houston (OLB - KC)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
Sure, Revis probably gets away with holding and contact that 'Random Dime-Back X' would get called for, but he's also tremendous. It took a little while for Revis to get going, but by the mid-point of the season he was back in full force, stopping each teams #1 with few exceptions.
2012 was the year of the sack, with Aldon Smith, JJ Watt and Von Miller each getting 18+. Now, those three were all amazing that year, and probably each had better years than the guy at #2 here, but Justin Houston was awesome in 2014. His 4-sack game put him at 22.0 for the year, the 2nd highest ever. He was absolutely dominant as a pass rusher, and did good work in the run game as well. It is amazing that he got 22 sacks and may not get a vote, and no one would feel slighted.
Why he won't get a vote is that JJ Watt is on track to be a Top-10 defensive player of all time. No one ever had two seasons of 20+ sacks until JJ Watt got his 2nd 20.5 sack season in three years. Watt was probably more dominant in 2012, when he had more hits and better play against the run. That said, having Watt match his 2012 performance to any degree is amazing.
Offensive Player of the Year
3.) Dez Bryant (WR - DAL)
2.) Antonio Brown (WR - PIT)
1.) Demarco Murray (RB - DAL)
No one QB really stood out this year, as no one had 5,000 yards for the first time since 2010, and no one had more than 40 TDs for the first time since 2012. Because of that, we look to other positions. Dez Bryant had an amazing year, catching 16 TDs on the team that threw the ball fewer than any team in the NFL.
It was really hard for me to decide who should win between Brown, quite easily the best receiver in the NFL this season, and Murray. Brown was so consistent this year it defied logic. He had at least 5 catches and at least 56 yards in every game. He gets so open for a guy who really isn't that big. Antonio Brown was the only veteran receiver apart from Heath Miller in that offense, but it worked so well because of his brilliance.
That all said, I think a guy who rushed for 1,845 yards, caught another 56 catches for 400 more yards wins this award. Yes, there is concern over his far-too-many 392 carries, and 449 total touches, but those are problems for the 2015 Cowboys. In 2014, they won 12 games and had a great offense, in large part because of how much Murray did for them.
Most Valuable Player
5.) Antonio Brown (WR - PIT)
4.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
3.) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
2.) Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
I didn't want to pick a 4th QB, so I'll give my #5 spot to Antonio Brown, who's usage rate for a WR was ridiculous. Quick note, I will be outraged if Tom Brady gets more than 1 or 2 homer votes. He already stole a vote from Manning last year. He actually had a far better season this time, but Brady quietly had an average last four games. That team's real MVP was Rob Gronkowski.
Watt is my 4th pick. He's is by some measure the best player in football, but when you adjust that a DE is simply not as meaningful a position as a QB, it is hard to really vote for him. Does this mean that a defensive player will never win MVP? Maybe. I do think if JJ Watt had this season in 2008 or 2009, when there was no clear MVP QB (Peyton won both years, but he wasn't as good in those years as Rodgers was this year), maybe Watt would deserve it, but that is just the state of the modern NFL. I will say if he does win, it will be better than when Adrian Peterson stole Manning's award in 2012.
I had a hard time placing Romo and Ben. They were, to me, the 2nd and 3rd best QBs in the NFL. They were #2 and #3 in passer rating. They had similar TD/INT ratios (34-9 for Romo, 32-9 for Ben). Edge to Roethlisberger for playing a bigger part by volume in their team's offense, as Roethlisberger threw it 173 more times than Romo, amassing 1200 more yards. For Roethlisberger to have his best efficiency season the same year as his best volume season is no easy feat. Both are dinged by the presence of other candidates on their team, and that does ultimately put Ben ahead of Romo for me. That said, for people who think Romo doesn't deserve it, he basically had the same season Brady did when Tom won in unanimously in 2010. Romo actually had a higher passer rating.
In the end, it should clearly be Aaron Rodgers winning his 2nd MVP award. He was definitely not as good as he was in 2011, but Rodgers was the best QB, combining the volume of Ben with the efficiency of Romo. There was only one black mark on his resume, his awful game against Buffalo, but him coming back injured and leading their division-winning game clinches a deserving award for the best QB in the NFL.
Playoff Primer's Coming Next
32.) Tennessee Titans (2-14 = 254-438)
Figure out of Ken Whisenhunt is a good coach. The Titans have no real shot at improvement if Whisenhunt can only coach with insane offensive talent or get a ridiculous string of luck to go 8-8 in 2011. There's really been no in-between with Whisenhunt, who's now gone 5-11, 5-11 and 2-14 in three of his last four seasons. I think he is a good coach, but he seems to not be a good war-time coach at all.
