10.) Can the Cardinals somehow miss the playoffs?
The Cardinals started the season 9-1, at which point they had a 1-game lead over the entire conference (and they beat that one team). They started the season winning with multiple QBs, throwing deep all the team but somehow not throwing picks, and then playing great defense despite losing so many people. It was odd to watch, but so fun to watch as well. Then it all went to hell. This team lost a tough game to Seattle that was closer than the 19-3 score, but then lost a game that was very much as a bad as a 10-29 score. Can they somehow miss the playoffs? No one has ever started 9-1 and missed the playoffs. Their schedule still includes four tough games, the easiest of which might be the one right now. I doubt they will, given that they likely need just one more win to get in, but they are skating a really mighty line. It would be so awful if they miss the playoffs despite going 10-6 again.
9.) Do we get a historic number of 3-or-less loss teams?
Oakland, Jacksonville, New York (both teams), Tennessee, Washington, Tampa Bay and Carolina. All of those teams have won three or fewer games. All but one has a shot of going 3-13 (or in Carolina's case 3-12-1) or worse. Washington and the Giants do play each other, so barring another tie one of them will get a 4th win, but many there are some awful teams. I guess that is what happens when we have six teams in the AFC alone that are 7-5 right now. The bad teams are ultra bad this year. I don't have enough time to go back and see what year had the most 1-2-3 win teams, but this year might really challenge whatever that record is. In a year where we will definitely see at least 3 good teams miss the playoffs (right now, that is Baltimore, Kansas City and Dallas), we will also see 5+ teams go 3-12-1 or worse.
8.) Which coaches are getting fired?
Rex is almost definitely gone. Tony Sparano probably gets canned as an interim as well. I'm assuming Tom Coughlin retires quietly into the night as well. From there it becomes more interesting. Those awful teams I mentioned above either have first or second year coaches (Lovie, Gus Bradley, Whisenhunt, Jay Gruden), and I think the only one with a real chance to go is Jay Gruden if this RGIII thing gets messier. The interesting one's to me are the two other NFC South coaches. I happen to think neither Ron Rivera, who was done in by his roster and the cap purge, and Mike Smith, who is beloved, goes, but Smith is probably close to 50/50. Out of teams that aren't really that bad, here goes (from most likely to least):
1 - Jim Harbaugh: He's basically already gone. Where there is smoke, there is serious fire.
2 - Marc Trestman: the season has not gone well at all for a team that was so close to the playoffs last year. Worse really is the regression of the offense, which is really surprising. I think he goes if they finish below .500.
3 - Marvin Lewis: Just a hunch, if they miss the playoffs or fail to win a game when there again, I think he's gone. It has come to the point where even the Brown family can't keep paying a guy to never take this game beyond being merely good
4 - Jason Garrett: We'll get to this in a bit, but if they flame out again after a 7-1 start, I think Jerry Jones' patience will finally run out
7.) Can any QB (other than Rodgers) pull the MVP out of the hat?
Aaron Rodgers is your clear MVP through 12 weeks, beating his arguable top competitor head to head. He's probably not losing the award, but say they lose Week 17 to Detroit and lose that division, can anyone pull it away? Here's what the following have to do:
1 - Peyton Manning: I think he's the biggest competitor if he finishes great and comes close to that old magic 48 TD number and the Broncos wrestle away the #1 seed from New England
2 - Philip Rivers: I think he's the only other option. First, he has a shot at getting the #1 overall seed if the Chargers win out and Denver drops another game. He looked really good for the first time, and has two premier games coming up. What if he outduels Brady and Manning back-to-back?
3 - Andrew Luck: Just kidding, though he deserves to be higher than people think.
In the end, it will be Rodgers because he is at another level right now.
6.) Who Blinks First: Does NE or DEN get the #1 seed?
If they both win out, the Patriots get the #1 seed. If they both drop a game, the Patriots get the #1 seed. However, who is more likely to drop one more game than the other? They have similar schedules to a point. They both play the Chargers on the road, they both get one more game against a division weakling (Jets, Oakland). They both also get the Bills at home. The differences are the Broncos get a road MNF game in Cincinnati and the Patriots get Miami at home. That does favor the Patriots, but we've seen what Cincinnati does in primetime games. I think this is really close to 50/50, although that is part homerism. I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers upset the Patriots right here.
5.) Does an NFC South team get over .500?
