I did this some years ago when I just started the blog, but I'll like to forget I did. In fact, some of my choices (Kelvin Hayden???) were so horrible I'm not even going to bring them up. Anyway, you've seen this before. Many times even. Here will be my opinion on which active players deserve to be in the HOF.
Quickly, before we start on active one's, I'll take a moment to talk about the recently retired ones. The big HOF issue these days is Chris Carter, and the seemingly long time it is taking him, and other great WRs from the 1990's, to make the HOF. Chris Carter, Tim Brown and, in my opinion, to a lesser extent Andre Reed are all waiting because their most notable contemporary who has already retired was one Jerry Rice, and there are currently WRs in the NFL who put up huge numbers each year. I feel that this is seriously unfair to those guys. They were three of the five WRs in their day (Rice and Irvin being the other two). They deserve enshrinement. WR is going to be a real problem (for this excercise, I am considering Terrell Owens to be retired, whether that is the case or not). Apart from those three, Moss, Owens, Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are going to be eligible soon and they all have good cases. Some are obvious HOFers (Owens) that few will dispute, and the only way to dispute is attitude-related anectodes that are mostly bull. One is a player who should be a shoo-in, but because of his reclusiveness and the fact the Greatest QB of All Time was throwing him the ball for much of his career is being put down (Harrison). The other two played together for a number of years, but who's peaks did not really align apart from the three GSOT years. Holt probably has a stronger case, and I think most HOF voters (those mostly out-of-touch writers who care more about a player's quotability than catch rate) will probably be against putting two WRs from the same team who played together in the HOF (especially since Faulk is already in, Orlando Pace and Kurt Warner are on the way). Anyway, this is about current players.
Unlike last time, I will have four tiers. The first will be for sure fire 1st Ballot HOFers. These are the best. These are the guys that are among the six to eight best all time at their position. Their names are legendary. They could retire today and get in 1st ballot (Think Jerry Rice or Anthony Munoz). The second tier is for the guys that are basically already HOFers, but there would be some debate, some argument and they might not be 1st ballot (think Roger Staubach or Willie Brown). The third is for younger guys who are all between five to eight years of experience (there are a few instances where someone with said experience is already HOF worthy), who are well on their way. They are guys who probably have the resume of a HOF at 28, but because they are just 28 aren't there yet. They will graduate to the 2nd or possibly 1st tier in five years or so. The fourh tier is my projection tier where I just guess at which really young players (four years or less) will one day get there. This tier has the chance of being laughably, egregiously wrong come 2015. Anyway, the first post will be the offense and special teams, while the second will be the defense and coaches.
QB
1st Tier: Peyton Manning (Colts, Broncos), Tom Brady (Patriots)
Both are obvious. No point in even discussing this. I just hope they both don't retire in the same year because I wouldn't want to have a debate over who should get to be inducted last (usually given to the best player in that HOF class).
2nd Tier: Drew Brees (Chargers, Saints), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
Yup. I think if these guys retire this year (or next) they are in. Roethlisberger is probably more polarizing than Brees at this point (which is odd given how these two were viewed in relation to each other just three years ago). Drew Brees has just finished the most exhaustively compiled 6-year stretch that any QB has ever put up (67.8% cmp, 28,394 yards, 7.7/11.4 ypa/ypc, 201 TDs, 93 INTs for a 98.5 rating - for a comparison, Manning's best six year stretch is from 2003-2008, where he put up 66.5% cmp, 25,010 yards, 8.0/12.0 ypa/ypc, 195 TDs and 65 INTs for a 102.7 rating). Brees has a Super Bowl and a Super Bowl MVP. He has the two highest completion percentage years of all time, and two of the four highest yardage totals of all time. His New Orleans era is historic. I think his down years in San Diego and his lack of team success (only three 12+ win seasons) hurts him to not get in first ballot. He's not those two above, but he's not far behind. As for Ben. Two rings. One signature Super Bowl drive (arguably the best drive in Super Bowl history). Another trip. Great postseason record (I hate that that matters, but I have to be honest, it does). Five years with a passer rating above 97 (in comparison, both Brees and Brady have just three each). He's had two 4,000 yard seasons. He's had a 30 TD season. He really has a resume that just stacks up with past HOFers.
3rd Tier: Eli Manning (Giants), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
Eli Manning has two Super Bowls, like Roethlisberger, and two Super Bowl MVPs, like Brady, but he doesn't have either of their regular season success. This was by far Eli Manning's best regular season, and it would be Brady's 5th best (behind 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2011) or Roethlisberger's 4th best (behind 2005, 2007 and 2009). Eli Manning seems to have turned the corner and could have many more years close to 2011 and then he should be fine. Aaron Rodgers just had one of the top-5 passing seasons ever. He's the career leader in passer rating. He's had the best start to a career ever. The only issue is he's only had four years under his belt. Rivers has been right there with Rodgers and Brees over the past 5 years. I think he'll have a bounce back year next year. His spot as a potential HOFer is more tenuous than the other two (though numbers wise he's way ahead of Manning). He really is this generation's Dan Fouts. He might never win a Super Bowl, but that doesn't, and really shouldn't, mean he can't get to the HOF.
