... The Astros defend a title
No big breakdown or much to this. Just a quick reminder my Boys won the World Series last year and get to tout that and lord that over every team all year long. Can't wait.
... Can Shohei Otani make the 2-way thing work?
The biggest story of the early part of the offseason has relatively disappointed to this point in spring training, not doing great from either side of the plate. Of course, it is spring training, and if there was a pitcher seen as a star with a bad spring training ERA, or a top hitter with a bad batting line, no one would care too much. That all said, it is a bit disappointing, but I can't imagine it really changes the Angels thinking. They are going to try this, and while I don't want Shohei to succeed too much (they are division rivals after all), I do want him to succeed enough to keep it going, to show that 2-way players are possible. It will be fascinating to see if the Angels pull the plug at any point, or if anything "rest" him from batting if his pitching performance is suffering. Honestly, the outcome I want to see is Shohei be a #2/#3 starter, and him bat .280/.330/.420, not good enough to hurt the Astros chances at a division title, but not bad enough to stop the experiment.
... How many home runs can the Yankees hit?
The Yankees are projected by Fangraphs to hit more home runs than any team ever. Projections usually aren't too outlandish, a median expectation with room on either side. Basically, there is a good chance based on this projection they blow the team home run record out of the water. And why not. They hit 241 last year, and they are replacing Brett Gardner and/or Matt Holiday (41 HR combined) with Giancarlo Stanton. Oh, and Greg Bird should be better in his 2nd season, and Gary Sanchez missed the first month. This team is ludicrous. That stadium plays it up even more. The Yankees may not even be the league's best offense, because a lot of their players are strikeout prone, but they will feel like the best offense no matter what. Injury is the only thing that may stand in their way from assaulting the record book.
... The next wave of prospects, Acuna and the Jr's.
The top three prospects, Ohtani aside, seem to have a decent consensus with Ronald Acuna (Braves) and then two Jr's of players I very much remember in their senior version, in Vladimir Guerrerro Jr., and Fernando Tatis, Jr. Acuna is 20. The Jrs are 19. Acuna seems like a lock to get up this season (and if not for the inanity of service time rules should have been an opening day starter, and Guerrerro and Tatis may see some action late in the year, each developed way beyond their age. Baseballs prospect scheme is a great way to sell hope, and even though I have no real affiliation or affection for the Braves, Blue Jays and Padres, but being a fan of a team who had to live through its prospects for a number of years, I will say it is still a fun exercise and lends a huge amount of fun enjoyment to otherwise dead baseball franchises.
This seems a bit counter to my Yankees point, but I do wonder if we'll see the home run numbers start retreating. I firmly believe a lot of the rise in home runs is due to a slight change in the baseball that if anything may have been unplanned. I think MLB knows this, and while I don't know if they actually think it is a negative, they may tinker back and make the HR levels return to normal. What's amazing is the overall offensive level in baseball hasn't really risen all that much if at all. The rise is only HRs. While some of this might be an optimization of launch angle, more seems to be driven by the ball. It is a bit ridiculous when career light-to-moderate hitters start launching 25-30 home runs. It definitely devalues the event. I'm not going to get on a soapbox and say the game is being ruined, and certainly I enjoyed Games 2 & 5 of the World Series no matter how many home runs were hit, but I also enjoyed Game 1, which was a taut 3-1 game. I do think we need more of the latter than the former.
... Which team makes the surprise run for those Wild Card spots?
It happens every year. Last year, it was the Twins, and both NL teams in Colorado and Arizona. This year? Who knows. There are some good candidates, but then yu wonder if the good candidates becme a bit too obvious. There's the Giants that brought in a handful of 2013 all stars who are still decent to match with a team full of players who should rebound. Or the Mets, who maybe could somehow get all their great pitchers healthy at the same time. Or the Royals with one last hurrah. Hell, I even heard some A's and Reds love out there. Nothing is too crazy. I don't know the last season that had no true surprise wild card (or in theory division winner) in the playoffs. What's amazing is because there are the core-7 "Super Teams" (Astros, Yankees, Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs) and a slew of teams that are more or less rebuilding (tanking), that middle is full of teams projected to win between 73-85 games. There's often variance there to easily swing any of them into playoff positioning.
