TO
100.) Robert Griffin III (QB-WAS)
Robert Griffin was really great in his first season, but he had a lot of help. First, he was incubated in a passing scheme that almost shied away from tough throws. He led the league in % of attempts that were screen passes. He fattened up his passer rating by a bunch of non conversions of safe throws on 3rd down. Still, his running impact made that zone-read offense work. He made those lineman seem better. He made Alfred Morris look better. He has a brilliant arm when given the opportunity. Robert Griffin needs to get better, but that doesn't mean I'm hating on his awesome rookie season. I hope he recovers from that knee injury. I hope he's terrorizing every team but my teams for years to come.
99.) Robert Mathis (OLB-IND)
Robert Mathis, much like Dwight Freeney who ranked a lot lower, was a career 4-3 DE plugged into a 3-4 OLB position. His transition there worked and didn't. Given his slight frame and reputation, it was shocking to see how good he was against the run (ranking #10 and #11 in Football Outsiders' two main rush defense statistics). On the other side, he wasn't as good rushing the passer. He did get eight sacks, but didn't get too many pressures outside of those sacks. Mathis fared better in the 3-4 than Freeney, and it could be that in his second year playing it he will adjust better to the pass rush aspect of his role.
98.) Jonathan Sullivan (C-MIN)
Jonathan Sullivan was a lot better in 2012 protecting Christan Ponder than he was opening holes for Adrian Peterson, which is bizarre. Football Outsiders' has him for more blown blocks on run plays than any other center. That sounds bad, but his one sack allowed, two penalties and just 3.5 pressures allowed are great, especially when protecting a QB like Ponder. He's only 28, so he still has some more years left in his prime, which is a nice thought for a Vikings fan.
97.) Bobby Wagner (ILB-SEA)
Bobby Wagner performance in his first year is lost in the impact of the plays he had. He didn't have many sacks or pressures, and wasn't great at stoning runners near the line. No, where Wagner's value came from was the incredible volume of those numbers. He made more plays than almost any linebacker in the league, constantly around the ball. The recognition was there, but the speed and reaction wasn't, which is why he didn't have the splash plays. Those are coming.
96.) Andy Levitre (G-TEN)
Andy Levitre was the top free agent guard this past offseason, and the Titans swooped him up in hopes of him helping turn around their run game to the consistent force it was back in 2009-2010. Of course, it would help if Levitre's main skill was run blocking, which it isn't. Levitre main value comes in him being about as good a pass protecting left guard as their is the NFL. His run blocking is OK, but with the state of the Titans line and Chris Johnson, they needed a premier run blocker. Jake Locker should be ecstatic with the Levitre pickup, but CJ1K, and more importantly his fantasy owners, might not be.
95.) Brian Cushing (ILB-HOU)
If you want to pinpoint the moment that the Texans dropped from 'best team in the NFL' to 'team that could be exploited by any really well planned offense', it was when Brian Cushing tore his ACL on a cut block last year. Cushing had a great 2011 season and started out really well in 2012 as well (very good numbers in run and pass defense), but one cut block by Matt Slauson and it all ended. He's back and supposedly healthy, and if so the Texans might just become more than just JJ Watt on defense.
94.) Champ Bailey (CB-DEN)
It's amazing that Champ Bailey was so good in his 12th season in the NFL (playoff game against Torrey Smith aside). He was a Top-20 corner in both success rate and yards per play allowed, and ranked #15 in stop rate against the run. For a corner to do this at 35 is close to unprecedented. The Broncos have planned wisely to potentially make up for any slip by Bailey this season, but at this point would anyone even be shocked if that slip doesn't come and he continues being great?
93.) Brandon Flowers (CB-KC)
Brandon Flowers was staggeringly good in 2012 for an outside corner by Football Outsiders' metrics (#6/#5 in success rate and yards per play allowed). Of course, this was off the heels of some less than stellar seasons, so 2012 either was the start of a turnaround or a fluke season to intrigue those who still think he can be something special.
