Lounging Pass

Tuesday, July 24, 2012

NFL Top 200 for 2012: #100-51

For the third straight year, I will be counting down my personal Top 200 Players in the NFL. This ranking is completely subjective, built off of a completely subjective list of criteria, mixing recent performance (what they did in 2011 matters most, but 2009-2010 is still relevant), health, age, status and other random things that are unquantifiable. Unlike last year, I am not going through the exercise of listing all of the people that fell off of the list from 2011. First, that takes time, and second, I would rather not look back at all the hysterically wrong rankings I made a year ago. One note: this is not some trade value type column, or most valuable. For instance, Richard Sherman is ranked above Tony Romo. Would Dallas make that trade? Of course not. Is Sherman better at what he is asked to do than Romo? In my opinion he is. Anyway, let's get to #100-51

*BTW, big shout-out to Football Outsiders (FO), my favorite independent football site on the web. I used a lot of their numbers in my justifications. Mostly, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) Success Rate (how many plays a defender achieves success on), stop rate (the rate a defender makes stops), Defeats (any big play made by a defender) ypa allowed (yards per pass allowed by a defender), and more. Their stuff is great, and without them, I would never know how good Alteraun Verner is, for example. I wouldn't know a whole lot of other stuff as well*

100.) Richard Sherman (CB - SEA)

With the league's receivers getting bigger and scarier by the year, Pete Carroll's plan to employ corners that are 6'2" and above might be one of the more prescient ideas in the NFL today. Richard Sherman ranked in the top-7 in both success rate and ypa allowed. Sure, he is a rookie, but Sherman's size and speed make him one of the most intriguing young cornerbacks in the NFL.

99.) Champ Bailey (CB - DEN)

Champ Bailey continues his long, slow and sad decline from the once-high peak of a future hall of famer, to what we now call “the valuable veteran presence.” In all honesty, his charting numbers are not good, but he still has the skills to play good man defense on short and intermediate routes. The issue is Bailey can get beaten deep way more now than in his prime.

98.) Robert Mathis (OLB - IND)

Mathis’s average yards allowed on a play where he was involved was in the top-20 of all defensive players. He still had 9.5 sacks and 19 hurries playing for a team with awful coverage allowing for quick throws, as well as a team who got run on, a lot. Robert Mathis is supposedly going to move fully to an OLB position, which might actually be a better natural fit given his slender frame. Either way, he and Freeney are still the keys for the Colts defense. Although, this time, if they are both good the defense overall will only avoid being awful, nothing more.

97.) Chris Clemons (DE - SEA)

Chris Clemons late-career resurgence continued at the same pace in 2011 that it did in 2010. Clemons had 11 more sacks, with 24 hurries and 26 defeats in 2011, and once again provided the most effective source of pass-rush the Seahawks had. Clemson was better against the run in 2011, but he was used more in a situational role in 2011, so those figures might be a little skewed.

96.) Eric Winston (RT - KC)

Eric Winston was one of the pre-eminent run blocking tackles in the NFL the past two seasons paving the way time and time again for Arian Foster. Now, we will get a good indication of whether or not Houston truly is the o-line factory of this era that Denver was of the last. It will be interesting to see how Winston performs as the focus point of an o-line in KC, instead of being just one of many greats in Houston.

95.) Reggie Wayne (WR - IND)

Reggie Wayne was reportedly quite mad the Colts didn't give Curtis Painter the starting gig right out of the gate. Of course, considering how bad Painter was, that belief seems silly, but Wayne definitely played angry last season. I love Wayne more than ever for not quitting when he went from having the best QB in the world throwing to him to two JAGs. Wayne's overall numbers dropped, but he still remains a top route runner with good hands. The explosiveness is gone, but his veteran savvy will be invaluable to the early development of Mr. Andrew Luck.

94.) Charles Woodson (CB - GB)

Woodson is the best slot-corner in the NFL, given his amazing success over the past three years filling the role. The Packers need him to keep his level of play, because the rest of the secondary was a mess throughout 2011. In 2011, Woodson ranked in the top-25 in both success rate and yards per pass allowed, which is incredible for a guy his age in that defense. It will be interesting to see when he gets inducted into the HOF how much credence is given to his time in Oakland. Anyway, just a random musing about a guy who’s longevity is becoming utterly stunning.

93.) Marshal Yanda (G - BAL)

There is a reason why the Ravens are a top-10 team when running behind Marshal Yanda. That reason is that Yanda is really, really good. He will need to continue to be every bit as good as the 2^nd-team all-pro he was in 2011 with Ben Grubbs gone on the other side. Guard protection is really important in Baltimore, where Flacco has a tough time escaping rush up the middle (or any rush, really). Baltimore can be a good offense, but they will need Yanda to be great for it to happen.

92.) Demmaryius Thomas (WR - DEN)

If Demmaryius stays healthy, he can be a top-10 WR easily with Manning throwing him the ball. Peyton Manning has never had this sort of physical specimen that he can fire balls too. Sure, Thomas' route running can get better, but if you remember, Peyton had no problems with Garcon in that area (the hands were more of an issue - and Thomas rarely drops balls). If the Broncos offense is what I think it will be Dammaryius Thomas might just be one of the best receivers in this list next season.

91.) Darnell Dockett (DE - ARZ)

Darnell Dockett wasn’t the monster pass-rusher he was from 2009-2010 last season, but he still registered a team-high 23.5 hurries and was extremely active against the run, giving up just 1.1 yards against runs at him. He still makes up one of the best interior 3-4 lines in the league, and at 31 at a position that ages well, Dockett should continue to be a steady producer for 3-4 more years. Hopefully by then the Cardinals can find someone to replace him, as replacing one of the most underrated defensive players of the last 5-6 years will not be too easy.

90.) David Hawthorne (MLB - NO)

I have no idea why Pete Carroll and the Seattle conglomerate let Hawthorne go that easily. Sure, he wasn’t the best of linebackers, but he was sure-tackling, extremely durable and extremely active, taking part in 121 plays. The Saints are ironically getting a definite upgrade with Hawthorne taking the place of the as-of-now-and-hopefully-still-at-Week-One suspended Jonathan Vilma.

89.) Davin Joseph (LG - TB)

Davin Joseph had a bad year in 2011, but that may be more because of the team around him quitting. It isn’t easy to be a successful blocker when your team is in full mutiny against their coach, and the lineman around you completely embarrass themselves week-after week. Either way, with the addition of Carl Nicks, the line should get some stability, which should help Davin Joseph’s star shine once again.

88.) Geno Atkins (DT - CIN)

WalterFootball.com (another great site) once told me (or told anyone who read it) that Geno Atkins was a steal for the Bengals in the 2010 draft. I believed him then, and man was Walter right. Geno Atkins was a terror in his sophomore campaign, with 19.5 hurries and 8 sacks from the DT position, while ranking in the top-10 against the run. He’s got the upside to be the next Warren Sapp (or at least the next Kevin Williams to Ndamukong Suh’s Warren Sapp). I just hope he doesn’t have happen to him what happens to so many in Cincinnaticca.

87.) Ryan Mathews (RB - SD)

If you just look at the stats, Mathews had a hell of a season in 2011. 4.9 ypc on 222 carries with an average at best o-line. Catching 50 balls out of the 59 thrown his way. Ryan Mathews even placed #10 and #6 in DVOA and DYAR for running backs. That said, he had an odd propensity to get effectively benched randomly in games. The Chargers could easily utilize him more, and they probably should now that Mike Tolbert is gone.

86.) Trent Cole (DE - PHI)

24.5 hurries. 11 sacks. Top 10 in drawing holding flags. Great against the run. Still, he’s just the third highest ranking member of the Eagles Front-7. But that says more about the Eagles top-end talent at that dimension than it does Cole’s play. Trent Cole just put up another monster season. He’s finally reached the big-3-0, but his production has stayed remarkably consistent over time in a way that hints at continued value into his mid-30’s barring injury.

85.) Clay Matthews (OLB - GB)

When you look at hurries, Matthews was still elite (27.5). When you look at sacks, it was disappointing (6). What is the real Clay Matthews? Who knows. Injuries reportedly slowed his quickness, which is a good reason why he seemed a step slow, and that one step turns potential sacks into hurries.

84.) Darren McFadden (RB - OAK)

He's still never played a full season, but when he's healthy, he might be a top-5 back in the game. Great in open space, McFadden put up his second season of 5+ ypc, and was good as a receiving threat like always. Again, injuries are the only thing holding him back, as he's still just 25 years old. The o-line is better. The passing game should be at its highest level of any point in his time in Oakland. The time for DMC truly is now.

83.) Derrick Johnson (ILB - KC)

Derrick Johnson is already 30, which is a fact that I was stunned to find out. Other than a handful of guys who should or definitely will end up in Canton (Urlacher, Ray Lewis), inside linebackers don’t usually age all that well. Either way, for at least the next couple of seasons, Derrick Johnson should continue to be extremely valuable, and if he approaches the 30 defeats he put up in 2011, one of the most valuable end-to-end linebackers in the NFL.

82.) Brian Orakpo (OLB - WAS)

Brain Orakpo was double-teamed even more as a third-year player, and his sack numbers did fall indicating that either this was effective or his play dropped, but behind the veil of conventional statistics lies the 16 holding penalties Orakpo has drawn over his first two seasons. Orakpo continues to be one of the best young OLBs in the NFL, and with Ryan Kerrigan possibly taking another step-up (or at least commanding more o-line attention) look fro Orakpo to once again wreak havoc on opposing QBs.

