The AFC Off-Season Checklist: 16 Steps to Success for the AFC South and West

AFC South

Houston

1.) Find secondary receiving options:

DeAndre 'Nuke' Hopkins is incredible. He has to be, though, because the rest of the receiving options are really average, if not worse. Cecil Shorts is ostensibly the #2. Nate Washington, who is somehow still in the league, is the #3. They have no real TE. The Texans somehow managed to score 300+ points despite all of this, but God forbid Nuke Hopkins gets hurt - which it isn't that hard to imagine given that they throw to him 200 times. They need to focus on this area in the draft, and maybe look at some of the FA Tight Ends.

2.) Kick the tires with Peyton Manning:

Yes, I'm serious. They're drafting late enough they probably aren't going to find a savior who can contribute in Year 1. Brian Hoyer is terrible. Manning may be as well, but there are at least some reasons why he may be decent in Houston. First he gets to be indoors in a dome. Then he gets another team with a good defense and decent running game. Finally, he gets all the Manning Classic games, a home-and-home with the Colts and trips to Foxboro and Denver.


Indianapolis

1.) Figure out the base offense:

One of my biggest gripes with the Pep Hamilton offense was he wanted to do everything, and by that I mean he wanted to go five wide on one play and power on the next. The Colts offense rarely had any flow, and they weren't great at any one thing other than Andrew Luck at his best in 2014. They have so many offensive players that Pep couldn't service them all enough, so he decided to not serve any of them enough. The amount of 3-TEs they used to play was staggering. With Andre Johnson basically gone, I want them to play one game where they go 3-1-1 all day. Just focus on your actualy best guys: Hilton, Moncrief and the guy you picked #1 last year in Dorsett.

2.) Draft a pass rusher, any pass rusher:

Given that apart from Robert Mathis's miracle 2013 season, the Colts have not been able to feature a pass rush at any point in the Pagano era. Given that, it is actually pretty incredible they've been able to be as mediocre on defense as they have. That is a credit to Pagano the coach, but scheme on defense only works to a point - witness the litany of top QBs to blitz the Colts. They need to draft a pass rusher; and not a weird project one who could potentially be the next Paul Kruger, but an actual pass rusher.


Jacksonville

1.) Fill out the offense to make it more balanced:

If you look just at the normal stats, it seems like Blake Bortles had a good season - I mean he had 33 TDs! Stats can be deceiving. The 35 passing TDs was countered with single-digit rushing TDs. It is nice Bortles showed great ability in the red zone, but that is not consistent. They need a more o-lineman and another running back to complement the inconsistent, erratic backs they have now. Don't believe the 35 TDs, Bortles still needs support and has a long way to go.

2.) Assume Dante Fowler Jr., is not the solution, make sure there's a Plan B:

The biggest issue facing the Jaguars is a lack of pass rush - that's really one of the issues facing this entire division aside from Houston. Dante Fowler Jr. can be a nice dose of youth and skill and talent into helping solve that problem. The #3 pick from last year should be fully healed from his ACL tear last year. That said, we can't completely assume he's going to be fully ready to contribute. Pass rush is a need even if Fowler is great. The Jaguars have no larger need on defense than pass rush, with or without Fowler coming back 100%.


Tennessee

1.) Don't try to do too much too quickly

The future of the Titans basicaly rests in Marcus Mariota becoming the player all thought he could. That said, let him develop naturally. There will be a lot of pressure to give him a great line or a running game, or have him become a 'pocket' passer. Just let the guy become the player he had the potential to be. I actually want to restress the running game part. Mike Mularkey has already expressed that he wants to build a smash-mouth team. Don't fall for that Mike. It really isn't needed in the modern NFL Let Mariota play, don't handcuff or restrict him, or true to over-do it with expensive FA personnel.

2.) Spend wisely on defense, short length, high value

The Titans have a ton of cap room. They will be able to shop at the luxury department, but they should take heed from what the Colts were and were not able to do with that same luxury recently. The Colts in the past four years have signed dozens of Free Agents, including some high salary players. Some have worked. Most haven't. That is not surprising given the general value from Free Agency. However, what the Colts did smartly was sign to shorter length deals. They were able to get out of them for most right at the time when they need to start spending internally. Free Agency is a team building method is not smart. Making sure you can get out of the misses, though, is incredibly smart.

AFC West

Denver

1.) Don't overpay Osweiler:

Now, what that really means in practice is don't pay him to be something he hasn't shown himself to be. They shouldn't easily let him go; certainly Osweiler showed flashes in his 7 games. He also showed some negatives, like inaccuracy and a penchant to hold the ball too long and take too many sacks. He may command premium starter money, and he probably should given his leverage; but the Broncos have built a type of team that cannot afford a QB paid more than his value much longer. It is one of the riskiest moves to move away from a starting QB, but it is also a risk to overpay one.

2.) Don't be afraid to move on from Ryan Clady:

I'm pretty sure that the Broncos are planning to do this, but it can be easy for the Broncos to buy into this line of thinking: 1 - we have a bad o-line; 2 - we have an all-pro coming back to play LT; 3 - problem solved. Ryan Clady has now missed essentially all of the 2013 and 2015 seasons. The player he was in 2014 was fine, but it was nowhere near the all-pro he was in 2009-2012. Ryan Clady can be cut rather easily and the Broncos can save a lot of money by doing so. They have to fix the o-line, but a 30-year old past star coming off two major injuries is not necessarily the answer.


Kansas City

1.) Figure out which of your defensive free agents is going to age well:

Basically, the whole entire defense of the Chiefs other than Justin Houston. This is not an exaggeration. Eric Berry, Sean Smith, Drrick Johnson, Tamba Hali, Mike DeVito and Husain Abdulla are all free agents. With that many contracts coming off of the books they are going to have enough money to sign some of them, but these are all players between 27-32, generally any long-term deal at this stage is a huge risk. They really have to do a good job of deciding which of these players has enough left to warrant a deal.

2.) Try to turn the running back surplus into fixing the receivers

Jeremy Maclin turned out to be a really nice signing, finally giving the Chiefs a real #1 receiver. Of course, the Chiefs have no #2 receiver apart from some middling prospects. The Chiefs do have a spate of running backs, from the great but injured (Jamaal Charles), to the old star backup (Knile Davis), to the new guys (Charcandrik West & Spencer Ware). No team needs four viable running backs. Trades aren't really a thing, but the Chiefs could maybe try to turn two of those guys into a reasonable #2 or #3 receiver.


Oakland

1.) Don't go crazy in Free Agency; the answers are not all there and are not needed by 2016

The Raiders have geniune hope for the first time in a while. And not in the odd hope they had coming into 2011 after a freak 8-8 season in 2010. This is real hope. Derek Carr had a great season. By most statistical measures, he was a Top-10, borderline Top-5 performer in 2015. Amari Cooper is a future star. They have loads of talent and a decent o-line. The defense needs talent. The Raiders have a ton of money. But what they shouldn't do is go all-in on free agency to drive talent for 2016-17. Just build the way they have. Given Reggie McKenzie's past in Green Bay, it seems reasonable the Raiders will continue with this short-length Free Agency mindset, which is what they should do.

2.) Go heavy on defense in the draft:

This goes hand-in-hand with the 1st step, but this draft should be 80% defense. The Raiders have their QB, they have a #1 WR, they have a decent set of alternate weapons and running backs (including a very nice bounceback season from Crabtree), and the o-line is strong. The defense, after retirements, is basically Khalil Mack (the next Von Miller) and 10 other guys. They need to start pumping that area of the team with as many bodies as possible that are young. Defense, defense, defense. The Raiders need to do what the Broncos did in the draft in the Manning era.


