The "Hey We Thought they were Bad, and they are Bad" Trio
16.) New York Jets (17-27)
15.) Miami Dolphins (11-21)
14.) Cleveland Browns (6-38)
I honestly think compared to most Week 1s of recent years, the 2020 version had the least surprises. In isolation there's a few of them, but on the whole mostly what we expected to happen, happened. And with these three teams - maybe with the exception of the Browns - it came to pass in a big way. The Jets were an absolute mess, totally flattered by that score. It wasn't even Darnold to me so much as the rest of the roster just falling apart. Miami is also flattered by that score - with the dreaded fumble through the end zone costing the Pats another TD. If they switch to Tua, they become more interesting for sure. With the Browns, chances are that is the worst game they play, but after playing the Ravens fairly close last year, they seemed lost. The Stefanski type of offense needs controlled mobility from a QB; not whatever the hell it was that Mayfield was doing. I do worry he's too far gone at this point.
The "Intriguing Signs.... But Probably Not" Duo
13.) Cincinnati Bengals (13-16)
12.) Carolina Panthers (30-34)
Joe Burrow looked fine, and the decision not to trade away AJ Green maybe is shortsighted, but gives Burrow a dependable, great weapon - even an aged one. The Bengals defense played fine as well. They might be frisky, and already seem like a more reasonable 3rd place team than the Browns do. The Panthers rush defense is absolutely putrid, but the offense under Bridgewater is doing a decent 2017 Cam impression, with McCaffery still as a superstar. In the end, their faults (general lack of premier talent for Bengals, glaring holes for Carolina) will almost certainly undo them, but for one week there were some intriguing signs.
The "I'm going to regret taking positives out of that game" Uno
11.) New York Giants (16-26)
Ok, this might look really bad in a few weeks, but I was to some degree impressed by the Giants yesterday. They were overwhelmed in the first half aside from the couple plays leading to and through the TD pass. But in the second half, starting with that monster 19-play drive, their offense looked good. Daniel Jones looked poised, and far more importantly, looked accurate. He and Slayton have a great chemistry. The rush offense, and more pointedly OLine was a disaster, but maybe it is the Steelers are just phenomenal up front. The defense was decent, pressuring Roethlisberger constantly, and varying between great coverage and too-soft coverage. I just think the Steelers are really good, and they hung with them decently well - it could have looked a lot of different if Jones threw it away instead of a goal-line pick.
The "Let's not overreact to Week 1" Trio
10.) Detroit Lions (23-27)
9.) Houston Texans (20-34)
8.) Denver Broncos (14-16)
It's almost become cliche to say not to overreact to Week 1 results, but it is so true and remains so in 2020. I think the stat is generally 4-6 teams make the playoffs each year after losing their first game. For the Lions, they've almost given back all the mindless goodwill and praise that was thrown at them with twenty putrid minutes, but maybe let's credit them for 40 good ones prior to that. If not for a Falcons-in-Super-Bowl set of mistakes (sack leading to missed field goal, interception when trying to burn the clock) they win. For the Broncos, in some degree they got lucky Gostkowski had a night from hell, but they also were stoned at the goal line. It was a decent performance and the defense showed it still has strengths even after losing Miller. For the Texans - to me its just they played a far better team and lost, but acquitted themselves decently. The Watson offense looked better than I expected without Nuk and still with a lousy O-line. I personally don't see any of these as playoff teams (admittedly, I did with Denver until the Miller injury).
The "Seriously, please don't overreact to Week 1" Trio
7.) Minnesota Vikings (34-43)
6.) Philadelphia Eagles (17-27)
3.) Atlanta Falcons (25-38)
Now these were three playoff teams that looked various levels of dreadful to me. The Vikings basically slept for a half and when they woke up it was too late. But also they got scorched by Rodgers having one of those days against a very green set of corners. You have to expect this is a low watermark for the Vikings defense, and the offense was still good without Diggs. The Eagles were a mess. That OL should get better when Lane Johnson gets back, but the loss of Brooks is huge. Wentz (or Pederson's game plan) needs to start focusing on shorter passing given the protections issues that will linger. The Falcons defense for the hundredth year in a row is a mess, but the offense is still good and much like Minnesota just ran into a buzzsaw that might be better than we all realized in Seattle.
