Redemption Weekend

This is a weekend that generally the coming-out party of the teams with a bye. These are the top-4 teams in the NFL, the only teams in the league to win 75% of their games. However, they are all being treated as vulnerable toddlers if you take the mainstream media for their word. Every single team is being questioned, even the teams that have won 11 straight games coming in. The Saints and the Colts were being hailed as the "Greatest 2-Team Run Ever", and now they are seemingly freefalling faster than the Patriots. The Vikings were 12-4, and 8-0 in that ludicrously loud dome of theirs, however you have to look under canyons, let alone rocks, to find anyone that thinks they can even make this a game. Finally, people are being lured by Rex Ryan's hypnotic tummy, becuase the thinking in that game seems split. I'm calling it redemption weekend, as the teams being slammed for either entering the playoffs on losing streaks, or being slammed for not having a star on their helmets and having the most inanely annoying character in NFL history. Onto the games:

Arizona @ New Orleans (-6.5)

Cardinals: Offense - 1; Defense - 4; QB - 1; Coach - 1; Formula Rating: (1+4)*3 + 1+1 = 17
Saints: Offense - 2; Defense - 2; QB - 2; Coach - 2; Formula Rating: (2+2)*3 + 2+2 - 1 = 15

Formula Winner: New Orleans Saints

State of the Teams: So, these are the two best teams in the NFC, of course they have to play each other. This would have been a thrilling NFC Championship Game, yet one of that Minnesota-Dallas group will crash its way into the game next weekend. There is buzz for Arizona, however, I'm not quite sure why. Their defense was complete garbage for three quarters. They needed to make just one stop in that second half, one, and that was the game. Sure, their offense was at a 2007 Patriots level, but as the Patriots now know, that only goes so far. You need a defense too. The Saints have that defense, one that creates turnovers at a near-league high level. Charles Grant missing will be a problem, but at least its not Will Smith, or Sedrick Ellis. Everyone else is healthy. Jabari Greer, Roman Harper, Darren Sharper all healthy and ready to play. They can make stops on good offenses. The New Orleans o-line was knicked up near the end of the year, and reportedly the bye helped alot. Sure, they ended the year sourly, but its not like some of the other great offensive juggernauts ended the year great (cough*2007 Pats*hacking coughing up phlegm cough). They were still a team that at home fed off that crowd, and can sleep walk to 30 points.

Redemption Factor: People now hate the Saints. They have turned from America's darling into America's self-flaggelating lamb in three weeks. People have been bagging on them for weeks now. Evidently everyone just permanently deleted that Monday Night smackdown, their consecutive 40 points performances against the Eagles and Giants and all the other great showings they've had this year. Their defense was bagged on, as people overlooked serious injuries that are now fixed. This team is getting no love, which is shocking when they were universally hailed as the best team in football after that beatdown of the Pats. They have a crowd, a city and a state all behind them, and the Saints fans can jack-up that stadium like no other. This is a perfect week for the Saints to show up in full colors and remind the NFL that they are still the top team in the NFC.

Weird Stat to Help Me Pick the Game: Teams that score over 35 in the wild card round since 2002 are 2-5 in the divisional round.

Pick: I just cannot get that defensive performance by the Cardinals out of my head. Aaron Rodgers is an excellent player, but he's not Drew Brees, and Rodgers' stable of targets are not Colston, Moore, Meachem, Henderson, Bush, Thomas, Shockey, Thomas. The Cardinals just don't have the horses to keep up. I expect Warner to keep pace, but I think with the depth of the secondary of the Saints, the loss of Boldin, who is expected to miss the game, will be felt. Saints win it, more comfortably than expected, but the two teams still put on the most exciting show of the weekend. Cardinals 27 Saints 38 (NO)


Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-6.5)

Ravens: Offense - 3; Defense - 3; QB - 4; Coach - 1; Formula Rating: (3+3)*3 + 4+1 = 23
Colts: Offense - 1; Defense - 2; QB - 1; Coach - 3; Formula Rating: (1+2)*3 + 1+3 - 1 = 12

Formula Winner: Indianapolis Colts

State of the Teams: The Ravens are riding high after that blowout over the Pats, being the team to finally kill of any lingering media-birthed mystique Brady and Belichick might have had. Their running game is playing at an all-year high, putting up over 175 yards for three straight weeks. The defense is finally getting pressure and creating turnovers, and were solid against the run as they always are. Ngata, Gregg and Edwards (who is finally doing something after being a first-round pick in 2004) are plugging up the gaps, and letting Suggs, Lewis and Johnson roam free in space. Ray Lewis is playing very well, and the team is in total sync in when to rush, anticipating snap-counts brilliantly. However, getting turnovers, especially tipped-ball interceptions is luck, and it is hard to imagine them forcing three more first-quarter turnovers, and leading 24-0 after one quarter. Flacco enters with a bruised hip, and it showed as he had no real mobility and was sailing passes. He will need to do more than 34 yareds. The Colts, on the other hand, are entering with two straight losses, much controversial losses, where they rested everyone. They chose to rest players over pursue perfection, and there is no way to say that at least they succeeded at resting players. The Colts are by far healthier now than they have been all year. All of their players that were knicked up are now healthy and ready to go.

Redemption Factor: Only the Minnesota game has a higher redemption factor. The Colts are beng slammed. They were universally hated after throwing away a shot at perfection. It was as if the Colts were quilty of administering serial-beheadings to the entire state of Indiana. Now, there is added pressure and hate on the Colts becuase of some perceived "They were rusty in 2005 and 2007 when they sat guys". In 2005, after James Dungy tragic suicide, Dungy left the team and the Colts rested far MORE than they rested this year. They were rusty, but the way the team was handled was understandably poor. In 2007, they were not healthy. Freeney was out and Mathis and Brock were hobbling. Also, they did not play rusty, as Manning connected on his first 13 throws, and they had chances to win. The Colts are mad. They want to show the league that they are the team that won 14 straight games. That they are not going to be one-and-done again.

Weird Stat to Help Me Pick Games: Since the 2002 Division realignment, the home team is 6-1 on the Saturday Night Game, with the only loss being last year when Arizona beat Jake Delhomme (needless to say, Manning is not Delhomme).

Pick: The Colts are mad. They are the team that will make every play when neccesary. They have the confidence and the cool to play better at the tightest moments. The Ravens have thrown games away with penalties and turnovers, but when these two teams played in Week 11, it was the Colts that almost threw the game away. The Colts turned it over more, and Tom Santi fumbled at the goal-line when they could have taken a 24-9 lead. That game was not as close as a 17-15 game, and this won't be either. Manning is locked in. The Lucas Oil Field will be jacked up, roaring to go on a Saturday Night fest. The Ravens are riding high, but with a Colts defense that will not be a soft pillow against the run, and make Flacco throw more than 10 times, it's hard to envision them getting as many points. Ravens 14 Colts 27 (IND)


Dallas @ Minnesota (-2.5)

Cowboys: Offense - 3; Defense - 1; QB - 3; Coach - 3; Formula Rating: (3+1)*3 + 3+3 = 18
Vikings: Offense - 4; Defense - 3; QB - 4; Coach - 4; Formula Rating: (4+3)*3 + 4+4 - 1 = 28

Formula Winner: Dallas Cowboys

State of the Teams: The Cowboys are being hailed as the second coming of the '72 Dolphins at this point. Romo has been excellent at controlling the ball, which is really all he needs to do with a finally healthy and functioning running game. Their defense though is at a '00 Ravens high by the sounds of it. They have only allowed 14 points in their last three games COMBINED. Their front-seven is finally playing at the level it did in 2007 with Anthony Spencer reaching the potential that allowed Greg Ellis to be a replacable part. Jay Ratliff is getting excellent penetration on pass-rushing situations, and Olshansky and Spears are holding the point-of-attack well, shutting down the run. The key for the Cowboys is the secondary. They can be beat, but are playing with confidence. Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman are both playing well, but get into times where they play spottily and try to make plays on the ball when they aren't there. The Vikings seem to be in free fall, but their offense is still chumming along. Brett Favre has been amazing in the dome, and Peterson is still a back that requires at least 7 in the box. Percy Harvin is finally healthy, and having him back makes their trips set so much more dangerous. The Vikings defense has been exposed in the back-end, and it weirdly coincided with the return of Antoine Winfield. The depression in their secondary play is less voiced but more noticable and important than the loss of EJ Henderson. The Vikings are injury-plagued and many guys are playing down in the tail end of the season, but they all seem to raise their level in the dome.

Redemption Factor: This has never been higher maybe in memory. Only Arizona's round one game last year was anything near this. I have yet to find one person who thinks that the Vikings will win. Most people even expect the Cowboys to run all over them. The Vikings are the lowest favorite, and I am amazed that Vegas has not moved the line much, since there is roughly 70% of the betting action on the Cowboys. The Vikings have to be really, really mad at all this. They are 8-0 at home, were 10-1 at one point, and have dominated good teams at home. They play with that crowd, and those defenders on the d-line just get great jumps on the ball when at home. Even knowing all this, no one, and I mean NO ONE, is picking the Vikings.

Weird Stat to Help Me Pick This Game: Since the 2002 realignment, the home team is 3-4 in the Sunday Early game, with the road team winning three of the last four, and the one time that the home team won in the last four years it went to overtime (Seattle 24 Chicago 27).

Pick: I just cannot help but lose the feeling that the fact that there is no one picking the Vikings signals a huge letdown for the betting public and a huge win for Vegas. You cannot find one person that would pick the Vikings, even at like 10-1 odds. It's like this game is in Dallas and Jerry Jones is personally reffereeing, seeing the way people just assume Dallas is going to win. At least people have the whole "The top teams are on losing streaks" theory to drown out rational thought in the Saints and Colts games. There is no excuse for this. Even my self-made rankings love the Cowboys. If I have learned one thing from trying to watch betting lines and picks the last couple of years is that there are no obvious games. Here you have an team that is 8-0 at home, and on defense excels at rushing the passer and stopping the run. On the other side, you have a team that is 5-3 on the road, that loves to run the ball and has an offensive-line that has crazy periods of suckiness randomly. Why is this game so obvious? It's not for me. Vegas will build five new casinos after this one, if I am right (and my formula and the whole of America is wrong). Cowboys 20 Vikings 24 (MIN)


New York (a) @ San Diego (-7.5)

Jets: Offense - 4; Defense - 1; QB - 3; Coach - 4; Formula Rating: (4+1)*3 + 3+4 = 22
Chargers: Offense - 2; Defense - 4; QB - 2; Coach - 2; Formula Rating: (2+4)*3 + 2+2 - 1 = 21

State of the Teams: The Jets enter this game with their eyes focused and their mouths agape, spewing trash and bravado. Why not? They are the team that "backed in" and are now making the most of it. Their defense has beautifully adjusted to losing Kris Jenkins, and with the now health of David Harris, their pass-rush is effective and constant. Their running game is the best in the league, and with Shonn Greene bursting onto the scene with alarming success, it is only better now. That offensive-line is high-priced but mercilessly effective. Mark Sanchez was amazing in his playoff debut. He was cool and efficient. It helped that the Bengals forgot who Dustin Keller was, but Sanchez was still accurate on all his throws. The Chargers are the hottest team in the league. Winners of 11 straight, they have been ruthlessly effective throwing the ball deep. They have switched mentalities, eschewing crusty LT for Rivers and an aerial show. All his tall targets are excellent at going up for Rivers' perfect deep ball. They mix in their backs well in that passing game. That defense is finally playing better against the run, but is still vulnerable. In total, their defense is worse than the Bolts defense of each of the last five years, but they now are more poised late in close games.

