Yes, the draft has changed things, certainly. No time for small talk, let's get to the rankings.
32.) Denver Broncos (pre-draft: 32)
Hey, I'm pretty sure that I had them here last year as well, and they ended up 8-8, however last year they had Brandon Marshall and Tony Scheffler, as well as Mike Nolan. Now they don't have any of those three, they have a logjam of average at QB, no good receiver, an aging o-line, and a geriatric defense. Also, they have a dictator of a head coach, and a man who just CANNOT draft. At all. His picks last year were awful, and drafting Tebow when the team had loads of other needs doesn't help much either. Mark my word: they will almost certainly suck.
31.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (31)
I like what they did in the draft, except they did not get a receiver other than Arrelyious Benn, who is not ready to play at a high level today. Their QB situation is still up in arms and they have a coach who is still over his head. I'll say this about the Bucs, though, Gerald McCoy and Brian Price will make it very hard to run on the Bucs. There is something positive, I guess.
30.) Kansas City Chiefs (29)
The first team to move goes down one spot. I really was not that impressed with Kansas City's draft. Sure, Eric Berry is a good player, a great one, in fact. But really? Dexter McCluster? Another running back to a team with Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. Really? Javier Arenas? A kick returner? Come on. They need some more on the o-line at tackle. Jon Asamoah is nice, but at the end of the day, guards can't really change games like that. They need some serious work.
29.) St. Louis Rams (30)
I like what they did, so I bumped them up a spot. They got the best QB in the draft, and a very NFL-ready Left Tackle to protect him in Roger Saffold. They have the people to protect the QB, they have people to catch the ball, and they have a beast at running back. Sadly, their defense is still a mess, but at least there is marked improvement on one side of the ball, and for a team that has won only six games in the last three years, that means alot.
28.) Jacksonville Jaguars (26)
The first team to take a multi-spot fall, the Jaguars see themselves slide back. This is probably an overreaction, since David Garrard is a league average QB, and they still have MJD and Mike Sims-Walker, but Tyson Alualu? That deserves a drop. They drafted two DTs in their first two picks when they play in the passing conference (most of the running teams reside in the NFC). They have done little to upgrade their pass rush than a signing of an injured, old Aaron Kampman. I want Jacksonville to do well since I don't want to see them leave, but its hard.
27.) Buffalo Bills (28)
Somehow, they move up a spot only because their draft wasn't as bad as Jacksonville's, and they never seem to totally hit rock bottom, as they hover mindlessly among the 4-7 win category. If I were the Bills I would throw the season just to get the chance to draft Jake Locker. In fact, if I were Pat Bowlen, I would do the same, just so I could fire Josh McDaniels and draft Locker. Anyway, Spiller will provide some nice excitement, and that defense should help Buffalo steal 5 games.
26.) Detroit Lions (27)
I like where they are headed. One more good draft and they are a wild-card sleeper in 2011. Coach Jim Schwartz and GM Martin Meyhew have a plan, know their weaknesses and are addressing them. They have now surrounded Stafford with playmakers on offense, and drafted the anchor for what they hope will help resurge the league's worst defense in 2009. Dare I say it, the Lions seem like a well-run franchise.
25.) Cleveland Browns (25)
They just have a brutal division, because they have the talent there to win 8 games. Eric Mangini, for all his faults, can coach defense with any players. Now, he has actual players, like Joe Haden, T.J. Ward, Chris Gocong. You know, players. However, that offense is still below average and Colt McCoy, who I think will be a good to very good NFL QB, will not contribute in 2009. They are headed the right way.
24.) Arizona Cardinals (20)
It's strange that the Cardinals will take the worst fall in the pre-to-post-draft rankings, since I liked their draft. However, I overrated them at first. I forgot how big the drop is between hall-of-famer Kurt Warner and Matt Leinart. This can easily be a 6 win team, which is what the 24th best team is. They still have talent, but they have alot of youth on defense, and although they drafted a damn good player as his replacement, Karlos Dansby and Antrell Rolle will be missed.