Well, I should really say do the Saints or Falcons get over .500. Of course, they have to win out, so it probably is better to say if any of them can get to .500. I don't think the Saints or Falcons are cured of what ails them because of one good week. In fact, the Falcons will probably get blowed the eff out this Monday Night in Lambeau, and the Saints have to go to Chicago, a place they've struggled in when they were good. I think the Saints have an outside shot at 9-7, and a decent shot, given the relatively easy games they have left hosting Carolina and Atlanta at home and going to Tampa Bay. But wouldn't it be just like the 2014 NFC South for the Saints to drop a 4th home game in Week 16 and lose to Atlanta. I'm pretty sure the rest of the NFC is really rooting for Atlanta anyway. A trip to the Georgia Dome to face a team with no defense is probably more enticing than a trip to New Orleans, especially since New Orleans will probably get the Saturday night game, just to make it even more obvious we'll get the reverse of 2011 when a pathetic Saints team hosts and beats a far better NFC West/North team,
4.) Which AFC team has a disastrous finish?
Basically, what this is getting at is we have one Wild Card team at 8-4 (Chargers) and six teams at 7-5 (MIA, KC, PIT, CLE, BUF, BAL). One of those teams is going to have a crash and burn ending. Will it be the Dolphins, who end with two winnable games at home (just like last year), or Buffalo who has two darn tough road games? Maybe it is Pittsburgh, who has four tough games including two against Cincinnati, and where Tomlin is feeling the pressure of missing the playoffs with back-to-back 8-8 seasons? Maybe it is Cincinnati, who I didn't even mention, who ends with those two Pittsburgh games, but also hosting the Chiefs and going to Atlanta. Really, it could be anyone. My guess would be Cleveland does terribly here on out, as does Pittsburgh, and the Bills somehow finish 9-7.
3.) Can anyone stop the Packers from getting HFA?
The rest of the NFC better hope so. The fact that the Jets and Patriots went up there and played the Packers tough (I only bring up the Jets because it didn't end up being a good omen for them to play well in Lambeau, as everyone assumes it will be for New England) gives me some hope someone can make the NFC competitive if the Packers get the #1 seed, but then you have the case where in the other 4 games in Lambeau were over by 20 minutes into the game. The team that really has the best shot to beat them are the Bills. They have a d-line that can get massive pressure with 4 guys, and an offense that could maybe score 25 points. There's precedent too with Kyle Orton beating a superior Green Bay team, when he led the Chiefs to a win over the at the time 13-0 Packers. Even if that happens, all the Packers have to do is beat the Lions to get the division. From there it comes down to what the rest of the NFC does, but I find it hard to see the Cardinals losing just one more game, or the Seahawks winning out. Assuming those don't happen, a 3-1 finish for the Packers get the #1 seed, and an automatic trip to the Super Bowl.
2.) Can Dallas avoid their worst collapse yet?
The Cowboys are 8-4, but are currently out of the playoffs (that is what losing all your games to NFC teams will do to you). They still have to go to Chicago and play in frigid weather, and then go to Philadelphia the week after to try to avenge their awful Thanksgiving loss against a team yet to lose a home game. After all that they have to go to Washington who would love nothing better than end the Cowboys season again in FedEx Field for the 2nd time in 3 years. Of course, between all that they have to host the Colts, a team built to beat that bad Cowboys defense. The good news is for Dallas that they are 5-0 on the road so far, including wins in St. Louis (better win than it seemed in retrospect), and of course Seattle. Still, the Cowboys collapse looks so obvious on paper, like it is smacking you in the face. A Cowboys team that starts 6-1 and still misses the playoffs probably spells the end for Jason Garrett's time as a coach. What a downfall for a team that beat Seattle handily in Seattle.
1.) Can a new team break into the AFC Picture?
As we speak, the Dolphins are the #6 seed because of the 19th tiebreaker that is separating six teams at 7-5. One of those other teams at 7-5 is the Chiefs, who have a head-to-head win over Miami, and have a chance to get one over Pittsburgh. The other five playoff teams as we speak or the Pats, Broncos, Colts, Bengals, and Chargers. What connects those five teams? They all made the playoffs last year. So did the Chiefs, who are tied for that #6 seed. Never before have all six playoff teams repeated since the 2002 realignment. The AFC has been in a cycle of same-ness really since the Jets fell in 2011. Five teams made it back in 2012 (the Colts replacing the Steelers being the one switch). Four made it back last year (Chargers and Chiefs replacing Houston and Baltimore). It looks like a decent bet at least 5 will make it back this time. The last time 50% of the playoff field in the AFC turned over (which is about average), was in 2009, when the Pats, Jets and Bengals broke the playoff field. The AFC has really been a tough club to break into since then, with few teams doing it and rarely going far. That's how we get the same three QBs winning the AFC all but one season since 2003 (Flacco), or the same four stadiums hosting title games every year since 2003. When will it end? Probably when Manning and Brady retire.
