20.) Aldon Smith (OLB-SF)
Aldon Smith's 19.5 sacks and 27 hurries are just incredible numbers. He was almost as good a year ago (more hurries, fewer sacks). He has more sacks through two seasons than anyone ever (it helped that he played more games than Reggie White, but still). However, there is one dark mark on Aldon Smith's career so far: he had no sacks when Justin Smith was hurt late in the year. He barely had hurries. Apparently he was injured as well, but he was Superman without his cape with Smith missing. Everybody needs something to work on.
19.) Richard Sherman (CB-SEA)
Sherman backed up a great 2011 season with an equally good 2012 season. Sherman took more chances, which accounts for his 22 passes defended and 8 interceptions, but his raised yards allowed per pass (5.4 in 2011 and 7.1 this past year, rank went from #7 to #30). Sherman cut down on his penalties and played better against the run as well. Richard Sherman per play may not have been quite as good as his great 2011 season (although he gets credit for matching that level), but he made more impact plays. If he can alternate back and forth than he can get to that Revis level.
18.) Nick Mangold (C-NYJ)
Ho hum, another great year from Mangold. He's not at the level he was back in 2010 (when I had him ranked 7th the following offseason), but that is mainly age and also that Sanchez is worse and more skittish now than then. Mangold was penalized just twice, and was noted for just 1.5 blown blocks on run plays. Mangold goes against some really good defensive tackles (Wilfork, Kyle Williams in the AFC East alone), and owns all of them. It is sad that this monster has been playing in New York and is still somehow underrated.
17.) Carl Nicks (G-TB)
Carl Nicks season was cut short after seven games with a mysterious toe injury. It may have not been mysterious, but it seems odd to miss nine games because of a toe. Anyway, he was still really good in his first year in Tampa Bay, and New Orleans really seemed to miss him as well. Nicks was marked for one penalty and just four blown blocks on passes, which is better than it looks since Josh Freeman was awfully easy to get pressure on.
16.) Haloti Ngata (DE-BAL)
Ngata continued his calm mastery of the position of the new age Richard Seymour. He's not allowed the free range of JJ Watt, and his job is to push through double teams, and he still does that about as good as anyone in the game. His 9 QB hits and 13 hurries are better than what he had a year ago, and his sacks stayed consistent. You want the best example of how much Haloti Ngata means to that team, just watch how badly the Ravens defense played after Ngata's injury in the Super Bowl. The true value of a player is what happens when he is gone.
15.) Drew Brees (QB-NO)
Drew Brees went from having one of the greatest seasons by a QB ever to having one of the strangest. He broke Marino's passing yardage record again, but this time with no fanfare. The 19 interceptions might have something to do with that. The strangest part of Brees' season was his completion percentage dropping to 63.0% coming off of a season with a 71.2%. Brees should get better with the return of Payton, but he has always been a bit of a risk taker (22 INTs in 2010 as well). Can he return to being a Top-10 player? Easily, but I don't think Brees + Payton necessarily = Top-10.
14.) Darrelle Revis (CB-TB)
Darrelle Revis, before his ACL injury against San Francisco, was having another stupid good year, with a 74% success rate and 3.4 yards allowed. That latter number would have been by far #1 in the NFL for corners. Yeah, he's still that good. The one question is if he can return from injury at near that level. He will never approach 2009 level because no one ever will for a long, long time, but Revis' consistent greatness throughout his six year career is just staggering. He is, and should be, a Hall of Famer.
13.) Rob Gronkowski (TE-NE)
Rob Gronkowski, much like his QB, will probably never replicate his amazing 2011 season. Part of that is because of league offensive levels in that season, but for Gronkowski, the other is that he is hard to count on to play 16 games. His continuous arm injuries late in 2012 were worrisome, but the reoccurrence of his back injury that ended in another surgery might be the bigger issue. Once you get past all that, you are left with a player who has a chance to be the best TE of all time having another stellar season when healthy. All that matters is how many games he will be healthy for.