92.) Chad Greenway (OLB-MIN)
This is a legacy pick for someone who could well drop off the list by 2014. He is getting older and is now slightly injury prone. Greenway's best trait used to be his incredible versatility, and while the Vikings still use him as a Jack of All Trades, he doesn't do any of those particular trades as well as he used to. He still had a tidy 25 defeats (tied for 12th in the NFL), but he was in the mid-30s two seasons ago.
91.) Tim Jennings (CB-CHI)
For years, Tim Jennings was one of the Colts that Colts fans loved to hate on. He was terrible, he couldn't tackle, he was everything wrong with the Bill Polian way of building a team. That's what he was known for in Indy. Well, I guess Polian wasn't too wrong. Jennings has been damn good since coming to Chicago, and he had his best season yet in 2012. The 9 interceptions probably isn't repeatable, but his 21 passes defended is. He gets targeted a ton, but held his own with a Top-25 success rate. Since I never believed any of those three statements at the beginning, I'm happy Jennings is having himself a nice little career.
90.) LaMarr Woodley (OLB-PIT)
LaMarr Woodley had another injury plagued campaign in 2012 and for the first time there were rumblings that Woodley's injury issues may be due to lack of work and not just bad luck. He swears he is in the best shape of his life after rededicating himself, and unlike the scores of 35-year old baseball players that give that same hollow claim, Woodley is still just 29. He almost can't do any worse than 6 hurries in a half season and his run defense play didn't slip. There is reason to believe he will turn it around.
89.) Muhammad Wilkerson (DE-NYJ)
Muhammad Wilkerson was the Jets 1st round pick in 2011, and he had a great second season, being one of the most disruptive 3-4 DEs in the NFL. Actually, if you take away the Tyranasaur named JJ Watt, he was probably the best. His 19 hurries are in the neighborhood of Watt, and his run defense metrics were Top-10 level. The Jets have waited for a premier front seven player for their 3-4 and they finally found one in Wilkerson... just in time for Rex Ryan to probably get fired after this season.
88.) Andrew Luck (QB-IND)
If Andrew Luck once again is statistically below Wilson and Griffin in efficiency in 2013, then maybe I'll move him below those other two, but Luck didn't have any of the help that Wilson (defense, running game) and Griffing (running game), and won the most games (tied with Wilson), with by far the most responsibility. He threw it a ridiculous amounts of time, and when you factor just how much he threw it, his 18 interceptions don't look too bad. With hopefully better o-line play in 2013, we might see his numbers match just how good he is.
87.) Michael Roos (T-TEN)
Michael Roos is nearing the end of his career, but he still has what made him great in the past: great technique and great feet. His not the physical giant that Walter Jones or Jonathan Ogden was, or even what Joe Staley or Joe Thomas is, but Michael Roos has been able to ably defend Vince Young and then Jake Locker's blindside, and those are two QBs that aren't really known for their quick release.
86.) Vincent Jackson (WR-TB)
Vincent Jackson didn't make Josh Freeman into a good QB (not many are that good to accomplish that feat), but Josh Freeman didn't make Vincent Jackson into a bad WR. Jackson still was able to get open deep more than anyone with his average speed should. His 19.2 yards per reception was higher than any year when he was with Philip Rivers. He reduced his drops and had his best YAC season yet. Vincent Jackson was the rare great major WR Free Agent signing. Too bad for that whole Josh Freeman part.
85.) Daryl Washington (OLB-ARZ)
Daryl Washington followed up his breakout 2011 season with an even better 2012 season, as he led the Cardinals with nine sacks. He only had 8 additional hurries, so that sack number is probably higher than we should expect going forward, and it would be nice if he was better in his run defense responsibilities, but that wasn't his role in Ray Horton's defense. No, his role was to rush the passer from the unconventional spot a 3-4 ILB, and he did it as well as any other at that position in a while. His overall numbers were about as good in 2011, so this isn't a fluke year.