81.) Duane Brown (LT - HOU)

Duane Brown is the rare player who’s production did not immediately drop after a steroid-based suspension. Unlike Shawne Merriman or Brian Cushing, Brown returned from his 4-game hiatus and continued to excel at pass blocking. He successfully held down the fort at LT for three different QBs. With Winston and Brisel gone, the Texans will look to Brown to better his run-blocking, and given his improvements as a player since 2008, I can’t see him letting the Texans down.

80.) Osi Umenyiora (DE - NYG)

Osi Umenyiora playd in 9 regular season games and obviously four playoff games in 2011. In those 13 games, he had 14 sacks. That’s quite good. Limiting snaps and missing training camp did quite well for Strahan, and although Umenyiora, now with new contract, probably can’t avoid camp, he can still emulate late-career Michael Strahan once again in 2012. His pass rush skills are still among the best in the league, and since he doesn’t need to be utilized as much in run-downs, his weaknesses aren’t as impactful. Overall, he’s worth the money, because there are still few pure-pass-rushers with Osi’s track-record and continuing success.

79.) Lardarius Webb (CB - BAL)

Lardarius Webb’s charting numbers in FO are not great, but that belies the fact that his ball skills that are among the best in the NFL (22 passes defended). He’s bettered his play in each of the last three seasons, and now is definitely the best corner the Ravens have had since Chris McAllister in his prime (2004-2008). Lardarius Webb can get better in run support, but with his great man coverage abilities can finally make Ed Reed harder to gameplan out of games.

78.) Dashon Goldson (SS - SF)

I find it odd that the 49ers are not signing Goldson to a long-term deal. He was excellent in 2011, and is still relatively young at a position that ages quite well (FS). His coverage was great in 2011, seen mostly by doing great work against both the Giants and Saints in the playoffs. Goldson is a pure FS in that he doesn’t play the run all that well (not that the stacked 49ers defense needs him to), but just for his coverage skills alone he merits a high spot on the list.

77.) Jay Cutler (QB - CHI)

Other than the QB that ranks two positional spots ahead of him, there was no bigger injury in the NFL than Cutler breaking his thumb last December. The Bears were 8-3 with Cutler last season, including three straight comfortable wins over the Eagles, Lions and Chargers. His ram numbers are never going to be incredible in that Martz offense that let an already bad line get no help, but Cutler did end his season phenomenally. To me, the switch from Martz to Tice can do wonders for Cutler who just needs some better protection. Getting Brandon Marshall is also huge, as those two had obvious chemistry in their Broncos days.

76.) Joe Staley (LT - SF)

Joe Staley was finally healthy, and what do you know? He was great. Staley had a grand total of zero holding penalties, and by Football Outsiders, had the fifth-fewest sacks allowed of any LT that played in all 16 games. His run blocking can improve, but the most important job for a LT is to protect the blind-side and Staley was incredible at doing that in 2011. Like so many players, the key for Staley is just staying healthy, as he can be a future star at the position if he does.

75.) Brian Urlacher (MLB - CHI)

The last time Urlacher finished a season with injury problems was after his broken wrist in 2009, to which he came back with an excellent 2010. Now he’s recovering from a PCL and MCL, and while he is almost certainly going to be out there come Week 1, this injury definitely brings with it more question marks than a sprained wrist. At the end of the day, it is hard to envision Urlacher being anything other than an excellent Tamp-2 MLB in pass coverage (#8 success rate against the pass in 2011) and a solid one against the run, and leading another good Bears defense.

74.) Cam Newton (QB - CAR)

My God. That was easily the most impressive rookie season by a QB ever. Yes, he got lucky that he came in a year where offensive numbers exploded in a way that would make the steroid era look small, but for a guy to put up 4,000 yards and complete 60.0% of his passes on a team with one true receiver is just amazing. His running was also just as effective as Michael Vick in his prime, but Cam’s a more physical runner, which in theory should allow him to hold up better. All in all, I don’t think too many QBs have had seasons like that and not gone on to be truly special.

73.) Dwight Freeney (DE - IND)

The good news is that he was held and double-teamed as much as ever, and faced fewer pure rushing opportunities than ever, and Freeney still put up 8.5 sacks and 18 hurries. It will be very interesting to see how Freeney plays in a 3-4, as he’s not a true fit for a 3-4 DE or a 4-3 OLB. He’s the perfect 4-3 DE, so Freeney could be a very interesting trade chip midseason for a 4-3 team looking for another rusher off the end. Of course, that precludes the league actually warming up to in-season trades for once.

72.) Jason Babin (DE - PHI)

Many thought 12.5 sacks for Tennessee in 2010 was a fluke, an outcome of being the featured rusher in a Jeff Fisher DE-friendly system. 18 sacks is no fluke, though. He’s still mainly a one-trick pony, but what few runs he did face he did adequately against (2.6 yards allowed on average). If there is one worry is that for a guy with so many sacks, he had relatively few hurries (just 20), so if he gets a little bit slower, expect those sack numbers to possibly lessen a lot.

71.) Chris Johnson (RB - TEN)

Well, that was certainly an interesting season. For half the year, it looked like he wouldn't get to CJ1K, but he finally responded late with some great games at the end of the season. Somehow, he finished the season with a ypc of 4.0, and another season of around 50 catches. He's still as fast as any RB in the NFL, but with the regression of the o-line in front of him, the amount of times he gets to use that incredible speed continues to lessen. To me, the real Chris Johnson is still the one that was up to his old tricks late in 2011 rather than the Shuan Alexander v.2007 impression from Weeks 1-10.

70.) Julius Peppers (DE - CHI)

A 90% stop rate. 31 hurries. 11 sacks. Top 10 in fewest yards given pup per play. Great against the run. Julius Peppers had another great season in Chicago (actually an improvement over an already good 2010) and at 32 shows no signs of slowing down. Now, if the rest of the Bears pass rush could just get on his level, they could be really scary.

69.) Roddy White (WR - ATL)

Roddy White was targeted 165 times in 2009, which was 2nd to Andre Johnson. How did he follow that up? Being targeted 180 times in 2010 and 2011. That is a ridiculous number, but Matt Ryan really does rely on White that much because he is mostly dependable. Roddy White continues to be the Rafael Palmeiro without the steroids of the NFL, a true stat-compiler. That all said, he does provide immense value as a durable receiver who hasn't missed a game since 2007. Matt Ryan turns to him because he knows he can. Peyton Manning used to do the same with Marvin until Reggie Wayne came along. Julio Jones could be that type of player that allows more space for Roddy White to not just became exhaustive but efficient.

68.) Lance Briggs (OLB - CHI)

With less injury questions, slightly less age questions (he is two years younger, but the chances of him having Urlacher’s odd longevity is not high) and basically the same effective, constant production, Briggs beats out his linebacking companion. Briggs’ numbers against the run were phenomenal for a 4-3 WLB, and his pass coverage improved in 2011 to the best level it has been since his 2005-06 heyday. The Bears are relying on a lot of top-end talent on defense from 30+ year olds, but Briggs has definitely delivered.

67.) Chris Long (DE - STL)

Chris Long was once thought off as an overdrafed energy pass rusher out of college. Four years later, he’s now become one of the best pass rushers in the “just entering his prime” age bracket. With 13 sacks and 33 hurries in fewer snaps than most good pass rushers given the Rams futility on offense, Long had his best season yet in 2011. The development of Robert Quinn should help him see less double-teams as the years go on. Just know this, here is the man almost solely responsible for the biggest upset of the 2011 season (2-14 St. Louis beating 13-3 New Orleans legitimately).

66.) Cortland Finnegan (CB - STL)

Jeff Fisher is banking that Cortland Finnegan is the version from 2011 & 2008 and not the guy in 2009 that was merely above average and 2010 who was just plain average. Cortland Finnegan was among the best corners in the NFL in 2011 by the FO Charting figures, placing #12 in success rate and #3 in ypa allowed despite facing a lot of balls thrown his way. In a division with Larry Fitzgerald and Sidney Rice, and a schedule that features Calvin Johnson, Greg Jennings and Brandon Marshall, if the Rams hope to recapture their 2010 magic, they need Finnegan to be that player. And not the “Hyde” version from 2010.

65.) Matthew Stafford (QB - DET)

Matthew Stafford was finally healthy, and was about as good as the Lions could have ever hoped when they drafted him 1^st overall. He became just the fourth QB to throw for 5,000 yards. Yes, it was in a year where two other guys did it as well, but those other two guys are both in the top-10 of this list. Matthew Stafford has everything a QB needs other than a solid running game, but with Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew in place seemingly for years, this could be the start of something special in Detroit.

64.) Von Miller (OLB - DEN)

Until that late season hand injury Von Miller was putting up a Suh-esque rookie season. Now, having Elvis Dumervil, a more established player when 2011 started, across from him helped free up one-on-one blocks for Miller, but that still doesn’t even begin to explain how a 4-3 OLB can get 17.5 hurries and 11 sacks. John Fox is usually more conservative with his linebackers, but he quickly realized that he had a beast on his hands with Von Miller. The 2^nd overall draft earned that lofty pre-draft reputation easily.

