2012 MLB Predictions: The AL

I didn't have a lot of time to do a more thorough preview of the MLB season that technically started last week in Japania, but is starting earnestly tonight (and in reality, tomorrow) with the defending World Champion St. Louis Cardinals going to the Miami Marlins and their new ball-park. Anyway, the biggest headlines this upcoming season are probably limited to two:

1.) The AL is loaded. The top four in teh AL East will probably all finish over .500, and the top three have a shot at winning 90 games. The top two in the AL West might be the two best teams in baseball.

2.) There are two wild cards. This makes predicting the playoffs a lot more fun, and makes the playoffs even that much more of a, no pun intended, wildcard. The playoffs can go anywhere with two teams playing one game to enter the real playoffs after playing 162.

Anyway, let's get to the predictions. I've decided to add predictions of wins as well. Hopefully this goes better than my predictions for last year, which other than the Brewers making the ALCS, I got almost completely wrong (I picked the Chicago White Sox to win the World Series, which is about as embarrassing as it gets). The AL is up first.



AL East


1.) Tampa Bay Rays - 97-65 (1)

I think they are loaded. This might be the best iteration of the Rays over the last five years. Their pitching staff is as deep as ever, and their top guys are dead-set in their prime now, with James Shields and David Price leading it. If Matt Moore is close to what people think he will be in 2012, the Rays have six legit starters (those three, and Wade Davis, Jeremy Hellickson and Jeff Neimann). That is a real six-deep rotation (unlike the Red Sox last year). Their ages: 30, 26, 24, 22, 26, 29 Their ERA+: 132, 107, 127, 134, 94, 92. Their line-up is good but not great, but I think there is a chance they really come on this year. Evan Longoria is healthy, and could really take his game to the next level. BJ Upton is somehow now underrated (as in he is what he is, and what he is, is still tremendously valuable) and the fact that he is in a contract year could push his numbers up. Overall, I really like where this team is at.



2.) New York Yankees - 93-69 (5)

It's not that I see the Yankees as really falling off, but I don't like the fact that their hitters are all a year older (in particular, Jeter, A-Rod and Teixeira). A-Rod's elongated path towards old age is well documented, but as a refresher here's his OPS+ over the past five years in order: 176-150-138-123-116. However, what is a little more unreported is Teixeira's drop over the past four years: 152-141-124-117. Granderson probably won't have that great of a year again. That said, I can see Robby Cano having a bounce-back year and I loved the pickup of Hiroki Kuroda (a criminally underrated player). CC Sabathia's second half of 2011 scares me, but they have depth of average and/or young pitching, which is all they need. Plus, the Yankees have one of the best bull-pens with Robertson and Boone Logan, and Mariano Rivera, who will undoubtedly have sub-2.00 ERA's until 2015.



3.) Boston Red Sox - 90-72

I love the line-up in theory. Adrian Gonzalez is awesome. There is some concern over his power drop over the 2nd half, but supposedly it was injury related and now he is healthy. Dustin Pedroia had a really nice year. David Ortiz will probably fall off (hard to keep up the trend of 101-134-151 OPS over the past three years) as he gets older. I think Carl Crawford almost assuredly playing better is offset by Jacoby Ellsbury almost assuredly not having that power year again. I think it is safe to look at Ellsbury's 2011 like Mauer's 2009 in terms of power. I'll wait to see him repeat it before I think it is lasting. What really sets me off about the Red Sox is they did nothing to fix their pitching. Beckett-Lester-Buchholz is a nice top-three, but if one of those gets hurt (pretty likely) there is no depth. Their 4th starter right now is Doubrount, and their fifth is a converted closer. That won't get it done in a deep division.



4.) Toronto Blue Jays - 84-78

I give them one more season before they pass the Red Sox (and a couple more until they pass the Yankees). Their pitching is still filled with young arms. I like Brandon Morrow to have a break-out season. His peripherals are all much better than his ERA (K/9, K/BB, WHIP) and he could easily have a great year. Ricky Romero is a very good pitcher who could get even better. The Jays have a good bullpen with Santos, Casey Jannsen and others. Their hitting is good and could be great. Jose Bautista is the best hitter in the AL over the past two seasons. Brett Lawrie is a future star. Colby Rasmus will finally get to play every day since he's been freed from the shackles of LaRussa. I think they are well positioned in the future, and should straddle .500 once again.



5.) Baltimore Orioles -70-92

One more win! Progress! In reality, the Orioles could be quite a bit better than last year and not see that reflected in their w-l given the strength of their division and the AL in general. Their pitching is still mostly awful, but reports are that Brian Matusz's velocity is back, and that probably equates to him being considerably better than one of the worst starters in baseball. Their line-up is decent, with six regulars with OPSes above 100. Vlad will probably decline out of that group, but the rest (Hardy, Weiters, Jones, Reynolds, Markakis) are all steady. Weiters could continue to break out and fulfill all that promise and hype. Help is on the way, though, with Dylan Bundy and Manny Machado a year away.


AL Central

1.) Detroit Tigers - 93-69

The best team in the AL Central outperformed its expectation last year in terms of their pythagoreon record. It added Fielder, but lost V-Mart, which given V-Marts numbers last year and Fielder switching to the AL, could be closer to a wash than most people think. The key with the Tigers is that they had a lot of people have career years in 2011 that would be hard to match. Obviously, there is Verlander. I have no doubt he's great, but chances are he won't be 24-5 with a 2.40 ERA and a 170 ERA+ over 250 innings again. Their bull-pen was filled with guys that had career years, like Jose Valverde (chances he blows zero saves again are less than zero) and Jaquin Benoit. Their depth in the rotation is an issue as well, as Fister won't repeat his numbers with the Tigers and the rest aren't all that great. That all said, most of that explanation was to convince you why they won't win 100 games. The Tigers are in the worst division in the AL, and should cruise to the division title.


