Ranking the AFC Playoff Field
7.) Cleveland Browns = 11-5 (408-419)
Overall: It's surprising how few people are talking about the Browns having a negative point differential. Granted, its entirely the cause of losing two games 76-13 against the Ravens and Steelers early in the year, but take those away and their +52 for an 11-3 team which isn't that great either. I'm happy for the Browns and their fans that they are in the playoffs for the first time in 18 years. I'm also acknowledging that this isn't the best team, though they've been hampered by injuries (apparently are getting healthier) and a bizarre string of November weather-impacted games.
Offense: The Browns are just a good offense. Not great, mind you, but good. The closest thing to great is their OL and their run game - especially Nick Chubb, but even Hunt has been good. But they rank around #10 in basically most advanced stats: pts/drive, yds/drive, overall DVOA, pass & run DVOA and on and on and on. They are also highly variable week to week, which in theory helps because they are capable of truly great games, but also capable of drek.
Defense: On this side, the Browns are consistently below-avearge. On their face they have a good pass rush, but even there with just 38 sacks they are below average, and that is before now missing Olivier Vernon. They should have some secondary players back which will help their 25th rank pass defense by DVOA but the Browns are not a good defense, only looking good when they were able to play a string of teams in rain, mud and snow.
Random Fact:
6.) Tennessee Titans = 11-5 (491-439)
Overall: The 2020 Titans are very much like the 2019 Titans after Tannehill took over but a more extreme version - a horrifyingly good combination of power running and play-action/deep throwing, plus a defense that is even worse at rushing the passer. Their offense is great, the defense is not, though because of their 'smashmouth' style it doesn't always seem that way.
Offense: The Titans offense is great. That isn't an understatement. They finished the year #4 in offensive DVOA, #4 passing, #2 rushing, #3 in yards/drive, #2 in points/drive, with low turnover rates. They've finally settled a bit on their skill position guys - having a monster like AJ Brown helps settle things. The only aspect that hurts the Titans offense (and again, not too much) is the fact they don't get too many cracks with the ball because.....
Defense: The Titans defense is very, very bad. They are the mirror image in many ways of the Titans offense. They rank #29 in total DVOA, #30 in pass defense DVOA, #30 in yards/drive allowed and #27 in pts/drive allowed. The one thing they seem to do well is force turnovers, which is not always a repeatable skill and given how low turnover rates are now there is some noise there. The one thing they are just awful at is rushing the passer, with a random 4-sack game in Week 17 to make them look not historically bad.
Random Fact:
5.) Indianapolis Colts = 11-5 (451-362)
Overall: The Colts to me are the AFC version of the Rams, with a few exceptions. On the whole a good defense, a good offense but one that scores less than it should, with a QB that may melt down every now and then. That isn't fully true though as the Colts defense did fall off in the second half of the season (injuries played a part, including that total anomaly against Tennessee) and their offense ending up scoring a decent amount of points.
Offense: The Colts are solid across the board, #12 in overall DVOA, top-half in both passing and rushing (and getting better at both across the year), and #7 in yds/drive and #11 in pts/drive. The Colts did have a few truly important developments in the second half of the season, with Jonathan Taylor really breaking out, and TY Hilton awaking from a weird slumber in the first half of the season. The real question mark will be Anthony Costanzo's absence, as their numbers with and without him are stark.
Defense: The defense fell off in the second half but not considerably. For the year, they ended in the Top-10 in defensive DVOA overall and against both pass and run. They were a little worse on a per-drive basis, but were #4 in forcing turnovers, with a ball-hawky team that remained so across the year. Buckner, Leonard and Moore are the stars, but this is just a solid defense across the board coached very well - again much like their NFC doppelganger in the Rams.
Random Fact:
4.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 12-4 (416-312)
Overall: The Steelers 11-0 start seems so long ago - and of course it is. Aside from one pass-interference enabled comeback of a half against Indianapolis, the Steelers have been sleepwalking for a while. Maybe that half wakes them up - and certainly their defense is still very good, but that offense will need to wake up and recapture some of the deep ball prowess they had in that Colts half.
Offense: Want some good news? The Steelers rarely turn it over, with a bottom-5 turnover rate. The bad news? Everything else about this offense is middling, ranking in the 20s in offensive, passing, rushing DVOA, yds/drive and pts/drive. Roethlisberger has turned into some hyper-Brees, averaging under 10 ypc in most games - despite him still having very good success when throwing between 11-19 yards - something they just decide not to do. It can gin up some points because the weapons are good enough but defenses adjusted.