63.) NaVarro Bowman (ILB - SF)

If you could create the perfect complement to Patrick Willis as an ILB partner, NaVarro Bowman would be it. Willis’s strength is pass coverage. Bowman’s strength is run stopping. They are both good at rushing the passer, and with Willis is a surer tackler, Bowman is more rangy. Honestly, the 49ers have just unearthed the best combination 3-4 ILB’s since Ray Lewis and Bart Scott’s primes (or even Ray Lewis and Jamie Sharper’s primes).

62.) Matt Schaub (QB - HOU)

And now we get to the man that was the source of the biggest injury in the NFL in 2011. When Schaub got hurt, the Texans were 7-3 with 6 winnable games left. They were so good that even after two Leinart/Yates games, the Texans ranked #1 in DVOA. They were most likely the best non-Green Bay team in the NFL last season. Schaub was a major reason why, with a career high in Y/A and a career low in interception rate. And he did all of this without Andre Johnson for much of his time in the lineup. If he and AJ stay healthy, expect the Texans to challenge for the title of “league’s most complete team” once again.

61.) Ndamukong Suh (DT - DET)

Well, his 2^nd year on the surface was a step down (and even beyond the surface was), but that is easy to do when the rookie season signals a bust in Canton. Suh still had 24 hurries and was excellent against the run, ranking in the top-20 I stop rate and average yards allowed. He has to curb his aggression to limit flags and suspensions, but I feel like those displays of emotion will subside. His displays of dominance: those should increase.

60.) Jonathan Joseph (CB - HOU)

Jonathan Joseph’s effect was felt far more than his individual good but not great numbers. He came into by-far the worst secondary in the NFL and stabilized it, playing well on his half, making the Texans secondary a unit that opponents had to gameplan for. Sure, that great pass rush in front of him helped, but if Joseph just continues to do what he did, the Texans defense should continue to approve in its secondary.

59.) Aldon Smith (OLB - SF)

One. That's the amount of players to have more sacks as a rookie than Aldon Smith's 14 last season. That man was a freak: Jevon Kearse. If Aldon Smith has that career, it might even be disappointing. Now, the 49ers had a bevy of other awesome defenders for opposing teams to account for, but in limited pass-rush specialist duty, Aldon Smith was incredible, racking up 31 hurries to go along with those sacks. As he gets older, he'll probably develop against the run. Just the thought of a more complete Aldon Smith along-side NaVarro Bowman and Patrick Willis is downright terrifying.

58.) Ryan Kalil (C - CAR)

Another fine year for Ryan Kalil, who is suddenly being regarded as the 2^nd best o-lineman named Kalil in the NFL with brother Matt being the #4 pick for the Vikings. Matt will have to be quite good to match Ryan though, one of the league’s most consistent centers over the past five years. Kalil is one of the best pass-blocking centers in the NFL, and he and Jordan Gross have provided stability to a line that has undergone a lot of change since its heyday in 2008-09.

57.) Greg Jennings (WR - GB)

Greg Jennings reminds me a lot of early Reggie Wayne. Incredible route running, good hands, good enough speed, and couple that with great chemistry with an awesome QB, and you get a WR who will put up 70-80 for 1000-1300 and 7-12 TDs. Jennings would've fell in that range had he not missed three games (which is something that hasn't been an issue for him before that). It is easy to forget that Greg Jennings played at this level with Brett Favre too. In fact, he's really the last link to the Favre era on offense now that Scott Wells and Chad Clifton are gone.

56.) Mario Williams (DE - BUF)

It is odd Mario Williams never gets questioned the way Julius Peppers used to, as his production has never truly reached his #1 overall draft status (thankfully, he was in a weak class for top-picks so he still comes out better than Reggie Bush or Vince Young by about a factor of 10). Mario Williams should get a chance to shine in Buffalo, but his linemates in Houston were pretty good too. Finally healthy, it will be interesting to see if Mario can come back strong after his first real injury.

55.) Logan Mankins (LG - NE)

After being the perfect example of correlation not causation in 2010, with his return to the lineup coinciding with the Patriots 8 game win streak where they topped 30 points in each game, Mankins had a more normal 2011. His play actually dipped more than it has in years, but a lot of that might be the effects of an ACL injury that was unknown through the end of the season. All reports are that Mankins will be healthy and ready come Week 1, and without Matt Light next to him, Mankins needs to step up if overrated sophomore Nate Solder struggles.

54.) Victor Cruz (WR - NYG)

Well, that season is never happening again. The people who have put up back-to-back 1,500 yard seasons is a list two names long: Isaac Bruce and Andre Johnson. I would bet anything Cruz isn't joining that list, mainly because he accrued a ton of yards with high-YAC plays which are really volatile year-to-year. That said, he was no one-hit wonder either. I can easily see Cruz being among the league's best #2 receivers, and break off a couple long plays. His incredible body-control in space rivals Wes Welker.

53.) Nnamdi Asomugha (CB - PHI)

It is useless to talk about his charting numbers since he was totally misused most of the season. With the Eagles switching to man defense, we will see if 2011 was a fluke or a sign that Asomugha’s has reached his decline phase. Personally, I still want the former Raider to do well, to end up in Canton along with the other great Raider corners. With correct utilization, that can become more of a reality.

52.) Richard Seymour (DT - OAK)

The Giants ran for 118 yards in Super Bowl XLVI. You think if it was Richard Seymour instead of Kyle Love that Kevin Boothe was attempting to block they would have still rushed for 118 yards? Richard Seymour (and Asante Samuel) is living proof that Belichick does sometime get rid of guys one (or two-three-four-five-???) years too soon. He’s continued to be a massively disruptive force in Oakland, being the leader of an at-times dominant d-line. When he goes to Canton, it will be partly because of what he accomplished in Oakland.

51.) Jordy Nelson (WR - GB)

Jordy Nelson, by DVOA, had one of the greatest seasons a WR has ever had. Now, that probably won't happen again, but what will is that he will continue to surprise defenses with his speed. Forget the fact that he is white, so he was originally typcast into the "slot" receiver, Jordy Nelson was truly historically efficient working almost exclusively outside in 2011. He and Rodgers have great chemistry. Seeing those two combine for a back-shoulder throw is one of the most awesome sights in passing football right now. Nelson will probably not be historically good, but will probably continue to be criminally underrated.

Wednesday, July 18, 2012

NFL Top 200 for 2012: #150-101

For the third straight year, I will be counting down my personal Top 200 Players in the NFL. This ranking is completely subjective, built off of a completely subjective list of criteria, mixing recent performance (what they did in 2011 matters most, but 2009-2010 is still relevant), health, age, status and other random things that are unquantifiable. Unlike last year, I am not going through the exercise of listing all of the people that fell off of the list from 2011. First, that takes time, and second, I would rather not look back at all the hysterically wrong rankings I made a year ago. One note: this is not some trade value type column, or most valuable. For instance, Richard Sherman is ranked above Tony Romo. Would Dallas make that trade? Of course not. Is Sherman better at what he is asked to do than Romo? In my opinion he is. Anyway, let's get to numbers #150-101

*BTW, big shout-out to Football Outsiders (FO), my favorite independent football site on the web. I used a lot of their numbers in my justifications. Mostly, DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average), DYAR (defense-adjusted yards above replacement) Success Rate (how many plays a defender achieves success on), stop rate (the rate a defender makes stops), Defeats (any big play made by a defender) ypa allowed (yards per pass allowed by a defender), and more. Their stuff is great, and without them, I would never know how good Alteraun Verner is, for example. I wouldn't know a whole lot of other stuff as well*

150.) Jabaal Sheard (DE - CLE)

8.5 sacks and 18 hurries as a rookie for a team that didn't face too many passes given their stagnant offense? That is a recipe for a quiet, but extremely effective player. Sheard also didn't slow down as the season wore on, another sign that he can be quite special.

149.) Jonathan Goodwin (C - SF)

How about this for a good season? Goodwin leaves the place where he made his name with 5 highly effective seasons in New Orleans, and then goes to the 49ers to be the elder statesman in a line for a 13-3 team. Goodwin was the best pass-blocker the 49ers had on that line last season.

148.) Jonathan Stewart (RB - CAR)

Pity for Stewart and Williams. As long as they reside in Carolina, their rushing TD opportunities are going to be swallowed up by each other and more importantly Cam Newton. But there is a positive, gaping holes that allowed Stewart to pound his way to 762 highly efficient (24% DVOA) yards at 5.4 a clip.

147.) Carson Palmer (QB - OAK)

Discounting Carson Palmer's first two games where he was understandably rusty, he started the last 8 games for the Raiders. Other than throwing 10 interceptions (4 of them against the 15-1 Packers), Palmer threw for 2,300 yards at 8.5 ypa, with a 63.2 cmp%. Not too bad, given the injuries around him. Worth a 1st and a 2nd? No. Worth acquiring in a vacuum? You bet.

146.) Fred Davis (TE - WAS)

Again, in a league with some historically-productive TE seasons, Davis's 65/800/7 type season can get lost, but given his improvement as a blocker, and the fact that he'll be playing with what we all assume is a better QB, his value might be realized.

145.) Stephen Tulloch (OLB - DET)

The Lions have very little experience and skill in their defensive back-7, and the little they do have resides in Stephen Tulloch.The former Titans standout was excellent against the pass once again, and although he's not the run defender he used to be, he can be used as a great zone defender for the numerous slot/TEs the Lions will face.