2.) Cleveland Indians - 77-85

I think teams 2-4 will all be interchangeable, but overall I like the Indians. I don't know if their peak with the current crew is that much higher (unlike the team next) but I think it is a safe bet they get just short of .500. Ubaldo should be better with a full year in Cleveland than the numbers he put up in his time there in 2011, and Justin Masterson is a nice complement. Their lineup features four good hitters. Hafner's resurgence over the past three years is nice, but he's about at the age where a decline could come quickly. Carlos Santana is a future star and could get better, and the Indians will also get the luxury of most likely more than half a season from Shin-Soo Choo. Jason Kipnis could be a surprise with a full-time role. Finally, I like the Derek Lowe signing. I don't think they've improved from last year's already inflated record of 80-82, but I don't see a harsh fall back to reality.


3.) Kansas City Royals - 77-85

They can sure hit. Alex Gordon is finally doing something. He might have had the quietest breakout season ever. One could look at it as a fluke, but with someone who always had talent, it probably is just a representation of his peak. He probably won't get too much better than his 2011 given that Gordon is already 28, but I don't see a return to his injury-plagued form of 2009-2010. Billy Butler has been consistently very good over the past three seasons, and still young at 26, he could get better. Miek Moustakas, I feel, was rushed to the majors but with more time probably will improve. Finally, there is Eric Hosmer. A 118 OPS+ (.293/.334/.465) slash as a 21-year old ain't too bad. He's the star of the group. Wil Myers might get called up at sometime, and that is intriguing. Their pitching simply isn't worth talking about.


4.) Chicago White Sox - 75-87

My awful pick for the 2011 World Series slots in at number four with the team doing worse than last year. The offense has a lot of guys that are in the "it is hard to do any worse" camp, like Adam Dunn, Gordon Beckham and Alex Rios, but that is partially offset by having Paul Konerko almost guaranteed to decline. I don't like the White Sox pitching either. In the rotation is just a bunch of league average guys (Floyd, Danks, Humber) and they lost Buehrle. Guys like Chris Sale and Addison Reed could be good prospects, but their impact is definitely questionable. Going from Ozzie to Ventura will be a dramatic change on that team. I'm just not sure I like where they are right now.


5.) Minnesota Twins - 65-97

The cupboard is bare. The Twins are just beginning to enter into what the A's entered in 2007 (a prolonged period of mediocrity, or worse, after a long stretch of success). Mauer will probably be better, and Morneau has to be, but the team is just lacking impact on offense beyond those two. the pick-up of Josh Willingham is a nice move. He's been a starter for 6 years, and he's got a .838 OPS (121 OPS+) over that stretch. Really underrated guy. That said, they lost Michael Cuddyer who was always a consistent cog. Their pitching is just a mess. The Twins have basically four guys between 27 and 29 that are all basically the same (except for Liriano - who had an awful year in 2011 anyway). Slow fastball, pitch-to-contact guys that rely on the Twins defense. They can all either improve and regress, but probably offset each other. Sad times for a team who finally got a stadium that was worthy of their gallant play from 2002-2010.


AL West

1.) Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - 96-66 (2)

Where to start with the most intriguing team of the AL. Obviously, they added Albert Pujols. Sure, he's supposedly 32 and coming off of his worst season as a pro, but that season improved greatly over the second half. Going to the AL could be an issue, but it wouldn't shock me to see Pujols at least repeat his 2011 numbers, which for 99% of the MLB populous wouldn't be all that bad. Trumbo probably won't have that type of year (and a sub-.300 OBP is not going to cut it much longer), but having a full season of Kendrys Morales is definitely a boost this team has been missing. When he went down for the first time in May 2010, Kendrys was arguably a top-5 hitter in the AL. Howie Kendrick had another nice solid year. Then, let's get to the pitching. No team has a better 1-4 than the Angels. The ace is probably Jered Weaver, who happens to be the best pitcher in the AL over the past two seasons. Dan Haren is the #2 and has been one of the best control pitchers for years, leading the league in SO/BB three of the last four seasons. Ervin Santana is above league average, and he is the number 4. CJ Wilson is a great #3, and he's now going to more a pitchers park than with the Rangers. Man, just imagine if Nick Adenhart never passed, what a great 1-5 this would be.


2.) Texas Rangers - 95-67 (4)

The Rangers only real loss in the offseason was CJ Wilson, but Yu Darvish could easily replace that production if he's close to what he was in Japan. Their offense is still very good, but there are age questions. Adrian Beltre is unlikely to put up numbers that good again as his prime comes to a close, and Mike Napoli almost definitely won't have that type of year again. The rest of their hitters are all in constant bands of production, with their other regulars all with  OPS+ between 87 (Elvis Andrus - who makes up with that with speed and defense) and 128 (Hamilton, who given his recent trend of alternating good seasons with awesome ones could be great in 2012. The Rangers pitching is still deep with guys who would all be solid #3s in Colby Lewis, Alexi Ogando, Matt Harrison and Derek Holland, with those last two still young and good enough to break out. Of course, there's Neftali Feliz as potentially a starter. I'm skeptical how that will work, because at least as  a closer he didn't seem to have the repertoire to be a starter.


3.) Seattle Mariners - 70-92

The Mariners have a lot of candidates to either have break-out years or bounce-back years. First the break-out of both Dustin Ackley, Justin Smoak and Jesus Montero. Ackley and Montero are both possible stars, with Ackley a newer version of Michael Young and Montero a guy who could be a star with the bat. Ichiro is probably a better bet to bounce-back than to continue his decline. Their pitching is suddenly a possible weakness (Felix Hernandez excluded who had a 'down' 2011 - 111 ERA+ - after incredible 2009-2010 seasons - 172-174 ERA+ -  but it still just 26 and entering his prime) after trading Pinieda and Fister over the past 10 months, but their pitching will always perform well in that beautiful ballpark of theirs. They don't have the caliber of players of the top two, but aren't all that far off - at least in terms of top-end talent, with depth being another issue altogether.


