TO
50.) Demaryius Thomas (WR-DEN)
Well, Josh McDaniels seems to do much better drafting wide receivers than QBs. Demaryius Thomas didn't really have a chance with Tebow spraying balls everywhere, but Peyton Manning comes in and Demaryius becomes dominant. His 67% catch rate is excellent for a guy that was hovering around 50% up till this year. Thomas was able to run more intermediate and short routes, including sweet screen pass TDs in the opener and the divisional round loss. Thomas will probably retain his targets more than Decker with the arrival of Welker, which should do nothing but make him even better in 2013.
49.) Larry Fitzgerald (WR-ARZ)
Larry Fitzgerald struggled in the relative sense in 2010-11 with the Kolb's and Hall's and Anderson's as his QBs (90-1137-6 and 80-1411-8 those two years), but he couldn't continue that magician trick to the Skelton's and Lindley's. Fitzgerald was the worst, by DYAR, WR in the NFL in 2012, which shows you just how interconnected football is. With Carson Palmer, who is an actual living QB with some amount of talent, Fitzgerald should have a nice season for once.
48.) Vernon Davis (TE-SF)
There was a story coming into the playoffs that Davis was upset about how he was marginalized in the offense with Kaepernick at QB. Of course, he had a great playoffs, especially the final two games, and those stories go away. He is still the most gifted TE in the NFL outside of Gronkowski, but Davis never misses games. His catch rate has always been good, and his playoff performance portends some big things for Vernon Davis in 2013.
47.) Vince Wilfork (DT-NE)
The days of true Nose Tackles are dwindling as most schemes want players who can play both the nose and the 4-3 DT (which WIlfork can do), but Vince was about as good as they come. He's been less of a pass rushing threat since the Patriots moved to more of a base 4-3, but his run defense is as good as ever. He still commands double teams all the time. The Patriots picked him over Richard Seymour, and it is hard to say they failed in that choice in any way.
46.) Terrell Suggs (OLB-BAL)
I still think Terrell Suggs came back too soon as he was not even close to normal Terrell Suggs for the portion of the regular season he did play. He was back to being about 80% of prime Suggs in the playoffs and he should be all the way back this year, but it was sad seeing Suggs as muted as he was for much of 2012. With Pual Kruger, they need the 2011 Suggs back, when he was second in the league in hurries and had an all-around dominant season. We could get it, and as a lover of the Ravens defense, I hope we do.
45.) NaVarro Bowman (ILB-SF)
Patrick Willis vs. NaVarro Bowman is such a close contest. In the Bowman section (which is still to come), I'll talk more about him in generalities, so here I'll do a comparison. Both are surprisingly mediocre in FO's run defense metrics, but amass such a huge amount of plays it hardly matters. Bowman and Willis were essentially equals in pass coverage, which is so important given the rising importance of teh slot and TEs in NFL offenses. Bowman was used less as a blitzer and had a few more broken tackles. Basically, instead of being about as good as possible for a 3-4 ILB like Willis, Bowman was about 90% as good.
44.) Jake Long (T-STL)
Jake Long had his worst year at the wrong time (heading into free agency). Of course, his worst year was still quite good and he got paid nicely, but Jake Long definitely had his worst season. Of course that season means that he gave up four sacks and 14 pressures, instead of like two sacks and 10 pressures. He did have one of his best run blocking seasons. The Rams are counting on him to save the promise of Sam Bradford. Big job, but he should be able to do it.
43.) Earl Thomas (S-SEA)
Defensive Backs from Texas are a precarious selection in the draft, just see the careers of Quentin Jammer (long, underwhelming career for a #5 pick), Aaron Ross and Michael Huff. Earl Thomas has ended all that little trend quite nicely. He had a great rookie season in 2010 and has gained steam since then. Teams just avoid throwing to Thomas, as his 26 targets are incredibly low for a Free Safety, which speaks to how well he takes away deep routes. Thomas is the guy who allows Browner and Sherman to play the way they play. He's the glue that holds that whole thing together.
42.) Brandon Marshall (WR-CHI)
Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler can make some sweet, sweet music together. His advanced stats aren't too pretty mainly because no one else can even make decent music with Jay Cutler, so Marshall was targeted 195 times. He was a great red zone threat (11 TDs) and at times was uncoverable. The other advantage of pairing Marshall and Cutler is that with Jay, Marshall seems to act better. Maybe that is just coincidence and Marshall has his mental issues that he has alluded to under control. Either way, Marshall seems happy and in control off and on the field.
41.) Calais Campbell (DE-ARZ)
Calais Campbell had an excellent season for a 3-4 DE. Of course, we live in a world where JJ Watt exists in human form, so it gets lost, but 6.5 sacks with 18.5 additional hurries is other-worldly as a DE. He was very good against the run once again and was more active than any 3-4 DE other than a certain Houstonian. To further to Watt comparison, he was 2nd in the NFL in tipping passes with 7. So what if Watt had 160% more. Campbell shouldn't be compared to Watt but be compared to his role, where he is about as good as any team should expect.
