My 18 Favorite Peyton Manning Games, Pt. 1: #18 - #13

I might as well rename this blog for Peyton Manning. I will be writing about him, a lot, over the next few weeks as I continue to process my life as a football fan without him in it.

Anyway, next up on my remembrance tour, a ranking of my favorite Manning games. These aren't his best games, or necessarily the most dramatic (though the ones high up are plenty dramatic), but just the ones that I will always remember.


18.) 2013 Week 13 - Broncos 35 @ Chiefs 28

Recap: The only 2013 regular season game to make my cut was maybe the best example of how dominant the Broncos offense was at its best. Here they were on the road, at 9-2, up against a similarly 9-2 Kansas City team. It was a huge game, probably the biggest road game Manning had played in his Denver career given the stakes... and the Chiefs took a 21-7 lead as Manning struggled with two picks. And then, the Broncos went TD (run by Moreno), punt, TD, TD, TD. Those last three TDs made it 35-21, and the last two were both 90+ yards. Again, this was on the road against the to-that-point, best defense in the AFC. The first TD drive took five plays. Two were runs for no gain. One was incomplete. The other two were the TD - 15 yards to Decker - and a deep throw to Thomas for 77. The next took 10 plays, went 95 yards, and the Broncos converted three third downs. It was a magical performance in a season full of them, but this was their biggest. Manning's 2013 season was full of ridiculous games, but I don't think any game showed just how good and well crafted that offense was than a 14-point comeback with 28-unanswered against a very good team on the road.

17.) 2004 Week 16 - Chargers 31 @ Colts 34 

The Colts entered their Week 16 game with an 11-3 record, but so did the Chargers. Manning entered the game with 47 TDs on the year. It was a big late season game, though both teams were locked into the #3 and #4 seed, but the threat of Manning breaking Marino's TD record took over much of the media coverage. Manning did get that record, a 15-yard seam throw to Stokley, but it was the game situation that surrounded the record that made the game special. The Chargers, as they did throughout Manning's Colts career, somewhat stifled the Colts offense, and the Chargers offense was unstoppable. The Chargers took a 31-16 lead, and for once in the 2004 season, the Colts needed Manning and his offense. Peyton Manning had the best season a QB will ever have in 2004, combining ridiculous efficiency with less throws than ever. This game was different. He threw, and threw and threw, for 383 yards total. After starting the second half out with a 3-and-out, the Colts went TD, missed FG, TD to tie the game. Both the TDs were by Manning's arm, including the great record-breaker which tied the game. Manning had many 4th quarter comebacks. Given the record he broke in this game, and the eventual meaningless-ness of the win, this is not one of the more memorable comebacks. But it should be, as it was a truly memorable game.

16.) 2005 Week 11 - Colts 45 @ Bengals 37

 A forgotten great shootout, the Bengals were the first team to really challenge the 2005 Colts. The Colts entered the game 9-0, winning all by 7 points. Their largest challenge was against the Rams, where they became the first team in NHL history to win a game by 17 where they trailed by 17 (winning 45-28 after trailing 0-17). Here, though, the Bengals fought the Colts point for point. The Bengals themselves entered at 7-2 in their breakout season with Palmer, and saw this as their coming-out-party. And what a party it was. The score at halftime was 35-27. Yes, there were 10 different scoring drives in the first half, with an incredible number of close plays. The Colts took a 14-3 lead with a 66 yard TD pass to Reggie Wayne. Palmer answered right back with a 68-yarder to Chad Johnson. The Colts offense was actually relatively worse than their defense in 2005 to this point, but in this game the Colts offense had to make up for their defense, and they did by starting the game TD, TD, TD, TD, TD. Of course, the Bengals went FG, TD, TD, punt, FG, TD, TD themselves. In the end, the Colts were slightly stronger, better in the red zone, and the Colts just happened to have the all last. Nothing separated the two best QBs in the NFL in 2005 on this day (yes, Carson Palmer was the 2nd best in '05), and the only ever game between Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning in Palmer's stadium was a delight to watch.

15.) 2006 AFC Divisional - Colts 15 @ Ravens 6

This is the only game on the list where Manning was abjectly not very good. But given both the quality of the Ravens, and the way ex-Ravens speak about this game, maybe Manning was really good after all. The stats are not pretty for Peyton and the offense. Manning went 15-30, for 170 yards and two INTs. The Colts never found the end zone. Then again, the Ravens gave up just 12 points per game in the regular season at home. They were loaded defensively, with 10 of their 11 players going to a pro bowl in their careers. The Ravens defense played about as well as you can, confusing Maning into bad throw after bad throw. But Manning confused them back, calling out blitz after blitz, and hitting throws in frighteningly tight windows. Two plays really exemplified the Manning performance. First was a 30-yard throw to Dallas Clark, with Adalius Thomas bearing down right in his face. The other was the clincher, clinging to a 12-6 lead with three minutes to go, facing 3rd and 5 outside of field goal range, Manning threw a spot-perfect pass to a very covered Dallas Clark. It was a dumb decision, but a brilliant throw. Ray Lewis swears to this day he has no idea how Manning completed that pass. It was the best bad performance ever, in a game of chess so good grand-masters would have been proud.

14.) 2003 AFC Divisional - Colts 38 @ Chiefs 31

Another trip to Arrowhead 10 years before the other one on this list was nearly as good. Once again, both offenses dominated, and Manning at his best against the Chiefs offensive machine at their best produced to date the only playoff game without even one punt. Both teams had just 8 possessions. The Colts scored 5 TDs, one field goal, one meaningless turnover on downs (in KC territory) and one drive that ended the first half. Manning was in full control, going 22-30 for 304 yards and 3 TDs. All three were different, but great. First was a perfect seam throw to Stokley, then a roll-out throw to fullback Todd Lopienski, and finally an absolutely spot-perfect arced throw to Reggie Wayne. The Chiefs were nearly as good. Priest Holmes ran for 200 yards. They're only failed drives were a missed field goal, a fumble (basically the difference in the game), and a 1-play drive to end the game. They also ran back a kick-off - Dante Hall was really, really good - but it was no match. The Colts had various stretches in the Manning era when their offense was impossibly great, but maybe no two-game stretch was as good as their 41-10 win over Denver (perfect passer rating for Manning) and this classic. As Dick Enberg said after the TD throw to Wayne, 'How good is the Colts' good?"

13.) 2014 Week 6 - 49ers 17 @ Broncos 42

I feel sad just talking about this game, as it represents how good Peyton Manning was so recently. This was, along with the game to follow it against the Chargers, Peyton Manning's last great vintage performance. He was deadly against the still-thought-to-be-great 49ers in the game he set the NFL record for TDs. Manning was peerless, going 22-26 for 318 yards and 4 TDs. His record breaker was to Demaryius Thomas in the second quarter, making it 21-3. It was a primetime affair, as so many legendary Manning games were, and there was a nice little celebration after it. The Broncos entered halftime up 21-10. But what really made the game special was what the Broncos did to start the 2nd half. They went TD, TD, TD, including a perfect 40-yard throw for Manning to Denver. The game ended in a rout, and really showed how Manning was, somehow, better in 2014 through 6 games than he was the year before. Manning was playing at a level few have ever seen. His arm atually seemed stronger at this point than at any time in his Denver career. Two weeks later, his 6-1 Broncos would lose to the 5-2 Patriots. Two weeks later they would lose in St. Louis. Two weeks later Manning would tear his quad. He was never the same. But before all that started, Manning put together one last near-perfect performance on a Sunday Night.

Quick Thoughts on Manning's Retirement

I've never once removed a post after I hit the 'publish' button. I've edited a few - mostly to add pictures or correct grammatical mistakes (though even those I generally leave in). If there ever was a time to delete one it would be this, less than 24 hours after I decided to publish a list of teams who I think could make sense for Peyton Manning in 2016, the man himself decides to call it a career.