12.) Geno Atkins (DT-CIN)
Geno Atkins had the best season for a 4-3 DT since probably Warren Sapp in 2002. I could be forgetting someone, but not many 4-3 DTs have ever had 13 sacks, not to mention 30(!) more hurries, in a season before. He was also very good against the run, ranking #5 in stop rate. He was as active as any 4-3 DT that I have seen. The best part is this was just his 3rd season, and at just 25 he can keep this level for quite a while. There were a lot of incredible single seasons last year, and Atkins is really the first in the Dominant 12 that are to come.
11.) Andre Johnson (WR-HOU)
Andre Johnson was the best receiver in the NFL in 2008-09, and then was very good but injured in 2010-11. Well, he was healthy for the first time since '09, and while he wans't the best receiver, he had an incredible season. Having 1,598 yards on 112 catches at 31 is ridiculous. The fact that it wasn't the best season of his career (that was 2008 - 115 catches for 1,575 yards) says even more about what an incredible player Johnson has been. By DYAR, his season was 95% as good as Calvin Johnson's. By the way, note to Matt Schaub: please start throwing to Johnson in the red zone. His low TD totals are the only thing holding him back from surefire HOF status.
10.) Von Miller (OLB-DEN)
Von Miller potential suspension has kind of left the public radar, and it wasn't for PED abuse, so the numbers are real. Of course, they look propped up. He was the best pass rusher outside of the Gyarados named Watt, with 18.5 sacks and a ridiculous 41 hurries. He was #2 in the NFL with 39 defeats, which is a Top-20 mark going back to 1991. Of course, he was also the best run stopping linebacker in the NFL, with the #1 mark in yards allowed per run for them at 0.4 yards. Playing alongside an offense that gets leads helps his cause, but he would be a star on the Jaguars as well. He is just too good, too freaking good.
9.) Joe Thomas (T-CLE)
Joe Thomas overall stats may look average, with his three sacks allowed and fourteen blown blocks (8 on passes, 6 on runs), but as Football Outsiders notes, he had only one blown block per 73.6 snaps, which led all Left Tackles, and he was on a line that wasn't that great around him in a defensive heavy division (he had to block Paul Kruger, James Harrison and Michael Johnson two times each). Because he was a Top-5 pick, Thomas gets the love that most left tackles on perennially bad teams don't get, but Thomas does deserve it.
8.) Tom Brady (QB-NE)
There are positives and negatives to take from Brady's 2012 season. The positive is that he was still an advanced stats' dream QB, leading the NFL in DVOA and DYAR for QBs. The bad news is that he had accuracy issues for the first time in a while, as his 63.0% completion percentage was his lowest since 2006. Many people are bringing up that 2006 season as a comp for this year with all the new receivers Brady has to break in, but Brady is so much better than he was in 2006 that there is no comp to what Brady will be this season. No one knows, but he will come as close to making it work as all but three or four QBs.
7.) DeMarcus Ware (OLB-DAL)
This was Ware's worst season since either 2009 or 2006. Of course, that 'worst season' included 11.5 sacks and 22 hurries, with a #7 ranking in both stop rate and yards allowed per run. Basically, the worst Ware can play in his peak is as good as most other pro-bowlers. Ware is a special, special player, and although his peak might be over at 31, he could still fly up that all-time sack leaderboard. The one question for Ware is how he will transition to playing a 4-3 DE, but he has good enough size to play that well, and with a Hall of Fame talent like Ware it is easy to see him doing anything well.
6.) Patrick Willis (ILB-SF)
Another high-volume season with stellar pass coverage and limited but very effective pass rushing performance for Patrick Willis. He is in that stage where he could probably play a lot worse and still get First Team All-Pro on reputation alone, but Willis keeps earning it. My favorite Willis memories are when he perfectly covers guys from Jordy Nelson to Aaron Hernandez to Anquan Boldin capably as a ILB. I have never seen a ILB that can be so agile in pass coverage. Just a wonder to watch.
