Wednesday, August 28, 2019

NFL 2019: Pre-Season Power Rankings

Tier I - The "All Eyes on Tua" Duo

32.) Miami Dolphins

This is a weird year where a lot more teams seem fairly settled at QB with either proven vets or untested high draft picks. There are two large, gaping exceptions, which are these two. The Dolphins have been basically been tanking for a while now, and may be just maybe they've timed it right this time to get Tua or Trevor Lawrence or Herbert and finally be ready to contend once Brady retires in 2023. Of course, that was the plan also seven years ago when they drafted Tannehill.


31.) Cincinnati Bengals

The Bengals in theory have their QB, be it somehow Andy Dalton, or the guy they drafed in Ryan Finley. Anyway, the real future Bengals QB is probably a guy still in college, and they should get a chance to draft one high with AJ Green missing time and having Marvin Lewis and his floor of 5-6 wins gone.


Tier II - The "Maybe we can scam a team with All Eyes on Tua" Quadro

30.) Arizona Cardinals

Put me in the camp that think the combination of Kyler Murray and Kliff Kingsbury will take a bit longer to make waves than their first year - particularly with the coaching aspect as I don't think Kingsbury's credentials are really all that great. For the team, missing Peterson will be huge as that secondary is a trainwreck and will put Kyler in a lot of uncomfortable situations trying to overcome big deficits. At this point we have to hope this doesn't turn into an Andrew Luck situation.


29.) New York Giants

I have no idea what the Giants are doing, other than saying they likely won't be this bad, but I don't think there are more than a handful of teams with worse upsides than them. The Giants seem particularly rudderless with their bungling of this Manning/JOnes sitaution. John Mara's quote about hoping Jones doesn't see the field is laughably stupid. Anyway, they also traeded away the best WR in teh NFL and saw their other two receivers get suspended and hurt. Just great.


28.) Washington Redskins

I guess Case Keenum will start. I hope Dwayne Haskins takes over at some point in the season. The Redskins have a future here but a lot of it will take stripping the band-aid off and getting to Haskins quickly. They also have to resolve this Trent Williams situation. I know I'll probably beat this point to death but for Haskins too, starting his career with a backup LT on a weak OL is just asking for the problems Luck faced.


27.) San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy G looked terrible one week and competent the next. This time will honestly not be ruined by Jimmy G because there is enough of talent on that defense. But overall, I just think that Jimmy G is just not that good, and this team will slip against a tough schedule with no easy games. Shanahan is a great coach, but even he can only do so much.


Tier III - The "You know, there's always a random team that will make it" Quinto

26.) Oakland Raiders

There is one version of the season which the Raiders end up in the playoffs. They rise in the AFC that lost a key contender in the Colts. Antonio Brown actually figures out that helmet shit and plays like Antonio Brown. The team plays like the team that went 12-4 in 2016, which seems like a damn lifetime ago. Of course, given they still have no good players on defense, and Jon Gruden will probably turn on Carr at some point, that is just not going to happen.


25.) New York Jets

The Jets probably have the greatest upside of any of the teams in this group, but since they're the Jets, and are relying a lot on high priced free agents, I have to think there's also a decent likelihood it crashes. I do like Sam Darnold, and saw a lot of great things out of him in his rookie season. I wish they gave him better players to throw to - though Bell should help relieve some pressure in the passing game as well.


24.) Detroit Lions

I dom't get them. I don't know why they are attempting to run the ball more despite not having any of the foundation to do so. I don't know what their long term plan is on defense as Matt Patricia seems a bit lost. There is some talent on the edges, but I get the sad feeling they're wasting it away with Patricia as a coach. That said, Belichick proteges will randomly have the one good year, so maybe that is this one for Detroit.


23.) Indianapolis Colts

I still can't really talk about it. Let's just say though that this team still has a lot of talent.


22.) Jacksomville Jaguars

If Foles can be even half of what he was in Philadelphia, the Jaguars are something of a Wild Card contender. Of course, one of Foles's issues has been staying healthy, which will not bode well when the backups are completely unknown and the team is still in some strange run the ball mentality with the running back that they actively hate in Leonard Fournette. The defense still has a lot of talent, but all the players that were amazing in 2017 are just two years older now, which is important.