4th Tier: Cam Newton (Panthers)
This is a projection which could be very wrong. Obviously, the amount of variation that his career could take is massive. That said, he had the most impressive rookie season I have ever seen. He's Michael Vick but someone who is more advanced as a passer. What he did with that offense that could barely crack 20 points in 2010 was incredible. He has the pieces around him with a good o-line and two good running backs. Overall, I was really wrong about Cam Newton coming into the draft, but I think I will be less wrong about this.
RB
1st Tier: LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers, Jets)
Yeah, it is that obvious. His average season during his 9-year tenure in San Diego was the following:
320 rushes for 1,387 yrds (4.34 ypc), 15.3 rushing TDs, with 59 catches, 439 receiving yards and 1.7 receiving TDs.
That is insane. His best years in San Diego were incredible. He's the best RB I have ever seen in the 2000s. I hope the fact that he had a sad tendency to get hurt in the playoffs will be a knock against him, because he was awesome.
2nd Tier: Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
In this era of limited one-back systems, the numbers of a RB has to be looked at differently for a HOF possibility. While WR numbers are just getting better and better, the numbers for a RB is becoming worse. Peterson is something of an anomaly. He's the primary back. Of course, the huge caveat is the injury, but I think if Peterson returns to something where he was before and puts up two to three more years of average Peterson production, he is in. In just 5 years in the league, he's already closing in on 7,000 yards with near 70 TDs. He's been the best running back overall for the entirety of his career. He's already a 2-time all-pro. I think he gets there without too much work in the future.
3rd Tier: Chris Johnson (Titans)
For CJ, it is just faith that 2011 was a flukey bad year. Sure, there is a track record of guys getting their payday and falling off, but even CJ turned it around near the end of 2011. He'll never have a year like 2009 again, but he's already on Peterson's pace. With the turn back to mostly two-back sets and the ever-continuing increase of passing the ball, running back stats are probably not going to reach the historical landmarks that merit inclusion. Runners like CJ are guys that in this era with deflated career rushing totals are a lot more credible as a HOF than people would think.
4th Tier: LeSean McCoy (Eagles), Arian Foster (Texans)
LeSean McCoy is just 23. He's become the best dual threat RB in the NFL. He had 17 rushing TDs last season, and with Michael Vick as his QBs, his rushing numbers should continue to be good for the foresee-able future. McCoy already has a 1st-Team All-Pro nod under his belt. Arian Foster is also just 23 years old, and is really underrated as a receiving threat. His running numbers have been better than anyone else over the past two years. The system he is in is perfect, as Kubiak's Texans run game has become the neo-Broncos running game from the past decade. Barring injury, he could have a great career.
WR
1st Tier: Randy Moss (49ers)
I have a feeling that he will get in 1st ballot. When motivated and healthy, he was the best WR ever. His numbers during his best years are insane. His Vikings career included two 17 TD seasons, one with 15 and one with 13 (in 13 games). Of course, his three-year run in New England was almost more ridiculous. The 23 TDs. The good season with Cassel. The nice 2009 season. Even his first year in Oakland in 2004 wasn't all that bad. He was the best QB maker in history. There's a reason why the Vikings went 15-1, 10-6 and 11-5 from 1998-2000 with three different QBs (Cunningham, George, Culpepper). He's had 1,000 yard season with65 QBs (those three plus Kerry Collins, Brady and Cassel). I've never seen a receiver so utterly dominant as Randy Moss.
2nd Tier: Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), Andre Johnson (Texans), Steve Smith (Panthers)
Larry Fitzgerald has a chance to, statistically, be the 2nd greatest WR ever. I'm not putting him in Tier 1 because if he retires today, he's not 1st-ballot, and mainly because no WR seems to be these days. That said, after just 8 years, Fitzgerald has averaged 86.3 catches, 1,200 yards and 9 TDs. Limit those to just his last 5 seasons beginning with Warner's true renaissance, and it goes to 92.6 catches for 1,296 yards and 10 TDs. Last year showed with just average QBing, he could put up monster numbers. As for Andre Johnson, he had four consecutive season of at least 90 ypg. How many other players have done that? None. He's had a mix of awful to good QBing and performed throughout. The one concern is that he's only played 20 games the last two seasons. He's not as sure as Fitzgerald, but already having 5 pro-bowl nods and 2 all-pros, he's in good shape. Steve Smith is more precarious, as he's mixed insane seasons with above average ones. I think his reputation gets him in over just the numbers. At his best, he was the most uncoverable WR ever. Add to that the fact that he was short but still dominated at a tall-man's position and he really should get in. He's not always been healthy and he's never had great QB play (although that might begin to change) but his overall success is there. He also had, in my opinion, the best non-Moss-in-2007 season of any WR this decade, by being the sole weapon of note for the 2005 Panthers (103 catches, 1,563 yards, 12 TDs). Unbelievable player.