Defense: Well, this is a lot more fun. Injuries took some of the sting away from the Steelers defense over the year - paricularly in their linebacker corp - they still end up near the top in almost everything. They ended #1 in DVOA, #1 against the pass and #5 against the run. They are also #2 in yards and #2 in points per drive, in teh Top-10 as well in forcing turnovers. This is just a great unit all around.
Random Fact:
3.) Baltimore Ravens = 11-5 (468-303)
Overall: If I'm going to make a comparison that the Colts are the AFC's version of the Rams, well, the Ravens are the AFC's version of the Bucs. This is another team that was mired in issues midway through the season that nicely got to fatten up on an easy schedule to end it. I'll give the Ravens credit for the win in Cleveland, but aside from that they played a string of awful teams in their 5-game win streak. Maybe they've turned a corner, and certainly the Ravens played about twelve weeks of this season looking like the juggernaut they were in 2019, but those other four weeks still exist.
Offense: The Ravens are a good not great offense in all respects aside from their #3 running game by DVOA. They probably should have been higher but offensive line injuries midway through took a toll. The offense has also had to overcome cases of drops and Marquise Brown disappearing for half a year. Oodles of rushing yards these last five games will make things seem shinier than they are but this is not close to the offense we saw last year.
Defense: The Ravens ranked #4 in pts/drive allowed with a top-5 turnover forced rate. They still blitz a lot but were less effective with said blitzes this year. The personnel is still there however, guys like Humphrey and Bowser are still strong and effective players. Their secondary can be had at times (Peters has been more bad Peters this year) but a unique scheme makes it work most of the time. The Ravens are a high-variance team by design because more often than not they will hit the high.
Random:
2.) Buffalo Bills = 13-3 (501-375)
Overall: Man, the Bills ended strong. They had a great record midway through the season but didn't ahve a point differential to go along with it. After a dominant end to the season, that is no longer a problem. The Bills haven't been challenged in a while. They are the first Bills team to score 500 points and did it with ease. Best for them the defense improved significantly as the season went on.
Offense: It's still so shocking how well Josh Allen played without really dropping off. He started great, we all waited for the run to end, and it just didn't. He's so much calmer back there and has really done well to build such quick rapport with Diggs. They still turn it over a bit too much (19th highest rate) but are so efficient otherwise (#5 offense DVOA, #3 passing). This is just a really good offense.
Defense: The Bills rank #12 in defensive DVOA, which is good. They are #7 in weighted DVOA, indicating they've ended the season stronger than they started, as they start coming close to resembling the defense from last year. Still they aren't at that level but White and the secondary have gotten better as the year has gone on. Their biggest strength was forcing turnovers (2nd highest rate) which is a good strength when opponents may have to play a lot of catch-up.
1.) Kansas City Chiefs = 14-2 (473-362)
Overall: The Chiefs are the 2020 version of the 2009 Colts, a team that went 14-2 (14-0 in games they tried to win) but due to a slew of clsoe games and late season resting their point differential wasn't so great. Certainly, it doesn't seem like the Chiefs escaped that many games - but they had seven straight wins under seven points, which is astounding. The Chiefs are a great team, but they are far from unbeatable.
Offense: The Chiefs ended the year #2 in DVOA, #2 in passing DVOA and #1 in yds/dirve. Where they've really struggled is shockingly in teh red zone. Their inability to score in the red zone was so confounding throughout the season. The hope for the Chiefs is they were more just playing around trying random shit and in the playoffs they';ll go more straight to normal plays. Maybe that's the cause, but to me if they get picked off, its a 23-19 type loss.
Defense: On paper, and in my memory, KC seems like a good defense. They didn't give up that many points - though did have a habit of allowing a late TD to make the game seem closer. They rank in the 20s in DVOA, hurt by a 31st ranked rush defense. They force a decent amount of turnovers, so much like the Bills they can use that to their advantage when teams are forced to throw to catch up.
Ranking the NFC Playoff Field
7.) Chicago Bears = 8-8 (372-370)
Overall: I could be underrating them if you take their results from just Trubisky games, where they went 5-2. Of course, they also felt he was doing so bad in those games early on that they benched Mitch and no one really batted an eye. The Bears are the Bears, a middling offense and a better than middling defense. When the league expanded to 14 playoff teams, this is exactly the team people did not want getting a 7th playoff seed. But here we are.