40.) Jamaal Charles (RB-KC)
Lost in what Adrian Peterson was doing, Jamaal Charles returned from an ACL tear with another stellar season. He still has the highest yards per carry in NFL history at 5.8. Of course, last year it was 5.3, so that number will eventually drop down as his career goes on, but he remains one of the few every-down backs in the NFL. He has never been any sort of dynamic receiving threat which is odd given his speed, but one cannot be perfect. Charles should have a nice season given that he had no help on that Chiefs offense in 2012.
39.) Logan Mankins (G-NE)
Through injuries and age, it is likely Mankins will slip to being the 2nd or 3rd best Patriots lineman soon, but he continues to be an exceptional guard. He was pinned with just 0.5 sacks and 3.5 pressures allowed all year long (he did play only 10 games, but those numbers are still great). With his performances in previous years, he still holds a super high ranking in my mind, and when he is on the field he still performs well, but he doesn't seem as quick as he used to. Still, his career is a testament to how good Dante Scarnecchia is as an O-Line coach.
38.) Matt Ryan (QB-ATL)
Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco will be linked for being drafted in the same draft back in 2008, and now Flacco has a ring, while Matt Ryan finally got his first playoff win. Because of the 'TEH RINGZZ' argument, many have Flacco as the better player, but that is insane. Ryan threw it more often than ever in 2012, and not only held his value over more throws but had his best season to date, with a career high 68.6% completion percentage and a career high yards per attempt. And then, in that same playoff loss to the 49ers, Matt Ryan was almost undoubtedly the best player on the field that day. His time is coming, and even if it isn't, he is still better than Joe Flacco.
37.) Antonio Cromartie (CB-NYJ)
Football Outsiders' notes that Antonio Cromartie is one of just two Corners to be in the Top-10 of both success rate and yards per pass allowed in two of the last three seasons (the other in Asante Samuel). This year he was exactly #10 in both, but he was without Revis alongside him for much of this year. Without Revis, Cromartie needed to step up and he did just that, playing some of the best football of his life. He was even good in run defense. If he just remembered the names and ages of his kids two summers ago, he probably would have been thought of a lot better around the league by fans.
36.) Jason Pierre-Paul (DE-NYG)
Jason Pierre-Paul fell from 16.5 sacks in 2011 to 6.5 in 2012, so why does he only fall six spots? Because his hurries only fell by .5 (from 25 to 24.5), so that sack total, like a batter who has an abnormally low BABIP, is bound to go up next year. He was better as a run defender in 2012 than in 2011. He didn't get as much help from the surrounding players in 2012. Jason Pierre-Paul had some lingering issues (though that could be deflection) and is still just 24. There is no reason to believe that the 2011 season is as good as he will ever get. There is far less reason to believe that 2012 is his true level of play.
35.) Marshawn Lynch (RB-SEA)
In a league with few every-down backs, Lynch is right up there with any in the NFL. He had a career best 5.0 yards per carry, as he flourished after the Seahawks switched to a more read-option attack. He had the 2nd most DYAR of any running back (behind you-know-who), and this was all after a very good 2011 season without the benefit of Wilson and a good passing game to take pressure off of him. Lynch is even an awesome red zone back; not many holes in his game overall.
34.) Tamba Hali (OLB-KC)
Tamba Hali actually had his worst season in some time, but given his incredible play with no help from 2010-11, I can forgive 'just' 9 sacks and 15.5 hurries. Hali is now 30, and while that position generally ages well, his peak might be over. He looked a step slower at times in 2012 and this was with legitimate players around him in the defense like Justin Houston. Still, as a reward for peerless performance with no help, Hali is always a star in my book.
33.) Chris Long (DE-STL)
Chris Long was picked #2 in the same draft that Jake Long was picked #1. Of course, Matt Ryan was picked #3, but it is hard to say the Rams failed with the Chris Long pick. He led the NFL with 33.5 hurries in 2012, and if he turns even 25% of those into sacks he could get around 17-18 sacks in 2013. Of course, he's a dominant run defender for a 4-3 DE, which is basically just the cherry on top of an amazing Sundae.
32.) Justin Smith (DT-SF)
Yes, Justin Smith had a down year plagued with late-season injuries. Of course, he was downright dominant in 2011 after years of good to very good play before that, so we can excuse his year with 11 hurries and 61 run stops as a flukey low year. That is still a very good year for a 3-4 DE that isn't always allowed to play as freely as JJ Watt. Of course, Justin's real impact was felt when he was out and the 49ers defense semi-fell apart.
31.) AJ Green (WR-CIN)
AJ Green was downright dominant early in the season, but fell of a bit late. Of course, so did Andy Dalton, and as Larry Fitzgerald proves every day in Arizona, when a receiver suddenly falls off it is often because of the QB. AJ Green also gets the Steve Smith treatment where he gets double teamed every play as the Bengals have few other targets worth caring about. He still has more physical gifts than any receiver not named Johnson or Jones, but he needs to get on page even more with Dalton for it all to come together.
30.) Marshal Yanda (G-BAL)
Marshal Yanda had about as good of a year at Guard as possible. He didn't allow a sack and was noted for just one blown block on a running play as per Football Outsiders. If you want to pick a bone with him it is the six penalties, but those fluctuate (he had far less in 2011). The Ravens line has gone through a lot of change over the past three seasons, but Yanda's been a constant and about as good a constant as the Ravens could have hoped for.