Redemption Factor: This is really low. People love the Chargers. I mean they love them. The Colts are the new black-sheep for pulling their starters, while the Chargers are the new darling-team. They have taken surprisingly little flak for repeated playoff failures. They have know been labelled as one of the most talented teams (actually, most say they are the MOST talented) in the NFL for five years. What have they done: missed the playoffs in '05, one and done at 14-2 in '06, lost the Title game in '07, and were ball-cracked in Heinz Field in '08. If the Colts missed the Super Bowl for four straight years they would be crucified. However, they are not the Colts, they get the benefit of the doubt. People love them, and will pick them this week, and mercilessly pound money on them next week if they play Indianapolis.

Weird Stat to Help Me Pick This Game: The team entering the postseason with the longest winning streak since 2004 has not won the Super Bowl, with the 2005, 2006 and 2008 teams that entered the postseason with the longest winning streak not making it past the Divisional Round (2005 - Washington, 2006 - San Diego, 2008 - Indianapolis).

Pick: I love the Jets. They match up so well with the Chargers. The Jets can shut people down passing the ball. They did it to the Saints, they relatively did it to the Colts, they can do it to the Chargers. The Raiders are the only team that took V-Jax out of the game, and the Chargers beat them by 4 and 8. The Jets can run the ball better than any team in the NFL, and the Chargers have allowed 100 yards rushing in 13 of 16 games this year. The Jets are the best defense, and the Chargers have struggled to put away good defenses, let alone great ones. Call it a hunch, like most of these picks actually. The formula is suprisingly close, and that does it for me. The Chargers will have to endure another sadist winter, and maybe they will finally start taking some of the flak the Colts had to endure. Jets 20 Chargers 16 (NYJ)


Enjoy the Games!!!!

The End of an Era?

There they were, driving again into enemy territory. There he was, reared back to throw, delivering a dagger to Ben Watson and into the hearts of the Colts, cutting through the RCA Dome. There they were, celebrating, ready to deliver the knockout. The trip to meet the Bears was emminent, a fourth title in six years was emminent. Little did the Patriots know, did Tom Brady know, that a little piece of yellow cloth would change it all. Offensive Pass Interference was the call, 1st and 10 at the 19 became 2nd and 17 at the 34.

Then Reche Caldwell happened, and Peyton Manning and Dallas Clark happened, and David Tyree and Plaxico happened and now Ray Rice and Terrell Suggs happened. Gone was everything they worked for, everything they have acheived. Brady was still there, Belichick was still hoodied, but their faces express sadness not smugness, anhillation not exuberation. It was over. The dynasty, the mystique, the era, the decade. The team that won over America, then lost America, was finally losing themselves. The "end of an era" was here, as Kelley Washington exclaimed. He was wrong, it ended long before, when Troy Brown interfered with Nick Harper, when 1st and 10 became 2nd and 17.

The Patriots were the team of the decade because they represented America. They were smart, selfless, tough and talented. They played as a team, each player playing for each other, working together to do things that no team had ever done. Nothing was beyond their reach. Best Offense: they held them to three points. Best Defense: they scored 41 on them. Down 10 in the fourth quarter, doing nothing, about the choke away the last game in Foxboro: they scored 10 straight and broke hearts in Oakland. They were the team that could do anything. They could run, they could pass, they could defend both easily and effectively. They were the perfect TEAM. 10 straight playoff games, 10 straight opponents beaten. Guys like Tedy Bruschi, Mike Vrabel, Willie McGinest, Ty Law and Richard Seymour combined to create the must ruthlessly effective defense the sport had ever known. And controlling all the strings, masquerading as the enemy to protect the soldiers, was the hoodied one, Bill Belichick. They were America's team; the Patriots. They were a dynasty, born in New England, crowned in Jacksonville.

Then, the 2006 Title Game happened. They built the Patriot way: no player was more important than the next, no player would command more money than needed. This was the strategy that built a dynasty, and one that would eventually end it. Top receiver Deion Branch was let go, just another body trying to challenge the Patriot Way, another body that failed. Like always, the Patriots were effective defensively, second in the NFL in scoring defense, 12-4, winners of the AFC East, and winner's of another amazing comeback against the NFL's top team. Another year in the playoffs, another league MVP knocked off (Tomlinson, the 5th straight MVP the Pats had beaten in the playoffs), another showdown with their lap-dog the Colts awaited. The game started like any other Pats playoff game. The Pats made all the plays, the Colts made nary a one. The Pats controlled the game, marching up and down the field, pressuring Manning, shutting the once raucous RCA Dome into a stunned silence. Holding a 21-3 lead, Troy Brown was flagged for pass interference. Brady was sacked, and 35 points later, the Colts were the ones celebrating. It was all so knew. The year before, when Champ Bailey broke hearts and broke the Pats, that was merely a road-bump. A fitting conclusion to an injury marred season. However, this was different, this was a sign that the Patriot Way was over. Their defensive run was over, their ownership of the Colts was over. A new team was king of the AFC, the Colts were on top, Manning over Brady, Dungy over Belichick, drafting stars and paying them well over gathering team pieces, interchangable parts. The methodology of a Champion was new. It was not low-cost free agents, adding to a team that had the heart and the head to win. No, it was offense, it was stars. Get you QB and surround him with weapons. The Patriots did not do it, the Colts did, and the Colts charred that team with offensive fireworks. This was the true death of the Patriots dynasty. The dynasty, in what it was built on, the tenets of its very existence, were beaten, sentenced to death just two years after its highest point.

The reason that this moment, not the decrepid performance that was displayed on the Gillette Stadium field last Sunday, marked the last night of the Patriots Dynasty was that it signaled a change in the mindset, in the build, the makeup of the Patriots. The Patriot Way was beaten. Deion Branch fought the way, and lost. However, the Patriots lost their only reliable receiver, the ailment that killed them in the 2006 Title Game. They new having reliable receivers, what made the Colts so great, was a huge hole that laid itself right in the middle of a once sturdy lockerroom. In came Welker, and Moss and Stallworth, three receivers, all high-cost acquisitions. They were the heroes entering the castle, built to match the Colts, built to own the new NFL. However, they were no longer the same defense, one that could constrict the life out of any opponent. They were now the Colts, they were the team that they had hated and had beaten more often than not. They exploded on the NFL and the scoreboard, putting up points at record rates. Belichick, angered by slights and taunts due to his own cheating scandal, left the horses in, punching teams in the mouth and then kicking them when they laid motionless, defenseless on the ground. It was beautiful, vengeful, confident and callous all in one move. It led to wins and wins, touchdowns and touchdowns at record rates. Yet, it led to nothing but failure. They lost to the Giants, ending their run at perfection one game to soon. Two years later, whatever mystique, whatever ability they had to play better as the games got tighter, was lost. The Patriots had transformed, completing when they sent Richard Seymour to Oakland, piling him on the heap of discarded veteran leaders that led this team to Glory. They were now nothing like the team that piled up wins and Lombardi trophies with a confident ease.

The Patriots dynasty did not die Sunday. The new Pats died. They transformed their team into an offensive juggernaut, and like most offensive juggernauts, it ultimately ended in defeat. There was no swagger, no intensity. Tedy Bruschi once just ripped the ball out of Colts' Dominic Rhodes hands in the 2004 Playoffs, now it was them getting balls ripped out. The Patriots thought the Patriot Way, the very thing that led to ultimate success and the label of the first "Dynasty" of the 21st Century, was old and fruitless. They made a concerned effort to switch to an offense-first team, a team that emulated the Colts, the Rams, all of the teams the Dynastic Patriots used to beat with regularity. The new Patriots died, as Brady, Moss all aged before our eyes. Now, Welker is probably out till mid 2010, and Moss seems to be more interested in putting things on his big shoulders than playing a game. Brady is not the same post-injury, and seeing by Carson Palmer's play, he may never be the same again. It is now over, the post-Dynasty offensive juggernaut Patriots, that is. The real Patriots, the ones that held the Lombardi Trophy over their heads three times, that beat MVP's and stars time after time, were long gone, decaying in the now-barren RCA Dome, the sight of their defensive emasculation, the sight of their now scalped defense-first mantra. The Pats are never-more now, but in reality, the Pats have never been the Pats. They were the Colts-wannabes. The Pats have been gone for three years now, and it will be a while before they reach those levels again, and it won't be with Brady and Belichick, as they are too far gone in their offense-first mentality, and too advanced in age to change.

Had the offensive pass-interference never been called, the Patriots probably would have tacked on some more points, making an already one-sided game into a blowout that would have shaken the NFL earth, forever killing the Colts. Instead, it killed the Patriots dynasty. When the Cowboys were finally beaten by the Panthers, an upstart team with less wins than the Cowboys had hall-of-famers, it was over. They were never to be seen again. When Joe Montana fumbled the exchange to Roger Craig, he was never to lead that team to a Super Bowl again (I'm guessing that Brian Hoyer is not Steve Young incarnate). When the Bills smashed the Steelers, Bradshaw and Noll never stook on top of the football world again. And finally, when Brown needlessly smashed Nick Harper, and the yellow cloth bounced of the RCA Dome turf, they were never to hold the league hostage again. The dynasty was over, dead, lifeless. That was the last night of the Patriots dynasty.

Wild Card Weekend Review

So, one round in the books, and the best weekend of football to come. Four great games are in store this week. I can see any of the four NFC teams winning, and the dichotomy between the Chargers and Colts and Jets and Ravens is interesting, in a new school vs old school twist. Either way, I would be remiss to pass over a chance to award and scold those who made wild card weekend a combination of football from 1975 (34 yds? WTF? Running? "This is NOT what I signed up FOR!!!") and two 10 year olds playing Madden on rookie level in that last game. Here are some quick awards for round one.

Player of the Week - Kurt Warner, QB Arizona

This stat line is really as good as it gets: 29-33 376 5 tds. Those are the numbers of a first-ballot hall of famer. Sure, the Packers defense was moving around like drunks at time square, but numbers are numbers. Warner is now 9-3 in the playoffs, with six three-hundred yard games. He now ranks fourth all-time in TDs in the playoffs, and is eighth in yards. Those numbers are the stuff of real legends (unlike the next guy, a fake legend). I really hope he doesn't retire, as it really is a joy to watch Kurt Warner play in the playoffs. Watching Kurt Warner fling the ball around is something that needs to be cherished every time it happens, as every single team he cocks his arm back, might be one less tick in that career clock falling through.

Goat of the Week - Tom Brady, QB

If you thought that the Warner section was a bunch of sugary prose, it was. Fear not, this section will not be. Tom Brady was so bad, Gisele reportedly started the affair with DiCaprio after the first interception, and was pregnant by the third. Brady was horrible. The media's coddling of him is amazing, as no one, but the soothesayer of the times Dieon Sanders, was man enough to openly criticise him. He's not hurt, as he was 23-26 three weeks ago, with the same reported Rib Injury. No, he just stunk. He was complete shit. He threw the ball 42 times, and gained only 154 yards? I could do that, by just throwing one yard quicks to Moss. He was sacked three times and turned the ball over 4 times, at home no less. Manning has only played that bad a playoff game once, and that was on the road as a prohibitive underdog in a snowstorm. Brady's first interception was high-school level bad. Carson Palmer went 18-36 with no TDs, and Shayne Graham missed two field goals that any competent Pop Warner kicker hits, and neither of them win 'Goat of the Week'. Talk about an upset.

