(A1) Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) vs (N2) Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
Sun, 6:30 - FOX | KC -1.5
The Matchup: I'm going with my gut and going with the Eagles pulling this off. Granted, I picked against the Chiefs in the Championship Game, and picked the Texans to cover in the Divisional Round. That said, I'll go through my five key raesons shortly that at least have me believing I'm being rational. I'm not a Chiefs hater. I would actually be perfectly fine with the history of a threepeat, and have generally found them a fairly likable dynasty (well, at least compared to the last NFL one...). I didn't make a pick last year, but I did have the Chiefs going into that game. I did two years ago as well. I just think this is a better version of the Eagles that lost two years ago, playing a slightly worse version of that Chiefs team. Anyway, here are my five key reasons for picking the upset:
1.) The Eagles run game can take over in a way the Bills came close to doing: the Chiefs are generally good at not giving up huge explosives, but as the Bills shoed (and more scarily, the Texans showed the week earlier) you can run on them and get chunks. That is an awful weakness against the Eagles.
2.) The Eagles OL should be able to contain Chris Jones better than others to date. Granted, this is probably of the five, the most likely for me to jsut be wrong. Chris Jones in the playoffs the last three years is on all time heater. He can dominate this one, but the Eagles OL is great side to side, and at the very least can easily double team him with good trust that the other guys can go 1:1 and be successful.
3.) The return of Dallas Goedert. The Chiefs match up well with the Eagles two outside receivers. Though much like my view of Chris Jones, it shouldn't be a shock to anyone if Brown and Smith win their 1:1 matchups against McDuffie and Watson. But Goeder matches up super well against a Chiefs team that struggles against TEs.
4.) The Eagles can dominate the interior. The Chiefs moving Joe Thuney to LT has been a masterstroke, fixing the biggest issue of the Week 1-16 Chiefs. That said, moving Thuney outside has undoubtedly made the Chiefs interior protection lesser. Hasn't mattered against teams with so-so interior DL like the Texans and Bills (though even there, Ed Oliver had a great game). That is not as good a setup when needing to go against Jalen Carter.
5.) The Eagles won't be scared. The Eagles are a good sitautional football team. Definitely not as good as the Chiefs - but from a tush push that actually works, to a line that can give Jalen protection, to a secondary that can play well in teh red zone, the Eagles are to me the second best team situationally after the Chiefs. There's still a gap - and of course if this comes down to a last drive where Mahomes has to make something happen, of course that is a terrifying place to be in. But if the Eagles find themselves like the Bills did driving up 22-21, I trust them to get those yards and get the points.
The Pick: Eagles 27 Chiefs 23