144.) Patrick Peterson (CB - ARZ)

How good is he as a corner? Who knows. Rookie corners are rarely finished things (and those that seem to be - McCourty - might not), but Peterson's value may lie with him being the first person since Devin Hester to really affect a team with his return abilities. I certainly got "Devin Hester... You are RIDICULOUS" flashbacks throughout 2011.

143.) Earl Thomas (S - SEA)

Earl Thomas had one of the better rookie seasons for a safety in years in 2010. His overall play dipped slightly, but he still showed all the promise of a future all-pro. He was a sure-tackling, success-rate machine once again in 2010, and while his interception numbers dropped, his coverage numbers bettered.

142.) Adrian Wilson (S - ARZ)

He's here on reputation. Seeing the slow decline of Adrian Wilson is sad, but he still remains a vocal leader and sound player. His aggresiveness against the run has begun to lessen, but Wilson has remained just as valuable in coverage.

141.) Kevin Williams (DT - MIN)

Talk about another player here on merit. The guy who quietly built a great hall-of-fame worthy career is still pounding away at opposing guards and centers. He's just 32, and still productive (with 5.5 sacks and 13 hurries last year), but Williams now has to face a lot more double-teams with the other half gone.

140.) John Abraham (DE - ATL)

9.5 more sacks (and 35! more hurries) and John Abraham continues his Adrian Wilson-of-DEs type career one more year. He totally outplayed the ballyhooed FA signing Ray Edwards, and is still a key focus for any opposing D-Line. At 34, he's nearing the end of usual productivity for DEs.

139.) Max Starks (G - PIT)

After being the only Steelers o-lineman to stay healthy from 2006-2009, Starks has played just 20 games over the past two seasons. Still, he might be coming off of his best season when he was on the field, dominating opposing LEs. Roethlisberger's protection plummeted with Starks gone.

138.) Dez Bryant (WR - DAL)

As of this writing, Dez Bryant has just been arrested for allegedly attacking his mother. It is likely he will be suspended, and it is likely he is every bit the headache that made him fall on draft day. That said, he improved in every area as a sophomore, and if he can avoid trouble, can continue to replace the slip in production from Witten and Miles Austin.

137.) Lawrence Timmons (ILB - PIT)

Timmons play slipped from 2010, but without Harrison and Woodley, teams could hone in on stopping him. He was still rock-solid against the run, but Timmons was used less as a blitzer in 2011. The biggest plus for Timmons is that he has been highly durable and dependable at a position with injury and age concerns for the Steelers.

136.) Ryan Kerrigan (OLB - WAS)

By FOs stats, Ryan Kerrigan was the #1 OLB in all of football playing the run (in success rate and yards allowed). He also chipped in 28 hurries and 7.5 sacks). He's dynamite, and is, I believe, the 3rd highest rated rookie defender. The gap isn't that big between him and the other two, though, as most would think.

135.) DeSean Jackson (WR - PHI)

Jackson had his second straight decent season (which was a step down, remind you, from 2009), but he says he's finally happy and on-board with a new contract. Fine. His catch rate improved back above 50% in 2011, but that belied the fact that he was catching fewer bombs and more developed, shorter routes. That may not be a bad thing.

134.) Julio Jones (WR - ATL)

Atlanta was criticized for trading a truckload for Julio Jones, but it is hard to say that the player didn't disappoint. 54/959/7 in 13 games (17.8 ypc). Those are numbers of a deep-threat, which is exactly what Julio Jones was advertised as. If he keeps improving, no one will remember what Atlanta gave up for that trade.

133.) D'Brickshaw Ferguson (LT - NY)

D'Brick's level dropped a bit from his lofty 2010 (something that can be said about almost every Jet, really), but he was still the 2nd best o-lineman the Jets had. His pass protection fell a bit more than his run-blocking, but some of that may be Sanchez's lack of pocket-presence.

132.) Daryl Smith (MLB - JAX)

Daryl Smith led the NFL in 'Defeats' in 2010. He still had over 20 (down from 38), and was still a top-10 player against the run at MLB, but chances are 2010 was a fluke. 2011 wasn't, and Smith should continue to be a sturdy member of a really underrated defense.

131.) Vontae Davis (CB - MIA)

Needless to say, after another season of better production, Vontae Smith has ended all debate about if he's better than Sean Smith. Sadly, he's not similarly better than a handful of other CBs, which looked like it could be a future possibility a couple of seasons ago. Davis has, though, turned into one of the best run-stopping corners in the NFL.

130.) Marques Colston (WR - NO)

With more options, Colston was targeted 25 fewer times in 2011, but had a career high 75% catch rate. He's been about as consistent as any WR since entering the league in 2006, and although he's not a dynamic player that could exceed outside of the NO offense, he's integral to the success of it.

129.) Aaron Hernandez (TE - NE)

This might seem low, but to me, Aaron Hernandez wouldn't be nearly the producer he is without Gronk and Welker making him option #3. Hernandez is far more elusive than I ever though, but unlike those two, he can be covered.

128.) Brent Grimes (CB - ATL)

Brent Grimes was the #3 and #2 in FOs success rate and ypp allowed. Now, this was out-of-line from his usual good production, so it might be a fluke. It will be interesting to see what he does with more targets now that Samuel (#4 and #a in those) is across from him. If he holds up, this could be the NFL's best corner tandem.

127.) Fred Jackson (RB - BUF)

Jackson was having his best season (5.5 ypc, dangerous as ever as a receiver) before he got hurt. Fully healthy, Jackson can continue to be one of the best multi-purpose backs for cheap, holding off Spiller-time a couple more years. The only issue is with sojourns in Canada, Fred Jackson is already 31.

126.) Joe Haden (CB - CLE)

Haden was the opposite of Grimes, with his 2011 numbers falling from a great rookie campaign (by FOs numbers, his performance as a rookie was better than McCourty). Haden still had 18 passes defended, which is a better indicator than his '0' interceptions of his future value.

125.) Joe Flacco (QB - BAL)

Oh the odd lives the QB class of 2008 leads. For years, Flacco and Ryan have traded off the title of the best QB from that class (Ryan's in 2008, 2010, Flacco in 2009, 2011). I have no idea who I would rather have. Flacco is nowhere near as bad as he can look at times, and he's become really good at limiting turnovers, which for now is half the battle with the defense he has behind him.

124.) Anquan Boldin (WR - BAL)

His last few years in Baltimore, Bolding was used primarily on shorter routes, but in Baltimore he's ironically gone deeper. His ypc rose again in 2011, as his chemistry with Flacco improved. Boldin has been both durable and consistent, but with the big 30 having passed, it is time to start wondering about decline.

123.) Matt Ryan (QB - ATL)

Matt Ryan's stats were basically the same in 2011 as they were in 2010. The one difference was he stopped putting together last-minute drives which he did incredibly well in 2010. Both years are flukes at the opposite end. Matt Ryan might take a jump again with the continued maturation of Julio Jones. Back in 2008, people were envisioning Matt Ryan being a top-4 QB. Now, he's not a top-4 QB whose name starts with 'R', but that doesn't mean he isn't able to win a playoff game.

122.) Cliff Avril (DE - DET)

Cliff Avril is by far the pure-pass rusher of Detroit's feared front, but that doesn't make him any less valuable. 11 sacks and 25 hurries, which marks the 2nd straight year he has been 8+ and 20+ in those two stats. His run play can improve, but as a pass rusher, he's about as good as any in that second tier.

121.) Sean Lee (ILB - DAL)

How do you get 23 defeats when you don't have any sacks and few tackles for loss? Be a really good cover linebacker. Sean Lee might be the most ball-hawking cover linebacker, and his cover skills took a step up from 2010 (when they were already good). The Dallas defense has lost a lot over the past couple years, but uncovering Lee has been a huge boon.

120.) DeAngelo Williams (RB - CAR)

Football Outsiders notes that DeAngelo Williams is three carries away from becoming the third RB in NFL history to have over 1,000 carries with a 5.0+ ypr. That isn't skewed either, with four of his six seasons crossing the 5.0 threshold. He's not the workhorse back he was in 2008-09, but he might be just as efficient (#3 in RB DVOA), and is in a perfect offense for his skills.

119.) Ike Taylor (CB - PIT)

Ike Taylor has been the Steelers best corner since about 2004. He's had a surprisingly long, successful career for someone never mentioned among the best in the NFL at his position. So far, he had one truly outstanding season (2008), but in 2011, he was #16 and #6 in Success rate and ypp allowed, as LeBeau asked him to play more man. Ike did it quite well.

118.) Scott Wells (C - STL)

Hopefully, his move to STL doesn't come with the same depreciation in his skills that Harvey Dahl's move to STL did a year ago. The only red flag from the rock-solid Scott Wells that I can think of his that the Packers chose 39-year-old Jeff Saturday over him, but even the best organizations make mistakes. Wells might be one of Thompson's few.

117.) Connor Barwin (OLB - HOU)

Connor Barwin's contract is up this year. My gut feeling is that assuming Wade Philips or his 3-4 defense is around come 2013, the Texans will do whatever it takes to make sure Barwin is there with them. He was unleashed in the DeMarcus Ware role in 2011, with 11.5 sacks and 26 hurries. He'll never have Ware-like production, but he might do what another Wade OLB did in his prime, and emulate Shuan Phillips instead.

116.) LaMarr Houston (DT - OAK)

LaMarr Houston had just one sack, which seems to be a step-down from a highly productive rookie season, but hidden behind those numbers were 21 hurries and being the player who drew the 2nd most offensive holding calls. He was still every bit the disruptive force he was as a rookie, learning loads under the wing of Richard Seymour.