3rd Tier: Wes Welker (Dolphins, Patriots), Calvin Johnson (Lions)
Wes Welker has a couple of things really going against him. One is that he's already 30 and his numbers for his career are worse than both Fitzgerald and Andre who are younger and more dynamic. Secondly, his career yards-per-catch is just 11.1, which would be the lowest of any HOF WR. That said, he has been a catching machine with Brady. Some may fight against him because of the system, but no one has ever caught as many balls over a 5-year period as Wes Welker. This is more of a projection than Wes Welker because Calvin is younger, but that helps him a lot. He's already caught 49 TDs, and with Matt Stafford, he could be force-fed for years near the goal-line. His career average of 16.0 yards per reception is unbelievable. After an underwhelming rookie season he's been among the best over the past four years, and he's been the central figure to rebuilding the Lions. He's got a way to go, but he's definitely on the same track as Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, if a little less accomplished. But talent isn't the issue, but rather time.
4th Tier: Hakeem Nicks (Giants), Mike Wallace (Steelers)
I'm a lot more confident about Mike Wallace, but Hakeem Nicks has had a great start to his three year career. His numbers are getting better. He's Eli Manning's favorite target (I think he's better than Victor Cruz) and Eli Manning is entering a new prime of his career. Numbers will be there for Eli, and of course they will also be there for Nicks just as well. As for Mike Wallace, what's not to like. He's only 25. He's never missed a game. With a career 18.7 yards-per-reception he's the most dynamic vertical threat in the NFL, and is getting better at the short-passing game. What could be an issue is Pittsburgh seems to be thinking about moving to more run, but as long as he's paired with a good QB, he's set up great.
TE:
1st Tier: Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs, Falcons)
He's the best receiving TE in NFL history. Kellen Winslow and Ozzie Newsome and Shannon Sharpe might be nice, but Tony Gonzalez is to TEs as Jerry Rice is to WRs. He's 2nd all time in catches, and that is for any player. He's closing in on 100 TDs. If he was a WR, he might have a shot at the HOF, but he's a TE, and the best one ever.
2nd Tier: Antonio Gates (Chargers), Jason Witten (Cowboys)
After going four straight years without missing a game (2006-2009 - happened to coincide with the Chargers best four year run), Gates' body might be breaking down. If he could squeeze another two or three years at his current pace he's about as sure-fire as they get. The 13.1 yards-per-reception over his career, he's the most dynamic TE ever. 76 TDs are nice too. 8 time pro-bowler and 3 time all-pro just solidify that status. Jason Witten's case might be easier. Witten has been remarkably consistent over his career, missing just two games. After a nice start to his career with middling QBs, with Romo he's exploded into a new version of Tony Gonzalez. He's not the TD threat that Gates and Gonzalez are, but he's the Welker of receiving TEs. What separates Witten though is that he's reknowned as a great blocking TE, which is something that he has that Gonzalez and Gates does not.
3rd Tier: No One
4th Tier: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Jimmy Graham (Saints)
Honestly, after the past season for each, it is hard not to see GRONK or the blondie Jimmy Graham not making it in. They had the best and the second best receiving seasons for a TE ever. That said, they've both just played two seasons. They can easily have their careers derailed by injury, or in Gronkowski's case loss of qaulity WR (his career will undoubtedly go longer than Brady's). Another thing about Jimmy Graham is that he will be 27 next season. I have no idea how he got that old that quickly. Gronk is probably the safer bet, but again, injuries can always happen, and their total resume obviously doesn't merit inclusion yet.
OT
1st Tier: No One
2nd Tier: No One
3rd Tier: Jake Long (Dolphins), Joe Thomas (Browns)
Since there are no stats for o-lineman (other than pancakes, which I've never heard referenced in a game), the two things most important for o-lineman are reputation (which is much harder to lose than it is to earn) and things like pro-bowls and all-pro nods. If you are on a championship team, that might outweigh having less pro-bowls. Anyway, with the Great Tackles of the 2000s out of the game (Ogden, Jones, Pace), we are left with a new era where no one is really all that close to in yet. Jake Long, in four seasons, has been to four pro-bowls and one all-pro. In give seasons, Joe Thomas has been to five pro-bowls and three all-pros. Thomas is probably on the fast track, as for Long, it's a little less sure but with the reputation that he already has, it will be hard for him not to get there eventually.