31.) Washington Redskins (4-12 = 301-438)
Figure out the RGIII mess. I wrote that exact same line last year. Somehow, despite the Redskins firing the Shanahans for no reason other than their inability to gel with RGIII (Jr. did well for himself, crafting a competent offense in Cleveland with nothing), the Redskins QB situation is more dire. Colt McCoy was used as a serious alternative. I have no idea how this ends. I just thank my lucky stars the Colts picked Luck.
30.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-13 = 249-412)
Hope Blake Bortles is good. Honestly, if he can step up his game, this can be a .500 team. The Jaguars have more talent than a normal 3-13 team, and assuming Gas Bradley stays, that defense can be average to slightly above average next season. Bortles was given little, and generally acquitted himself poorly, but if he has a sizable improvement, things won't be so dire.
29.) Oakland Raiders (3-13 = 253-452)
Actually spend money wisely and build something. The Raiders had all the money to spend last season and spent it stupidly on aging vets. Luckily for them they were mostly short-term deals they can go away from this year. What they need to do is build more around Derek Carr and Khalil Mack. The future is there, but what could help is knowing they'll be in LA; probably easier to attract talent.
28.) Chicago Bears (5-11 = 319-442)
Move on from Jay Cutler. Move away while he has some value. Obviously, no team is going through more structural changes than the Bears, firing the Team President, GM and Coach, but that anchor of a QB is still sitting there getting worse by the year. Sadly for the Bears, the talent in Chicago never aligned with Cutler's best years (2010-2011).
27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-14 = 277-410)
Draft Marcus Mariota and hope he is good. The Buccaneers could really be the 4th straight team to go from 2-14 and the #1 pick to over .500 (the '12 Colts and '13 Chiefs even made the playoffs). If Marcus Mariota can give the Buccaneers what Luck gave the Colts or Alex Smith gave the Chiefs, they can be a 8-8 team. That point differential does not spell 2-14, and that counts two massive blowouts that hurt them. They're a team that could surprise in 2015.
26.) New York Jets (4-12 = 283-401)
Re-Hire Rex Ryan. Obviously, that is not happening, but I still believe that firing Rex is short-sighted. Idzik was the real issue. That team was bereft of talent and Rex had them playing hard each week. In meaningless games down the stretch, the Jets played hard for Rex. What Rex needs is an offensive coordinator that can really build an offense.
25.) Cleveland Browns (7-9 = 299-337)
Commit to Johnny Manziel. I don't know if he's good. He was absolutely pathetic in his limited appearances. Of course, there were also reports of him partying and not putting the work in. Maybe that is a serious character issue that will never be resolved, but maybe that goes down if he knows he is the starter. It's a hope, but it could work.
24.) Houston Texans (9-7 = 372-307)
Keep paying the NFL to schedule backups to play them. The Texans went 9-7. That looks good, as does the +65 point differential and them continuing to employ JJ Watt, but here are the QBs that they beat: RGIII, Matt Schaub, EJ Manuel, Chaz Whitehurst (x2), Brian Hoyer, Zach Mettenberger, Blake Bortles (x2), and Joe Flacco. The only real QB they beat was Flacco. If they can get that schedule next year, they're golden.
23.) Atlanta Falcons (6-10 = 381-417)
Re-Hire Mike Smith. I'm usually not too critical over fires for teams that aren't near .500, but I think that was short-sighted. I get that Mike Smith made some in-game errors from time-to-time, but that team does not have too much talent and was ravaged by injuries. Thomas Dimitroff is as much to blame. This was a team that went 40 years without back-to-back winning seasons. They went 5-straight with Smith and tossed that away.
22.) New Orleans Saints (7-9 = 401-424)
Start the Re-Build Now. I get that Drew Brees probably does not have too many years left, but after a disastrous season trying to go all in and making their already bad cap situation even more dire, the Saints are in a really rough spot. This is the NFL, so if they go 12-4 next year it wouldn't be too shocking, but the Brees/Payton era has seemingly reached the 16th hole.
21.) Minnesota Vikings (7-9 = 325-343)
Re-Tool the Weapons for Teddy B. I don't think Bridgewater showed that he will be a very good QB, but showed that he will be at least decent. What isn't decent are the players around Teddy. Some of that is self-inflicted (Peterson), but some is aging (Greg Jennings) and misuse (Cordarrelle), but they need to surround Teddy with a little bit more to supplement that good defense.
