It's almost draft time, which means I can finally end my NFL hiatus. It's been a relief to not have to write about a sport that left me scarred, but I'm over all that. It is time to turn over a new leaf and enter into the 2010 NFL Season. So, two days before draft time, which I will christen with a nice running diary for the first ever prime time draft, let's take stock of where the league's teams are before draft time.
32.) Denver Broncos (8-8)
I predicted them to go 2-14 last year. I'm probably going to do that for the upcoming season as well. I guess I was one year off on the Josh McDaniels' screwing up of the proud franchise. The Broncos had four bright spots last year. Orton, Marshall, Scheffler and Defensive Coordinator Mike Nolan. Well, L'il Josh got rid of three of them, and kept the quarterback who pretty much played to his peak last year. The one positive that can be said about what McDaniels did is he collected picks. Sadly, that is countered by McDaniels' inability to pick players, as seen by his misses on Robert Ayers and Darcel McBath last year. I'm sorry, but this upcoming season is going to be a disaster in Denver.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)
Above-his-head Raheem Morris is still there. Over-his-head Mark Dominek is still the G.M. Although there are some positives to note, like the hopeful maturation of Josh Freeman, and the continued development of their three-headed 'monst' (not quite a monster) at running back. The defense is now back to the old days in Tampa, such as the times between 1980-1992. To think that Jon Gruden had the team at 9-3 before Monte Kiffin announced that he would be leaving for the University of Tennessee. Since, 3-16, and only going to get worse.
30.) St. Louis Rams (1-15)
I'll assume they add Sam Bradford, and use him here, because he is really the only draft pick that can truly change his teams outlook in 2010. Sam Bradford will be a solid QB. I do NOT think he will ever be a Manning, Brady, Brees good. He doesn't have the smarts. However, he can easily attain a Philip Rivers type level. The rest of the team is getting better, and can probably pull off 3 or 4 wins, which at least puts the Rams ahead of the two below them. However, their old picks, like Howie Long's kid and Jason Smith need to improve, fast.
29.) Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)
If not for the Rams, the Chiefs would be known as the worst run organization in the NFL the past four years. They seemed to have wiffed mightily on their last two top-5 picks in Glenn Dorsey (who was the surest thing of all sure things) and Tyson Jackson. Their defense is in total tatters, as guys like Brandon Flowers did not develop. They still have Crazy as a head coach, and the most overrated QB in recent history in Matt Cassel. It is scary but the AFC West has two of the four worst teams in the league, and neither of them are the Raiders.
28.) Buffalo Bills (6-10)
When Chan Gailey is the new "savior of the franchise" times are surely dark. Their new savior at QB might be Jimmy Clausen, who emits "next J.P. Losman" if I ever saw one. I don't like Clausen at all, but that's for another time. The Bills have some talent, but it is sparing, and it is weak, as in physically. The Bills draft good athletes, but not necessarily strong, durable ones. Their injury woes never seem to stop. Now it finally looks as they have embraced rebuilding, after years and years being suckered into mediocrity by Dick Jauron. If this all works in them being able to get Jake Locker next year, then job well done Chan, job well done.
27.) Detroit Lions (2-14)
They have some pieces, assuming Stafford stays healthy and his o-line doesn't David Carr him again, to win 4-6 games. Jim Schwartz will get that defense playing better. Stafford-to-Megatron will become a top-5 QB-to-WR combo this year. The recent acquisition of Tony Scheffler gives them a nice 1-2 punch at TE, with him and Pettigrew, which drastically helps the o-line. I like where this team is headed. Their rise will coincide perfectly with the Vikings demise. Come 2013, the Lions will be playoff bound, the Vikes will be picking number three overall.
26.) Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)
I'll shoot them straight to the bottom if they waste a first round pick on a glorified H-Back like Tebow when they have a QB infinitely better than the "sacred one" in Garrard. They need to worry about getting a defense that can stop anybody, and a good o-line. If guys like Eben Britton and Sims-Walker continue to develop, they might have a frisky little offense. On the other hand, that defense needs serious improvement, and it better hurry as the Portland Watch continues.