San Diego

1.) Look again into trading Philip Rivers

The Chargers will be moving to Los Angeles (more to come on that). This is not happening this year, it may not happen next year. By the time it happens, Rivers will be at least 36. He's already regressed to the point that he can't drag the sorry team to anything past 9-7. Rivers deserves better, but for the Chargers, they should set the reset button now. I understand the push to be competitive the first year in Los Angeles, but instead of miring their way to 6-10 with Rivers, they can go a more exciting 6-10 with a young rookie QB.

2.) Just move to LA already

Like seriously, just rip the band-aid off completely.

The AFC Off-Season Checklist: 16 Steps to Success for the AFC East and North

AFC East

New England

1.) Actually invest in the o-line: 

The Patriots lost the AFC Championship because they were not at home. They also lost because their o-line got beat at every single position. They also lost home field advantage because the o-line got beat down the stretch. I hated when people threw out the 827 combinations the Patriots used, because even when everyone was healthy the Patriots kept rotating lineman for no reason, but still there is a big need here. They already brought back Dante Scarnecchia as coach, but they need to actually draft lineman high for once. Since getting Vollmer (2nd) in 2009 and Solder (1st) in 2011, they have mostly avoided lineman high, but with few other needs this is a big one.

2.) Try to find an all-in-one back

Basically since Danny Woodhead left, the Patriots have had very stylized roles for their running backs. They''ve basically split touches to the 'receiving' back (Vereen, White, Lewis) and the 'running' back (Ridley, Blount, Bolden), rarely crossing over - which leads to a lot of predictability from that offense. Obviously not enough to make them a bad offense, but it would nice to actually have and develop a 3-down back. Maybe Dion Lewis is that guy, but then they should run with him more.


New York

1.) Figure out of Muhammad Wilkerson is worth the opportunity cost:

Muhammad Wilkerson is very, very good. So are the other three top d-lineman the Jets have (Damon Harrison - also a free agent, Sheldon Richardson and Leonard Williams). All four were on rookie contracts. Now the first two decisions are up. It is easy to say they should break the bank to keep Wilkerson, but the same could be said of Richardson and potentially Williams. The Jets have other needs, and one of them is still probably QB. One of the biggest risk of building a team like the Jets is having so many expensive players outside of QB makes it hard to pay the QB when you need to. Understand what you may have in Leonard Williams and don't be afraid to let Wilkerson walk. Maybe lock up Richardson now as result at under-value.

2.) Discuss the succession plan for Ryan Fitzpatrick:

Obviously, Fitzpatrick has a ceiling. That said, it is a higher ceiling than Peyton Manning v. 2015 - and that guy won a Super Bowl on the back of a great defense. The Jets also potentially can have a great defense. That said, the team is teeming with young talent and need a young QB to keep this ride going beyond 2017 or so when Fitzpatrick will start to really regress. It may not need to be immediate, but for a team with limited needs, why not take a QB if one falls to #20?


Buffalo

1.) Get the players that Rex Ryan wants, or get the coaches the players need:

The Bills were by advanced stats a Top-5 defense with Gregg Williams as coordinator in 2013, the team got 57 sacks and the big-4 guys (both Williams, Jerry Hughes, Marcel Dareus) combined for 41. In 2014, by both regular and advanced stats, they were at Top-5 defense, now with Jim Schwartz (and his 4-3) as coordinator. The Bills still got 54 sacks and got 40 sacks from those 4 guys. In 2015, they got Rex Ryan, a noted defensive genius, and the Bills became a mediocre defense, compiling 21 sacks, with just 13 from those 4. The Bills defense fall was glaring. It is clear the personnel are not matching Rex. Now, given you just hired Rex Ryan, go all in to get his guys on defense. Rex has shown he can build a great defense with his players, and they're not necessarily great or super-expensive.

2.) Get an actual possession receiver:

Sammy Watkins is an exciting young player and has shown a good rapport with Tyrod Taylor. He had 60 receptions last year. No other reciever had more than 50. Robert Woods, a slot-type was 2nd. They don't have a true secondary outside receiver, a concern for a team with a still-growing QB. This is a place where they can be active in FA. The FA group at WR isn't the best (Jeffery shouldn't be a target here), but guys like Marvin Jones, Rishard Matthews, or even Anquan Boldin (despite his age) would be a valuable play here.


Miami

1.) Start planning for life after Tannehill if needed:

There's no need to cut bait now on Ryan yet. Let him play with Adam Gase, a man who did really nice work last year with Jay Cutler despite injuries at WR. Let Gase try to QB-whisper Tannehill's career back to life. That said, there's a chance it doesn't work. There's a chance Tannehill continues his regression or just has peaked as a #10-#15 type QB. If so, start thinking about moving on, now. Don't wait too long to cut bait. Let 2016 be the try-out for Tannehill under Gase, and if it doesn't work, let Gase pick his guy and build for the post-Tom Brady world.

2.) Invest in the o-line, and actually do it:

The Dolphins o-line hasn't been good since about 2008. They still haven't recovered from losing Jake Long, and while Mike Pouncey has worked out, guys like Jajuan James have definitely not. The Dolphins need to improve this area, even if to give Tannehill a better chance. Gase's offense generally mitigates o-line issues in the passing game, but their once really good run game has really fell off in 2015 as well. They don't have drastic needs anywhere, so I wouldn't surprised if they used a lot of ealry draft capital on the o-line position.

AFC North

Cincinnati

1.) Grow the next wave of the Bengals defense:

The Bengals took a page from the Steelers book, drafting for future need on defense, where they draft guys 2-3 years before they are needed. They've done this mostly at CB, where Dre Kirkpatrick and now Darqueze Dennard inherit spots 3 years after they've drafted. They have to get the next wave now, specifically up-front, where they have surrounded the star of Geno Atkins, with a lot of spare parts. The Bengals defense is solid, but an injection of youth and starting the new cycle on the d-line is definitely needed, especially at the pass rush, where they depend of a lot of talent between 26-29 - fast-forward 2-3 years and those guys will go and the new draftees will have to step in,

2.) Keep pushing on offense

The Bengals were a freak-loss to the Texans and a freak-injury to Andy Dalton from likely making the Super Bowl. They are still a very good team, and a very talented team. However on offense they stand to get a little less talented on offense with both Andre Smith and Marvin Jones as free agents. They've drafted for future need at o-line, but the WR depth will become an issue if Marvin Jones walks. Obviously they can re-sign him, but in FA there are a lot of Marvin Jones types. The Bengals have cap-space too, so they can aim even higher. Andy Dalton is a good-to-very-good QB who had great QB production in 2015 because he was surrounded by great talent. The Bengals need that equation to remain the same on offense.


Pittsburgh

1.) Don't believe in the defensive resurgence and still work on that side of the ball:

The Steelers defense ended the season probably between the 10th and 15th best unit. Of course, they played an easy schedule and then slowed a limited Broncos team in the playoffs (after slowing a more limited McCarron-led Bengals team) so it would be prudent of the Steelers to not believe that side is fixed. They've needed corner-back help for years, and while the Steelers MO has been basically to sign ex-Steelers or bargain-bin FAs, it is time to actually draft a corner for once. In a passing league, even in a defense that limits the risk exposure of that position, they need better corner play. They also need better pass rush from the second level to complement an effective d-line.

