If you could dream up a Stanley Cup Final in a lab, it probably looks a lot like this one. The two-time defending Champs going for a threepeat, something that hasn't happened in hockey in nearly 40 years, last done by one of the all-time great teams (the 1980's Islanders - they won 4 in a row). Their opponent: the consensus best team in the league that has been knocking down the door for a while, finally breaking through their old ceiling to a 2nd round loss, and doing so by blazing to the Final with a 12-2 playoff record.
The best team vs. the dynasty. The first run for one group of stars that were carefully, perfectly and smartly built, against a potential last run for another group built very much the same way. It is hard to better position the final. If anything, the only one in recent memory that comes close was at the very start of this Tampa run, when in 2015 a far younger version of the same Tampa group went up against the Blackhawks dynasty. This is that - with the added bonus of a potential threepeat.
It is so easy to draw the comparisons in a sense - the offensive stars of MacKinnon, Landeskog, Rantanen, against those of Kucherov, Stamkos, Point (assumign he returns, which seems likely). The brilliance of Cale Makar, against the steady, more rugged, brilliance of Victor Hedman. The one area that there is no real comparison is that of Darcy Keumper vs. Andrey Vasilevskiy - but no worries we can look around that for a second. But instead of the matchup, let's just focus on teh two teams in isolation for a minute. As what makes this an incredible potential matchup is the fact that it is these two teams - competing against each other.
The Avalanche had one of the worst seasons in the cap-era in 2016-17. That was a random outlier - they were merely below average the couple years prior, and had some well regarded youngsters (including MacKinnon and Landeskog already there at that point). But nevertheless, they were dreadful - but turned it around almost instantly. They shocked their way to the playoffs in 2017-18, picking up Cale Makar in the draft the year prior. In those playoffs, they lost to President's Trophy winners Nashville in six games.
It has been all up since then - another playoff berth in '18-'19, and a 1st round upset of Calgary before losing in San Jose in 7 games, was then followed by the first year of the real Colorado 'breakout'. In each of the 2019-20 and 2020-21 seasons, the Avalanche were the best team in the Western Conference. They were the best that first year, before losing in seven games to Dallas in the bubble. They were more clearly the best the following year, before losing to the Knights in six games - again in the second round.
The Avalanche were undoubtedly great, but were undoubtedly underperforming in the playoffs. It was weird things - like getting overrun randomly by the Knights after taking a 2-0 lead, or giving up a hat trick to the likes of Denis Gurianov in Game 7 against Dallas. It was inexplicable, if only because it was so clearly obvious how good they were. A story that so easily could have been written about the team they are about to face - or the Capitals before them (or the Blues as well).
This year they were again the best team in the West. They too their prior playoff misery and tossed it aside as easily as they have their opponents to date. Yes, they got a bit lucky with Nashville losing their starting goalie in game 82 of the regular season, and then St. Louis losing their starting goalie during the season, and of course the fact that Edmonton didn't lose their starting goalie, but more the fact he was Mike Smith. But really it was more of just luck balancing out.
On the other side we have Tampa. If anything, their reputation as playoff chokers prior to their two straight Cups is well overstated. As I wrote about a few weeks ago when they swept Florida, and then last year when they won their 2nd Cup, the Lihgtning's list of accomplishments the five years prior to their cups is the stuff of legend: a trip to the Cup Finals (2015), two other times losing in Game 7 of the Conference Finals (2016, 2018), the best regular season in teh post-lockout era (2019), a President's Trophy (2019), another time leading the East in points (2018), and plyers that won a Hart Trophy (Kucherov), Norris (Hedman) and Vezina (Vasilevskiy). They were great. Then they got their crown.
But while I think it's unfair to just pinpoint the Lightning of two years to not look at the larger picture, let's do that for a secod. Because I think wether they win or lose, they are such a worthy team to go after what the 1980s Islanders did last. They have this perfect mix of great singular talents, mixed with just an incredible poise, commitment to winning in all kinds of ways, and a trusted ability to just play smart at the right times.
The Lightning that have won have increasingly resembled this sort of team, rather than the high flying bunch they were (like Colorado now is) in the years prior. Granted, they still led the NHL in scoring in the first Cup year, and were 5th this past season. They can win playing up tempo too, but they know now that they don't have to, and if they want to get a 3rd cup they can't really - and need to focus on this "winning" approach they've come close to perfecting.
Be it down 3-2 to the Leafs in the first round, and down in Game 6. Be it against the President's Trophy winners without their top winger. Be it down 2-0 to the Rangers and further down 2-0 in Game 3. In all cases the Lightning just carried through with this auro of inevitability. And now it gets its final test.
While I drew comparison to the 2015 series (and I think it si fully valid there), the better comp may be to go back to those 1980 Islanders. Famously the Islanders final cup in 1983 was against the Oilers. The Oilers entered the series as the younger, faster, more dynamic team (you know, Gretzky, Messier, Kurri and the like.....). The Islanders entered as the grizzled vets, but one with more firepower than people remember, much of it lost to "winner" mythmaking and the like.
Well, in that series the older Islanders beat the Oilers - with Gretzky famously walking by the Islanders drsesing room after the Cup win to see a team with ice packs on knees and largely content (rather than raucously celebrating like we would expect). We've later learned this is almost certainly a bullshit story - the Islanders famously had some partiers on the team, and the Oilers were even more famous for their wild ways, so they certainly didn't learn any lessons. But still, the story, the imagery, and the importance struck. And 39 years later, the Lightning get to match the Islanders in three-peat glory by trying to win the same way, and I can't wait to watch it unfold.