5.) Calvin Johnson (WR-DET)
I remarked on Andre's low TD totals, but I was shocked to find out that Calvin Johnson had just 5 TDs last year. The TD number is the main reason that Football Outsiders liked his 2011 season more than his 2012 one (he had 16 that year). But the fact that his 2011 season was good enough to be about as good as his 2012 season is part of the reason why Calvin Johnson is so amazing. It isn't like he really raised his game in 2012 to get the numbers he got, it is just that he was thrown to 43 more times. Since the Lions like to throw it ~700 times a year, Calvin could end up threatening that Jerry Rice career yards record. Although, at 28, he's only 35% of the way there.
4.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
I'll be honest, when Manning threw back-to-back-to-back interceptions against Atlanta I was worried that the Peyton I knew would ever be back. It took a while for him to get going, but by the end of the year he was the best QB in the NFL for 2012. His outlook is even more positive, as he's even healthier and stronger now than he was in August 2012, and the addition of Welker gives him the best receiving corp he has had since 2004, when he had what I still consider the best season by a QB ever. It is still amazing to think that he was a Free Agent. I once wrote that if LeBron thought he was important, he should look at the ratings if Peyton Manning was ever a Free Agent and held a 'The Decision'. Of course, Manning is too classy to have a televised announcement with ESPN, but like LeBron, he had a great fist year in his new digs. Can he follow the LeBron model and win a title in year 2?
3.) Adrian Peterson (RB-MIN)
One of the goals of this list is to try to take 'value' out of this. If I didn't, I would have six or so QBs in the Top-20. I still think Peyton Manning was the Most Valuable Player, since QBs are inherently more valuable than RBs. I do, however, think Adrian Peterson was a better player in 2012. What he did was staggering, with a 6.0 yards per carry on 348 carries, which is just stupid. He had 1,598 yards on 235 carries with 10 TDs in his last ten games, which is even more stupid - that's a 376/2557/16 line for a whole season. Why I don't think he's as valuable as Manning is that his team still just went 6-4 in those 10 games, but he was still the best offensive player in the NFL last season, and the only modern RB who is a surefire Hall of Famer.
2.) JJ Watt (DE-HOU)
'Not a human being'...'Kaiju'...'Tyranosaur'...'living Kaiju'...Reggie White'...'Gyarados'. These are the ways I've referred to Watt so far. In honesty, none of them do it justice. JJ Watt wasn't only the leader in sacks leaguewide playing as a 3-4 DE. He wasn't only the guy who had the best season at batting down balls ever, with 18 of them (more than many have in 5 years). It wasn't just that he was unequivocally the best run stuffing d-lineman in the NFL, rating #1 in both stop rate (98%, which is basically absurd) and in yards allowed (-0.2 yards, which is more absurd as it means his average run tackle was BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE). No, he was the guy who did all this despite being double teams constantly and despite everyone in the world knowing all of this. The only reason he isn't #1 is because he's only played two seasons and although he was very good for a rookie, he wasn't great as a rookie. Still, we may never see another defensive season like that. Our only hope to see one is for an actual Kaiju to play in the NFL.
1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB-GB)
Considering his Super Bowl run at the end of 2010, Aaron Rodgers has been the best QB in the NFL over the past three seasons. Historically, QBs don't have really long runs as the best in the NFL (although they can be a Top-2/3/4/5 for a long time, like Peyton). Aaron Rodgers will at some point start throwing interceptions at a human rate and have seasons with QB ratings under 100 (he's only done that in his rookie season). Soon, the hits he takes will take their tole. Of course, maybe he is a magician, and considering the way he can throw on the run to his right or left at ease that could be true. Aaron Rodgers will have to play that way this year with Jennings gone and his O-Line still something of a mess, but he gives the Packers a chance to win any game and every game. There still is no better QB in the NFL, and since he was about 90% as good as he was when he put together one of the five best QB seasons ever in 2011, he retains his perch on this list. JJ Watt, though, is coming to get him, figuratively and literally.