Offense: It's interesting how consistent the Bears are in their below-averageness on offense. They are #25 in overall DVOA, and #23 passing and #25 rushing, but only #6 in variance, meaning they are consistently one of the bottom-10 offenses week to week. They turn the ball over a lot, and are #31 in yards per drive. Granted, maybe all these numbers are better when you just take the Trubisky games, but hte low variance would indicate otherwise. The one bright spot is David Montgomery having a nice stretch to end the season.
Defense: On the other hand.... the Bears defense is about as good as ever (aside from their few top-of-the-league years), ranking #8 in overall DVOA, and #4 against the run, and in the Top-10 in both yards and points allowed per drive. They don't force too many turnovers, which is a stark difference from the Bears great defenses of old, but they also played the toughest set of offenses in the NFL.
Random Fact:
6.) Washington Football Team = 7-9 (335-329)
Overall: So, while they are under .500, we should draw a distinction between this team and the two prior recent sub-.500 playoff teams. Washington ended the season +6 in point differential, with one unit that is great (defense ended #3 in DVOA), but admittedly one awful unit (#32 offense!). The 2010 Seahawks were a -92, and the 2014 Panthers were -35. These Redskins are not those teams, and both of those teams won a playoff game.
Offense: Oof, this is going to be rough. The Redskins are #32 in DVOA overall and passing (decent at running, which doesn't help in 2020). If you want a slight bright spot, they are better in non-Haskins games but in reality not appreciably so. The other bright spot could be that Gibson and McLaurin will be playing.
Defense: Well, this is more fun. The Football Team is #3 overall, #2 against the pass, #3 in yds allowed/drive and #3 in pts allowed/drive. Their variance isn't the best but they are a top defense in the league - that's generally what happens when you get Ron Rivera behind a talented set of players. They are healthy as well. Their only hope, be it the Wild Card game or others, is that defense balling out. They have that capability, for sure.
Random Fact:
5.) Los Angeles Rams = 10-6 (372-296)
Overall: God bless the Rams - they were the only team in the NFL to give up less than 300 points ending the year at 296. Of course, that is the highest total for the #1 scoring defense, and with the league going to a 17-game schedule next year we may never see such a team again (probably an overstatement). Anyway, the Rams are a great defense, a middling offense that looks nice but never scores that much - again, the NFC version of the Colts.
Offense: I don't know if Goff will play - reports are very ambivalent on that potential. I also don't know how much it matters, as the offense under Wofford looked basically the same. They ended the season #10 in DVOA, but that seems to way overstate their ability. By drive stats they are below average in everything - #19 in yards/drive, #25 in pts/drive, and bottom-10 in turnovers/drive. Again, not really sure how they ended up #10 in overall DVOA - they are #4 in rushing (their RBBC is great) and they run a lot, I guess?!
Defense: Now for more fun things. The Rams defense is great, arguably best in the league. They finished #3 in DVOA, #4 against the pass, #3 against the run, and #1 in both pts and yds allowed per drive. They have a giant stud at both levels with Donald and Ramsey and their defense is centered around those two being superhuman and then letting the rest of their team cook. Guys like Floyd, Brockers and Troy Hill have been great all year.
Random Fact:
4.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers = 11-5 (492-355)
Overall: Unsurprisingly, the Buccaneers took advantage of a tissue-soft schedule to finish it up and turn what seemed like a season on the rocks at 7-5 to a 11-5 and "peaking at the right time" headlines. This is all accurate, but it is stark that the Buccaneers are a beautiful 1-5 against playoff teams (the one win though was their stomp of the Packers) and 10-0 against non-playoff teams. Either way, their offense is certainly peaking at the right time.
Offense: Brady has been Brady for the most part, unless he's pressured and then he drops to a Trubisky-esque player. Mike Evan's status will be interesting to watch, though Brady has now developed a better rapport with Godwin than earlier in the year. Their offense ended #5 in passing DVOA and #10 in rushing DVOA, but fairly high in variance - no surprise there. On a per-drive basis its a bit up and down in the top-half of the league - aside from a league-low fumble rate. One weird aspect is almost a historic year in drawing pass interference penalties - something that often goes down in the playoffs.
Defense: The Bucs defense was the best in the league for the first half of the season but fell off, specifically their passing defense. Still ending the year in the Top-10 in most standard and advanced stats. Their defense relies on the blitz quite often which isn't necessarily bad - and as shown against the first Green Bay matchup can work really well, but it is a risky way to play.