4.) Oakland Athletics - 66-96

This is Billy Beane's plan. He wants to bottom out. They went on a relative fire-sale this offseason trading both Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill for a load of prospects that will all really begin to help Oakland by 2014 (Jarrod Parker, Gerrit Cole, Derek Norris). This has left the A's really bare in terms of major-league talent. Seth Smith was a nice acquisition for them, and Manny Ramirez may provide some benefit after he serves his suspension, but their offense is just awful. The surprise signing of Yeonis Cespedes is another move for 2014, not 2012. This is all fine. The A's want a new ball-park and unlike, say the Twins, they are building to be good when that ballpark comes. It may be some time from now, but Billy Beane has a plan.


AL Playoffs


AL Wild Card Round - Yankees 4 @ Rangers 6

The Rangers don't really have a front-line pitcher to throw at the Yankees (again, assuming Yu Darvish is not the next Fernando Valenzuela as a rookie), but they have a bull-pen that can hold down the Yankees. Obviously, this is completely random (like all playoff picks in baseball) so I really don't need to give a whole explanation.


ALDS (1) Angels over (4) Rangers  3 games to 2 & (2) Rays over (3) Tigers 3 games to 1

This can be an epic first round series, but I see the Angels slightly better pitching taking it. The Angels have the better premium pitchers, and the Rangers depth and bull-pen is less meaningful in such a short series. As for the Rays, they have the better pitching and arguably as good of an offense (certainly deeper 1-9).


ALCS (1) Angels over (2) Rays 4 games to 2


What pitching matchups we could see in this. Shields vs. Weaver. Price vs. Haren. Moore vs. Wilson. The best two pitching teams in the AL might even neutralize the bats in the series as well. I like the Angels because I think in each one of those pitching matchups, they have a slight advantage (the Rays definitely have better pitchers after the top-4 but that doesn't matter in the playoffs).


AL Champion: Los Angeles Angels

The Wire: Top 50 Characters - #4-1

(Part 1 - #50-37)
(Part 2 - #36-24)
(Part 3 - #23-11)
(Part 4 - #10-5)

I should say that I started this well before Grantland's 32-person bracket for the Wire. I disagreed with a lot of their seedings, but their voted Final-4 was the same as mine. I'll say this, my Final-2 and ultimate #1 are different. I'm not jumping on the "Omar is the Greatest Thing Ever" bandwagon. Anyway, let's finish this off.


4.) Jimmy McNulty




Oh, Jimmy. That damn likable bastard. He's the definition of a character who does a lot of hateable, awful shit but is truly charming enough to make people forget about him. While in a vacuum, all of his intentions were to actually do police-work, when studied in actuality, it was, as he admitted late in S1, to show just how brilliant he was. There was a reason everyone that was above him grew to hate him. He was disloyal to everyone except seemingly Bunny Colvin. He fought with Rawls and Burrell, but so did everyone else, but he also used Daniels, Lester and Carver and thought nothing of it. He drank himself into oblivion and slept with anything. Yet through it all, it was nearly impossible to not root for Jimmy McNulty. It was easy to call Elena McNulty an unfair bitch for trying to squeeze as much alimony and custody away from our Jimmy, but also truly easy to see why she was right. It was easy to call Bill Rawls an ass for putting McNulty on the boat, but also truly easy to see why the fact that McNulty would use him and Judge Phelan as pawns for his own benefit would be maddening. Jimmy McNulty was far from a good person, but he was a great character.

I didn't know until about halfway through S1 that Dominic West (who plays Jimmy) was British - something he shares with the actor of man #3. Looking back, that accent really comes through a lot early in S1, and what I thought was overly-drastic mouth movements when speaking was really just a way for him to get out words in a Bawlmer accent, but it does make West's performance all the more impressive. What really made his job, and the writer's job, that much more impressive was he so easily played a character that played hop-scotch with the ideas of good and bad, but seemed to only skirt those differences. Jimmy McNulty did some really reprehensible things like go behind his boss's back at every turn, or drive drunk and crash his car and then sleep with the seedy waitress (4:50). This extended to his police-work like the entirety of his S5 idea of faking a serial killer. However, it was easy to write that off as him being the lesser of so many evils. The fact that he really wasn't all that much better than those other evils made his character that much more interesting.

Jimmy McNulty was also really, really funny. Probably no scene better showed this then when he was supposed to go to the prostitute's room to catch them, but since the other police took too long, they opened the door to him having a threesome. His ability to charm anyone, whether it be Elena, Rhonda Pearlman, Beadie Russell, or even Teresa D'Agostino, without much ability, but also put all of them off the next day? That was gold. Jimmy McNulty was the perfect fun-loving cop. He was smart as all hell, but never missed out that he had, when finished with the political bullshit, a fun job. He wanted to catch the bad guys. He wanted to lock Stringer up, to never feel the sense that he was outsmarted. He just wasn't aware enough that he himself was a bad guy, a combative, abrasive man that would eventually turn on anyone.

Memorable Quotes:

"What the Fuck did I do?",  "Honestly, I was looking for someone who cared about the kid. You're the one who made him take the years, right?", "You disappoint me String, I had such high hopes for us" (1:33), "Motherfuckers come to me and say, 'It's a new day, Jimmy.' Talkin' shit about how it's gonna change. Shit never fuckin' changes.", "Marlo's an asshole. He doesn't get to win. I get to win."


3.) Stringer Bell



Where to begin. Where to fucking begin. How many memorable moments? How many memorable speeches? How many memorable instances of trying to be a businessman in a Gangsta's world. Stringer Effin Bell. He might deserve to be a bit higher, but this is my list. I loved the character as a study. As just a character, he might have been the most brilliantly constructed - a man, who as Avon characterized perfectly, "Not street enough for this here, and maybe, just maybe, not smart enough for those out there." Stringer was smart. Stringer was the smartest man inside the game. He just wasn't smart enough outside of the game. He was a true businessman. He understood from McNulty, that there is a future in this game that didn't involve bodies, but just business. He wanted to be what the Greek was. Above it all. Just pushing good product around good territory, and let everyone get along while the fiends get high. He just wasn't sentient enough, or in reality, gangster enough, to see that The Game without those externalities of bodies and wars over territory was not The Game. Taking the hitting out of football leaves you with something exciting (flag football with final scores of 80-70), but not based in reality. Taking violence and ego out of The Game leaves you with more peace and cash, but is even further not based in reality. Stringer never understood this. Avon did. Stringer wanted to work in a world where the bottom-line was more important than one's name and reputation.