Surprise Player of the Week - Dustin Keller, TE Jets

I was going to go with Early Doucet, for stepping in for Boldin and putting up two tds, but Keller deserves this in every conceivable way. Really, here is a guy who was such a dissapointment in the regular season that people just completely forgot about his primary existence, letting him off the hook for doing jack for 17 weeks. Keller was invisible. Maybe he doesn't like Mexicans, who knows. Where was this Dustin Keller all year. He was absolutely Benjamin Watson-y. It was completely inexplicable that he suddenly turned into neo-Kellen Winslow (the senior, not the thug "warrior" junior) and turned that playoff game around. He was finally the TE that so many (me) thought he would be when we (I) picked him early in my fantasy draft. Screw you, Keller, for stringing the fantasy world along. But congrats for Manning up and balling out in round one.

Dissapointing Player of the Week - DeSean Jackson, WR Eagles

Where were you? Maybe you aren't all your crack-self thought you were. You crowned your ass, and know that we (I) are not letting you off the hook. He evidently tweeted multiple times how he would run all over the Cowboys, instead he bended over. He opened it up, and took multiple jabs from all of the Cowboys players. Honestly, the performance by the whole Eagles was reprihensible, but for someone that talks as much shit as DeSean does, that was an awfully silent performance. The Eagles are one of the classier teams (note: not classier fan-bases) in the NFL, and that was truly un-Eagle like behavior.

Team Performance of the Week - Arizona Cardinals Offense

There is nothing harder than protecting a lead while still playing to score. I think the Cardinals perfected such a quandary. That was vintage Warner. That was the Greatest Show on Turf. What classifies something to be like the "Greatest Show on Turf" is when the offense is so effective that it just looks effortless, like the receivers are always running free, the ball is always there. That is how the Rams used to do it, and how the Saints did it early in '09. The Packers looked like they had to work for those yards, that great-catches had to be made. Not so for the Cards. It was easy, it was on. Here was their drive-by-drive results: TD, TD, FG, PUNT, TD, TD, TD, PUNT, TD, MISS FG, TD. That was offense at its very best. No turnovers, no negative plays. Just yard after yard and point after point.

Team Lay-Down of the Week - New England Patriots Whole Entire Organization

Worst Home Playoff Defeats of the last 5 years (Points given for missed 2-point conversions as extra-points):
5.) Pittsburgh 31 Cincinnati, 2005 Wild Card
4.) Pittsburgh 34 Denver 17, 2005 AFC Championship
3.) Baltimore 27 Miami 9, 2008 Wild Card
2.) Arizona 33 Carolina 13 - 2008 Divisional Round
1.) Baltimore 34 New England 14 - 2009 Wild Card

That's right. That was the worst home performance of the last five years. This was a team that had never lost a playoff game in that Stadium since Tom Brady was one. This was a team that was 14-3 in the playoffs, and had never lost to the Ravens, ever. That was a team with the best owner, best coach, best QB, best WR, best Stadium and best urinals (all of those are not true, except for one, as told by urinal-ranker.net). They were down 24-0 before the team had 20 yards of offense. Their first four possessions: Fumble, Punt, Interception, Interception. The Ravens first five possessions (the ones sandwiching those four): TD, TD, Punt, TD, FG. Game over. It was that easy to emasculate any "fear" that really was never there since Super Bowl XLII. The dynastic Patriots died that night in Denver in January 2006, when Brady was hammered constantly, but played admirably against immense pressure in a jacked-up Mile High. The post-Dyansty Patriots (the NFL's version of the 2001-2007 high-priced team-less Yankees) died last night. However, unlike the Yankees, Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett are not walking through that Foxboro door. Stick a fork in the Pats. The Brady-Belichick days of winning Super Bowls are done.

Storyline that will be Beat to the Ground This Week - Colts Rested Their Starters

Don't you know that this is the first Colts game in one month? No, you don't. Well it is. Let alone that in the first game the starters played midway through the third quarter, and in Week 17 they played midway through the second. The Colts lack the physicality to fight the Ravens when they are rusty. Of course, Arizona rested everyone including their towel boy (somehow, Larry Fitzgerald's barber was not given the week off), and went on to explode to the tune of 513 yards and 51 points. No, no. Don't you understand the Colts always lose when they rest their starters, except for those two times in 2003 and 2004, where they rested and beat the Broncos a combined 90-34. The Colts will fall down like the Pats in that first quarter becuase they are rusty. Of course, the Pats didn't rest in Week 17 (and lost anyway), and Tom Brady played like utter manure. Rest will kill the Colts.

Storyline that Should be Beat to the Ground - Jets Matchup Well with Chargers

Of course, the main-stream media will disregard actual football when they preview the week ahead. If they did, they would notice that the media's lover-boys, the Chargers who were the odds-on favorite to reach the Super Bowl in 2006 and lost, do not match up well with the Jets at all. On defense, the Jets aren't great against the run. Not to worry, the Chargers are the worst rushing team in the NFL. The Jets are great at stopping the deep ball and blitzing and have a corner who can shut anybody down. That matches up brilliantly against a team that really can only move the ball with the deep ball (something they are incredible at), with only one plus reciever and a QB who struggles when blitzed. Then the Jets are great at running the ball, and the Chargers are porous on run defense this year after losing Jammall "I'm so fat I ate Shawne Merriman's ability" Williams. Honestly, the Jets are a matchup nightmare for the Chargers. How happy am I (btw, so were the Bengals, who were essentially a slightly less-competent version of the Jets, or at least less competent at the kicker position).


Wild Card weekend was merely the appetizer. The entree awaits. Eight good teams, including the league's heretofore four best? Sign me up. Four great crowds, six great QBs, eight great teams, hall-of-famers everywhere? Shackle me down. I will be watching every minute. Thank God NYU only starts next week.

Round 2 Re-Ranking

After round one, a round with three blowouts, including one cathartic orgasmic ball of a blowout in Foxboro, and a classic (although we'll get to it later in the week), we need to re-rank these teams for the formula.

Rankings Overview

AFC

Offense
1.) Indianapolis (Previous: 1)
2.) San Diego (Previous: 2)
3.) Baltimore (Previous: 4)
4.) New York (Previous: 6)

The Ravens and Jets did not really change, because the 3 and 5 rankings lost, to them.

Defense
1.) New York (Previous: 1)
2.) Indianapolis (Previous: 3)
3.) Baltimore (Previous: 4)
4.) San Diego (Previous: 5)

Again, no real switches. I had to really hold putting Baltimore over Indianapolis, but one game cannot sway me that much. Obviously, if they beat them this week, then by default they will get a higher rating than Indianapolis.

Quarterback
1.) Peyton Manning (Previous: 1)
2.) Philip Rivers (Previous: 2)
3.) Mark Sanchez (Previous: 6)
4.) Joe Flacco (Previous: 5)

Joe Flacco falls down below Mark Sanchez. This is hard for me to do, but Sanchez played great, as they limited the type of plays, but the Bengals just could not cover that play-action bootleg to the tight end. Flacco seems hurt, and that performance really was only better than Tom Brady, because he threw only one interception, not 47.

Coach
1.) John Harbaugh (Previous: 2)
2.) Norv Turner (Previous: 3)
3.) Jim Caldwell (Previous: 5)
4.) Rex Ryan (Previous: 6)

No changes here, either. Ryan had a good round one, Harbaugh had a better one, and for that Turner-Caldwell sandwich, they have the right to prove themselves in round two.

NFC

Offense
1.) Arizona (Previous: 2)
2.) New Orleans (Previous: 1)
3.) Dallas (Previous: 6)
4.) Minnesota (Previous: 3)

Lots of movement, with Minnesota dropping, due to Dallas' great performance. Now, that performance came against an Eagles team that had a Nancy Kerrigan-like lay-down, but they were finally able to throw up points with yards. Arizona was just unstoppable against a good defense. Warner was unbelievable, and quietly (mainly quietly due to pinball-like points that were being scored) Beanie Wells was also excellent. They are a dominant force in the playoffs.

Defense
1.) Dallas (Previous: 1)
2.) New Orleans (Previous: 4)
3.) Minnesota (Previous: 5)
4.) Arizona (Previous: 3)

Arizona tummels because they were not able to stop Mr. Rogers, let alone Aaron. They were unbeleivably..... bad. That was depressing. All the other three stayed in the same order, except for Arizona. That was hard to watch.

Quarterback
1.) Kurt Warner (Previous: 1)
2.) Drew Bress (Previous: 2)
3.) Tony Romo (Previous: 5)
4.) Brett Favre (Previous: 6)

Same as before. Kurt Warner is now entrenched at the top after that hall-of-fame clinching performance.

Coach
1.) Ken Whisenhunt (Previous: 1)
2.) Sean Payton (Previous: 2)
3.) Wade Phillips (Previous: 4)
4.) Brad Childress (Previous: 6)

Same as before. With a win in his resume (finally) he has a chance to move up. Not it this, but in those coach rankings that I did (which John Harbaugh is rappelling up at record pace).


Anyway, those are the updated rankings for the formula predictor, which is already beating me 3-1 to 2-2.

Preview
Wednesday: Round 1 Review
Thursday: Random Essayist Musing
Friday: Picks

NFL Wild Card Round Picks

I am picking games two ways:
1.) Straight up, using a handy little formula that makes use of the rankings that I gave out for each team on offense, defense, QB and coach. The team with the lower total is my predicted winner using the formula.
2.) Against the spread, using my personal insight and feeling about a game. This is not at all related to the formula, but most likely will have the same overall winner.

It is true head (formula winner) vs. heart (my winner). However, the formula is based on arbitrary rankings that I myself gave, so its less mathematical, and more a way to compete against myself.

Fomula = (Offense + Defense) * 3 + QB + Coach (home team: -1)

New York @ Cincinnatti (-2.5)

Jets: Offense - 6; Defense - 2; QB -6; Coach - 6. Formula Rating: (6+2)*3 + 6+6 = 36
Bengals: Offense - 5; Defense - 1; QB - 4; Coach - 4. Formula Rating: (5+1)*3 + 4+4 - 1 = 25

Formula Winner: Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals are just the better team, in a hostile environment willing to sacrifice newborns for some playoff joy. The Jets are a .500 team, one that blew games to the Jaguars, Falcons and Dolphins of the world, that got lucky. The luck has officially run out. Cinderella, its just a pumpkin now, honey.

Jets 10 Bengals 20 (CIN)


Philadelphia @ Dallas (-4)

Eagles: Offense - 5; Defense - 6; QB - 3; Coach - 5. Formula Ranking: (5+6)*3 + 3+5 = 41
Cowboys: Offense - 6; Defense - 1; QB - 5; Coach - 4. Formula Ranking: (6+1)*3 + 5+4 - 1 =29

Formula Winner: Dallas Cowboys

I'm going against the formula. Dallas is riding too high. No way the Eagles can play that terrible for two straight weeks. Also, this problem that Dallas has turning yards into points is scary. In a conference loaded with offensive teams, that is most necessary. Keep up the score. Instead, the Cowboys will let the Eagles keep it close, before the Eagles inevitably take it, sending them past their first game, as always happens.