Random Fact:
3.) Seattle Seahawks = 12-4 (459-371)
Overall: Remember when the Seahawks were riding high with an offense that was on pace to set TD records, but a defense that was going to give up 5,000+ yards? Well, a lot has changed. The Seahawks remained good throughout but the way they did that turned on its head fully. By the end of the season their offense was scattershot (Wilson didn't come close to any records) but the defense improved tremendously, specifically on pass rush and pass coverage. No idea if that makes the late-season Seahawks better or worse than the early-season vintage.
Offense: The Seahawks still ended up #6 in DVOA and #6 in passing offense, and #9 in rushing offense. All that is good, but they were better earlier on. Their OL fell off dramatically, and overtime more teams were able to adjust to Metcalf as well. The Seahawks are a good offense, capable of being a great one, but they'll need their OL to play better to unlock it.
Defense: The Seahawks defense ended the year #16 in DVOA, but #11 in weighted DVOA, indicating their improvement over the season. Some of it was the return of Jamal Adams, but also bringing in Carlos Dunlap and just get better most consistent performance from their defensive line in general.
Random Fact:
2.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4 (482-337)
Overall: The Saints finished with 12+ wins for a third straight year, with a top offense (by the numbers) and a defense that after a slow start has been dominant for 10+ weeks now. The Saints are a very good, balanced team. Of course, every other game or so it looks like Drew Brees has lost the ability to throw the ball - or more pointedly Sean Payton thinks he's lost hte ability to throw the ball. Either way, the Saints likely last run in the Brees era (rumblings are growing he's retiring) has the chance to be great but a lot will be dependent on which Brees we get.
Offense: The Saints ended the year #7 in offensive DVOA, but surprisingly that was driven by their running game, which ended up #1 - of course this includes their Taysom Hill games. On a per-drive basis the Saints were not all that great in yards but far better in pts/drive - some of that driven by their strong red zone play (having Taysom Hill helps a bit more in the red zone), and some is they have the best average starting field position. The team's run game is still very strong and despite how bad he may look at times, Brees and hte offense is still able to move the ball.
Defense: Why do the Saints have the league's best average starting field position? Well, their #2 defense by DVOA (#3 against the pass, #2 against the run) has a lot to do with that. They force a decent amount of 3-and-outs, have the second best interception rate, and are good in the red zone. Basically this is a very good defense that if anything got better as the season went on. If you want one area to key on as a negative, they had the worst variance - some of that is their improvement over time but it speaks to a defense that is a worldbeater at its best and merely average at its worst.
Rank:
1.) Green Bay Packers = 13-3 (509-369)
Overall: Well, well, well, the Packers 13-3 record in 2020 seems a bit different than it did in 2019 doesn't it. That team was one of the least impressive 13-3 teams in recent memory. Now, this team isn't a particularly impressive one, but if you give someone the stat sheet of the team no one would be shocked they went 13-3. Rodgers (along with Adams and Jones) is the key, but the defense too got better as the year went on. The Packers are very, very good and for the first time since 2011 have the #1 seed to boot.
Offense: Yeah, it's almost boring to talk about how good the Packers offense was. #1 in overall DVOA, #1 in passing, #5 in rushing, #1 in pts/drive (far ahead of anyone else), lowest turnover rate, good in the red zone. The running game is the key, quietly powering that team to where Rodgers hasn't even had to throw it so often. This is the closest thing to the 2004 Colts as I've seen. Now, of course there is a huge question mark about the loss of David Bakhtiari, but Rodgers is good enough to overcome it and the Packers can get worse and still be a top-2 offense.
Defense: The defense is also boring to talk about since they are perfectly average in about everything. #17 overall DVOA, #15 against the pass, #18 against the run, #14 yds/drive, #17 pts/drive. They have trended up over the course of the season, particularly in the secondary. One of the Smiths is still a dominant rusher, and while Preston Smith hasn't been as good this year, Rashan Gary picked up the pace. The last piece was having Jaire Alexander turn into a good facsimile of a shutdown corner. Everything is primed for this team.
Ranking the Wild Card Games
6.) (N7) Chicago Bears (8-8) @ (N2) New Orleans Saints (12-4) (Sun 4:40 - CBS)
These two played an OT game earlier this year that to be honest the Bears should have won. More odd was that the Bears started Nick Foles in that game. That said, the Saints team today is better than that group, particularly defensively as they started to really get better on that side of the ball as the season went on. I just don't think the Bears pose a realistic challenge in New Orleans compared to what they did in Chicago. Also, it will be depressing to have a playoff game in New Orleans - potentially one of the last games of Brees's career - without fans.
