2019 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Review

Player of the Week: Patrick Mahomes, QB-KC

That was the most inevitable 24-point comeback I've ever seen, because you just knew at some point his top guys would stop dropping passes (except for Demarcus Robinson, who probably should not see a pass again). And when they did, Mahomes was set-up to do something insane. Patrick Mahomes is the best QB in teh NFL. Jackson had a better season, but we saw a man unleashed, capable of any throw, capable of making 24-point comebacks turn into 20-point blowouts. That was truly special. Short fields helped expedite teh comeback, but you get the sense if they had to go 80 yards each time they probably would have done it. That was one of the most insane performances I've ever seen.


Runner-Up: Devante Adams, WR-GB

Aaron Rodgers was 8-16 when throwing to people not named Devante Adams. He was 8-8 when throwing to the seventh year player - someone who has somehow survived being a WR for Aaron Rodgers. Adams routes were fluid, he was great after the catch, he muscled through the few times the Seahawks tried to press. He expertly avoided the press on the basically game-sealing thrid down conversion. Rodgers is a lot better when he has the one trusted receiver, and Adams is that guy. There will be a lot of focus on him being able to win his battle with, one would assume, Richard Sherman on Sunday.


Goat of the Week: Vikings Coaching Staff

There was no clear goat - and no, i don't think Lamar Jackson is anywhere clear to goat status, so I'll go with teh team that seemed the most overmatched. The Vikings had zero adjustments all game. They never left more people into block when it became painfully obvious their OL was overmatched. All their creative stuff to get pressure against Brees, against a better OL, disappeared in this game, when facing a QB that if anything is more susceptible to pressure. I still think Mike Zimmer is a great coach, as are Gary Kubiak, but their weakness remains a stubborness (game against the Saints aside).


Runner-Up: Bill O'Brien

Look, I'll actually credit O'Brien for the fake punt. Generally that is a situation + look play - if the punt teams sees an advantageous matchup, they switch to it. The Texans probably deserved to conver it, getting stopped only due to an incredible open field tackle. O'Brien correctly realized 24 points was not going to be enough. That said, all his other decisions were baffling. Kicking a field goal on 4th and 1 in the red zone was ludicrous - especially so after burning a timeout to think it over. His explanation after the game, that they didn't have the play-call for that situation, was one of the worst excuses I've ever heard. His play-calling didn't make a whole lot of sense, relying on Deshaun being incredible to get any semblance of a comeback. It was't his worse playoff loss, that is still getting shutout 30-0 at home, but this is a memorable collapse.


Surprise of the Week: Tennessee Titans Secondary

The Titans have a very good rush defense. They've had that all year. What I didn't expect was theri secondary, to be fair long a talented group, playing so well. They were able to stop Lamar when he ran outside. They were able to flood zones. Yes, they were helped out by umpteen drops, but they also made Jackson's life confusing, and did a great job on Mark Andrews, Lamar's go-to option. The Titans secondary will have to play even better, but that was a great start as Baltimore wass a significantly more difficult challenge than New England, and Kansas City is significantly more difficult still/


Runner-Up: Kansas City Chiefs rush defense

Despite losing Chris Jones, the Chiefs did yoemans work against hte Texans rush offense (not a terrible unit), even when teh game was still close (or even when Houston was dominating). This becomes ridiculously crucial when facing the Titans next round. It is the biggest weakness of the Chiefs matching up with the Titans greatest strength, so the fact their linebackers and non-Chris Jones lineman did a great job setting the edge and pushing up the middle, is a great start.


Disappointment of the Week: The Baltimore Ravens, in totality

The Ravens weren't the first great team to lose a playoff game. Their loss had similarities to both the 2010 Patriots or 2009 Chargers, who of course both lost to the Jets, a running-based team with a Vrabel-esque figure in Rex Ryan. But I don't know I've seen a team to so many small things wrong. The two failed fourth-downs. The dropped passes. The penalty on the touchback to turn 1st down from teh 20 to 1st down from teh five. The lack of ball security. So many issues that easily could have been avoided. We've also seen recent great teams have harrowing losses and come back just fine (2005 Colts, those same 2010 Patriots) but this will be tough to live down.


Runner-Up: Nothing

One last note about that Ravens loss - if anything this was slight karma for the Ravens, who twice defeated the Titans in the playoffs when the Titans were 13-3 #1 seeds, despite being massively outplayed. In 2000, the Ravens had less than 200 yards of offense, but returned a bobbled-interception and a blocked field goal for touchdowns. In 2008, the Titans outgained Baltimore by 183 yards, but turned it over twice inside the five yard line and lost 13-10. This was delayed payback. 


Team Performance of the Week: San Francisco 49ers Defensive Line

There's nothing surprising or shocking about what the 49ers D-Line did on Saturday. They are the league's best front when fully healthy, and with Dee Ford back, they were fully healthy, and my god were they dominant. Cousins was pressured 17 times on 35 dropbacks - an insane rate. Bosa was great, but Armstead, Buckner, Ford (and long forgotten #3 pick Solomon Thomas) were all excellent. The 49ers absolutely swallowed a run-game that was great agaisnt New Orleans, and forced Cousins to throw early, which he hates to do. That was an incredible performance/


Runner-Up: Green Bay Packers secondary

The Seahawks moved the ball well in teh second half for basically two reasons: because Russell Wilson is awesome, and because he ran around a lot until his guys got open. However, on the whole the Packers secondary did a great job limiting WIlson early. Jaire Alexander was a rock in coverage all game, especially when he was man-up against DK Metcalf. Kevin King was great, when not dropping easy interceptions. They also did a good job of contain against Wilson. The pass rush was fierce, but the biggest key when playing the Seahawks is the patience to stay with receivers when the play breaks down and the Packers did a wonderful job of that.


Team Laydown of the Week: The Texans Defense

Yes, I know the Chiefs offense is capable of raising Holy Hell, and I know the Texans don't have a good defense to begin with, but they literally made one stop all game. The first two Chiefs drives ended because of clear drops on would-be first downs. The only real stop also featured a drop before maybe the only good defensive play of the game, breaking up a deep pass to Tyreek Hill for a 4th down. After that they were literally incapable. Romeo Crennel had no adjustments at all, even when it was clear simple-double team wans't going to be eough. Yes, I understand he has a near impossible situation to face, but it was still astoundingly bad.


Runner-Up: The Seattle Seahawks pass defense

While the Packers defense was overperforming, the Seahawks defense was infuriantingly unable to stop Devante Adams over and over again. Shaq Griffen (the corner) had a great year, but was awful in this game trying to press Adams. The Seahawks are usually able to scheme up competence, but it just wasn't there in this game.


Storyline that will Beat Into the Ground: The miracle Titans running over KC

The amount we are going to hear about KC's porous rush defense getting mauled by the Titans and Derrick Henry is going to be nauseating, if ti wasn't largely true. That all said, people are going to focus on that side (despite the Titans not actualyl doing that well against Baltimore aside from three big plays - important to be sure). I feel like the other side, the Chiefs incredible offense against a porous Titans pass defense is almost being overlooked. Yes, we see these images of Henry running over and over and over again, but we have to remember if the Chiefs can get up early it takes away so much of what the Titans want to do.


Storyline that Should be Beat Into the Ground: Can the Packers pull off another miracle change in a rematch

What my comparison point is a game the Packers ended up losing, but there are some interesting similarities heading into this game with their 2015 NFC Divisional loss to teh Cardinals. That year, the Packers late in teh regular season went to Arizona and got hammered 38-8. Rodgers was sacked 8 times, went just 15-28 for 151 yards. The Cardinals had 178 total yards (77 net passing yards). It was a massacre. That was actually 20 yards fewer than they had against the 49ers, who Rodgers went 20-33 for a hilariously low 104 yards against, getting sacked five times. In the 49ers game, it was 37-8. What happened in teh playoffs (and mind you, the 2015 game was a Week 16 affair)? The Packers lost 26-20 in OT. It took a miracle to get to OT, but even if Rodgers 4th and 20 hail mary (or the other Hail Mary) falls imcomplete, it was a great performance against a much better team. This could be that again. Hopefully. 

2019 NFL Playoffs: Divisional Round Picks

For the first time since the 2008 season, as in the last playoffs before I started this blog, I don't have a significant rooting interest in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. Basically, what that means is this is the first time in forever the Patriots aren't involved, and the last time they weren't, Peyton's Colts were involved.