I never realized how strained the Avon-Stringer relationship was back even in S1 until I went back and watched it. Knowing how it would all ultimately end, it becomes more apparent earlier on that these two just had opposite views on where their organization was going. They both wanted money, but Avon wanted wealth. Stringer just wanted to have cash. Stringer wanted to be a CEO of a bank, a nameless individual with more cash than is truly imagineable. Avon wanted to be CEO of a record label, or a network. He wanted all that money, but in a place of power. Anyway, I'll talk more about Avon when we get to him. This is supposed to be about Stringer Bell.

What The Wire taught us early on was just how meticulous a drug kingpin needed to be. Stringer was always able to think about security and trace his steps at a moments notice. He was able to see that the cops were on to the pager and payphone system, so he was able to have the foresight to break the payphones in the pit. He saw that the cops would eventually break through the system of burners, so he meticulously made sure Bernard would get a maximum of two phones in stops all over Virginia and Maryland. He was a true boss of a business, down to keeping tabs on how many tenths of a mile Bodie drove his car to make sure he followed instructions. However, it was his belief that a legitimate business, that life outside The Game, would straight is what killed him. He thought the games and the thievery was limited to the drugs, but couldn't see that these same games were being played in broad daylight. It was his vulnerability, his naivete to this point that allowed him to be such an easy target to Clay Davis's long-con in S3, the start of his downfall. He wasn't ready to believe that the world he thought himself above (The Game) was so much like the world he aspired to be in (legitimate business). The only place he was truly at home was that copy-shop, where he could make sure a business was run as cleanly as he ran his life.

Memorable Quotes:

"That's like a 40 degree day. Nobody got nuttin' to say about a 40 degree day. 50? bring a smile to your face. 60? Shit, niggas damn near barbecuing. 20?  Niggas get they bitch on. But 40? Nobody give a FUCK about 40. And ya niggas are giving me way too many 40 degree days.", "We done worryin' about territory. What corner we got. The Game ain't about that anymore, the game about product. Product, muthafuckers. Product", "What is that?... Nigga, is you taking notes on a fucking criminal conspiracy?" (1:18), "No matter what we call heroin, it's gonna get sold. Shit is strong, we gonna sell it. Shit is weak, we gonna sell twice as much. You know why? Because a fiend, he gonna chase that shit no matter what.", "We ain't gotta dream no more, we got real shit." (1:42)


2.) Omar Little




 Oh man, the baddest mutha-fucka in Baltimore. Omar Little was a gay, clean-speaking stick-up boy. He had a code, he had morals. He never killed anyone outside the game. All of this is what defined Omar externally. It was a recipe for a memorable character, for a great character. The first time we saw Omar skillfully raid a Barksdale stash-house, and then saw him give away drugs for free to the poorest of the poor fiends, the 'Robin Hood' of 'The Game', and he did it all with his boyfriend beside him. Omar was God. He did anything he wanted against lethal competition. He would steal from the Barksdale organization, and later from Marlo Stanfield for fun, but it was his epic reaction to when he was challenged that made him all the more brilliant.

Omar Little's response to Avon's crew torturing Brandon showed the dark side of Omar Little. The side that would stop at nothing, including involving people unconnected to the terror of the Barksdale crew, to hit back. His cat and mouse game with Marlo and Chris Partlow was even more inspired, vindictive and destructive, to even Omar himself. He wouldn't survive that feud, but he died at the hands of a child and an environment he basically created. He became a mythological figure, a fake hero, a man to be respected and admired, and it was one of those kids, those people who knew the external beauty of Omar Little, but didn't understand the internal conflict, that offed him. Omar Little was way more complex than a broad gay stick-up artist who was against cursing.

Omar Little has been mythologized even in the real world. He's most people's consensus best character, and although it makes perfect sense, I feel like too many people focus on the smooth talking, the hilarious lines, the great attitude and what Omar represented. Of course, the beauty of the character, and almost every character on The Wire. It was his almost openly defiant way his lifestyle contrasted in The Game. In a world of Men, who was proudly gay. In a world that identified with 'Fuck Da Police' he spoke to the police all the time. But he knew that he wasn't perfect. He wasn't Robin Hood, and he might not even have been good. He knew in his heart that he was still a worker in The Game, that he needed it, that he fed off it, that he didn't do anything to stop it. That he wasn't a perfect role model, that he was just a man who wouldn't scare.

Top 10 Omar Quotes:

10.) "Tell the boss-man that you-know-who-it-is dropped Savino last night. You tell that man I'm going to drop all his muscle till he got the heart to come down to the street and dance."

9.) "Omar like it simple... Joe, I need you to resist your natural inclination to anything twisted up here in this play."

8.) "If I had known I'd be sharing quarters with all these boys, I probably wouldn't have robbed a lot of them"

7.) "I don't know about cards, but I think these .45's beat a full house. Banker, cash me out, yo"

6.) "Worryin' about you like worryin' if the sun gonna come up. Ain't about to wile out about it... and even at this range, if I miss, I can't miss"


5.) "Boy, you got me confused with a man who repeats himself" (same clip as #7, just further in)

4.) "A man gotta have a code."

3.) "It's all in the game." (Same clip as #8, but near the end)

2.) "Just like you man... I got the shotgun... you got the briefcase... it's all in the game though, right?"