2.) Change up the training method:

Obviously, the impact of injuries is driven primarily by luck, and/or playing Vontaze Burfict. We can't predict them, but with the Steelers it is becoming a trend. There are teams that have more injuries than others. The Colts and Giants are probably the two biggest examples - and at some point maybe training practices are a reason. Ben Roethlisberger plays recklessly, but the constant churn of o-lineman getting hurt? Injuries are probably 80%-90% luck, but that still leaves 10%-20% skill or better training.


Baltimore

1.) Find players who can replicate the top-end talents of their departed stars

The Ravens have had been able to consistently draft well basically from 2003-2013. Some of that magic touch has dried up a bit. The Ravens won the Super Bowl with 4 best-in-the-league talents (Lewis, Reed, Suggs, Ngata). Now three are gone and Suggs is coming of a 2nd achilles tear. They have not been able to adequately replace their splash plays. They've replaced those guys with players that make the basic plays, but the splash is not there for a defense that essentially relied on that from 2010-2014.

2.) Define an offensive approach

The Ravens have a QB who raised his game in 2014-15, and he isn't going anywhere. The have a decent running game and, when healthy, a good o-line. What they don't have is a set of receivers that work together. Steve Smith is coming back, but he'll be off an ACL Then it is a bunch of fungible parts that don't combine into a good product. They need to define their offensive roles better.


Cleveland

1.) Trust in Hue

The Browns made a good coaching hire in Hue Jackson. They've made a lot of bad ones recently, but this has the chance to have good results. Jackson's tenure in Oakland wasn't too bad, and I don't want to hold against him forever the hasty trade for Carson Palmer. What Jackson has shown in Cincinnati is a willingness to push the envelope, to try out weird formations and favor a wide-open style that allowed a team with an average to good QB (mainly form 2012-2014) into a perennial Top-10 offense. Hue Jackson will need time to shape this roster. The Browns have not shown the willingness to be patient basically ever since they re-became a franchise, but they need that more than ever.


2.) Don't be afraid to let go of the Lineman

For years, the only positive the Cleveland Browns have had is their o-line. They were afwul overall, but that line had a future Hall of Famer in Joe Thomas, a 1st-round quality starter at Center in Alex Mack, and a few other good players - the most recent being Mitchell Schwartz. Both Mack and Schwartz are free agents. If I was the Browns, I would not be afraid to let those two players go. Yes, it makes you worse, but with the black hole still at QB, and anyway needing time to build up to the players Hue Jackson needs, a full rebuild is the best path forward. The full rebuild does not need two high-priced lineman.

18 Thoughts About Super Bowl 50

In honor of Peyton, here are 18 thoughts on Super Bowl 50, on the good (Denver's defense), the bad (the reaction to Cam Newton), and the ugly (the halftime), and everything else.

18.) The Panthers defense is really good, let's never forget it. That was the dominant performance ever to give up 24 points in a game. They held the Broncos to 194 yards. The two Broncos TDs were a defensive score, and another where a turnover set-them up at the 4-yard line. The Panthers sacked Manning 5 times in 28 drop-backs, and pressured him numerous other times. They played well in coverage, Josh Norman again erasing whoever he covered. Kony Ealy was a revelation. The Panthers defense came to play - sad for them no one else on the team did.

17.) CJ Anderson did not have a great game, he had quite a few runs for negative or no yardage, but in nearly all of those, it was due to bad blocking and Anderson being met in the backfield. Anderson did have a few really nice runs. He had a 22-yarder where he broke three tackles, including one from Kuechly. He had a few runs that ended up getting 5-8 yards where a normal running back, or the far inferior Ronnie Hillman, would have gotten just two yards. CJ Anderson needed to have a decent game for the Broncos to get any points on offense, and he did.

16.) I think the NFL panicked after the initial reaction to the announcement of Coldplay as the Halftime Show, which was extremely negative. It was an odd choice for a league that was trumping the ever-living-dog-poop out of this being the 50th Super Bowl. They reacted by attaching Beyonce and Bruno Mars to the affair, adding some strange R&B influences to a soft-rock back, and it really didn't work. They then tried to shoe-horn some reflection on the 50 years of Super Bowl halftime being shown on top of some random Coldplay song. What a real disaster, ending what had been a really good run of Super Bowl halftime shows.

15.) Really happy for a lot of Broncos who got their first ring, from Demarcus Ware, who is pretty clearly a Hall of Famer, to Aqib Talib, who in the end would have been a goat after a great season, to Evan Mathis, who was one of the people screwed out of a job by Chip Kelly, to Owen Daniels, who toiled for years with Kubiak in Houston as one of the more effective TEs, to even coach Kubiak, who was done wrong in Houston and came to Denver with high expectations, given a weird deal with teh QB situation and played it out really well. There are a few guys getting their second ring, but the ones getting their first are always more important.

14.) As for Le Affair Newton, I'm not sure really how to react. Obviously, it didn't look good the way he was on the podium. His curt answers and ugly walk-off will not do him any favors and provide fuel for all the people who want to get him. Still what do we want from Cam Newton? He came into the league with random scouts saying he was fake and not geniune. In his pleasure he takes from winning and now the desolation he takes from losing, that is a real person. Some people are bad losers. Is it a bad trait? Sure, but it is better for him to be real and pout than putting on a fake smile. I don't think it is necessarily a racist reaction, but some QBs would be praised for being so angry as to be rude after a loss.

13.) As for Le Game Newton, obviously Cam Newton picked a bad time to have his worst game. He was facing a defense that made Tom Brady look like a child for most of 60 minutes. He faced that defense that decided to play as well in the Super Bowl. He had receivers drop passes, his RBs do nothing and fumble. Let's not overreact to one game. He didn't play bad because the moment got too big, or because he didn't care (the idea he didn't care enough to not jump on the fumble is ludicrous), he just played bad. That is it.

12.) Let's give a shout-out to Brock Osweiler who inherited a team that was 7-2 and had a great defense, and he had to replace a legend. Osweiler wasn't always great. He did not play too well in wins against San Diego or the loss to Pittsburgh, but the two biggest wins of the regular season were the Broncos OT wins against New England and Cincinnati. All three teams finished 12-4, the Broncos got the #1 seed because they won those two games, both in OT, both with Osweiler playing reasonably well. He took the benching for Manning in stride. He never complained though the beginning of the Chargers game wasn't really his fault. He may inherit the Broncos next year, he may go somewhere else, but he played a huge part in the Broncos winning the Super Bowl.

11.) The commercials were not all that bad. There were some weird trends, like what the hell was with the amount of ads on diseases, especially with animated colons? But there were some nice ads too, like the Apartments.com, or the ad about Marmots. It has become an annual tradition to slam the ads in the Super Bowl, which is not surprising in this 'we hate everything' social media world. But let's give the advertisers credit. They tried; they are trying. There is more creativity now than their used to be 5-6 years ago. Odd to not see any Clysdales, though.

10.) Ron Rivera is a great coach. I loved what he said after the game, expressing the positive end of losing, the opportunity, comparing his team to where Denver was two years ago. He had an off game, giving up his last challenge for the gain of just seven yards, having the team slightly mis-manage the end of the first half, and then punt on 4th and 24 from the 2 yard line (statistically, that was actually the right decision). Ron Rivera and that team are still the future. I stand by everything I wrote about the Panthers. The organization is strong; the team will get stronger. They will be back.