I honestly haven't had too much time to think about Peyton retiring. I did pretty much feel this was going to happen ever since he got his job back in Week 16, and the Super Bowl run only re-inforced that. I readied myself to some degree, but I still don't know exactly how I am feeling now, how I will feel when he has his 'Colts' retirement, and how I will feel next September when he is not there.

I saw the news when I woke up in a daze during a weekend with friends in Austin. I missed the press conference as I was busy at work. I think nothing shows his career more than I started following him when I was in 6th grade, and when he finally retired, I couldn't watch my favorite athlete's retirement press conference because I had actual adult responsibilities.

Peyton Manning goes out a Champion, twice over. I could care less about the number of RINGZZ a player has when judging them historically, but even to me I feel good knowing he got a chance to lift that trophy again. Peyton Manning also goes out with a great end to a dreadful season. I understand why he came back for 2015, and obviously in the end it was the right call, but more than a 2nd ring, I'm thankful his career didn't end with a 4 interception performance against the Chiefs.

Peyton Manning has meant more to me than any athlete I've followed - and given how one's interest in sports tends to fade as you get older, he will likely hold that place forever. And he should. I've never invested more time and energy into any one player like I did with Peyton. I think I've written more about him, whether here or on Social Media, or even dating back a few years to my time on Colts-specific blogs, than I did on the other list of my favorite athletes combined.

Peyton Manning taught me a lot about sports and football; through him I learned more about the game than I can possibly imagine. But he gave me so many other gifts as well. He taught me a lot of life lessons that I plan to detail in a separate post. Through my interest in him and the Colts, he gave me a whole on-line community to interact with, first in blog-form at the Colts SB Nation site Stampede Blue, and my personal favorite sports blog, 18to88.com. I've become online friends with a decent amount of that little crazy community.

Peyton gave me, more than anything else, a lot of joy. The blogger of 18to88, Nate Dunlevy once said a truly profound statement, probably in response to another person mentioning the 'playoff failures' of Manning, that the job of any football team and / or player is to give the fan a Happy Sunday. For year after year, Peyton gave us all 10-14 Happy Sundays. There were some bad ones, some infamous ones, but 75% of the time, they were happy.

Peyton Manning is the best QB I ever saw play. He will also hold that title for a long time. If his retirement does anything, it know makes Peyton a player I can remember fondly as a part of the past rather than obsess over constantly as a part of my present. I can watch those old games, the classic Manning performances and look back on what he once was at his peak.

I will have more Peyton Manning-related posts in the next few weeks, a few that were already in the works, and maybe a few more that were written years ago - mostly when he left the Colts - updated with some new information and feelings gathered over his Denver coda. To end this, I want to leave this with the transcript of his heartfelt, touching and deeply personal goodbye:

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"In my very first NFL game, I completed my first pass to Hall of Fame running back Marshall Faulk. I threw a touchdown in that same game to Marvin Harrison, who would be inducted into the Hall of Fame this August.

The quarterback for our opponent, the Miami Dolphins, was, after my dad, my favorite player -- Hall of Famer Dan Marino, who on the first third down of the game completed a 25-yard skinny post. And it was the damndest throw I’d ever seen.

Later, I completed a pass to tight end Marcus Pollard down the middle and somebody hit me really hard and after I got up I told myself, “I know I can play in this league.”

Later in that struggling season, we played in and lost to Baltimore. It was the first time that the Colts had returned to Baltimore since they had moved back in 1984. We didn’t exactly get a warm reception that day. The fans were screaming at me and I kept thinking, “Hey, I was only 8 years old then, get off of my back.”

I had met him once before but when the game was over I had the chance to shake Johnny Unitas’ hand. He told me, “Peyton, you stay at it. I’m pulling for you.”

Well, I have stayed at it. I’ve stayed at it for 18 years and I hope that old No. 19 is up there with his flat top and maybe his black high tops on and I hope he knows that I have stayed at it and maybe he’s even a little proud of me.

There is just something about 18 years. Eighteen is a good number and today I retire from pro football.

I want to thank the people of New Orleans and south Louisiana. New Orleans is my hometown and of course they support their own team, the Saints, but they also support their own and that city and state have backed me from the start.

Almost 19 years ago to the day, I announced my decision to forgo the draft and stay at the University of Tennessee for my senior year. It was one of the smartest decisions I’ve ever made. I cherished my time in Knoxville, especially my senior year. And I want Vols fans everywhere to know the unique role that you’ve played in my life.

Thank you to the Indianapolis Colts organization and all the fans across this country. You can’t fathom how much I enjoyed my 14 years there or the warmth that my family feels for you. I’d be wrong not to mention Jim Irsay, Bill Polian, some great coaches, support staff and a host of wonderful Colts teammates, many of whom will be lifelong friends.

When I was drafted by the Colts, Indianapolis was a basketball and a car racing town but it didn’t take long for the Colts to convert the city and state of Indiana into football evangelists.

We ended my rookie season 3-13 and in the process I set the NFL rookie record for interceptions, a record that I still hold today. Every year I pull for a rookie quarterback to break that record. Andrew Luck, Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning, Cam Newton. I still kid Eli that he would have broken it if he would have started all 16 games.

In the beginning of my time in Indy, the team’s struggles were agonizing. My grandfather would call me weekly to ask if his favorite announcers John Madden and Pat Summerall would be broadcasting our game. "Paw Paw,” I’d say, “we’re only 2-8 right now. We’re playing the 3-7 Bengals. Madden and Summerall don’t broadcast those kinds of games.”

Fast-forward to my second year when we had gotten things going a little bit. We were playing the Dallas Cowboys and Troy Aikman and Emmitt Smith, Michael Irvin and Deion Sanders. I called Paw Paw: “Guess what, Madden and Summerall are broadcasting the game.” He said, “I can’t believe it.”

He was elated and he was very proud and we beat the Cowboys that week and we let the world know that the Colts had arrived. Make no mistake about it, we were coming and we went on to do some phenomenal things like winning at least 12 games seven years in a row and of course winning Super Bowl XLI. And I was truly honored and proud to be a part of it.

There’s a saying that goes, treat a man as he is and he will remain as he is. Treat a man as he could be and he will become what he should be.

When I visited Denver four years ago, if John Elway had sat me down and said, “Peyton, here’s what we’re going to do. We’re going to win over 50 games, win four straight division championships, lose only three division games in four years and none will be on the road, we’ll beat the Patriots in two championship games and you’re going to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, another MVP, your offense will set single-season passing records, you’ll break a couple more all-time records, and we’ll go to a couple of Super Bowls.” I think I would have taken that deal.

John, you did tell me that, didn’t you?

Grateful is the word that comes to my mind when thinking of the Denver Broncos. I want to thank Pat Bowlen and his family, Joe Ellis, John Elway, John Fox, Gary Kubiak and their staffs and all the support people in this great organization.

To all of my Denver teammates, thank you for what you’ve done for this old quarterback. And of course my gratitude to the Broncos fans everywhere.

Over my NFL career, I’ve had five head coaches who have helped me become better at my craft and have helped me become a better human being: Jim Mora, Tony Dungy, Jim Caldwell, John Fox, Gary Kubiak.

While I’ve obviously changed teams, I’ve had the same football representation for almost two decades. I owe Tom Condon many thanks. He has represented me with class at every juncture and he’ll always be a great friend.

I want to thank a tremendous group of friends who have supported my football career and been at my side at games from high school to Tennessee, Indy and through that incredible Broncos’ Super Bowl win last month. You know who you are and what you mean to me.

There is no way to measure or properly express what a family like mine can mean. Mom, Dad, Cooper, Eli, extended family, you are the best. Ashley, your support is as potent a motivator as any man can have.

Ashley's and my kids, Marshall and Mosley, have only been around for a couple of years but they have changed my life forever. A week before the Super Bowl our daughter Mosley asked me, “Daddy, is this the last game?”