20.) St. Louis Rams (6-10 = 324-354)
Find a real QB, not a stop-gap. Maybe that is giving Bradford one more chance on an incentive-laden contract, or getting one in the draft, or even trading for Jay Cutler, but Shaun Hill or Austin Davis is at best a stop-gap. The Rams have talent all over the place, and are better than that 6-10 record. They could make a push next year if they get the right signal caller.
19.) San Francisco 49ers (8-8 = 306-340)
Hope that Jim Harbaugh is not the one that got away. I'm not against this 'parting of ways' like I am with Rex or Mike Smith, because it seemed clear that Harbaugh himself wanted out. Still, losing a guy that went 44-19-1 is not easy. This team was the most consistent team in the NFC from 2011-2014. Jim Harbaugh revitalized football in San Francisco. That isn't easy to replicate.
18.) New York Giants (6-10 = 380-400)
Hope that ODB is not the new JPP, and that JPP becomes the new other ODB. Odell Beckham Jr. had the best season of a rookie WR ever, apart from Randy Moss. The Giants have a lot to look forward to with ODB. Of course, the Giants probably felt the same way about JPP after 2011, and he's been hurt and relatively underperforming ever since. As for JPP, they have to hope he can become the new Ol' Dirty.
17.) Buffalo Bills (9-7 = 343-289)
Get a QB by any means necessary. This is the team that could improve the most by simply adding an above average QB. An average QB would have had them in the playoffs if they didn't blow games against Houston due to EJ Manuel's incompetence, and Oakland due to Orton's. The Bills beat the Packers, let's not forget that. Their defense is excellent, and their offense has playmakers. If they can get a QB, and maybe that too is Cutler, they can make a good run. The problem is that getting a QB is not that easy.
16.) San Diego Chargers (9-7 = 348-348)
Hope you can stick with your top center. In reality, just be less injured. The Chargers have a good QB, solid weapons, and a young defense that got a lot better from the 2013 version. If the Chargers can get consistent o-line play that resembles league average, this is a playoff team. Much of that was injuries, not a need for new players.
15.) Miami Dolphins (8-8 = 388-373)
Continue on the path. There is way too much of an importance placed on non-linear improvement. The Dolphins may look cheap by bringing back Philbin, in reality, they're just being patient. What the AFC East teams should really be doing is trying to place themselves best for 2016-17, when Brady will likely vacate the division. The Dolphins have their QB, they've gotten better each year with him, and should take another step up in 2015.
14.) Philadelphia Eagles (10-6 = 474-400)
Find a QB. Philadelphia can do better than most without top QB play, but they still need better production than what Sanchez gave them late, and even what Foles gave them early. In reality, this team should've been closer to 8-8 if the didn't get a completely unsustainable number of defense and special teams TDs. That offense needs to be better, and it starts with the QB, no matter how QB-agnostic Chip Kelly tries to make his offense be.
13.) Kansas City Chiefs (9-7 = 353-281)
Get a WR that can score a TD. Really, the only thing the Chiefs are missing is a WR that can be a real dependable weapon. There are options in FA this offseason that should work. The Chiefs have a nice roster everywhere else, assuming Alex Smith doesn't suddenly get worse. That defense could use some improvement in the secondary, but the Chiefs are a good team.
Award Picks
Coach of the Year
3.) Ron Rivera (CAR)
2.) Jason Garrett (DAL)
1.) Bruce Arians (ARZ)
Now that the Panthers are in the playoffs, I think Rivera deserves a mention, despite his team winning five fewer games than last year. Rivera kept the Panthers engaged after their 3-8-1 start. His hands on coaching with the defense actively improved the unit as the season went on. Their play the last four weeks was impressive, winning with backups, and piling up two 31-point blowouts on the road in division.
For Garrett, he's succeeded in a spot no one thought would, winning in Jerry's World. The Cowboys just went 12-4 with the most balanced offense in the NFL. I feel like this is getting somehow undervalued by the media. Jason Garrett proved me wrong. He's a very good coach, capable of doing great things when people stay healthy.
That all said, this was Arians award to lose since about Week 8. The Cardinals 2-4 end to the season isn't pretty, but most of that came with the 3rd/4th string QB. Even past the QB problems, he lost two of his best defenders for the season (Dockett, Daryl Washington), and lost Mathieu, Calais Campbell and Cromartie at various points. Despite all that he kept the Cardinals humming to a franchise-record tying 11-wins.