4th Tier: Joe Staley (49ers), Ryan Clady (Broncos)
Joe Staley's been playing for 5 seasons, so he's old for this tier, but his career is really starting anew as the team is finally good. He's been a good player for years and is finally starting to get that recognition. The 49ers success has made more people aware of Joe Staley, and more pro-bowls should follow. Ryan Clady has played four seasons, never missed a game, and now gets to block for Peyton Manning. He's been named a 1st team all-pro already. The Peyton Manning thing is key, as he'll probably get closer to the spotlight in coming years. Just like Staley, the veteran's real career is just starting.
OG
1st Tier: Steve Hutchinson (Seahawks, Vikings)
His reputation may have finally started to outstrip his play, but 5 all-pro selections, as well as a 1st team all-decade gets you this lofty distinction. Walter Jones may have been slightly better, but just slightly. At his best Steve Hutchinson was absolutely dominant. With Hutch blocking for him, Shaun Alexander was one of the best running backs in the NFL. He leaves Seattle and Alexander all but turns to shit. He comes to Minnesota, and Adrian Peterson becomes the best running back in the NFL. The real best in the NFL was Hutchinson himself.
2nd Tier: Logan Mankins (Patriots), Kris Dielman (Chargers)
Logan Mankins as a 1st round pick was roundly criticized, but Bill Belichick knew what he was doing with Mankins. He's only missed one game due to injury in his career (although with ACL surgery may more be coming in 2012), and has been the best lineman for what has been among the best offense in the NFL over the past 5 years. It is commonly forgotten that Mankins came along after the Dynasty Pats, but he's been one of the three constants, along with Brady and Welker, of the juggernaut offense Pats. Kris Dielman is definitely a tough choice. I do think he will get serious consideration though being the best blocker for one of the best offenses of the 2000s. He was Tomlinson's best blocker for almost his entire career. Also, given the sad way his career ended, he might get some sympathy consideration.
3rd Tier: Jahri Evans (Saints)
Another guy who has never missed a game, Jahri Evans is a three time 1st-team All-Pro, and is really high-profile given him being the best blocker for the NFL's best offense year-after-year. He was among the Saints epic 2006 rookie class (with Reggie Bush and Marques Colston), and is the best player from it. Assuming he stays healthy, and the Bounty-Gate stuff doesn't kill off the Saints full-time, Evans should be able to get in.
4th Tier: Carl Nicks (Saints)
Many consider Carl Nicks the better guard to Jahri Evans. He's younger and more versatile. However, his move to Tampa Bay might kill his chances. Anyway, he's in this tier mainly because he is younger than Evans. Another guy who's never missed a game, Carl Nicks basically has the reputation now of being the best guard in the NFL. If that reputation carries with him to Tampa Bay, he should be set.
C
1st Tier: No One
2nd Tier: Jeff Saturday (Colts), Shaun O'Hara (Giants)
Center, more than the other positions on the line, is really the one tied to team success. Jeff Saturday, honestly, hasn't been a great blocker for a while now. That said, from 2000-2007 he was great. The 2 all-pros might be a little low, but that is mainly because it was hard to get nods when sure-fire HOFers Kevin Mawae and Olin Kruetz were hoarding them. Being the man tasked with interpreting Manning's audibles for a decade is probably enough to get him in (lock him up if the Packers win a SB with Saturday as the center). Shaun O'Hara gets the "he was a good center on a good team for a long time" induction. His case is definitely weaker than Saturday, but at most times in the NFL, there are two HOF centers in their prime. Saturday and O'Hara just make sense. Both were smart. Both were agile. Both were centers for Mannings. Both could very well end up in the HOF.
3rd Tier: Nick Mangold (Jets)
He's a far better center than Saturday or O'Hara. He could easily be a better center than Mawae and Kruetz. I ranked Mangold as the 8th best NFL Player in the NFL last year and I'm not at all ashamed. He was absolutely dominant in 2010. It was the first time I've ever really noticed a center for being brilliant. He single-blocked Vince Wilfork with relative ease in the 2010 Divisional Game. Nick Mangold is one of the few bright lights the Jets have in that mad-house they know run. He's already got 2 all-pro nods to his name and more will be coming.
4th Tier: Maurkice Pouncey (Steelers)
Personally, I've never been that impressed, but the media seemed to have lapped up Peter Kings lactations about Pouncey in 2010, voting him to the all-pro team after a good but not great 2011 campaign. He has the reputation he needs to keep getting nods to Hawaii. Pouncey does get the benefit of being with a good team, which could get him in the Saturday route.
