The "Who Wants the #1 Pick" Sexto
32.) Tennessee Titans (2-11 = 220-374)
31.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-11 =
199-356)
30.) Oakland Raiders (2-11 = 200-350)
29.) Washington Redskins (3-10 = 244-346)
28.) New York Jets (2-11 = 214-349)
27.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-11 =
237-348)
I'm throwing the Redskins in here, but that kind of ruins the
beauty of so many 2-11 teams. One of my questions was how many teams would end
up with three or fewer wins. Seems like it will be a lot. I think in terms of
recent quality, the Titans are easily the worst. I did not expect the
Whisenhunt era to go this badly. Jacksonville is inept as well, as it is time
to start looking at Bortles' horrific play a little more carefully. Glad for
the Raiders, who responded darn well to that 52-0 loss. As for the Jets and
Bucs, I think they're the two best of the two-win teams. The Jets have played
tough the last two weeks, and the Bucs have played reasonably tough all year
with two glaring exceptions. If any team has a shot to do any sort of damage in
2015, it is the Bucs. They have two good receivers, a defense that if healthy
can be very competent, and that horrible division to play in.
The "What are we really
playing for" Quatro
26.) New York Giants
(4-9 = 293-326)
25.) New Orleans Saints
(5-8 = 333-359)
24.) Chicago Bears
(5-8 = 281-378)
23.) Atlanta Falcons (5-8
= 328-342)
The scary part of this grouping is that one of these four teams is
likely to make the playoffs. Well… one of two of the four teams. It may come
down to if the Saints can beat Chicago in Chicago on Monday Night. All four
have looked really bad at one time or the other. It is hard to forget that the
Giants went 7 games without winning, or that the Saints were 4-4, with four of
their next five at home, and proceeded to go 1-4. Then there is the Bears, who
alternate competence with unending incompetence on a regular basis. Finally we
get to the team that actually looked decent in a game they trailed 31-7 in. The
Falcons most certainly made the Packers earn it, but with no real defense to speak
of, Atlanta allowed them to earn it quite easily. Again, most likely either the
Saints or Falcons will be playing a home game in four weeks. I just hope the
Julio Jones who played yesterday shows up if it is Atlanta.
The "You're in it, but
you're really not in it" Quinto
22.) Houston Texans
(7-6 = 314-260)
21.) Minnesota Vikings
(6-7 = 263-281)
20.) Carolina Panthers
(4-8-1 = 269-341)
19.) Cleveland Browns
(7-6 = 276-270)
18.) Buffalo Bills
(7-6 = 281-241)
The Vikings are essentially out of it (technically they are
alive), while the Texans, Browns and Bills are getting the short end of the
stick right now. All three either have tough schedules (Houston, with Baltimore
and Indy), or a bunch of AFC losses (Browns, Bills). I think the Bills are the
best of the three teams, as that defense is consistently good. I really wouldn’t
be shocked if they play the Packers defense close all game. The Texans are, to
me, frauds built on that schedule. The Browns have the most medium-term upside
if Johnny Manziel is even close to capable. They haven’t had a QB play close to
capable in a long, long time. Finally we have the Panthers. I think right now
they are the best team in the NFC South. Their offense finally clicked, and
that defense has been playing pretty well for a few games now (they only gave
up 17 on defense last week). There is a reasonable path for them to win the
division. If they win out (Tampa and Cleveland at home, Atlanta in Atlanta),
and the Saints drop one more game, the Panthers win the NFC South. It would be hilarious
if the first team to repeat as NFC South Champions does it at 7-8-1.
The "Great NFC West
Intersection" Duo
17.) San Francisco 49ers
(7-6 = 244-268)
16.) St. Louis Rams
(6-7 = 285-285)
The 49ers are free-falling right now. Most of their top players
are either past 30, or huge injury/personal risks (Vernon Davis, Aldon Smith).
They are relying on a QB who seemingly peaked in the 2012 playoffs. Their coach
is basically gone already. Of course, everyone in the world wanted to suck on
Trent Baalke for his brilliant idea of drafting red-shirt guys that provide no
immediate value but were interesting prospects. Of course, that has come to
pass and they aren’t providing that immediate value. The 49ers are in the
league’s toughest division without a real plan. The Rams, on the other hand,
have a plan. The one problem is that the plan doesn’t include, yet, a QB. They
have everything else to some degree. I honestly think if Peyton Manning goes on
the Rams, that is a 13-3 team. Jeff Fisher’s defense has been dominant the past
8 games, giving up just 135 points, and 121 when you take away the two
defensive TDs against Arizona. Tavon Austin has come alive again, and Tre Mason
looks like a real player. If only they had a QB even as good as Kaepernick.