The Cardinals started the season 9-1, at which point they had a 1-game lead over the entire conference (and they beat that one team). They started the season winning with multiple QBs, throwing deep all the team but somehow not throwing picks, and then playing great defense despite losing so many people. It was odd to watch, but so fun to watch as well. Then it all went to hell. This team lost a tough game to Seattle that was closer than the 19-3 score, but then lost a game that was very much as a bad as a 10-29 score. Can they somehow miss the playoffs? No one has ever started 9-1 and missed the playoffs. Their schedule still includes four tough games, the easiest of which might be the one right now. I doubt they will, given that they likely need just one more win to get in, but they are skating a really mighty line. It would be so awful if they miss the playoffs despite going 10-6 again.
9.) Do we get a historic number of 3-or-less loss teams?
Oakland, Jacksonville, New York (both teams), Tennessee, Washington, Tampa Bay and Carolina. All of those teams have won three or fewer games. All but one has a shot of going 3-13 (or in Carolina's case 3-12-1) or worse. Washington and the Giants do play each other, so barring another tie one of them will get a 4th win, but many there are some awful teams. I guess that is what happens when we have six teams in the AFC alone that are 7-5 right now. The bad teams are ultra bad this year. I don't have enough time to go back and see what year had the most 1-2-3 win teams, but this year might really challenge whatever that record is. In a year where we will definitely see at least 3 good teams miss the playoffs (right now, that is Baltimore, Kansas City and Dallas), we will also see 5+ teams go 3-12-1 or worse.
8.) Which coaches are getting fired?
Rex is almost definitely gone. Tony Sparano probably gets canned as an interim as well. I'm assuming Tom Coughlin retires quietly into the night as well. From there it becomes more interesting. Those awful teams I mentioned above either have first or second year coaches (Lovie, Gus Bradley, Whisenhunt, Jay Gruden), and I think the only one with a real chance to go is Jay Gruden if this RGIII thing gets messier. The interesting one's to me are the two other NFC South coaches. I happen to think neither Ron Rivera, who was done in by his roster and the cap purge, and Mike Smith, who is beloved, goes, but Smith is probably close to 50/50. Out of teams that aren't really that bad, here goes (from most likely to least):
1 - Jim Harbaugh: He's basically already gone. Where there is smoke, there is serious fire.
2 - Marc Trestman: the season has not gone well at all for a team that was so close to the playoffs last year. Worse really is the regression of the offense, which is really surprising. I think he goes if they finish below .500.
3 - Marvin Lewis: Just a hunch, if they miss the playoffs or fail to win a game when there again, I think he's gone. It has come to the point where even the Brown family can't keep paying a guy to never take this game beyond being merely good
4 - Jason Garrett: We'll get to this in a bit, but if they flame out again after a 7-1 start, I think Jerry Jones' patience will finally run out
7.) Can any QB (other than Rodgers) pull the MVP out of the hat?
Aaron Rodgers is your clear MVP through 12 weeks, beating his arguable top competitor head to head. He's probably not losing the award, but say they lose Week 17 to Detroit and lose that division, can anyone pull it away? Here's what the following have to do:
1 - Peyton Manning: I think he's the biggest competitor if he finishes great and comes close to that old magic 48 TD number and the Broncos wrestle away the #1 seed from New England
2 - Philip Rivers: I think he's the only other option. First, he has a shot at getting the #1 overall seed if the Chargers win out and Denver drops another game. He looked really good for the first time, and has two premier games coming up. What if he outduels Brady and Manning back-to-back?
3 - Andrew Luck: Just kidding, though he deserves to be higher than people think.
In the end, it will be Rodgers because he is at another level right now.
6.) Who Blinks First: Does NE or DEN get the #1 seed?
If they both win out, the Patriots get the #1 seed. If they both drop a game, the Patriots get the #1 seed. However, who is more likely to drop one more game than the other? They have similar schedules to a point. They both play the Chargers on the road, they both get one more game against a division weakling (Jets, Oakland). They both also get the Bills at home. The differences are the Broncos get a road MNF game in Cincinnati and the Patriots get Miami at home. That does favor the Patriots, but we've seen what Cincinnati does in primetime games. I think this is really close to 50/50, although that is part homerism. I wouldn't be shocked if the Chargers upset the Patriots right here.
5.) Does an NFC South team get over .500?