Next Up - The Defense and Coaches
Quickly, before we start on active one's, I'll take a moment to talk about the recently retired ones. The big HOF issue these days is Chris Carter, and the seemingly long time it is taking him, and other great WRs from the 1990's, to make the HOF. Chris Carter, Tim Brown and, in my opinion, to a lesser extent Andre Reed are all waiting because their most notable contemporary who has already retired was one Jerry Rice, and there are currently WRs in the NFL who put up huge numbers each year. I feel that this is seriously unfair to those guys. They were three of the five WRs in their day (Rice and Irvin being the other two). They deserve enshrinement. WR is going to be a real problem (for this excercise, I am considering Terrell Owens to be retired, whether that is the case or not). Apart from those three, Moss, Owens, Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt are going to be eligible soon and they all have good cases. Some are obvious HOFers (Owens) that few will dispute, and the only way to dispute is attitude-related anectodes that are mostly bull. One is a player who should be a shoo-in, but because of his reclusiveness and the fact the Greatest QB of All Time was throwing him the ball for much of his career is being put down (Harrison). The other two played together for a number of years, but who's peaks did not really align apart from the three GSOT years. Holt probably has a stronger case, and I think most HOF voters (those mostly out-of-touch writers who care more about a player's quotability than catch rate) will probably be against putting two WRs from the same team who played together in the HOF (especially since Faulk is already in, Orlando Pace and Kurt Warner are on the way). Anyway, this is about current players.
Unlike last time, I will have four tiers. The first will be for sure fire 1st Ballot HOFers. These are the best. These are the guys that are among the six to eight best all time at their position. Their names are legendary. They could retire today and get in 1st ballot (Think Jerry Rice or Anthony Munoz). The second tier is for the guys that are basically already HOFers, but there would be some debate, some argument and they might not be 1st ballot (think Roger Staubach or Willie Brown). The third is for younger guys who are all between five to eight years of experience (there are a few instances where someone with said experience is already HOF worthy), who are well on their way. They are guys who probably have the resume of a HOF at 28, but because they are just 28 aren't there yet. They will graduate to the 2nd or possibly 1st tier in five years or so. The fourh tier is my projection tier where I just guess at which really young players (four years or less) will one day get there. This tier has the chance of being laughably, egregiously wrong come 2015. Anyway, the first post will be the offense and special teams, while the second will be the defense and coaches.
QB
1st Tier: Peyton Manning (Colts, Broncos), Tom Brady (Patriots)
Both are obvious. No point in even discussing this. I just hope they both don't retire in the same year because I wouldn't want to have a debate over who should get to be inducted last (usually given to the best player in that HOF class).
2nd Tier: Drew Brees (Chargers, Saints), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers)
Yup. I think if these guys retire this year (or next) they are in. Roethlisberger is probably more polarizing than Brees at this point (which is odd given how these two were viewed in relation to each other just three years ago). Drew Brees has just finished the most exhaustively compiled 6-year stretch that any QB has ever put up (67.8% cmp, 28,394 yards, 7.7/11.4 ypa/ypc, 201 TDs, 93 INTs for a 98.5 rating - for a comparison, Manning's best six year stretch is from 2003-2008, where he put up 66.5% cmp, 25,010 yards, 8.0/12.0 ypa/ypc, 195 TDs and 65 INTs for a 102.7 rating). Brees has a Super Bowl and a Super Bowl MVP. He has the two highest completion percentage years of all time, and two of the four highest yardage totals of all time. His New Orleans era is historic. I think his down years in San Diego and his lack of team success (only three 12+ win seasons) hurts him to not get in first ballot. He's not those two above, but he's not far behind. As for Ben. Two rings. One signature Super Bowl drive (arguably the best drive in Super Bowl history). Another trip. Great postseason record (I hate that that matters, but I have to be honest, it does). Five years with a passer rating above 97 (in comparison, both Brees and Brady have just three each). He's had two 4,000 yard seasons. He's had a 30 TD season. He really has a resume that just stacks up with past HOFers.
3rd Tier: Eli Manning (Giants), Aaron Rodgers (Packers), Philip Rivers (Chargers)
Eli Manning has two Super Bowls, like Roethlisberger, and two Super Bowl MVPs, like Brady, but he doesn't have either of their regular season success. This was by far Eli Manning's best regular season, and it would be Brady's 5th best (behind 2004, 2007, 2010 and 2011) or Roethlisberger's 4th best (behind 2005, 2007 and 2009). Eli Manning seems to have turned the corner and could have many more years close to 2011 and then he should be fine. Aaron Rodgers just had one of the top-5 passing seasons ever. He's the career leader in passer rating. He's had the best start to a career ever. The only issue is he's only had four years under his belt. Rivers has been right there with Rodgers and Brees over the past 5 years. I think he'll have a bounce back year next year. His spot as a potential HOFer is more tenuous than the other two (though numbers wise he's way ahead of Manning). He really is this generation's Dan Fouts. He might never win a Super Bowl, but that doesn't, and really shouldn't, mean he can't get to the HOF.
