It;s hard to believe he lasted nine years to begin with - in all honesty, the Grigson years seemed way longer than they actually were (just six seasons). For a few years, it was understandable why Ballard would keep his job. The Colts rarely bottomed out, except for the disastrous 2022 season (3-12-1) which I still don't know how Ballard survived. They then drafted Anthony Richardson at #4, in retrospect a diasstrous pick that was a huge gamble at the time. Somehow despite him being a bust, they went 9-8 and 8-9 over the next two seasons - not bad enough to get rid of. Then they went 8-2 to start last year, the best record in teh NFL at that tine, before Daniel Jones tore his achilles and they lost the last seven games. Another disaster. He only kept his job because after Jim Irsay's death, new owner Callie Irsay didn't yet want to change anything. Anyway, change is finally coming to Indianapolis.
I talk about that 2022 season because it was instructive in the fact it absolutely should have been the end of Ballard. It was his third straight season bringing in a veteran QB without a long shelf life. It worked with Philip Rivers in 2020 (a somewhat miracle 11-5 season), but then didn't with Carson Wentz, but the Colts still started 9-6 before Wentz absoluteyl went on a Wentzian bender the last two gaems (we will return to this). Then in 2022 they went with Matt Ryan, when he was absolutely already broken. They cratered, they did weird stuff like hire Jeff Saturday (admittedly, absolutely a Jim Irsay decision). They could've cut bait there - it had been six years with two playoff appearances and a four win season. It would have been so easy.
Hell, it would have been easier the year before when teh Colts lost in Week 18 to a 2-14 Jaguars team when a win would have won them the division. They lost in embarrassing fashion. Wentz took the blame. Somehow, despite an outcry from the fanbase, no one else did. ANd there liest the weird inconsistency of being annoyed of a team being for once quite patient. No one ever is in the NFL, but the Colts and Irsay were to a fault. It might be that Ballard was good in teh room (by all accounts he was very well liked in the community and building). It might be the contineud Chiefs success had some weird afterglow on Ballard who was around for the very beginning of the Reid era (though notably not when Mahomes was drafted). For whatever reason he did, and we were left with this crazy never-ending run of mediocrity.
The problems with Ballard were self evident and critical in terms of blockers for success. Namely, after inheriting Andrew Luck and then losing him, he was never able to find an answer at QB. You can say he got unlucky that Rivers retired after one year, but he was not unlucky that Wentz was scatterbrained, or Ryan was laundry, and his big bet on Anthony Richardson was a massive failure. He also spent a lot of resources on receivers and defensive lineman but other than Michael Pittman, seemed to have no ability to actually scout those positions. Guys like Laitu Latu and Kwity Paye are fine depth pieces - they were prime 1st or 2nd round picks. And then of course Ballard's obsession with guards - yes Quenton Nelson is a likely HOFer, but HOF guards by themselves don't do too much.
Ballard was in many ways an even more of a "don't want to talk about Star Wars Numbers" than Ryan Grigson was - Grigson was not a success but was in many ways still somewhat forward looking. He overspent in free agency, but generally targeted prominent positions (other than the Trent Richardson trade... that one I will never get). Ballard was just dull - for years the critique was not spending despite cap room. He never did spend other than on extension for non prominent positions. He just never adapted to 2020s NFL, and it fianlly caught up to him.
Likely it catches up to Steichen to, but tehre is a world where he is a good play-caller that has been just blocked by bad personnel (helps when the Eagles offense has never been the same after he left). Likely he gets fired at the end of the season, but I do see a world where maybe he can make a case for his job. The real end goal though is a turning of the page - hopefully Callie Irsay knows what she is doing, but she almost undoubtedly does more than her dad did towards the end. Hoepfully she knows what works in the NFL in 2026 and finds someone who can lead that vision. Ballard wans't the guy, and the national (in Indy, at least) nightmare is finally over.