84.) Mike Iupati (G-SF)
Mike Iupati made his first all-pro team, but he was actually better in most ways in 2011. His play dipped when Kaepernick took over, especially in the run game. He was still great in pass protection, giving up just 1.5 sacks, but he also had an increase in penalties. Iupati is still a key cog in a totally loaded line (there are a few 49ers lineman to come), and being just 26, he still has time to get better.
83.) Jerod Mayo (ILB-NE)
Jerod Mayo, by Football Outsider's numbers, were quite middling in 2012, but he had a really nice 2010-2011 by Football Outsiders. Mayo also did more as a pass rusher in 2012 than he did previously. He's in that Bobby Wagner stage where he just made a bunch of plays, and was an incredibly sure tackler, and even though very few of the plays he made were for few yards, the fact that he made so many is still truly valuable.
82.) Hakeem Nicks (WR-NYG)
Hakeem Nicks struggled with injuries again and it is getting close to the point where we have to wonder if he's just injury prone at this point. For Eli Manning and the Giants offense, I hope that isn't true. He missed just three games in 2012, but was noticeably less than 100% for basically the entire season. He didn't have the explosiveness in 2012 than he had in spades in 2010-2011. If he's healthy, he can make Eli Manning a better player, he can make Victor Cruz a better player, and he can help the Giants avoid another 2nd half slump. They need Nicks healthy.
81.) Jarius Byrd (S-BUF)
Jarius Byrd is the first player who's Football Outsiders' charting numbers are totally colder on him than my perception of Byrd. The only huge number Byrd put up is his 20 defeats, which are really high for a true Free Safety. Byrd has basically nothing around him of true value in the Bills back-seven (a term I like to think I coined for the linebackers and secondary), so he could easily be avoided or tasked with too much in coverage, which seems the case at times. Still, he's reaching the potential he flashed with a nine-pick rookie season in 2009.
80.) Julius Peppers (DE-CHI)
The Bears had the best defense in the NFL last season. For much of the year, it was playing at a historically good level, the levels once reached by the 2008 Steelers and 2002 Bucs. Peppers was a big part of that incredible early season performance by the defense. His sacks and hurries dropped off as the season wore on, but the same is true of every part of the Bears defense. Still, solid play against the run with 11.5 sacks and 14.5 hurries all the while being double teamed whenever possible is still really good.
79.) Percy Harvin (WR-SEA)
Percy Harvin's nine-game season in 2012 was good enough that if you extrapolate that season over 16 games, he would have been among the Top-5 in DYAR. His 73% catch rate is damn good, considering Ponders' was just 62.2% overall. He was used more efficiently this season with mostly short routes, which is exactly what the Seahawks need and what they'll do with him. Health is obviously the only question mark, and with reports of a possible strained hip, it hasn't started well, but there is a reason why Percy Harvin was talked about as an MVP candidate when the Vikings started 5-2.
78.) Lardarius Webb (CB-BAL)
Until his injury, Lardarius Webb was having a phenomenal season, with close to league leading success rates and yards allowed, with close to league leading stats in run defense as well. He was able to play as a top slot nickel and play well outside. He was the future star of the Ravens defense, and then that ACL tore. If he returns to pre-injury level, he's going way up this list, but it is hard to see someone return that quickly, that well from an ACL injury.
77.) Wes Welker (WR-DEN)
In a way, the people who think Welker was a product of New England as well as the people who think he won't miss a beat in Denver will both be right. Because of Decker and Thomas, he won't catch as many passes, but then again, the last two times Manning has had a viable slot receiver to play with (Brandon Stokley in 2012 and Austin Collie in 2010) had the two highest catch rates in the past five years and had insanely efficient seasons. That is what I would expect from Welker, to be used more downfield than he ever was in New England.
76.) Anthony Spencer (OLB-DAL)
Anthony Spencer had just one half sack less than DeMarcus Ware in 2012, and had a higher stop rate against the run by Football Outsiders, and even was quite successful dropping back in coverage. So, why is he ranked (spoiler) about 60ish spots lower than Ware? Because Ware had 22 hurries and Spencer had 12, and because Spencer doesn't command the attention that Ware does. Still, Spencer had a fantastic year and his trajectory is trending up while Ware's may be beginning to trend down.
