It's the halfway point of the NFL Season, my favorite time of year (it's not). Now is a good time to look back at all the things I said before the season started, update some picks, pat myself on the back (there be a shit load of that), and scold myself (come on, that won't happen). Let's do an updated predicted standings for the league, and look back and review what I said would be each teams' record before the season started.
AFC
AFC East
1.) New York Jets 11-5 (3)
Preseason Prediction: 10-6; 1st AFC East (3)
I still think that this is the best team in the division, but I don't see them as that bad. I think the Jets win 11-12 games. Their defense is about where I expected: a tad below the 2009 Jets. The offense got good contributions from LT, but I don't think that Sanchez has really improved enough.
2.) New England Patriots 10-6
Preseason Prediction: 7-9; 3rd AFC East
I let my hate push them down a bit, but I still think they aren't as good as the Jets. The Patriots won games that they really did not do that much to win (Baltimore, Chargers). They looked awful in the Browns game, and now have three really tough games in four weeks. Suddenly, that thanksgiving game in Detroit doesn't seem so easy after all.
3.) Miami Dolphins 7-9
Preason Prediction: 9-7; 2nd AFC East
They might match this number, but I think they are a 7-8 win team. Chad Henne has regressed a bit. He's still young, and still has developing receivers, so I think there is room and time to grow, but Sparano's decision to go back to Pennington speaks volumes.
4.) Buffalo Bills 1-15
Preseason Prediction: 2-14; 4th AFC East
Nailed this one so far. They might not even get to two wins. The Bills have actually been better than I thought, but have not found ways to win games, which is a skill. They will easily be one of the best 0-3 win teams of all time.
AFC North
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers 13-3 (1)
Preseason Prediction: 11-5; 2nd AFC North (5)
Now we're talking. I thought they would be worse without Ben, but I really did think the Steelers would be the best defense in the NFL, which I hit. Ben Roethlisberger still seems rusty, but he has played a bunch of talented defenses so far (that ends with this upcoming game).
2.) Baltimore Ravens 11-5 (5)
Preseason Prediction: 10-6; 3rd AFC North
I said it would be sad that a 10-6 team misses the playoffs. There might be two ten win teams that miss the playoffs in the AFC, but I don't think the Ravens will be one of the teams that miss the playoffs. I thought their defense would take a step back, and it has to a bit, but their pass rush has been better this year. Haloti Ngata is a BEAST.
3.) Cincinnati Bengals 6-10
Preseason Prediction: 12-4; 1st AFC North (2)
I'm ducking from cyber-eggs right now. The Bengals defense has regressed so much. Their pass rush has been non-existent. The team actually has lost a bunch of tough games, and is really more like a .500 team, but they have been a total disaster.
4.) Cleveland Browns 5-11
Preseason Prediction: 5-11; 4th AFC North
I said that the Browns are a frisky team that is one of two years away. I'll pay myself on the back for that one. The Browns are a frisky team that is one or two years away. I could not have been more right (not entirely true).
AFC South
1.) Indianapolis Colts 13-3 (2)
Preseason Prediction: 14-2; 1st AFC South (1)
They already lost more games than I predicted, but they have been way more injured than I predicted. The Colts will be healthier come playoff time, and damn dangerous. Their schedule is a lot easier than it looked as the season started with the Bengals being weaker and the Cowboys being ass.
2.) Houston Texans 10-6 (6)
Preseason Prediction: 11-5; 2nd AFC South (6)
The Texans will probably not win eleven games, and might not even make the playoffs, but they are a better team than they were a year ago. Matt Schaub hasn't had the same year, but to me the defense has been better and the running game has come out of nowhere.
3.) Tennessee Titans 10-6
Preseason Prediction: 9-7; 3rd AFC South
I undersold the Titans, and my Titan fan friend repeatedly called me out on it before the season started. He was right. They are a perfect regular season team. I think if they make the playoffs that they go one and done (unless that first game is in New England or KC), but they are a better team than I ever thought.
4.) Jacksonville Jaguars 6-10
Preseason Prediction: 4-12; 4th AFC South
I have no idea how they have already won four games, but they have. They inexplicably straddle the .500 mark for years, never falling too far down, which is really bad. It is better to have a crap team and get a top pick QB than wallow in mediocrity with Garrard and Del Rio.
AFC West
1.) Oakland Raiders 9-7 (4)
Preseason Prediction: 9-7; 1st AFC South (4)
Good call. Not sure if they win that division, but 9-7 is certainly attainable. It really helps that they are 3-0 in the division, and have two out of conference losses. They have tiebreak advantages up the wazoo.
2.) San Diego Chargers 9-7
Preseason Prediction: 8-8; 2nd AFC South
The defenses amazing step up has proppelled this team to a should be 6-2 record, but their disastrous special teams may have them wind up around this spot anyway. Philip Rivers is amazing (more on him to come on a later column).
3.) Kansas City Chiefs 8-8
Preseason Prediction: 4-12; 3rd AFC South
I thought it would be due to the coordinators that they sneak out four games. The coordinators might push them through to the playoffs. They still have only one win of note, over the Chargers on Monday Night, but their ability to win all the games they should win is absolutely 2008-Dolphin-esque.
4.) Denver Broncos 4-12
Preseason Prediction: 3-13; 4th AFC South
They'll be lucky to match my expectations. The Broncos are every bit as bad on defense as I thought they would be. McDaniels has to be held accountable for letting go of Mike Nolan for no good reason.
NFC
NFC East
1.) New York Giants 13-3 (1)
Preseason Prediction: 13-3; 1st NFC East (1)
Yes, your damn right I predicted that before the season started. I wasn't looking too hot after their 1-2 start, but right now, this is probably my best call on the board. The Giants are, right now, the class of the NFC, and a real good bet for that one seed.