115.) Marshawn Lynch (RB - SEA)

Beast Mode got a DUI recently, and as a repeat offender he might have to sit out a game or three. Not to worry, since he basically sat out the first 6 games last year, then turned it on and was incredible down the stretch for one of the NFL's friskiest teams. Lynch has become far more successful as a physical, bruising runner than I would have ever imagined.

114.) Chris Myers (C - HOU)

There is a reason that the Texans, the best breeding ground for lineman in the NFL these days, chose to keep Chris Myers over Eric Winston. Probably because he's a center, a harder position to fill. Myers was excellent again in 2011, and will be counted on to keep that level of play with Winston and Monty Briesel gone.

113.) Brandon Pettigrew (TE - DET)

Pettigrew might be somewhat overrated by conventional stats. His high volume numbers are mostly due to him being one of the few dependable targets for Stafford to throw to when Calvin Johnson is triple-covered. That said, his blocking is definitely underrated. He's about as complete as a TE will get (again, other than those three monsters still to come).

112.) Vincent Jackson (WR - TB)

Jackson was a DVOA star in 2009-2010, but although his volume stats remained constant in 2011, his catch rate dropped. Some of that might be Philip Rivers having an off year. No matter what the case, the Bucs and more importantly Josh Freeman, need a happy, healthy Vincent Jackson. He still remains one of the league's top two or three deep threats.

111.) Michael Vick (QB - PHI)

Injuries derailed Michael Vick as they always seem to do, but they derailed what was another really good season. There were reports of him going back to his old playground-style ways, and he definitely threw a more appropriate amount of interceptions, but when he was playing, he was essentially as valuable a player as he was in 2010.

110.) Jordan Gross (T - CAR)

Jordan Gross was the anchor of the best run-blocking o-line in the NFL from 2008-2009. Now, he's just the anchor of the best run-offense in the NFL. It was a disaster (for the team, not so much him) in the year in the middle, but he kept Cam Newton's backside clean for most of the year, and remains one of the most consistent blockers in the NFL.

109.) Antonio Gates (TE - SD)

May we finally be witnessing the decline of Antonio Gates? In reality, health has been his biggest issue (an injury ended what had been up to that point a historically good 2010 season), but Gates wasn't as explosive in 2011. Phil Rivers needs his TE with Vincent Jackson now out of town.

108.) AJ Green (WR - CIN)

AJ Green was #19 in DVOA and #9 in DYAR as a rookie, on a team with no real above average receiver other than himself (and TE Jermaine Gresham) with a rookie QB throwing him the ball. That spells a future star of this league. To me, the most impressive part of Green's superb rookie season was his 57% catch rate when his diet included many intermediate and deep passes. He's a special player embarking on what is hopefully a long career.

107.) Elvis Dumervil (DE - DEN)

10 sacks, 15 hurries and top-20 production against the run, and that adds up for another productive season for Elvis. He may never approach the 17 sacks he had in 2009, but this is his third season in double digits over his last four. At 28, he is smack in the middle of his peak. The best news: he's about to face a lot more pass attempts with a Manning-led offense.

106.) Jerod Mayo (ILB - NE)

Jerod Mayo might be the exact opposite of Tedy Bruschi. Mayo's a solid player. Totally sure-tackling. Always good in run support. Yet, he never seems to make those huge plays that Bruschi used to . Then again, back in 2001-2003, when the offense got to 24 on a good day, those big plays were more necessary. Now, the defense just can't screw up, and Mayo is awesome at doing that.

105.) Calais Campbell (DE - ARZ)

Calais Campbell racked up 28 defeats, and led the Cardinals in sacks again. He had 15 hurries, and improved against the run. All told, the man may have reached his peak, but at 27, that peak is still extremely valuable and here for another 3-4 years at least. Campbell is doing a good job of replacing the production that is decreasing from Darnell Dockett.

104.) JJ Watt (DE - HOU)

That pick-6 to change the course of the AFC Wild Card game was no fluke. Him dominating Michael Oher and Ben Grubbs the next week wasn't either. Everything this new Texans defense does is built around Smith adn Watt being able to hold the edge and let those cannons behind them fly, and Watt was incredible at it as a rookie.

103.) Ray Rice (RB - BAL)

Ray Rice gets thrown to a lot. Man, Flacco is a QB that understands what "checkdown" means. That said, for the first time, Ray Rice was not only a good volume receiver, but an incredibly effective one (29.5% DVOA as a receiver). His running improved in 2011 from a lull in 2010, and with a new contract, he should be one happy littly Ray.

102.) Devin Hester (WR - CHI)

Reports are that with Marshall in toe and Knox out, Hester may get some slot and deep threat duties. Fine. He'll never be anything more than an average receiver. But man, does Devin Hester continue to be a monster in the return game. He had his first KO TD since 2007, and had his 2nd best punt return average of his career. It is time to just admit that this is no longer a fluke. That Devin Hester has returned, and he is once again the NFL's best special teams player.

101.) Tony Romo (QB - DAL)

Tony Romo may be the QB that is most disparately viewed across the NFL. Some view him as one of the best QBs in that class behind Rodgers, Brady, Brees and (healthy) Peyton. Some view him as a stat-padder who can't perform in the clutch. In reality, it is somewhere in the middle. Statistically, in volume, rate and advanced stats, he's constantly somewhere between 5-10th. He'll never really crack that top group, but he's unlikely to get much worse anytime soon. He may never win another playoff game, but that doesn't make his career any worse than what it is: solid performance over a 5-7 years. Here is a good description: Tony Romo is by far the best current QB who will never be a Hall of Famer. That isn't such a bad title to have.

Friday, July 13, 2012

NFL Top 200 for 2012: #200-151

Wednesday, June 27, 2012

The King Wins the Crown

So, LeBron James won an NBA title last week. Immediately, the beatifying began. People suddenly forgot about his ridiculous decision two summers ago. People suddenly forgot that he cheated the system, that he decided to join his biggest rival and coerce another all-star to join them. But you know what? After what LeBron James did the last month, starting with massive performances when down 2-1 against Indiana and without their big-man, I forgot about it as well.

The Indiana beatdowns were just the beginning. LeBron followed with the only performance of his career that could rival that Game 6 back in 2007 against the Pistons. Down 3-2 against Boston and heading to that Sam Adams Factory of a city, LeBron was about to be demolished by every fat slob sportswriter again for "choking" and "coming up small" and all those others things. What did LeBron do? He score 40 in three quarters. He could've pushed 60 if he didn't sit due to the fact that the Heat were up by enough already. Against one of the most spirited, arrogant teams put together (that other 'Big 3'), a team that had knocked LeBron out of the playoffs in 2008 and 2010 in their home building, LeBron gave a performance fit for a King. That's when it really started.

After losing Game 1 against OKC, and actually looking like the slower team, LeBron decided to show up, to do all those things people said he didn't do when the bright lights of the playoffs came. He posted up. He took over in crunch time. He defended everything. He was a beast, he put together four games that rival anything anyone not named Jordan has put up. That's when it was cemented.

I don't care about the fact that LeBron is the best player of the past ten years. I don't care about all those idiots telling me I need to appreciate him, or that we should stop hating him, or that he has redeemed himself after uttering that ridiculous sentence of "I am taking my talents to South Beach." To me, he did none of that. I still hate him. I still think he complains way too much, is given way too much lee-way and respect by the referees, and did something so cowardly by teaming up with the best players he could fine, and doing it while pretending not to and making every NBA team fellate him for one summer. I still hate him for all of that, but I am glad LeBron got his title.

Like most things in my life as a sports fan, it connects to Peyton Manning. For years, I had to defend Peyton Manning from all the idiots that said he's a choker, that he can't win the big one, that a man who had his kicker and defense carry him to a title was better than him. I had to listen to all of that even after Manning won his title. People tried to say it was only because he had to face Rex Grossman (never mind the fact the Bears had the NFC's best defense, and the 2006 Colts were the only team ever to beat the #1, #2 and #3 scoring defenses in one playoff run). Being a Colts fan was hard, and Peyton Manning isn't even an arrogant jag like LeBron. But I still felt bad for LeBron, for having to go through that same "he can't win the big one" stuff that Peyton had to.

Now, I will say that LeBron, and NBA players in general, can do more for their team to win a title than a QB, but still, it was obvious that he has been the best player in the NBA over the past five seasons. Yet people were saying Kobe was better. People were saying Durant was better. Derrick Rose somehow won an MVP last year. LeBron sat there and took it all, and he finally got his ring.

Personally, I think LeBron really just wants to be liked. He's just really awkward at doing it. Something like the NBA version of A-Rod. His biggest fault is that he tries way too hard to be liked. Every move seems calculated, targeted. In a way, I feel bad for him. I don't think LeBron ever thought his decision would come with that much back-lash, that much hatred. We even have evidence since he's already admitted he hasn't ruled out a potential return to Cleveland. I do feel bad about the way people excoriated LeBron. I always felt it was fair to blame him for taking the easy way out (and guess what? it worked), but not for being way too obtuse and over-his-head to not know that the decision was a huge mistake.

