Wednesday, July 18, 2018

MLB Musings at the Midpoint

= Are we really headed to an inevitable AL that features three 100+ win teams? The Red Sox, Yankees and Astros are all on pace. All three have underlying metrics that back up their case (though in, ironically, reverse order to theri actual win percentage). The Red Sox and Yankees still have to play each other, but they also have to play the laughable Orioles and some of the other AL drek as well. We had two 100+ win teams last year, but a league has never had three. If so, then you may make the argument that you are better off being the #2 seed, getting Cleveland, instead of a juggernaut in the ALDS.

= Can Mike Trout keep the streak going? Mike Trout has never not led the AL in WAR in a season that he was healthy for. Now, I believe by baseball-reference, Josh Donaldson edged him slightly in 2015, but by Fangraphs, and by the average of the two, he still had the edge. Trout had a huge lead in mid-June, on pace for a 13 or 14 win season, something truly unseen. But since then he had a "weak" last thirty days, and sees both Mookie Betts and Jose Ramirez pull even with him at 6.5 WAR. Both players are truly great, can easily keep their pace up - we may see a first, with three different position players in one league have 10+ WAR. Trout is still easily the best player in baseball, but when limiting it to just 2018, that isn't assured.

= Are the Nationals going to turn things around? We came into the season basically knowing who five division winners were (Houston, Cleveland, LA, Chicago and Washington), and then had to flip a coin between New York and Boston. Of course, it was likely one of them would slip, and while LA dealt with all sorts of injuries (and still will be missing Corey Seager), and the Cubs were looking up to Milwaukee for most of the year, they closed the 1st half strong and are in first place. Washington is in 3rd. The Braves are not going away. Bryce Harper has a 0.0 b-ref WAR. Max Scherzer is just one guy. They are a better team than their record, but 90 games have been banked. There is a real chance they are playing in the Wild Card game, or even missing the playoffs.

= With the recently closed Manny Machado trade, and the healthy return of Clayton Kershaw, who quietly has been really good since his return, the Dodgers may be in for a great second half. They crept past Arizona on the last day of the first half. They're now set-up with a top player at SS, and pitchers coming back healthy. They were wrecked to an impossible degree by injuries that first half, so it is really good to see them make it through and get healthy.

= Scherzer and Sale. Both guys have a shot at 300 K's (it seems almost inevitable with Scherzer). Both seem like shoo-in's for the Cy Young, especially with Verlander's soft end to the first half. Both pitchers are so fun to watch. In reality, let's add both Verlander and Cole from Houston, and Jacob DeGrom, and the healthy Noah Syndergaard, and the aforementioned Clayton Kershaw, and Trevor Bauer, and so many others to the list. The one reason I never understand the hate on strikeouts is watching great pitchers rack up K's and dominate teams is incredibly fun to watch. We haven't seen this level of power pitching across the board since 2001-2003.

= Can the Red Sox really keep this up? This year has basically been the exact opposite of last year, when every Red Sox hitter struggled - including Betts. Now, everyone is great, and JD Martinez has a .330 average and 80 RBIs. Theri pitching may kill them in October, but for now, this is a special lineup, filled with really fun players. If only they weren't in Boston. Contrast to the Yankees, who are waiting for Greg Bird to get back, and hoping Stanton starts hitting HRs (though I was surprised to see him at 130 OPS+). It's been a while since we had a truly great AL East race, and this one will be awesome.

= On the other end, likely at least one of the Phillies/Braves/Brewers will not make the playoffs, and I really hate that fact. All three teams have been such breaths of fresh air - even if all three teams feature some ex Astros succeeding - the worst offender being Mike Foltynewicz. The Phillies and Braves are honestly a year early, but both have such great futures. Getting to watch Ronald Acuna has been fun, but getting to watch Aaron Nola become a bonafide ace has been even better. With Milwaukee, they arrived a year early last year only to lose the division the last week. I love they proved themselves not a fluke, and are seeing smart buys like the Yelich trade pay off. There is a scenario, especially if the Nationals don't rally, that all three make it - and two may even play in the NLDS. I want to live in such a world.

= This baseball season has been great, even if the Astros have blown too many close games, and the Red Sox are the team threatening 110 wins, and the Cubs have a clear chance at a World Series. There's still some dreck, like Texas, and most of the AL Central, and the Orioles, who have fully gone past that nice 2012-2016 stretch, but on the whole, there's a great mix of 'super-teams' - some of which haven't been close to super - and good young upstarts. And we're just getting started in a way.

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.