1.) "Ay, Yo. Lesson here Bey: You come at the King, you best not miss"


1.) Avon Barksdale




Nothing encompassed The Wire quite like its original king, Avon Barksdale. Introduced early almost as a mythological figure that was heard but never seen (it took nearly half the season for any member of the original detail to get a real look at him), Avon grew into arguably the greatest example of the blurry lines between black and white on the show. I think most characters generally fall into the 'good' and 'bad' camps. Of course, the good have traits of bad people (Jimmy's alcoholism and womanizing) and the bad have traits of good (Stringer's business sense and true desire for non-violent drug trade), but Avon might have come the closest to the true axis. He's the 'zero-level' the man that who was a good person controlling a bad world. His largest bad trait was that he was a drug kingpin, that he made money off the dependence of fiends whose lives were already on the fast-track to an unmarked grave. That said, everything else that Avon Barksdale stood for were traits common among all heroes.

Avon was about loyalty and family. He inherited his position through his family. Everything Avon was - with the power, the legacy, the reputation, was due to his family, and he knew this and paid them back. He hosted charity dinners. He gave out good jobs to people in his family. He loved every member of his crew. His loyalty even beyond his family was special. Avon knew that his line of work wasn't what made him a man, that the values he believed in made him a man. When Cutty wanted out, told Avon that the game was not in him no more, Avon understood and let him go. Not only did he hold no ill-will toward Cutty (compare this to Marlo, who probably would have got Chris to stash Cutty behind one of those vacants), but he was cognizant enough to realize that Cutty was more of a man than most, that Cutty's honesty and self-realization was worth applauding, not demeaning. Later, Avon showed even more loyalty, when giving Cutty $15,000 straight cash to start his new gym, when Cutty himself was only asking for $10,000. (1:45) Avon gave you the sense that had Cutty asked for 50 large, Avon would have still obliged*. Cutty once gave his life to the Barksdale cause, and Avon wasn't a man who would forget.

* - There is a great Youtube comment on a clip of this scene. I can't take credit, but it is brilliant; anyway, here it is:

Avon: "10k? hell give him 15k"
Stringer: "ok 10k, but I want reciepts on everything shit's tax deductable"
Prop Joe: "I give you 20k now, but I want 20% of any of your fighter's winnings"
Marlo: " Chris get over here"

How brilliant is that?*


Avon's best scene might have been his speech to D'Angelo while standing over his comatose brother. Avon was able to realize just who he was, the situation and danger he found himself in every day, and that he owed his life to the people around him. That all of it could be taken away any day. Avon was more self-aware than any other player in The Game. When he fought with Stringer in S3 about the Marlo problem, Avon kept saying that The Game was about territory, that a non-violent Game just wouldn't work. Stringer had his more sensible idea, but Avon was always more practical. He could pinpoint early that Marlo was never going to be interested in co-ops and money, that he was interested in power; something Avon had in spades (witness him crossing the baseball field in prison and the inmates just stopping the game cold, without anyone saying a word). Avon had power and money, but he was more interested in legacy, in protecting what his people fought (and died) for in the towers, in respecting the game the way it was played and honoring those that fought in it the right way. This may have made him more close-minded than others, but nevertheless just as intriguing and in all honesty, more open and beautiful. Avon, the ultimate shade of perfect gray in a large spectrum of black and white mix.

Memorable Quotes:

"Since when do we buy corners? We take corners?... Shit, I don't think I was gonna be around this long... Yeah, I ain't no suit wearing businessman like you. I'm just a gangsta I suppose, and I want my corners!", "You know what the difference is between me and you? I bleed red, you bleed green. You know when I look at you these days, you know what I see? I see a man without a country" (0:50), "There's always gonna be a Marlo. No Marlo, no game.... Tonight, I'm just gonna kick back and see this view. Look at this shit... This is the same place. We used to run through this mutherfucker. We had every security guard in there following us... I told your ass not to steal a badtminton set. What you gonna do with a fucking net and a racket and we ain't got no yard!" (incredible scene, last with Bell & Barksdale). "He a man today. He a man.", ~FINGER WAG~ & "

Live the life, leave the life, ain't no big thang, he used to talk that shit all the time and he believed it, know what I'm sayin? Was up baby, talk that shit now. It scare you don't it? It scares me. Yeah. See, if he dead ya know I could carry it better, comin up the way we did you kind of expect that, you wait'n on it. See, the thing is you only got to fuck up once. Be a little slow, be a little late, just once. And how you ain't gonna never be slow? Never be late? You can't plan for no shit like this man, it's life. Yeah. It scares me."

Watch the Wire. It is the best 60 hours you will ever spend watching TV. Ever. It is so dramatically better than anything I have ever sen on the TV. Breaking Bad is a Hell of a Show. It is the best show currently on TV. The Wire blows it out of the water. Watch it. It is a gift.

Who's A Bust: Future Hall of Famer's Pt. 1

I did this some years ago when I just started the blog, but I'll like to forget I did. In fact, some of my choices (Kelvin Hayden???) were so horrible I'm not even going to bring them up. Anyway, you've seen this before. Many times even. Here will be my opinion on which active players deserve to be in the HOF.

Quickly, before we start on active one's, I'll take a moment to talk about the recently retired ones. The big HOF issue these days is Chris Carter, and the seemingly long time it is taking him, and other great WRs from the 1990's, to make the HOF. Chris Carter, Tim Brown and, in my opinion, to a lesser extent Andre Reed are all waiting because their most notable contemporary who has already retired was one Jerry Rice, and there are currently WRs in the NFL who put up huge numbers each year. I feel that this is seriously unfair to those guys. They were three of the five WRs in their day (Rice and Irvin being the other two). They deserve enshrinement. WR is going to be a real problem (for this excercise, I am considering Terrell Owens to be retired, whether that is the case or not). Apart from those three, Moss, Owens, Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are going to be eligible soon and they all have good cases. Some are obvious HOFers (Owens) that few will dispute, and the only way to dispute is attitude-related anectodes that are mostly bull. One is a player who should be a shoo-in, but because of his reclusiveness and the fact the Greatest QB of All Time was throwing him the ball for much of his career is being put down (Harrison). The other two played together for a number of years, but who's peaks did not really align apart from the three GSOT years. Holt probably has a stronger case, and I think most HOF voters (those mostly out-of-touch writers who care more about a player's quotability than catch rate) will probably be against putting two WRs from the same team who played together in the HOF (especially since Faulk is already in, Orlando Pace and Kurt Warner are on the way). Anyway, this is about current players.