LeBron has his title. After arguably his worst career failing last season (blowing a 2-1 series lead to Dallas, a team that seems very underrated historically, given their dominating romp through the playoffs last season, beating this same OKC team 4-1 and beating this same Miami team 4-2), LeBron looked way over his head. Well, just like MJ who lost to the Pistons twice in a row before his dominance started, or Kobe (sans Shaq) losing the final-clincher by 39 one year before winning two straight titles, and like what Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook will do soon, LeBron took his fall, got up and finished the job. LeBron has his title. Now, LeBron, just don't do it again.

Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Comedy Power Rankings (Updated)

My last post about Community got me thinking about my personal list of favorite comedy programs. I'm not really a fan of drama on TV. Of course, there are exceptions (The Wire, Breaking Bad, The Good Wife, Deadwood), but I would rather laugh than cry or be tense. Comedies also usually have less staying power than Dramas, so it is interesting to see how many of my favorite comedy programs lasted few years. So, here is my initial power rankings of my favorite comedy programs. A few notes about this:

1.) I'm only ranking comedy programs of which I have seen a majority of episodes or enough to basically understand the show fully; therefore the following are invalid: 30 Rock, The Office, Parks & Rec, The Big Bang Theory, Eastbound & Down, Family Guy, The Simpsons, Entourage, Will & Grace, Scrubs, Sex and the City, Frasier, other random old shows not listed and many others. Of course, this means I like every show on the list. That makes sense since if I didn't like it, I wouldn't keep watching it, and therefore wouldn't watch it enough to have it qualify.

2.) I'm ranking past shows and current, and for the current, I'll indicate if that show is trending up (has a chance to get higher) or trending down (the opposite). I haven't seen much comedy pre-Seinfeld, so nothing from there (I Love Lucy, Cheers, etc. is ineligible).

3.) I've specified 'comedy programs' because this is more about any show on TV where the point is to make the audience laugh. So live shows are included, fake news shows, sketch shows. It isn't limited to just sitcoms.

Anyway, let's get to the list.

20.) Saturday Night Live (since 2004 - when I started watching)

Obviously, the show has been going on long before I started watching TV, and there have been numerous "golden eras" of the show before 2004, but that is when I started watching. Saturday Night Live to me has always been an enigma. Individually, the people are almost always really talented. Bill Hader, Jason Sudeikis, Will Forte and Darrell Hammond could do about anything and I would laugh. The other players during this time (Fey and Poehler in the beginning, Rudolph, Samberg, Wiig, Keenan, Armisen) have all been talented. But to me, this era of Saturday Night Live has been less than the some of its parts, always underserving talented cast members, rehashing unfunny stuff and not being original enough. If I had one suggestion to Lorne and the rest of the SNL guys it would be to play original sketchs and not rehash and re-do so many old sketches. Even the good ones eventually get tired. That said, the best part about this era of SNL was the advent of the digital short (which might be on the way out with Samberg reportedly leaving). From their breakthrough with 'Lazy Sunday' to seeing Natalie Portman rap, to 'Dick in a Box' through the iconic 2008-09 season which saw the Lonely Island bros. knock out 'Jizz In My Pants', 'Like a Boss' and the best 'I'm On a Boat.' Saturday Night Live in that way adjusted to this new exciting medium. Along the way, there have been memorable characters and moments, but this SNL era for me is represented by the digital short, Tina Fey's Palin (and an all-around great 2008 election season) and way too many actors as hosts. And of course, Peyton Manning's brilliant turn as the host.

19.) Modern Family (Trending Down)

I'll admit that I did find the first season of Modern Family to be mostly brilliant. The representation of Cam and Mitchell was well done, Gloria's eccentric Venezuelan-ness was still new and hilarious, and I could look at Julie Bowen all day. What irks me about Modern Family is that it hasn't tried to grow at all (other than having Lily, well, literally grow). Mitchell and Claire are even more self-righteous. Gloria is still loud. Manny is still a man trapped in a kid. Haley is still a ditz and Alex is still the smart one. All of these traits and characterizations seemed fresh in the first season but now seemed tiresome. Modern Family is still capable of brilliant moments, and they mostly are in scenes and episodes where the entire family is together, but individually its becoming pretty weak. Nothing is worse, though, than Cam becoming such a stereotypically gay man. Cam in Season 1 was great because not only was the large, high-pitched gay man, but also an ex-football player and farmer and tough clown. For a man that played football, why is he now often depicted of having that effeminate way of running? Surely he couldn't do that on the football field. The biggest bright spot for the show over the last two seasons is that Luke has become a hilarious character. One of my favorite side-plots of any comedy show this past season was his bizarre, unexplained, hatred of Lily, Cam and Mitchell's baby. I understand why the show is loved, and I'll admit is still does have superb acting and is good at emotional moments, but it is far more broad than the show it started out as, and for a show that drew ratings big-time from the outset, I'm not sure why it changed.

18.) SportsNight

If I could only judge it by Season 1, it would be far higher up. Aaron Sorkin is a master of dialogue, and to me, his magnum opus in this regard in SportsNight (and particularly the first season, which he had a much bigger hand in). The story of CSN, the #3 sports network (since they do refer to ESPN, I can only imagine what the #2 network was supposed to be) through the eyes of their two anchors, the stat researcher geek who lands to hot director assistant, and the showrunner and her boss. The acting was brilliant all around (particularly Felicity Huffman as Dana). Of course, the writing, fit with all the usual Sorkinesian banter and back-and-forths was impressive. The only reason why SportsNight is not higher up is that the plots were all a little flat. I never, ever bought into Casey McCall's relationship with Dana, nor did I totally believe the whole "nerd gets the hot girl" arc with Jeremy and Natalie. It all seemed a little too easy, I guess. The second season become far too serialized in this sense which was distinctly different from the first season where most of the plots were simply about the show itself. The best comedies to me, especially ones like SportsNight about specific businesses, make working there seem fun, and I've never wanted to work in Sports media more than seeing Casey and Dan each night, and the fun all around for the Continental Sports Network. It really was a shame that Aaron Sorkin decided to give up on SportsNight to focus more on The West Wing. I understand it from Sorkin's perspective, but he gave up on something that could have been a lot more special than the very good show it was.

17.) That 70's Show

Of any sitcom on this list, That 70's Show is the one I have seen the least of. I didn't really watch it when it was actually out, but over the past couple summers I have watched it DVRed on re-runs on Nick at Nite (which makes me feel really old). I think it is criminally underrated by critics. Sure, it wasn't groundbreaking. It wasn't especially accurate at depicting life in the 70's. However, it had a deep cast full of good characters. Other than Fez, who was broad from the start, they had control over the characters for the run of the show. Each character had their own voice and it all mixed well. It is amazing looking back and seeing actors that would go on to do memorable things grow up as actors on the show (especially Mila Kunis, who was really raw in the beginning). What I really loved about the show was it embraced the fact that these were six friends in a open era, and paired them up constantly. I also loved those 'Circle' scenes, which were always fun. Not a great show, but it deserves to be mentioned more fondly than it is.

16.) Happy Endings (Trending Up)

Of all the current shows on this list (6 of the 17, not counting three who's spots are mostly set in stone, since they aren't serials) Happy Endings has the chance to rise the most. It's a weird show where I fully believe in my heart that creator David Caspe and the rest of the group totally changed the show after it started. The genesis of the show is Alex flees from her wedding to long-time mate Dave, and those two and their four mutual friends have to deal with the consequences. Honestly, that show sucked. They basically gave up on it halfway through the first season and turned Happy Endings into a rapid-fire joke sprint that centered around the wacky lives of six friends in Chicago. Since two of the six are married (the crazy-in-love Brad and Jane, which might be right behind Marshall and Lily for my favorite TV Comedy Marriage) and one of the others in gay (Max, right behind Barney as best supporting character for me as well), the relationship tension is minimal, but that is fine. Just like Arrested Development, I don't give a shit about the plot. The brilliance of the show is the writing, the timing, the acting and the set-up. It's just many, many jokes per minute at a rate faster than anything I have seen since Arrested. It's not as smart and savvy (there aren't many visual jokes and call-backs) but it is as referential and witty. The end of the 2nd Season hinted at some more relationship stuff, but they handled it well. The show also features my favorite current running gag which is Elisha Cuthbert's character, Alex, eating a shit-ton of food at all times. Also, Happy Endings figured out how to utilize Casey Wilson's many talents far better than SNL ever did. The only issue is that Dave is a rather boring character surrounded by 5 goofballs, but they turned that into a meta-joke late in S2 and I loved that too. Look out for Happy Endings over the next two years.

15.) Friends

If I was judging Friends by its first two seasons, it would be much higher. Friends in S1-2, where there was only one real romantic story-arc between the cast (Ross & Rachel, which back then was truly brilliantly constructed over the first two seasons), was witty, smart and openly hilarious. After that, it turned into a something of a comedy soap. The acting was still good, and it was funny, but Friends in its later seasons focused too much on relationships, and maybe more than any long running show on this list, it lost the sense of its characters. Many shows that last a long time are criticized for turnings its round characters into one-note caricatures as time goes on, where each characters particular eccentricity overtakes the character as a whole. For Friends, this virus affected almost every character. Joey went from a slightly air-headed actor to a complete idiot (early seasons showed Joey's level of inteligence to basically be comparable to Phoebe's). Ross became way too sappy and emotional. Monica became a neurotic, raging bitch as her OCD escalated. That said, the show did have a pull, and more than maybe any other show, any combination of its characters had chemistry and worked. Also, early Chandler Bing may be my favorite comedy character of all time. Friends was far too famous for what it deserved, and lost its brilliance as time went on (I mark the end of Friend's brilliance with Ross saying "Rachel" and Monica and Chandler hooking up) but for a while, it was Gold.