4th Tier: Cam Newton (Panthers)
This is a projection which could be very wrong. Obviously, the amount of variation that his career could take is massive. That said, he had the most impressive rookie season I have ever seen. He's Michael Vick but someone who is more advanced as a passer. What he did with that offense that could barely crack 20 points in 2010 was incredible. He has the pieces around him with a good o-line and two good running backs. Overall, I was really wrong about Cam Newton coming into the draft, but I think I will be less wrong about this.
RB
1st Tier: LaDainian Tomlinson (Chargers, Jets)
Yeah, it is that obvious. His average season during his 9-year tenure in San Diego was the following:
320 rushes for 1,387 yrds (4.34 ypc), 15.3 rushing TDs, with 59 catches, 439 receiving yards and 1.7 receiving TDs.
That is insane. His best years in San Diego were incredible. He's the best RB I have ever seen in the 2000s. I hope the fact that he had a sad tendency to get hurt in the playoffs will be a knock against him, because he was awesome.
2nd Tier: Adrian Peterson (Vikings)
In this era of limited one-back systems, the numbers of a RB has to be looked at differently for a HOF possibility. While WR numbers are just getting better and better, the numbers for a RB is becoming worse. Peterson is something of an anomaly. He's the primary back. Of course, the huge caveat is the injury, but I think if Peterson returns to something where he was before and puts up two to three more years of average Peterson production, he is in. In just 5 years in the league, he's already closing in on 7,000 yards with near 70 TDs. He's been the best running back overall for the entirety of his career. He's already a 2-time all-pro. I think he gets there without too much work in the future.
3rd Tier: Chris Johnson (Titans)
For CJ, it is just faith that 2011 was a flukey bad year. Sure, there is a track record of guys getting their payday and falling off, but even CJ turned it around near the end of 2011. He'll never have a year like 2009 again, but he's already on Peterson's pace. With the turn back to mostly two-back sets and the ever-continuing increase of passing the ball, running back stats are probably not going to reach the historical landmarks that merit inclusion. Runners like CJ are guys that in this era with deflated career rushing totals are a lot more credible as a HOF than people would think.
4th Tier: LeSean McCoy (Eagles), Arian Foster (Texans)
LeSean McCoy is just 23. He's become the best dual threat RB in the NFL. He had 17 rushing TDs last season, and with Michael Vick as his QBs, his rushing numbers should continue to be good for the foresee-able future. McCoy already has a 1st-Team All-Pro nod under his belt. Arian Foster is also just 23 years old, and is really underrated as a receiving threat. His running numbers have been better than anyone else over the past two years. The system he is in is perfect, as Kubiak's Texans run game has become the neo-Broncos running game from the past decade. Barring injury, he could have a great career.
WR
1st Tier: Randy Moss (49ers)
I have a feeling that he will get in 1st ballot. When motivated and healthy, he was the best WR ever. His numbers during his best years are insane. His Vikings career included two 17 TD seasons, one with 15 and one with 13 (in 13 games). Of course, his three-year run in New England was almost more ridiculous. The 23 TDs. The good season with Cassel. The nice 2009 season. Even his first year in Oakland in 2004 wasn't all that bad. He was the best QB maker in history. There's a reason why the Vikings went 15-1, 10-6 and 11-5 from 1998-2000 with three different QBs (Cunningham, George, Culpepper). He's had 1,000 yard season with65 QBs (those three plus Kerry Collins, Brady and Cassel). I've never seen a receiver so utterly dominant as Randy Moss.
2nd Tier: Larry Fitzgerald (Cardinals), Andre Johnson (Texans), Steve Smith (Panthers)
Larry Fitzgerald has a chance to, statistically, be the 2nd greatest WR ever. I'm not putting him in Tier 1 because if he retires today, he's not 1st-ballot, and mainly because no WR seems to be these days. That said, after just 8 years, Fitzgerald has averaged 86.3 catches, 1,200 yards and 9 TDs. Limit those to just his last 5 seasons beginning with Warner's true renaissance, and it goes to 92.6 catches for 1,296 yards and 10 TDs. Last year showed with just average QBing, he could put up monster numbers. As for Andre Johnson, he had four consecutive season of at least 90 ypg. How many other players have done that? None. He's had a mix of awful to good QBing and performed throughout. The one concern is that he's only played 20 games the last two seasons. He's not as sure as Fitzgerald, but already having 5 pro-bowl nods and 2 all-pros, he's in good shape. Steve Smith is more precarious, as he's mixed insane seasons with above average ones. I think his reputation gets him in over just the numbers. At his best, he was the most uncoverable WR ever. Add to that the fact that he was short but still dominated at a tall-man's position and he really should get in. He's not always been healthy and he's never had great QB play (although that might begin to change) but his overall success is there. He also had, in my opinion, the best non-Moss-in-2007 season of any WR this decade, by being the sole weapon of note for the 2005 Panthers (103 catches, 1,563 yards, 12 TDs). Unbelievable player.