Defensive Player of the Year
3.) Darrelle Revis (CB - NE)
2.) Justin Houston (OLB - KC)
1.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
Sure, Revis probably gets away with holding and contact that 'Random Dime-Back X' would get called for, but he's also tremendous. It took a little while for Revis to get going, but by the mid-point of the season he was back in full force, stopping each teams #1 with few exceptions.
2012 was the year of the sack, with Aldon Smith, JJ Watt and Von Miller each getting 18+. Now, those three were all amazing that year, and probably each had better years than the guy at #2 here, but Justin Houston was awesome in 2014. His 4-sack game put him at 22.0 for the year, the 2nd highest ever. He was absolutely dominant as a pass rusher, and did good work in the run game as well. It is amazing that he got 22 sacks and may not get a vote, and no one would feel slighted.
Why he won't get a vote is that JJ Watt is on track to be a Top-10 defensive player of all time. No one ever had two seasons of 20+ sacks until JJ Watt got his 2nd 20.5 sack season in three years. Watt was probably more dominant in 2012, when he had more hits and better play against the run. That said, having Watt match his 2012 performance to any degree is amazing.
Offensive Player of the Year
3.) Dez Bryant (WR - DAL)
2.) Antonio Brown (WR - PIT)
1.) Demarco Murray (RB - DAL)
No one QB really stood out this year, as no one had 5,000 yards for the first time since 2010, and no one had more than 40 TDs for the first time since 2012. Because of that, we look to other positions. Dez Bryant had an amazing year, catching 16 TDs on the team that threw the ball fewer than any team in the NFL.
It was really hard for me to decide who should win between Brown, quite easily the best receiver in the NFL this season, and Murray. Brown was so consistent this year it defied logic. He had at least 5 catches and at least 56 yards in every game. He gets so open for a guy who really isn't that big. Antonio Brown was the only veteran receiver apart from Heath Miller in that offense, but it worked so well because of his brilliance.
That all said, I think a guy who rushed for 1,845 yards, caught another 56 catches for 400 more yards wins this award. Yes, there is concern over his far-too-many 392 carries, and 449 total touches, but those are problems for the 2015 Cowboys. In 2014, they won 12 games and had a great offense, in large part because of how much Murray did for them.
Most Valuable Player
5.) Antonio Brown (WR - PIT)
4.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)
3.) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)
2.) Ben Roethlisberger (QB - PIT)
1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB - GB)
I didn't want to pick a 4th QB, so I'll give my #5 spot to Antonio Brown, who's usage rate for a WR was ridiculous. Quick note, I will be outraged if Tom Brady gets more than 1 or 2 homer votes. He already stole a vote from Manning last year. He actually had a far better season this time, but Brady quietly had an average last four games. That team's real MVP was Rob Gronkowski.
Watt is my 4th pick. He's is by some measure the best player in football, but when you adjust that a DE is simply not as meaningful a position as a QB, it is hard to really vote for him. Does this mean that a defensive player will never win MVP? Maybe. I do think if JJ Watt had this season in 2008 or 2009, when there was no clear MVP QB (Peyton won both years, but he wasn't as good in those years as Rodgers was this year), maybe Watt would deserve it, but that is just the state of the modern NFL. I will say if he does win, it will be better than when Adrian Peterson stole Manning's award in 2012.
I had a hard time placing Romo and Ben. They were, to me, the 2nd and 3rd best QBs in the NFL. They were #2 and #3 in passer rating. They had similar TD/INT ratios (34-9 for Romo, 32-9 for Ben). Edge to Roethlisberger for playing a bigger part by volume in their team's offense, as Roethlisberger threw it 173 more times than Romo, amassing 1200 more yards. For Roethlisberger to have his best efficiency season the same year as his best volume season is no easy feat. Both are dinged by the presence of other candidates on their team, and that does ultimately put Ben ahead of Romo for me. That said, for people who think Romo doesn't deserve it, he basically had the same season Brady did when Tom won in unanimously in 2010. Romo actually had a higher passer rating.
In the end, it should clearly be Aaron Rodgers winning his 2nd MVP award. He was definitely not as good as he was in 2011, but Rodgers was the best QB, combining the volume of Ben with the efficiency of Romo. There was only one black mark on his resume, his awful game against Buffalo, but him coming back injured and leading their division-winning game clinches a deserving award for the best QB in the NFL.
Playoff Primer's Coming Next