This time I can actually just sit back and enjoy the best weekend of the sports year in all its beautiful glory, and we have some nice games to make it all work.

(N6)  Minnesota Vikings  (11-6)  @  (N1)  San Francisco 49ers  (13-3)

Sat., 4:35  -  NBC  |  SF -7.0

State of the Teams: The real 49ers are back in terms of their personnel. Kwon Alexander made his miracle return much like JJ Watt did the week prior. Jaquisky Tartt is back. Dee Ford will likely be back. The 49ers defense was Patriots level good through eleven or so games when these injuries started, but with the full roster back you would expect a good return to form. For the Vikings, the best news for them was Adam Thielen being the nightmare he is when healthy. The rest of the team is healthy and ready aside from issues in the secondary - which they have even when their main guys are playing. The Vikings can enter this game with the view that they've played similar-style offenses in Chicago and Green Bay and done well, but the 49ers, when they're not turning the ball over, are a different animal than those teams.

Matchup: Let's start with the matchup that will likely define this game - the Vikings offense against the San Francisco defense. The 49ers defense is healthy now but eve when including their time in the wilderness they remain a Top-5, if not Top-2 unit. Their pass rush and pass defense is excellent, even against play action, which will b huge since as much as the Vikings may extol their run-the-ball principles they are best when they can pass. The Vikings also fumble a lot and the 49ers force a lot of fumbles - not a great combination. On the other side of the matchup, it is probably a less one-sided version of the other. The 49ers are most effective when they can pass off of play-action. They will need to be able to block Hunter and Griffen inside if that is the route Zimmer wants to do. The Vikings force a lot of turnovers, which the 49ers have as their kryptonite. On the whole, both sides lean towards the defense, but the 49ers defense is just better. If there is an area of clear edge for Minnesota, it is their better red zone play on both sides (#2 offense, #10 defense vs. #21 offense, #22 defense for SF), but the 49ers are better across the board on third down.

Interesting Note: The 49ers are 12-2 all time in the Divisional Round with a first round bye, losing just in 1987 to Minnesota and in 1995 to Green Bay.

The Pick: To put it simply, the 49ers are a better version of the Vikings. They have the same lethal pass rush, but it is deeper. They also rely on play action, but their run game is better. Their secondary is good and healthy, the Vikings is iffy and injured. The Vikings have good coaching, but so do the 49ers. Turnovers and red zone could help the Vikings, but I think the 49ers will get enough drives in to overcome any relative red zone weakness.

Vikings 17  49ers 30  (SF -7.0)

(A6)  Tennessee Titans  (10-7)  @  (A1)  Baltimore Ravens  (14-2)

Sat., 8:15  -  CBS  |  BAL -10.0

State of the Teams: The Titans are running in hot with their inspirational win against the Patriots, a game that showed their power and physicality. They also scored 14 points. The Titans are healthy, but we saw Tannehill struggle (albeit against a great defense) in a way he hadn't all year - a sign his legendary hot streak may be ending). For the Ravens, they are as healthy as you can reasonably expect, with just two players listed as questionable in the Marks Ingram and Andrews - both expected to play. The Titans will be without Adam Humphries again, but maybe more worringly without lijnebacker Jayon Brown, because as good as the Titans heavy run-game may seem, the Ravens are the best run team in a long, long time.

Matchup: As I alluded to a few times, the Ravens are just better. The Ravens rank as one of the Top-10 teams by DVOA since 1985 - I believe a final ranking of 7th. They are #1 on offense by a country mile this season - ranking first in DVOA in rushing (obviously) and passing (less obviously). Yes the pass game is helped by play action, but they can run even when trailing given how dynanic that side is. The Titans relative strength defensively is against the run, but the Ravens might still be fine if forced to pass. The Ravens are the second best red zone offense in the NFL (not surprising for a great runnning team), and the Titans are second worst. On the other side, the Titans great results under Tannehill have it closer than it may look initially. The Titans are surprisingly top in red zone offense, but the Ravens are the third best defense in the red zone. One thing to monitor is Tannehill has been ungodly against the blitz and the Ravens blitz more than any team in the league. That said, Tanehill struggled against teh Patriots blitzing. If the Tannehill from the Patriots game shows up, the Titans have little to no chance. They may not anyway.

Interesting Note: This is just the third Divisional Game ever in Baltimore, with the Ravens 1-1 in the previous two, losing to the Colts in 2006 and beating the Texans in 2011. It's a bit surprising how few times the Ravens have been in position despite being so successful the last 20 years.

The Pick: To put it mildly, we are all probably underrating just how good this Baltimore team is. A scoring differential of 531 points for and 282 points allowed is all-time good - second best since the 2002 season expanded the league to 32 teams, with only the 2007 Patriots higher. There is little that they are not good at, be it by volume or efficiency. Great teams have lost playoff games before - there are some similarities here to the 2012 Broncos losing to that years Ravens team, but it will have to be a large upset.

Titans 13  Ravens 34  (BAL -10.0)

(A4)  Houston Texans  (11-6)  @  (A2)  Kansas City Chiefs  (12-4)

Sun., 3:00  -  CBS  |  KC -10.0

State of the Teams: Both teams enter relatively healthy and hot. The Texans truly survived that game, but their big issues against Buffalo - namely pass rush - shouldn't be as much of an issue here with a healthy OL and the should be return of Will Fuller, the guy who makes that offense click. The only worry on the KC side is the injury to Chris Jones. The Texans are a good not great running team, but issues to the Chiefs rush defense could assist in shortening the game, giving a better chance for the underdogs. The best change for the Chiefs compared to when they first played is the health of Patrick Mahomes, something that was certainly not the case the first time these two teams met. The Chiefs pass defense has improved throughout the season, which should be huge in this game.

Matchup: Much like the other AFC matchup, on paper this really does not seem close. The Texans have a few very clear weaknesses - a porous defense that ranks 31st on third downs, 32nd in the red zone (not so much so against Buffalo), a weak pass rush, and while JJ Watt's return helped he still clearly is not 100%. The Chiefs offense is still excellent even when looking at year-long stats that incldue games with Matt Moore and a gimpy Mahomes. He is still the most dynamic passer in the league and Reid's game-plan keep speople on their toes the whole time. His roster of weapons are all ready and healthy. The other side of the matchup will probably define whether this is a blowout or a close game. Watson will need to hit a few nig plays, which the Chiefs have been susceptible to. They'll need to try running to shorten the game, but they may have some success against a rush defense that ranks 29th. The key for the Chiefs will be to get ahead early and force Houston to abandon a rush game that could be successful early. Basically, the old Manning-Colts formula.

Interesting Note:

The Pick: I am confident in picking the Chiefs to win, but I do get a sense it may be closer than expected. I do think the Texans will have success rushing the ball early on. They could limit the game. Their defense is horribly outmatched against the Chiefs offense, but their own offense should keep them in the game at the start. There is a chance the worst version of the Texans show up and its a blowout, but there is anough matchup edges to keep it within ten points.

Texans 24  Chiefs 31  (HOU +10.0)

(N5)  Seattle Seahawks  (12-5)  @  (N2)  Green Bay Packers  (13-3)

Sun., 6:35  -  FOX  |  GB -4.0

State of the Teams: The Seahawks are no healthier this week than they were last week. Still no Duane Brown or Chris Carson. It was enough against a team equally injured that then lost its QB, but may pose a bit more difficulty against the Packers. On the Packers side, they are relatively healthy. The big questions around them is still the lingering sense they aren't all that good - with teh worst point differential for a 13-3 or better team ever, and a sense that they just aren't all that good. To be fair, that is true of either team. The Seahawks had a poor differential for an 11-5 team too. The Packers pass rush is healthy, Rodgers has stayed clean all year, but it will be interesting to see if he loses the inaccuracy issues from his last game.