Aldon Smith's 19.5 sacks and 27 hurries are just incredible numbers. He was almost as good a year ago (more hurries, fewer sacks). He has more sacks through two seasons than anyone ever (it helped that he played more games than Reggie White, but still). However, there is one dark mark on Aldon Smith's career so far: he had no sacks when Justin Smith was hurt late in the year. He barely had hurries. Apparently he was injured as well, but he was Superman without his cape with Smith missing. Everybody needs something to work on.
19.) Richard Sherman (CB-SEA)
Sherman backed up a great 2011 season with an equally good 2012 season. Sherman took more chances, which accounts for his 22 passes defended and 8 interceptions, but his raised yards allowed per pass (5.4 in 2011 and 7.1 this past year, rank went from #7 to #30). Sherman cut down on his penalties and played better against the run as well. Richard Sherman per play may not have been quite as good as his great 2011 season (although he gets credit for matching that level), but he made more impact plays. If he can alternate back and forth than he can get to that Revis level.
18.) Nick Mangold (C-NYJ)
Ho hum, another great year from Mangold. He's not at the level he was back in 2010 (when I had him ranked 7th the following offseason), but that is mainly age and also that Sanchez is worse and more skittish now than then. Mangold was penalized just twice, and was noted for just 1.5 blown blocks on run plays. Mangold goes against some really good defensive tackles (Wilfork, Kyle Williams in the AFC East alone), and owns all of them. It is sad that this monster has been playing in New York and is still somehow underrated.
17.) Carl Nicks (G-TB)
Carl Nicks season was cut short after seven games with a mysterious toe injury. It may have not been mysterious, but it seems odd to miss nine games because of a toe. Anyway, he was still really good in his first year in Tampa Bay, and New Orleans really seemed to miss him as well. Nicks was marked for one penalty and just four blown blocks on passes, which is better than it looks since Josh Freeman was awfully easy to get pressure on.
16.) Haloti Ngata (DE-BAL)
Ngata continued his calm mastery of the position of the new age Richard Seymour. He's not allowed the free range of JJ Watt, and his job is to push through double teams, and he still does that about as good as anyone in the game. His 9 QB hits and 13 hurries are better than what he had a year ago, and his sacks stayed consistent. You want the best example of how much Haloti Ngata means to that team, just watch how badly the Ravens defense played after Ngata's injury in the Super Bowl. The true value of a player is what happens when he is gone.
15.) Drew Brees (QB-NO)
Drew Brees went from having one of the greatest seasons by a QB ever to having one of the strangest. He broke Marino's passing yardage record again, but this time with no fanfare. The 19 interceptions might have something to do with that. The strangest part of Brees' season was his completion percentage dropping to 63.0% coming off of a season with a 71.2%. Brees should get better with the return of Payton, but he has always been a bit of a risk taker (22 INTs in 2010 as well). Can he return to being a Top-10 player? Easily, but I don't think Brees + Payton necessarily = Top-10.
14.) Darrelle Revis (CB-TB)
Darrelle Revis, before his ACL injury against San Francisco, was having another stupid good year, with a 74% success rate and 3.4 yards allowed. That latter number would have been by far #1 in the NFL for corners. Yeah, he's still that good. The one question is if he can return from injury at near that level. He will never approach 2009 level because no one ever will for a long, long time, but Revis' consistent greatness throughout his six year career is just staggering. He is, and should be, a Hall of Famer.
13.) Rob Gronkowski (TE-NE)
Rob Gronkowski, much like his QB, will probably never replicate his amazing 2011 season. Part of that is because of league offensive levels in that season, but for Gronkowski, the other is that he is hard to count on to play 16 games. His continuous arm injuries late in 2012 were worrisome, but the reoccurrence of his back injury that ended in another surgery might be the bigger issue. Once you get past all that, you are left with a player who has a chance to be the best TE of all time having another stellar season when healthy. All that matters is how many games he will be healthy for.
