Tier I - The "Let's Start Scouting 2025 Guys" Trio
31.) Carolina Panthers = 3-11 (247-416)
30.) XXXXXXXXX
The Giants are just pitiful. Injuries haven't helped as it made the only good parts of the team worse, but this is just a broken team. I guess they'll let Daboll play out the string but it will be interesting who they go for next year. The Belichick acolytes routine has to stop. For the Panthers, this was a slight hiccup in the Bryce Young redemption tour. I still worry he just doesn't have the requisite ceiling to make it in the league. XXXXXXXXXXX.
Tier II - The "Just Mindlessly Bad Teams" Quinto
29.) Tennessee Titans = 3-11 (254-379)
28.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 3-11 (263-377)
27.) Cleveland Browns = 3-11 (239-356)
26.) XXXXXXXXX
25.) New England Patriots = 3-11 (238-337)
The Titans are just so bland. In theory their defense has some talent but injuries and low energy has ruined that as well. Levis is certainly not a long term answer. I'm hoping Brian Callahan can do better next year, but taht was a fairly uninspired choice to begin with. For the Jaguars, the rest of this season doesn't really matter. All that will is if they can get a new coach that can bring out the best in Trevor Lawrence (if there is a "best" worth bringing out, which is definitely a question at this point). For the Browns, I guess it is something similar also - from the sense of the reports that Watson will indeed be brought back as some sort of QB competition. They need to burn it all to the ground, even if I actually trust the Berry/Stefanski brain trust in that effort. I absolutely do not trust the owner though. XXXXXXXXX. For the Pats, Drake Maye remains promising but it is worrying how high variance that defense is week to week. They're great some weeks and then disasters being walked over like in that game. It may come down to coaching as I think there are still a lot of questions on Jerod Mayo.
Tier III - The "What Could've Been" Quadro
24.) New Orleans Saints = 5-9 (309-312)
23.) New York Jets = 4-10 (283-325)
22.) Dallas Cowboys = 6-8 (298-380)
21.) XXXXXXXXX
23.) New York Jets = 4-10 (283-325)
22.) Dallas Cowboys = 6-8 (298-380)
21.) XXXXXXXXX
It seems like the Saints are finally reaching the point where they realize that this needs a hard reset. I actually like some of the pieces in their recent draft, but the vestiges of the infamous 2017 draft are on the 17th hole. It will take a year or two to get out of cap hell, but it seems they're ready to start that effort. For the Jets, it's funny that Rodgers has sneakily been fairly good these last few weeks, just enough time to trick Woody Johnson and others to giving him 2025 to see what a 42 year old can do. For the Cowboys, their decent play post Dak injury is inspired but also a bit fruitless. They need a hard reset - they need to figure a lot out (starting with teh coach), but much like my Rodgers comment on the Jets, I worry if this is enough success under tough circumstances to somehow get McCarthy another year.
Tier IV - The "Do We Really Have to Care About Them?" Trio
20.) Indianapolis Colts = 6-8 (280-329)
19.) Cincinnati Bengals = 6-8 (399-387)
18.) Miami Dolphins = 6-8 (276-312)
The Chargers terrible loss means that we have to care about these teams again. Very likely none make the playoffs, but since they're still alive... The Colts realistically could have been way more alive, but as someone who is trying to hold onto the last 10% of their Colts fandom, I'm happy they were exposed. They need to clean house - Richardson included at this point. On the Bengals, I find the discourse around them so weird in one specific way: People are acting like Burrow's season is unprecedented and such a shame. It is a shame, but the comparison is staring us in the face: the 2014-2016 Saints, that went 7-9 three straight years despite prime Drew Brees. Burrow better hope a 2017 Saints-like draft is in the Bengals future. For the Dolphins, my interesting area to watch is does McDaniel have any counter-coutner-punch. His offense, to some degree, is just figured out at this point. The explosives are gone. Something has to change here.
Tier V - The "Weirdness Out West" Quinto
17.) Seattle Seahawks = 8-6 (315-313)
16.) Los Angeles Chargers = 8-6 (294-247)
15.) San Francisco 49ers = 6-8 (314-320)
14.) Arizona Cardinals = 7-7 (314-306)
13.) Los Angeles Rams = 8-6 (310-338)
14.) Arizona Cardinals = 7-7 (314-306)
13.) Los Angeles Rams = 8-6 (310-338)
I'm tickled that the order for these five teams have little to no correlation between their record or their point differential. The Seahawks are in last because now we have uncertainty around their highest relative strength in their passing game. Their defense is starting to come back to earth after a super strong middle of the season. The Chargers offense has way too low a ceiling on it, even if their defense remains strong. Granted, they were far from strong that last game, so will be important to see if that's an abberation. For the 49ers, it is super unlikely they win the division but games like that show they probably still are the most talented team in the division. The Cardinals have too high a variance, and a tough path to get there, but oddly I almost feel the strongest about theri future. I'm very much a Jonathan Gannon believer. Finally in the Rams, we have the team I think will win that division. Stafford to Nukua / Kupp is too good right now. Their defense is getting just enough pressure to keep their back seven from being fully exposed.