Matchup: Almost no side of this game has anything truly excellent about it. For the Seahawks offense against Packers defense side, the Seahawks are a top-5 DVOA offense, good on both pass and run, but the run is worse with Chris Carson gone, and the passing game may struggle if the Smith's tee off against the lack of Duane Brown. The Seahawks offensive tendency to run way too much may lull them into some middlign success against a relatively porous rush defense. Red zone may be key as both units rank in the Top-10 of the league. The Packers offense matches up pretty well with where teh Seahawks struggle, particularly running the ball. Aaron Jones could have a great game against a rush defense ranked #26 in DVOA. The Packers never turn the ball over - playing right to what the Sehawks defense relies on. They've excelled at pass blocking now going up against one of the worst pass rushes in the league. The Packers red zone offense is #9 in the league, agaisnt a Seahawks red zone defense that ranks #26. If anything, the Packers issue is they just stop playing halfway through if they build a lead - a aterrible idea against one of the better comeback QBs.

Interesting Note: The Packers have lost quite a few home playoff games since losing at Lambeau in the playoffs for the first time in 2002. That said, they have never lost at home after the bye, winning in that situation in 1996, 1997, 2007, 2011 and 2014. Conversely, Seattle has never made the Conference Title Game without a bye - needing it in 2005, 2013 and 2014.

The Pick: The Packers to me are the better team of the team, and have a big matchup edge on their offense against the Seahawks defense. If they can pressure WIlson and not let Marshawn beat them they shouild get this game. That said, strange stuff happens when they play, be it the Fail Mary, or the 2014 Title Game, or Wilson's 5-pick disaster in 2016. I do think the Seahawks keep it somewhat close, but the Packers edges on their offense should carry the day.

Seahawks 21  Packers 27  (GB -4.0)

The Nostalgia Diaries, Pt. 19: 2005-2008 Divisional Rounds + Region Band

Divisional Weekend is the best weekend in the sports calendar. It's not even a question for the NFL, but even if you open it up to all sports, probably only the first weekend of March Madness comes close. Four great games, eight great teams. Some of the all time moments in the sport's history have come on that weekend.

However, divisional weekend also matched up directly with the New Jersey Region Band - a prestigious tryout-only band that was the apple of so many musicianed eyes back in my high school days. Of course, I was in no position to say to my parents 'hey, I'm not going to try out for region band, to shine in something you've poured a decent amount of money into, because I want to watch football'. So I tried out. I made it (I was rather good at the old tuba). And I learned the early ills of DVR, and trying to hide an increasingly mobile world.

Music was a big part of my high school experience. I started with the trumpet in 5th grade, playing that through 6th grade. I was decent, but not great. I decided then to switch to tuba, an instrument no one in my grade played - because then it wouldn't matter if I was good or bad, I would automatically be the best because I was the only.

I ended up being quite good at the tuba, and parlaying my expertise to playing it in our school's full Orchestra ('band' instruments joined in Orchestra starting in High School) which itself led to both a series of amazing experiences (Orchestra trip to Vienna) and a love of Orchestral music that remains through to today.

Anyway, back to region band. We used to try out in November or so, and if picked you would be part of a long-weekend practice and concert. It was all-day practices Friday and Saturday, and then a performance on Sunday, always overlapping with the best damn weekend in football. The hours practicing were excruciating mainly because it was slightly boring band music. I guess it is the life of a musician, but that life wasn't for me, especially when football was on instead.

I still remember racing home after each Saturday practice, trying to catch whichever divisional game was on. During this period, we got a Comcast box that had DVR, so it made life easier to not miss the games, but then it also brought with it a now-endless challenge of trying to both watch games way after they happen and avoid any type of stimulus that could potentially give me information on who won.

It wasn't always easy, and sometimes just outright failed. The worst moment was probably in 2007, when after our band's concert I came home, turned the TV on, but it was left on NFLNetwork, that was already talking about the Colts harrowing 24-28 loss to the Chargers - the game where Philip Rivers would tear his ACL and Billy Volek would lead a comeback. Now, in a way maybe it was a blessing in disguise, as it allowed me to avoid watching three hours only to have my heart-broken, but I wasn't ready for that drive-by.

The year earlier, it worked perfectly when it had a lot of stakes, with me being able to watch the entire Colts vs. Ravens game on DVR when I returned home, enjoying every minute of that ridiculous chess-match. That said, I missed to many of the Sunday games. I missed most of the Colts loss to the Steelers, reaching home just in time to watch the fumble by Bettis and that ridiculously painful ending (still my 2nd worst loss as a sports fan - #1 being the Tuck Rule).

Overtime, I've gotten much better at avoiding seeing what happens. Be it memorizing the buttons that need to be pressed to open a recording prior to putting the TV on, or putting your phone on Airplane Mode to avoid texts. There's been some times I've really stretched the limits, like avoiding scores when taking flights and only watching games days later (2010 Divisional Round, when I returned from India), or avoiding watching the 2013 AFC Championship Game by watching The Godfather, Pt. 2 instead.

It all starts with those damn weekends in regional band. It's somewhat surprising those years coincided with my highest love - if not outright obsession - with football, which really wasn't a thing week-in and week-out until high school. Region Band still forced me to miss watching a bunch of games live, but it was the natural end result of being good at the tuba. And given what that led to in terms of the Orchestra side, a few all-day practices, and a few tape-delayed games isn't too much of a price to pay.

2019 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Review

Player of the Week: Derrick Henry  (RB, TEN)

This was one of the most impressive singular running displays in the playoffs in some time - the last back to have this many carries was Shaun Alexander in the 2005 NFC Championship Game. To have 34 carries against a good defense and only get stuffed (zero or negative yards) three times in absurd. His pounding running, but surprising shiftiness even when running inside kept the Titans offense ahead of the downs, and the Patriots off the field. It was novel on Twitter after the game to state how even with that great running performance the Titans scored 14 points, but if you replace Henry with an average running back, there is a chance the Titans get shutout in that game.


Runner-Up: Deshaun Watson  (QB, HOU)

I saw a tweet comparing Deshaun's miracle escape to that of Steve McNair in the penultimate play of Super Bowl XXXIV. That is hyperbole, but it isn't hyperbole to say that Deshaun Watson was amazing. The Bills secondary was definitely more porous than usual, but the Bills got consistent pressure and Watson fought through it all. He had to combat poor game-planning (DeAndre Hopkins in the slot for a half?!) and pressure after pressure, but made it out alive and got the Texans a signature playoff win.


Goat of the Week: Sean Payton  (NO)

Payton's issues in that game went way beyond just the truly puzzling clock management decisions in the 4th quarter. It was about the game as a whole. For an offense that was humming so well, the play-calling with teh constant heavy sets, the short screens against a team that had tremendous gap responsibility, the inability to keep more guys in protection. All of it. Payton has never been one for great in-game adjustments, but to me it seemed like they had the wrong game-plan from jump. At some point, he may start being open for half the criticism Mike McCarthy endured when coaching a similarly all-time QB talent to one Super Bowl and a slew of odd playoff losses.


Runner-Up: Tom Brady  (QB, NE)

Miss me with the 'he doesn't have weapons' talk. His three receiving targets are a guy that was productive as a #2/3 for years that the Patriots thought highly enough of to give up a 2nd round pick, a guy the Patriots thought highly enough of to draft with a 1st round pick, and a guy that recently was getting niche-HOF buzz (Edelman - and yes the HOF talk is ludicrous). He also had an OL that gave him plenty of time. At the end, Brady just looked like an old QB, which he is. But when someone says for years they've mastered aging and will play to 45, it is fair to ping them for just being like any other human who gets slower and less physically fearsome past 40. So many sprayed passes, so many odd decisions despite great protection. So much of the same iffy play we've seen all second half.


Surprise of the Week: Seattle Seahawks defensive line

If the Seahawks have any one clear weakness on defense, it is their lack of a consistent pass rush - with just 28 sacks and a bottom-quarter pressure rate. Then, admittedly against a team missing two of their top OL players (Brooks, Johnson), the Seahawks unleashed a pass rush of unholy fury. They'll need every bit of it if they hope to beat the Packers, but this was a great start. Clowney back was a huge help, but so were their depth guys, all playing better than they have in weeks. The Seahawks as a team didn't have a great game, but the pass rush made critical plays late to keep the Eagles miracle-comeback quashed.


Runner-Up: Houston Texans secondary

The Texans secondary struggled all year, and figured to continue that even with a healthier Bradley Roby. Instead, they did a great job against the smaller, speedy Bills receiver, never letting anyone aside from Josh Allen himself beat them deep. Yes, they were helped by Josh Allen's scatter-shot second half, but for what had been a bad secondary that was a truly strong performance against a good set of skill position players. Also nice practice for Hill, Waktins and Hardman.