9.) The NFL loves to pull out all the stops for these big events. They turned Super Bowl XL into a huge anniversary, despite 40 not being a huge deal. 50 is a huge deal, and the NFL treated it as such. It may have been a little much during the season, like painting all the '50' yard markers gold, but in the Super Bowl, it was worth it. To see the entire set of living Super Bowl MVPs on the field at once was amazing. I'll give Tom Brady for showing up. Only two players did not, both I'm assuming due to health reasons, and Brady would have been the only holdout. That would not have been a good look.

8.) The loss did expose that the Panthers are still a flawed team. Their weapons are still not great and if you can take out Greg Olsen, their receivers can have trouble getting separation and they often drop passes. The o-line can be had, forcing the Panthers to go max-protect more than they should. The defensive secondary is a little thin, especially following injuries. But where they made their mark, and where they will continue, is the development of players. Philly Brown had a nice game before his concussion. Kony Ealy was a monster, the only person close to Von Miler. Luke Kuechly had a relatively quiet game with eight tackles and a sack. Josh Norman is still a superstar. Get Kelvin Benjamin back, get another lineman, maybe add another weapon, and this team can start to get really scary. And for a team that went 17-2, and rolled through the NFC playoffs, that is a frightening proposition for the rest of the NFC.

 
7.) I've heard a lot of people say how boring this game was, that it was an awful Super Bowl. For those people, they are either Patriots fans who didn't want to see Peyton win a ring, or these are people who better not say they 'like defensive football' or complain about all the 4,000 yard passers. Guess what, guys? That was a great game. That was two defenses playing defense about as good as defense can be played. The Broncos played a dynamic offense and fought them with dynamism - tough coverage, blitzing, dominant rush. The Panthers did the same, with all their normal trappings like Kuechly blitzing, Norman blanketing and Ealy and the front dominating. The game was a 1-score affair for most of it. That was a great game. That was about as good a defensive game as we can get in the modern NFL.


And now, for the last 6, here's my thoughts on the Broncos Defense, and Peyton Manning

6.) More to come on Von Miller, but that defense from top to bottom played well. Aqib Talib had a few issues, but did make a few nice plays in coverage. Second-year pro Bradley Roby was awesome, breaking up three passes on 3rd down.The safeties were great, including Darian Stewart flying all over the field. Both Danny Trevethan and Brandon Marshall were good enough in coerage, spying and limiting the run game. And of course, that front. 13 more hits, 30 more hurries, seven more sacks. Derek Wolfe was relatively quiet, but Malik Jackson was a force with numerous run stops and the fumble recovery, and Demarcus Ware, after slowing down noticeably late last season, came to play in these playoffs. The Broncos defense did to Carolina what Seattle did to them two years ago, a sweet turnaround.

5.) So where does that defense stand-up? By points allowed, they weren't historically great for teh regular season (296 points allowed), but that number is inflated by both defensive scores allowed, a lot of turnovers, and facing the most drives in the league. THey led the league in yards per attempt alowed and yards per carry allowed, a very rare combination. They were awesome all year long, backing up one of the league's worst offenses. And they had a truly dominant playoff run, beating three of the league's best offenses, holding the Steelers, Patriots and Panthers to a combined 44 points, getting better each week. They allowed Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and Cam Newton just one TD pass, combined, and sacked the lot of them 12 times. I think they are still a tad below the 2002 Buccaneers (more dominant regular season, and arguably more dominant playoffs), and 2000 Ravens (more dominant playoffs, probably most dominant of the last 20 years), but they are right there with the 2013 Seahawks that throttled Denver.

4.) Peyton Point #1: I think he's done. I fully expect him to announce his retirement in the next month or so. I fully expected him to come back when he was injured and then benched. He has an ego; not a huge one, but a distinct one. I thought he would come back and play a team that played Denver. But then, it all came correct. I do think he was at peace. There was a noticeable difference between Peyton this Super Bowl week than the last two times. He was ready to go. Then again, his lack of emotion after showing so much during the celebration gave me pause. I am of two minds. On the one hand, physically he is not there and this is teh perfect way to go. On the other, I don't want to be accept the NFL without Peyton Manning just yet.

3.) The early-2000's had three iconic defensive coordinators. Dick LeBeau, Jim Johnson and Monte Kiffin were long-time coordinators (LeBeau was the only one who tried his hand at head coach and failed miserably) and were great year in and year out. Well, it is coming close to the time where we add Wade Phillips to that list. At every stop he's been his defense has improved tremendously from his the year prior. He did great work in Houston, they were a Top-5 defense in his first season in 2011, and the Texans nearly made the AFC Championship Game with TJ Yates and QB. Wade Phillips had equally good defenses in Buffalo and was actually a better head coach than people remember. That all said, these last two games was his magnum opus. Yes, he got some great tools to play with, some amazing colors to put on the pallet, but with a beautiful creation he made. That defense never blitzed Brady and dominated, then blitzed 50% of the time against Carolina and dominated even more. He played three of the four best offenses in the NFL in back-to-back-to-back weeks and shut down them all. For a man who couldn't get an interview before the 2014 season, he may have been the biggest addition of all in the offseason.

2.) Let's talk about Von Miller. He was drafted at #2, people at that point said he could be the next Demarcus Ware. Five seasons into that career, he's right there in matching that promise. He may not have reached the level he was in 2012, when he had 18 sacks and numerous more hurries and pressure, but Miller in these last two games earned that draft position. What 2012 told us was that when Miller was on, he was absolutely dominant. After having a bad habit of going quiet in Broncos' playoff losses (he didn't have a sack against Baltimore in 2012 or Indy in 2014), Miller was amazing the last two games. 5 sacks, 7 QB hits, 2 forced fumbles and an interception. That was arguably the best back-to-back performances by a defense in NFL playoff history given who they played - and to do it, they had their best player play like the best player.

1.) Peyton Point #2 - yesterday's game does nothing for his legacy. For the people like me who already thought Manning was the GOAT QB, and thought people put way too much stock in playoff games when judging a QBs legacy, yesterday does nothing. For those that already don't like Peyton, they probably will just decide now that you have to play well in a win for the win to count. But all that said, I'm just happy he got that second ring. No one deserved another ring more. No one deserved the feeling to hold that trophy again more than Peyton. For years he came close, carrying flawed teams' whose defense (Rahim Moore) or Special Teams (Hank Baskett's onside kick, the Jets kick-off return in 2010) failed him. For once, tehy didn't. For once they dominated. There is great poetry in Peyton, in a year where he played like a sad imitation of the great man he used to be, finally getting teh support needed to win that second ring. I'll have more on Peyton the next week or two, and more after his inevitable retirement, but for one day, Peyton finally got what I wanted for him for so long.

The Carolina Panthers: Examining Building a Monster with a Microscope

There's really so many ways I can start this piece off on. I want to talk the Carolina Panthers, and their incredible journey to this point that started five years ago when they drafted Cam Newton and hired Ron Rivera. It was five years before they hit their peak, now at 17-1 and on the doorstep of history. The Panthers have been many things over those five years. At first they were an offensive force well before their time. Then they became a defensive force good enough to go 12-4. Then they became a punchline, the second team to make the playoffs with a losing record. Now they are a juggernaut, trying to be the fourth team to go 18-1, and the third of which that was happy to do it. But in reality all of those teams are the Panthers, a franchise that has turned into the most model organization in sports and an example of what mistakes to make, and what mistakes not to make on the way.