23.) Philadelphia Eagles (22)
They didn't do enough on draft to to help their stock since the teams in similar positions in the pre-draft rankings had great drafts. They are nowhere near this bad in actuality, but as seen by Aaron Rodgers in 2008, a young green QB, even one as talented as Kolb, taking over for a future hall-of-famer will lower a teams win totals dramatically in year one. I don't think it will be as drastic, since the Packers won 7 less games, but a 7-9 year is not out of the question.
22.) Seattle Seahawks (24)
Man, did they have a good draft. It can become a great one if Leon Washington rebounds from his knee injury. Russell Okung will be a star. Earl Thomas adds another weapon to a young, but talented defense. I just wish I could trust the Hawks at QB, with an aging and oft-injured Hasselbeck, and at head coach. Carroll is a step-up from Jimmy Mora, but he's a step down from Holmgren. And with the Walrus at the helm, this is a ten win team.
21.) Oakland Raiders (23)
They won the draft, and there is no Raiders curve here. They really had a great draft as they picked up solid players in the first two rounds, then three high-upside picks in rounds 3-4, and a couple more nice pieces. The key is Jason Campbell. He's a league-average QB, and he can help the Raiders tremendously. I mean, the Raiders beat the Eagles with JaMarcus last year, and the Bengals and Steelers with Bruce Gradkowski. Campbell can get the nation to 8-8.
20.) Washington Redskins (21)
The team that got rid of Campbell did nothing to truly help them on draft day, but they get up a spot because they are a shade better than the team they traded Campbell to, and the Eagles got worse. The Redskins are a fringe playoff contender, and I would not be schocked in the least if they make the playoffs, but in all honesty, the NFL is filled with fringe playoff contenders. Everyone from 24 down I can conceivably see in the playoffs.
19.) Miami Dolphins (17)
They get knocked for a less than draft. They did address their huge need, in getting Kao Misi, but they did not address their need at TE or at the defensive end position. I think they are one year away, and will eventually replace the Pats as the other team in the AFC East by 2012. Parcells knows what he's doing, and so does Tony Sparano. The key is Chad Henne, as if he develops they could challenge that 9-7, 10-6 barrier, and with Marshall as a great short-ball target, he should develop.
18.) Chicago Bears (15)
They get knocked for an average draft day as well. They had little margin for error, becuase they lost their first (Cutler trade) and second (Gaines Adams) picks in the draft. Major Wright and Corey Wooten are both good players (Wooten especially) and should help that defense, but they did not get anyone, through free agency or draft, to help out at WR, which remains a black-hole of average heading into the season. Good news for Bears fans is that Martz has done a lot with even lesser talent at WR.
17.) San Francisco 49ers (18)
The only reason they jump up is because Chicago had a worse draft. They definitely improved their o-line with those top two picks, but they still have a need at corner and on the defensive line. Alex Smith should be an NFL-caliber player now, and he has no more excuse if he doesn't lead the niners to the playoffs. They are in the weakest division in the league, and he's got a high-priced o-line, a possession guy in Crabtree, a deep threat in Ginn and a beast in Vernon. They are primed to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002.
16.) New England Patriots (14)
I'm gonna live and die with this prediction: The Patriots are NOT making the playoffs. They drafted nice players at TE and McCourty should help shore up an at times horrid secondary. But I am not a believer in Cunningham being a great impact player, and Spikes is vastly overrated. They still have holes at LB, age questions at d-line, and Moss another year older and Welker out for half the year. The Pats are teetering near the edge, and they need this years class to pan out and the 2009 draft class to get better really soon or they will fall off.
15.) Tennessee Titans (19)
I'm giving the Titans the biggest jump up because of Graham. He's an ideal Titan, and he made me remember that the Titans have stockpiled these type of defenders for years, like Jacob Ford, Jason Jones, David Ball, etc. They have a good defense, especially up front and Chris Johnson is still Chris Johnson. They're probably not as good as the team that finished the year 6-2, but are still a team that could win 10 games. Jeff Fisher still is an amazing coach.