Disappointment of the Week: Carson Wentz's Bad Luck

I want to be clear that I am not knocking Wentz for getting a concussion. I truly hope he recovers well. I am disappointed for Wentz. I think Carson Wentz is a great QB. Unlike Tom Brady, he was saddled with a bad supporting cast, and played inspired football driving them to a division title. He probably should have been league MVP in 2017, and then saw his backup win a Super Bowl. He finally had his chance in the playoffs and had to leave before a quarter was over. I truly hope he has a strong, healthy 2020 season, and is gifted with his whole team having the same.


Runner-Up: the Tre'davious White vs. Deandre Hopkins duel

It was billed all week as the matchup to watch, and then the Texans went and put Hopkins in the slot, where he looked lost and the Bills were able to easily handle. The Bills realized the error of their ways, switched it up, and then White was absolutely no math in teh second half. Credit Nuke and Watson for negating a great cornerback, but for a game bereft of actual great matchups it would have been nice to see a closer competition there.


Team Performance of the Week: Minnesota Vikings defense

The Vikings had the league's best defense in 2017. They were Top-5 last year. This year they were Top-10, with dropoffs from Everson Griffen and a revolving door at cornerback. Against the hottest offense in the league, they reverted straight back to 2017 form - the only reason the Vikings were in that game at all. Griffen and Hunter were amazing, aided by a pretty genius switch to bring them inside on key downs. They dominated one of the league's better OLs from start to finishing, harrassing Brees into throwing continuously short of the sticks. The safety tandem was great in run support and stopping deep passes. A group of people were capable against Michael Thomas. If not for Taysom Hill, the Saints would barely have crossed 10. That was an awesome performance.


Runner-Up: Minnesota Vikings skill position players

Hey, it's more love for the Vikings! Truly though, Dalvin Cook was great, up until some maddenning run-run-pass series at the end. Stefon Diggs, once he stopped whining, was strong with a couple great catches in traffic - especially the one at the goal line to set-up the TD to make it 20-10. Kyle Rudolph was strong and attacked that game winner. And of course there's Adam Thielen, seemingly finally healthy, with huge over the shoulder catches, a great heads-up play to swing the ball over to pick up a key first down, and even some great blocks. The Vikings live and die on their top-flight talent, and all were well alive in this one.


Team Laydown of the Week: New Orleans Saints O-Line

The converese of the Vikings defensive dominance was an OL that was purely overwhelmed at work. All-pro level players like Ramy Ramczyk were at a loss nearly all game. The interior of the line was consistently overwhelmed when faced with blocking DEs - it was like watching Super Bowl XLII for how successful that tactic was. They opened basically no running lanes when it was anyone other than Taysom Hill running. Add to this it all happened at home. That was just bad from a normally stout unit.


Runner-Up: All the Game Management

That whole weekend featured some truly bizarre game management. The best game was probably Seahawks-Eagles in that sense, but even there was ideas like Pederson repeatedly trying semi-long 4th downs with McCown. Anyway, you had Houston trying QB sneaks on essentially 4th and 2, Belichick and Vrabel both with terrible punts (even if Vrabel's came with the hilarious chicanery to drain clock). There was everythign Sean Payton did with his not using timeouts - even when one would have kept ten more seconds on the clock. It was all just so bad it made you feel like you were watching college football all weekend.


Storyline that will Beat into the Ground: Momentum of wild card teams

We're already hearing it, about how 'hot' the winners from teh Wild Card round were. How Russell Wilson is in the zone and DK Metcalf are unstoppable. How Kirk Cousins can let loose. How no one can stop Derrick Henry. How the Texans already beat the Chiefs. For the second straight year, three road teams won in Wild Card Weekend. Last year, all of zero road teams won in Divisional Round. I'm not saying that will happen, but the NFL cognescenti have a habit of forgetting one of the reasons the four teams that got a bye did get a bye is because they are on the whole awesome (Packers excluded, maybe).


Storyline that Should be Beat into the Ground: The changing of the guard

For the first time ever, seven of eight divisional round teams did not make the divisional round the prior year (the Chiefs being the only holdover). It seems a bit more meaningful this time since we are without Brady for the first time since 2009, and Brees is out as well - joined by not having Roethlisberger (or Rivers). With just using those three alone, you have to go back to 2002 for the last time none of the three were QBing a team in this round (to be fair, I include Ben only so it adds a rep for 2008). Instead we have Watson vs. Mahomes - with Lamar potentially waiting in the wings, the three QBs that could do a Brady/Manning/Roethlisberger routine for the 2020s like those three did for 2003-2016. On the other side you have four of the most expensive QBs in the league - which should put to rest this idea that you can't win with an expensive QB. It should be a great divisional round precisely because it is so different than usual.

2019 NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Round Picks

(A5) Buffalo Bills (10-6)  @  (A4) Houston Texans (10-6)

Sat 4:35  -  ESPN  |  HOU -3.0

State of the Teams: For the Texans, getting Watt back will be huge - assuming he is something real and not just a shell of his former incredible self. The other key has been Will Fuller, who should play but might be on limited snaps. On the whole, the Texans need these frontline guys because they haven't been able to get any production from their depth. The Bills are fairly healthy, and playing well. Allen has settled into a more consistent version of the offense. Singletary has been a strong running back. The team has most of their key guys healthy and ready, a rarity for any team this time of year.

Matchup: This is a nice matchup of opposites. The Bills strong defense can force a lot of three and outs, which has been a weak point for the Texans throughout the year. The Bills are uniquely set-up to win that side of the matchup, also doing well against top WRs (though Hopkins did pretty well against White). The Bills excel at limiting great plays, having probably the league's best safety tandem, and the Texans rely on those. The other side of the matchup is weakness against weakness. The only real strength on teh Texans side is forcing turnovers, as they can't really generate consistent pressure (assuming Watt isn't 100%). Of course, the Bills have been great at limiting turnovers since mid-way through the season in waht seems to be a very concerted effort. Most advanced stats would point to the Bills being able to win both matchups.

Interesting Note: The Texans are 1-3 in the playoffs under Bill O'Brien, including 1-2 in this exact spot (4:30pm Saturday Wild Card game - aka the Texans special). The one win was also against the 2016 Raiders who were starting Connor Cook after Derek Carr broke his leg.

The Pick: The Texans are a high-variance team which in theory should help them in the playoffs, but being at home you don't want to be truly high variance - that skill is better for an underdog that needs to play up. The Bills are a bad matchup for Houston, able to stop what the Texans do best, and not do what the Texans stop the most. To me, the O'Brien Texans are going to continue their playoff irrelevantness.

Bills 20  Texans 17  (BUF +3)

(A6) Tennessee Titans (9-7)  @  (A3) New England Patriots (12-4)

Sat 8:15  -  CBS  |  NE -5.0

State of the Teams: For the Titans, is not easy to overstate just how good that offense has been with Ryan Tannehill in charge. 3rd in Weighted offensive DVOA, with the best statistical passing game this side of Drew Brees. 30 points per game. All of it. Of course, their defense isn't any better in this stretch than it was when Mariota played, but the offense is real. There is some things that are going to fall off eventually (3rd down offense, deep passing efficiency), but there's no guarantee when that drop will happen. On the Patriots side, they are relatively healthy, but the effectiveness of Edelman will be critical. He was poor against Miami, but some of that was due to double coverage. The OL is playing a bit better and the defense is healthy, if as a whole not as effective. A lot of how you feel about New England comes down to how much of their strong performance is just due to the abject thrash they played early on.

Matchup: It may not seem as directly apparent as the first matchup, but there are some interesting contrasts in opposites here too. The Titans were the league's best red zone team (in terms of converting chances into TDs), while being the 2nd worst defensively. New England was 26th on offense and 4th on defense. The Titans rarely turn it over (especially true under Tannehill) while the Patriots feast on turnovers. The Titans offense can take advantage of the relative weakness of the Patriots defense (rushing), but I really worry that the Titans defense is jsut perfect for the Patriots to abuse. The Titans are not good against running backs, and are truly bad at generating pressure. Unless we get some Vrabel-esque genius ways of generating pressure, Brady should get more time than normal.

Interesting Note: Over the last two seasons, the Patriots are 2-4 against ex-Belichick assistants, with teh wins being Week 1 against Houston last year (27-20), and Week 2 against prime-tanking Miami (43-0). In that span, they've lost to Matt Patricia (26-10), Bill O'Brien (28-22), Brian Flores (27-24) and Mike Vrabel (34-10).