25.) Cleveland Browns (5-11)
Ah, the most intriguing bad team in the NFL. They ended the year with four straight wins under what was thought to be a lame-duck in Eric Mangini (size-wise, more like a lame ostrich, or emu). However, Holmgren kept him, and now we have the great meeting of the coaching trees. Nearly every coach in the NFL is either in the Bill Walsh or the Bill Parcells coaching tree. They are distinctly different, but equally effective overall. Now, we finally get a meeting of the two. Holmgren is calling the shots, and that means that the QB position will at least be average. If Holmgren lets Mangini do his thing on defense, with new players Sheldon Brown, Chris Clemons and the cavalcade of picks they have, they can be a frisky team in 2010. They are well set up for the future, which is more than what can usually be said about the Browns.
24.) Seattle Seahawks (5-11)
I am holding out hope that they stay competitive in an average division. They don't have huge holes except for the o-line. If they had an average o-line they would be up in the late teens. They have receivers, they have a tight end, they have a QB (Hasselbeck), and they have players on defense like Tatupu and Aaron Curry. The wild card is how they handle Pete Carroll. Pete Carroll is not a huge change from the rah-rah Jim Mora, or even that big of a change from the player's coach in Holmgren, so I don't think it will be too bad.
23.) Oakland Raiders (5-11)
Yes, they are the second best team in the division, and with San Diego a huge wild card, they could just steal it if San Diego has a major non-Rivers injury (if Rivers goes down, it's wide open). They have alot more talent then generally thought. If they have a Gradkowski as a starting QB, they are a possible eight win team, but more likely 6-7. They can, when they want to, play solid pass defense. When they want to, they can run the ball. When they want to, they can pass at an average level. It is all about their will to play. If Cable can get them to play, .500 is in sight.
22.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)
Suffice it to say, their offseason was a joke. If you thought Philly fans were angry before, just wait until Kolb's second interception against the Cowboys. They have a solid nucleus in Kolb, McCoy, Celek, Maclin and DeSean, but going from McNabb to Kolb is a step down, at least for now. Also, silently, their defense was very average last year, and they got rid of Sheldon Brown, Chris Clemons, Chris Gocong and Will Witherspoon. Losing Jim Johnson as a defensive coordinator will really hurt now that most of the Johnson guys are gone. The team is building for the future, but that could easily lead to a bleak one in 2010.
21.) Washington Redskins (4-12)
I would be tempted to move them higher, but their o-line is still a mess, and McNabb isn't exactly the spry QB he used to be. He can be very good if he gets protection, but in Washington, that is a major "if." Rookie LTs do often play very well, so there is hope. Their defense is good, but can it stay that way. They also have some Raider in them on defense, in that they, for no good reason, fail to show up on defense some weeks in any shape or form. Mike Shanahan doesn't have a great history of building defenses either. I think they are wild-card contenders, but their real move forward might be in 2011.
20.) Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
Yes, Matt Leinart means this much. If Kurt Warner was still slinging it around in the desert, they are firmly in the top-10. Now, Leinart gets a bad rap. He is not bad by any stretch. However, he has certain limitations that will greatly hurt the trump card that the Cardinals used to have, their explosive offense. Even though they weren't as explosive deep downfield in '09, with Warner back there, the threat of a deep pass existed. Leinart simply does not have the arm to get good passes dowfield. Fitz will help keep the offense solvent in the short game. However, the real concern is the defense. The Cards have done a great job recently of drafting young defenders, but losing Karlos Dansby will hurt a lot in 2010. They still have a nice nucleus, but losing hall of fame QBs for untested youngsters usually doesn't go well in year one (See Packers, Green Bay 2008).
19.) Tennessee Titans (8-8)
They are a middle of the road team, no more, no less. With a normal coach, they are a five win team, but Fisher is good for two to three wins. If Young develops, they could possibly threaten for a wild card, but their defense is still young and the chances are that Chris Johnson will not have a 2,000 yard season again (although would anyone be shocked if he did?). Their secondary was in shambles at times last year, headlined by the mysterious dropoff to "suck" for one Mr. Michael Griffin. They are an interesting team to keep an eye on, though, if only for Chris Johnson.
18.) San Francisco 49ers (8-8)
If you are keeping track, yes, they are the highest ranked team in the NFC West. They, right now, are my pick to win their division assuming no team improves drastically in the draft. In fact, the draft can really help the niners as they have two top-20 picks, and if they get an o-lineman like Rutgers' own Anthony Davis, they can really play for a three or even a two seed. I believe in Alex Smith, but more importantly, I believe in Vernon Davis, Michael Crabtree, and Frank Gore. In fact, with Crabtree running amok underneath, Ted Ginn Jr. becomes a perfect complement. The 49ers have built themselves a nice little offense. The defense was very underrated last year. They are a nice sleeper for a divisional round appearance.