“Yes, Mosley, it’s the last game of the season.”

“I sure do want you to win that trophy.”

“I do, too, Mosley. And that’s what we’re going to try to do.”

Then she asked, “Daddy, is this the last game ever?” And that’s just when I shook my head in amazement because I was thinking, “Mort and Adam Schefter had gotten to my 5-year-old daughter to cultivate a new source.”

When someone thoroughly exhausts an experience they can’t help but revere it. I revere football. I love the game. So you don’t have to wonder if I’ll miss it. Absolutely. Absolutely I will. Our children are small now, but as they grow up, we’re going to teach them to enjoy the little things in life because one day they will look back and discover that those really were the big things.

So here are the seemingly little things that when I look into my rearview mirror, have grown much bigger.

I’m going to miss a steak dinner at St. Elmo's in Indianapolis after a win. My battles with players named Lynch, Lewis, Thomas, Bruschi, Fletcher, Dawkins, Seau, Urlacher, Polamalu, Harrison, Woodson and Reed. And with coaches like Fisher, Ryan, Belichick, Kiffin, Phillips, Rivera, LeBeau, Crennel, Capers, Lewis, the late Jim Johnson, and so many more. I always felt like I was playing against that middle linebacker or that safety or that defensive coach.

I’ll miss figuring out blitzes with Jeff Saturday. Reggie sitting on top of the bench next to me. Perfecting a fake handoff to Edgerrin James. I’ll miss Demaryius Thomas telling me that he loved me and thanking me for coming to Denver after every touchdown I threw to him.

I’ll miss putting in a play with Tom Moore and Adam Gase that ends in a touchdown on Sunday. On Fridays I’ll miss picking out the game balls with my equipment guys. Talking football with the broadcast crews and afterwards I’ll miss recapping the game with my dad. And checking to see if the Giants won and calling Eli as we’re both on our team buses.

I’ll miss that handshake with Tom Brady and I’ll miss the plane rides after a big win with 53 teammates standing in the aisles laughing and celebrating during the whole flight. I’ll miss playing in front of so many great fans both at home and on the road. I’ll even miss the Patriots fans in Foxborough, and they should miss me because they sure did get a lot of wins off of me.

And this is important, football fans everywhere need to know how much they mean to me over the years. Fans, you’re at the core of what makes this game remarkable. I’ve received more letters from you than I can count. Fan letters that have touched me, made me think, laugh and moved me to act.

I’ve learned a lot through my mistakes, stumbles and losses in football. I’ve also learned this game is a mighty platform that has given me a voice that can echo well beyond the game. Football has taught me not to be led by obstructions and setbacks but instead to be led by dreams. Due to some good genes, I’m smart enough to know that those lessons can enrich who I am and where I go from here.

I’m totally convinced that the end of my football career is just the beginning of something I haven’t even discovered yet. Life is not shrinking for me, it’s morphing into a whole new world of possibilities.

Pundits will speculate that my effort and drive over the past 18 years were about mastery and working to master every aspect of the NFL game. Well, don’t believe them. Because every moment, every drop of sweat, every bleary-eyed night of preparation, every note I took and every frame of film I watched was about one thing, reverence for this game.

When I look back on my NFL career, I’ll know without a doubt that I gave everything I had to help my teams walk away with a win. There were other players who were more talented but there was no one could out-prepare me and because of that I have no regrets.

There’s a scripture reading, 2 Timothy 4:7: I have fought the good fight and I have finished the race. I have kept the faith.

Well, I’ve fought a good fight. I’ve finished my football race and after 18 years, it’s time. God bless all of you and God bless football."

Where Could Peyton Manning Go?

Cross-off-the-List Pt. 1: New England, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Indianapolis, Kansas City, Washington, Green Bay, Minnesota, Carolina, Arizona, Seattle

These are the teams that are already pretty good (and I'm counting a Colts team led by a health Andrew Luck in that group), with a proven QB that is either a veteran, or someone under contract who performed well last year and is still young (Bridgewater, Cousins). None of these teams have a need at QB, and all can somewhat think to themselves as Super Bowl contenders.


Cross-off-the-List Pt. 2: Baltimore, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland, San Diego, Dallas, New York (n), Philadelphia, Chicago, Detroit, Atlanta, New Orleans, Tampa Bay

These are teams that are not as good, but have entrenched QBs. Some are young potential franchise QBs (Mariota, Carr, Winston, Bortles), some are older but are recently re-signed and have full commitment as their teams starting QB (Flacco, Rivers, Romo, Manning, Ryan, Brees), and some are situations that aren't perfect, but the starter is pretty much known and Manning, at this stage, provides no real improvement opportunity (Bradford, Cutler, Stafford)


Tier 1: The Long Shots:

Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns

Finding any good situation for Peyton is tough. The last time he went through this, he could make a mediocre offense great - he pretty much did that at Denver. Now, he needs to find a team that is good enough outside the QB position to still challenge for 8-8. The Bills are a potential option given their roster outside of QB, but it seems Rex Ryan is heavily invested in Tyrod Taylor. The only reason I even have the Bills here because Rex Ryan is slightly insane, and he loves Peyton. He's lost crushing games to him in the past, even beaten him a few times. I think he would love to coach Peyton. The Browns are essentially the opposite. They have a need. They have no QB, and even if they draft someone at #2 overall, they can make that guy sit a year. If this was a real draft, they would definitely take Peyton. I don't know if Peyton would take them. He can't go to a team that is 2-3 years away. The Browns are simply not good enough for 2016 Peyton Manning.


Tier 2: The Under-the-radar Candidates:

Miami Dolphins, New York Jets

The AFC East has been looking for a QB who could consistently challenge Tom Brady and Co. in New England for a good decade now. The closest anyone has come is the Jets with Pennington, but since he left it is either the Jets with Sanchez or the Dolphins with Tannehill. Think of how depressing that is. The Jets are one of the teams who can argue that if you give every NFL team the same exact QB performance, the rest of their roster is good enough to win. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a good season, but he's an unrestricted free agent who could find a home elsewhere. Manning may not like the idea of playing in the same city as his brother, not to mention the same division as Tom Brady and the Patriots. That said, the fit is definitely there, with a potentially dominant defense, good targets on the outside, and a decent o-line. They are a team that could replicate the 2015 Broncos.


Tier 3: The Wild Card:

San Francisco 49ers

Who knows what Chip Kelly is ever thinking. In reality, the fit makes no sense - there is no threat to run for Peyton, and it is hard to envision him playing fast. But then again, just two years ago, in 2013 season, the Broncos score-adjusted pace was faster than the Eagles in Chip Kelly's best year. Peyton Manning perfected the no-huddle in the NFL. The fit may make more sense than you think.


Tier 4: The Real Wild Card:

Denver Broncos

In a weird way, this is the easiest option to envision. Now that the Broncos have put the franchise tag on Von Miller, Brock Osweiler is set to become a Free Agent next week. The Broncos will probably retain him, but there is a chance someone swoops in and gives Osweiler, fresh of a 5-2 run against some good teams for the eventual Super Bowl Champion, an offer he can't refuse. If that happens, the Broncos, who know they probably just need competent QB play to be a 10+ win team, may just go right back to Peyton for Round 5. If you remove Osweiler, there's no real incumbent, and the Broncos could draft someone they like at #32 and ride Peyton for a year or two. I would wager if Osweiler signs elsewhere, they become the favorite.