The Pick: The Titan are better than their record, and the Patriots as currently constituted are worse. It says something the Patriots are 12-4 against the worst schedule in teh NFL. That all said, with cold, rainy weather expected, turnovers could play a large role, and I trust the Patriots to generate them more than the Titans, and a QB who has melted down in Foxboro before (albeit, in a previous football lifetime) to prevent them.

Titans 20  Patriots 27  (NE -5.0)

 (N6) Minnesota Vikings (10-6)  @  (N3) New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Sun 1:05  -  FOX  |  NO -7.5

State of the Teams: The Saints are hot, obviously. Aside from the truly bizarre loss to Atlanta (26-9, Brees sacked six times) their only loss since Brees came back was the 46-48 loss to the niners. Brees has been incredible in the second half, I truly believe he is better off for missing five games. He will have to be to hold up across the playoffs given the injuries to Marcus Davenport and Sheldon Rankins on the defensive side. It makes it easier for other teams to key on Cam Jordan. The Vikings of course are struggling with a few injuries as well, with Mackensie Alexander now out and Dalvin Cook maybe not at 100%. Getting Cook back will be key as he helps tremendously in the passing game, and will be crucial against a Saints team that is susceptible against running backs.

Matchup: On the whole, the Saints are the better team. Their offense clearly has the matchup edge against teh Vikings defense. Their OL is great, Brees is awesome against the blitz, and Michael Thomas should abuse Xavier Rhodes or whoever they attempt to put on him. That all said, there are a few areas the Vikings can look to compete on. First, the Vikings have a clear red zone advantage, being a better red zone offense and defense than the Saints, and being better defensively than the Saints are offensively. Also, the Vikings are very good at play action, which the Saints sometimes struggle against - the Saints are much better defensively against teams they know will pass, but see what happens against the Titans or 49ers?

Interesting Note: Kirk Cousins may be awful on Monday Night football, but he's perfectly good at 1pm starts, going 35-20-1 in his career, with a 99/39 TD/INT split and a 98.7 passer rating. Also, he's been perfectly fine on Sunday Night football, going 6-1 in his career (stunning, I know).

The Pick: I think the Saints win the game because their end-line talent is just better and matches up well, but the red zone advantages and specific play-selection advantages on the Minnesota side do give me pause, and have me thinking the Vikings can keep it closer than expected. The Saints have been so on-mark lately they may find it a bit contentious if forced into a few field goals unexpectedly.

Vikings 24  Saints 30  (MIN +7.5)

(N5) Seattle Seahawks (11-5)  @  (N4) Philadelphia Eagles (9-7)

Sun 4:40  -  NBC  |  SEA -1.5

State of the Teams: It's nice when you want to think about, analyze and then pick a game for neither team to be healthy in any way. The Seahawks should get Quandre Diggs back, but are still going to be without their LT, their top running backs (and Marshawn did nothing in that game to show me he's in any way back), and other injuries to various receivers. On th other side, holy god are the Eagles injured. I guess Miles Sanders is supposed to play, and Lane Johnson will be back, but no Brandin Brooks, no umpteen receivers, probably no Zach Ertz. Essentially neither team is healthy at all. Both sides have shown an ability to play off script or without these top weapons, but in different ways. The Eagles have gotten more confined, more limited, but still effective at moving the ball. The Seahawks have basically become even more backyard football style.

Matchup: Honestly, a lot of the matchups favor the Eagles here - again with the giant caveat that all season-long stats could be useless given injuries. To start, the Eagles are very good on both 3rd down (4th overall) and red zone (#3 offense, #14 defense), while the Seahawks are either middling (16th on 3rd downs), or bad (26th red zone defense). The Eagles defensive strength is against the run, which the Seahawks are probably not great in with Carson gome, but will probably stick to for far too long. The Eeagles OL may be limited with Johnson gimpy and Brooks out, but the Seahawks pass rush is middling. The Eagles don't turn it over, while the Seahawks rely on them. Now again, all of these may be useless, but there we go.

Interesting Note: There have been 13 teams to win a division with under 10 wins in the NFL since the 2002 realignment. Those teams went 9-4 in their home Wild Card round games, and in all but one of those matchups were playing a team with 10 or more wins.

The Pick: Look, I probably cound have looked for stats that favor Seattle as well (they should win their passing game vs. Eagles pass defense matchup) but you don't have to look to hard to see where the Eagles are better, and the biggest mismatch may be on the coaching side between the Eagles strong game management against Brian Schottenheimer's run-run-pass reliance. What gives me a lot of pause is the Eagles four-game win streak came exclusively against the NFC East, but I just think a lot of the underlying and matchup stats point in one direction. As does history with doubting sub-10-win division winners.

Seahawks 17  Eagles 20  (PHI +1.5)

2019 NFL Playoffs: NFC Primer

6.) Minnesota Vikings  (10-6  =  407-303)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 407 ptf (8th), 303 pta (5th), 5.656 ydf (16th), 5,465 yda (14th)
= Outsiders: 15.4% team (10th), 4.6% off (10th), -9.9% def (7th), 0.8% st (14th)

Offense: The Vikings offense on paper is good but not great, which is nice as it lines up perfectly with how you would think they would perform. 10th by DVOA passing, 15th rushing, 11th on yards per drive, 10th on red zone efficiency. Basically they are a bottom-end but deserving playoff caliber offense. Cousins cooled off slightly towards the end of the year, partly due to natural regression, and partly to Adam Thielen's injuries. In a deep NFC playoff field, being somewhat middling on turnover rate and other stats just doesn't stand out. Dalvin Cook had a beautiful 1,500 yard-for-scrimmage season, with a 80% catch rate to boot, and he might be crucial as a check-down option against the top pass rushes that the NFC playoff field can boast. They really need Thielen to be healthy and productive - his numbers were shockingly low with 30 catches in the partial 10 games he played. That won't cut it. Rank: 5th

Defense: The Vikings defense is essentially a lower-variance, better version of their offense. Good but not truly great at anything aside from forcing turnovers (3rd best rate in the league). The secondary has been a jumble and had consistency issues, but their trio of safeties (Smith, Harris, Sendejo) were good in cleaning things up and snagging 11 interceptions. The front-seven is the strength, pushing them to 48 sacks, and a Top-10 ranking agaisnt both the run and pass - driven a lot by strong pass defense numbers against running backs and TEs. This is not the unit that was so good in 2017, primarily because of the issues in the secondary, but their front is about as good at pushign the pocket and getting consistent pressure, led by their superstar Danielle Hunter and his 14.5 sacks. Rank: 2nd

Interesting Note: This is the 10th time the Minnnesota Vikings have made the playoffs in the last 22 years ('98, '99, '00, '04, '08, '09, '12, '15, '17 and now '19). This is also the 9th different starting QB they will put forward in their playoff runs, starting the following names: Randall Cunnigham, Jeff George, Daunte Culpepper (only guy to start more than one playoff year), Tarvaris Jackson, Brett Favre, Christian Ponder (technically, Joe Webb), Teddy Bridgewater, Case Keenum and now Kirk Cousins.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2014 Lions, a team that went 11-5 with a very good defense anchored by Suh and a series of good front-seven players. They had a 'worse than his numbers' QB who was fueled by a dominant receiver. That team ended up probably deserving to beat a better Dallas team int eh Wild Card round if not for a picked-up pass interference flag.

Top-2 Seed they match up best with: San Francisco. Their turnover forcing defense is better suited to capitalize on the mistakes Garappolo will throw up, and their good OL can neutralize the 49ers key defensive strength to some degree.