14.) Freaks and Geeks

I wrestled with putting it on the list for two reasons; 1 - it was an hour long dramedy that wasn't all that funny all the time, and 2 - it was only on the air for one truncated season. It was damn good in that one season, but who knows what the show would have done had more seasons come. The characters were all in high school anyway, so I really wonder what Season 2-4 of Freaks and Geeks would have been. That said, it was too good not to put it on the list. I don't revere it the way some do, and think that it was a little too sappy at times and understanding (I never understood why Lindsay was fully accepted by the 'Freaks' in the first place, or why Cindy Sanders would ever give Sam a once-over), but it did give a great representation of high school as a whole. Freaks and Geeks should also get credit for being quite a good period piece, representing high school in the early 80's accurately. Freaks and Geeks was led by a comedy genius in Judd Apatow, and had great actors that have gone on to do well (Seth Rogen, James Franco, Jason Segel, John Francis Daley), and these combined to create an excellent show for 18 episodes. My struggle is would this show have continued at that lofty pace for another 50. That is really hard to do, and especially for a show that at the outset starts off at a very transient age bracket with 15-18 year old characters.

13.) How I Met Your Mother (Trending Steady)

Oh, how this pains me to place it so low. The good news is after Season 5, it probably would have been lower. I'm done thinking this show will ever come close to what HIMYM was the first two seasons, but each of the last few years has been consistently good enough. Anyway, it is better to talk about the show when it was one of the best sitcoms on TV. In its first two seasons, HIMYM may have been the hippest show on television. The random things they created (Slapbet, Robin Sparkles, The Naked Man, etc.) were all great. The show did a great job connecting with the audience outside of the half-hour on Monday, creating dozens of fake web-sites from the show. I still say that HIMYM can do emotional moments better than any other sitcom on television today (just cue up the entirety of Marvin Eriksen's death and funeral from Season 6 for proof), but it has lost some of that incredible charm and mystery from S1-3. I think the narrator telling the kids (and transitively, the audience) that the day Ted meets the mother is the wedding has both solidified the show (no longer was in just floating in limbo like Seasons 4-5) but also hampered it, as all of Ted's relationships in-between we know end in failure. I feel sad for the creators (Carter Bays and Craig Thomas) because they probably never envisioned HIMYM lasting nearly this long, and they have to stretch out what they most likely had pegged as a 5-year story, but that is the spoils of success at times. When it is done, I'll probably only remember the good times, where it was the most inventive, savvy 'traditional' sitcom I have ever seen.

12.) Everybody Loves Raymond

Everybody Loves Raymond and Friends were essentially siblings, both put on the air and eventually taken off the air within one year of each other. To me, Friends was the better show originally, and because of the fame of its actors and its hip connectivity to the 20-somethings, it will forever be the more 'important' show, but to me, Raymond is better in totality. Unlike Friends, Raymond never lost what it had in the beginning, and you can make the argument it became better over time (a lot of this for me has to do with the fact that I enjoyed the kids more as kids than toddlers and babies). Everybody Loves Raymond followed the same formula for episodes for nine years, and my God was it successful. It helped that the cast was brilliant. Unlike Jerry Seinfeld, Ray Romano is a damn good actor (just see his work on Men of a Certain Age) and the whole cast, from Doris Roberts to Patricia Heaton to Brad Garrett to the late great Peter Boyle, had tremendous chemistry with each other. I could listen to that family argue with each other for days. In a lot of ways, they were a precursor to Arrested Development as it was a fresh take on the family sitcom. Instead of trying to create laughs out of a normal family, Raymond created an incredibly strange, spirited family and presented it as traditional. In the end, because of this and other successes, Ray Romano might be one of the most underrated comic minds of the last 20 years.

11.) Community (Trending Down)

I had a real hard time placing Community, a show I spent about 1,500 words bashing just three days ago. At its best, it was the best sitcom on TV (at the time) by far. Episodes like Remedial Chaos Theory (which is so universally praised and still not overrated), their original paintball episode 'Modern Warfare', their first homage with a Goodfellas parody in 'Contemporary American Poultry' and others were just a lot better than anything comedic on TV. My issue was that it appeared in parts of Season 2 and throughout much of Season 3 that it was trying to hard to appease to its fan-boy niche, and create a show that was more about what its fans wanted than what it was good at. It's homages were initially used sparingly, but late in Season 3 it became almost every other episode. It got trapped in its own brilliance. Because when Community did those episodes right it was magic, it gave Community, in my mind, a sense of invincibility that it could accomplish any homage and concept no matter how abstract, which made their strikeouts more prevalent. I have no idea what Community will be without Dan Harmon. My guess is it will be more of a witty, smart show about seven weird friends in a Community College, which is essentially what it was in Season 1. I loved that show too, more than much of the 3rd season. However, it will never be what it was at its best, which is the best experimental comedy I have ever seen.

Now we get to the Top 10, where all of these shows are brilliant. It was hard for me to actually decide on a ranking of this Top 10 other than the final four, which I knew going in. They all have just amazing moments and qualities.

10.) Parks & Recreation (Trending Steady)

I'll say this, other than maybe Everybody Loves Raymond, and the shows at numbers 1 and 2 on the list, I have never seen a comedy so incredibly consistent. Other than S1, when the show clearly started out way too much like The Office and then experimented before finding itself with the S1 finale 'The Rock Show', I have yet to see a bad episode of Parks and Recreation. Now, it doesn't reach the magnificent heights that Community can, and it hit home runs at the same frequency as How I Met Your Mother did in its first two seasons, but it smacks a double each time up. I have never seen a show mix genuine, sweet, emotional scenes with witty, smart humor this effortlessly. I have just two complaints about the show: 1.) I could do without Rob Lowe's character, as I find him just a little too broad for the show; 2.) I wish Mark Brendanawicz didn't get written off, which I know is an inexplicable belief. Anyway, the cast is, again other than Lowe, perfectly meshed and written. They are as good as any show of satirizing events that are in the news, and mixing in pop-culture. More than anything, they've created this little harmonious world that just seems so much fun. Plus, the fact that it is co-created by a blogging hero (and rabid baseball fan) Michael Schur can't hurt. I think Season 4 was a slight step down from Season 3 (which may have been the most consistent season of comedy I have seen since S2 of HIMYM), but it hasn't lost control like Community. It deserves its place in the Top-10 and has a chance to rise higher (bringing Mark back for another spin might curry some favor).

9.) Whose Line Is It Anyway?

At its best (Colin and Ryan's banter during games like 'Greatest Hits', 'Infomercial', or 'Scenes From a Hat' or 'Props' or 'Hats') this show was incredibly funny. The reason it isn't higher is mainly because I wasn't a fan of some of the games they played (Any singing game other than 'Greatest Hits', 'Hoedown' or 'Irish Drinking Song', or 'Sound Effects'). To me, it lives in its best form on Youtube, where I can view continuous streams of its best moments, and in that forum, there are few things better. Drew Carey was a solid host (cementing his place in my personal list of favorite 'hosts' and comics I want to see succeed mainly because he seemed like such a nice guy), and played off of the cast well. Wayne Brady is one of the more talented people I have ever seen, and Colin and Ryan were, well, Colin and Ryan. It was impossible not to love those two, and they were incredibly sharp. The fourth always rotated, but I've never not liked or appreciated a cast member. Even after its real run finished, Whose Line lived on on nightly syndication at 10 PM on ABC Family. As years have gone on, it's been pushed back to midnight, and probably it will soon be off the air, but it will live on in Youtube, and it will be the best example of improv comedy on TV maybe ever.

8.) The Colbert Report

Speaking of shows that were hard to place, The Colbert Report will forever be tied to The Daily Show. To me, the Colbert Report wasn't as groundbreaking as many think (it is essentially the same basic total satire of a news show that the original Daily Show with Craig Kilborn was, or what Weekend Update is at its best), but it is the first to make the focus the host, and it is by far the smartest. Nothing about the Report gives me more joy than to see Colbert and his staff just brilliantly tearing apart the hypocrisy in so much conservative speech even though giving the facade of a conservative. It is true genius. Colbert's interviewing style is easily the most entertaining I have ever seen. I will say that he is a little unfair, because while he usually is in character with the support of his crowd and is able to say outlandishly, foolish things without reproach, he then flips sides and will attack with reality. It isn't really fair to do both. Either way, it makes for great television. The show is really perfect for Colbert, who has been able to constantly sell this character for near seven years now without ever seeming like he was doing schtick that didn't land. I don't rely on the Report for actual news like the Daily Show, but if I want to laugh more, I'm going with the acolyte over the master.