75.) Jonathan Joseph (CB-HOU)
Jonathan Joseph struggled with injuries for much of 2012 which accounted for the notable slip in his play. He was never fully healthy even when he came back, and his numbers struggled for it, but one average season isn't enough to counteract his great 2011 season or his solid play before that in Cincinnati. He still transformed that Texans defense, and did it even before JJ Watt became a living Kaiju.
74.) Nate Solder (T-NE)
Solder, like most Patriots' first-round picks, has been extolled as the next line of Belichick genius since his being drafted, but unlike Brandon Meriweather or Patrick Chung, I don't think the similar routine of everyone realizing they aren't all that good will happen with Solder. His 20 hurries allowed are a problem, but his lack of actual sacks allowed and his dominant run blocking as a Left Tackle has made him worth the hype.
73.) Patrick Peterson (CB-ARZ)
When Patrick Peterson was drafted, he was seen as a future star with a slight emphasis on the future, that he was still a little raw. Well, the future only took one year to come. He was OK as a rookie (great in Special Teams), and he just improved to being great as a sophomore. Oddly, he was bad in special teams, but his real value is his play as a corner. He was #11 in success rate despite getting targeted all the time. He showed great ball skills, nabbing seven picks. Peterson is a star in the making.
72.) Roddy White (WR-ATL)
Roddy White went from an only above average 2011 season, where the effects of being force-fed the ball from Matt Ryan finally started to take its toll, to being an efficient machine in 2012 as Ryan finally realized that the way to maximize Roddy White is not to throw it to him 10 times a game. His targets plummeted from 180 in 2010-11 to 143, but his catch rate was a career high, as was his yards per catch. White will continue to benefit from the emergence of Julio Jones, and since he was never all that fast, his advancing age shouldn't be too hard to overcome.
71.) Ike Taylor (CB-PIT)
Ike Taylor is 33, which makes sense since he was there in the days of Kendrell Bell. He's seen so many Steelers defenders come and go and remains a really good player. He has been asked to play more man in recent years, which he's taken to quite well. His pass defense numbers were both in the Top-20, and they were outright dominant in the second half of his abbreviated season. He has always been a great tackler, which shows in him allowing 3.9 yards per rush in his direction. The late season injury is a concern going forward, but that was the first injury of note for Taylor.
70.) Anthony Davis (T-SF)
Anthony Davis isn't as good in pass protection as his reputation makes people think, but he's been absolutely dominant in run blocking for two years now. He had just two blown blocks on run plays according to Football Outsiders, which is really insane. It is his 16.5 blown blocks on passing plays that is more worrisome. Still, out or a right tackle, you would take sometimes careless pass protection for dominant run blocking.
69.) Jason Witten (TE-DAL)
The good news: Jason Witten set the NFL record for catches in a season by a Tight End with 110, and did it with a tidy little 74% catch rate, so he wasn't getting Roddy White targets. The bad news: he caught those 110 passes for just 1,039 yards, giving him an ugly (even for a Tight End) 9.4 yards per catch, and his blocking is slowly getting worse. Still, he's about as good as any Cowboys fan, as well as Tony Romo, could have hoped for at 32.
68.) Lance Briggs (OLB-CHI)
When does Lance Briggs start to get some sort of love as a Hall of Fame candidate? He had another stellar season, with 7.5 hurries (his most in years), great pass coverage numbers, including 8 passes deflected, and 25 defeats. Briggs is seemingly ageless, doing this all at 32, while basically not missing a snap. He's not the candidate Urlacher is, but I think Briggs is definitely a strong, strong candidate in his own right. It is just hard to see them putting two LBs from the same team in when neither won a Super Bowl.
67.) Antoine Winfield (CB-SEA)
Antoine Winfield had one of those seasons that shouldn't be possible for a 36 year old corner that has played his career in such a physical manner. He was #8 in yards per pass allowed, and ranked in the Top-10 in both run defense stats for corners. He wasn't close to this good in 2010-11, which is why he's down here in the 60's. Still, he's the best #3 corner in the NFL, which is how he'll play in Seattle. Of course age is a concern, but when you can be the most active corner in the NFL at 35, age might not really be a question.