14.) Atlanta Falcons (16)
They had a nice draft. Corey Peters and Jason Franks are solid players that are low-risk, medium-reward. Sean Witherspoon has a chance for defensive rookie of the year (which is almost an exclusive linebacker award). However, this is a pick in faith of Matt Ryan. He's not as good as the media trumped him to be as "the next Peyton Manning", but he has the ability to lead the Falcons back to the playoffs. Roddy White and Mike Jenkins are still good players, and Michael Turner should rebound. They are one of the most intriguing teams.
13.) San Diego Chargers (13)
This still puts them at the class of the AFC West, but the Chargers missed on this draft. They could have moved up like five spots and still gotten Ryan Matthews (which was a good pick), and kept that second round pick to shore up the defense. The Chargers have a ton of youth and homegrown talent on that defense, but they are all players who were seen as the next wave of talent that made the Chargers the "most talented, deep team in the NFL" for five straight years. Also, I feel that people will finally learn how to defend Phil Rivers.
12.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10)
They drop because I am not sure that this Ben thing will end as smoothly as I feel. They also have a murderous schedule. If they go 3-3 without Ben, they probably need a 7-3 finish which will be tough, considering the two main competitors in their division got better. Jason Worilds is going to be another stashed linebacker like Timmons and Woodley were in their rookie year. Getting a guard can only do so much. They still have the talent, but they might have to wait until 2011 to put up the 13-3 record that they are capable of.
11.) New York Giants (12)
They are still a major competitor for that division, as their defense cannot possibly be that bad again. Their first three picks are all impact defenders, but they all need a learning curve of a year, so it is time for the 2009 Giants defensive class to start pulling some weight. Rocky Bernard, Chris Canty and Michael Boley need to start impacting games, now, because their offense is good enough to win 10 games by themselves.
10.) Carolina Panthers (11)
I'm guessing Matt Moore lasts the entire season, which sets up an interesting QB competition in the future. More on that later. As for now, the Panthers are primed for a nice year. They are being undervalued, especially considering they finished 2009 on an 8-5 run. They have the league's best running game, and running the ball is going to become baseball's version of defense, as it is so undervalued nationally, that is becomes extremely underrated. Carolina can win that division, you heard it here first.
9.) Minnesota Vikings (9)
Favre will come back. If he doesn't, drop them 10 spots. If he does, I don't think he will have another 33 - 7 td-int year. He will still be good, and with Toby Gerhart acting as the wham to Peterson's bam, and Sidney Rice becoming Favre's favorite target since Antonio Freeman, the Vikings are still very much alive in the playoff picture. Their defense will get a nice boost out of Chris Cook shoring up the secondary and Everson Griffen adding another talent to that d-line.
8.) Dallas Cowboys (6)
I don't know why I dropped them. Truly, they should be higher, but its an AFC World, and teams like Dallas and Minny are just living in it. Bringing along a baggagy receiver hasn't worked in the past, so I don't think the Dez Bryant experience will be smooth. Also, their o-line is in transition. Their defense is still very, very good, but there are ways to beat it. All the pieces add up, but much like San Diego in 2007-2009, the 'Boys are always a bridesmaid, never a bride.
7.) Cincinnati Bengals (8)
They are the sleeping giant of the 2010 season. Everyone has forgotten, what with all the Baltimore hoolpa and the Ben rap-la, that the Bengals won that division in 2009. What have they done in the offseason: pick up low-risk, high-reward Antonio Bryant, get Antwan Odom back (the sack leader before he got hurt), and draft great players. Jermaine Gresham is a much needed tight end. Carlos Dunlap can be great. Geno Atkins, the DT from Georgia, will be. Jordan Shipley is a perfect slot receiver, and Brandon Ghee has the skills to be the best nickel in the league. The Bengals are a team that has a very, very realistic shot at back-to-back playoffs.