29.) Ndamukong Suh (DT-DET)
The worst thing that happened to Ndamukong Suh (other than repeated Personal Foul penalties) was his 10 sacks as a rookie. He only had 4 in 2011 and now 8 in 2012, but that doesn't mean he is any worse. He had a ridiculous 27.5 hurries in 2012 (after 18 in 2010 and 24 last year), and he had his most dominant run season yet, ranking #4 in stop rate out of all lineman. His best stat might be his 22 QB hits, which was up from 7 his first two years. Ndamukong Suh in many ways had his best year yet. If that team can just start winning close games, he might get back on that HOF track once again.
28.) Charles Tillman (CB-CHI)
Peanut Tillman was a trendy DPOY pick before JJ Watt went all Reggie White on the NFL, but Tillman's season was still quite special. He had a ridiculous 10 forced fumbles. Sure, that is a fluke, but it still happened. My favorite Tillman stat is that he has six interceptions over the past two seasons, and returned five of those for TDs. He ranked #7 in yards per pass allowed, which is the mark of a true Cover-2 coverage maven. Considering the success of guys like Champ Bailey and Ronde Barber, it is conceivable to see Tillman playing quite well for some time to come.
27.) Ben Roethlisberger (QB-PIT)
It is unclear whether Roethlisberger and the rest of the Steelers offense really fits what Tood Haley is trying to do (namely, throw short more), but Ben had another really nice season, with a 26-8 TD-INT ratio. Ben also cut his sacks down to a new low. As long as Ben can stay healthy, which is a huge question mark, he remains the most underrated QB in the NFL, which is shocking considering he has two rings and a better playoff win % than Tom Brady (10-4 > 17-7). He is becoming more and more of a pure pocket passer, but as his stats show, he can do that damn well.
26.) Ray Rice (RB-BAL)
Ray Rice definitely looked tired in the playoffs, as Bernard Pierce behind the same line ran a lot better in the AFC Title Game and Super Bowl, but Ray Rice remains the best dual-threat at running back in the NFL. He had 61 catches on 83 targets to supplement his constantly great running and underrated blocking. Bernard Pierce will continue to steal attempts away from Rice, but that may keep Rice fresh later in seasons. Now if only he could stop fumbling in playoff games...
25.) Duane Brown (T-HOU)
Duane Brown's reputation is built off his great play from 2010-11, and while he was very good in 2012, he wasn't excellent as he was those two years. He gave up three sacks and had 7 blown blocks on running plays. These are fine numbers for all but like five left tackles, but he is one of those five. Chances are it was a fluke. He is still just 28, meaning that he should have another four years or so at this high, high level.
24.) Cameron Wake (DE-MIA)
It is time to start realizing just how good Cameron Wake has been since he came into the NFL back in 2009. This past year was his Magnum Opus, though. 15 sacks, 27.5 hurries, incredible activity in the run game (admittedly to average results), just unbelievable play all year long. He made a seamless transition to a 4-3 DE after spending his first three years as a 3-4 OLB. Bill Parcells didn't do a whole lot great in Miami other than signing Chad Pennington and not ordering his team to stop running the gimmick that was The Wildcat, but Cameron Wake should be his lasting memory of his Miami tenure, unearthing this gem from Canada.
23.) Julio Jones (WR-ATL)
Greg Little, Brandon Weeden and a pick used in the package for Phil Taylor. That is what Cleveland got in the trade that allowed the Falcons to pick Julio Jones. The Falcons were slammed for the deal then, but when he went off on the 49ers for 11 catches and 182 yards and two TDs in the NFC Championship Game (I was wrong when I said Matt Ryan was the best player on the field), no one sent the Falcons apologies. We all should. Jones will soon take over from White the plurality of Matt Ryan's targets, and that will only be a good thing for the Falcons. They have the best under-30 WR in the NFL not named Megatron.
22.) Eric Weddle (S-SD)
Move over Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu, there is a new best safety in the NFL. Eric Weddle had a very good year in 2011. In some ways, against the pass Weddle was better in 2010 & 2011 than this past year (he was Top-10 in success rate and yards allowed in both years, dropped to 15/8 in 2012), but this was the first time Weddle was great against the run. He was Top-10 in both stop rate and yards allowed on run plays. He was avoided more this year, the sign of a truly great safety. Weddle is just entering his Age 28 year, so there is a long time left to pad that resume. Because of the team he plays on he will likely never get the praise he deserves, but he is undeoubtedly the best safety in the NFL right now.
21.) Ryan Clady (T-DEN)
Ryan Clady had his best year in 2012. Of course, the job of a Left Tackle when Peyton Manning is your QB is a bit easier than when Tim Tebow is your QB. He was noted for just one sack and just four blown blocks in the run game, which was the lowest of any full-time Broncos starter. He barely got any help all year long thanks to the help Orlando Franklin needed on the other side, but Clady still managed to play well enough that the Broncos had no choice but to sign him Long Term.