66.) Lawrence Timmons (ILB-PIT)
Timmons took a step forward when LaMarr Woodley took a step back (and James Harrison took three steps off the team) with his best season to date. LeBeau used him as a blitzer more in 2012 than ever, and he responded with 6 sacks and 19.5 hurries, the most for any inside linebacker. His run and pass defense numbers are all good. There's no real weakness in his game, and he has a dynamic ability as a blitzer that the James Farriors and Larry Foote's never really had. That's a dangerous mix for opposing offenses, especially if Woodley finds his game again.
65.) Sebastian Vollmer (T-NE)
Sebastian Vollmer's back may be a ticking time bomb, as that is the only explanation of why no one even attempted to sign him when he was a UFA this past offseason. Still, as of now he is healthy and is arguably the best RT in the NFL. He actually had a slightly down 2012 season, but was outright dominant in 2011 which he was undoubtedly the best right tackle in the NFL. In Brady's advancing years he needs great protection more and more and Vollmer has consistently given it to him.
64.) Max Unger (C-SEA)
Unger quietly has played four seasons in the NFL, dating back to the gone-but-often-forgotten Jim Mora year in 2009, but like so many other Seahawks, his game has exploded in the Pete Carroll era. He allowed 0.5 sacks in 2012, while being penalized just twice all year long. Supposedly he was invaluable at making line calls and working with Russell Wilson, and as we've seen so many times, the Center-QB relationship can be as important as any on a team.
63.) Dashon Goldson (S-TB)
Dashon Goldson was probably overranked on my list last year (this is why I don't write where the player was ranked a year ago), but he went out and had a better season in 2012 than he did in 2011. He ranked #3 in both of Football Outsiders' pass coverage metrics. He was probably the best free safety in the NFL last season. He takes his talents to Tampa, where they'll need him and Darrelle Revis to shore up one of the worst pass defenses I've ever seen. It will take all of Goldson's considerable skill to stop Julio Jones from going OFF against the Bucs.
62.) Arian Foster (RB-HOU)
Arian Foster seemed a bit overrused at times in 2012, but still managed to have a good year even with the up-and-down play of the Texans offensive line and teams gameplanning more and more to stopping Foster and not the Schaub passing game. He was used less in the passing game, but I think that could change with better O-Line play allowing Foster to go out to run routes. With a hopefully healthy Ben Tate being in the backfield, Foster should be used less in 2013, which could make him as good as he was in 2011-12.
61.) Eli Manning (QB-NYG)
Obviously, he didn't keep his level from his breakout 2012 season. Some of this was the nagging injury to Hakeem Nicks and the continuing decline of the Giants O-Line, and some of it was just bad luck. It is unlikely that Manning goes three straight games without a passing TD again like he did last year, just as it is more likely Hakeem Nicks stays healthy in 2013 than not. Eli Manning will probably never put up Aaron Rodgers type numbers, but he should put up Matthew Stafford numbers while being more efficient and less voluminous.
60.) Reggie Wayne (WR-IND)
Reggie Wayne didn't have great efficiency numbers, but a lot of that is Andrew Luck trying to force him balls when he wasn't really open. He had a ridiculous 196 targets last year. That number will probably go down, but his overall numbers might not drop as much as a 35 year old WRs' numbers would. He is closing in on getting HOF numbers, something that I never imagined happening when Peyton Manning first had his injury back in 2011. Of course, I never expected him to be this good this late in his career.
59.) Luke Kuechly (ILB-CAR)
Luke Kuechly was an absolute monster in 2012, probably the best rookie season by a linebacker since Patrick Willis in 2007. Luke Kuechly had a ridiculous 96 stops, and 27 defeats, made more impressive that just one of those was a sack. He just made a slew of really great tackles. His pass coverage numbers are good also, ranking #14 in success rate. Rookie LBs that have dominant seasons generally are future stars, and Luke Kuechly definitely seems to be in that mix. For once, the 'most NFL-ready player' in a draft was absolutely NFL-ready.
