Ok, that first round wasn't great. A lot of blowout games. Only four series got to a Game 6, and only one got to a Game 7, which saw that effing Boston team rip the hearts out of Toronto again. That all said, the first round fun died so all of us could enjoy what looks to be a great second round. Only one lower seed team won, the Sharks. We have what looks like four great series on paper.
Metro Division Title
(M1) Washington Capitals vs. (M2) Pittsburgh Penguins
State of the Teams: Well, well, well, we got round 3. It almost seems pre-ordained. The rest of the Metro helped out this year by not being as good as last year. The Caps got their first round scare, just like they did the last two years. The Penguins got there easily - just like the last two years. Anyway, for the first time, the Caps probably don't have expecatations. They are healthy, they are under the radar somewhat - not the President's Winner, just an ordinary good team. Might be nice to have a good Nicklas Backstrom in the playoffs for once as well. The Penguins? Well, they're here, ut they shouldn't have needed such lengths to beat the Flyers. The usuals were all great, but the defense was a disaster, and Matt Murray had by far the worst playoff series of his career. This will be a step up. the Capitals may be many things, but a defensive sieve like Philly is not one of them.
The Matchup: Call me simplistic, but I do think the series comes down to which of the two usually great goalies finds their game. Braden Holtby in theory came in and saved the day, but he too let in more soft goals than usual. I touched on Murray above. The teams themselves are fairly well matched, with the Pens offensive depth matched by the solid D of the Caps. The Capitals PP is great as always, and having a Backstrom with a pulse is a nice help this time. The Penguins penalty kill has to really step it up. We can say the Pens have the mental edge, but I do sense a more carefree attitude with this Capitals team, not having the pressure of a President's Trophy, and many pundits actually buying in that this year is their year.
The Pick: Call me crazy, call me stupid, I like the Caps. It has to happen this way, right? The year after they pulled all their chips in. Capitals in 7
Atlantic Division Title
(A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (A2) Boston Bruins
State of the Teams: The Lightning were the league's best team of the first half. Then struggled for a few months, including their previously Vezina-capable goalie going to shit. The Bruins were not hte team of the second half (that was Nashville), but they were the East's version. They ended the season one point apart. That one point was game #81 for both teams, one that might end up really telling - the Lightning hammered Boston, held onto the division, and seem to have catapulted from that moment. Vasilevsky found his form. The top guys all were great. JT Miller has been incredible on tha tline. Victor Hedman hasn't even broken out offensively yet - though he was incredible on defense. Alternatively, the Bruins nearly blew a 3-1 series lead, and Tukka Rask seemed eminently beatable. For all the momentum the Bruins gained in the second half, two weeks of playoffs, including a nice extended break for Tampa, seemed to reverse it all.
The Matchup: The Bruins were arguably the surprise of the league, rising from wild card fodder to a dominant team, but the glass slipper seemed to come off late in the year as they blew the Atlantic Division, and then nearly lost to Toronto. They also just don't match up well. Their lack of team speed will be sorely exposed, and while they have a slight size advantage, the Lightning have done well to bulk up - having Thor Himself in Hedman helps. The Lightning cleaned up a lot of their defensive issues, and have mutiple active lines they can throw at the Bruins depth that usually gives Boston an edge - not here.
The Pick: I would like to pick Tampa in 5 - first of all, far enjoy their game to Boston, but the Bruins are too good to go away that easily. Still, the Lightning seemed to correct their ills late in the season, and if Vasilevsky continues the strong play this seems rather easy. Lightning in 6
Central Division Title
(C1) Nashville Predators vs. (C2) Winnipeg Jets
The State of the Teams: This is the matchup every hockey purist has been waiting for. Two excellent teams two fun teams; two great crowds; two great atmospheres. i want this series to go 11 games. I don't want either to lose. I'll join the chorus of people claiming this is the real Western Conference Finals. I want all of it. The Jets were great in the first round, and got their feet wet in the process. Laine was great, as always, but the real revelation was how much their defense controlled the pace. The Preds were actually a little disappointing, getting more issues from Colorado than what was called for. That said, the defense is still amazing, the offense is still incredibly deep - though it would be good if Kyle Turris steps up. ''
The Matchup: Again, hard to really break this down. Both teams are great. Winnipeg's offense is slightly better. Nashville's D and goalie are slightly better - though Rinne has a habit of "tiring" late in the season. The Jets power play is incredible, and the Panthers took a few too many penalties in the first round, so that scares me, I do think though that defense does more often than not win out here, and the incredible puck possession of Nashville's D can do wonders against a team that doesn't push as much as normal.
The Pick: I'm going to pick this to go seven - only partially because I want it to go seven. Nashville I think is slightly better, slightly more safe at back and in net (hard to fully trust Holleybuck - no matter how good he's been this year). Predators in 7
Pacific Division Title
(P1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. (P3) San Jose Sharks
The State of the Teams: Oh, Golden Knights. How is this still happening? Actually, it is happening because that team is fairly good. They can roll four lines, have six adequate D-men, if no true star, and a healthy, locked-in Marc Andre Fleury. Honestly, they are a very good team. For the Sharks, it truly is commendable how well they've done to pivot away from the Thornton / Marleau era, and doing it by not just giving the reins to Couture and Pavelski - instead bringing in guys like Evander Kane, who was great. The blue-line has always been nice, and if they get Thornton back they can really start cooking.
The Matchup: Speed often wins in the playoffs, but there is no real difference here. The Sharks have more 'experience', but then again they too are a fairly young team. I give an edge to the Sharks because I just can't imagine an expansion team making hockey's final four in their first season, but there's really no specific reason to think they can't do it. Call it trust. Call it East Coast bias with me not really having a good opinion on either team. I just think the biggest edge the Knights had in the first round was overall speed which will not be a real edge against San Jose.