The Coach

Ron Rivera was in a Super Bowl way back when. He played in one too. He also coached the Bears defense in Super Bowl XLI. That one didn't go too well, neither did that offseason. Rivera interviewed for a few jobs, word seemingly got back to the Bears that Rivera planned to take a few coaches with him if he went to another gig, and the Bears didn't like it. Rivera found himself standing up at the end of coaching musical chairs and found a temp gig coaching linebackers in San Diego. Ted Cotrell was the coordinator, and got himself fired midway through the 2008 season and Rivera got himself another coordinator gig. That weird resconce in San Diego may have been painful for Rivera, but it may have turned him into the coach he is now.

In Chicago, Ron Rivera coordinated a Tampa-2 defense under Lovie Smith. The Bears blitzed more than most Tampa-2 outfits, but they were very much a Tampa-2 defense. With San Diego, Rivera had to change up. He inherited a 3-4 team (one famously coordinated by the mind he'll match defensive wits with - Wade Phillips) and kept them in a 3-4, and opened up his aggresiveness to a new level. Rivera is one of the few coordinators to run both a 4-3 and 3-4, and both to good success. He took a little bit from both to create one of more dynamic defenses in the NFL.

Rivera is being lauded for many things right now. For his ability to lead a team, to inspire confidence in his players, to galvanize a group of men to achieve more than they should be able. But Rivera should also be equally lauded for the more basic part of a coaches job in the NFL: coaching. He's scheme agnostic, fitting his scheme, his defense, to his personnel. Rivera brought that flexibility and variablity to Carolina, creating a defense that is as well coached as any team in the NFL.

 
The QB

Ron Rivera got the job in February, 2011, it was an unsurprising hire - Rivera was a coach in waiting for many years. His team went 2-14 the year before, and had the #1 pick. The choich made that April in the draft was far less obvious. It is humorous to remember now what the pre-draft talk was about nearly five years ago. Cam Newton had just won the Heisman Trophy and National Championship, but he had a came out of nowhere story that led, understandably, to question marks. Those questions were answered with even more, as people realized that he came out of nowhere because of a few missteps a few years earlier. Cam Newton is a black QB, that much is obvious. He also had the bad luck to come along four years after another black QB, Jamarcus Russell was taken #1 overall. By 2011, Russell was out of the league, a punching bag and pitiable bust. 

Cam Newton was no Jamarcus Russell, and he is no Blaine Gabbert, Jake Locker or Christian Ponder, the other three QBs picked in the Top-12. Cam Newton was seen as arrogant, he was seen as aloof. He was seen as having an 'insincere' smile, but no one seemed to really care at the time that what he was was a football player, and more than that, a QB and a leader. Cam Newton has been called many things in his career, but he's never been called not a hard worker, or not dedicated.

Cam Newton started his career throwing for 400 yards. He followed that up by throwing for another 350. He broke all the rookie records in 2011. He never reached those heights again in his next three and a half years. Personnel changes were the primary reason, losing his best o-lineman, best receivers, top running back, It took him till October 2015 to become the player he was in Week 1 in 2011, but in reality he was that guy all along.

The GM

Marty Hurney drafted Cam Newton. He also drafted Luke Kuechly, Not many GMs have drafted two guys that good in back to back years. Then again, not many QBs spent capital, both in the draft and in actual money, like Marty Hurney either. The same guy who drafted Kuechly and Cam (and Josh Norman), is the same guy who gave huge extensions to both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, and gave out silly money to Everette Brown and Charles Johnson, and traded two first round picks in future years for second round picks in current years - that turned into Jeff Otah and the aforementioned Everette Brown. Marty Hurney started the rebuild. He was the decision maker for the two biggest parts of the rebuild, hiring Ron Rivera and drafting Cam Newton. He also got replaced.

Dave Gettleman became the GM in 2013. He inherited a cap hell. The Panthers are just crawling out of it. For the first time in his reign, they'll be able to actually spend money on real free agents. Then again, given the success he's had shopping in the bargain bin, he may want to avoid Bloomingdale's this March.

In Gettleman's first year, the Panthers went 12-4, they had a great defense, the second best in the league behind a historicaly good Seattle unit. They had a decent offense. That offseason, the team lost their top three receivers (Smith, Lafell, Ginn), top two lineman (Gross, Vincent), and three quarters of their secondary (Mike Mitchell, Drayton Florence, Captain Munnerlyn). They replaced them by going even cheaper and older, bringing in scrap-heap guys. They won the division again. In the next offseason, they lost even more guys, lost more from their secondary, lost another receiver in training camp. And they went 15-1.

The GM & The Coach

The Panthers started the 2013 season 1-3. They first started 0-2, losing the second game to the Bills in Buffalo after passing up a 4th and 1 that could have won the game to kick a field goal to go up 6. They gave up a TD as time expired. After a win, they lost the next game 22-6 to Arizona to drop to 1-3. In 2011, the Panthers went 6-10, which was good considering they were 2-14 the year before. They went 7-9 in 2012 with more a defensive focus, including a 3-1 finish. But now they were 1-3. Ron Rivera was 14-22 as a head coach. He also wasn't Dave Gettleman's head coach. GMs are notorious for clearing house. Three years later, not only did Gettleman not clean house, he didn't fire one person. He definitely didn;t fire Ron Rivera, and they've gone 33-10-1 since.

Dave Gettleman did the opposite of all GMs, he didn't go out and get his guys. He analyzed what was already there in Carolina, looked at the coaching staff he had, including Rivera, Sean McDermott and Mike Shula, and decided to keep them all. Gettleman was close to 60 when he got the job. It would be hard to blame him if he saw the Panthers as his one chance to run a team and put in all of 'his guys', but Gettleman is a rare bird, the one that realizes that the 'right' guys are more important than 'his' guys.

The Coach learned as well. Ron Rivera was at 1-3 and not 2-2 because he passed up a 4th and 1 with the best short-yardage QB in the NFL. His team lost because of it. He promised the Carolina fans that day that his passiveness wouldn't cost them a game again, and it hasn't. One of the biggest complaints many fanbases have of their coaches is that the coach is too conservative: the coach punts too much, kicks too many field goals, does not throw to win games. It's a legitimate criticism many times, but it is as legitimate to point out that in-game clock management and game decisions are not as meaningful as what the coach does during the week: the game-planning, leadership, etc. Rivera was already good in the latter, but he decided that he didn't want to suffer on the former. He changed, he did the one thing so many coaches never do, admit that they were wrong.

Both Rivera and Gettleman made a forced marriage work. They say that arranged marriages have lower divorce rates than 'love' matches. There are obviously many external factors that influence those statistics, but it seems even in the coaching world there is evidence that adapting and learning to live with your forced partner may just work.

The QB and Linebacker

Cam Newton was the first brick of the foundation. Luke Kuechly was the second. The captain on offense and the captain on defense. Leadership comes in many forms, but in football, where defense and offense are fully separate parts of a whole, it helps to have a main leader on each side. As Cam Newton grew into a great player to match his great bravado and charisma, Luke Kuechly came pre-packaged.

Luke Kuechly was drafted as the 'most NFL-ready' linebacker. It says a lot about the NFL draft process that usually those guys don't end up being good, like Aaron Curry or Keith Rivers. Luke Kuechly, though, is the exception, brilliance since Week 1 of his rookie season. He had 160 tackles as a rookie, but more than that exhibited incredible instincts. He was fast in coverage, fast to blitz, and fast to roam side to side, joining a finally healthy Thomas Davis to create a foundation of what was to come.