5.) Seattle Seahawks  (11-5  =  405-398)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 405 ptf (9th), 398 pta (22nd), 5,991 ydf (8th), 6,106 yda (26th)
= Outsiders: 13.8% team (8th), 17.4% off (5th), 2.7% def (18th), -0.9% st (20th)

Offense: Russell Wilson probably shouldn't be so overlooked as an MVP candidate. He's probably now third in most people's minds, but given what he had to play with, you can easily make the argument he's done the most with the least. His pass protection actually has done well down the stretch, but losing Duane Brown is a bit hit, They ended up #4 passing and #6 rushing by DVOA, surprising especially on the running side, but you have to think that wouldn;t have been as good with teh corpse of Marshawn Lynch. No, this is about Wilson doing what he always does, limit turnovers and somehow cobble together 20-30 points every game. They faced a really tough series of defenses which masks a much more consistent, efficient offense than the numbers would show. Rank: 3rd

Defense: Welcome the bizarro Seahawks, a Top-5 offense by advanced numbers, and #18 by defensive DVOA, and not too much better by weighted DVOA. They are relatively better against the pass, but are still middling. They don't get sacks (just 28 for the year), but do force turnovers with the 4th highest forced turnover rate. The team is fairly injured but most of the banged-up guys will play (Clowney, Griffin, Wagner, Kendricks). The Seahawks have scheme and legacy on their side, but the numbers just do not support this being anything other than a perfectly average defense that does one thing that isn't too predictable (force turnovers). To think a Seahawks team would be led in sacks by a guy with just 4.0, or rank 26th in red zone efficiency is shocking. Rank: 6th

Interesting Note: This is the lowest point differential for an NFC playoff team with 10+ wins since realignment in 2002. The Seahawks, if they gained that final few inches and stole the division, would have had the worst point differential ever for a 12-4 team in that scenario (+13). All indications are that this is just not that good of a team.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2010 Colts. A once proud team on both sides of the ball making the playoffs solely due to the brilliance of their QB pushing their offense up, with a defense that is not good but has a habit of giving up fewer points than you would expect. That team ended up losing to the Jets in the Wild Card round.

Top-2 Seed they match up best with: San Francisco, purely because they've shown on two occassions that they can play them fairly well. Part of the relative matchup advantages are the same as the Vikings, such as their ability to force turnovers.


4.) Philadelphia Eagles  (9-7  =  385-354)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 385 ptf (12th), 354 pta (15th), 5,772 ydf (14th), 5,307 yda (10th)
= Outsiders: 6.5% team (11th), 2.6% off (14th), -4.0% def (12th), 0.0% (19th)

Offense: The Eagles having a respectable offense this year is truly just a sign of how good Pederson is as a coach, and Wentz is as a QB. There is no reason for them to be anywhere near respectable on that side of the ball. They do a couple of things really well, namely not turning it over, and having a surprisingly great red zone offense (3rd best in NFL), something that again points to Pederson's great playcalling. Wentz has become hyper-conservative and accurate instead of the semi-mad-bomber type he was in  2017-18. The loss of Ertz will be huge, as while Goedert is a good replacement, they run a ton of 2-TE sets which now become less effective. Sanders and Scott have been great in the run game (Eagles rank Top-10 by DVOA) and as pass catchers. There is some decent stuff here, and again if they can get to the red zone they're top-notch. They just don't get there nearly as much as needed. Rank: 6th

Defense: Ok, so the reason the Eagles are in the playoffs is also largely due to their still stout defense. Their DL rotation is still going strong, driving them to a Top-5 hurry rate in the NFL without any true standout star (Fletcher Cox had a quiet season for him). The DL rotation shows up bigger in their rushing defense, which ranks 4th by DVOA. They don't force many turnovers, but are great getting off the field on 3rd down (4th best rate at 34.1%), and stopping drives alltogether. Yes, it is a jumble of randoms in the secondary but Sidney Jones's strong play down the stretch is a good surprise add for them. The Eagles are not as fearsome as their defenses in 2017-18, but given the injuries and lowered effectiveness of the key older mainstays (Cox, Graham), they're still doing quite well. Rank: 4th

Interesting Note: The Eagles are the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons, each year having less than 10 wins. Ok, I didn't go through every year, but went back about 20 years and couldn't find one example, so at minimum that takes us before realignment.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2018 Eagles. Yeah, didn't have to think that hard about this one. It is surprising how similar these Eagles are to last years. Of course, last year they were starting Nick Foles come playoff time, but then again Foles had his weapons. On defense, they had the exact same strengths - great in the red zone, great on third down. That team got the double-doink to beat Chicago and came about 30 yards away from shocking the Saints.

Top-2 Seed they match up best with: Green Bay. Again, they've beaten them once already this year - in Green Bay. Of course, that team had actual receivers. Overall though, they force teams into punts and field goals, which the Packers are wont to do on their offensive end anyway. The Packers strength this year has been running the ball, which lines up well with the Eagles best strength.


3.) New Orleans Saints  (13-3  =  458-341)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 458 ptf (3rd), 341 pta (13th), 5,982 (9th), 5,329 (11th)
= Outsiders: 29.3% team (4th), 21.3% off (4th), -4.3% def (11th), 3.6% st (3rd)

Offense: We have to do some mental adjustments when looking at the Saints offense, despite them going 5-0 with Bridgewater. Their offense is #4 in DVOA, but go up to 2nd if you weigh the later games more heavily. Brees had another monster season, with a 116 passer rating, a lower pick rate than he's ever had. You can make an argument he was helped by missing a few games, keeping him fresher compared to say last season where he was very clearly worse at the end of the year. Michael Thomas is nigh uncoverable, a second straight year with an 80% catch rate. The emergence of Jared Cook gives them another huge matchup nightmare. This offense is great in every way, even at the things that are mostly un-controllable, losing just two fumbles all year. If there is any down-point, they are fairly average in the red zone, but again part of that is the Bridgewater games skewing the numbers. On the whole, they are the best offense in the NFC. Rank: 1st

Defense: The Saints are above-average (like ranking between 10th-15th) on basically every measure, other than a 5th ranked rush defense by DVOA. A quick rundown: 13th by passing defense DVOA, 12th in yards-per-drive, 13th in turnovers-per-drive, 16th in points-per-drive, 10th in sack rate, 20th in red zone defense. One nice strength is #6 in 3rd down defense. Cameron Jordan had an insane season with 15.5 sacks and 25 overall QB hits, but the rest of the pass rush was very much by comittee. Dennis Allen has done a nice job coordinating this unit, but there is a sense they are stagnating - no better on defense than either of the past two seasons. Of course, when you pair an average defense with a great offense, you can still get a pretty special result. The rank compared to the rest of the playoff field is low, but that's more to say how good the level of defense is in this playoff field. Rank: 5th

Interesting Note: There have been just three teams to go 13-3 and not get a first round bye. The first was the 1999 Titans, but that was in the 3-division-per-conference era, and they had the tough luck of being in the same division as the 14-2 Jaguars. The other two teams: the 2011 and now 2019 Saints, both QBed by Drew Brees, and losing out to the same two teams (49ers and Packers) each time.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2017 Saints. Look, I'm not just picking a recent year for the same team on purpose, but the similarities are striking. Didn't get a bye, but had a ~30% overall DVOA (ranked 1st that year). Great offense (2nd by DVOA), good but not great defense (8th). In the end, they lost to a #2 seed in the Divisional Round in a little thing we like to call the Minneapolis Miracle.

Top-2 Seed they match up best with: Green Bay. They have the rush defense to neutralize Aaron Jones. Their offense simply but is better than the Packers defense in every way. If anything, I'm surprised I went with San Francisco for any of these teams as a better matchup, As we'll get to, the 2019 Packers may be the most ineffectual #2 seed ever.


2.) Green Bay Packers  (13-3  =  376-313)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 376 ptf (15th), 313 pta (9th), 5,528 ydf (18th), 5,642 yda (18th)
= Outsiders: 7.7% team (10th), 6.5% off (8th), -1.1% def (15th), 0.1% st (18th)

Offense: It has been weird watching the 'Is Aaron Rodgers declining?' become a mainstream thing. He's basically been like this for five years now, having a truly bad (by stats) end to 2015, and not having a truly great season since. Of course, he has his moments, like the hail mary against Arizona in 2015, or the run to the NFC Championship Game the next year. But this is what Rodgers is. Now, the Packers still ranked #11 in passing offense efficiency, but they ranked 4th in rushing efficiency. Aaron Jones had a great all-purpose year. Devante Adams is Rodgers' only trusted target, but Allan Lazard has become a more effective option late in the season. The Packers still do the one thing Rodgers does at an insane level - not turn it over. Also have a Top-5 red zone offense which should help because they get into the red zone less and less frequently. Rank: 4th

Defense: They are the almost one-for-one inverse of the Packers offense. They are better against the pass than the run (#10 in DVOA vs. #23). They force turnovers at a Top-10 rate. They give up long drives. They do have the 6th best red zone rate in the NFL, which is a big help in the playoffs where they will be playing lower scoring games. It's nice to see an old school pass rush, with their two good 3-4 OLBs each having 12+ sacks, and the rest of the team having far less. The Smith's have been incredibly productive in their first season in Green Bay. There is really nothing truly notable about the Packers defense other than that red zone rate, and their conventionality. Rank: 4th

Interesting Note: Unless they win the Super Bowl, this will probably not be a very well remembered season in the Rodgers era. But somehow this season is the 2nd best record the Packers have had under Aaron Rodgers, and just their 3rd season with more than 12 wins (2011, 2014).