... Max Scherzer's late HOF charge
We all know how great Kershaw is, but Max Scherzer has just as many Cy Young awards, winning in each of the last two seasons. Scherzer's career numbers are so interesting because this is a guy who didn't really do much until he was 25, but now, entering his age 33 season, he has 141 wins, a career 3.30 ERA, and 2,149 Ks over 1,897 innings. He has the hardware. The stats are off the charts. Scherzer has quietly put up what could easily be a HOF career, and seasons like this upcoming one are key to building up that resume. Of course, we have to say that the standards for starting pitchers seem absurdly high at the moment. A re-set will be needed, and hopefully Roy Halladay, sadly, can start that charge getting in with under 200 wins and without the conventional counting stats that were needed in the past. Back to Scherzer, he just had his best season, which is crazy, and has put up at least 230 Ks for six straight seasons. And it all seems so easy. It's amazing that the guy once known for having a condition where his eyes were different colors ended up being so good that is a fun fact lost in time.
... Surprises in Seattle (I actually think they'll be good)
The race for the second wild card spot in the AL seems to be the only real drama entering the season on the junior circuit - that and I guess who of Boston or New York wins the AL East. For the second wild card, it is a bit of a muddled mess, put let me posit Seattle for a moment. They are a team with a decent offense, with a still healthy and good Robbie Cano, next to Segura and Seager. I'm very curious also in their Dee Gordon experiment. I feel like King Felix may have a comeback year. Plus, the idea of Ichiro back in Seattle and making the playoffs with them for the first time since his rookie season is a thought that just makes me happy. Let me dream, for a minute.
... The Rays' 4-man rotation
I love when teams get creative, and nothing is more creative to me than three teams approaching the innings issues and slowdown in starting pitching workload in two separate but both fun ways. The Rangers and Angels have decided to go with six man rotations. The Rays, instead are going to a modified 4-man rotation, utilizing the increase in off days littered in the schedule and some opportunities to go full bullpenning to keep their arms fresh. The Rays approach is more fun. With the Rangers and Angels, 6-man rotations may be the future of baseball, but they're also boring, and are already brewing some discontent (Cole Hamels came out against the idea). The Rays, on the other hand, have what seems to be a genius idea. They'll throw Archer every fifth game, and throw their three other 'starters' the same, but most will get extra rest due to off-days. Then if there is a run of five straight games, they'll bullpen that fifth game. It is maximizing the use of your four best starters, and also bullpenning is probably no better or worse than throwing a 5th starter. Trust the Rays to be the first team to truly try this out. If it works, and they can keep Archer healthy and happy as the 'ace' to please, I can easily see other teams try this next year.
... The Mets health
Syndergaard's first game back he threw 99 and then flung a 92-mph slider by Jose Altuve. I want that Thor back. I want DeGrom healthy. I want all of them back. The Mets were such a scary looking team with that cost controlled rotation when they rode them to the 2015 World Series. We all know what's happened since, but there's still hope here. Of course, the Mets offense was also banged up last year with Cespedes and Conforto missing time at various points. The Mets should be healthy, and a healthy Mets team has a clear shot at a Wild Card berth. More than anything, it would be good to get a full season of Thor, and that pure filth he can throw. Add in an always good DeGrom, and at least 40% of the time the Mets will be can't watch.
... Cleveland's last great stand
What the Indians have done the last two years, and are set-up to do again this year, is just amazing. They get an easy division as an added bonus to make it fairly certain they'll make it back to the playoffs a third straight year. How much longer it continues past 2018 is cloudy, so it is best to enjoy this rennaissance while it lasts. The Indians pitching should once again be fantastic, with Kluber at the top, but even the other starters all capable and better than that fun to watch. The offense still has the beauty that is Francisco Lindor, and the nearly as beautiful Jose Ramirez as his infield mate. This really is a great time for middle-infield duos at the moment.