Eagles 24 Cowboys 21 (PHI)


Baltimore @ New England (-3)

Ravens: Offense - 4; Defense - 4; QB - 5; Coach - 2. Formula: (4+4)*3 + 5+2 = 31
Patriots: Offense - 3; Defense - 6; QB - 2; Coach - 1. Formula: (3+6)*3 + 2+1 - 1 = 29

Formula Winner: New England Patriots

The formula has this game amazingly close. I feel the same way, but I will go against with the formula, and even say the Ravens steal one. The Ravens have never beaten the Pats.... in their franchise history. The Pats have never lost a playoff game in Gillette Stadium and are 8-0 at home. They will rally around Welker's loss, at least for one week. That all said, they simply are not better than the Ravens. The best team the Pats had beaten all year was....... The Jets? Yeah, that's not exactly impressive. They are the ultimate paper tiger, leaving and breathing proof that five years of middling self-relavance can be overcome by four years of greatness. It will now be 6 years since the Patriots raised the Lombardi trophy. I think its time we stop calling them the Golden standard of the league.

Ravens 23 Patriots 17 (BAL)


Green Bay (-.5) @ Arizona

Packers: Offense - 4; Defense - 1; QB - 4; Coach - 3. Formula Ranking: (4+1)*3 + 4+3 = 22
Cardinals: Offense - 2; Defense - 3; QB - 1; Coach - 1. Formual Ranking: (2+3)*3 + 1+1 - 1 = 16

Formula Winner: Arizona Cardinals

These are my two favorite teams in the NFC. It is a true shame, one I blame on the Vikings and Eagles for screwing it up, that they have to play each other. I would take any one of these teams over the Cowboys or Eagles, home or away. As for this game, I cannot get the sight of last year's postseason out of my mind. They owned last year, and that crowd was great. With this maybe being Warner's last year, I can see him having one last vintage Warner performance at home.

Packers 20 Cardinals 28 (ARZ)


Enjoy The Games!!!

2009 NFL Playoff Primer - AFC

6.) Baltimore Ravens (9-7)

Offense: They have returned to their roots. They are a running team again, putting up three games of over 175 yards rushing in their last four. They have even had success running against the better teams that they have played, going over 100 against San Diego, Indianapolis, each Pittsburgh matchup and against New England. However, what hurts them is that thier passing game has decreased in its efficiency and effectiveness in the second half of the season. In the second half of the season, in which the Ravens were 5-3, Joe Flacco's comp%, ypa and td% and int% have all dropped. This also has to do with people finally finding out that there are no real good targets for Flacco to throw at, other than Ray Rice. Derrick Mason has been struggling, and Mark Clayton and Kelly Washington are not really the latter day Rice and Taylor. Todd Heap has been a nice surprise, and the team is 4-0 in games where he scores a TD. Flacco can throw deep outs, but that is a route that gets harder and harder as it gets colder, and the teams that they are playing get better. The key is that offensive line. When Jared Gaither was healthy and manning the LT, putting Michael Oher at RT, the offense was sminning along nicely. However, when Gaither went down, shifting Oher to LT and Oneal Cousins to RT, it sputtered. Gaither is back, but did give up a sack against Oakland. It is unknown how back he really is. If the o-line plays well, that whole offense is just efficient. Not explosive, but efficient. Ranking: 4

Defense: This is not your dad's Ravens. This is not your last-year's'-self's Ravens from 2008. Their overall numbers are nice, 3rd in scoring and yards, 8th against the pass, 5th against the run. But let's look deeper. They ranked 14th in giving up 20+ yard passes. The only playoff team that they held to under 350 yards was the Patriots. Even the Bengals got over 350 both games. The still force turnovers, and have excelled at forcing turnovers in those same games against playoff competition. The key to the defense is the play of Terrell Suggs and Jarret Johnson. Unlike most 3-4s, the Ravens depend on those LBs, especially for pressure. If Suggs and Johnson can make plays, they will be able to conceal the problems they have had in the back-end. Reed is back, but still gimpy from that groin injury. Teams this year, especially now with Reed's limited mobility, have been able to gameplan around Reed and still hit deep balls, but just the thought of having Reed there seems like a sleeping giant, ready to just explode on someone. In fact, the sleeping giant seems to describe the team as a whole, however, it seems like their nap will continue to 2010. Ranking: 4

Quarterback: Joe Flacco has experience, I'll say that. I'll also say this, his experience has been really up-and-down. He has gone 2-1 last year, but never even completed 50% of his passes in any of those games, and capped it all off with a game-losing pick-six. His play this year has bounced from amazing to awful, and his prospect has gone from super-star to sophomore-slump. All I know is that in the year of the QB, it's hard to have too much confidence. Ranking: 5

Coach: On the other hand, John Harbaugh seems to have avoided all signs of a sophomore-slump. He is the third coach ever to inherit a non-playoff team and go to the playoffs in his first two years. He has made all the right calls, and I have never seen anybody able to manage the clock and his timeouts like he does. Every call he makes seems to be spot-on. Ranking: 2

Interesting Note: The Ravens have not won a home-playoff game since the Wild-Card Round in 2000. They are 6-4 in playoff games since, having only two at home, losing both.

5.) New York Jets (9-7)

Offense: Run, run, run. There is really nothing else. Thomas Jones probably had the most under-the-radar 1400 year ever. Combine that with the bruising of Shonn Greene and the play of Brad Smith, and they have the only true three-headed-rushing monster, and more credit is given to them for recovering from the injury to Leon Washington. Much of that is due to their offensive line. The Ferguson-Faneca-Mangold left side is the best in football in run-blocking. Now let's get to Sanchez. Honestly, him and that passing game, is by far the worst in the playoff field. Dustin Keller seems to have been deported in the offseason, and is replaced by a hand-less stunt-double. Braylon, it seems, can still drop passes in other states. Jerico Cotchery was a nice surprise. Mark Sanchez is 2-6 when he throws 25 passes or more. That is not good, especially when the teams in the AFC are good enough defensively to slow that running game. Ranking: 6

Defense: This is, numbers wise, the best defense in the NFL. They had the top-ranked pass defense, something that Rex Ryan seemed to have stolen from Baltimore. However, they don't really get to the quarterback (22nd in sacks) and don't intercept many passes (14th). So, it boils down to coverage, and much of that is the God that is Darrelle Revis. I know a little a bit about the position of shutdown corner, having been following a team with the best CB in the league in Nnamdi. However, Darrelle came close this year, shutting down everyone not named Tedd Ginn (ironically). He is great at bump, off and press coverage. Can stop people short, can cover deep on the fly. Their run D has struggled, relatively, after losing Jenkins and getting David Harris nicked up, but are still a top-half unit, and other than Cincinnatti and Baltimore (who they could only face in a wild 5-6 title game which has never happened) there is no top runnning game in the AFC. The David Harris injury is big. If he plays, he gives them the best pass-rush, run-stuff combo they have. If not, they are sorely lacking one of their best pass-rushers, and they are already a bit light on the pass-rush side. Another worrying note is the teams lack of being able to make a stop when needed. This is the calling card of a great team, and as witnessed by the two Miami games, the Atlanta game and the Jacksonville game, the Jets have had problems of making key stops in close games late, something that may very well come back to haunt them. Ranking: 2

Quarterback: Here is Mark Sanchez's stat-line: 12 tds, 21 ints, two games with a passer rating over 100. In other words, that translates to this: worst QB in the playoffs. He's a rookie, so he can, and hopefully for the Jets fans, will get better. But, to put him in the same class as Flacco, Ryan and Big Ben as rookies is disrespectful. Ranking: 6

Coach: If this were a coordinator ranking, then it gets an A. However, Rex Ryan has not shown his ability as a game manager, and struggles mightily with his defense in close games, which is the sign of a coach that is struggling. The other AFC coaches are great, so this hurts him. Again, as a DC he is top-notch though. Ranking: 6

Interesting Note: The Jets are the first team ever to lead the league in points allowed and not win double-digit games.

4.) Cincinnati Bengals (10-6)

Offense: For a while, they were the neo-Broncos, getting consecutive 100 yd games out of Bernard Scott, Larry Johnson and Cedric Benson. That didn't last long, but Cedric Benson has.
For whatever reason, be it scheme or o-line or just simple maturity, Benson is now a legitimate top-10 running back. He hits the holes hard, and is rarely stopped for negative yards, something that was as common as wind back in Chicago. Their o-line is a patchwork group, and really doesn't give good protection to Palmer at all, but excels in drive-blocking. Their passing offense has really sputtered after the injury (not death) of Chris Henry, losing the best vertical threat they had. Henry was able to open up holes for Chad underneath. As for the rest of their stable, let's just say that Laveraneaus Coles is no TJ Houshmanzadeh, and Andre Caldwell is no bug-eyed Reche Caldwell. Overall, they are the least impressive offensive team in the playoffs, but I attribute that more to their o-line, and their conservative approach. They know their defense will keep them in games (save for the game in the Metrodome and Week 17). They have been excellent in close games 7-2 in games decided by less than 7 points (discounting Stokley's miracle in Week 1). It seems, as evidenced by that game winning 97 yard drive against the Chiefs, that they can move the ball when necessary. This is also evident in the passing game, as in the biggest game of the year, it was Palmer's arm that nearly pulled off the win in San Diego. Ranking: 5

Defense: Throw out Week 17. They had no intention of playing that game with any sense of passion or even pride. That was a team essentially in a walk-through. In their 15 real games, this was, arguably the best defense in the NFL. They were better than the Jets, becuase they could close out games. They excelled in close games, able to force turnovers (possibly on downs) to seal games. Their duo of corners is the best in the league, with Leon Hall and Jonathan Joseph. Only four receivers got to 100 yards against them, the second best figure in the league. It is not ridiculous to say that the Bengals have two of the top-10 corners in the league. Without Mauluaga, their LB corp is weaker, but the true stud, Keith Rivers, is finally healthy. With Dumato Peko and Robert Geathers back for the playoffs, they have their two most important lineman. This is a pressure-based gam scheme, similar to what Lewis ran back in Baltimore, and it excels, as he just plugs in guys (Michael Johnson, Frostee Rucker, Jonathan Fanane) and they all just get pressure on the QB. It is a sight to behold. The Bengals knew they had to Raven and Steeler-up to compete in the AFC North, and for 2009 at least, they passed them both. Ranking: 1

Quarterback: It has not been Carson Palmer's best year, but I attribute that mainly to the o-line, the lack of any weapons, and the conservative gameplan. However, I have to dock Carson because none of that is going to change. I love Carson, but honestly, he has never been the same since that 2005 playoff game hit. That is the second greatest what-if injury of the decade (first comes later!!!) Ranking: 4

Coach: Marvin Lewis has done yeoman's work in Cincinnatti. Even when they were "dissappointing" they hovered around .500 which is better than most coaches in Bengals history. Marvin's game management is surprisingly good, as he saves timeouts well. He keeps his and the team's cool in close games, which is always a plus. Good, solid coach. Ranking: 4

Interesting Note: Their +14 point differential is the lowest in the playoffs (aided by their 37-0 loss in Week 17). Each of the last two years, the team that had the lowest point differential made the Super Bowl. NYG in 2007 (+14) and ARZ in 2008 (+1).