The "Week 1 AFC Fodder
at Best" Trio
15.) Cincinnati Bengals
(8-4-1 = 281-289)
14.) Kansas City Chiefs (7-6
= 291-241)
13.) Pittsburgh Steelers
(8-5 = 362-319)
12.) Miami Dolphins
(7-6 = 314-260)
If the playoffs started today, the Bengals and Steelers would both
be in the playoffs, and playing each other in the 4-5 game. In other words: who
wants to see a rematch of that 42-21 game we just saw?!?! Both teams are extremely
inconsistent and by rule one of them have to make the divisional round if they
do indeed play each other, but I don’t think either would deserve it. Do credit
Roethlisberger for his best season yet, though. That team might make the
playoffs but a tough schedule does not help. For the Dolphins and Chiefs, I
think they are, in a vacuum, the two best teams of this four-some, and probably
the two best even if you throw San Diego in, but those six losses are already
in the bank. What helps KC is that only four of them are AFC losses, and they
get a chance at both Pittsburgh and San Diego. Miami only has the four AFC
losses as well, but they have to go to New England next. I really can’t see a
9-7 team getting in, so they’ll have to beat New England in Foxboro, something no
AFC team has done against Tom Brady in the regular season since 2006 (that is
not a typo) to really have a chance.
The "Enigma's and Scary
Potential's if Wild Card Weekend" Trio
11.) Philadelphia Eagles
(9-4 = 389-309)
10.) San Diego Chargers
(8-5 = 293-272)
9.) Dallas Cowboys
(9-4 = 343-301)
I ranked these teams in my opinion of least to most likely to make
a run. The loss last week by the Eagles really hurts their chances of getting a
bye, as they lose tiebreakers to Zona, Seattle and Green Bay. They’ll have to
hold off Dallas, who with Tony Romo is really just a better team than the
Eagles with Mark Sanchez. I don’t expect the Eagles to play that badly again,
but I also don’t expect Dallas to play as badly as it did on Thanksgiving. It
will really be unfortunate when a Sanchez-led Eagles team makes the playoffs
over a Romo-led Cowboys team that is sitting at home. By the way, there is a
distinct chance they each finish 2-1 and we have an 11-win team missing the playoffs.
As for San Diego, that loss to New England was a great example of how
wonderfully weird the NFL is. New England winning was not a surprise, but the Chargers
defense playing really well for 3 quarters was. If not for a dubios OPI penalty
(to me, that was far worse than the Browner call) ruining a promising drive for
San Diego down 14-13, they might win. They can make damage in the AFC because
they have Philip Rivers. They won’t because they have a guy Rivers has never
seen before snapping the ball, but they can.
The "Dominant but
Inefficient" Duo
8.) Baltimore Ravens
(8-5 = 356-255)
7.) Indianapolis Colts
(9-4 = 407-307)
Here we have the Colts and the team that was once the Colts. The
Ravens are quietly #3 in point differential, and the only team that combines a
Top-8 scoring offense with a Top-8 scoring defense. The Colts are reasonably
close, with the #2 scoring offense and a Top-half defense. Both teams have
played pretty well all year long. The Colts and Ravens both have struggled
against the better teams (Colts losing to DEN, PHI, NE, PIT; Baltimore losing
to PIT, CINx2, SD and IND). Both have QBs playing well and offenses that can
score. They both have one area on defense that has been ravaged by injury, with
Baltimore’s secondary hiding behind a good pass rush, and the Colts pass rush
hiding behind a good scheme and a lot of games against bad teams. I don’t think
either could win, but the way the seedings currently align, assuming the Ravens
would win the division at the #4 seed, they both are slated to draw the AFC
Giant that they match up better with (Denver for the Colts and the Patriots for
Baltimore).