Playoff Doppelganger: 2008 Panthers, probably the last team to earn a 1st round bye that was so non-exceptional. That said, that Pantehrs team had a truly great run-game (DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart), but had a similar point differential, similar string of close games, and a two-headed pass rush on defense. They of course melted down in a 13-33 loss to the Cardinals.


1.) San Francisco 49ers  (13-3  =  479-310)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 479 ptf (2nd), 310 pta (8th), 6,097 ydf (4th), 4,509 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: 27.9% team (5th), 7.2% off (7th), -19.8% def (2nd), 1.0% st (12th)

Offense: The 49ers are the inverse of so many of the offenses in the playoff field - specifically they move the ball well with good efficiency (#5 3rd down rate), but they do turn it over too much. Garoppolo cut down his turnovers as the season went on, but they still are bottom half in both that and red zone efficiency. But they move the ball well. Jimmy G completed nearly 70% of his passes with a y/a of 8.4, which is really good. They have three interchangeable running backs that all had good effiency (all above 4.0 y/c). Their passing offense improved whole-heartedly when Emmanuel Sanders came on board, and have scored 20+ points in nine of their last ten games (the exception being their 17-20 loss to the Ravens). The 49ers offense picked it up at just the right time as well, compensating well for an injured defense. Rank: 2nd

Defense: Halfway through the season the 49ers were nearly Patriots level good. Just like the Patriots, they regressed a bit, but theirs was a more pronounced regression due to injuries. Most of the injured guys will be back (Dee Ford, K'wuan Williams) and the replacements are improving. The pass rush rotation should get back to their seven deep selves in the playoffs, which will be key for a unit that could be a huge strength in the playoffs. For the year, they were #2 against the pass (and not far behind the Pats), and #11 against the rush, and #2 overall in yards-per-drive allowed. They are still an elite unit, with the 2nd best 3rd down rate in the league. They led the league in hurries, and probably should have had more sacks with a more normal sacks/hurry percentage. If there is any glaring issue, it is a 21st ranked red zone defense, part of the reason why they ended up 8th in points allowed. That all said, with guys returning from injuries, they should inherit their place again. Rank: 1st

Interesting Note: The 49ers are the only NFC team to have any red in their uniform. Why is this strange? Well, on the AFC side, all but one team features red, and the one that doesn't technically does if you count the little bit of red in the Maryland State Flag (Baltimore).

Playoff Doppelganger: 2015 Panthers. This one may come back to bite me, but those Panthers had a very similar points scored/allowed profile (500-308 for them). They had the #2 defense in the league behind a historically great '15 Broncos unit, one that scored better in advanced stats than conventional. They had a slightly turnover prone offense that got a lot better as the season went on. That team went on to hold off Seattle 31-24 (they led 31-0), and then rolled a great Arizona team 49-15 in one of the most dominant displays I've seen. Likely this team won't win their NFC Title Game 49-15.

2019 NFL Playoffs: AFC Primer

6.) Tennessee Titans  (9-7  =  402-331)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 402 ptf (10th), 331 pta (12th), 5,805 ydf (12th), 5,752 yda (21st)
= Outsiders: 8.6% team (9th), 12.9% off (6th), 1.0% def (16th), -3.2% st (29th)

Offense: The team changed its mentality completely when it switched to Ryan Tannehill after getting shutout against Denver. They were 7-3 as a whole in Tannehills starts, scoring on average 30.2 ppg in those games, never lower than 20. Tannehill himself was sack prone, but ended with a 117.5 passer rating, largely built off of a ridiculous 9.6 y/a. He showed all the promise he only intermittently did in Miami. Obviously, Derrick Henry is the other notable star, and will be invaluable against the Patriots relatively weaker run defense, but AJ Brown is anotehr star with his 20 yards-per-catch average. It's in some ways a boom-or-bust offense, but they've boomed for ten straight weeks now, with a high, high floor. The Titans are incredibly balanced, #5 in rushing DVOA, #6 in passing DVOA, and overall, when adjusted to weigh the Tannehill games more closely, #3 overall. Rank: 3rd

Defense: On the other hand, even in the 10-game Tannehill stretch, the defense was not all that good, giving up on average of 23.9 ppg (and yes, that indicates in this win streak, it has been a lot of close wins). By DVOA, they are actually good against the run (#10), but weak against the pass (#21). They cobbled together 43 sacks without any standout pass rushers (Harold Landry led the team with 9). Their cornerbacks are better on paper than in reality. Overall the defense is not very talented, and doesn't really do anything all that well. The only potential saving grace s they are fairly healthy. Rank: 5th

Interesting Note: The Titans have now gone 9-7 in four straight seasons, under two different head coaches and multiple quarterbacks. One of those years, they made the playoffs and even won a playoff game (2017), but for some reason this year feels different.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2018 Colts. Those Colts also had a great 10-game stretch to end the season (they went 9-1), and while it wasn't a new QB, it was an Andrew Luck who was given the chance to open it up. They were a great, dynamic offense, with a cobbled-together defense of spare parts. They jumped out early in their wild card game, but lost meekly and easily to a much better bye-worth team.

Top-2 Seed they match up the best with: Baltimore, though in reality it isn't a great matchup. The relative strength of their defense is their run defense, which obviously is helpful against the Ravens historically voluminous rushing attack. Problem is for them the Ravens are a great red zone defense, and obviously can pass quite well as well.


5.) Buffalo Bills  (10-6  =  314-259)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 314 ptf (23rd), 259 pta (2nd), 5,283 ydf (24th), 4,772 yda (2nd)
= Outsiders: 2.7% team (13th), -7.3% off (22nd), -11.3% def (6th), -1.2% st (21st)

Offense: The Bills aren't a good offense. That much is pretty obvious. Easily the worst in the playoffs - and yes, that includes their more notable AFC East partners. Josh Allen has improved, and may continue to do so, but at this point for him to succeed there has to be a lot of shot plays and gaming. The most helpful part of his game is cutting down on the turnovers, dropping his interception rate to 2% (perfectly average in 209 NFL). They aren't great at running (#17 in DVOA) and worse at passing (#23). They don't have long drives, they don't have great red zone numbers. I hate to overplay this point, but there's a reason they only crossed 30 points once on the season. Rank: 6th

Defense: Luckily for the Bills, the other half of the game exists, and they are great on defense. Their point total (2nd best) probably overstates how good they are - a lot is driven by a weak schedule. But even by advanced stats, they are squarely in the Top-5 (#5 in DVOA, Pass DVOA, within the Top-5 in yards per drive and forcing 3-and-outs). The secondary gets the headlines, with All-pro Tre'davious White, and great years from their safety duo. Sean McDermott has done his best to piece together a workable pass ruhs, but if there's any weakness on the defense it is that and their run defense. If you can make it a front-7 game, they are vulnerable, but if you need to pass, there's only a couple teams better positioned. Rank: 3rd

Interesting Note:

Playoff Doppelganger: 2010 Jets. They were also the last non-New England AFC East team to get into the playoffs and actually seem worth of winning a game (so, not the '16 Dolphins and '17 Bills). That Jets team also had a great pass defense, a cobbled-together pass rush, and a QB who got better by playing safer.

Top-2 Seed they match up the best with: Kansas City. It goes to being better pass defense than run defense, a more workable matchup against a pass-defense first team like the Chiefs. Again, I don't see either of the two wild card teams being able to really have much of a chance if they were to win this week.