... How the humidor impacts Arizona
Years later, it doesn't seem like the Humidor did much for Colorado, but it will be an interesting experiment in a place where the reason the stadium is such a hitter's park is purely dry air, no elevation involved. The Diamondbacks actually may stand to gain a lot from this, because their pitching staff could be great. Grienke, odd Spring Training velocity drop aside, still projects to be great. The rest of the rotation returns four pitchers who had ERA+'s of 119 (Corbin), 166 (Robbie Ray), 137 (Tijuan Walker), and 142 (Zack Godley). Yes, the Diamondbacks were quietly one of the better pitching staffs in recent memories. If they can control home runs (which they didn't do last year), they could be special. Hopefully for them,
... the sad end of Pittsburgh and Baltimore
It's just sad writing about this. With the rise of super teams, comes also the end of the teams that made 2012-2016 pretty fun as well. The Pirates and Orioles both had their moments, both can feign that they are still competitive, and both should know that lure of competitiveness is a misleading. The Pirates started accepting their fate in earnest when they traded both Gerrit Cole and more shockingly and sadly Andrew McCutchen. The Orioles have not been so accepting of their fate, shown by the recent signing of Alex Cobb, which is a nice deal but a bit meaningless for a team that might be destined for 82-80 as an upside. Both teams have been so fun these recent years, and have filled those beautiful ballparks they have with so many great memories; it is sad those cathedrals may return to staid emptiness very soon.
... Mike Trout's revenge tour
Mike Trout was having his best season yet before he got hurt. He came back and wasn't as good, but still ended the season with 6 WAR, in the Top-5 of the AL, and still finished with a few down ballot MVP votes, but that season should have been so much more. Well, Trout's healthy and rested now, struck out just one time so far in Spring Training, and looks amazing. The Angels themselves have built up a nice little team now, especially with Ohtani, Justin Upton, Simmons, and Calhoun all around Trout as the centerpiece. Trout has a chance to have one of the best seven year stretches ever if he gets another 8-10 WAR this year, and I think him missing part of last year made people actually appreciate him even more.
... Clayton Kershaw, now and forever
Mike Trout may be a better hitter than Kershaw is a pitcher (even if not, it is arguable), but being a starting pitcher, Kershaw's everlasting brilliance just feels more prominent and more enjoyable. Watching him pitch is one of the great joys. That brilliant curveball, one of the great pitchers of our lifetime, and the suddenly masterful changeup. His brilliant command, pinpointing corner after corner. I truly hope he doesn't get hurt again this year. He deserves a fourth Cy Young award, another brilliant season, and a ring at some point. Here's hoping 2018 is another memorable Kershaw year for the best pitcher I've ever seen.
No big breakdown or much to this. Just a quick reminder my Boys won the World Series last year and get to tout that and lord that over every team all year long. Can't wait.
... Can Shohei Otani make the 2-way thing work?
The biggest story of the early part of the offseason has relatively disappointed to this point in spring training, not doing great from either side of the plate. Of course, it is spring training, and if there was a pitcher seen as a star with a bad spring training ERA, or a top hitter with a bad batting line, no one would care too much. That all said, it is a bit disappointing, but I can't imagine it really changes the Angels thinking. They are going to try this, and while I don't want Shohei to succeed too much (they are division rivals after all), I do want him to succeed enough to keep it going, to show that 2-way players are possible. It will be fascinating to see if the Angels pull the plug at any point, or if anything "rest" him from batting if his pitching performance is suffering. Honestly, the outcome I want to see is Shohei be a #2/#3 starter, and him bat .280/.330/.420, not good enough to hurt the Astros chances at a division title, but not bad enough to stop the experiment.
... How many home runs can the Yankees hit?
The Yankees are projected by Fangraphs to hit more home runs than any team ever. Projections usually aren't too outlandish, a median expectation with room on either side. Basically, there is a good chance based on this projection they blow the team home run record out of the water. And why not. They hit 241 last year, and they are replacing Brett Gardner and/or Matt Holiday (41 HR combined) with Giancarlo Stanton. Oh, and Greg Bird should be better in his 2nd season, and Gary Sanchez missed the first month. This team is ludicrous. That stadium plays it up even more. The Yankees may not even be the league's best offense, because a lot of their players are strikeout prone, but they will feel like the best offense no matter what. Injury is the only thing that may stand in their way from assaulting the record book.
... The next wave of prospects, Acuna and the Jr's.
The top three prospects, Ohtani aside, seem to have a decent consensus with Ronald Acuna (Braves) and then two Jr's of players I very much remember in their senior version, in Vladimir Guerrerro Jr., and Fernando Tatis, Jr. Acuna is 20. The Jrs are 19. Acuna seems like a lock to get up this season (and if not for the inanity of service time rules should have been an opening day starter, and Guerrerro and Tatis may see some action late in the year, each developed way beyond their age. Baseballs prospect scheme is a great way to sell hope, and even though I have no real affiliation or affection for the Braves, Blue Jays and Padres, but being a fan of a team who had to live through its prospects for a number of years, I will say it is still a fun exercise and lends a huge amount of fun enjoyment to otherwise dead baseball franchises.