Tier 5: The Co-Favorites

St. Louis Rams, Houston Texans

The Rams are the only team to even reportedly show interest in a reduced Peyton. No other team has even shown the slightest inkling - though I have to imagine multiple are at least investigating privately. For the Rams, though, they have some of the advantages the Broncos gave. They have a defense that is potentially great, including a Von-Miller type in Aaron Donald - different position, but similar talent level. With Todd Gurley they have a running game. The receivers are odd, but maybe a smart QB like Peyton could make them work better. Finally, Houston is to this Manning search to what Arizona was last time - the place I want him to go. The Texans have a good defense, with another Von Miller-level player in Watt. They have a dominant receiver in Nuke Hopkins. They have a seemingly good coaching staff and a good o-line. It also gives Peyton just the perfect set-up, getting to play the Patriots one last time, getting a home-and-home against the Colts, and finally getting a chance to play Denver, which I think he is stilled sligthly miffed with.

The Top-20 QBs: #15 - Dan Fouts

#15 - Dan Fouts

Dan Fouts was the first futuristic QB. He was the first one to routinely throw for 4,000 yards. He was the first one who led an offense that resembled what we would see today. Dan Fouts, in a way, was way ahead of his time - along with his legendary, visionary coach in Don Coryell. In many ways, Dan Fouts is the QB people think Jim Kelly was. Kelly ran the K-Gun offense, another futuristic offense with the no-huddle that scored oodles of points and gained more yards, but Kelly had more in common with the dead-ball era QBs than he did with Fouts. Dan Fouts was one of a kind.

Dan Fouts threw deep, that much we all know. He had years with Y/A numbers north of 8.0, great numbers for that time. But that belies his accuracy, often a QB with a completion percentage around 60%. These are not normal numbers for those days. The normal QB in those days either met Fouts's Y/A number, or met the completion number. No one did both. Fouts did.

Dan Fouts was more voluminous than any QB who came before him, and most that came after until Dan Marino came about. As much as we like to think of Marino's 1984 season being from a different planet, so was what Fouts did in 1980-1982. In 1982, he threw for 320 yards per game, basically matching what Marino would do two seasons later - the 9-game season hurt his overall stats. Dan Fouts was at his best in those years, but he was failed by the same issues that have failed so many great 'stats' QBs since.

In a weird way, Dan Fouts is the best example of how not winning a Super Bowl, and being clearly not one of teh Top-5 QBs of all time actually helps his standing. Do we ever hear about Fouts not winning in the playoffs? Or how Fouts was not clutch? No, instead we hear about his defense, or the cold, or other factors ruined him. We appreciate Fouts for what he was: a player way before his time.

We don't denigrate Dan for not winning a Super Bowl, nor even reaching one. We don't fault him for being the initial high-profile 'stat' maven that failed once the weather got cold and the defenses he faced got tougher. Almost hilariously, we almost credit Fouts for losing 'The Freezer Bowl' because it was so cold. Instead of saying Fouts and the Air Coryell offense went underground in the cold, we say 'man, isn't in unfortunate they had to play in the cold?!'

And this isn't to take anything away from Fouts. He represents how media should view QBs, should view athletes. Dan Fouts is a legendary player, one that flew easily into the Hall of Fame. He will be forever remembered as the first QB to make breaking the 4,000 yard barrier routine. He started the modern offense in reality. He also never won a Super Bowl, but who really cares about that? Sadly, often times too many do. Fouts escaped that criticism, Fouts escaped it all. I'm not sure why, but I'm just glad someone did.

Dan Fouts really showed that back in the day, the NFL world saw the value of a QB who threw deep, threw accurately, and put up video game numbers. They saw this as something new, something different, something out of another world. What they didn't see was a QB who couldn't handle the pressure - people viewed beyond the lazy tropes and small flaws to see an all-time great play like he did.

The World Overreacts to Steph Curry

On Saturday Night, we got our latest exhibit of what has become an accepted fact: Steph Curry has solved shooting. He is, by orders of magnitude at this point, the best shooter in the history of the NBA. No one has come close to shooting 3’s at his volume, and few that can even compare can shoot at his efficiency rate. The scatter plot of the best shooters basically looks like this:

Note, this is not the actual chart, but it would look somewhat similar. Curry has a very good percentage, but does that across an in-human amount of shots. The people that have a higher percentage probably shoot threes generally when they are open, off a pass, and from near the arc. Curry does this too, but also shoots ridiculous shots from 30+ feet, off the dribble, and while being closely guarded. If anyone else shoots this, they will a) most likely miss, and b) get chided for shooting a terrible, low percentage shot. With Curry there are no low-percentage shots.

Of course, Curry solving shooting has had some amazing effects for the game. The Warriors have, similarly, solved modern offense. They are an unbeatable machine. The league as a whole is shooting more threes, but that means they are doing what I described above: creating offense for threes, employing better ball movement, and eschewing long two’s to step a few feet back. The league increasing its utilization of threes is the real reason why the NBA should explore moving the line. Not because of Curry.

Sports should never change because one player is so much better at one thing than anyone else. Not that it hasn’t happened. Golf changed because Tiger Woods was just better and longer than anyone in 2000-01 – courses got bigger and tougher. There are more apt examples too:

• The NHL putting in place the trapezoid to restrict the goalie’s ability to handle the puck was pretty much directly instituted as a rule because of Martin Brodeur’s ability to handle the puck and become essentially a half extra defenseman

This happened many years ago. There were a few other goalies cited (Marty Turco was another big one), but it really was aimed at Brodeur. The issue with the current situation is while the trapezoid took away from the value of Marty Brodeur – though ever so slightly, he was basically just as good after – it was a small percentage of plays and didn’t provide that much value. What Curry has mastered better than anyone ever is the single most valuable play in an NBA game.

The NBA is at an interesting time, and if hating on Curry gets people to peel the onion back on the overall issues with threes more, than I am fine with it. Just know that most of the suggestions, like moving the line back, will make Curry MORE valuable, as he is one of the few people who can consistently hit from 25-28 feet as well. Loads of players can come close to matching Curry’s effectiveness just beyond the line, but as we step further back Curry becomes even more of an outlier.

I don’t know what the solution is really. I have heard a couple things tossed around that I like:

1. Get rid of the corner three by making the arc a real arc and removing the corner three all together
2. Let NBA teams pick the distance at their home arena, assuming some basic ground rules are in play, like a set range of distances, and a normal arc or curve – no random squiggly line

Personally, I like suggestion #2 the most. I like when teams can personalize their stadium to create an inherent advantage. Obviously, baseball is the best at this as the stadiums are by design unique – and quirks and weather conditions play an active role in roster construction. In soccer there are a few different pitch size options. Hockey rinks can play around with temperatures and humidity to create a faster or slower surface. In basketball there is no real customization, and it would definitely be interesting to see how each team addresses the question of where to place the line.

Even #1 has its merits. The corner three, checking in at just 22 feet, is ridiculous. It is barely longer than a normal 2-point shot, it is the easiest for players to hit. There is no way it should be worth 50% more than a normal 2-pointer. I am in favor of making the arc a real parabola and essentially having it meet the sideline around level with the lower blocks, and for all intents and purposes making the corner three just a 2-point shot.

What this will really do is make the game more variable and differentiate teams further. Right now, basically every team is trying to recreate the Warriors – be able to go small and have 4-5 shooters on the court at any time (and conversely, 4-5 people who can guard opposing shooters). It makes sense, too, because of the mathematics of the game. Basically, a team has to hit ~35% from three to make it the same as shooting 50% from two. This is not a high bar anymore, which has forced all teams to basically try to do that. The game is exciting, no doubt, but lost in the three-and-D madness has been the depreciation of the post-game, the dunk and the physicality that was actually fun back in the day.

There is a happy medium somewhere, and it realistically has to come by altering the court. Players are not going to get any worse at shooting threes, if anything they will just continue to get better to the point that someone, someday, is going to match Stephen Curry’s exploits. The NBA has to do something before the league becomes essentially a glorified three-point-contest. If it is a small but loud negative reaction to Curry’s dominance that forces change, then so be it. 

Let’s just know that when the NBA takes the easy way out and just pushes the line back to 25 feet, Curry will still be awesome, will still lead the league in threes, the Warriors may still be the best team. But at least teams could then fight them on their own terms instead of having to play the way the Warriors do, but just without the best ever at doing it.