6.) Houston Texans (7)
Yeah, let's not underrate them. The Texans were a kicker away from 11-5 last year, and a running back with hands away from 12-4. If they ever learn how to win games, they are threatening the Colts for that division, and that scares the hell out of me. Everything is set up for them to be the league's best offense. Matt Schaub is finally staying healthy. Kevin Walter is healthy, as is Owen Daniels. Ben Tate is the perfect running back to pair with Steve Slaton. Dorin Dickerson is a great pick in round seven. If they get average defense, they are a playoff team.
5.) New York Jets (5)
I wanted to move the Jets up, but teams 5-3 all had great drafts, and offseasons in general. They have seperated themselves from teams 10-6. All the Jets did was get another good cornerback, giving them a scarily good defense. Vladimir Ducasse can be an immediate starter, as the other four studs on their o-line can bring him along. Mark Sanchez should improve, and when you think that they were a playoff team when Sanchez was horrible at times last year, look out.
4.) Baltimore Ravens (3)
They had a good draft, but they drop slightly. Sergio Kindle has injury concerns, and on an otherwise old defensive team, that could pose a problem. I love what they did with that offense, in getting Boldin and TE Ed Dickson, giving Joe Flacco two new toys. Joe Flacco can be a great one, and the Ravens have set him up for that. The Reed-Lewis era really has only three great years left, so the immediate window for winning with those guys is nearing its end, but the Ravens are brilliantly set up with a long-term window built on offense.
3.) Green Bay Packers (4)
The Packers addressed its biggest with a great value pick in Bryan Bulaga, and with that, they jump the Ravens. The Packers are scary good, especially with some of their other picks as possible contributors in 2010. Morgan Burnett is a nice safety to add to their secondary rotation. They drafted two DE/DT guys that can help shore up that defensive front. The steal is James Starks in round 6, who helps take some pressure of Ryan Grant. The Packers are pretty much perfect.
2.) Indianapolis Colts (2)
And so are the Colts. O-line is a weakness, sure, but with Manning, o-line is never truly a weakness. They have enough capability on the line. The key is that defense staying healthy, which it is at this point. Also, the Colts filled their only need: a 3rd DE. Jerry Hughes was born to be a Colts defensive end. He's a Freeney clone, and help bolster a pass rush that can have weak moments. Pat Angerer is Gary Brackett's eventual replacement, and gives good rotational value. Thomas adds to a secondary that has a lot of good bodies in it. The Colts are as good as ever.
1.) New Orleans Saints (1)
They still are the champs. Truthfully, I don't think they are the best team, nor did they have a great draft. But they are the champs, they have the best offense, and Gregg Williams is still there to coax that defense to glory. The Saints are the top team in these rankings until they lose. Period.
Amazingly Early Playoff Predictions
(these are not based entirely on the Power Rankings)
AFC
1.) Indianapolis (14-2)
2.) Baltimore (13-3)
3.) New York (12-4)
4.) San Diego (10-6)
5.) Cincinnati (11-5)
6.) Houston (11-5)
Wild Card Round
New York defeats Houston 24-21
Cincinnati defeats San Diego 27-16
Divisional Round
Indianapolis defeats Cincinnati 30-17
Baltimore defeats New York 20-16
Championship
Indianapolis defeats Baltimore 24-16
NFC
1.) Green Bay (13-3)
2.) New Orleans (12-4)
3.) New York (11-5)
4.) San Francisco (9-7)
5.) Carolina (10-6)
6.) Atlanta (10-6)
Wild Card Round
New York defeats Atlanta 28-20
Carolina defeats San Francisco 24-20
Divisional Round
Green Bay defeats Carolina 31-20
New York defeats New Orleans 31-27
Championship
Green Bay defeats New York 27-21
Super Bowl XLV
Indianapolis defeats Green Bay 34-20