58.) Joe Staley (T-SF)
Joe Staley was arguably the best run-blocking left tackle in the NFL, and when you consider that the QBs he blocked for aren't exactly the best at avoiding sacks (Kaepernick is better than Smith, but it isn't like he's a Manning). His six penalties as a left tackle is another number that must be delighting the face of Jim Harbaugh. He built off a breakout 2011 season with another great All-Pro season.
57.) Clay Matthews III (OLB-GB)
Clay Matthews, welcome back to being awesome. After a so-so 2011 (following two great seasons to start his career), Clay Matthews was a pass rushing monster once again. 13 sacks, 20 hurries, with good play against the run, add that all up to his past successes, and the fact that he is constantly double teamed given the other OLBs are Erik Walden-types, and you get a great player. Matthews dropped into coverage less than ever, but he's even shown that skill in the past.
56.) Ed Reed (S-HOU)
Is this ranking partially based on what Reed has done for most of his career and not his decidedly slightly above average play last year? Yes, and I'm OK with that. Ed Reed real value was in how he made every QB the Ravens faced in the playoffs avoid throwing deep. Kaepernick didn't, and Reed promptly picked him off. At his age, he isn't much of an upgrade over Glover Quin in Houston, but his overall leadership should still be valuable for the Texans.
55.) Asante Samuel (CB-ATL)
Asante Samuel, by Football Outsiders, was about 95% as good as Darrelle Revis from 2008-2011, but his play finally slipped a bit in 2012. He is still decidedly average in run support, but that makes him a bit underrated in that area since most people believe he is allergic to tackling. Samuel still ranked Top-10 in success rate, but he gave up more yards per attempt this season than most. Samuel needs to sustain his level of play from 2012 at the least since the team lost most of their other established corners.
54.) Eric Decker (WR-DEN)
Eric Decker was one of the most efficient receivers in the NFL in 2012, with his 392 DYAR tied for 3rd in the NFL, behind just Dez Bryant and the two Johnsons. His 69% catch rate on 123 targets is really impressive for a guy who doesn't have the best of hands (7 drops). His numbers will probably suffer more than Demaryius Thomas with the arrival of Welker, but Manning in the past has shown the ability to get three different WRs looks at once, and Decker can play the Reggie Wayne of 2004 role for the 2013 Broncos about as well as Reggie could.
53.) Jimmy Graham (TE-NO)
Jimmy Graham couldn't come close to matching his ridiculous 2011 season, as his catches dropped by 14, his yards by 328, his yards per catch by 1.6, and his DVOA and DYAR dropped as well. Two things keep his ranking this high. First, his 2011 season counts. I can't just imagine that away because he had merely a good season and not an all-time season. Reportedly, he was slightly injured last year, but most people that have a drop in production like to cite injuries to explain them. He is still a matchup nightmare, and with Sean Payton back, he might get more looks.
52.) Joe Flacco (QB-BAL)
I gave Eli Manning a really nice bump after his stellar, Super Bowl winning 2011 campaign, and Flacco gets a more moderate bump for his. The main reason is that while Flacco's playoff performance this year was great, his regular season most certainly wasn't. Flacco, in my opinion, just needs to become the focal point of that offense. There is a reason he hasn't thrown for 4,000 yards yet, but most of the reasons aren't his talent. It is there. The playoff Joe Flacco is real, but whether he can leverage the playoff success into a dominant season remains to be seen.
51.) Justin Tuck (DE-NYG)
Justin Tuck definitely took a step down from a dominant 2011 season, but he was still a top interior pass rushing force. He had 10.5 hurries, mostly from the interior of the line. Tuck's run numbers were down, but his impact was more felt with all the other Giants lineman having really good seasons against the run. At 30, he could be nearing the end of his peak, but what a peak it was. And to think people were confused why the Giants signed him for six years right before Super Bowl XLII.