The "But maybe you should if the QB is aged" Duo
4.) Indianapolis Colts (20-27)
3.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (23-34)
So maybe we can see these both as 'don't overreact' type results as well, but given Rivers is 39, and Brady is 43, and both had multiple mental gaffes to me they're a bit different. They're similar in a way with older QBs plugged around decent skill position players (Indy with a better OL, Tampa with better weapons), and both those QBs made huge errors. Rivers are more pointed because the game was closer, but with Brady the game wans't close beacuse of those issues. I don't think its necessarily an arm strength thing (wait till we get to Mr. Brees) but both players pocket presence and strength in the pocket has fallen way off - Rivers wasn't great to begin with. This is a problem.
The "The more things change, the more they stay the same" Uno
2.) Dallas Cowboys (17-20)
Other than the fact Jason Garrett probably doesn't go for that ill-fated 4th down attempt, this so easily could have been so many different losses in the Garrett era: nice stats, no glaring issues, but in the end it doesn't translate. Prescott was fine, no one turned it over, Zeke was nearly 5.0 ypc. All good things. Somehow with Dallas that always results in less points than you expect. This is still not a great division seemingly, and maybe the Rams are better than we all think. But for this idea the Cowboys were a losing-Jason-Garrett away from being some Chiefs type offense certainly doesn't seem the case.
The "Super Bowl Hangover, is it a thing again?" Uno
1.) San Francisco 49ers (20-24)
For years, the Super Bowl loser curse was a thing, starting with the 2001 Rams not making the playoffs the next year. It was five more years until the loser made the playoffs again - and it was just barely with the 2006 Seahawks going 9-7. But then things seemed to change, starting with the 2009 Cardinals (10-6) with the '10 Colts (10-6), '11 Steelers (12-4), '12 Pats (12-4), '13 49ers (12-4), '14 Broncos (12-4), '15 Seahawks (10-6) all doing well. It crested with the 2018 Pats winning the Super Bowl. But last year, the Rams faced all the year-after challenges that befixed those old 2000s Super Bowl losers, and maybe the same happens here. Garappolo is still not great and there may be tension if the offense continues to suffer. The real issue to me was their defense not really showing up - giving up 400 yards for the first time to a team aside from Brees in the Superdome last year. Maybe it's nothing but the Super Bowl hangover was a thing for a long time, and the signs are there.
Ranking the 1-0 Teams
The "Aww, that's Cute" Duo
16.) Jacksonville Jaguars (27-20)
15.) Washington Football Team (27-17)
So here we have two teams that were supposed to compete for the first overall pick - maybe not so much the Redskins, but definitely the Jaguars. And what do you know? They both won. It isn't so uncommon the teams we all think will stink win their first game - often times they end up being who we thought they were. Have to think that is true here. The Jaguars aren't going to have Minshew go 19-20 ever again - and even then they were outgained 2:1. The Redskins aren't going to have 8 sacks again - well, maybe in a Rivera defense they will...
The "Hey, you never know?" Quadro
14.) Chicago Bears (27-23)
13.) Arizona Cardinals (24-20)
12.) Los Angeles Chargers (16-13)
11.) Las Vegas Raiders (34-30)
These teams probably won't make the playoffs, but you never know. The Bears really should have lost that game, and if that is a 'good' Trubisky performance, they are in real deep shit. The Cardinals may have the most upside in this group, but I don't trust anything aside from Kyler and Hopkins, and didn't find their game-planning too inspiring. The Chargers can squeak out 7-8 wins with their great defense (assuming it doesn't get ravaged by injuries) and Taylor putting up his 17-21 points a week. The Raiders have a very good offense, but their defense is still a mess up front. That won't change, but it could work.
The "Bank Them Wins" Duo
10.) Tennessee Titans (16-14)
9.) Los Angeles Rams (20-17)
9.) Los Angeles Rams (20-17)
I don't know how good these teams are, but they may be good. All we know is they got a win, against a decent team. The Titans impressed me quite a bit - especially if you give them the 10 points taht Gostkowski cost them (seriously, how?). Tannehill looked great against what is left of the Broncos pass rush. He won't put up the ludicrous numbers of last year, but the Tannehill we saw on Monday is plenty good enough. The Rams only scored 20 points, but it seemed a lot like the Rams of 2018 - tempo, motion, Goff throwing to wide open players. The defense looked fine without the players they lost. I think the Cowboys are really good, so that win probably will look better and better.