The Pick: Sharks in 6
Metro Division Title
(M1) Washington Capitals vs. (M2) Pittsburgh Penguins
State of the Teams: Well, well, well, we got round 3. It almost seems pre-ordained. The rest of the Metro helped out this year by not being as good as last year. The Caps got their first round scare, just like they did the last two years. The Penguins got there easily - just like the last two years. Anyway, for the first time, the Caps probably don't have expecatations. They are healthy, they are under the radar somewhat - not the President's Winner, just an ordinary good team. Might be nice to have a good Nicklas Backstrom in the playoffs for once as well. The Penguins? Well, they're here, ut they shouldn't have needed such lengths to beat the Flyers. The usuals were all great, but the defense was a disaster, and Matt Murray had by far the worst playoff series of his career. This will be a step up. the Capitals may be many things, but a defensive sieve like Philly is not one of them.
The Matchup: Call me simplistic, but I do think the series comes down to which of the two usually great goalies finds their game. Braden Holtby in theory came in and saved the day, but he too let in more soft goals than usual. I touched on Murray above. The teams themselves are fairly well matched, with the Pens offensive depth matched by the solid D of the Caps. The Capitals PP is great as always, and having a Backstrom with a pulse is a nice help this time. The Penguins penalty kill has to really step it up. We can say the Pens have the mental edge, but I do sense a more carefree attitude with this Capitals team, not having the pressure of a President's Trophy, and many pundits actually buying in that this year is their year.
The Pick: Call me crazy, call me stupid, I like the Caps. It has to happen this way, right? The year after they pulled all their chips in. Capitals in 7
Atlantic Division Title
(A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. (A2) Boston Bruins
State of the Teams: The Lightning were the league's best team of the first half. Then struggled for a few months, including their previously Vezina-capable goalie going to shit. The Bruins were not hte team of the second half (that was Nashville), but they were the East's version. They ended the season one point apart. That one point was game #81 for both teams, one that might end up really telling - the Lightning hammered Boston, held onto the division, and seem to have catapulted from that moment. Vasilevsky found his form. The top guys all were great. JT Miller has been incredible on tha tline. Victor Hedman hasn't even broken out offensively yet - though he was incredible on defense. Alternatively, the Bruins nearly blew a 3-1 series lead, and Tukka Rask seemed eminently beatable. For all the momentum the Bruins gained in the second half, two weeks of playoffs, including a nice extended break for Tampa, seemed to reverse it all.
The Matchup: The Bruins were arguably the surprise of the league, rising from wild card fodder to a dominant team, but the glass slipper seemed to come off late in the year as they blew the Atlantic Division, and then nearly lost to Toronto. They also just don't match up well. Their lack of team speed will be sorely exposed, and while they have a slight size advantage, the Lightning have done well to bulk up - having Thor Himself in Hedman helps. The Lightning cleaned up a lot of their defensive issues, and have mutiple active lines they can throw at the Bruins depth that usually gives Boston an edge - not here.
The Pick: I would like to pick Tampa in 5 - first of all, far enjoy their game to Boston, but the Bruins are too good to go away that easily. Still, the Lightning seemed to correct their ills late in the season, and if Vasilevsky continues the strong play this seems rather easy. Lightning in 6
Central Division Title
(C1) Nashville Predators vs. (C2) Winnipeg Jets
The State of the Teams: This is the matchup every hockey purist has been waiting for. Two excellent teams two fun teams; two great crowds; two great atmospheres. i want this series to go 11 games. I don't want either to lose. I'll join the chorus of people claiming this is the real Western Conference Finals. I want all of it. The Jets were great in the first round, and got their feet wet in the process. Laine was great, as always, but the real revelation was how much their defense controlled the pace. The Preds were actually a little disappointing, getting more issues from Colorado than what was called for. That said, the defense is still amazing, the offense is still incredibly deep - though it would be good if Kyle Turris steps up. ''
The Matchup: Again, hard to really break this down. Both teams are great. Winnipeg's offense is slightly better. Nashville's D and goalie are slightly better - though Rinne has a habit of "tiring" late in the season. The Jets power play is incredible, and the Panthers took a few too many penalties in the first round, so that scares me, I do think though that defense does more often than not win out here, and the incredible puck possession of Nashville's D can do wonders against a team that doesn't push as much as normal.
The Pick: I'm going to pick this to go seven - only partially because I want it to go seven. Nashville I think is slightly better, slightly more safe at back and in net (hard to fully trust Holleybuck - no matter how good he's been this year). Predators in 7
Pacific Division Title
(P1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. (P3) San Jose Sharks
The State of the Teams: Oh, Golden Knights. How is this still happening? Actually, it is happening because that team is fairly good. They can roll four lines, have six adequate D-men, if no true star, and a healthy, locked-in Marc Andre Fleury. Honestly, they are a very good team. For the Sharks, it truly is commendable how well they've done to pivot away from the Thornton / Marleau era, and doing it by not just giving the reins to Couture and Pavelski - instead bringing in guys like Evander Kane, who was great. The blue-line has always been nice, and if they get Thornton back they can really start cooking.
The Matchup: Speed often wins in the playoffs, but there is no real difference here. The Sharks have more 'experience', but then again they too are a fairly young team. I give an edge to the Sharks because I just can't imagine an expansion team making hockey's final four in their first season, but there's really no specific reason to think they can't do it. Call it trust. Call it East Coast bias with me not really having a good opinion on either team. I just think the biggest edge the Knights had in the first round was overall speed which will not be a real edge against San Jose.
The Pick: Sharks in 6