3.) New England Patriots (10-6)

Offense: Who will replace Welker? Not Julian Edelman. Honestly, the way that people opine "Edelmen is just another Welker" is far from the truth, and just blatant racism, if anything. Here are Brady's numbers in Welker-less games (including Week 17): 65-115, 679 yards, 1 td and 2 ints. I'm sorry, but that's impact. Now, their running game did pick up the slack (all of those games, ironically were played with a stable of healthy RBs, inlcuding Fred Taylor) averaging over 120 yards in those three games. Their running-backs are finally all healthy, but none of them are game-changers, and they all have their problems in the red zone. Maroney is a chronic fumbler and is far inside the Belichick Doghouse. Morris, Taylor and Faulk have all had nice years, but with only 8 tds and 2 100-yd games between them, they are harldy world-beaters. The key in this is if Brady can start getting the tight-ends involved, and alot of that has to do with the o-line. In games where the TE's caught 5 balls, the Pats were 7-2 (3-4 otherwise). The TEs are kept into block more than usual, since the o-line has really dropped off since their 2007 heyday, especially Nick Kaczur at RT and Matt Light at the other tackle spot. If they can block, than Watson and Baker can recieve more, allowing Brady to spread it around, as Brady has really struggled to find a third receiver, let alone now a second one. Ranking: 3

Defense: The ultimate smoke and mirrors. Overall, the numbers are fine. However, against competition above .500, and discounting the Jets for their offense impotency, they gave up over 350 yards each time, over 400 yards in three of those games (IND, NO, HOU). Now, all of those teams were in the top-10 of offense, but those are the types of teams New England will have to eventually face. In fact, even beyond just yardage, in every meaningful stat, the Pats struggled against the quadro of IND, NO, BAL, and HOU. They forced only 6 turnovers (22 in the other 12 games). They got only 5 sacks (26 in the other 12). They gave up 128 points in those four games (157 in the other 12). That is the most damning stat. They gave up about 13 points per game against the 12 teams they faced that were either the Jets or .500 and below, and 33 points per game against the top-four teams they faced. They don't get nearly the pressure that Patriots teams in the past used to, and there are far more blown coverages now. The McGowan/Meriwether/Chung safety trio has really fallen off of late. Their corners are average at best. The killer is the continued nagging injuries of Vince Wilfork and Ty Warren, who they desperately need now without Richard Seymour. Their LBs struggle at pressure when Warren and Wilfork are in there. It dissapears when they are gone. Ranking: 6

Quarterback: It's still Tom Brady, but any person can tell you that he is just not the same in 2009. His numbers are fine, and are better than any other non-2007 year, but we expected more. Brady feasted on lesser competition, shredding the Tennesee-Tampa-Jacksonville trio. However, other than a great performance for three quarters in Indianapolis, we never saw the Tom Brady that was torching the league in 2007 in any meaningful game. Again though, it's Brady. Ranking: 2

Coach: Belichick postseason coaching record: 15-4. The other 5 coaches coaching record: 6-5. Enough said. It hasn't been Belichick's best year, but still, he has more coaching wins than the rest of the AFC field has coaching games. Ranking: 1

Interesting Note: The Patriots have not lost a home playoff game ever at Gillette Stadium, and Tom Brady hasn't lost a home game as a starting QB since.... Week 10 in 2006.

2.) San Diego Chargers (13-3)

Offense: The Air Show. They have the worst running game in the league. Period. They average 3.3 ypc, worst in the league. Tomlinson is done. Sproles is not a good runner. Jacob Hester was a waste of a second-round pick. This only just adds to the mystique of Phillip Rivers and that pass-attack. Teams know that San Diego can't run at all. They know it to be true. Yet, Rivers is on a career-best tear, topping 260 yards for 5 straight games, with 11 tds and 2 ints in that time. His ability to throw the deep-jump ball to Vincent Jackson and Malcolm Floyd is amazing. Also, quietly, Antonio Gates had another all-pro year. They are 6-1 when Gates catches a TD, and even better when Vincent Jackson gets into the end zone. If there is another flaw, other than that putrid run-game, it is the offensive-line. They don't give up that many sacks, but against the better sacking teams they played (Cincy, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Denver, Eagles, Cowboys) they gave up nearly three a game. The line is still not healthy, and it cannot pass block. This again, has not stopped the Chargers from becoming the third-most dangerous passing team in the league one bit. Ranking: 2

Defense: Mediocre in every way. 11th in scoring, 16th in yards, 18th against the pass, 20th against the run, 19th in sacks and 19th in turnovers. Those numbers are not helping inspire too much confidence in a team that will need its defense if it goes to Indianapolis. Jammal Williams absence has been huge. He is the premier run-stuffing NT in the game, and missing him the whole year has allowed all but three teams to run for 100 on them. That is not a good number, especially with Baltimore, Cincinnati and New York lingering in the playoffs. Antonio Cromartie has not taken off into superstardom like so many expected after that monster rookie season of his (Darrelle Revis is now by far the best corner product of that 2007 draft). However, Quinten Jammer has had a nice rebound year. He is solid at the other corner, as teams now throw at Cromartie to avoid Jammer. The linebackers are now better run-stuffers than pass-rushers, and Shawn Merriman and Shaun Phillips have really been outplayed by their rotating inside linebackers in every way. This defense is just not a premier unit. They will have to outscore teams. Lucky for them, they can. Ranking: 5

Quarterback: Honestly, the case for MVP for Phillip Rivers is a good one. However, Rivers has never really been a playoff MVP. He was mediocre in his two losses to the Pats in 2006 and 2007 and both games last year. Other than his 2007 game in Indy, he has never put up a passer rating above 100 in a playoff game, or thrown more TDs than Interceptions. Ranking: 3

Coach: Norv Turner's life has turned around since he was handed the keys to a Lamborghini. He won the lottery. However, his passing attack that he has built has been spactacular. He is still wasteful with timeouts, but he and Rivers run the two-minute as well as anyone not in the following team preview. He is no longer a coaching liability. Ranking: 3

Interesting Note: The Chargers are just the second team since the expansion to 16 games to enter the playoffs with a winning streak of at least 11 games.

1.) Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

Offense: Peyton. One word. That is it. He makes their o-line better. He makes their average second and third WRs better. He makes that running game managable. The running game is only marginably better than San Diego's, yet Joseph Addai's season is about 3 times better than LTs. The running game, though, is meaningless. It's all about Peyton. He has been pressed, with two new receivers to break in. His o-line has lost its RG and LT to just general suckiness. And somehow, he kept them afloat with a nice little 4500 yards 33 td season. If Garcon just caught three more passes, they would be the first team in NFL history with 5 receivers to catch 50 balls. Regardless, they were just the fifth team to have four receivers gain 600 yards. Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon are now legitimate threats, and each of their catch rates increased (Garcon's dramatically) in the second half of the season. In totaly, it's Manning, Wayne and Clark that will win the games, though. Clark and Wayne are the best WR-TE combo in the league, and with Manning delivering the balls, there really is no reason to fear an offense that is anything it wants. They won a game with holding the balls for less than 15 minutes. They won a game in which their offense had to come back from 17 down (twice). The perfect Colts drive, though, is against Denver. Denver had cut it to 21-16, and the Colts got the ball at the 16 yard line with nine minutes left. Manning went on a 14 play, 86 yard drive that took 7 minutes and made the Broncos burn all of their timeouts, before throwing the clincher to Clark. That is the mark of a great offense. Ranking: 1

Defense: They still do all the things that drive Colts fans crazy, like give up countless third down conversions. They still give up points in the middle quarters, but there is no team that can throw the hammer down like them. They lead the league in fourth-quarter sacks and takeaways, and are second in fourth-quarter scoring defense. Mathis and Freeney are healthy and well-rested, ready to rush off the edge. Also, the biggest difference between this Colts team and earlier years is that they blitz more. Brackett and Clint Session will each come around 5 times a game. Also, they are much better at stopping the run, more sure-handed and fast. The last two games greatly inflated their points allowed. Make no mistake, this is a top-10 unit, if not top-5. Ranking: 3

Quarterback: He's the MVP. He's the best QB. He's the best player on the planet. 14 straight wins. 7 fourth-quarter comebacks. A passer rating of 111.9 in the fourth-quarter. He is the best normal QB, and best two-minute QB. He has scored TD drives with 45 second left in the half, and added a field goal when there was 22 seconds left in the half. It's not an argument. Ranking: 1

Coach: I love Jim Caldwell, but the Colts butchered that Jets game, and he hasn't always shown a daring mold to go for it, something the reserved Dungy did alot. He has shown a shrewd eye to clock management, but trusting a rookie coach in never fun. Ranking: 5

Interesting Note: The last two teams to win 14 straight games at any point in the season did not win the Super Bowl (2007 Pats and 2004 Steelers). But the three before that all did (2003 Pats, 1984 49ers and 1972 Dolphins).

Rankings Overview

Offense
1.) IND
2.) SD
3.) NE
4.) BAL
5.) CIN
6.) NYJ

Defense
1.) CIN
2.) NYJ
3.) IND
4.) BAL
5.) SD
6.) NE

Quarterback
1.) Peyton Manning, IND
2.) Phillip Rivers, SD
3.) Tom Brady, NE
4.) Carson Palmer, CIN
5.) Joe Flacco, BAL
6.) Mark Sanchez, NYJ

Coach
1.) Bill Belichick, NE
2.) John Harbaugh, BAL
3.) Norv Turner, SD
4.) Marvin Lewis, CIN
5.) Jim Caldwell, IND
6.) Rex Ryan, NYJ

2009 NFL Playoff Primer - NFC

It's playoff time. This is the best time of the year, hockey and basketball in full swing, baseball far away so I don't have to gouge my eyes after witnessing yet another negative Astros headline, and the football playoffs to eat up like a sumo at an all-you-can-eat. Here is a team-by-team look at the playoffs, with rankings and comments for offense, defense, QB, coach, intangibles and extra-motivating factor. Teams are listed in seeding style.

6.) Philadelphia Eagles (11-5)

Offense: They are the definition of a big play offense. They rank 30th in 10-play drives, and second in scoring drives of 5 plays or less (NO is first). If they don't get the big play, they struggle to put up any points, as witnessed by last Sunday's game in Dallas. Having Jammal Jackson injured is huge, as centers are arguably the most important o-line position in terms of their effect on the line as a whole. The Eagles running game is surprisingly good in overall production, with 4.4 YPC. Leonard Weaver is a huge x-factor, as the Eagles are 6-1 in games where he gets 30 yards or more. He is the only true "clock-control" running back, and is a good receiver out of the back-field, something sorely missed with DeSean Jackson playing like a shell of himself. Donovan is very hit-or-miss these days, with 6 games with a passer rating over 100 and 4 with a rating less than 80. If he is on, then they can be scary, but it looks like that missing Jackson has really effected the line, and without protection, McNabb is very average now. Ranking: 5 out of 6

Defense: Their defense may be the most solely overrated unit in the playoffs this year. They are totally living by past reputation. Now, Sean McDermott has filled in admirably for the late great Jimmie Johnson, but to say that this Eagles defense is the same is just not true. They had a string of mediocre to bad offenses on their slate (Chicago, Washington twice, Atlanta, Oakland, Tampa) so that their overall stats look quite good. However, I look at two games. They gave up 514 yards to the Giants and 474 to the Cowboys. They are now playing those self-same Cowboys. Their defense forces turnovers and can get to the QB, but against the better teams, they have been unable to get good pressure on the QB, as witnessed by the games against the Giants and the Boys. Their run defense is stouter, but their pass-defense can be shredded if they don't get pressure up front. Ranking: 6

Quarterback: Donovan McNabb is now hit-or-miss much like the team in general. His accuracy is probably as good as it has ever been, but what is now different is that he doesn't really have the mobility to get away from pass rush anymore, not even to his level from last year. He was sacked 35 times, and was barely running. Early on in his career, he used to get Big Ben type of sacks, where he runs and runs away from pressure before inevitably getting caught. That doesn't happen anymore. He is a pocket passer. A good one, but a pocket passer. His playoff exprerience will help him, but it has not always been great experiences. Ranking: 3

Coach: Andy Reid, the embattled fatty. He is very underrated as a coach for his game-planning and his talent eye, but that stuff doesn't really help him anymore. Now it is mainly about game management, as every team left is good enough. His team has the talent, talent that he has helped to bring in, but it is now up to him. His past work has been good but not great. Amazingly, the time management that has killed him in the regular season has never really been a problem in the playoffs. Either way, his use of timeouts and challenges like they are kleenex is scary. No Eagles fan is totally comfortable with him leading the team. Ranking: 5

Interesting Note: The Eagles under the Andy Reid/Donovan McNabb regime have never lost their opening playoff game in a season, going 7-0 in thier first game. What may be a caveat in that streak is that they have only been the away team once, last year where they beat Tarvaris Jackson and the Vikes.