7.) Curb Your Enthusiasm (Trending Up)

In almost the exact same form of the show coming up next, Curb has rebounded with two really strong seasons back-to-back after a small lull in the middle (for me, it was S5-6). Curb has become more pointed and obnoxious of a show in its later years than it was in the beginning (which was truly just about the audacity and eccentricity of Larry David), but no less funny. I do miss Cheryl, as she was always a great foil for Larry, but single Larry David has really been a great creation, and introduced a new angle to the show, where we can see Larry screw up relationships in a myriad of ways. To this day, I am shocked that most of the dialogue the viewer sees is improvised, but it makes for such realistic speech. I love how Curb has become almost a yardstick to measure how famous you are. Mostly, the actors that get to play themselves are people who are actually comedy friends of Larry's (the Seinfeld cast, Rosie O'Donnell and of course, Richard Lewis), but the real test of fame in hollywood to me is if you get to play yourself on Curb, like Ted Danson, John McEnroe, Ricky Gervais or even Michael Yorke, while seeing who has to play a character. All credit deservedly goes to the genius that is Larry David (who I think people now realize was a far bigger part of Seinfeld than most originally thought) who showed not only how to break the Seinfeld curse, but gave us a real Seinfeld finale.

6.) It's Always Sunny in Philadelphia (Trending Up)

It's time to stop kidding around, Always Sunny is the best basic cable sitcom ever, and it is not close. It is already the longest running cable sitcom, and is contracted for at least two more years. It is also far more groundbreaking than it is given credit for. What Rob McElhenny, Glenn Howerton and Charlie Day did was basically beat the system. These three unsuccessful actors decided that instead of auditioning for roles, they would create their own show. Currently, the people that get to star in their own show is not a very long list, and it is generally given to people that were far more successful than these three (Larry David, Ricky Gervais, Louis CK). FX showed incredible trust and foresight in giving these three goons a show, and man have they repaid FX times over. Always Sunny also had a dip in Season 4-5, but has rebounded with a strong Season 6 and a really good Season 7. They may be pushing some of the characters (Charlie has become a bit dumber, Dennis a lot more sociopathic) but the general tone remains. Also, they almost seamlessly integrated a new central cast member with Danny DeVito, and that has been magic. I bet Chevy Chase is so upset that he gets saddled with Pierce, while Danny DeVito has the time of his life portraying Frank Reynolds. McElhenny, Howerton and Day are really all geniuses as they have basically created a comedy machine. The show is so much smarter than it is given credit for, lampooning and satirizing so many aspects of the world with great takes on the mortgage crisis, American Idol, the movie Invincible, the movie Million Dollar Baby, the healthcare system, Facebook, municipal politics, gay marriage, the modern music industry. It is a show so much more than just five idiots screaming at each other, and I hope it has a long life ahead of it.

5.) Tough Crowd with Colin Quinn

I believe that this is the show that was on the air the shortest amount of time of any on the list, and other than mediocre-quality Youtube videos, it is inaccessible, but it was brilliant. I actually think that along with the show at #1, this was a show that would do so much better today, where comedians are becoming more marketable than ever. There were so many things to love about Tough Crowd, from the great chemistry between Colin and the regulars (Patrice O'Neal, Greg Giraldo, Jim Norton and Nick DiPaolo), but here are my top three: 1 - how merciless the cast and Colin was to anyone who came with prepared stuff and written lines, 2 - how Colin Quinn fought to keep jokes that bombed on the final cut, as proof that comedians aren't always perfect in joke delivery, 3 - how it was the one comedy show to feature prominent conservatives. Quinn was more of a true independent, but Jim Norton and Nick DiPaolo were unabashed conservatives. Neither was fully a Bush supporter, but they were able to cut through a lot of the BS of the left at the time. The show was cut because Comedy Central thought it was too controversial and they were already dealing with a racially controversial show in Chappelle's Show and a political one in The Daily Show, and wanted Colin Quinn to cut back to mostly pop-culture topics. Colin, thankfully, gave Comedy Central a "Fuck You" to that request, and the show died with its legitimacy and honor in tact. (The greatest irony is that it was replaced essentially by The Colbert Report). I implore anyone watching to check out Tough Crowd and see smart comedians just sit down and be funny with each other (and the ones that aren't funny get torn apart by those that are), and also to watch Patrice O'Neal and Greg Giraldo (not to mention Jim David and Todd Lynn) at their best before their demise. The foundation of the show is so strong that I have no doubt it would have succeeded if it started today.

The Last Four really are a cut above, my personal Mt. Rushmore of Comedy on TV.

4.) The Daily Show with Jon Stewart

The Greatest example of political news satire, the Daily Show keeps churning along 15 years later (12 with Stewart). Jon has gone from a wiry, brown haired 30-something, to a gray-haired man pushing 50, and the show has become more serious and thoughtful (particularly the interviews) but it is still the best example of smart comedy. To me, there is no shame to say that you get a lot of your news out from the Daily Show. It presents the real news, to real stories, and tears them apart. Jon Stewart's stable of correspondents is so deep that even the newer ones that are talented (Al Madrigal, Jessica Williams) seem lost compared to the brilliance of the established vets (Jon Oliver - who I can't believe doesn't have his own show now, Jason Jones, Sam Bee, Aasif Mandvi, Wyatt Cenac). His show has been a breeding ground for comedy gold (Colbert, Carrell and even lesser known names like Rob Riggle, Rob Corrdry, Ed Helms, Mo Rocca, Matt Walsh). Stewart effortlessly uses these other talents that surround him to create a show that isn't so much about him but by him. Unlike Colbert, Jon Stewart really highlights the idiocracy rampant in Washington (and in America in general even outside the realm of politics). There is a reason Stewart will win that 'Best Variety Show' Emmy until he finally retires (hopefully around 2030) and that is because the Daily Show is, essentially, perfect.

3.) Chappelle's Show

Here's another show that would have found even more success had it been airing today, but my God, was Chappelle's Show just incredibly brilliant in every way. Nothing tore down racial, political, economic and stylistic barriers like Chappelle's Show. I feel like it gets unfairly pegged as a show that fed off of racial tensions and racial differences, but so many memorable sketches were so far away from racial comedy. Chappelle's Show was just pure genius at every level, from small hilarious plot items like Prince being good at basketball and serving waffles, to the juxtaposition of the Wu-Tang Clan and businessmen, to the stupidity of The Real World or Making the Band. Chappelle, though, was at his best when the conversation did stick to race, but not about the prevalence of race in America, but just the general difference between black and white. Black Bush, the Special Edition of Law & Order, Wife Swap, these were more about the different life experiences of black adn white America, and it was all hilarious. But there were times where Chappelle took the "easy" way and just riffed and random shit, like his "When Keeping it Real Goes Wrong" or "A Moment in the life of Li'l John" or a personal favorite where Chappelle owns a cancer-stricken kid in street hoops. Obviously, it is painful that Dave walked away from Chappelle's Show (both this and Tough Crowd ended withing months of each other - I have a feeling if Comedy Central was running Tough Crowd and Chappelle along with TDS and Colbert today, it would be a Comedy power-house) but he left 23 episodes (and hours of extended scenes that are all great) of pure genius. Chappelle's Show was the best sketch show ever, even over SNL at its best, and it really isn't all that close.

2.) Seinfeld

The two biggest reasons for me placing Seinfeld over Curb is that Seinfeld did it for longer, and more times a year (22-24 episodes a season against just 10) and did it without cursing and censors, and Seinfeld was just as funny. The show did change a bit without Larry David in its last three seasons, but that was going from an A to an A-. The four main characters were so well defined, and contrasted so well with each other. Elaine might be one of the funniest female sitcom characters ever. Kramer is probably the best eccentric/quirky sitcom character, and no one I have ever seen does physical comedy like Michael Richards. Of course, George Costanza was brilliant in every way, a more depressed, more cynical, more bombastic version of Curb's Larry David. That said, what made Seinfeld truly special were the other characters, with Newman, Mr. and Mrs. Costanza, Susan, Puddy, and all the other supporting characters all being well cast and written. It was also such a great topical show, creating more phrases than any other show I have ever seen ('master of your domain' being my favorite). What Seinfeld really excelled at was in no small part because the main cast was just four deep, keeping the four together and letting them play off of each other, which was always so good. Another subtle thing I loved about Seinfeld is that the characters laughed, a lot. Too many times in Friends or other shows did the characters never laugh at each other. That was never a problem with Seinfeld. It took me a while to truly appreciate how brilliant it was, but I don't think there will ever be a traditional sitcom to top Seinfeld.

1.) Arrested Development

I debated if it merited number one over Seinfeld mainly because Seinfeld did it for a lot longer than Arrested Development, but really, I just haven't seen anything close to Arrested Development in terms of all-encompassing comedy. It could play straight comedy, physical comedy, puns, references, meta-moments and layers of satire, while adding visual gags. Watching Arrested Development was really like going on a treasure hunt for jokes, and they were often subtle, hidden and needed repeat viewings the unearth. A lot of why this worked was that even when all this crazy was going on, the cast kept it all natural. The cast in its entirety was so good at keeping all of the dialogue and situations mixed with the plausibility of reality. Another thing I really have grown to admire in Arrested Development, especially when contrasted with Community, is that it had a cast with 9 main characters (10 if you count Oscar from Season 2) and really shared air-time and storylines between all nine pretty evenly. Community has found in increasingly hard to service seven characters. Arrested Development made it look easy (and made fun of itself when it failed to, with Michael qupping "I feel like I haven't seen her" when Maebe was brought up in the 3rd episode of Season 2 after appearing infrequently in the first two episodes). In truth, Arrested Development made everything look easy, from writing, to casting, to directing, to pacing. It is The Wire of comedies, in that it did everything you can ever ask from a comedy program and did it all pretty close to perfect. I guess the only knock is that there were no affecting emotional bits in the show's run, but at its foundation, it was a comedy. It's job was to make us laugh, and not only did it do that, but Arrested Development made us think as well.