3rd Tier: Wes Welker (Dolphins, Patriots), Calvin Johnson (Lions)
Wes Welker has a couple of things really going against him. One is that he's already 30 and his numbers for his career are worse than both Fitzgerald and Andre who are younger and more dynamic. Secondly, his career yards-per-catch is just 11.1, which would be the lowest of any HOF WR. That said, he has been a catching machine with Brady. Some may fight against him because of the system, but no one has ever caught as many balls over a 5-year period as Wes Welker. This is more of a projection than Wes Welker because Calvin is younger, but that helps him a lot. He's already caught 49 TDs, and with Matt Stafford, he could be force-fed for years near the goal-line. His career average of 16.0 yards per reception is unbelievable. After an underwhelming rookie season he's been among the best over the past four years, and he's been the central figure to rebuilding the Lions. He's got a way to go, but he's definitely on the same track as Fitzgerald and Andre Johnson, if a little less accomplished. But talent isn't the issue, but rather time.
4th Tier: Hakeem Nicks (Giants), Mike Wallace (Steelers)
I'm a lot more confident about Mike Wallace, but Hakeem Nicks has had a great start to his three year career. His numbers are getting better. He's Eli Manning's favorite target (I think he's better than Victor Cruz) and Eli Manning is entering a new prime of his career. Numbers will be there for Eli, and of course they will also be there for Nicks just as well. As for Mike Wallace, what's not to like. He's only 25. He's never missed a game. With a career 18.7 yards-per-reception he's the most dynamic vertical threat in the NFL, and is getting better at the short-passing game. What could be an issue is Pittsburgh seems to be thinking about moving to more run, but as long as he's paired with a good QB, he's set up great.
TE:
1st Tier: Tony Gonzalez (Chiefs, Falcons)
He's the best receiving TE in NFL history. Kellen Winslow and Ozzie Newsome and Shannon Sharpe might be nice, but Tony Gonzalez is to TEs as Jerry Rice is to WRs. He's 2nd all time in catches, and that is for any player. He's closing in on 100 TDs. If he was a WR, he might have a shot at the HOF, but he's a TE, and the best one ever.
2nd Tier: Antonio Gates (Chargers), Jason Witten (Cowboys)
After going four straight years without missing a game (2006-2009 - happened to coincide with the Chargers best four year run), Gates' body might be breaking down. If he could squeeze another two or three years at his current pace he's about as sure-fire as they get. The 13.1 yards-per-reception over his career, he's the most dynamic TE ever. 76 TDs are nice too. 8 time pro-bowler and 3 time all-pro just solidify that status. Jason Witten's case might be easier. Witten has been remarkably consistent over his career, missing just two games. After a nice start to his career with middling QBs, with Romo he's exploded into a new version of Tony Gonzalez. He's not the TD threat that Gates and Gonzalez are, but he's the Welker of receiving TEs. What separates Witten though is that he's reknowned as a great blocking TE, which is something that he has that Gonzalez and Gates does not.
3rd Tier: No One
4th Tier: Rob Gronkowski (Patriots), Jimmy Graham (Saints)
Honestly, after the past season for each, it is hard not to see GRONK or the blondie Jimmy Graham not making it in. They had the best and the second best receiving seasons for a TE ever. That said, they've both just played two seasons. They can easily have their careers derailed by injury, or in Gronkowski's case loss of qaulity WR (his career will undoubtedly go longer than Brady's). Another thing about Jimmy Graham is that he will be 27 next season. I have no idea how he got that old that quickly. Gronk is probably the safer bet, but again, injuries can always happen, and their total resume obviously doesn't merit inclusion yet.
OT
1st Tier: No One
2nd Tier: No One
3rd Tier: Jake Long (Dolphins), Joe Thomas (Browns)
Since there are no stats for o-lineman (other than pancakes, which I've never heard referenced in a game), the two things most important for o-lineman are reputation (which is much harder to lose than it is to earn) and things like pro-bowls and all-pro nods. If you are on a championship team, that might outweigh having less pro-bowls. Anyway, with the Great Tackles of the 2000s out of the game (Ogden, Jones, Pace), we are left with a new era where no one is really all that close to in yet. Jake Long, in four seasons, has been to four pro-bowls and one all-pro. In give seasons, Joe Thomas has been to five pro-bowls and three all-pros. Thomas is probably on the fast track, as for Long, it's a little less sure but with the reputation that he already has, it will be hard for him not to get there eventually.