The NFC Off-Season Checklist: 16 Steps to Success for the NFC South and West

NFC South

Carolina

1.) Get rid of Charles Johnson and draft up front:

It is clear after three straight years with three different iterations of corners and safeties brought the Panthers three straight division titles, that they can afford to be lax on the secondary. I would still lock up Josh Norma (at least tag him), but get rid of Charles Johnson and invest in youth on the d-line. That is the hidden strength, and while Mario Addison and Kony Ealy have shown promise, the Panthers have relied on a rotation since their two bookends from 2013 (Hardy and Johnson) crashed and burned. They need to start re-developing that rotation.

2.) Find a new possession receiver:

The Panthers have done an incredible job of manufacturing offense from slightly above average collection of offensive talent. They have two stars in Newton and Olsen, but then a bunch of #3 and #2 types at WR. With Benjamin back, a trio of Benjamin, Ginn and Funchess gives them some versatility, but they should look to make one into their Anquan Boldin, or Hines Ward, a possession receiver who can dominate the 5-15 yard region. They sorely need this as teams will continue to try to match Denver's strategy of press coverage knowing the Panthers really only like to throw deep.


Atlanta

1.) Find Matt Ryan a TE:

Three years ago, when the Falcons came one Harry Douglas slip away from a Super Bowl appearance, the Falcons had a bevy of receiving options. Julio Jones was and still as a mega-star, but they had a reliable #2 in Roddy White, a decent #3 in Douglas, and dependable TE in Gonzalez. They can fill the Douglas role fine - but any team can do that. They have yet to find a TE who can replicated even late-stage career Gonzalez. Matt Ryan is still a good QB, but he's now dealt with two years where there is no set alternative to Julio Jones. Replacing Roddy White is not easy. Replacing late-stage Gonzalez should be much easier, and honestly should have happened by now.

2.) Beef up the d-line at the expense of the linebackers:

The Falcons have in the Mike Smith and onwards era focused on Linebackers a little too heavily. Some of them have worked out, but in both Mike Smith's defense, and definitely in Dan Quinn's, and to be honest in most defense, the linebackers are just not that important. The Falcons sorely need more production from a d-line that hasn't crossed 35 sacks in 2010. They have draft capital and a lot of youth everywhere else; they need to do what Seattle did in rebuilding that d-line.


New Orleans

1.) Explore letting go of Drew Brees:

This has no real shot of happening (but then again, most likely neither does teh Texans kicking the tires with Peyton), but the Saints should really explore this. His cap number is ridiculous, any creative accounting will just stave off cap hell to a year where Brees wouldn't even be that good. The Saints have now gone 7-9, 11-5, 7-9, 7-9 in the last four years. They can make excuses for the first year as that was the year without Payton, but the 11-5 was, hilariously, driven by Rob Ryan's defense. The team is aging and overpaid. Let Brees go, just look at the potential to maybe fall back to 4-12 for a year. They've built up enough cache in that community to survive 1-3 bad Brees-less years.

2.)


Tampa Bay

1.) Get a slot receiver for Winston:

The Buccaneers got a better rookie season from Winston than maybe even they expected. He didn't have a great start, but Winston had a great middle-half of the season. He has two good receivers to throw to in Evans and Jackson, but those two are similarly talented with medium and deep throws. They really don't have an effective short passing game, something all young QBs need to ease the pressure and introduce easier throws in the offense. Ever since college Winston had focused, and to a large part succeeded, on longer and tougher throws. Let's make things easier for him, why don't we?

2.) Build up the d-line through the draft:

The Buccaneers have tried to find solutions to put along-side Gerald McCoy in free agency. Most of those have not worked. The draft is their real opportunity to get some edge talent. They have skill players in the back-seven of the defense, but the front has been lacking any pass rush for years. They are higher-wage players, but on rookie contracts this should not be an issue - given that the people they need to pay are at lower-wage positions (Lavonte David, for instance).

NFC West

Arizona

1.) Settle on a receiving core:

Larry Fitzgerald had an amazing season this past year. He quietly had a career high in catches, and did great work out of the slot. While it seems Slot + Palmer + Arians = Success for Fitz, chances are he is not repeating those numbers. The Cardinals have a ton of talent at WR in Floyd, Brown, Nelson, but it would be good if they can be typecasted more. That is not always a positive for teams, but someone should be groomed to take over the Fitzgerald role if Fitz falls off to where he was in 2013-14.

2.) Draft some pass rushers:

The Cardinals are a year or two away from having to pay a lot of money to players, be it Patrick Peterson or Deone Buchanon, or Tyran Mathieu, on that defense. They sorely need pass rush, and while Marcus Golden might be an intriguing prospect, any gains in his game will likely be off-set by continued depreciation of Freeney's contribution. This isn't news, and we can argue that in Bettchner's defense, edge rushers aren't as important, but that is even more reason to pound that position through the draft, where there are lottery tickets at low value available.


Seattle

1.) Change up the way you view the O-Line:

The Seahawks have already said they are NOT going to change the way they view developing the o-line, but they really should at this point. The Seahawks have often tried to convert players over to that position, and even actively traded away a center-piece in that line in the Jimmy Graham deal. For the first half of 2015, that was a disaster. Even during the incredible 2nd half by Russell Wilson, the problems still occurred, with in three of their last four games, the Seahawks lost two and came a field goal away from all three, and the offense was shut down for long stretches in all of them. The o-line needs to be viewed as it should, not some overvalued area where converting college TEs and back-ups can be a viable strategy.

2.)


St. Louis

1.) Figure out the path forward on defense and who needs to be there:

The Rams have already started this by getting rid of Chris Long and James Laurinitus. They have about $60 MM in cap room right now, a staggering amount. However, a lot of that gap is going to go the their youth on defense, whether it is Michael Brockers, Aaron Donald (who is going to get all the money), Janoris Jenkins, Alec Ogletree, LaMarcus Joiner. The Rams have the ability to be a great defense for a long time, but it will take making the right decisions on who to keep. Donald is obvious, but some of these guys will age or get hurt, or not be as good in the future. These are tough decisions, but they are better decisions to make than not having them in the first place.

2.) Don't kick the tires on Peyton Manning:

The Rams have no #1 receiver, they have an average o-line, they have no good TE. The Manning that was in Denver for 2012-(1st half of)2014 would have worked with those conditions. The 2016 Peyton Manning cannot. Given their move to LA, there may be some internal and external pressure to go get a big name at QB to sell for the fans, and the perennially 7-9 Rams may think they are a QB away from 11-5 (not exactly a wrong line of thinking), but that QB is not Manning at this stage. I don't know who it is, actually.


San Francisco

1.) Give Colin Kaepernick a Year:

It seems like this is not going to happen as Kaepernick's people have already asked for him to be traded. However, I don't know why Kelly is not at least giving him a chance. Blaine Gabbert is not a better option. Kaepernick at least showed he can be competent. What allowed Kaepernick to be so dangerous at his peak in the Harbaugh era was his athleticism and his ability to make quick decisions on simple reads. You can't have too complex a passing game. Well, the Kelly passing game is really simple if you can play fast. It would work better with a mobile QB. All these things Kaepernick has. Unless they are going to kick the tires with RGIII, I don't see any better wild-card alternative to Kaepernick.

2.) 

8 Changes I Would Make to the NFL to Make It Better

8.) Move back the free-contact zone for the secondary to 8 yards

I have a few suggestions that relate to essentially allowing secondary players to play more freely, and essentially allow the NFL to reverse course from an offensive environment to a point where pretty much all QBs that play 16 games will throw for 4,000 yards and 10+ of them will have thirty TDs. It is getting outrageous. Now, we can point to the Broncos and Panthers as evidence defense still matters, but what that really shows is how differently the playoffs are refereed. The 5-yard rule is pretty loosely called, and I see the inherent problems in making referees do math to know where the 8-yard zone ends, but I do think this will help curtail passing games a bit. Right now there are just so many players who run wide open because of fear on the defensive side. That needs to change, and this is the first way of fixing the issue and swinging the pendulum league-wide closer to even.