Unlike last time, I will have four tiers. The first will be for sure fire 1st Ballot HOFers. These are the best. These are the guys that are among the six to eight best all time at their position. Their names are legendary. They could retire today and get in 1st ballot (Think Jerry Rice or Anthony Munoz). The second tier is for the guys that are basically already HOFers, but there would be some debate, some argument and they might not be 1st ballot (think Roger Staubach or Willie Brown). The third is for younger guys who are all between five to eight years of experience (there are a few instances where someone with said experience is already HOF worthy), who are well on their way. They are guys who probably have the resume of a HOF at 28, but because they are just 28 aren't there yet. They will graduate to the 2nd or possibly 1st tier in five years or so. The fourh tier is my projection tier where I just guess at which really young players (four years or less) will one day get there. This tier has the chance of being laughably, egregiously wrong come 2015. Anyway, the first post will be the offense and special teams, while the second will be the defense and coaches.


QB


1st Tier: Peyton Manning (Colts, Broncos), Tom Brady (Patriots)

Both are obvious. No point in even discussing this. I just hope they both don't retire in the same year because I wouldn't want to have a debate over who should get to be inducted last (usually given to the best player in that HOF class).


2nd Tier: Drew Brees (Chargers, Saints), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)

Yup. I think if these guys retire this year (or next) they are in. Roethlisberger is probably more polarizing than Brees at this point (which is odd given how these two were viewed in relation to each other just three years ago). Drew Brees has just finished the most exhaustively compiled 6-year stretch that any QB has ever put up (67.8% cmp, 28,394 yards, 7.7/11.4 ypa/ypc, 201 TDs, 93 INTs for a 98.5 rating - for a comparison, Manning's best six year stretch is from 2003-2008, where he put up 66.5% cmp, 25,010 yards, 8.0/12.0 ypa/ypc, 195 TDs and 65 INTs for a 102.7 rating). Brees has a Super Bowl and a Super Bowl MVP. He has the two highest completion percentage years of all time, and two of the four highest yardage totals of all time. His New Orleans era is historic. I think his down years in San Diego and his lack of team success (only three 12+ win seasons) hurts him to not get in first ballot. He's not those two above, but he's not far behind. As for Ben. Two rings. One signature Super Bowl drive (arguably the best drive in Super Bowl history). Another trip. Great postseason record (I hate that that matters, but I have to be honest, it does). Five years with a passer rating above 97 (in comparison, both Brees and Brady have just three each). He's had two 4,000 yard seasons. He's had a 30 TD season. He really has a resume that just stacks up with past HOFers.


3rd Tier: Eli Manning (Giants), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Philip Rivers (Chargers)

 

Eli Manning has two Super Bowls, like Roethlisberger, and two Super Bowl MVPs, like Brady, but he doesn't have either of their regular season success. This was by far Eli Manning's best regular season, and it would be Brady's 5th best (behind 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2011) or Roethlisberger's 4th best (behind 2005, 2007 and 2009). Eli Manning seems to have turned the corner and could have many more years close to 2011 and then he should be fine. Aaron Rodgers just had one of the top-5 passing seasons ever. He's the career leader in passer rating. He's had the best start to a career ever. The only issue is he's only had four years under his belt. Rivers has been right there with Rodgers and Brees over the past 5 years. I think he'll have a bounce back year next year. His spot as a potential HOFer is more tenuous than the other two (though numbers wise he's way ahead of Manning). He really is this generation's Dan Fouts. He might never win a Super Bowl, but that doesn't, and really shouldn't, mean he can't get to the HOF.


4th Tier: Cam Newton (Panthers)

This is a projection which could be very wrong. Obviously, the amount of variation that his career could take is massive. That said, he had the most impressive rookie season I have ever seen. He's Michael Vick but someone who is more advanced as a passer. What he did with that offense that could barely crack 20 points in 2010 was incredible. He has the pieces around him with a good o-line and two good running backs. Overall, I was really wrong about Cam Newton coming into the draft, but I think I will be less wrong about this.


RB


1st Tier: LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers, Jets)

Yeah, it is that obvious. His average season during his 9-year tenure in San Diego was the following:

320 rushes for 1,387 yrds (4.34 ypc), 15.3 rushing TDs, with 59 catches, 439 receiving yards and 1.7 receiving TDs.

That is insane. His best years in San Diego were incredible. He's the best RB I have ever seen in the 2000s. I hope the fact that he had a sad tendency to get hurt in the playoffs will be a knock against him, because he was awesome. 


2nd Tier: Adrian Peterson (Vikings)

In this era of limited one-back systems, the numbers of a RB has to be looked at differently for a HOF possibility. While WR numbers are just getting better and better, the numbers for a RB is becoming worse. Peterson is something of an anomaly. He's the primary back. Of course, the huge caveat is the injury, but I think if Peterson returns to something where he was before and puts up two to three more years of average Peterson production, he is in. In just 5 years in the league, he's already closing in on 7,000 yards with near 70 TDs. He's been the best running back overall for the entirety of his career. He's already a 2-time all-pro. I think he gets there without too much work in the future.


3rd Tier: Chris Johnson (Titans)

For CJ, it is just faith that 2011 was a flukey bad year. Sure, there is a track record of guys getting their payday and falling off, but even CJ turned it around near the end of  2011. He'll never have a year like 2009 again, but he's already on Peterson's pace. With the turn back to mostly two-back sets and the ever-continuing increase of passing the ball, running back stats are probably not going to reach the historical landmarks that merit inclusion. Runners like CJ are guys that in this era with deflated career rushing totals are a lot more credible as a HOF than people would think.