12.) Geno Atkins (DT-CIN)
Geno Atkins had the best season for a 4-3 DT since probably Warren Sapp in 2002. I could be forgetting someone, but not many 4-3 DTs have ever had 13 sacks, not to mention 30(!) more hurries, in a season before. He was also very good against the run, ranking #5 in stop rate. He was as active as any 4-3 DT that I have seen. The best part is this was just his 3rd season, and at just 25 he can keep this level for quite a while. There were a lot of incredible single seasons last year, and Atkins is really the first in the Dominant 12 that are to come.
11.) Andre Johnson (WR-HOU)
Andre Johnson was the best receiver in the NFL in 2008-09, and then was very good but injured in 2010-11. Well, he was healthy for the first time since '09, and while he wans't the best receiver, he had an incredible season. Having 1,598 yards on 112 catches at 31 is ridiculous. The fact that it wasn't the best season of his career (that was 2008 - 115 catches for 1,575 yards) says even more about what an incredible player Johnson has been. By DYAR, his season was 95% as good as Calvin Johnson's. By the way, note to Matt Schaub: please start throwing to Johnson in the red zone. His low TD totals are the only thing holding him back from surefire HOF status.
10.) Von Miller (OLB-DEN)
Von Miller potential suspension has kind of left the public radar, and it wasn't for PED abuse, so the numbers are real. Of course, they look propped up. He was the best pass rusher outside of the Gyarados named Watt, with 18.5 sacks and a ridiculous 41 hurries. He was #2 in the NFL with 39 defeats, which is a Top-20 mark going back to 1991. Of course, he was also the best run stopping linebacker in the NFL, with the #1 mark in yards allowed per run for them at 0.4 yards. Playing alongside an offense that gets leads helps his cause, but he would be a star on the Jaguars as well. He is just too good, too freaking good.
9.) Joe Thomas (T-CLE)
Joe Thomas overall stats may look average, with his three sacks allowed and fourteen blown blocks (8 on passes, 6 on runs), but as Football Outsiders notes, he had only one blown block per 73.6 snaps, which led all Left Tackles, and he was on a line that wasn't that great around him in a defensive heavy division (he had to block Paul Kruger, James Harrison and Michael Johnson two times each). Because he was a Top-5 pick, Thomas gets the love that most left tackles on perennially bad teams don't get, but Thomas does deserve it.
8.) Tom Brady (QB-NE)
There are positives and negatives to take from Brady's 2012 season. The positive is that he was still an advanced stats' dream QB, leading the NFL in DVOA and DYAR for QBs. The bad news is that he had accuracy issues for the first time in a while, as his 63.0% completion percentage was his lowest since 2006. Many people are bringing up that 2006 season as a comp for this year with all the new receivers Brady has to break in, but Brady is so much better than he was in 2006 that there is no comp to what Brady will be this season. No one knows, but he will come as close to making it work as all but three or four QBs.
7.) DeMarcus Ware (OLB-DAL)
This was Ware's worst season since either 2009 or 2006. Of course, that 'worst season' included 11.5 sacks and 22 hurries, with a #7 ranking in both stop rate and yards allowed per run. Basically, the worst Ware can play in his peak is as good as most other pro-bowlers. Ware is a special, special player, and although his peak might be over at 31, he could still fly up that all-time sack leaderboard. The one question for Ware is how he will transition to playing a 4-3 DE, but he has good enough size to play that well, and with a Hall of Fame talent like Ware it is easy to see him doing anything well.
6.) Patrick Willis (ILB-SF)
Another high-volume season with stellar pass coverage and limited but very effective pass rushing performance for Patrick Willis. He is in that stage where he could probably play a lot worse and still get First Team All-Pro on reputation alone, but Willis keeps earning it. My favorite Willis memories are when he perfectly covers guys from Jordy Nelson to Aaron Hernandez to Anquan Boldin capably as a ILB. I have never seen a ILB that can be so agile in pass coverage. Just a wonder to watch.