... Can Home Runs go back to normal?
This seems a bit counter to my Yankees point, but I do wonder if we'll see the home run numbers start retreating. I firmly believe a lot of the rise in home runs is due to a slight change in the baseball that if anything may have been unplanned. I think MLB knows this, and while I don't know if they actually think it is a negative, they may tinker back and make the HR levels return to normal. What's amazing is the overall offensive level in baseball hasn't really risen all that much if at all. The rise is only HRs. While some of this might be an optimization of launch angle, more seems to be driven by the ball. It is a bit ridiculous when career light-to-moderate hitters start launching 25-30 home runs. It definitely devalues the event. I'm not going to get on a soapbox and say the game is being ruined, and certainly I enjoyed Games 2 & 5 of the World Series no matter how many home runs were hit, but I also enjoyed Game 1, which was a taut 3-1 game. I do think we need more of the latter than the former.
... Which team makes the surprise run for those Wild Card spots?
It happens every year. Last year, it was the Twins, and both NL teams in Colorado and Arizona. This year? Who knows. There are some good candidates, but then yu wonder if the good candidates becme a bit too obvious. There's the Giants that brought in a handful of 2013 all stars who are still decent to match with a team full of players who should rebound. Or the Mets, who maybe could somehow get all their great pitchers healthy at the same time. Or the Royals with one last hurrah. Hell, I even heard some A's and Reds love out there. Nothing is too crazy. I don't know the last season that had no true surprise wild card (or in theory division winner) in the playoffs. What's amazing is because there are the core-7 "Super Teams" (Astros, Yankees, Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs) and a slew of teams that are more or less rebuilding (tanking), that middle is full of teams projected to win between 73-85 games. There's often variance there to easily swing any of them into playoff positioning.
... Max Scherzer's late HOF charge
We all know how great Kershaw is, but Max Scherzer has just as many Cy Young awards, winning in each of the last two seasons. Scherzer's career numbers are so interesting because this is a guy who didn't really do much until he was 25, but now, entering his age 33 season, he has 141 wins, a career 3.30 ERA, and 2,149 Ks over 1,897 innings. He has the hardware. The stats are off the charts. Scherzer has quietly put up what could easily be a HOF career, and seasons like this upcoming one are key to building up that resume. Of course, we have to say that the standards for starting pitchers seem absurdly high at the moment. A re-set will be needed, and hopefully Roy Halladay, sadly, can start that charge getting in with under 200 wins and without the conventional counting stats that were needed in the past. Back to Scherzer, he just had his best season, which is crazy, and has put up at least 230 Ks for six straight seasons. And it all seems so easy. It's amazing that the guy once known for having a condition where his eyes were different colors ended up being so good that is a fun fact lost in time.
... Surprises in Seattle (I actually think they'll be good)
The race for the second wild card spot in the AL seems to be the only real drama entering the season on the junior circuit - that and I guess who of Boston or New York wins the AL East. For the second wild card, it is a bit of a muddled mess, put let me posit Seattle for a moment. They are a team with a decent offense, with a still healthy and good Robbie Cano, next to Segura and Seager. I'm very curious also in their Dee Gordon experiment. I feel like King Felix may have a comeback year. Plus, the idea of Ichiro back in Seattle and making the playoffs with them for the first time since his rookie season is a thought that just makes me happy. Let me dream, for a minute.
... The Rays' 4-man rotation
I love when teams get creative, and nothing is more creative to me than three teams approaching the innings issues and slowdown in starting pitching workload in two separate but both fun ways. The Rangers and Angels have decided to go with six man rotations. The Rays, instead are going to a modified 4-man rotation, utilizing the increase in off days littered in the schedule and some opportunities to go full bullpenning to keep their arms fresh. The Rays approach is more fun. With the Rangers and Angels, 6-man rotations may be the future of baseball, but they're also boring, and are already brewing some discontent (Cole Hamels came out against the idea). The Rays, on the other hand, have what seems to be a genius idea. They'll throw Archer every fifth game, and throw their three other 'starters' the same, but most will get extra rest due to off-days. Then if there is a run of five straight games, they'll bullpen that fifth game. It is maximizing the use of your four best starters, and also bullpenning is probably no better or worse than throwing a 5th starter. Trust the Rays to be the first team to truly try this out. If it works, and they can keep Archer healthy and happy as the 'ace' to please, I can easily see other teams try this next year.