Tier IV - The "Maybe just maybe wild card fodder" Quadro

21.) Buffalo Bills

I may be actually discounting the Bills mostly because I don't really believe in this better, calmer, Josh Allen that we've been seeing in preseason. But if he actually has developed? Well, then the Bills are suddenly a really intriguing wild card team. The defense will be good - Sean McDermott's units almost always are. The offense needs more skill position talent, but the run game and OL are better than they have been in years. It all comes down to Allen - and for their sake I hope he continues to flash the talent so few thought he ever had.


20.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Here's another one that I could completely be wrong on. The marraige of Jameis and Bruce Arians may be really great - just as Arians was with prior scattershot big QBs in Ben and Carson. Of course, those guys are just better than Jameis, but this is by far the best match of offense for Jameis that he's had so far. The defense is still a disaster, but that offense could really show a lot in 2019. It will have to do so also as the Bucs can't push off a long-term Jameis decision any further.


19.) Tennessee Titans

I don't know if any team gains more from Luck's retirement than the Titans who nearly won the divison last year despite another pathetic offensive season from Marcus Mariota (strange 38-10 blowout of the Patriots excepted). I like the talent here, but I do have my doubts on Vrabel much like I still do with Patricia in Detroit. If anything, Vrabel at least coached a really good defense in 2018 that should be about as good again, but if your QB is going to struggle to get to 20 TDs you have little real chance.


18.) Denver Broncos

The Broncos may have a truly great defense in 2019. Von Miller and Chris Harris are still there and great. Nick Chubb was great as a rookie and could really burst. Vic Fangio is almost incapable of having a bad defense. Is that enough to win with a Flacco-led offense with little to no weaponry? Well, Flacco has "won" that way before, as has Fangio. This is another team that should benefit from Luck being out of the picture. I think their upside is a wild card winner with a great defense - something like the 2008-2010 Ravens with Flacco.


Tier V - The "Mid-Tier of the NFL" Qunto

17.) Dallas Cowboys

It's sad that the Cowboys have built a fairly strong team across the board, but this might end up being the high point of their success. The Dak situation and the Zeke situations are both hilarious because I'm pretty sure Jerry will fold at the end and send the Cowboys into cap hell. Until then, though, they have a nice team with a great OL, and a defense that will, sadly, probably regress heavily from last year's surprisingly stout unit. The talent just never matched that level of production. Also, I have a feeling Amari Cooper is going to revert to Raiders Cooper, which he almost started doing late in the season.


16.) Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks could end up better, but I do have some concerns. First, will they finally throw the damn ball? Second, will the mass exodus on defense finally catch up to them? Bobby Wagner is special, but he's basically the only link left to the great Seahawks defenses of yesteryear. Third, there is no way the Wilson -> Lockett connection is as good as it was in 2018. The Seahawks were still a playoff team, but despite them rebuilding last year, they seem to be in an even more uneven position this year.


15.) Cleveland Browns

Ok, I'm trying to tempt my optimism here. But I think Mayfield is special; Myles Garrett is already special; Odell is already special. The team can be special. Their ceiling is way hire than this. Their floor is probably not that far worse than this. My biggest reservation is Freddy Kitchens. I think people way too easily overlook the fact that he wasn't te head coach last year when they finished 5-1-1. Gregg Williams was. Kitchens schemed a great offense, but being a head coach is a different challenge and he has to manage a lot of egos and more expectations for maybe any Browns team ever.


14.) Pittsburgh Steelers

There's a very dichotomous view of the Steelers outlook at the moment. There's the people that see a QB who got a lot worse last year, now without Antonio Brown. Then there's the view that Ben will be motivated to show out without Brown and Bell, adn their defense as a whole was quite good in 2018. To me, I think it is closer to the former than the latter. Roethlisberger did noticeable slip, especially late in teh season, throwing way too many inaccurate jump balls and now has to do the same thing without Brown on the other end.


13.) Green Bay Packers

The LaFleur coaching season will be so interesting to watch given how little Rodgers cared for McCarthy by the end, and how little actual credentials LaFleur has (did anyone watch Tennessee's offense last year?). The team is also so wounded on offense. Their defense will have to some degree carry them, something that hasn't been needed in Green Bay since 2010. I love some of their defensive pieces but let's be careful as Pettine defenses (much like those of his mentor, Rex Ryan) usually have a clear expiry date.


Tier VI - The "Can greatness overcome coaching" Duo

12.) Atlanta Falcons

Oh the Falcons, the never ending team that will have it all come together one year. Of course, it did one year and they blew a 28-3 lead (still mad). The offense should be great - Matt Ryan was about 95% as good last year as he was in 2016 - but that defense still has to integrate players who have never been much more than just strong talent with little actual production.