The "Great AFC East Race" Duo
8.) Buffalo Bills (27-17)
7.) New England Patriots (21-11)
Oh man this is going to be fun. It is weird - maybe I'll write a story about it one day - that my love for Cam is overtaking my hatred for New England. Or maybe it is me knowing that it was about hating Brady all along. Anyway, the Cam Patriots were a joy to watch, because Cam is a joy to watch. What they are doing, shortening games, trusting a defense, using Cam at his best. In a weird way, these are two absolutely simialr teams - given Josh Allen's proclivity to run. The Bills are 1-53 more talented, and they have a coaching a staff that can make the most out of them. The problem is the Patriots have the better QB - as long as Cam is healthy - and an even better coach. The AFC East race will be fun for the first time since Rex Ryan at his peak.
The "So we're all going to decide not to talk about it...." Uno
6.) New Orleans Saints (34-23)
They won the game, and the defense looked great, but I feel like a lot of people are tiptoeing around how awful Brees looked. I don't know if his arm his shot - the few times he threw deep it looked OK - but I know that it seems Payton thinks that way. The amount of short, quick throws. The amount of screens. The amount of little dink passes. The abject fear to let Brees cut it loose. I am getting a lot of 2015 Manning flashbacks, or at the very least late-season 2014 Manning. Thankfully for them that defense looks excellent.
The "It's like the good ol' days" Trio
5.) Seattle Seahawks (38-25)
4.) Pittsburgh Steelers (26-16)
3.) Green Bay Packers (43-34)
It just feels right when the teams that have been good for a long time just stay good. The Seahawks and Packers may not end up being that great, but if their QBs play anywhere close to how they played in that game. The Packers defense was a mess, but their upside is still high if Jaire Alexander, Kenny Clark and the Smith's play the way they have been. For the Steelers, as I've already said I think we're underestimating the Giants, and their performacne was great. Especially the Steelers run defense just killing Saquon and Co. Roethlisberger's arm looked great, just a little off the mark with his throwing rhythm. Figure that will improve.
The "Great AFC Race" Duo
2.) Baltimore Ravens (38-6)
1.) Kansas City Chiefs (34-20)
Best two teams last year (and yes, I mean what I say) are still the best two seemingly. The Ravens played better in Week 1, just dominating the Browns in every way. Lamar was brilliant - as he almsot always is - without even running it this time. But the champs stay the champs, with a defense that is still good when it needs to be, in an aggressive, high-variance way, that complements a dominant offense nicely. We were spoiled a Chiefs @ Ravens title game last year (thanks Derrick Henry), and I so hope we don't have it spoiled again this time.
Looking ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) San Francisco 49ers (0-1) @ New York Jets (0-1) (1:00 - FOX)
15.) Buffalo Bills (1-0) @ Miami Dolphins (0-1) (1:00 - CBS)
14.) Jacksonville Jaguars (1-0) @ Tennessee Titans (1-0) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Carolina Panthers (0-1) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 - FOX)
12.) New York Giants (0-1) @ Chicago Bears (1-0) (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) @ Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Baltimore Ravens (1-0) @ Houston Texans (0-1) (4:25 - CBS)
10.) Baltimore Ravens (1-0) @ Houston Texans (0-1) (4:25 - CBS)
9.) Cleveland Browns (0-1) @ Cincinnati Bengals (0-1) (TNF - NFLN)
7.) Washington Redskins (1-0) @ Arizona Cardinals (1-0) (4:05 - FOX)
6.) Detroit Lions (0-1) @ Green Bay Packers (1-0) (1:00 - FOX)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (0-1) @ Indianapolis Colts (0-1) (1:00 - FOX)4.) Atlanta Falcons (0-1) @ Dallas Cowboys (0-1) (1:00 - FOX)
3.) New Orleans Saints (1-0) @ Las Vegas Raiders (1-0) (MNF - ESPN)
2.) Los Angeles Rams (1-0) @ Philadelphia Eagles (0-1) (1:00 - FOX)
1.) New England Patriots (1-0) @ Seattle Seahawks (1-0) (SNF - NBC)