In 2013, Luke Kuechly was the named the best defensive player in the NFL. In 2013, Cam Newton had his first breakout season that combined wining with good production, and started to shine on a national stage. The 2013 Panthers were a really good team. After the 1-3 start, they went 11-1 to close out the season, ripping the NFC South from the Saints. The Panthers grew up in a three game stretch near the end of that season. They had won 8 straight games, going from 1-3 to 9-3, and went to the Superdome to play the 9-3 saints on Sunday Night Football. The Saints were at home, where they were still at the point where that was an automatic win. The Panthers started with two quick field goals, and the Saints answered 31 straight points. The Saints humbled the Panthers. Two weeks later, Luke Kuechly and Cam Newton humbled them back and finished their ascendancy.

Two weeks later the Saints went to soggy Carolina, both at 10-4 (the Saints lost to the Rams the week in-between), and Caroline flexed their muscles in teh opposite way. They sacked Drew Brees 6 times. They harrassed him all day. The defense swallowed up the short passes that are normally so explosive in the dome. They picked off Brees twice, once was Thomas Davis and the other was Kuechly. Tackle statistics are always skeptical, but Kuechly is listed with 9 tackes and a ridiculous 15 more assisted. 

But still, the yin of Kuechly's defense needed the Yang of Newton. Despite the defensive brilliance the Panthers found themselves down by 3 with a minute to go. Cam Newton and the Panthers were 65 yards away. Then Cam did as he does: 37 yards to Ginn, 14 to Olsen and 14 more to Domenik Hixon. The Panthers took the lead at 17-13, took the division a year later, and haven't given it back since.

The Team

The Panthers know what they are about. They know how they were created, by an odd coaching hire, a controversial top pick at QB, a 'safe' choice for a defensive leader, and a bunch of spare parts that have rotated in and out because of cap issues. How they've turned that into what they've become is legendary. The 2013 Panthers were led by their defense. They were the second best unit in the league, a strong #2 behind a historically good Seahawks unit. They had 59 sacks. 26 of those were by their top two DEs, Greg Hardy (15) and Charles Johnson (11). Those two players combined for 1 sack for the 2015 Panthers. What's more amazing about the 59 sacks is that the other 33 that were not from Hardy and Johnson came from 14 players, 10 of whom had at least 2. They came from everyone. Tied for third in the team was Thomas Davis and Mike Mitchell, tied for fourth were Captain Munnerlyn and Quinten Mikell, two secondary players. They blitzed and blitzed and blitzed.

Two years later, despite losing Hardy, having an injured Johnson, and not only losing all three of those secondary players, the Panthers had 44 sacks and again the 2nd best defense (and again behind a historically good unit). They switched up, blitzed less, but are still as effective. These types of rapid changes in perssonel and scheme have been normal in Carolina. 

On the offensive end, they moved from a read-option based aerial attack with tons of designed runs in 2011. They were explosive, with a young Cam launching bombs to Steve Smith. Over time under Mike Shula they've molded into a strange brew of conventional deep passing game - much like the Arizona team that they dominated - and a complex rushing attack that is more varied and organized than any in the league. The Panthers have become a malleable mix of a few flashy talents and spare parts that have recycled in an out of the lineup for three or four years. The Panthers have a discernable style but are sprearheaded by the unique talents of their footholds, the dual-threat of Cam Newton who has turned himself into a dominant pocket-passer, and the range and instincts of Luke Kuechly.

The Future

While the Panthers can culminate a five year process today, the future is even brighter. With Cam, Luke and Coach Ron, they have the cornerstones. With Dave Gettleman, they have  GM with a steady hand, patient philosophy and a man who has turned into the best bargain hunter in the NFL. That is the nucleus, and the electrons flying around is a set of players with varying talent but incredible commitment to team, to scheme and to an organization that has turned into one of the NFL's best.

The Panthers have as bright a future as they do a present. Cam and Luke are young; they draft well uncovering gems in late rounds, none better than Josh Norman. They have schemes that can plug and play players. They have a coach who is on the forefront of being aggressive and inspires a tremendous amount of confidence from his players. For the first time in Dave Gettleman's era they even have money to spend. Something special is building in Carolina. We've been able to say that a lot recently, like with Green Bay in 2011, or San Francisco in 2013, or even Seattle in 2013. The Packers and Seahaws have lasted, but the Panthers are younger, they're hungrier, and they may just be better.

Re-Post: Dealing with the End of an Era

Update: February 4th, 2016

 

I wrote this the week after Peyton Manning went 4-20 with 4 INTs against the Chiefs. It was the worst game of his career. It was the Broncos second loss. He didn't play the next six games due to some combination of being hurt and being benched. At that point, there was a reasonable chance I would never see Peyton Manning play another game.

 

That said, I had hope. I had hope that Osweiler would falter, that they would drop a few games, that the offense would grow listless, and that Peyton would be waiting in the wings. It worked out about as perfectly as I could have hoped. Not only did Peyton Manning ride to the rescue in Week 17 against the Chargers - a game he, admittedly, mainly just handed off in, but because of some other combination of Belichick's arrogance and Patriots' injuries, the Broncos had those losses with Osweiler, had that listless offense, but somehow still got the #1 seed. 

 

I got to see Peyton Manning play two more playoff games, and not only play two more, but have his teams get wins over both the Steelers and Ben Roethlisberger, finally paying ol' Big Ben back for teh 2005 Divisional Game (yes, this is just the 2nd time they've met in the playoffs) and then see Manning get what will be a lasting lead in the head-to-head playoff matchups against Tom Brady and the Patriots. I got to see it all, and I got to see it from the perverse angle of rooting for the side that came into these battles with the staunch defense and not the high-powered offense.

 

Peyton has dropped many hints the past 10 days that this will be his last game. First was his comments to Brady and Belichick after the game, the 'this might be my last rodeo' line was not said for no reason. It probably will be. Manning also has seemed at peace during the run-up to the Super Bowl, a stark contrast to the serious, dour manner he showed in both the run-up to Super Bowl XLIV and XLVII, where he kept a serious face plastered on for 14 days.

 

This will likely be it. I can have some dreams of him going to Houston or LA and having one last run, but it will be just one last run, and one that will likely resemble Favre in 2010. 

 

Obviously, I am happy that Peyton Manning's last game wasn't a 4-20 performance with four picks, a game where he perversely set the record for career yards. But I also had to relive the emotions of the lead-up to his last game again. I had to live it. Last time it was over before I knew it. This time there was 14 days to worry about it.

 

I have so many ideas in my mind of what I can write about my connection to Peyton Manning's career once it is finished. This can basically become a Peyton Manning blog for half a year once he's gone. Hell I already started that in 2012 following his release from Indianapolis. But that's really the biggest sign of the lasting impression he's made in my life, that I can write and talk and reminisce about his career and more pointedly how I've viewed, lived and thought about it.

 

Peyton Manning's last game is coming up. There are many career retrospective's being written, but there really shouldn't be. The NFL has had greats retire before and will always have more and more. I  will always just appreciate that Peyton got this encore from Week 17 onwards to the Super Bowl. In historical terms, this is the biggest player to step away from the game since definitely Brett Favre, if not Jerry Rice. Both those players left in ignominy. Favre had a miserable second year in Minnesota, and saw his legendary iron-man streak end. Rice retired after suiting up in Seahawk blue. Manning at least got a great final performance. Then agin, as the below shows, we were really close to that final song never happening.