4.) Houston Texans  (10-6  =  378-385)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 378 ptf (14th), 385 pta (19th), 5,792 ydf (13th), 6,213 yda (28th)
= Outsiders: -5.8% team (19th), 0.3% off (17th), 8.9% def (26th), 2.9% st (5th)

Offense: The Texans are a weird team that looks on paper much better than they actually performed. They had some notable high moments on offense - the 53 points against Atlanta, the 28 points against New England, but the list is sparse. Honestly, it is hard to point out what exactly they do well other than have some top weapons. They are bottom half on turnover rate, and #15 passing and #11 rushing. Will Fuller seems to be out, and for some reason, he seems to be the necessary chess piece to make the offense work. Rank: 5th

Defense: As scattershot as the offense seems, the defense is worse. In reality, it is a bit surprising they held off the Titans - though credit them for the Week 15 win in Tennessee that essentially clinched it. Defensively, the one good thing they do is force turnovers, but between that they give up the 2nd most yards per drive, and are bottom-10 against both pass and run by DVOA. JJ Watt's potential return could bring back some strength to a pass rush that has been meek throughout the season, but if you're counting on a player who missed 10 games to magically come back you know you're in a bad spot. Rank: 6th

Interesting Note: The Texans have now won the AFC South six times this decade ('11, '12, '15, '16, '18, '19), tying them for 2nd league-wide for most division titles in the 2010s (Pats obviously #1 with all 10; Houston tied with the Packers).

Playoff Doppelganger:

Top-2 Seed they match up the best with: Kansas City. Really only because Baltimore is just better. They did beat a Mahomes-led Chiefs team earlier this year, but Mahomes does seem healthier now than he did then. Defensively they match up pretty horrifically with both, but their offense has a better chance against a relatively weaker Chiefs defense.


3.) New England Patriots  (12-4  =  420-225)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 420 ptf (7th), 225 pta (1st), 5,664 ydf (15th), 4T,414 yda (1st)
= Outsiders: 29.9% team (3rd), 4.1% off (11th), -24.6% def (1st), 1.2% st (11th)

Offense: So, what do the Patriots actually do well on offense. At this point, it really is one thing: limiting turnovers. They are #3 in turnover rate on offense, and it is more than Brady. Now, a lot of it has to do with the league-high throwaways, but the lack of turnovers is a key skill for a defense-first team. Aside from that, they have a high 3-and-out rate, a poor red-zone rate, and are squarely a bottom half offense if you take out turnovers (or lack of them, in their case). They are #14 passing by DVOA and #16 rushing - if it means anything they play to their relative strength as the pass-happiest team in the league. Though given Brady's accuracy struggles, that may not be a great thing. Rank: 5th

Defense: In their first seven games, the Patriots never gave up more than one TD on defense. Halfway through the season, they were on historic pace for scoring defense. Of course, everyone pointed out the truly awful schedule they faced, a parade of the worst teams in the league. And you know what? They were somewhat right. At the end, the Patriots are just a ho-hum best defense in the league, pretty similar statistically to the 2017 Jaguars, or 2013-14 Seahawks, Rank:or 2011 Ravens. That's not a bad thing. They are still the best defense in the league, at preventing yards, at preventing points, at turning you over, all of it. But not historically so, and it should be noted when they played good offenses, the defense looked only above average. Rank: 1st

Interesting Note: This is the first time since 2009 the Patriots are playing on Wild Card Weekend, but like most things, this comes down to luck. Until this season, the Patriots had gone 12-4 or better twelve times, and got a bye 11 of those years ('06 the exception), but had also gone 11-5 twice and gotten a bye ('01, '18).

Playoff Doppelganger: 2018 Bears. Yes, I just compared this team to one QBed by Mitch Trubisky. The Bears last year had a truly great defense, with a super high turnover rate, and ability to completely erase bad teams. They also had a low-accuracy QB who could muster 20-30 points when required, but had a penchant for wild displays of spraying passes.

Top-2 Seed they match up best with: Kansas CIty. The Patriots have a historic pass defense. They have a merely good rush defense. As they showed already, the Ravens cut them up drive after drive, and the Chiefs, while doing enough to win, were placcid in the second half stuck on 23 points.


2.) Kansas City Chiefs  (12-4  =  451-308)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 451 ptf (5th), 308 pta (7th), 6,067 ydf (6th), 5,594 yda (17th)
= Outsiders: 30.2% team (2nd), 22.7% off (3rd), -3.4% def (14th), 4.1% st (2nd)

Offense: It's good that Matt Moore played fairly well and that Mahomes took a few weeks to get back in rhythm as we don't really have to adjust out stats for those games. On the whole, even with some growing pains and Mahomes injury, the Chiefs remain a superb offense. A quick summary: They are #3 in offensive DVOA (#2 passing), they were #3 in yards per drive, #3 in limiting turnvoers (and some of that was a flukily high fumble rate), and of course they have probably still the best pure-passing threat at QB in Mahomes, who improved his pocket presence and cut down his interceptions. There is one otherworldly offense this year, but in the crowded mix of great offenses (most of them in the NFC), the Chiefs are still very much holding their own. Rank: 2nd

Defense: The Chiefs defense improved over the second half of the season, though a lot of that improvement was due to playing worse teams (see the back-to-back three points allowed to the Broncos and Bears). They are to some degree the inverse of the offense, ranking 25th in yards allowed per drive, but #5 in forcing interceptions, and having a vastly improved red zone defense. With Frank Clark back fully healthy, their pass rush improved heavily late in teh season, and their low sack rate compared to pressure rate speaks to a higher potential. The Chiefs need to be a complementary unit on defense, and that they did quite well. Rank: 4th

Interesting Note: The Chiefs are the first team not QBed by Tom Brady or Peyton Manning to earn a bye in back-to-back seasons since the 2013-14 Seahawks. Before them, you have to go back to the 2011-12 49ers and then surprisingly, the 05-06 Bears.

Playoff Doppelganger: 2014 Broncos, but with a healthy QB. The 2014 Broncos got a #2 seed with a similar record and scoring margins. Their offense was following up a historic season and was still good (Manning injuries aside). Their defense ranked a whole lot better on advanced stats than conventional, and if Manning was healthy, probably would have pushed them to the Championship game.


1.) Baltimore Ravens  (14-2  =  531-282)

Stat Breakdown:
= Conventional: 531 ptf (1st), 282 pta (3rd), 6,521 ydf (2nd), 4,809 (4th)
= Outsiders: 41.5% team (1st), 27.5% off (1st), -12.7% def (4th), 1.3% st (10th)

Offense: Obviously, everyone realizes how good the Ravens rushing attack was. They were the first team in decades to average more than 200 yards a game rushing, setting the all-time team rushing record in teh process. It isn't just Lamar. The OL is great at run blocking, and both Ingram and Edwards averaged 5+ ypc. But the real story is while they are that good at rushing, they also ended the season ranked #1 in passing DVOA. It isn't a fluke either, Lamar Jackson had a tremendous TD rate, a low turnover rate, and a great y/a. It isn't high volume, to be sure, but it is dynamic, whether it be to Hollywood Brown or Mark Andrews or others. They ranked #1 in yards and points per drive, and in the Top-10 in turnover rate, and #1 in lowest punt rate. It is unconventional to other amazing offenses of recent times, but make no mistake, the 2019 Ravens were a truly great offense. Rank: 1st

Defense: Since the Marcus Peters trade, the Ravens were the 2nd or 3rd best defense in the league. By Football Outsiders 'weighted' DVOA that weighs more heavily the 2nd half of the season, they ranked #2 (#1 was Pittsburgh, New England was #4). They are #4 against the pass, and while they were #10 in yards per drive allowed, they were #2 in teh red zone, and #5 in turnover rate. It is done unconvetionally, as they had by far the highest blitz rate in the league, both out of necessity to cover for a relatively weak pass rush, and out of luxury as they can blitz in front of a deep, talented secondary. Marcus Peters was the missing link, unlocking a great unit out of one that was always there. Rank: 2nd

Interesting Note: The Ravens are the first team to enter the playoffs on a 10-game win streak since the 2015 Chiefs (who started 1-5). That team lost its divisional round game.

Playoff Doppelganger: 1999 Rams. Obviously, there is one key difference in taht the 1999 Rams were most notably a passing team, and this is a rushing team, but in one sense, the 1999 Rams run-game was underrated (Faulk was the best RB in teh league) and the 2019 Ravens passing game is underrated. The 1999 Rams also had a quietly great defense. Their point differentials also somewhat mirror each other - the '99 Rams being 526-242 (+284) and these Ravens at 531-282 (+249).