5.) Calvin Johnson (WR-DET)
I remarked on Andre's low TD totals, but I was shocked to find out that Calvin Johnson had just 5 TDs last year. The TD number is the main reason that Football Outsiders liked his 2011 season more than his 2012 one (he had 16 that year). But the fact that his 2011 season was good enough to be about as good as his 2012 season is part of the reason why Calvin Johnson is so amazing. It isn't like he really raised his game in 2012 to get the numbers he got, it is just that he was thrown to 43 more times. Since the Lions like to throw it ~700 times a year, Calvin could end up threatening that Jerry Rice career yards record. Although, at 28, he's only 35% of the way there.
4.) Peyton Manning (QB-DEN)
I'll be honest, when Manning threw back-to-back-to-back interceptions against Atlanta I was worried that the Peyton I knew would ever be back. It took a while for him to get going, but by the end of the year he was the best QB in the NFL for 2012. His outlook is even more positive, as he's even healthier and stronger now than he was in August 2012, and the addition of Welker gives him the best receiving corp he has had since 2004, when he had what I still consider the best season by a QB ever. It is still amazing to think that he was a Free Agent. I once wrote that if LeBron thought he was important, he should look at the ratings if Peyton Manning was ever a Free Agent and held a 'The Decision'. Of course, Manning is too classy to have a televised announcement with ESPN, but like LeBron, he had a great fist year in his new digs. Can he follow the LeBron model and win a title in year 2?
3.) Adrian Peterson (RB-MIN)
One of the goals of this list is to try to take 'value' out of this. If I didn't, I would have six or so QBs in the Top-20. I still think Peyton Manning was the Most Valuable Player, since QBs are inherently more valuable than RBs. I do, however, think Adrian Peterson was a better player in 2012. What he did was staggering, with a 6.0 yards per carry on 348 carries, which is just stupid. He had 1,598 yards on 235 carries with 10 TDs in his last ten games, which is even more stupid - that's a 376/2557/16 line for a whole season. Why I don't think he's as valuable as Manning is that his team still just went 6-4 in those 10 games, but he was still the best offensive player in the NFL last season, and the only modern RB who is a surefire Hall of Famer.
2.) JJ Watt (DE-HOU)
'Not a human being'...'Kaiju'...'Tyranosaur'...'living Kaiju'...Reggie White'...'Gyarados'. These are the ways I've referred to Watt so far. In honesty, none of them do it justice. JJ Watt wasn't only the leader in sacks leaguewide playing as a 3-4 DE. He wasn't only the guy who had the best season at batting down balls ever, with 18 of them (more than many have in 5 years). It wasn't just that he was unequivocally the best run stuffing d-lineman in the NFL, rating #1 in both stop rate (98%, which is basically absurd) and in yards allowed (-0.2 yards, which is more absurd as it means his average run tackle was BEHIND THE LINE OF SCRIMMAGE). No, he was the guy who did all this despite being double teams constantly and despite everyone in the world knowing all of this. The only reason he isn't #1 is because he's only played two seasons and although he was very good for a rookie, he wasn't great as a rookie. Still, we may never see another defensive season like that. Our only hope to see one is for an actual Kaiju to play in the NFL.
1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB-GB)
Considering his Super Bowl run at the end of 2010, Aaron Rodgers has been the best QB in the NFL over the past three seasons. Historically, QBs don't have really long runs as the best in the NFL (although they can be a Top-2/3/4/5 for a long time, like Peyton). Aaron Rodgers will at some point start throwing interceptions at a human rate and have seasons with QB ratings under 100 (he's only done that in his rookie season). Soon, the hits he takes will take their tole. Of course, maybe he is a magician, and considering the way he can throw on the run to his right or left at ease that could be true. Aaron Rodgers will have to play that way this year with Jennings gone and his O-Line still something of a mess, but he gives the Packers a chance to win any game and every game. There still is no better QB in the NFL, and since he was about 90% as good as he was when he put together one of the five best QB seasons ever in 2011, he retains his perch on this list. JJ Watt, though, is coming to get him, figuratively and literally.