The "It's Still 1990,
right?" Duo
6.) Arizona Cardinals
(10-3 = 275-238)
5.) Detroit Lions (9-4
= 265-224)
Here is what I love about these two teams, the #1 and #3 scoring
defenses in the NFL. They both have looked really ugly at times. For the Lions,
it was scoring a combined 15 points in back-to-back losses, and winning two
straight games by one point after the NFC South. For Arizona, it was losing two
games in a row, and generally looking like they need good fortune to score 14
points these days. That said, they both play brands of football I like. They
represent two alternate ways of playing successful defense in the modern NFL.
The Cards blitz all the time because they have to, but it works so well. The
Lions almost never blitz, but since Suh is an animal, they swallow the run game
and ruin passing games. They are both in the thick of the playoff race, and
while the rest of the NFC field will feature all of the preseason favorites,
these two old-school interlopers would be a nice change, especially if the
Cardinals can somehow hang onto that division. And for the Lions, if they win
their next two games at home against Minnesota and at Chicago, they’ll play in
Week 17 to win the division and get a bye. That’s all you can really ask for
(of course, they’ll likely lose that game 38-7).
The "Sleeping Giant
that may not wake up" Uno
4.) Denver Broncos
(10-3 = 385-293)
I have one huge problem with the Broncos, and it isn’t the one you
are thinking of. It isn’t that Peyton Manning’s play has seemingly slipped the
last three weeks. First off, that is categorically untrue. He played
brilliantly against Miami two weeks ago in bad weather. He played great in the
1st half against Kansas City. And then against the best defense he’s
faced of the three, he played well apart from two badly thrown balls (one pick
was essentially a punt, though), and against Buffalo he had three really nice
throws. It is easy to look at less than 200 yards and think something is wrong.
What I think more is the run game has worked, they’ve gotten early leads, and
Manning spent the 2nd half of the Chiefs game throwing go route
after go route, seemingly for shits and giggles. My issue with Denver is that
they have the worst prevent defense in NFL history. They’ve blown large leads
to win less-than-fully comfortably way too many times this season (IND, KC,
NYJ, MIA, KC, BUF). That prevent defense routinely turns 31-10 thumpers into
31-24 hanger’s-on. That has to get fixed, and I think ti will given that the
underlying defense is still very good. But until they fix that, they really are
a truly sleeping, sleeping giant.
The "Awake Giants"
Trio
3.) New England Patriots
(10-3 = 401-267)
2.) Seattle Seahawks
(9-4 = 322-235)
1.) Green Bay Packers
(10-3 = 423-304)
Then you have your top three, who are really close together to me.
The Pats are holistically the best, with the best combination of big wins
against good teams (CIN, DEN, IND, SD), point differential and just good play.
The Seahawks defense is at a truly terrifying level the past three weeks, not
giving up 200 yards in any of them. The Packers offense at home is as scary as
the Seahawks defense, and they just beat the Patriots 10 days back. You can make the argument for any of them at
the #1 spot. It’s an obvious argument, and obvious doesn’t always work well in
the NFL.
Playoff Projections
AFC
1.) New England Patriots
= 13-3 (vs.MIA (w); @NYJ (w); vs.BUF (w))
2.) Denver Broncos =
13-3 (@SD (w), @CIN (w); vs.OAK (w))
3.) Indianapolis Colts
= 11-5 (vs.HOU (w), @DAL (l), @TEN (w))
4.) Baltimore Ravens =
11-5 (vs.JAX (w), @HOU (w), vs.CLE (w))
5.) San Diego Chargers
= 10-6
6.) Miami Dolphins =
9-7 (NO IDEA)
NFC
1.) Green Bay Packers
= 13-3 (@BUF (w), @TB (w), vs.DET (w)
2.) Arizona Cardinals
= 11-5 (@STL (w), vs.SEA (w), @SF (l))
3.) Philadelphia Eagles
= 11-5 (vs.DAL (w), @WAS (w), @NYG (l))
4.) Carolina Panthers
= 7-8-1 (vs.TB (w), vs.CLE (w), @ATL (w))
5.) Seattle Seahawks =
11-5 (vs.SF (w), @ARZ (l), vs.STL (w))
6.) Detroit Lions =
11-5 (vs.MIN (w), @CHI (w), @GB (l))
Previewing the Year-End
Awards
Coach of the Year
1.) Bruce Arians - ARZ
2.) Jason Garrett - DAL
3.) Andy Reid – KC
The Reid pick may be weird, but everyone thought they were taking
a massive step back this year. Instead, they are in the thick of things. He’s
crafted that offense to be passable despite no real outside target. Garrett is
also a strange choice given that a Cowboys collapse in December could mean the
end of his job, but to me he deserves credit. Dallas is not an easy situation,
and after a Week 1 game where the writing was on the wall, an offense built the
way he wants has spearheaded the Cowboys to close to a playoff berth. The real
answer is obvious though. Arians has his team, in the toughest division in the
NFL,, at 10-3, despite losing his starting QB, and basically all of his best
players at one point or the other. I think they’re basically a lock to make the
playoffs given they have h2h wins over all three main Wild Card competitors
(Dallas, Detroit, Philadelphia), and a playoff spot cements their case.