5.) Green Bay Packers (11-5)

Offense: They have really become better in pas protection, the thing that would totally kill their chances earlier in the year. Rodger was sacked only 8 times in the last 7 games. The improvement is split between Mart Tauscher and Chad Clifton finally healthily manning the tackle positions, and Rodgers just getting rid of the ball sooner. Ryan Grant had a nice bounce back year, turning what was a mess into a huge second half. However, let's look behind the numbers. Here are their offensive points and yard production against teams that were over .500: 24-311, 23-424, 26-358, 17-283, 27-350, 36-436. Those are good but not great numbers. Some of those games are impressive (the 36 against PIT, the 424 yards in Minnesota), but overall, far below their numbers in games against teams that are under .500. Ryan Grant never reached 100 yards (and only 90 once) against teams over .500. Aaron Rodgers only put up a passer rating over 100 twice against those winning teams. The Packers still struggle against premier teams, but they are the new-Pats in their way of dominating weaker teams to pad their overall stats. They are paper tigers on offense, but leopoards in real life. Ranking: 4

Defense: This is where they are real tigers. All year long, only three teams have gotten more than 350 yards against. That is the second best total in the league (the next closest had 5 such games). Only one crossed the 400 yard mark (the Steelers in that wild game). Really, since their Week 5 bye, only the Vikings and Steelers have crossed the 300 yard mark. Even after losing Al Harris and Aaron Kampman, their defense has kept on swimming at a great pace. Although their 31 sacks are in the bottom half, their total pressures are 8th in the league. They force turnovers at a league-leading rate of 2.5 a game, and are dangerous at any time. Their run defense is stout as well, with Cody Pickett returning with a strong come-back year. Really, in every single way, this is one of the best defenses in the NFL, and the best in the NFC. Period. Ranking: 1

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers had a huge year. Huge. Brett Favre NEVER threw for that many yards. His 30-7 td/int ratio is amazing. He is one of the up-and-coming QBs in the league. However, Aaron seems a bit over-hyped. Sure, his numbers are spectacular, but in what may be the most playoff-like atmosphere he faced this year at home against Baltimore, he was very average. He was great against the Steelers, but that game featured as much defense as the Phoenix Suns. I'm not saying he is not good, he is. But, as Bill Parcells might say, "let's put the anointing oils away". Ranking: 4

Coach: I sang Mike McCarthy's praises earlier this year, and nothing has changed over the past half season. He is a top-flight head coach, with a great pedigree. He has playoff experience, and performed admirably in those playoffs. He rarely makes game managment mistakes, and calls that offense very well, adjusting to the specific strengths of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers run a scheme that is not to complex (deep out-posts, slants), but one that is masterfully called by McCarthy. Ranking: 3

Interesting Note: Guess what NFL team leads the league in rush defense? No, its not the usual suspects Vikings and Ravens. No, it is the Packers.

4.) Arizona Cardinals (10-6)

Offense: This is a hard one. At their best, they are as unstoppable as any team in the NFL. Kurt Warner has been amazing in the playoffs, putting up stats at a rate no one has ever done. He literraly ties his shoes, goes through his passing tree and puts on autopilot for 350 yards. Boldin's injury hurts, but there are two extra factors here. Warner throws to the RBs more, with both Wells and Hightower and the running-back flex specialist LaRod Stephens-Howling. Secondly, the running game has transformed. They are now a legitimate dual threat. Beanie Wells was excellent, and Tim Hightower is now actually good, instead of an overhyped schmuck like last year. The offensive line has its bad days, but they seem to be the only team to really be able to turn the switch off and on. When its on, they are a Ferrari, and it seems to be on during the playoffs. There is no point of me putting up regular season stats, I'll just tell you this, last postseason, they scored 30-33-32 points. Fitzgerald went off to the tune of 35 rec 563 yards and 7 tds. He probably won't come close to that, but Beanie and the running game should make up for the difference. Ranking: 2

Defense: The defense, much like the offense, is hit or miss. However, unlike the offense, it hits, alot. They gave up yards alot, but forced turnovers throughout they year, however they really started to gel at the end of the year. They have held five of their last six opponents to 350 yards or less. They forced multiple turnovers in each of the last five games. They were third in the NFL in sacks, and eighth in takeaways. They give up yards, but alot of that has to do with them losing TOP. Their mainstream rate stats are good, being 12th in YPC allowed and 9th in YPA allowed. Those are the numbers that really matter, and they are one of the few teams around the top-10 in both. Ranking: 3

Quarterback: Kurt Warner maybe gray, may like to drink tea and do puzzles, but he is still one of the best performers in postseason history. He has the highest yards-per-game and td-per-game averages in NFL history. He has the highest three single-game Super Bowl passing yards performances, as well as the two highest single-postseason passing yardage performances (1999 and 2009). He has been great. If he has one weakness, it is that he has thrown two pick-sixes in his last two Super Bowls, but we won't have to worry about that for a while. Ranking: 1

Coach: Ken Whisenhunt, much like McCarthy, is one of the rising coaches in the game. I listed him fourth in my coach ranking, and he is first in the NFC playoff ranking. His game management is flawless, always a great conservator of timeouts, and calling the game brilliantly. His game-planning, now that he is the play-caller, has been excellent, mixing in the run exponentially better than last year. Also, he had the sense to get rid of Clacny Pendergast, which has similarily helped that defense. Ranking: 1

Interesting Note: This is the first back-to-back division titles for the Cards in over 50 years.

3.) Dallas Cowboys (11-5)

Offense: Paper Tigers. They can run well. They can throw well. But neither is great. Neither is game-changing. When mixed right, they are pretty dominant, but it is very questionable as to whether they can win the game themselves. They only scored 22.5 ppg (14th in the league). They gain yardage, but it does not translate to points, which goes very well with a team that can throw and run, but do neither at an all-pro level. Their offensive line is not great at run-blocking, by is amazing at a delay draw, which they run all the time and to amazing success. Those three running backs can all get yards between the 20's, but turn a bit softer in the red zone. Their red-zone offense is ranked 20th in the NFL, and that will have to improve as the time goes along. Their o-line has gotten a big boost from Dave Free, who has filled in brilliantly at LG. Flozzell is still a penalty machine, and Andre Gurode is still schizophrenic, but their o-line has been excellent in pass protection. Romo was only sacked 9 times in the last 10 games, and some of those were coverage sacks. Why are there coverage sacks? Becuase other than Miles Austin no one can consistently get free. Jason Witten does, but those are just short routes. He seems to have lost the ability to run deep, as his YPCatch was its lowest since 2004. Overall, the offense sputters to score, and that is what matters at the end of the day. Ranking: 6

Defense: Unlike their offense, their defense is top-notch. Credit Wade Phillips, who is now essentially the defensive coordinator of that team as well. Here is just a stunning stat, they have not given up more than 347 yards since week..... TWO. Yes, their defense has been playing at a great level for over four months now. You can still pass on them, but that allows their great pass rush to get after the QB. Jay Ratliff is on a tear, and he is allowing Spears, Olshansky and even Ware to get added pressure. Their run defense is the second-best in the NFL. There has been a total role-reversal in the last two years for the Cowboys. Now, they are a purely defensive team. Ranking: 1

Quarterback: Tony Romo still has not won in the playoffs. Sure, it is grasping for straws, but when every other QB in the NFC (except for Rodgers, whose stats are better than Romo in every single way) has reached at least the title game, with three reaching Super Bowls, and two winning Super Bowls, it is hard to be too confdent in him. His stats have been good, but in games where Miles Austin is taken away from him (San Diego, Green Bay), he turns into old Romo. Ranking: 5

Coach: Wade Phillips is underrated now. He is still a guy who has made some blunderous decisions, and never won a playoff game, but his job this year has been great. He held together what is still a volatile locker-room, and led that defense perfectly. That defense is great, and Wade is reasons 1 through 99 for why that defense is among the league's best. Ranking: 4

Interesting Note: That defe
nsive stat is amazing. What is more amazing, the last week they scored over 24 points? Week....... 8, on November 1st. That offense is average at best.

2.) Minnesota Vikings (12-4)

Offense: Let's all throw out that Week 17 performance. The Giants were mentally in Cabo. They are lucky the get a home game in round two, where they are 8-0, becuase they are still losers of three straight road games. In those road games, they put up 13 and 7 points, before "exploding" for 30, which is not a huge number for this team. The key here is Peterson. We saw, when Peterson when through his first malaise of his career (4 straight games under 100 yards, 6 straight under 4.5 YPC), Favre was not really able to carry that team by himself. The o-line has really suffered recently, alot to do with a mysterious drop in play from Bryant McKinnie. He seemed to recover in the Bears game, but he is still a question mark. This team is Jekyll at home, but Hyde on the road, and since they have to play one road game, most likely, I'm guessing we see Hyde at some point. Ranking: 3

Defense: EJ Henderson's injury has killed this team. Just killed them. They no longer stuff the run at a historic pace. They still finished the year ranked second against the run, but are only eleventh against the run since the Henderson injury. Pat Williams has also been slightly knicked up, and it seems that one half of the Williams wall at less than full makes the wall far less supple. The secondary is still problematic. Antoine Winfield returned brillaintly against the Bengals, but has since been beat badly. Steve Smith and then Devin Aromashadu pasted them. Allowing 100 to Steve Smith is fine. It happens. But to devin Aromashadu? That is reprehensible. Teams are no longer throwing for 300, but the mid 250's is being hit often, by quarterbacks of the Matt Moore, Jay Cutler ilk (can't believe those two are of the same ilk, btw). Their safeties have not been able to stop the big play, as they rank 10th in giving up 20+ yard pass plays. Some of that has to do with Winfeild's absence, but even since, they have given up big plays. Their defense was great against the Giants, but that should not act as a total bandage for that gushing scab that was their defensive performance against the Bears and their previosuly insane asylum-ed QB Cutler. Ranking: 5

Quarterback: Brett Favre's luster has certainly worn off with those performances, until, again, Week 17. Throwing out Week 17, he was average against the Bears, but that Arizona-Cincy-Carolina triad was ugly. He has not been the greatest playoff QB recently. He threw the pick against the Giants in '07, had a 4-int game in '04, threw that duck in OT against the '03, was totally outplayed by Vick in '02 and had a 6-int horror show in '01 against the Rams. That is the opposite of pedigree. Ranking: 6

Coach: What other coach would personally go to pick-up a player at the airport? The same one that would lose an argument to the same QB? Brad Childress is a puppet to Favre. Favre controls the strings in that operation. Add that to the fact that Childress wastes timeouts that makes Andy Reid look like he's protecting them in a safe-box, and there is no way I can trust him. Ranking: 6

Interesting Note: Visanthe Shianco led the league in REC per TDs, with 11 tds in only 55 catches. His 19 tds in the last two years is the most of any TE.