4th Tier: LeSean McCoy (Eagles), Arian Foster (Texans)

LeSean McCoy is just 23. He's become the best dual threat RB in the NFL. He had 17 rushing TDs last season, and with Michael Vick as his QBs, his rushing numbers should continue to be good for the foresee-able future. McCoy already has a 1st-Team All-Pro nod under his belt. Arian Foster is also just 23 years old, and is really underrated as a receiving threat. His running numbers have been better than anyone else over the past two years. The system he is in is perfect, as Kubiak's Texans run game has become the neo-Broncos running game from the past decade. Barring injury, he could have a great career.


WR


1st Tier: Randy Moss (49ers)

I have a feeling that he will get in 1st ballot. When motivated and healthy, he was the best WR ever. His numbers during his best years are insane. His Vikings career included two 17 TD seasons, one with 15 and one with 13 (in 13 games). Of course, his three-year run in New England was almost more ridiculous. The 23 TDs. The good season with Cassel. The nice 2009 season. Even his first year in Oakland in 2004 wasn't all that bad. He was the best QB maker in history. There's a reason why the Vikings went 15-1, 10-6 and 11-5 from 1998-2000 with three different QBs (Cunningham, George, Culpepper). He's had 1,000 yard season with65 QBs (those three plus Kerry Collins, Brady and Cassel). I've never seen a receiver so utterly dominant as Randy Moss.


2nd Tier: Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), Andre Johnson (Texans), Steve Smith (Panthers)

 

 Larry Fitzgerald has a chance to, statistically, be the 2nd greatest WR ever. I'm not putting him in Tier 1 because if he retires today, he's not 1st-ballot, and mainly because no WR seems to be these days. That said, after just 8 years, Fitzgerald has averaged 86.3 catches, 1,200 yards and 9 TDs. Limit those to just his last 5 seasons beginning with Warner's true renaissance, and it goes to 92.6 catches for 1,296 yards and 10 TDs. Last year showed with just average QBing, he could put up monster numbers. As for Andre Johnson, he had four consecutive season of at least 90 ypg. How many other players have done that? None. He's had a mix of awful to good QBing and performed throughout. The one concern is that he's only played 20 games the last two seasons. He's not as sure as Fitzgerald, but already having 5 pro-bowl nods and 2 all-pros, he's in good shape. Steve Smith is more precarious, as he's mixed insane seasons with above average ones. I think his reputation gets him in over just the numbers. At his best, he was the most uncoverable WR ever. Add to that the fact that he was short but still dominated at a tall-man's position and he really should get in. He's not always been healthy and he's never had great QB play (although that might begin to change) but his overall success is there. He also had, in my opinion, the best non-Moss-in-2007 season of any WR this decade, by being the sole weapon of note for the 2005 Panthers (103 catches, 1,563 yards, 12 TDs). Unbelievable player.


3rd Tier: Wes Welker (Dolphins, Patriots), Calvin Johnson (Lions)

Wes Welker has a couple of things really going against him. One is that he's already 30 and his numbers for his career are worse than both Fitzgerald and Andre who are younger and more dynamic. Secondly, his career yards-per-catch is just 11.1, which would be the lowest of any HOF WR. That said, he has been a catching machine with Brady. Some may fight against him because of the system, but no one has ever caught as many balls over a 5-year period as Wes Welker. This is more of a projection than Wes Welker because Calvin is younger, but that helps him a lot. He's already caught 49 TDs, and with Matt Stafford, he could be force-fed for years near the goal-line. His career average of 16.0 yards per reception is unbelievable. After an underwhelming rookie season he's been among the best over the past four years, and he's been the central figure to rebuilding the Lions. He's got a way to go, but he's definitely on the same track as Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, if a little less accomplished. But talent isn't the issue, but rather time.


4th Tier: Hakeem Nicks (Giants), Mike Wallace (Steelers)

I'm a lot more confident about Mike Wallace, but Hakeem Nicks has had a great start to his three year career. His numbers are getting better. He's Eli Manning's favorite target (I think he's better than Victor Cruz) and Eli Manning is entering a new prime of his career. Numbers will be there for Eli, and of course they will also be there for Nicks just as well. As for Mike Wallace, what's not to like. He's only 25. He's never missed a game. With a career 18.7 yards-per-reception he's the most dynamic vertical threat in the NFL, and is getting better at the short-passing game. What could be an issue is Pittsburgh seems to be thinking about moving to more run, but as long as he's paired with a good QB, he's set up great.


TE:


1st Tier: Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs, Falcons)

He's the best receiving TE in NFL history. Kellen Winslow and Ozzie Newsome and Shannon Sharpe might be nice, but Tony Gonzalez is to TEs as Jerry Rice is to WRs. He's 2nd all time in catches, and that is for any player. He's closing in on 100 TDs. If he was a WR, he might have a shot at the HOF, but he's a TE, and the best one ever.


2nd Tier: Antonio Gates (Chargers), Jason Witten (Cowboys)

After going four straight years without missing a game (2006-2009 - happened to coincide with the Chargers best four year run), Gates' body might be breaking down. If he could squeeze another two or three years at his current pace he's about as sure-fire as they get. The 13.1 yards-per-reception over his career, he's the most dynamic TE ever. 76 TDs are nice too. 8 time pro-bowler and 3 time all-pro just solidify that status. Jason Witten's case might be easier. Witten has been remarkably consistent over his career, missing just two games. After a nice start to his career with middling QBs, with Romo he's exploded into a new version of Tony Gonzalez. He's not the TD threat that Gates and Gonzalez are, but he's the Welker of receiving TEs. What separates Witten though is that he's reknowned as a great blocking TE, which is something that he has that Gonzalez and Gates does not.