5.) (N6) Los Angeles Rams (10-6) @ (N3) Seattle Seahawks (12-4) (Sat 4:40 - FOX)
If Goff plays, I would put this at #3, but it seems more and more like he won't. That is sad, as this has turned into a nice little rivalry since McVay came on. Of course, before that it was a nasty little rivalry in the Fisher days. The one constant is the Rams defense has always been able to play fairly well against Wilson - especially this year. The Rams are not set-up so well though if they have to go with their backup, and by all accounts that will be the case. I get he was viable against Arizona, but playoffs on the road in Seattle (even without a crowd) will be very different.
4.) (N5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (11-5) @ (N4) Washington Football Team (7-9) (Sat 8:15 - NBC)
There are two outcomes for this game, one is a Bucs blowout against an overmatched opponent that puts this as the least watchable game of the weekend. The other, however, is Wasington is able to pressure Brady, something none of the Bucs recent opponents had much ability to do, and Brady as he has done the last two years, greatly drops his level due to the rush. That leaves us with a highly entertaining game. So I'm splitting the middle here.
3.) (A6) Cleveland Browns (11-5) @ (A3) Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4) (Sun 8:15 - NBC)
I know many are excited to see the Browns in the playoffs, and largely ranking this game third is for that reason. That said, the Browns nearly lost to a Mason Rudolph-led Steelers team and lost 38-7 to a Roethlisberger-led Steelers team, and haven't won in Pittsburgh in 17 years. That all said, it is fun to have the Browns in the playoffs!
2.) (A7) Indianapolis Colts (11-5) @ (A2) Buffalo Bills (13-3) (Sat 1:00 - CBS)
The Colts have shown little ability to beat good teams, aside from their wins against Tennessee and the Green Bay comeback. That said, they are rarely blown out - aside from their covid-related loss to the Titans. The Bills have been blowing out everyone recently, but the Colts defense is a stiffer challenge. Having Rivers back in teh playoffs is nice as well. Best part is there will be a very limited amount of fans in the building. It's only 6000 or so, but glad a few fans can see the first Bills home playoff game in 25 years.
1.) (A5) Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ (A4) Tennessee Titans (11-5) (Sun 1:00 - CBS)
Finally, this is a great game. First, its a rematch of an OT game earlier this year. Then its a rematch of last year's Divisional Round upset - which I'm sure Lamar and Co would like to give some payback for. Finally, its a rematch of a set of playoff games in the way back, as the Titans and Ravens met in the playoffs in 2000 (24-10 Ravens win), 2003 (20-17 Titans win) and 2008 (13-10 Ravens win). Weirdly the home team has lost all four playoff meetings - including three games where the home team (loser) had a large yardage advantage. No one playing this week has any connection to 2008 aside from John Harbaugh as coach, but it is nice for some nostalgia here.
Award Predictions - limiting to MVP & Coach of the Year
MVP
1.) Aaron Rodgers (QB, GB)
2.) Patrick Mahomes (QB, KC)
3.) Josh Allen (QB, BUF)
I still think Mahomes is the best player in football, but it is impossible to deny Aaron Rodgers the MVP for that season.
Coach of the Year
1.) Matt LaFleur (Green Bay)
2.) Ron Rivera (Washington)
3.) Brian Flores (Miami)
It's a weird year with no clear favorite here. There's no team that jumped up a huge amount of wins. Washington obliquely fits, making the playoffs after a 3-13 season last year - but I don't know if the world is ready for a coach of a 7-9 team to win this award. Especially since Rivera has already won it twice. I can see some momentum for him though due to him battling cancer throughout the season, which I wouldn't be opposed to. For Flores, he was the easy leader in this until the Dolphins choked away a playoff appearance. If you could give the Washington team Miami's record it becomes easy.
Ultimately, I think LaFleur deserves it almost more for what he's done over two years, but particularly his offense making Rodgers (and Devante) into a hydra monster again. LaFleur came to Green Bay when it was seen as a team fully on the downside, having wasted years of Rodgers prime. His changes turned them around immediately, and while his team didn't have a better record this year, so much around them has. They were one of the worst 13-3 teams ever last year, and by a lot of underlying metrics they should have done worse this year. Instead, they played like a great team that fully deserved its 13-3 record, with LaFleur's offense as the centerpiece.