Well, I should really say do the Saints or Falcons get over .500. Of course, they have to win out, so it probably is better to say if any of them can get to .500. I don't think the Saints or Falcons are cured of what ails them because of one good week. In fact, the Falcons will probably get blowed the eff out this Monday Night in Lambeau, and the Saints have to go to Chicago, a place they've struggled in when they were good. I think the Saints have an outside shot at 9-7, and a decent shot, given the relatively easy games they have left hosting Carolina and Atlanta at home and going to Tampa Bay. But wouldn't it be just like the 2014 NFC South for the Saints to drop a 4th home game in Week 16 and lose to Atlanta. I'm pretty sure the rest of the NFC is really rooting for Atlanta anyway. A trip to the Georgia Dome to face a team with no defense is probably more enticing than a trip to New Orleans, especially since New Orleans will probably get the Saturday night game, just to make it even more obvious we'll get the reverse of 2011 when a pathetic Saints team hosts and beats a far better NFC West/North team,
4.) Which AFC team has a disastrous finish?
Basically, what this is getting at is we have one Wild Card team at 8-4 (Chargers) and six teams at 7-5 (MIA, KC, PIT, CLE, BUF, BAL). One of those teams is going to have a crash and burn ending. Will it be the Dolphins, who end with two winnable games at home (just like last year), or Buffalo who has two darn tough road games? Maybe it is Pittsburgh, who has four tough games including two against Cincinnati, and where Tomlin is feeling the pressure of missing the playoffs with back-to-back 8-8 seasons? Maybe it is Cincinnati, who I didn't even mention, who ends with those two Pittsburgh games, but also hosting the Chiefs and going to Atlanta. Really, it could be anyone. My guess would be Cleveland does terribly here on out, as does Pittsburgh, and the Bills somehow finish 9-7.
3.) Can anyone stop the Packers from getting HFA?
The rest of the NFC better hope so. The fact that the Jets and Patriots went up there and played the Packers tough (I only bring up the Jets because it didn't end up being a good omen for them to play well in Lambeau, as everyone assumes it will be for New England) gives me some hope someone can make the NFC competitive if the Packers get the #1 seed, but then you have the case where in the other 4 games in Lambeau were over by 20 minutes into the game. The team that really has the best shot to beat them are the Bills. They have a d-line that can get massive pressure with 4 guys, and an offense that could maybe score 25 points. There's precedent too with Kyle Orton beating a superior Green Bay team, when he led the Chiefs to a win over the at the time 13-0 Packers. Even if that happens, all the Packers have to do is beat the Lions to get the division. From there it comes down to what the rest of the NFC does, but I find it hard to see the Cardinals losing just one more game, or the Seahawks winning out. Assuming those don't happen, a 3-1 finish for the Packers get the #1 seed, and an automatic trip to the Super Bowl.
2.) Can Dallas avoid their worst collapse yet?
The Cowboys are 8-4, but are currently out of the playoffs (that is what losing all your games to NFC teams will do to you). They still have to go to Chicago and play in frigid weather, and then go to Philadelphia the week after to try to avenge their awful Thanksgiving loss against a team yet to lose a home game. After all that they have to go to Washington who would love nothing better than end the Cowboys season again in FedEx Field for the 2nd time in 3 years. Of course, between all that they have to host the Colts, a team built to beat that bad Cowboys defense. The good news is for Dallas that they are 5-0 on the road so far, including wins in St. Louis (better win than it seemed in retrospect), and of course Seattle. Still, the Cowboys collapse looks so obvious on paper, like it is smacking you in the face. A Cowboys team that starts 6-1 and still misses the playoffs probably spells the end for Jason Garrett's time as a coach. What a downfall for a team that beat Seattle handily in Seattle.
1.) Can a new team break into the AFC Picture?
As we speak, the Dolphins are the #6 seed because of the 19th tiebreaker that is separating six teams at 7-5. One of those other teams at 7-5 is the Chiefs, who have a head-to-head win over Miami, and have a chance to get one over Pittsburgh. The other five playoff teams as we speak or the Pats, Broncos, Colts, Bengals, and Chargers. What connects those five teams? They all made the playoffs last year. So did the Chiefs, who are tied for that #6 seed. Never before have all six playoff teams repeated since the 2002 realignment. The AFC has been in a cycle of same-ness really since the Jets fell in 2011. Five teams made it back in 2012 (the Colts replacing the Steelers being the one switch). Four made it back last year (Chargers and Chiefs replacing Houston and Baltimore). It looks like a decent bet at least 5 will make it back this time. The last time 50% of the playoff field in the AFC turned over (which is about average), was in 2009, when the Pats, Jets and Bengals broke the playoff field. The AFC has really been a tough club to break into since then, with few teams doing it and rarely going far. That's how we get the same three QBs winning the AFC all but one season since 2003 (Flacco), or the same four stadiums hosting title games every year since 2003. When will it end? Probably when Manning and Brady retire.