1.) New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Offense: Let's remember that this team, for a 12 week stretch, played offense that was only matched by the Greatest Show on Turf (they did not run it up like the '07 Pats). They were unstoppable. The last three weeks lost some luster, but I trust Drew Brees to be able to pick it up again. With Lance Moore and Reggie Bush finally back healthy, they have their full stable of weapons. If there is a cause for concern, it is that Jermon Bushrod, a guy who was a replacement LT for Jammal Brown, may have finally reached the point where he is over-his-head. Bushrod gave up 1 sack in their 12 game winning streak, and gave up 4 in the three losses. DeMarcus Ware used him as his personal cabana boy. There is thought that the reason Brees didn't even take one snap is because Payton was scared of subjecting Brees to the Bushrod-Peppers battle. That was not a vote of confidence, but with that quick-strike offense, and Brees's ability to get the ball out of his hands, I'm sure Payton can game-plan around it. Their running game stagnated a bit late, but alot of that had to do with accumulating injuries. Thier RB's trio is finally healthy, and if that run game returns to what it was as recently as the early portion of the Tampa game, than they should have the balance that made them unstoppable. Ranking: 1

Defense: Their defense had the same late-season malaise, but it is mainly shown on turnovers. Causing turnovers is not luck. There are teams that excel at it, and the Saints did, forcing 37 in their first 13 games, by far leading the league. That run came to a grounding halt, but again, there are reasons why. Injuries befell the secondary, and with the first seed all-but locked up, Payton and Williams devised a rotation scheme to give all thier DBs time, while resting them all. Jabari Greer, their top-corner, is finally back healthy. They were fourth against the pass with Greer in there, and 25th with him out. Darren Sharper reportedly wasa knicked up, but should be healthy. The thing here is that they simply played vanilla schemes the last four weeks, rarely sending more than four or mixing up coverages like they did so masterfully in the New England game. It is ridiculous to expect them to return to their peak on defense, but it is also not fair to assume that they cannot get any better. Ranking: 4

Quarterback: Drew Brees was the best statistical QB in the NFL this year. Period. It is not debatable. He probably wasn't the most valuable, as Manning had less to work with, and put up similar numbers, but as simply a guy to put up points and numbers, no one was better. Setting the NFL record for completion percentage was a nice coda to his best season yet. His postseason performances have been interesting, with a bad one in San Diego and two good games agains the Eagles and Bears in 2006. His team fumbled all around him, but he was a warrior in that 2006 NFC Title Game. His mastery of the position is simply unquestioned, but is average postseason drops him below Kurt. Ranking: 2

Coach: Sean Payton may have lost his luster, but there is no better game-planner, and no person who uses the vast multiple array of players at his and his QB's disposal. It seems like Drew Brees and Sean Payton are one in the same, one just controlling the other. His time management is not that great, as witnessed by the butchering of that potential game-tying drive against Dallas, but it is not enough to offset his game-planning. Ranking: 2

Interesting Note: The 13 games with over 350 yards that the Saints put up were the second highest total in NFL history, only behind the 2000 Rams who did it 14 times each.

Rankings Overview

Offense Ranking:
1.) NO
2.) ARZ
3.) MIN
4.) GB
5.) PHI
6.) DAL

Defense Ranking:
1.) GB
2.) DAL
3.) ARZ
4.) NO
5.) MIN
6.) PHI

QB Ranking:
1.) Kurt Warner, ARZ
2.) Drew Brees, NO
3.) Donovan McNabb, PHI
4.) Aaron Rodgers, GB
5.) Tony Romo, DAL
6.) Brett Favre, MIN

Coach Ranking:
1.) Ken Whisenhunt, ARZ
2.) Sean Payton, NO
3.) Mike McCarthy, GB
4.) Wade Phillips, DAL
5.) Andy Reid, PHI
6.) Brad Childress, MIN

AFC Coming Later Today

2009 NFL Season in Review

No need for power rankings, now that roughly 60% of the teams have no football left. The other teams get to play a crafty little tournament that will essentially make this whole "power ranking" charade pointless. Number one will be decided, unquestionably, in five weeks. I can't wait, unless it is those Chargers, in which case I am actively shopping for a rock to lay under. Anyway, here are my awards for the 2009 NFL Season - regular season version.

2009 Regular Season Champions: The Indianapolis Colts

They have been by far the most news-worthy team, whether it be the 4th and 2 debate and then the F-10 tornado that was unearthed from Bill Polian's decision to rest people. With these two things, both that negatively effected the team, people forgot just how good they were. They beat everyone they wanted to beat. They won game after game, staying calm and collected in the clutch and in the fourth-quarters. Contrast that to the 2009 Paper Champions, the Pats, who played like nuetered dobermans in fourth quarters. The Colts had a top offense, a top defense and finally a special teams that was "special" (or at least compared to the special teams they put up before). They were the best team in the regular season in every way.

2009 MVP: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis

Yeah, it's that obvious. It's that simple. He was 14-0 when he played a full game. He set personal bests for completion percentage, and had overall the second best year statistically of his career. He was brilliant in the fourth-quarter of games. He lead touchdown drives at the most opportune times, playing possum until it was time to pounce. He won a game when the Colts held the ball for less than 15 minutes. He won two seperate games when they were trailing by 17 points, to New England and at Houston, teams that were desperate, needing wins to get in, or get positioning. He was the best. Also, let's remember that he had two new targets to throw to, and lost Anthony Gonzalez on the first offensive drive of the SEASON. There was arguably no better overall year for Manning.

2009 Coach of the Year: Marvin Lewis

So, this team has missed the playoffs three straight years, and were 4-11-1 last year. What did he do this season: sweep Baltimore and Pittsburgh (the teams that met in the Title Game las year), go the Lambeau and beat the Packers, and go to San Diego at their peak, and play point-for-point until that Caldwell fuble. He also had to lead this team over the dual tragedies of Mike Zimmer's wife and Chris Henry. This team finally became a defense, and that is credit to Marvin, whose defense improved after losing at-the-time sack leader Antwan Odom. Great year overall, by a guy who has finally comeback from the devastating Palmer injury in 2005.

2009 Rookie of the Year: Brian Orakpo, DE, Washington

Yup. Shocker. He got no publicity, with the dual white LB's killing on Green Bay and Houston, and Mark Sanchez, Stafford, Moreno and even Harvin. Harvin lost steam after that concussion, but Orakpo stayed steady all year, even when he lost his meal-ticket Albert Haynesworth. It was a year that was understandably suppressed by the Jim Zorn fiasco, featuring Sherm "B-7, no damnit, you don't have a bingo" Lewis. He's a stud. Finally, Texas has produced one (Yes, I'm looking at you, Michael Huff).

2009 Game of the Year: New England 34, Indianapolis 35

It was the most talked-about game of the year, and one that became as exciting as any game in recent memory. It was the untimate, quintessential water-cooler game. Everyone had something to talk about afterwards. Was Belichick smart? Was Belichick dumb? Does the math support this? Why are we quoting economics analyses on going-for-it on 4th down? Did the Colts deserve to win? What will happen to the Pats? In the end all questions were answered. Belichick was smart and dumb (depending on how you look at it). Let's leave economics out of football. Yes, the Colts deserved to win, as seen by their 14 straight wins before and after. The Pats were never the same. It was a game that the Colts springboarded themselves into a zone where they were just unbeatable. The Patriots were haunted by it, losing two of the next three, and never really threatening to break into that upper-echelon again. It was a game that, I will admit, I put off. I now have been burned twice, and have learned my lesson. Never turn off the lights on the Indianapolis Colts. Never. Also, expect levels of excitement and brilliance when the Colts and Pats match up, always.

2009 Moment of the Year: Saints Pummeling the Pats

Yeah, the moment is actually a game, but for what is probably still the most down-trodden economically fan-base in the NFL, it was a moment to savor. The Saints have still never fully recovered from Katrina, and had the all-time moment in 2006 when they re-opened the Superdome. However, this was it. This was New Orleans time in the spot-light. Undefeated at 11-0 against a top-tier franchise (whether they are a top-tier team is debatable), they cruised. It was the Greatest Show on Turf 2.0, with Sean Payton playing the more affable version of Mike Martz. It was NFL offense at its very best, with a crowd that was loud from the moment the pregame started, until every second of the clock drained on an emphatic Saints blowout.

2009 Goat of the Year: The Bills, Belichick and Polian

This is not because I hate him. I just think there was people who were more of a negative lightning rod than the Bills. Belichick's 4th-and-2 decision was stupid when it was made. It was more stupid when they failed to convert. Belichick decision unearthed a legion of Belichick hate, which made the most respected coach in history unbelievably questioned over an actual football decision. What takes the cake is that the Pats were never the same since that call, save for their monthly thrashing (Jacksonville). As for Polian, he was the man behind the decision. Fine, rest your starters in a blizzard in Buffalo. Don't rest them at home, or at least don't rest them after playing them enough to get a 5 point lead in the third quarter. It was not a good year for the Bills, whether Polian, Belichick or even Buffalo.

ALL-2009 Team

QB: Peyton Manning, Indianapolis

See above, in the MVP section.

RB: Chris Johnson, Tennessee

He ran for 2,000 yards, and set an NFL record with 2549 yards from scrimmage, breaking Marshall Faulk's NFL record. It didn't really help them get wins, since they were 0-6 with Johnson and Collins. However, there was no one as exciting as Chris Johnson. No one even close, other than Peyton. However, Peyton's excitement is more centered in a fine-art way.

WR1: Andre Johnson, Houston

He is an absolute beast. He is an udonis among mere worms, let alone normal human beings. He cuaght 100 balls. He led the NFL yards by about 150. He was the only reliable target for Matt Schaub, and without him, he would not have come close to the numbers he put up. He is a combination of Wes Welker and Randy Moss, a guy who can fly, go deep, and catch everything that is within an area-code of him.

WR2: Sidney Rice, Minnesota

Yeah, some love for those Vikings. He was a guy who entered the season as a bust, a guy seeping with talent. With Favre, he turned into a monster, catching deep balls, short balls and medium range. He contorted himself in every possible anatomical way to catch balls thrown to him. Since I feel Percy Harvin is overrated, and Bernard Berrian shouldn't even be "rated", so Sidney Rice's performance is even more amazing.

TE: Dallas Clark, Indianapolis

With Anthony Gonzalez out since early Week 1, and two unknowns taking over for him, Dallas Clark had to step up his production, and my God did he ever. With only one other great target for Manning to look for, teams tried to stop Clark. They stopped him to the tune of 100 catches, 1100 yards and 10 tds. Monster, Clark is just a monster.