17.) Miami Dolphins (7-9)
Bye, bye Ted Ginn and family, hello Brandon Marshall, and the most surprisingly entertaining team just got more surprising. You have Bill Parcells, and the Parcells clone in Tony Sparano, versus serial weirdo Brandon Marshall, should be interesting. Getting Karlos Dansby was a huge move, as inside line backer was a huge weakness and Dansby is as good as they come. Their offense, if Henne develops as I think he will, could be quite good. The AFC East is a monster at the top, and if the Dolphins were in the AFC West or NFC West, they could be threatening the top-10.
16.) Atlanta Falcons (9-7)
Micheal Turner fell off a lot. Roddy White didn't have close to the same year. Tony Gonzalez was a disappointment. Matt Ryan had a real sophomore slump. Their defense was average, and didn't even get more than three games out of top draft pick Peria Jerry, the consensus number two DT last year behind BJ Raji. What did they finish? No, not 5-11, but 9-7. The Falcons may be boring, as they are not explosive, like to run the ball, have a no name defense and are led by a coach named Mike Smith, but they are also dangerous. In a division that is tough, the Falcons are the true wild card. They could continue their descent into mediocrity, or they could become a superpower. I went in the direction that they stay status quo, and make a major move in either direction in 2011. Just a little nugget, since 2005, the reigning Super Bowl Champ has won a grand total of two one playoff game (the '05 Pats beat Jacksonville), while the teams in the reigning champ (so the other three NFC South teams this year), have won five.
15.) Chicago Bears (7-9)
The offseason champions will now try to not go the way of the team they got the title from, the Redskins. In many ways, the Bears offseason was very Redskinian. They signed the perceived best player on the market (personally, I think he was the best player, but people have debated that) in Julius Peppers. Peppers is an ideal 4-3 DE, and Lovie Smith was at one point able to get great production from lesser DEs (Alex Brown, Adewale Ogunleye). He can really excel in the defense. Chester Taylor is another good pickup, as he has good legs for his age, sitting most of the past two years in Minny. However, what stops them from being higher is their not addressing their aging and below-average o-line and their lack of true receivers. They hope Johnny Knox and Devin Aromashadu get better. I have doubts. I know this, though, Cutler won't be that bad again. He can't be. Not in a Martz offense (see Kitna, John).
14.) New England Patriots (10-6)
Surprised? Don't be. The Pats are a team in total flux. On paper, they are a team with a lot of youth that has flown between outright busts (Jonathan Wilhite, Ron Brace), to good but slightly overrated impact player (Jerod Mayo, Brandon Meriwether). They are also a team with great, but aging talent (Brady, Moss). Brady will probably be better personally, but I doubt statistically. Welker was so, so important to the Pats last year. He totally replaced Moss as the lead receiver. There were multiple games (Saints, Dolphins) where the opposition doubled Welker and singled Moss, something unthinkable in 2007. They will really miss Welker for the first part of the season, and it is doubtful that he will be 100% at all in 2010. Their defense has a bunch of aging players and youth that hasn't panned out. It is time to see the Pats for what they are, a nice team that is capable of winning 12 games, but just as likely to win 8.
13.) San Diego Chargers (13-3)
The second "division winner" essentially, as the highest rated AFC West team, the Chargers are in for a bit of a fall. Certainly, their easy division will make them almost locks for the division title, but they may have to sweat in 2010. They were not nearly as good as their 13-3 record, or ten game win streak suggested. They have major, major holes on defense on all three levels. Cromartie's trade and Merriman's continued sucking definitely doesn't help that. Tomlinson is gone, and although his skills have depreciated, teams still had to account for the possibility of running plays. Sproles is not an every down back. In essence, they are a slightly more fluctuable form of the Pats, with an offense that can drop 40 on bad teams easily, but will have a hard time consistently beating good teams.