7.) Go to the Tennis System for challenges - each coach gets two wrong challenges per game

I have no idea why the Coaches Challenge system did the half-measure of allowing teams to get a 3rd challenge if they get the first two right. Go all the way, and make it so that a successful challenge doesn't count as a wrong challenge. This cropped up in the Super Bowl, where Ron Rivera challenged the obviously wrong call to have Peyton Manning not down by contact. Since he had already wrongly challenged the Cotchery catch he was done. There is no real reason apart from the NFL not wanting games to go on, but this would at most add 3-5 minutes more. The other is the NFL doesn't want to highlight errors by referees. That is not a good enough reason. Make this easy, obvious move that will allow games to remove a small part of the influence of the referees.


6.) Go to an 18-Week, 2-Byes, schedule, and start a week later

The NFL is going to extend the schedule, but the largest driver of this is grow the value of TV contracts. I don't actually believes teams are looking at this as a way to build in-stadium revenue, especially when one of the contingency plans is to have the 17th game at a neutral site. So my suggestion will give the NFL that 18th week to sell to networks while also giving a second bye to each team which will allow the NFL to still show this as not an affront to player safety. Also, I just love the 16 games the NFL plays. 16 is a square number, it is on the list of powers of 2. It is a great amount of games. Finally, the world of the the US wants the day after the Super Bowl to be a Holiday. Easy way to do that would be to end the season two weeks later, which on most years would correlate with President's Day (this year would be an exception). If they start a week late, give College Football another week in the spotlight, and add a week to the season, we get to finish on President's Day Weekend.


5.) Use GPS for 1st downs instead of the Chain Gang

There is a lot of talk around using GPS technology at the goal line, much the way soccer has begun to do so. That is an obvious and easy fix. I want them to take it a step further. Allow it to be used throughout the game, specifically to measure first downs. The chain gang is one of the most ridiculous aspects of football. First there are so many ways things can go wrong; my biggest gripe is that if both ends are not prefectly aligned longitudinally, the length becomes something other than 10 yards. Also, it takes forever. Using GPS technology allows us to quickly measure if a team has gotten a first down, and also quickly lets coaches know how far away they are. The investment can't be too much either and would shave a lot of minutes off of a game.


4.) Stop making Illegal Contract an automatic first down, unless the foul occurs beyond the line to gain

This is one of my biggest gripes, when an illegal contact penalty gives a team a 1st down on 3rd and 17 when the QB is under pressure. Any time a team gets a cheap first down it is aggressively annoying. I understand why these penalties are given automatic first down status, but if it was a play where even the lack of the penalty would result in a 10-yard completion still short of the line to gain, I don't see why the team should be rewarded with a first down on a bad throw. Give them the five yards, let them re-do the play and get another try, but make the team actually achieve the line to gain, either by the ball in actual play, or by getting held or impeded past it.


3.) Stop counting kneels and spikes as actual plays

This is just a personal gripe. It doesn't hurt the actual game at all, but it is ridiculous for people who like to look at stats and see them as an actual description of the game. Why does the QB get an official incompletion for a spike? Why does the QB get a rushing attempt and negative yard for a kneel. The Kneel-Down actually bugs me more, because so many times I'll hear that team X ran for Y yards on Z carries, when Y is artificially low and Z artificially high. So many times the kneels, especially when it is an extended kneel with the intent on running more clock, change that math from a good rushing day to a bad one. The spikes don't hurt as much, but they are pointless incompletions. I don't think any actual contractual terms or bonuses are due based on completion percentage, but even if not I can't imagine QBs actually like either of these things.


2.) Start calling offensive holding to the same level the NFL calls defensive holding/IC/PI
My final change aimed at evening the playing field between offense and defense is having referees actually call offensive holding, at least at the level commensurate with defensive contact and holding. So many times rushers are so obviously held and choked and tackled without any call. This is really glaring in the playoffs, but there are noticeable examples of plays being wrongly extended. The referees get some calls right, but there seems to be no real governance on the lack of offensive holding being called. This will result in more 10-yard penalties, but I think it fair for a lost sack or incompletion. Penalties are already unfairly weighted to offense - think about all the penalties that result in automatic first downs compared to the scant few that are loss of downs on offense. This is the biggest way to tip the scales back.


1.) Move the AFC and NFC Championship Games to different days


This would actually be a big change, and I'm not sure how to really do it other than hold one of them on Monday Night, but I do think there is an opportunity to have the AFC Championship and NFC Championship get their own days.

**Quick sidebar: I once interviewed for an internshp with the NFL. One of the questions they asked was one way you would improve the NFL as a business. This was my idea**

There are so many advantages. First, the networks would love it. More eyeballs, more opportunity to turn the Title Games into big events. They can have halftime games, longer pre and post-game shows. They can turn these into big days. The networks get exclusive time each year to pull out the stops, and both CBS and FOX would get this each year. For the teams, it probably makes more sense to have one on Sunday and one on Monday, giving two teams more time to prepare, and with the two weeks off there is no large disadvantage for the winning team on the Monday game. The NBA has done a great job of segmenting the Conference Finals, and the NCAA has done it with turning Final Four games and the Football Playoffs into events. The NFC and AFC games get tied together too much both being on the same day. There is so much to gain by spacing them apart.

The NFC Off-Season Checklins: 16 Stesp to Success for the NFC East and North

NFC East

Washington

1.) Franchise Kirk Cousins

The two camps are already publicizing how far apart they are. I really think it makes sense for the Redskins to tag him. Cousins will anyway want money at the annual value of the tag anyway. If they tag Cousins, and push the final decision another year out, the Redskins will first get 16 more data points to better evaluate Cousins, a player who was as erratic in the first 20 starts of his career as he was brilliant in the last 10. Also, he can have a good season, prove himself as a 'franchise' QB and not play as well as he did to end the 2015 season, which could in a way give the Redskins more leverage to get a deal closer to their end of the wage spectrum.

2.) Shift focus on defense to the draft

Scott McLoughan did an excellent job building some stability in the Redskins organization model. On the defensive side, he took an odd approach for someone who was so committed to building up a defense through the draft in both San Francisco and Seattle. The Redskins drafted just one guy on defense in the first four rounds. Instead, he brought in mid-tier FAs on short deals, a smart approach but not a lasting one. The defense should be the focus in 2016 draft, building some cornerstones around the few ones already there like Bresahued Breeland and Preston Smith.


Philadelphia Eagles

1.) Move on from Bradford

Sam Bradford is an incredibly lucky guy, making millions upon millions without ever actually being that good. He can continue his long con on the rest of the NFL in another location. Bradford will undoubtedly be expensive, and what the Eagles need in their QB is quick decision making and accuracy, two traits one doesn't quickly associate with Bradford. They can go bargain-basement for a bit or draft a future QB, but Bradford is not necessary for their future plans.

2.) Believe in the Wide-9, and trust Schwartz is not Juan Castillo

The Wide-9 is back, baby! The Eagles disastrous 2012 season was partially blamed on then-coordinator Juan Castillo's use of the Wide-9 tactic. Castillo himself has ties to the man who is coming in to run the Eagles defense in Jim Schwatz, who used that defense in Detroit. Juan Castillo got a bad rap, but the players, and even the coach, are more suited to the defense now than it used to be. Guys like Fletcher Cox were actually drafted to play in this defense, not the 3-4 the Eagles ran under Kelly. Any scheme change will take a bit of time, but issues they have will be more due to timing rather than any inherent problem with the system.


