Last year we saw a 16 beat a 1, a 15 seed reach the Sweet 16 (Princeton, of all teams). We saw a Final 4 with a 5 v 9 and a 5 v 4. The tournament had a ridiculous start - there was umpteen "This is March!" type moments. Legendary stuff. It all ended super anticlimactically, with one of weaker Middle Weekends, and while we had a classic in one Semifinal, UCONNs two wins on the final weekend were blowouts. But that is the weird dichotomy of March Madness. We get over-obsessed with dram and upsets in the first weekend, and rue the price it pays at the end. This year, so far we potentially have the opposite - and it sets up for maybe one of teh best last two weekends in a while.
It really is a choice of one or the other. 2011 was a tournament much like last year, with ridiculous upsets early on (Butler beating Pitt, an 11 v 10 Sweet 16 game, etc., etc.,) but at the end we were left with a 11/8/4/3 in the Final-4 and one of the most dreadful games we've seen. Rarely do we get a year that has the right combination of upsets and great teams pushing through. 2005 was one of them, a year I've written about a lot, that had memorable buzzer beaters and OT games and upsets and the like, and we ended up with #1 seed UNC beating #1 seed Illinois in a super well played final.
2016 was something like this as well, with a bunch of upsets on top teams but ending with a #2 seed Villanova team beating a #1 seed UNC team in another classic final. 2024 probably can't match 2005 or 2016 anymore - just too many upsets for that. But we could be in store for a great finish. There are some great teams left, be it Purdue trying to pull a 2019 Virginia and reclaim glory after last year's disaster, to UCONN who is playing with a 2007 Florida like swagger right now (last team to go back-to-back). The other one seeds are still around. All four two seeds are still aroudn. Great games can still be had.
I'm probably being overly pessimistic about the prospect of this tournament. Yes, that first weekend wasn't graet. I'm sure there have been worse, and we did get a few thrilling games, be it Houston edging Texas A&M, or Creighton holding off Oregon. But even those few great games with OTs and classic endings and the like, generally ended with the higher seed favorite winning. It gives a veneer of non-competitiveness. But in reality, maybe it is setting us up for one of the great Middle Weekends in recent memory.
Truly all these games stack up really nicely. All four #1 seeds have a potential to be tested here. All four #2 seeds do as well. WE almost certainly will get some upsets here. We almost certainly will have something that makes us not get four #1 v #2 Elite Eight games (the closest in recent memory was in 2007 with three #1 v #2 Elight Eight games). We could be in store for something great, and the prospects of that are so much higher because of the very rightfully called average to below average first weekend. Don't overrate early drama for late excellence in teh tournament. Cinderella's are fun, but seeing top teams play each other in tight, close, dramatic games are even better.