2.) Philadelphia Eagles 9-7
Preseason Prediction: 5-11; 4th NFC East
They are one win away from beating my total already, which puts them in rare company. In my defense, I thought that Kevin Kolb would be starting all year long, which probably makes them a 6-7 win team. Not in my defense, I never thought Vick would be this good anyway.
3.) Washington Redskins 8-8
Preseason Prediction: 9-7; 2nd NFC East
This record could happen, but after Shanahan started feuding with the other major offseason acquisition of the past two years in McNabb, I heavily doubt it. They Redskins need a QB for the future and a QB that Shanny won't belittle.
4.) Dallas Cowboys 3-13
Preseason Prediction: 7-9; 3rd NFC East
I've never been happier to overrate a team, ever (unless the Pats lose out - then you won't see me for weeks). They are just amazing to watch. Don't they have any pride?
NFC North
1.) Green Bay Packers 11-5 (3)
Preseason Prediction: 12-4; 1st NFC North (2)
I doubt they win 12 games, but this was also a good call. The Packers are still the class of that division. Ryan Grant probably pushes them to a 12 win team. They are underratedly hateable, I should mention. Not entirely sure why. Probably Rodgers stupid belt celebration.
2.) Chicago Bears 10-6 (6)
Preseason Prediction: 10-6; 2nd NFC North (6)
Their defense does have a chance to be good after all, being 4th in scoring. Devin Hester is still ridiculous, and Jay Cutler has stopped throwing horrible interceptions (save for that Washington game - Lord knows what happened there). The Bears are still a good team, and I have a good feeling about this prediction coming somewhat close to right.
3.) Minnesota Vikings 8-8
Preseason Prediction: 8-8; 3rd NFC North
I actually changed my mind one week into the season, despite their opening loss, I thought after a week that I underrated the Vikings. In fact, I rated them quite well. With the return of Sidney Rice, they have a chance to get to eight wins, and their schedule eases up. The pass rush is finally back.
4.) Detroit Lions 3-13
Preseason Prediction: 5-11; 4th NFC North
I thought Stafford would be healthy, which is where the 5-11 pick came from. He's probably not coming back this year. In a weird way, this sets up well for the Lions who can get a top flight corner with a really high draft pick for 2011. This team will skyrocket next season.
NFC South
1.) Atlanta Falcons 12-4 (2)
Preseason Prediction: 10-6; 2nd NFC South (5)
Thankfully I had the sense to get off the Panthers and get on the Falcons before the season started. I didn't think they would be able to upend the Saints at the top of the division, but I do now. They are amazingly tough to beat at home, and have an easy enough schedule to lock up a bye.
2.) New Orleans Saints 11-5 (5)
Preseason Prediction: 11-5; 1st NFC South (3)
11-5 isn't good enough to win the division easily anymore. The team is finally out of the doldrums of the first third of the season. What is surprising is that their defense has taken another step up this year. Their remaining schedule is really light.
3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8
Preseason Prediction: 3-13; 4th NFC South
I did not get the NFC South right at all. The Buccaneers have beaten all the teams that they had a chance to beat, which is really gallant of them. They are set up nicely for the future if they can short up that o-line and get a pass rusher. Josh Freeman has been way better than I ever expected.
4.) Carolina Panthers 2-14
Preseason Prediction: 9-7; 3rd NFC South
With Matt Moore done for the year, as well as Dan Conner and Jeff Otah, the Panthers are a total mess. The Panthers suck ass right now, and John Fox is coaching the team with all the urgency of a coach who knows that his tenure is all but over. I was so, so, so wrong.
NFC West
1.) St. Louis Rams 8-8 (4)
Preseason Prediction: 4-12; 4th NFC West
Yup, I'm predicting that for the second time in three years a team will make the playoffs the year after going 1-15. Sam Bradford is just good enough to get the Rams to eight games, which I do believe will get the job done. The Rams are really good in the Eddie Jones Dome.
2.) Seattle Seahawks 7-9
Preseason Prediction: 4-12; 3rd NFC West
I also didn't have a good time picking the NFC West before the season began. The Seahawks are now a mess as long as Charlie Whitehurst is the QB. Their defense can be solid, but they just are a year or two away from serious contention.
3.) Arizona Cardinals 6-10
Preseason Prediction: 7-9; 2nd NFC West
Whether it be Max Hall or Derek Anderson, this team desperately needs a new QB for 2011. Donovan McNabb? Marc Bulger? Troy Smith? Whoever it is, all he needs to do is be a caretaker. The Cardinals defense still has a lot of young pieces on it.
4.) San Francisco 49ers 4-12
Preseason Prediction: 10-6; 1st NFC West (4)
I said that the QB might doom a team that should be better than 10-6. Well, the QB and coach are dooming this team, but with the way that Aubrayo Franklin and Shawntea Spencer have fallen off, they probably couldn't sniff 10-6 even with Joe Flacco.
New Playoff Predictions
Wild Card Round
Saints (5) 27 Rams (4) 21
Texans (6) 20 Jets (3) 28
Bears (6) 23 Packers (3) 20
Ravens (5) 28 Raiders (4) 16
Divisional Weekend
Ravens (5) 17 Steelers (1) 20
Bears (6) 16 Giants (1) 27
Saints (5) 27 Falcons (2) 30
Jets (3) 14 Colts (2) 27
Championship Weekend
Falcons (2) 17 Giants (1) 24
Colts (2) 23 Steelers (1) 20
Super Bowl XLV
Colts (A2) 31 Giants (N1) 20
Super Bowl Champions
Indianapolis Colts