12.) New York Giants (9-7)
I still have hope. They were piss awful at the end of 2009, but I think that was an abberation. They are nowhere near that bad, but are also nowhere near as good as the team that started 5-0. In reality, the Giants are still the second best team in the NFC East, but need a lot more from their highly touted offseason class of 2009, such as Rocky Bernard, Chris Canty and Michael Boley. Getting Kenny Philips back should help, as should the addition of Antrelle Rolle, but the Giants need their pass rush to start working to its potential. The offense is fine, as they can score on anybody, at least to the level where they should be in each game, depending on the defense. I think the motivation to get over the crash and burn the 2009 Giants undertook is there to make this a dangerous, dangerous team in a hyped, but overrated division.
11.) Carolina Panthers (8-8)
The sleeper of the season. Sure, the lost Peppers, but that is why they drafted Everrette Brown in 2009. Sure, they have a hole at Wide Receiver, but that has never stopped them in the past. Matt Moore looked very, very good last year, almost like a Jeff Garcia circa 2000 type of QB. Their running game is arguably the best in the league, and if DeAngelo and J-Stewart can stay healthy, they can top 2,500 as a tandem. Their o-line is still solid as a rock. Their LB corp is great, and they have players in the secondary. The only wildcard is Moore, and seeing that it doesn't take a lot at QB to make the Panthers into a playoff team (see: 2008), they should challenge the Saints for the NFC South title, or at least be in the thick of the wild card race.
10.) Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
Man, Ben Roethlisberger's stupid actions ruined it. I was all set to put the Steelers at number 3, but Ben had to go out and hang around 20 year olds. I have no idea if he did anything, and personally since there is no evidence but testimony from a highly drunk woman, I don't see how he can be suspended, but he will be, and from what I hear the minimum is four games, and it is likely to be eight. I think if it is four the Steelers can recover, assuming they go 2-2 in those four. If it is eight, write them off. They have the ability to go 12-4, or 6-10. The Steelers are a team in flux in 2010. Their defense should rebound, because it always does. If Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalu stay healthy, which they normally do, they can be as good as the 2008 version, but their offense will kill their chances at a division title.
9.) Minnesota Vikings (12-4)
This is assuming Brett Favre comes back, although the jarring silence from Hattiesburgh has me nervous about that proposition. Anyway, if he comes back, I doubt he can be as good as the 2009 Favre, but he can be 80% as good. Peterson will probably rebound, and another year of Harvin and Rice should help the air game even more. However, their defense is what keeps them high. Their defense is still very good, and can dominate games singlehandidly. They are in a really competitive division at the top, and I think they are not the favorites, but I will be shocked if they have Favre and are not in the wild card mix come December.
8.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)
Their only move of note was trading for Antonio Bryant, which could help fill a need, but their passing game is not why I have them this high. Their defense, which improved to a top-5 unit in 2009 should get better. They saw what the AFC North was all about, and got on board quickly. They return Joseph, Hall, Jackson, Rivers, Maualuga, and Ndukwe but what makes them possibly special is the return of Antwan Odom who was the sack leader when he got hurt. Guys like Maualuga and Rivers should only improve their LB corp, and Marvin Lewis has done a great job in coaching up guys like Robert Geathers, Jonathan Fanene, Dumata Peko and Frostee Rucker. He has mashed them into a very servicable D-Line. Look for Michael Johnson, a high-risk, high-reward prospect taken last year who came on strong late, to take a step further and solidify the d-line even more. Also, let's not forget, they did win that division last year.
7.) Houston Texans (9-7)
Ah, the perennial "team that will make the leap." They were everyone's darling in 2008 and 2009, but people failed to notice they played in a deadly division, and were still getting better. In 2008 they were a legitimate 8-8 team, unlike in 2007 when they lucked into it. And they did get better in 2009. They were a 10-6 or 11-5 team that just hadn't learned how to win yet. They had the worst kicker in the league who singe-handidly cost the Texans two games. They twice fumbled on the goal-line one yard away from tying their game and sending it into overtime. They have to learn how to win. The two teams I compare the 2010 Texans to are the 1995 Packers and 1999 Titans. The three years preceding those, the Packers were 9-7, 9-7, 9-7 and the Titans were 8-8, 8-8, 8-8. They were the team that continually burned everyone as they failed to live up to being the sleeper. The Pack, from 1995 on, they went on a 11-5, 13-3, 13-3, 11-5 run. The Titans? They went on a 13-3, 13-3, 7-9, 11-5, 12-4 run. The Texans have the possibility to win 11-13 games. As a Colts fan, I am very scared.
