But in all seriousness, this is now twice in three years the Astros lost in teh Wild Card round, losing both of their two home games without even forcing teh third. In the year in between, they didn't make the playoffs with a huge September collapse that would've been more talked about had other teams not had worse collapses that same September. This was after losing the 2023 ALCS, and a chance to play a plucky but eminently beatable Diamondbacks team, getting blown out in Game 6-7 at home, this after losing Games 1-2 at home as well. If you include their loss at home in Game 2 of the 2023 ALDS (they won that series in four), we are up to a staggering nine straight home losses. It's debilitating, and it finally broke.
The last period of sustained success (1997-2005) ended in the same way. That stretch had the team make the playoffs six times, make an NLCS and make their first World Series. In year 10 (2006), they won 82 games and would have made the playoffs under the current six-team field. In year 12 (2008) they won 87 games inexplicably. This all made then owner Drayton McLane keep thinking the team was in good footing and closer than it was. Seriously, it was so apparently obvious to anyone with eyes that the Astros were aging, with a laughable farm system. It took three more years until the teardown finally began in 2011, the year that ironically McLane sold the team to Jim Crane.
He was supposed to be different. Hell, he was - he hired Jeff Luhnow in 2012, the tank continued but slowly but surely they made great draft picks, they scoured the international leagues like nobodies business, they had a near unparalleled pitcher development system that despite never having top pitching prospects, so many would develop (ironically, their most acclaimed pitching prospect in this era, Forrest Whitley, never made it). Of course, they stole signs and what-not - but other teams did and even there the Astros were on the leading edge. They then entered this run that at times seemed endless - even after Luhnow was fired and banned after the sign stealing scandal. Crane replaced him with James Click, an established SABR-mindful executive who led the team brilliantly to restock and make smart trades even as the minor leagues were thinning out.
Of course, this culminated in the 2022 World Series Title, when a mostly young Astors team, with just four rostered players as holdovers from 2017, won again. It was a triumph. My post right after on the 22 memories from that run had my #1 as "The Dynasty to Come". I made a compelling and sensible case at the time, but no one could have forecasted the biggest change - that Crane and Click would ahve a huge falling out, Click would be fired, and the fox woudl run the henhouse in the naem of Jeff Bagwell - obviously a legendary Astros but somehow who connived his way into silently running teh Astros (much like say Jack Easterby who did the same with the Texans). It's infuriating because it was all so obvious the second at the end of November (the same month that started with the WS win) Bagwell said publicly that "players win games, not computers." From that moment you draw the line to where we are today - from the awful Abreu signings, the random money thrown at bad relievers (Hader accepted), and so much more. The Astros lost their edge that second and Jim Crane better wake up.
The biggest mess of this is that Jim Crane oversaw a dynasty built using "computers", but also so much more - the scouting, the player development - all of it was first class. I get that he may have felt burned by Luhnow, but the weirdest part is then he went and hired Click who was very similar to Luhnow when it came to how they viewed the game - and by all accounts that worked, but something then broke. I liken it to Jim Irsay deciding one day to stop being in the background and let Bill Polian run the show and decideing to meddlesome and go away from "star wars numbers" and all that stuff - but Irsay was a whack-job. Crane by all accounts is not.
**Quick aside, one of the pieces of evidence, hilariously, to credit Crane with is he is one of the few white billionaire sports owners who is not openly a GOP and/or Trump supporter. In fact, Crane donated to Biden and Harris (granted, gave barely anything). He's not a democraft, like say the Eagles's Jeff Lurie, but he leans left and is by and large super smart**
I hate to blame Bagwell, but that link and change in Crane's outlook is so stark once Bagwell became his sideline sensei. Granted, Bagwell now is somewhat out of the picture (hopefully for good) so maybe there is time yet for Crane to learn the error of his ways. The team will need a serious rebuild, but if he starts that now in a smart way, they won't need to go all the way down like the 2011-2013 Astros did. There is one other problem though, I don't think that will ever get fixed as long as Crane is the owner - and it brings us back to our friend Jeff Luhnow.
Jim Crane has done a lot to excise Jeff Luhnow from Astros history except for one annoying thing that he has retained, which is that Jeff Luhnow put it in his head to never give long term on contracts. Granted, the math probably backs that up, but backs it up less when you have a bunch of superstars coming to free agency before they hit 30. Still, the most years Crane has given in a contract is six (Altuve). The 2019 Astros had Altuve, Springer, Correa, Bregman, Tucker, Yordan, Cole, Verlander. Now, Verlander was too old to go more than six years, and with Yordan lets see. But the heart of the issue is that piece is the middle. They let Springer walk after 2020, ostensibly to pay Correa, who they let walk after 2021, ostensibly to pay Bregman, who they let walk after 2023, ostensibly to pay Tucker, who they let walk after 2025. Now, some of these guys were bad investments for their new team (Correa, Tucker), but still it just sets a terrible tone for the franchise.
The irony isn't that thsi isn't a "Jim Crane is cheap" attack. Crane is not, especially by MLB Owner standards, cheap. When the team was tanking and spending $30m for teh team, he said he would spend when they got good. The Astros got good and he spent - the Astros have carried a Top-5/10 payroll for most of this entire run, including these last three years. Therein lies the problem - he is willing to spend but spend in the wrong ways - throwing money in short term at Abreu (both Jose and Brian!), at Christian Walker, at other long relievers. The money they "saved" by not extending the core young guys they've wasted on worse players.
Anyway, we sit at the precipice - they won the division again but as the worst division winner ever. They have the likely AL MVP who will still be great, but present another case for Crane to deal with money wise in a years time. They have little else in terms of young talent, but some interesting tradeable assets (Pena, Paredes, hell, even Hunter Brown). The next few yaers are dark - but I've lived through darkness before, and it will be very tough for this upcoming darkness to match 2011-2013. What I hope though is to get us out of the darkness we don't need to change owners, but every year and decision that goes by, I do worry that is more and more the case.