4th Tier: Joe Staley (49ers), Ryan Clady (Broncos)
Joe Staley's been playing for 5 seasons, so he's old for this tier, but his career is really starting anew as the team is finally good. He's been a good player for years and is finally starting to get that recognition. The 49ers success has made more people aware of Joe Staley, and more pro-bowls should follow. Ryan Clady has played four seasons, never missed a game, and now gets to block for Peyton Manning. He's been named a 1st team all-pro already. The Peyton Manning thing is key, as he'll probably get closer to the spotlight in coming years. Just like Staley, the veteran's real career is just starting.
OG
1st Tier: Steve Hutchinson (Seahawks, Vikings)
His reputation may have finally started to outstrip his play, but 5 all-pro selections, as well as a 1st team all-decade gets you this lofty distinction. Walter Jones may have been slightly better, but just slightly. At his best Steve Hutchinson was absolutely dominant. With Hutch blocking for him, Shaun Alexander was one of the best running backs in the NFL. He leaves Seattle and Alexander all but turns to shit. He comes to Minnesota, and Adrian Peterson becomes the best running back in the NFL. The real best in the NFL was Hutchinson himself.
2nd Tier: Logan Mankins (Patriots), Kris Dielman (Chargers)
Logan Mankins as a 1st round pick was roundly criticized, but Bill Belichick knew what he was doing with Mankins. He's only missed one game due to injury in his career (although with ACL surgery may more be coming in 2012), and has been the best lineman for what has been among the best offense in the NFL over the past 5 years. It is commonly forgotten that Mankins came along after the Dynasty Pats, but he's been one of the three constants, along with Brady and Welker, of the juggernaut offense Pats. Kris Dielman is definitely a tough choice. I do think he will get serious consideration though being the best blocker for one of the best offenses of the 2000s. He was Tomlinson's best blocker for almost his entire career. Also, given the sad way his career ended, he might get some sympathy consideration.
3rd Tier: Jahri Evans (Saints)
Another guy who has never missed a game, Jahri Evans is a three time 1st-team All-Pro, and is really high-profile given him being the best blocker for the NFL's best offense year-after-year. He was among the Saints epic 2006 rookie class (with Reggie Bush and Marques Colston), and is the best player from it. Assuming he stays healthy, and the Bounty-Gate stuff doesn't kill off the Saints full-time, Evans should be able to get in.
4th Tier: Carl Nicks (Saints)
Many consider Carl Nicks the better guard to Jahri Evans. He's younger and more versatile. However, his move to Tampa Bay might kill his chances. Anyway, he's in this tier mainly because he is younger than Evans. Another guy who's never missed a game, Carl Nicks basically has the reputation now of being the best guard in the NFL. If that reputation carries with him to Tampa Bay, he should be set.
C
1st Tier: No One
2nd Tier: Jeff Saturday (Colts), Shaun O'Hara (Giants)
Center, more than the other positions on the line, is really the one tied to team success. Jeff Saturday, honestly, hasn't been a great blocker for a while now. That said, from 2000-2007 he was great. The 2 all-pros might be a little low, but that is mainly because it was hard to get nods when sure-fire HOFers Kevin Mawae and Olin Kruetz were hoarding them. Being the man tasked with interpreting Manning's audibles for a decade is probably enough to get him in (lock him up if the Packers win a SB with Saturday as the center). Shaun O'Hara gets the "he was a good center on a good team for a long time" induction. His case is definitely weaker than Saturday, but at most times in the NFL, there are two HOF centers in their prime. Saturday and O'Hara just make sense. Both were smart. Both were agile. Both were centers for Mannings. Both could very well end up in the HOF.
3rd Tier: Nick Mangold (Jets)
He's a far better center than Saturday or O'Hara. He could easily be a better center than Mawae and Kruetz. I ranked Mangold as the 8th best NFL Player in the NFL last year and I'm not at all ashamed. He was absolutely dominant in 2010. It was the first time I've ever really noticed a center for being brilliant. He single-blocked Vince Wilfork with relative ease in the 2010 Divisional Game. Nick Mangold is one of the few bright lights the Jets have in that mad-house they know run. He's already got 2 all-pro nods to his name and more will be coming.
4th Tier: Maurkice Pouncey (Steelers)
Personally, I've never been that impressed, but the media seemed to have lapped up Peter Kings lactations about Pouncey in 2010, voting him to the all-pro team after a good but not great 2011 campaign. He has the reputation he needs to keep getting nods to Hawaii. Pouncey does get the benefit of being with a good team, which could get him in the Saturday route.
Next Up - The Defense and Coaches