 

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Peyton Manning had his worst game of his career, then reportedly tore his plantar fasciia. He may sit, maybe for the rest of the season. That may be a better option actually than taking the field the way he did yesterday. The 'Peyton Manning' period of my life is basically over.

Rafael Nadal is #6 in the world, but he's also a guy who didn't reach a major semifinal, a guy who now has devolved into where getting tough 3-set wins and losing to top players is so normal people hail it as signs of progress. This from a guy who just last summer, after winning a 9th French Open, stood just three Slams behind Federer (and a full eight ahead of Novak, now just four). While he still is just #6, and is only a year older than Djokovic and Murray, it seems like his slam-winning part of his career, is also over.

These two players have probably been #1 and #2 in my book for a good ten years now. I’ve followed each of them closely, Manning since 2003, and Nadal since he burst onto the scene in 2005, winning the French Open just a week after turning 19. These players are basically losing rapidly to father time (somehow, Nadal’s future seems eminently, and relatively, brighter than Manning’s). This period, this era, of my sports fan’s life is over. It was great. I got so many incredible moments and memories, from the Colts 2006 Super Bowl run, or their 2009 season (up until the onside kick), to Nadal’s triumphs in Wimbledon in ’08, Australian Open in ’09, and his two wins over Djokovic in New York. It had it’s fair share of downs as well, from the numerous injuries that Nadal had to suffer, recover and play through, to Manning’s incredible lack of luck in the playoffs throughout his careers.

Both players are also notorious for who they are not. Manning is not Tom Brady, and while I will go to my deathbed truly believing Manning was the better QB, the tide has really turned for that being anything close to a majority opinion – something that basically was a 50/50 discussion just 12 months ago. For Nadal, he wasn’t Federer, but that argument was always more interesting, where he had Federer’s number head-to-head. Now, I have to worry more about Novak passing Nadal historically than Nadal trumping his main rival. Now that both career’s look to be squarely over, I have to not only accept their place, but do the harder, but ultimately more important – I need to move on.

I’ve written many times about my life as a football fan focusing on Manning, and as always with him joined at the hip in history will be Brady. Two years ago, right after AFC Championship Game, a game Manning played brilliantly in, a game Manning won, a game that seemed to tip the scales to the ‘Manning > Brady’ side more than it had ever been, I wrote that I long for the day when both Manning and Brady have retired, when there is no more to gain or lose, when each Sunday is not a referendum on Manning’s career and how it compares to Brady’s. Well, that day is coming very soon. I said back then I can’t wait for it… and I need to make good on that feeling.

But what can I really do. I’ve spent so much time, energy and man-hours in my life watching, debating, thinking and living these two players’ careers. I can’t move on too easily, partly because doing so in some ways invalidates all the time I spent (some would say ‘wasted’) on them. But also because I don’t want to let go that quickly. In recent years, I enjoyed the off-season of the NFL more, a time when I could dream Manning’s team would go 14-2 and roll to a Super Bowl. I’ve wanted nothing more to see that one player win another Super Bowl. Not even for me to enjoy, but for him. I have to accept that hoping for that is useless and it is time to move on.

I will be a sports fan long after Peyton Manning does ultimately retire, same with Rafael Nadal. It remains to be seen if I will follow either sport with the same passion – I likely will with football but I’m not as sure with Tennis. But one of the ‘come to Jesus’ moments of a sports fan is when that first cycle of players, and with it teams, debates, arguments and moments, dies. For almost as long as I have been a sports fan, these two players, and so many more, have been a part of it. The first challenge of my sports fandom is that next wave.

And to be honest, the next wave doesn’t look so bad. At my core I still have two NFL team’s that I pull for (with Manning in Denver, it was about him and him alone); the Raiders, who despite a recent two-game losing streak, have a bright future – and will likely take over from the Broncos as kings of the AFC West as early as next year, and the Colts, who still employ Andrew Luck. But I can also set my sights away from football. Back over to baseball, where my team is exiting a period of prolonged dormancy with a star of the future in Carlos Correa, a man who offers all the promise that Peyton Manning offered to Indianapolis.

It is hard to say these things and not seemed fair-weathered, that I’ll turn my back on the NFL the second Peyton Manning hangs it up, and move right over to the sport where my favorite team has a bright outlook; but it is more about where should I spend my time that I, some would say pathologically, have to devote to sports. Why waste it on the NFL when I can waste it on baseball, a sport I used to love as much before the Astros turned into the MLB equivalent of Blackberry in their organizational philosophy?

There are stars of the future playing today. It definitely changes the equation when those stars first become your age, and then progressively younger than you (Connor MacDavid was born in freaking 1997), and that change does make it harder to embrace. It brings into question darker areas like ‘what am I doing with my life when Player X has accomplished more at 22 than I ever will?’. It will take time for me to fully embrace this new era of favorite players and favorite teams and new sports memories that will last my 20’s and 30’s.

It then becomes a nice combination that the first time your favorite players leave the building for the last time, is about the age when you probably should do so, to some degree, as well. As Manning, and Nadal, and before them Oswalt and Brodeur, hang it up and move on to better things, I should as well. I’m at the age where my career and starting a family and all that stuff becomes more important – the unfamiliar faces littering the playing field is just another sign.

But it never will escape totally. There is no ‘off’ switch in being a sports fan. I just have to hope there is a way to transport the energy that was expended in rooting for Peyton Manning and Rafael Nadal, and the associated heartbreak and elation, lop some of it off to get to a more sane level, and move it all over the Carlos Correa and the Astros, and stars of the late 2010s and 2020s.

Coming to terms with the end of an era is always difficult, but for me it has recently brought up the questions of ‘was it worth it?’, and it is going to take more than it should for those answers to be ‘Yes’ for both Peyton Manning and Rafael Nadal. Undoubtedly, they’ve given me some of my greatest memories as a sports fan. They’ve also produced some of the worst. They’ve also produced me to expend hours of time debating their relative places in history with so many different people – most of whom were online and I’d never meet in real life. I enjoyed that to some degree, but the vapid nature of analyzing QBs, something that has, comically, become worse over time has made me and other Manning supporters expend more than was necessary.

In that sense, I look forward to a world of rooting for Derek Carr and Amari Cooper. For rooting for Khalil Mack. I’ll have to pick up a tennis player (or drop the sport), but there’s a future there as well. But it all leads back to the uncertainty. With Peyton Manning, through the heartbreaking postseason losses, came the hope of ‘there’s always next year.’ That 14-2 season where he rides off with his 2^nd ring was always just a few months away. That was a comforting, and sadly incorrect, thought, but comfort was needed at the worst times. That comfort is gone. What lies ahead, with Derek Carr, and Carlos Correa, is definitely exciting (even the Devils are somehow playing well in a year that they probably should be tanking in), but has a ways to go to be comforting.

Back in January, when Peyton looked lost in a playoff loss to the Colts, a game in which he played badly as he dealt with what we later learned were serious injuries to his thighs, there was rampant speculation that he would retire. I wanted him to come back. ‘He was hurt,’ was my line, dreaming that a healthy Peyton Manning, despite his age, would go back to the player he was at the start of 2014, when he was the best QB in the NFL through 9 weeks. I thought one last miracle 14-2 season and Super Bowl run; that a healthy, motivated Manning, coupled with a great defense, would do the trick. Now that he returned ever worse, and again injured, I realize it wasn’t hope but comfort. I wasn’t ready yet for an NFL without Peyton Manning. I don’t know if I will be in 2016 either. All I know is I really hope come September, 2016, when Peyton Manning is chilling at home in Louisiana, and there are 32 starting QBs, none of which are him, Carlos Correa should be hitting .320 for the first place Astros. I just hope that that is all it takes.