6.) Dallas Cowboys (11-5)
I hate to do it, but they deserve such high billing. They have stayed quiet throughout FA, keeping intact a team with high chemistry and talent. The 'Boys have one of the league's best running games, and a QB that can torch bad to average defenses. Romo still struggles against premier defenses, but their running game can run on anyone. However, it is their defense that puts them in the top-6. Wade Philips churned out the NFC's best defense last year, headlined by the major improvements by Mike Jenkins and Marcus Spears. The Cowboys defense is very, very good and will keep them in every game. The 'Boys are the prohibitive favorites in the NFC East again.
5.) New York Jets (9-7)
Yes, they have suckered me in. Although I understand entirely why Pittsburgh made the Holmes deal, and don't blame them, I am smart enough to admit that the Jets got Santonio in a steal. He will miss the first four games, but even 12 games of Holmes is better than 16 with Cotchery as the number two. Edwards-Holmes-Cotchery is one of the best WR trio's in the league, and Keller finally was ressurected in the playoffs. The big question mark is Sanchez. He seemed to turn the corner in the playoffs, but at times he was horrific in the regular season. He can improve like Flacco did, or he can stay the same like Matt Ryan. The Jets have to hope its the former. The Jets defense is essentially the same. I feel like subtracting Kerry Rhodes is as good as getting Antonio Cromartie, as Cromartie has really regressed since his 2007 heyday. The Jets are the favorite in the AFC East, and yes I struggled to finish typing those words.
4.) Green Bay Packers (11-5)
It took three years, but the Packers are finally as good as they were last season with Favre. Now, I don't think Rodgers will be as good as he was in 2009, because his game was really lucky, in that he had an atypically low interception rate, and so on, but their defense is still as good as anybody's. That defense has players all over it, and with the development of BJ Raji, Clay Matthews (who was already damn good), AJ Hawk, Tramon Williams, etc, they can get even better. Jermichael Finley just complements a great WR trio of Jennings-Driver-Jones that can get yards in bunches. The Packers are very, very good. 13-win good.
3.) Baltimore Ravens (9-7)
The team with the most important offseason, in that they finally got a wide receiver. Their two playoff games showed just how lacking the Ravens were at the WR position, and Anquan Boldin is the perfect receiver for them. All young quarterbacks need a WR that can catch the easy underneath stuff and get YAC like Boldin. He will be surely missed in 'Zona, but surely loved in Baltimore. That defense will always be about as good as it has always been, and with the improvement of guys like Paul Kruger, Antwan Barnes, Tavares Gooden and Dannell Ellerbe can provide a boost to a linebacker corp that has gotten a little innefective at rushing the passer in recent years for people not named Terrell Suggs. Ed Reed back healthy will make them only that much better in the back end, and if Fabian Washington, Foxworth and Ladarius Webb can make their secondary great again. The Ravens are a team that will totally take advantage of the Steelers problems and rise to the top of the AFC.
2.) Indianapolis Colts (14-2)
They did what they needed to, in keeping Gary Brackett and Melvin Bullitt, but it is the return of key guys that can easily make them better than the team that won every game they tried to until Super Bowl XLIV. Anthony Gonzalez's return just adds to an awesome receiving corp, giving the Colts the deepest set of pass-catchers to couple with the league's best quarterback. That's a combination that cannot be overstated. Their defense will get the services of Bob Sanders back, for at least one game, and any Sanders is a plus. Their young rookies that were needed to play a huge role in 2010 like Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey will get better. Clint Session and Phillip Wheeler continue to develop. Other than the o-line, and a third Defensive End, which the Colts have made noises that they are targeting in the draft, the Colts have no holes and good depth. Plus, they have Manning, and an angry Manning after that tough Super Bowl defeat.
1.) New Orleans Saints (13-3)
Do I truly think they are the best team? That is debatable. However, they have to get the respect that the defending champs merit. They are the top team in the NFL because they wear the crown as the 2010 season kicks off in earnest on Thursday. They still have Drew Brees and an incredible stable of offensive weapons and a young, good offensive line. Their defense probably won't be as good in 2010, because they weren't that good in 2009, but were able to create a lot of turnovers, something that does not really hold year to year. Plus, Darren Sharper may not come back, and his importance on that defense cannot be understated. However, none of that matters. As much as I hate to admit it, they did win Super Bowl XLIV, and are the top team heading into the draft for that reason.