New York Giants

1.) Use every avenue to improve the pass rush

The only thing separating the Giants from being the best team in the division, apart from late-game coaching and time management, is their lack of pass rushers. Jason Pierre-Paul wasn't horrible given his conditions, but it is hard to imagine him getting better. The Giants defense wasn't pitiful because Steve Spagnuolo is a good coach - but much like the Colts, a defenses upside is limited without a pass rush. The Giants need to draft them, but given Manning's age, it is probably time to just go after a few in free agency. Maybe it is Malik Jackson or other prime free agent options, but the Giants need to pump that area with as much talent as possible.

2.) Focus on what the biggest strengths are on offense

Ben McAdoo will likely not have the long leash a normal new coach has given he still has ties to the last two disappointing years of the Coughlin regime. He needs to focus on what the Giants do well and maximize that. Eli Manning has performed well in that offense. That is fine. The running game has not and it won't. Don't waste more snaps on players that haven't worked at running back and use Shane Vereen, who was his normal dynamic self, as more than just a 3rd down back. Develop a 2nd receiver that has chemistry with Eli Manning over just talent like Reuben Randle. OBJ and Manning are not going anywhere, but they need to surround those two with the most snaps by the best players possible.


Dallas Cowboys

1.) Start developing alternatives to Jason Witten

The future hall of famer in Witten is still very good. Despite all the issues at QB, eh still had 77 receptions. The issue though is those receptions are just not as effective as they used to be. He had a career low 9.3 y/r, and had just 3 TDs. Witten is still a reasonably good player, but there is a clear expiration date approaching and the backup options are just not that appealing. James Hanna and Gavin Escobar combined for just 17 catches. This is an offense that has never not had a good TE, and they need to be proactive with a Witten replacement.

2.) Set-up the roster building plan to maximize the last few years for Romo

Tony Romo will be 36 on opening day. Even in this age where Manning and Brady wer both excellent through their 38 seasons, that doesn't point to Romo having a lot of time left. His outlook becomes worse when you consider his long history of back and shoulder issues. The Cowboys should start doing what Denver did; try to build out that defense by spending in free agency. Romo will make the offense work. The defense gets a boost from scheme and coaching, but better talent will make that scheme and coaching work even better. There's time to pay the piper when Romo is gone and it takes 3-4 years to identify the next QB.

NFC North

Minnesota Vikings

1.) Get Teddy some real weapons early in the draft

Teddy Bridgewater is the starting QB for a division winning team. A lot of the analytic community loved Bridgewater out of college and gave him a lot of rope in the start to his NFL career. And while he, again, started all 16 games for a division winner, his spotty play was a real disappointment in 2015. He struggled to get 200 yards in most games. His best weapon was a 1st round pick rookie. The Vikings offensive woes, coupled with them moving back indoors, really places a focus on improving the skill positions. No more Greg Jennings or Mike Wallace signings. Go big at receiver and TE in the draft, Give Bridgewater a 3rd down slot receiver type; allow him to grow with what has shown to be slightly limited physical skills.

2.) Go into 2016 with a plan on who will stay beyond that year

The Vikings have rebuilt their defense with high-round picks and high-value free agency signings. To the credit of Rick Spielman (who had a cock-roach like ability to survive multiple 'let's blow it up' rounds in Minnesota) and the coaching staff, they've been able to succeed with most of them. Three years ago, the Vikings picked three defensive players in the first round: Anthony Barr, Shariff Floyd and Xavier Rhodes. All three will have their contract up. Add that to recent signings like Linval Joseph and extensions for Eversen Griffen and Brian Robison and there is going to be a pressure on how much of their cap they can give to defense. They have to know coming into 2016 not all can stay.


Green Bay Packers

1.) Don't lose faith in the offense, nothing radical needs to happen

Few teams have ever faced such loss of skill positions as the 2015 Packers. It is still incredible they were reduced to throwing to Jeff Janis and Jared Abbrederis in a playoff game. What is nice for the Packers is that the players who were hurt that made them resort to the J&J club are coming back. Given recent examples of players coming back from ACLs, it is safe to assume that Jordy Nelson will be fine. That should allow Randall Cobb to operate well as a #2. The Packers, even if Devante Adams is a non-factor, will be fine. And because of that, Mike McCarthy and Co. shouldn't over-think or overreact to recent criticism. As Rodgers has often said, they need to 'R-E-L-A-X'. No need to change offensive strategies, or 'establish the run', or toss playcalling duties around the room. Just do what you always did.

2.) That all said, do play in Free Agency for once

I don't think the Packers need to change anything in terms of coaching or game-planning, and that extends to the defensive side as well. However, personnel decisions can use a rethinking. It is obvious and well known how the Packers have avoided free agency like the plague, and there seems to be internal pressure being placed on Ted Thompson to stop that. I agree. It is more odd given the rare times the Packers did get involved (Charles Woodson, Julius Peppers) it worked brilliantly. The Packers should take targeted risks, particuarly at o-line or even running back. Don't wait for Eddie Lacy to not be fat. Instead just get a better player and move on.


Detroit Lions

1.) Assume Calvin is gone and try to rebuild the guy you let get away

A few years ago, the Lions were basically given an unanswerable question. They had three guys who would all need giant contracts. The QB was a lock to stay, so essentially the choice came down to Ndamukong Suh or Calvin Johnson. They picked Johnson. Suh left to Miami, and a year later, Calvin decides to retire. Assuming he is retiring, instead of trying to replace him, the Lions should try to now replace Suh. They are already closer on that side of the ball, but that is where they can focus on in the draft. Terryl Austin is a magician with d-lineman, and at this point they may as well continue to build their strength as a defense than recreate an already spotty offense.

2.) Try to keep Terryl Austin if the inevitable happens and Caldwell gets shown the door

I don't know why Terryl Austin is still just a defensive coordinator. His defenses the last three years have been the best part of the Lions. Outwardly the Lions offense still gets the publicity because it is a perfect Fantasy Football Unit, but the defense has been solid at all levels. The Lions defense retained a lot more of its value without Suh and Fairley as anyone would have expected. He has coached up a secondary that has alternated between mediocre and young and good and aging. If Caldwell gets shown the door, which is not hard to see given the already high-variance offense losing its most integral player, the Lions should think long and hard about keeping one of the best coordinators in-house as a replacement.


Chicago Bears

1.) Re-sign Alshon Jefferey at all costs





The Bears have oodles of cap space, and they need to use a decent portion of that oodle to ensure Alshon Jefferey does not skip town. Oviously, the franchise tag is in play here, but if I am Chicago I would ensure he gets signed long term. The Bears are lacking in premium young talent, with a lot of their 'successful 2015' built off of Free Agency and a more competent season from Jay Cutler. Jefferey is dynamic, and can make Cutler, a wild thrower, better. They cannot let him walk. The only concern is Jefferey's injury history, but some risks are worth taking. If they can re-sign him, and if Kevin White comes back from his red-shirt season lost to injury, the Bears will at least have one area with youth, talent and long-term commitments.

2.) Ensure Dowell Loggins keeps the successes of Adam Gase's offense but improves on the negatives

In 2015, Cutler had maybe his most measured and consistent season. Cutler has been better before, but he was rarely so calm and composed in the way he played. Adam Gase took a lot of what he and Peyton did together, with quick throws, screens and short passes, limiting Cutler's exposure to defensive pressure against a bad o-line, and also his penchant to throw interceptions in bunches. Loggins is an internal hire and has worked with / under Gase, so in theory this offense should resemble what Gase did. That is important. Cutler hasn't been given a great hand in the incredible turnover of his coaches on the offensive side since going to Chicago. He needs some consistency with Loggins.

The AFC Off-Season Checklist: 16 Steps to Success for the AFC South and West

AFC South

Houston

1.) Find secondary receiving options:

DeAndre 'Nuke' Hopkins is incredible. He has to be, though, because the rest of the receiving options are really average, if not worse. Cecil Shorts is ostensibly the #2. Nate Washington, who is somehow still in the league, is the #3. They have no real TE. The Texans somehow managed to score 300+ points despite all of this, but God forbid Nuke Hopkins gets hurt - which it isn't that hard to imagine given that they throw to him 200 times. They need to focus on this area in the draft, and maybe look at some of the FA Tight Ends.