LT: Ryan Clady, Denver
LG: Steve Hutchinson, Minnesota
C: Nick Mangold, New York
RG: Jahri Evans, New Orleans
RT: David Stewart, Tennessee

I know next to nothing about offensive line play. I know that some of these players are good, but I really can't truly judge offensive lineman in any substantive terms. If anything will kill my chances to be an NFL-head coach, my inability to know how to judge lineman will kill me.

LE: Dwight Freeney, Indianapolis

He had a monster year. It was probably his best year in his career, and when you consider that he had frequent hamstring problems throughout the year, his constant pressure makes it even more amazing.

RE: Jared Allen, Minnesota

He is an absolute beast. Sure, his stats outside the two Green Bay games aren't amazing, but those two games should be packaged and sent straight-away to Canton. The guy is just the best bull-rusher in the NFL.

NT: Jay Ratliff, Dallas

He is as important, if not more important, than DeMarcus Ware. His ability to constantly get into the backfield, and be double-teamed on blocks, allows all the other players around him to get better. The Dallas pressure scheme is completely dependent on his ability, and it has worked.

DT: Kevin Williams, Minnesota

At least one member of the Williams wall has to be here. One just has to.

OLB: LaMarr Woodley, Pittsburgh

He started off slowly, but became just a monster at the end of the year. 11.5 sacks in the last 11 games, and that coincided with Aaron Smith getting HURT. Just a monster. In my opinion, he was more effective than either DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison.

ILB: Patrick Willis, San Francisco

Nothing really to say here, but the guy just makes tackle after tackle.

OLB: Elvis Dumervil, Denver

He's essentially an edge, line-backer rusher, and he is the best at that in the NFL. 17 sacks. Pressures constantly. Even when the whole team was just falling apart at the seams, he was raising his game.

CB: Darrelle Revis, New York

Shut down top receiver after top receiver week after week. It started with him shutting down Andre Johnson and Randy Moss back-to-back. He completed the year with possibly forcing Chad to revert to "Johnson". THAT is a year.

CB: Charles Woodson, Green Bay

He had a monster year, with 9 ints, playing the type of corner he flashed in Oakland, and made him deserving of the 4th overall pick back in 1998.

FS: Darren Sharper, New Orleans

In a year that probably cemented his bronzing in the Hall-of-Fame, he set a record for INT-return yards, picking off nine passes returning three for touchdowns. He was the emotional and physical leader off the NFL's most attacking defense.

FS: Antione Bethea, Indianapolis

Pay this man, Bill Polian, pay this man. I'm going unconventional with two FS, mainly because there was no great SS this year, with Troy being hurt and Adrian Wilson being underwhelming. Antoine Bethea was amazing at limiting big plays, picking off timely passes, and really being the only constant in one of the league's best and most rotating defenses.


Well, there is the great Season-in-Review. I will come back with a breif playoff primer tomorrow, and picks on Friday.

I would just like to leave you with one playoff fact before you make picks: Before last year, the last time niether #1 seed made the Super Bowl was 1997.
98 - Broncos, 99 - Rams, 00 - Giants, 01 - Rams, 02 - Raiders, 03 - Pats, 04- Eagles, 05 - Seahawks, 06 - Bears, 07 - Pats. What is interesting is that there hasn't been a Super Bowl with both 1 seed (the last time that happened was 1993), but each year one 1 seed has made it, so most likely, Indianapolis or New Orleans make it.

Week 17 NFL Picks

Tough to make alot of these, becuase the "to rest or not to rest" becomes a real problem in the final weeks.

Indianapolis @ Buffalo (-8.5)

Vegas likes them to sit their players. I do to, with Manning playing two series, and then out. I think that Manning puts up at least 10 points, and the Painter Company puts up another 7. What people forget is that Buffalo is starting the immortal Brian Brohm, a guy who lost a job to Matt Flynn in Green Bay. That is the epitome of CFL-ready talent. I'm sorry, but I can't take a team starting Brohm as serious. This line is a joke.

Colts 17 Bills 13 (IND)


New Orleans @ Carolina (-7.5)

The Saints are starting Mark Brunell. In the words of GOB Bluth, "Come On!!". They will be the first one-seed EVER to enter the playoffs of a three game losing streak. That is an ignomanious label that the team that openly talked about playing their starters to go for 16-0 when they were 12-0 just needs. I would have thought that they would have wanted to play all-out, try to regain some of that momentum, some of the form that they showed against New England. The Cardinals did it last year, playing all-out locked into the 4 seed just to get some good vibes entering the playoffs, they came 7 yards away from winning the Super Bowl.

Saints 14 Panthers 27 (CAR)


Jacksonville @ Cleveland (-1)

Ok, is Cleveland really going to have a four-game winning streak. Jacksonville plays good in these meaningless games. Cleveland allowed Jamaal Charles to rush for 120. MoJo Drew is a Ferrari compared to Charles' Toyota Sequoia (I am 99.4% sure that that is spelled wrong). They would want to go out on a high-note.

Jaguars 24 Browns 17 (JAX)


Philadelphia @ Dallas (-3)

Call me a cynic. Call me a anti-Dallas basher. Call me a "I'm Jealous of Romo becuase He Bangs Hot Women" but I don't think Dallas is better than Philly. Dallas impressed me with their great performance against the Saints. Their o-line was great, their d-line, even better. Jay Ratliff, Marcus Spears and Igor Olshansky work wonders, sucking up blockers and still getting pressure. However, having said all that, their secondary can be beat. DeSean can beat it. There will be great symmetry in the Eagles winning this game, a win-and-your-division-champs game a year after thrashing the Boys in a win-and-you-are-a-wild-card game last year in Week 17. Why this was not flexed in is beyond me? The Eagles have just enough explosiveness to slow down that pass-rush, make the Cowboys try to play coverages which they are not too good at.

Eagles 31 Cowboys 24 (PHI)



Chicago (-3) @ Detroit

Uggh. What a game. Why did you give the sullen people of Detroit such a game to finish the year? Anyway, I spoke to two friends that are Bear fans, and both of them are quick to blame the o-line. Fine, the o-line sucks. But last year, in Denver, Cutler was still wild, throwing 18 interceptions. Then, my Broncos fan friend blamed the Defense for making Cutler force balls to play catch up. I'm gonna say it's mainly Cutler's fault. Cutler is like Favre (yeah, I know, the balls on me to say that). Give him a good defense, good line and good weapons, and the guy will be great, better than most in that situation. However, if one of those things go awry, he will turn into the "Screw it, I'm just throwing this ball up for grabs" Favre that roamed the land from 2004-2006.

Bears 24 Lions 13 (CHI)


New England @ Houston (-8)

I want New England to win. I would rather have them as the three-seed, which makes it impossible for the Colts to have to beat San Diego AND New England to win the Super Bowl. I think they will win, as well. I don't really believe the Belichick will rest people. For historical perspective, in 2006, the Pats were 11-4 and in a fight with the Colts for the 3 seed. Having to win to stay alive for the 3 seed, they played their guys full and won. That situation is similar, and in this case they don't even need the other team to lose. Win and they have the 3 seed. They play all out, and squeak it out. Andre Johnson will probably shred that team, but not enough.

Patriots 31 Texans 27 (NE)


Pittsburgh (-3) @ Miami

Just like when Patriots fans complained after going 11-5 with the easiest schedule ever created and missing the playoffs, Steeler fans are killing me right now. How do they complain when they lost to the Chiefs, Raiders and Browns. You lost your chance at the playoffs yourself. Patriots fans complained that 8-8 Chargers got in while they sat. Well, guess what, you lost to the Chagers 30-10. You had your chance, and you blew it. The Steelers, you had your chance, and you blew it.

Steelers 30 Dolphins 16 (PIT)


New York (n) @ Minnesota (-9)

The Vikings need this game, to have a hope at the two. In fact, a loss probably puts them at the four seed, which could lead to a first round game against the Packers. Now, as much as I want to see that matchup another time, I have a feeling that we will not see it. The Vikings are just better, and the Giants are missing both Jacobs and Bradshaw and are in full autopilot. It is over for them in the 2009 season. That's one prediction I would like to have back.

Giants 17 Vikings 23 (NYG)


San Francisco (-7.5) @ St. Louis

Steve Spagnuolo is foaming for the opportunity to get Ndamukong Suh. That is too much to pass up. Also, the 49ers are looking for their first non-losing season since 2002. That is a dual-incentive that makes this game pretty obvious to pick. Rams fans, don't worry, while you wait for Ndamukong Suh Draft Day, just pop in some "Greatest Show on Turf" tapes. Or, alternatively, just put the Cardinals playoff games in black-and-white and pretend Warner is still playing for the Rams. It could work.

49ers 21 Rams 10 (SF)


Atlanta (-2.5) @ Tampa Bay

Atlanta is looking for their first back-to-back winning season ever. The Buccaneers are trying to win three straight to end the year. These are interesting incentives. In this case, although I have semi-hated at Matt Ryan all year, he is easily better than any Josh that the Bucs can throw out there.

Falcons 27 Buccaneers 14 (ATL)


Green Bay @ Arizona (-2.5)

Tough game to predict. The Packers have really nothing to play for other than Wild-Card seeding. The Cardinals have, I guess, a two-seed to play for, however they will know if they are alive for that two seed, barring the Minnesota game. I think the Packers rest full-out, as they have nothing to play for, and may well play the Cardinals. Since I think the Vikings win, the Cardinals have no shot, so they probably rest up. Neither of these teams will want to play hard since they will likely play each other next week, so I will go with the team with what I think is a better backup (Leinart vs Matt Flynn).

Packers 14 Cardinals 20 (ARZ)


Kansas City @ Denver (-11.5)

Denver needs this game, but really, their track-record in winning must-win games is not good at all. They have done nothing to show that they win games they need to, blowing must-win games in 2006, 2008 and now in 2009. Kansas City is just awful, so the Broncos luck out there. If it were any other team (discounting the Rams), I would pick them, but either way, especially without the Broncos having Marshall, the Chiefs cover.

Chiefs 16 Broncos 24 (KC)


Baltimore (-10.5) @ Oakland

Oakland has been a real black hole for teams this year, as they have knocked off the Bengals and Eagles in Oakland. Both of those teams are a combined 21-9, so they can easily knock the Ravens off. However, the Ravens are a team that doesn't lose these games. They win the games they are supposed to win. They are supposed to win, and they need to win. They win.

Ravens 24 Raiders 10 (BAL)


Washington @ San Diego (-3.5)

The Chargers have nothing to play for, clinching that 2 seed. The Redskins have nothing to play for, because they never have anything to play for. I can't see Rivers playing too long, however Turner may want to keep the momentum of a 10 game winning streak entering the playoffs. This is one of the tougher games to pick, as even if Rivers sits, Volek and Naanee might be able to beat them anyway. I'll go with the Chargers, but I am not too happy about it.

Redskins 14 Chargers 20 (SD)


Tennessee (-4.5) @ Seattle

Seattle has packed it in, and Chris Johnson has records to play for. Enough said.

Titans 28 Seahawks 13 (TEN)


Cincinnati @ New York (a) (-10)

Vegas thinks the Jets will sit everyone as well. So, since I say the Pats win earlier, the Bengals have nothing to play for. They lay down, as they have alot of people nicked up, anticipating a rematch in one week. So, with all that said, the Jets get to luck in, but are they really good enough to cover this one, no. I say its a push.

Bengals 14 Jets 24 (push)


Enjoy the Games!