11.) Houston Texans

This team should be Top-5 if their leadership wasn't so invested in power grabs and machismo instead of actually using their already incredible top-flight talent to bolster the team. They did so little to address their great OL. They are palying a stupid game of chicken with Jadeveon Clowney. They have no GM and insteadd are using some strange collective decision making nucleus. That all said, Watson, Hopkins, Watt, Clowney nad others is strong enough to make them fairly good despite all the ridiculousness on teh sidelines and in the box.


Tier VII - The "Mid-Tier Challengers" Trio

10.) Los Angeles Chargers

They would have been higher if not for the injury train already starting with Derwin James, who is a critical part of their secondary-heavy defensive gameplan. He had a great rookie year and its a shame to lose him for 3-4 months. The rest of the team is still solid, but I do wonder if we all looked a little too quickly past Phil Rivers' painful end to the season. Guys his age may still be good, but the idea that older quarterbacks almost always decline as the season goes on is a true one.


9.) Minnesota Vikings

Still a very good roster, but you have to wonder if some sort of mental fatigue or over-familiarity will come into play with that defense wahich has mostly been the same group for a few years now. There is some settling in that happens. The Vikings offense should still be quite good, but you do wonder if Kirk Cousins has even the gear that Case Keenum reached in 2017. They're still a very talented team, but injuries and inertia could take their toll.


8.) Baltimore Ravens

I really like the layout of this team with the hiring of Greg Roman. They have built a roster that resembles a lot of what we saw with the Harbaugh-era 49ers, including Roman designing and scheming a workable run-heavy offense. It will be fun to watch for sure. The defense, despite some exoduses, shoudl still be very good, especially with what looks to be maybe the strongest secodnary in the league.


6.) Chicago Bears

If Mitch Trubisky takes a step further in becoming a more complete, settled, dependable QB, this may look low. But I have my doubts, and I also think losing Fangio will result in some drop-off in the NFL's best defense. Even had Fangio stayed, generally these awesome defenses just don't last multiple seasons, be it the 2017 Jags or Vikings last year, or the Broncos before that. Even if the Bears are tremendously talented everwhere, they probably won't cause 30 more takeaways. Again, it won't matter if Trubisky plays better.


Tier VIII - The "Top of the NFC" Trio

7.) Carolina Panthers

I'm assuming here that Cam Newton plays week 1. The Panthers are set-up to be a great team this year, but the lingering sense of Newton potentially getting hurt will always be there. Their switch to a 3-4 should be aided by guys like McCoy and Poe joining forces with Kawaan Short. DJ Moore should look to build off of a great rookie season. The line is better than it has been in years past. Certainly, on paper they are as good as the 15-1 2015 team - though the lingering sense that every dropback could spell doom never goes away.


6.) New Orleans Saints

The Saints should be about as good as last year, but my two biggest concerns are a potential regression in more injuries than last year's relatively healthy team, and a continued decline in Brees. I twasn't as drastic as Manning's 2014 season, but the drop in Brees's performance from abotu Week 1-13 and then from that point on was pretty jarring. He didn't cross 200 yards in three straight games (something almost unconscionable). Of course, maybe there was some injury that went away or some reason, but it does raise red flags.


5.) Los Angeles Rams

Just like the Saints, there is a sense of it all went too well for the Rams last year, keeping a bunch of loud voices in check. That said, they still have upside, be it more growth from Goff, better, more consistent, play from their defense. The Rams still have a loaded roster, and one thing I don't believe at all is this idea that they were solved by the Patriots. The Rams will react to that underssing. They have to.


Tier X - The "Andy Reid Lives" Duo

3.) Kansas City Chiefs

The defense may be slightly better, but the offense will almost assuredly be worse. They were revolutionary last year, but we've had revolutionary offenses before and there generally is some slippage - be it only 37 TDs from Mahomes, or whatever else. Losing Hunt will hurt, especially in the passing game. Keeping Hill was huge for them, despite how seedy that whole thing seems.


2.) Philadelphia Eagles

If Carson Wentz is the guy that started most of 2017, this is the best team in the NFL. Their OL is still great. Their receivers are sharp. Their TE depth is commendable. THe defensive line is still stout, and their secondary should get a boost with injured guys returning and joining the ones they uncovered last year. The Eagles are great, but if Wentz is the guy that played last year, or if he gets hurt again, it could go way worse.


Tier XI - The 'The Champs" Uno

1.) New England Patriots

Let's not talk about it ever.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.