2.) Kick the tires with Peyton Manning:

Yes, I'm serious. They're drafting late enough they probably aren't going to find a savior who can contribute in Year 1. Brian Hoyer is terrible. Manning may be as well, but there are at least some reasons why he may be decent in Houston. First he gets to be indoors in a dome. Then he gets another team with a good defense and decent running game. Finally, he gets all the Manning Classic games, a home-and-home with the Colts and trips to Foxboro and Denver.


Indianapolis

1.) Figure out the base offense:

One of my biggest gripes with the Pep Hamilton offense was he wanted to do everything, and by that I mean he wanted to go five wide on one play and power on the next. The Colts offense rarely had any flow, and they weren't great at any one thing other than Andrew Luck at his best in 2014. They have so many offensive players that Pep couldn't service them all enough, so he decided to not serve any of them enough. The amount of 3-TEs they used to play was staggering. With Andre Johnson basically gone, I want them to play one game where they go 3-1-1 all day. Just focus on your actualy best guys: Hilton, Moncrief and the guy you picked #1 last year in Dorsett.

2.) Draft a pass rusher, any pass rusher:

Given that apart from Robert Mathis's miracle 2013 season, the Colts have not been able to feature a pass rush at any point in the Pagano era. Given that, it is actually pretty incredible they've been able to be as mediocre on defense as they have. That is a credit to Pagano the coach, but scheme on defense only works to a point - witness the litany of top QBs to blitz the Colts. They need to draft a pass rusher; and not a weird project one who could potentially be the next Paul Kruger, but an actual pass rusher.


Jacksonville

1.) Fill out the offense to make it more balanced:

If you look just at the normal stats, it seems like Blake Bortles had a good season - I mean he had 33 TDs! Stats can be deceiving. The 35 passing TDs was countered with single-digit rushing TDs. It is nice Bortles showed great ability in the red zone, but that is not consistent. They need a more o-lineman and another running back to complement the inconsistent, erratic backs they have now. Don't believe the 35 TDs, Bortles still needs support and has a long way to go.

2.) Assume Dante Fowler Jr., is not the solution, make sure there's a Plan B:

The biggest issue facing the Jaguars is a lack of pass rush - that's really one of the issues facing this entire division aside from Houston. Dante Fowler Jr. can be a nice dose of youth and skill and talent into helping solve that problem. The #3 pick from last year should be fully healed from his ACL tear last year. That said, we can't completely assume he's going to be fully ready to contribute. Pass rush is a need even if Fowler is great. The Jaguars have no larger need on defense than pass rush, with or without Fowler coming back 100%.


Tennessee

1.) Don't try to do too much too quickly

The future of the Titans basicaly rests in Marcus Mariota becoming the player all thought he could. That said, let him develop naturally. There will be a lot of pressure to give him a great line or a running game, or have him become a 'pocket' passer. Just let the guy become the player he had the potential to be. I actually want to restress the running game part. Mike Mularkey has already expressed that he wants to build a smash-mouth team. Don't fall for that Mike. It really isn't needed in the modern NFL Let Mariota play, don't handcuff or restrict him, or true to over-do it with expensive FA personnel.

2.) Spend wisely on defense, short length, high value

The Titans have a ton of cap room. They will be able to shop at the luxury department, but they should take heed from what the Colts were and were not able to do with that same luxury recently. The Colts in the past four years have signed dozens of Free Agents, including some high salary players. Some have worked. Most haven't. That is not surprising given the general value from Free Agency. However, what the Colts did smartly was sign to shorter length deals. They were able to get out of them for most right at the time when they need to start spending internally. Free Agency is a team building method is not smart. Making sure you can get out of the misses, though, is incredibly smart.

AFC West

Denver

1.) Don't overpay Osweiler:

Now, what that really means in practice is don't pay him to be something he hasn't shown himself to be. They shouldn't easily let him go; certainly Osweiler showed flashes in his 7 games. He also showed some negatives, like inaccuracy and a penchant to hold the ball too long and take too many sacks. He may command premium starter money, and he probably should given his leverage; but the Broncos have built a type of team that cannot afford a QB paid more than his value much longer. It is one of the riskiest moves to move away from a starting QB, but it is also a risk to overpay one.

2.) Don't be afraid to move on from Ryan Clady:

I'm pretty sure that the Broncos are planning to do this, but it can be easy for the Broncos to buy into this line of thinking: 1 - we have a bad o-line; 2 - we have an all-pro coming back to play LT; 3 - problem solved. Ryan Clady has now missed essentially all of the 2013 and 2015 seasons. The player he was in 2014 was fine, but it was nowhere near the all-pro he was in 2009-2012. Ryan Clady can be cut rather easily and the Broncos can save a lot of money by doing so. They have to fix the o-line, but a 30-year old past star coming off two major injuries is not necessarily the answer.


Kansas City

1.) Figure out which of your defensive free agents is going to age well:

Basically, the whole entire defense of the Chiefs other than Justin Houston. This is not an exaggeration. Eric Berry, Sean Smith, Drrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Mike DeVito and Husain Abdulla are all free agents. With that many contracts coming off of the books they are going to have enough money to sign some of them, but these are all players between 27-32, generally any long-term deal at this stage is a huge risk. They really have to do a good job of deciding which of these players has enough left to warrant a deal.

2.) Try to turn the running back surplus into fixing the receivers

Jeremy Maclin turned out to be a really nice signing, finally giving the Chiefs a real #1 receiver. Of course, the Chiefs have no #2 receiver apart from some middling prospects. The Chiefs do have a spate of running backs, from the great but injured (Jamaal Charles), to the old star backup (Knile Davis), to the new guys (Charcandrik West & Spencer Ware). No team needs four viable running backs. Trades aren't really a thing, but the Chiefs could maybe try to turn two of those guys into a reasonable #2 or #3 receiver.


Oakland

1.) Don't go crazy in Free Agency; the answers are not all there and are not needed by 2016

The Raiders have geniune hope for the first time in a while. And not in the odd hope they had coming into 2011 after a freak 8-8 season in 2010. This is real hope. Derek Carr had a great season. By most statistical measures, he was a Top-10, borderline Top-5 performer in 2015. Amari Cooper is a future star. They have loads of talent and a decent o-line. The defense needs talent. The Raiders have a ton of money. But what they shouldn't do is go all-in on free agency to drive talent for 2016-17. Just build the way they have. Given Reggie McKenzie's past in Green Bay, it seems reasonable the Raiders will continue with this short-length Free Agency mindset, which is what they should do.

2.) Go heavy on defense in the draft:

This goes hand-in-hand with the 1st step, but this draft should be 80% defense. The Raiders have their QB, they have a #1 WR, they have a decent set of alternate weapons and running backs (including a very nice bounceback season from Crabtree), and the o-line is strong. The defense, after retirements, is basically Khalil Mack (the next Von Miller) and 10 other guys. They need to start pumping that area of the team with as many bodies as possible that are young. Defense, defense, defense. The Raiders need to do what the Broncos did in the draft in the Manning era.


San Diego

1.) Look again into trading Philip Rivers

The Chargers will be moving to Los Angeles (more to come on that). This is not happening this year, it may not happen next year. By the time it happens, Rivers will be at least 36. He's already regressed to the point that he can't drag the sorry team to anything past 9-7. Rivers deserves better, but for the Chargers, they should set the reset button now. I understand the push to be competitive the first year in Los Angeles, but instead of miring their way to 6-10 with Rivers, they can go a more exciting 6-10 with a young rookie QB.

2.) Just move to LA already

Like seriously, just rip the band-aid off completely.