.... You are my only hope Carlos Correa

Three Thoughts on the NHL's Thriling, Triumphant Three-on-Three All Star Extravagaza

The NHL put on a show for their all star weekend. It wasn't without controversy, but there was so much to love in the display the NHL put on. Give them this, on the same weekend the NFL held their pro bowl, the NHL showed that taking a few risks can make the 'exhibition' competitive and a great watch for their fans. They experimented with a 3-on-3 format for the actual game in an effort to force players to care rather than loaf around during the 5-on-5 normal All Star Game, and man did it work. In honor of the three-on-three format, here's my three thoughts on how the NHL pulled this off.


1.) The NHL became the first sport in the modern era to make their players care about the All Star Game outcome.

The MLB used to have the claim for having an All Star Game that mattered, with there being a true rivalry between the AL and NL back in the day. Free Agency, interleague play, satellite TV and numerous other factors ended that. Well, the NHL figured out a way to make people care. First, they made this about divisions and not conferences. I actually think there is some inherent rivalry between the two divisions in each conference - specifically in the West where the Pacific Division all stars were probably told how stacked everyone found the Central. Second, they made it into a tournament. A normal game becomes bogged down in the length and the 'exhibition' element of a one-game situation, one where there is money for the winner and loser. Here, just by making it a four team tournament, there was a sense of bragging rights at stake. The players don't want to go home early. They don't want to be seen as losers when there's just so few of them. Finally, the three-on-three format is a hit. It allows there to be more ice for players to play with, and it forces the players to not loaf. Too often in a 5-on-5 plodding game players could just slow it down and mill around. In a three-on-three you can't really do that.

The NHL got a dream set of three games. The first three-on-three showcased many things that the three-on-three gave us: many, many odd man rushes and end-to-end action, and even featured great goaltending. It also featured players playing defense, and some strategy to win the game, like the Metro division pulling their goalie to try to tie the game. It was nothing like we've seen in an All Star game before. The Western Conference played a more normal game, ending 9-6, but even that was a credit to more about great play from the offensive stars than listless defense and hapless goaltending. If anything, that matchup featured some of the best saves of the night, including an absolutely stellar stretch save by Jon Gibson.

The final, game, though, was probably everything the NHL hoped this format would lead itself to. It was an All-Star game, 20 minutes of top NHL players going end to end, and ending 1-0. Not because the players stopped skating, but because they were trying really hard. There was bodying, if not checking. There was definitely back checking. There was awesome saves. There was great play, tough play in the corners. Players extending their shifts, not wanting to get off the ice. The final goal was scored by Corey Perry, and everyone reacted like it was a real game and a breakthrough goal. There was a sense of real celebration when the Pacfic Divisional pulled it off. This was a perfect storm, we saw three different outcomes in terms of score that detailed just how variable this game can be. Next year's game in LA has a lot to live up to.


2.) The Jon Scott Situation Ended Up Great for All Parties

For those who didn't follow, a grassroots campaign, first championed by Jeff Marek and Greg Wyshynski (of the stellar Marek vs. Whysynski podcast), ended up voting Jon Scott, a noted enforcer thought of as a lug, as captain of the Pacific Division. Marek and Whysynki did it for two reasons. First, the idea of having an enforcer, a seemingly 'unskilled player', play in a 3-on-3 game was a fascinating idea. Second, the NHL has limited the fans impact on voting so much, going from where they could vote for the whole starting lineup to just one guy, the 'captain' for each division. Scott easily won the fan voting, despite him pleading with fans to not vote for him. Of course, after he was announced as the winner, the fun started. First, the NHL tried to pressure him to not go for the game, to which he declined, understandably saying both that this is the first time he'll ever have a chance and that the fans have spoken. Then, the Phoenix Coyotes traded him to Montreal, who moved him straight to the minors. By this, he wouldn't be allowed to play.

And then the fans lost their minds. They demanded Scott play in the game. They saw the NHL pulling the strings on the whole thing. The NHL finally gave in and allowed Scott to play in the game and take his role as a captain of the Pacific Division, and seemingly unknowingly turned Jon Scott into a folk hero. The fans, despite many of them disliking the Scott groundswell, started to back Scott as their champion, their man - the everyguy getting his chance to play in the spotlight, and both sides played it brilliantly. Jon Scott was the fan favorite from the first time he was introduced on Saturday Night's Skills Competition. He got a standing ovation when he got up to take his attempt at the 'Hardest Shot'. He was given loud cheers, only matched by those for the hometown Nashville players, during Sunday's game. When he scored not once, but twice, the roof almost came down. It couldn't have played out any better, especially for Jon Scott.

The fairy-tale ending was Jon Scott winning MVP - which he did. What wasn't even part of those dream scenarios was him actually, arguably deserving it. Jon Scott did not seem out of place skating three on three with the best players in the league. His second goal, a snap shot high over Devan Dubnyk on a break-away was a skillfull play. It was a legitimate goal that if one of the real all stars would have scored it would have been raved. It was for Scott as well. The night ended with Jon Scott winning the MVP and then going over and picking up the Million Dollar Check from Gary Bettman - as we all thought it would when this whole drama started in the first place.


3.) Silently, Gary Bettman was one of the Big Winners

Gary Bettman, despite him and the league office getting pilloried for their handling of 'Le Affair Scott', secretly really won the night. First, the obvious part was him getting an extension through 2022, a nice reward for a guy who has done a reasonably good job of building the league. This likely puts him squarely in the center for the next potential work stoppage, but Gary Bettman got what he wanted, and honestly, what fans of the league should want. Through the issues with Roger Goodell, and some of the sheen of the David Stern era coming off, Gary Bettman's era of the NHL is starting to seem a lot better. The plain facts is the value of the NHL has quintupled since Bettman took over. The league is far, far stronger now than it was when he took over.

The weekend itself was secretly a celebration of Bettman's impact on the NHL. The game took place in Nashville. From beginning to end the players and fans attending could not say better things about the way Nashville hosted the event. Part of that is due to Nashville being an awesome city, but it was also partly due to Nashville showing itself as a great hockey market. One of Bettman's first initiatives was the expand the league into the American south, moving a few franchises and opening one's in Florida, Tampa, San Jose, Anaheim, Atlanta and Nashville. They didn't all work, but four of those six did. The Stars have a solid presence, Anaheim has a foothold in the LA area, San Jose is now fully a hockey market, Tampa Bay has a long sell-out streak and has been able to retain fans better than the Rays, and finally, Nashville is hockey mad. Without Bettman, that game isn't in Nashville. He threw hockey franchises at a dartboard of the US Map, to see what sticks. More stuck than even he probably imagined.

Finally, the new format of the All Star game was the league taking a risk. The NHL has never gotten enough credit for taking risks with its game. They've changed up OT to remove ties, first going to a shootout and then going to a 3-on-3 format to avoid shootouts (the regular season 3-on-3 has been amazing). They've altered rules to increase offensive play. They went through a large realignment that impacted historic franchises, like moving Detroit to the Eastern Conference. And they've changed their all star game format to make it matter. Going to three-on-three was a risk, but they hit a home run. Gary Bettman is not a great commissioner, but the booing of him is now fully for tradition rather than a real reflection of how he's ran the league.