Tier VI - The "High Variance Pretenders" Trio
12.) Houston Texans = 9-5 (328-300)
11.) Washington Commanders = 9-5 (396-315)
11.) Washington Commanders = 9-5 (396-315)
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 8-6 (403-326)
I don't think any of these teams will be playing on Championship Sunday, but all three could absolutely pull off first round upsets. Granted, the Texans and Buccaneers if they make it would likely be at home so it may not even be that much of an upset. The Texans pass rush has come back in force with Anderson back, and the defense as a whole is playing like a top-8 unit again. For the Commanders, the offense hasn't been super explosive in a bit, but that was the closest they've come in a while. The Buccaneers are a plain good team that has beat up on a paper soft schedule for a while now. Still, they survived the period without Evans, and the OL is giving Baker time. That's really all they need to be super spicy.
Tier VII - The "High Floor Pretenders" Duo
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 10-4 (336-265)
8.) Denver Broncos = 9-5 (336-247)
Same script at the top where I can't imagine either playing on Championship Sunday, but if we go with the "defense travels" mantra, I guess these two I have slightly higher hopes for. The Steelers better not miss TJ Watt for too long, but that defense still to me is a top unit. The Eagles grinded them but most teams won't be able to on demand pull of 10-15 play drives like that. The Broncos survived a rare Bo Nix disaster because their defensive playmakers remain so strong. That will travel. Teams can attack the non-Surtain corner a bit too easily that again a better team than the Colts can make hay, but they have the pass rush to limit the chances of that.
Tier VIII - The "High Ceiling Contenders" Duo
7.) Green Bay Packers = 10-4 (379-287)
6.) Baltimore Ravens = 9-5 (418-332)
The Packers are becoming a trendy Super Bowl pick now that Jordan Love has for the second straight year been brilliant down the stretch. I guess it's more sustainable this year because the defense is very good. I believe all of that. My biggest risk I see actually is the OL making Jordan have to create too much, He can be great at that, but also where we've seen his worst moments. For the Ravens, the defensive improvements remain real and apparent from early in the season. Whether they will remain is another story. This upcoming game will be a great test. They should throttle the Steelers. Should.
Tier IX - The "They're Just Good, Man" Uno
5.) XXXXXXX
Tier X - The "Still The Top?" Quadro
4.) Kansas City Chiefs = 13-1 (329-259)
3.) Buffalo Bills = 11-3 (445-310)
2.) Detroit Lions = 12-2 (459-282)
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 12-2 (369-247)
2.) Detroit Lions = 12-2 (459-282)
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 12-2 (369-247)
The Chiefs are easily the worst 13-1 team I've ever seen. If I were them, I definitely do not play Mahomes this weekend against teh Texans and hope your defense can win the day. If they lose, then fine because they have a cushion now. I so worry about them rushing Mahomes back and him re-injuring himself against The Texans pass rush. The Bills defense has been awful two straight games, but also a lot of that is the Rams and Lions (two very good offenses) converting a bunch of 3rd and Longs. From being a devoted DVOA guy over the years, I've learned that teams with that profile - great on 1st and 2nd down, poor on 3rd, will often see that positively regress. They have to be hoping for that. The Lions have to be hoping for just any defenders at this point. Luckily for them they are the team best positioned to win three playoff games 38-35, but it is just tragic how this amazing season has been impacted by injuries. Finally the Eagles. I get that one game does not mean their passing game is solved, but realistically they don't need that. They need their defense to remain a Top-3 unit, the running game to play great, and grind out three 27-17 type wins. This team can absolutely do that.
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (3-11) @ Las Vegas Raiders (X-X) (4:25 - CBS)
-15.) Tennessee Titans (3-11) @ Indianapolis Colts (6-8) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) New York Giants (2-12) @ Atlanta Falcons (X-X) (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Cleveland Browns (3-11) @ Cincinnati Bengals (6-8) (1:00 - FOX)
12.) New England Patriots (3-11) @ Buffalo Bills (11-3) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) New Orleans Saints (5-9) @ Green Bay Packers (X-X) (MNF - ESPN)
10.) Arizona Cardinals (7-7) @ Carolina Panthers (4-10) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Los Angeles Rams (8-6) @ New York Jets (4-10) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Detroit Lions (12-2) @ Chicago Bears (X-X) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Los Angeles Rams (8-6) @ New York Jets (4-10) (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Detroit Lions (12-2) @ Chicago Bears (X-X) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (6-8) (SNF - NBC)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (6-8) @ Miami Dolphins (6-8) (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Denver Broncos (9-5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) (TNF - Prime)
4.) Minnesota Vikings (X-X) @ Seattle Seahawks (X-X) (4:05 - FOX)
6.) San Francisco 49ers (6-8) @ Miami Dolphins (6-8) (4:25 - CBS)
5.) Denver Broncos (9-5) @ Los Angeles Chargers (8-6) (TNF - Prime)
4.) Minnesota Vikings (X-X) @ Seattle Seahawks (X-X) (4:05 - FOX)
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) @ Washington Commanders (9-5) (1:00 - FOX)
2.) Houston Texans (9-5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (13-1) (Sat, 1:00 - NBC)
1.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-4) @ Baltimore Ravens (9-5) (Sat, 4:30 - FOX)
