The Stanley Cup Conference Finals starts today, one game a night, for up to two weeks. We have four teams of interest, with great competing storylines. A team ahead of schedule (Rangers) against a team going for generational glory in a three-peat (the Lightning). The team with the best player (Oilers) against a team with the best team because it has many of the best players (Colorado). All of it should be great. This has been a great playoffs from start to finish so far, but this should be the crowning moment.
Igor Shestirken is almost assuredly winning the Vezina trophy. After a rough start to the Pittsburgh series, he reverted back to his other-worldly Vezina winning ways in the last three games as the Rangers clawed back from 1-3 down. He was brilliant in each of the Rangers four wins against Carolina and for the whole series put up just insane numbers, and is playing very much like the guy who is going to run away with the Vezina. The Rangers had exactly like two years of questionable goaltending between all-time Henrik Lundqvist and now Igor. Teams have ridden hot goalies for decades, and while we can argue he is not even the hottest goalie in this series, Igor gives this team more than a fighting chance.
9.) Mike Smith being weird
Darcy Kuemper is a perfectly acceptable goalie. Not great by any stretch but easily good enough. This is true to enough certainty that it doesn't look weird that he is the goalie of a Final four team. Well, Mike Smith, in the year of our lord 2022, does certainly fit that description. He did many years ago. He was excellent in his first two trips to the playoffs in 2011 and 2012. This is a good decade later, he's now 40. He's done bizarre things like give up a 150-foot goal that ranks among the worst ever conceded in the playoffs. But he also somehow has a .927 save percentage, and survived various shot barrages. Smith has become the reverse of many a great goalie in that he only seems to give up bad and soft goals, but has made key saves. His stickhandling is still decent htough even there he can get into adventures. The idea that 40-year old Mike Smith could conceivably be starting Stanley Cup Finals games is just bonkers but here we are!
8.) Can Tampa push forward
Tampa received a whole series of plaudits for adjusting their game without Brayden Point against Florida, understanding they innately were the less skilled team and played like it. We aren't sure if Point will be back, but they are the more skilled team, or at the very least its pretty close in this one. The Lightning need to switch up again here to how they played against Toronto. They'll have time and space and a good chunk of possession. Against a goalie like Shesterkin it will be interesting to see if the Lightning get frustrated or just play the course in a very different style series to the one they just dominated in.
7.) The Avalanche never-ending onslaught
The weirdest game of the entire postseason might be Game 2 of the Avalanche v. Blues series. In that game the Blues, in Colorado, controlled play for a majority of the game, outshooting the Avs and winning 4-1. And I'm sure at that moment there was a sense of "here we go again" to the series. But no, the Avalanche quickly regained control of the series and carried play throughout. The Avalanche's never ending waves of possession, control and shots. It is magical to watch. We expect it from the main line, but the 2nd Kadri line or even the depth lines. It helps when they have a never ending line of speedy, skilled guys, with defensemen that can absolutely carry play (more to come there). The Avs at their best are one of the most dominant teams I've seen, and while the Oilers can match their top skill players the depth edge the Avs have can absolutely tilt the series.
6.) The Lightning's commitment
Two points ago I talked about the Lightning being able to open up things. I clearly believe that to be true. But let's not look past the fact that the Lightning will likely still not have Brayden Point for a while, and their 1-3-1 zone defense has now stymied two top offenses. The Lightning's commitment to quickly reaching any dump-in, blocking shots, trying to make any zone entry by their opponent to have just one shot (often a blocked one) is so commendable. Not so much that they're doing anything novel, but doing it in such an exacting, continuous and peerless way.
5.) The Rangers Kid Line
The Rangers have a lot of top tier players, from their soon-to-be Vezina winning goalie, to their Norris winning defenseman, to all-star caliber players like Artemi Panarin and Mike Zibanejad. The fact that they've leveled up here isn't so shocking. What is shocking is that they've done it without getting huge contributions from their 2019 #2 overall pick Kaapo Kakko and their very ballyhooed 2020 #1 pick Alexis Lafreniere. Kakko had just 18 points in 43 games, Lafreniere had 31 in 79. They're young. They still have more than enough time to develop. But Lafreniere has 7 points in the 14 playoffs games. Kakko doesn't but he's had his moments. Their line has been decent. The fact the Rangers are getting anything from these guys are just gravy, and maybe this is where they too could level up.
4.) Cale Makar
What is there to say. Makar may not win the Norris if the fact that Roman Josi nearly got 100 points sways a few people, but there is no doubt who is the best defenseman. Ok, maybe there is some doubt, but there is no doubt on who will be the best over the next five years. It is Cale Makar, easily. He had a relatively quiet 2nd round on the stat sheet, he was dominant in most possession and zone entry metrics. He plays at a speed that is so rare from a defenseman. He is a joy to watch, the defensive version of McDavid (yeah.... admittedly that might be a stretch). They'll depend on him (and a quick shout-out to Devon Toews) to slow down the McDavid-Draisaitl-Kane line mostly by just having the puck, and few can provide more success there than Makar.
3.) The Avs Growing Up
The Avs are a great team. They've also been one for a few years. They were arguably the best team in the 2019-20 season (Boston is probably the other choice), and then blew a lead to Dallas in the bubble losing in seven in the second round. Admittedly it is hard to compare last year given the division-only schedules, the Avs were easily the best team in the 2020-21 regular season. They took a 2-0 lead in the second round, and Vegas popped them for four straight including a bit of an embarrassing loss in the clincher. The Avs had some baggage - but much like the Caps, Lightning, Blues, Sharks, etc., finally talent won out. That said, while they finally broke the seal on making the Conference Finals, a loss here to Edmonton will be a failure. The Avs pressure hasn't gone away.
2.) Connor McDavid, All of it
Quietly, Leon Draisaitl has caught Connor McDavid in points for the playoffs, matching him with 26 points in 12 games. Of course 'caught' is more to say Draisaitl went crazy in games 4-5 against Calgary. It isn't like Connor has slowed down. He hasn't slowed down a second in these playoffs. He has been insane. It isn't the goals, some where he seems to stop time and other where he's operating at a level quicker than ever. It isn't the passes. It's the puck control and body control. It is him pirouetting and shashaying his way around the ice in a way I haven't seen ever before - somewhat similar to prime Sidney Crosby but at a speed that Crosby couldn't match. McDavid's already done absolutely astonishing things, like leading a worse Edmonton team to Game 7 of the 2nd round in his second season, or getting 100 points in the 56-game season last year. If anything him ending with just 123 points this year is something of a disappointment. Well, nothing he's done these playoffs is a dissapointment, it has been incredible from the jump.
1.) The Lightning's Run to Glory
I've written enough about the Lightning. If they lose to the Rangers, this is already probably the best post-salary cap 8-year run, featuring three trips to the Finals, two Cups, (will be)three Conference Finals losses, etc., But if they win? And if they can finish this off? The last threepeat in baseball was the 1998-2000 Yankees. The last threepeat in basketball was the 2000-2002 Lakers. The last in hockey was the Islanders winning four straight from 1980-83. It's been a while, a long while. The Lightning are already further along the path than any team since (other than if you count the 1984 Islanders as going for a separate threepeat...). The two Oilers teams that won back-to-back reached the 2nd round and 1st roud. The '93 Penguins, '99 Red Wings and '18 Penguins all lost in teh 2nd round. The Lightning are in uncharted territory already, but man if they can do it? This is an all-time run within another longer all-time run. Cherish it, even if Prince Igor takes it away from them.