Defensive Player of the Year
1.) JJ Watt (DE – HOU)
2.) Justin Houston (OLB –
KC)
3.) Ndamukong Suh (DT – DET)
Last year a non-pass rushing linebacker won the award after 2012
was the year of the pass rusher. Well, 2014 is the year of the lineman again.
Suh gets a nod for being the key cog on the league’s 2nd best
defense, and beign a sturdy presence all year. Houston gets his spot for
leading the NFL with 16 sacks and numerous other good plays for the Chiefs.
Still, neither are close to Watt, who is on track to become one of the Greatest
Defensive Players of All Time.
Offensive Player of the Year
1.) Demarco Murray (RB –
DAL)
2.) Aaron Rodgers (QB – GB)
3.) Antonio Brown (RB – PIT)
3.) Antonio Brown (RB – PIT)
There are a lot of good candidates. Julio Jones is making a case
right now. Le’Veon Bell has been about as good as Murray for the last two
months. Peyton Manning was on pace to essentially have a season 90% as good as
last year until the last two games. Still, I think these three are pretty
clear. Brown is on pace for a season of 130-1,692-14 as his main three numbers,
which is insane. He’s caught at least five passes each game, and at least 8 in
every game since Week 7. Murray is on pace for 1,976 yards, with an additional
482 yards receiving. It is troublesome going forward that he’s also on pace for
393 carries and 460 touches overall, but that is a problem for the 2015
Cowboys. I’ll sandwhich Rodgers in the middle. You have to have an unreal volume
year to win this award as a QB, like Brees in 2011 or Manning in 2013. Rodgers
isn’t having that because the Packers don’t need him too. His year is more in
line, but better on paper, with Brady in 2010 (the year of his 36-4 TD-INT). In
some years that may be good enough, but with a guy pushing 2,000 yards for a
public team, I really doubt it.
Most Valuable Player
1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB-GB)
2.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
3.) Demarco Murray (RB-DAL)
4.) Andrew Luck (QB-IND)
5.) JJ Watt (DE-HOU)
Obviously, this is Rodgers award by a landslide right now. There’s
really no debate worth having with anyone else. His 119.0 passer rating is 10
points clear of anyone else (by the way, that anyone else is Tony Romo, at
108.8). His year is unreal in every way. I can’t see what would need to happen
for anyone else to get this award, apart from Rodgers slipping and Murray
having an insane final three weeks. I still have Manning 2nd because
he’s combined volume and efficiency better than anyone not named Rodgers for a
10-3 team that has missed players through the year. Luck I have ahead of Brady/Rivers/Ben/Romo
because he has the least help in terms of o-line and weapons, and is asked to
do the most. Murray for all of the reasons above, and Watt because he is not
from this ecosystem.
Ranking Next Week's Games
16.) Washington Redskins
(3-10) @ New York Giants (4-9) (1:00 - FOX)
15.) New York Jets (2-11)
@ Tennessee Titans (2-11) (4:05 - CBS)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars
(2-11) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-5) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
(2-11) @ Carolina Panthers (4-8-1) (1;)0 - FOX)
12.) Oakland Raiders (2-11)
@ Kansas City Chiefs (7-6) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it “The Parade of
2-11” Sunday, as we get all the 2-11 teams (and a 3-10 and 4-9) team in
this little bunch. The Jets and Titans have the decency to play each other,
which is nice. As do the Redskins and Giants. The other three 2-11 teams all go
on the road to play teams that are fighting for their playoff lives. If any of
those 2-11 teams come close to winning, that should be a serious warning on
whether to trust any of those fringe playoff teams.