... The Mets health
Syndergaard's first game back he threw 99 and then flung a 92-mph slider by Jose Altuve. I want that Thor back. I want DeGrom healthy. I want all of them back. The Mets were such a scary looking team with that cost controlled rotation when they rode them to the 2015 World Series. We all know what's happened since, but there's still hope here. Of course, the Mets offense was also banged up last year with Cespedes and Conforto missing time at various points. The Mets should be healthy, and a healthy Mets team has a clear shot at a Wild Card berth. More than anything, it would be good to get a full season of Thor, and that pure filth he can throw. Add in an always good DeGrom, and at least 40% of the time the Mets will be can't watch.
... Cleveland's last great stand
What the Indians have done the last two years, and are set-up to do again this year, is just amazing. They get an easy division as an added bonus to make it fairly certain they'll make it back to the playoffs a third straight year. How much longer it continues past 2018 is cloudy, so it is best to enjoy this rennaissance while it lasts. The Indians pitching should once again be fantastic, with Kluber at the top, but even the other starters all capable and better than that fun to watch. The offense still has the beauty that is Francisco Lindor, and the nearly as beautiful Jose Ramirez as his infield mate. This really is a great time for middle-infield duos at the moment.
... How the humidor impacts Arizona
Years later, it doesn't seem like the Humidor did much for Colorado, but it will be an interesting experiment in a place where the reason the stadium is such a hitter's park is purely dry air, no elevation involved. The Diamondbacks actually may stand to gain a lot from this, because their pitching staff could be great. Grienke, odd Spring Training velocity drop aside, still projects to be great. The rest of the rotation returns four pitchers who had ERA+'s of 119 (Corbin), 166 (Robbie Ray), 137 (Tijuan Walker), and 142 (Zack Godley). Yes, the Diamondbacks were quietly one of the better pitching staffs in recent memories. If they can control home runs (which they didn't do last year), they could be special. Hopefully for them,
... the sad end of Pittsburgh and Baltimore
It's just sad writing about this. With the rise of super teams, comes also the end of the teams that made 2012-2016 pretty fun as well. The Pirates and Orioles both had their moments, both can feign that they are still competitive, and both should know that lure of competitiveness is a misleading. The Pirates started accepting their fate in earnest when they traded both Gerrit Cole and more shockingly and sadly Andrew McCutchen. The Orioles have not been so accepting of their fate, shown by the recent signing of Alex Cobb, which is a nice deal but a bit meaningless for a team that might be destined for 82-80 as an upside. Both teams have been so fun these recent years, and have filled those beautiful ballparks they have with so many great memories; it is sad those cathedrals may return to staid emptiness very soon.
... Mike Trout's revenge tour
Mike Trout was having his best season yet before he got hurt. He came back and wasn't as good, but still ended the season with 6 WAR, in the Top-5 of the AL, and still finished with a few down ballot MVP votes, but that season should have been so much more. Well, Trout's healthy and rested now, struck out just one time so far in Spring Training, and looks amazing. The Angels themselves have built up a nice little team now, especially with Ohtani, Justin Upton, Simmons, and Calhoun all around Trout as the centerpiece. Trout has a chance to have one of the best seven year stretches ever if he gets another 8-10 WAR this year, and I think him missing part of last year made people actually appreciate him even more.
... Clayton Kershaw, now and forever
Mike Trout may be a better hitter than Kershaw is a pitcher (even if not, it is arguable), but being a starting pitcher, Kershaw's everlasting brilliance just feels more prominent and more enjoyable. Watching him pitch is one of the great joys. That brilliant curveball, one of the great pitchers of our lifetime, and the suddenly masterful changeup. His brilliant command, pinpointing corner after corner. I truly hope he doesn't get hurt again this year. He deserves a fourth Cy Young award, another brilliant season, and a ring at some point. Here's hoping 2018 is another memorable Kershaw year for the best pitcher I've ever seen.