3rd Tier: No One


4th Tier: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Jimmy Graham (Saints)

Honestly, after the past season for each, it is hard not to see GRONK or the blondie Jimmy Graham not making it in. They had the best and the second best receiving seasons for a TE ever. That said, they've both just played two seasons. They can easily have their careers derailed by injury, or in Gronkowski's case loss of qaulity WR (his career will undoubtedly go longer than Brady's). Another thing about Jimmy Graham is that he will be 27 next season. I have no idea how he got that old that quickly. Gronk is probably the safer bet, but again, injuries can always happen, and their total resume obviously doesn't merit inclusion yet.


OT


1st Tier: No One


2nd Tier: No One




3rd Tier: Jake Long (Dolphins), Joe Thomas (Browns) 

Since there are no stats for o-lineman (other than pancakes, which I've never heard referenced in a game), the two things most important for o-lineman are reputation (which is much harder to lose than it is to earn) and things like pro-bowls and all-pro nods. If you are on a championship team, that might outweigh having less pro-bowls. Anyway, with the Great Tackles of the 2000s out of the game (Ogden, Jones, Pace), we are left with a new era where no one is really all that close to in yet. Jake Long, in four seasons, has been to four pro-bowls and one all-pro. In give seasons, Joe Thomas has been to five pro-bowls and three all-pros. Thomas is probably on the fast track, as for Long, it's a little less sure but with the reputation that he already has, it will be hard for him not to get there eventually.


4th Tier: Joe Staley (49ers), Ryan Clady (Broncos) 

Joe Staley's been playing for 5 seasons, so he's old for this tier, but his career is really starting anew as the team is finally good. He's been a good player for years and is finally starting to get that recognition. The 49ers success has made more people aware of Joe Staley, and more pro-bowls should follow. Ryan Clady has played four seasons, never missed a game, and now gets to block for Peyton Manning. He's been named a 1st team all-pro already. The Peyton Manning thing is key, as he'll probably get closer to the spotlight in coming years. Just like Staley, the veteran's real career is just starting.


OG


1st Tier: Steve Hutchinson (Seahawks, Vikings)

His reputation may have finally started to outstrip his play, but 5 all-pro selections, as well as a 1st team all-decade gets you this lofty distinction. Walter Jones may have been slightly better, but just slightly. At his best Steve Hutchinson was absolutely dominant. With Hutch blocking for him, Shaun Alexander was one of the best running backs in the NFL. He leaves Seattle and Alexander all but turns to shit. He comes to Minnesota, and Adrian Peterson becomes the best running back in the NFL. The real best in the NFL was Hutchinson himself.


2nd Tier: Logan Mankins (Patriots), Kris Dielman (Chargers)

Logan Mankins as a 1st round pick was roundly criticized, but Bill Belichick knew what he was doing with Mankins. He's only missed one game due to injury in his career (although with ACL surgery may more be coming in 2012), and has been the best lineman for what has been among the best offense in the NFL over the past 5 years. It is commonly forgotten that Mankins came along after the Dynasty Pats, but he's been one of the three constants, along with Brady and Welker, of the juggernaut offense Pats. Kris Dielman is definitely a tough choice. I do think he will get serious consideration though being the best blocker for one of the best offenses of the 2000s. He was Tomlinson's best blocker for almost his entire career. Also, given the sad way his career ended, he might get some sympathy consideration.


3rd Tier: Jahri Evans (Saints)

Another guy who has never missed a game, Jahri Evans is a three time 1st-team All-Pro, and is really high-profile given him being the best blocker for the NFL's best offense year-after-year. He was among the Saints epic 2006 rookie class (with Reggie Bush and Marques Colston), and is the best player from it. Assuming he stays healthy, and the Bounty-Gate stuff doesn't kill off the Saints full-time, Evans should be able to get in.


4th Tier: Carl Nicks (Saints)

Many consider Carl Nicks the better guard to Jahri Evans. He's younger and more versatile. However, his move to Tampa Bay might kill his chances. Anyway, he's in this tier mainly because he is younger than Evans. Another guy who's never missed a game, Carl Nicks basically has the reputation now of being the best guard in the NFL. If that reputation carries with him to Tampa Bay, he should be set.


C


1st Tier: No One


2nd Tier: Jeff Saturday (Colts), Shaun O'Hara (Giants)

Center, more than the other positions on the line, is really the one tied to team success. Jeff Saturday, honestly, hasn't been a great blocker for a while now. That said, from 2000-2007 he was great. The 2 all-pros might be a little low, but that is mainly because it was hard to get nods when sure-fire HOFers Kevin Mawae and Olin Kruetz were hoarding them. Being the man tasked with interpreting Manning's audibles for a decade is probably enough to get him in (lock him up if the Packers win a SB with Saturday as the center). Shaun O'Hara gets the "he was a good center on a good team for a long time" induction. His case is definitely weaker than Saturday, but at most times in the NFL, there are two HOF centers in their prime. Saturday and O'Hara just make sense. Both were smart. Both were agile. Both were centers for Mannings. Both could very well end up in the HOF.


3rd Tier: Nick Mangold (Jets)

He's a far better center than Saturday or O'Hara. He could easily be a better center than Mawae and Kruetz. I ranked Mangold as the 8th best NFL Player in the NFL last year and I'm not at all ashamed. He was absolutely dominant in 2010. It was the first time I've ever really noticed a center for being brilliant. He single-blocked Vince Wilfork with relative ease in the 2010 Divisional Game. Nick Mangold is one of the few bright lights the Jets have in that mad-house they know run. He's already got 2 all-pro nods to his name and more will be coming.


4th Tier: Maurkice Pouncey (Steelers)

Personally, I've never been that impressed, but the media seemed to have lapped up Peter Kings lactations about Pouncey in 2010, voting him to the all-pro team after a good but not great 2011 campaign. He has the reputation he needs to keep getting nods to Hawaii. Pouncey does get the benefit of being with a good team, which could get him in the Saturday route.



Next Up - The Defense and Coaches