11.) Minnesota Vikings
(6-7) @ Detroit Lions (9-4) (4:25 - FOX)
10.) Green Bay Packers
(10-3) @ Buffalo Bills (7-6) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Houston Texans (7-6)
@ Indianapolis Colts (9-4) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Cleveland Browns (7-6)
@ Cincinnati Bengals (8-4-1) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it “What are you fighting for?” Sunday, as all of these
games feature two teams alive for the playoffs. Yes, the Vikings are only technically
alive, but the Lions are trying to win 10 games for just the second time this
Century. The Packers play their last tough game outside of Lambeau maybe until
February against a Buffalo team that is built reasonably well to beat Green
Bay. The Texans try to stop the Colts from clinching the AFC South in a game
where we get to see if Watt can do what he nearly did in October: beat the
Colts single-handidly. Finally, the Browns start Manziel against the Bengals in
a rematch of that amazing TNF game no one will ever re-watch again.
7.) New Orleans Saints (5-8)
@ Chicago Bears (5-8) (MNF - ESPN)
6.) Arizona Cardinals (10-3)
@ St. Louis Rams (6-7) (TNF - NFLN)
I call it “You can’t win them all, ESPN” Thursday and Monday, as the
weekend is bookended by two very different games. The Saints and Bears probably
looked good on paper when the season started. ESPN was probably excited about this
one. Of course, it has become both a sign of how bad things are in Chicago, and
how pathetic the NFC South is. For the TNF game, it probably didn’t look as
appealing, but it really is very meaningful. The Rams will try to finish their season
sweep of the NFC West at home, and the Cardinals will try to pretty much ensure
their playoff spot prior to their two game finish with the Seahawks and 49ers.
Also… defense. We may see none of it in that first game despite it being
outdoors at night in Chicago, and we will see all of it in the 2nd
despite it being in a dome.
5.) Pittsburgh Steelers
(8-5) @ Atlanta Falcons (5-8) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it “Why do I like this game?” Sunday, as I fully admit I
forgot about this and then was too lazy to rearrange the list to place it
correctly. Either way, you get to see two QBs who can light up bad defense
(which both have), and two receivers who are the best two in the league this
year (Brown, Julio). That should be fun?
4.) Miami Dolphins (7-6)
@ New England Patriots (1:00 - CBS)
3.) Denver Broncos (10-3)
@ San Diego Chargers (8-5) (4:05 - CBS)
2.) San Francisco 49ers
(7-6) @ Seattle Seahawks (9-4) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it “A Division Rivalry For All the Stakes and All The
Schaudenfreude” Sunday, as we get three games featuring three big division
rivalries, where one team is assured of the playoffs and the other is very much
not so. The Chargers are at least in the driver’s seat and have a shot with a loss.
The Dolphins are basically done with a loss and the 49ers are probably done
today. Still, The Patriots can further their run for a #1 seed and end the
Dolphins season, a funny bit of vengeance considering how the season started (a
comfortable 33-20 win for Miami over New England). The Broncos can officially
wrap up the division and push the Chargers back to 8-6 with them having two
road games to finish. And then the real treat. Seattle can not only end a
season officially with a win, they can probably end the Jim Harbaugh era. This
rivalry started in 2012, reached its apex in 2013, and might flame out by the
end of 2014. I’ll say this about Steelers/Ravens, it had longer legs than this
one. Prediction: one of the underdogs wins outright, another plays close, and
one is a beatdown.
1.) Dallas Cowboys (9-4)
@ Philadelphia Eagles (9-4) (SNF - NBC)
Finally, no game means more than this for the week. The Cowboys
and Eagles are playing for every marble. The winner has the inside track at the
division (though the Cowboys do have the toughest game remaining of the 4
hosting the Colts next week). The Eagles home field advantage doesn’t look so
scary after last week, and Dallas doesn’t look so free-fall-y after last week.
I’m hoping this is a good one. We really haven’t gotten many good SNF games
this year (a trend really, with last year lacking to some degree as well). Here’s
the margin of victory of each SNF game this year: 7, 8, 18, 21, 26, 27, 25, 21,
20, 41, 22, 3, 16, 13, 9. That’s right, we had 9 straight Sundays where the
supposed best game was a 20+ point blowout. We’re due for a real treat, and I’m
hoping it is this. It could be the game next week, though. Sneak preview, that
one is Seattle @ Arizona.
