Thursday, March 29, 2018
Monday, March 26, 2018
MLB 2018: 30 thoughts on the Season, Pr. 2
... Can the Astros work their magic on Gerritt Cole
Last year, the Astros signed a Pirates pitcher who had some decent stuff, had him re-jigger slightly, and turned him into a very capable #3 starter and the guy who shut the door in Game 7 of the World Series. Charlie Morton ended up exceeding expectations. Now the Astros get to try it again, but this time without someone who potentially has quite a bit more upside. Gerrit Colts was the #1 pick in the 2011 draft. He had an amazing 2015 season, but was just slightly above average the last two years. The stuff is all there, and the Astros have done a great job recently of taking damaged goods and turning them around. If they can run it back again with Cole, they might have a truly scary starting rotation.
... Strasburg's rise
Speaking of scary rotations, the Nationals best pitcher may not even be their guy who won the Cy Young award the last two seasons. Stephen Strasburg did the following in the second half: 12 Starts, 72 IP, 1.11 ERA, 82 Ks, WHIP of 0.85. Strasburg was a demon. He was even better in the playoffs with two dominant starts against the Cubs. Strasburg finally seems healthy, seems stable, and should do even better this season. His career is a strange one in that he had such outrageous hype it is hard to call him anything but a relative disappointment, but his actual seasons have been strong, and he seemed to put it all together last year. Despite being one of the 'superteams' there does seem to a bit of tension around the Nationals, probably in large part due to Harper's impending free agency, but with guys like Strasburg (and Scherzer, and Gio, and on and on), they still should shine from the mound.
... The Red Sox vs. Yankees
It's been a while since there was a real fun AL East race. I guess last year somewhat qualifies, but the Red Sox never seemed in too much jeopardy. But this year? It should be great. Both teams seem on paper better versions of the ones from last year, with the Sox getting much needed power into that lineup, and the Yankees getting even more power into theirs. I grew up on baseball in the early 00's and while there was nothing as overmarketed as the classic Sox Yanks games in 2003-2007, few rivalries actually delivered either. The best part right now, especially for a Boston hater like me (though not really regarding the Red Sox) is that the edge seems somewhat planted on the Yankees side of things. They got farther last year, got the bigger offseason acquisition, and now look set to add a major piece in the upcoming season. Oh, and they have the better farm system. NY is on the front foot at the moment.
... The Giants 2013 All Star Team
Watching the Giants last year was painful. In Spring, Bumgarner got hurt again and may miss a few months so that pain is continuing. That said, with the depressed state of the NL, the winnability of one of the Wild Card slots, and the acquisitions they made, there should at least be fun baseball in San Francisco. The idea of adding Evan Longoria and Andrew McCutcheon is a lot of fun, even if it is a few years late for both to actually make a meaningful difference. Then again, Longoria is only one year removed from a 127 OPS+ season, and McCutchen was at 121 OPS+ just this past year. The Giants, if they can get health from a few guys that were uncharacteristically down or hurt last year, have a clear path to .500, but what they really need is for the 2013 All Stars to still be good five years later.
... Ichiro in Seattle
Look, Ichiro is not good anymore. He hasn't really been good since 2012, though he was somewhat decent in 2016. Overall thought, him signing and going back to Seattle is purely a novelty play by both a franchise and a player who doesn't want to let go of the past. That said, sign me up immediately. Seeing Ichiro in Seattle just seems right. He may barely play, and when he does he will be a shell of the guy who left Seattle all those years back, but having him come home is just a great story for baseball. Ichiro is the most unique baseball player I've ever seen, and he was unconscionably good back in the day, and even if he just drums up memories rather than actual value, that's more than what Seattle has been given in recent years.
... Harper & Machado: Contract Year
No surprise here; the upcoming free agency of both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado will be a landmark moment for baseball. There is a very realistic chance we have the $400 million mark broken in American sports for the first time. This is such a rarity, a player entering free agency with still many years of prime performance ahead of time. Harper will be 26 in 2019, and Machado will be 26/27. These are not the ages of guys that hit the open market, with years of good performance already under their belt. Yes, Trout would get a contract blowing these two out of the water, but that's not the place we are in. With Harper and Machado, we are in an amazing moment in time, and their performance this year, especially if either has a truly outstanding season, could make even $500 million come into play.
... Can the Rockies pitching keep it up?
The 2017 Rockies were a strange team. They made the playoffs off the back of pitching, as their offense struggled. Of course, you have to adjust for Colorado to see these things, but essentially they were a pitching-first Rockies team. Their young pitchers are all back for 2018 too. Jon Gray is the star (25 years, 136 ERA+), but Kyle Freeland (24, 122), Tyler Chatwood (27, 107), Antonio Sanzatela (22, 107) and Tyler Anderson (207, 104) were all quite good and gave the Rockies something that they haven't ever seen before, young, cost controlled, successful pitching. Some of the more stats inclined people I've read seem to think a lot of it was smoke and mirrors apart from Jon Gray, but even then there is hope in Colordao for the first time in a long while. It will be very interesting to see if Freeland and Sanzatela, two of the more intriguing youngsters (apart from Gray) can keep it up in 2018.
... The sneaky FA champion Brewers
The Brewers were the NLs version of the Twins, a team that competed well before anyone expected them to. They couldn't hold off the Cubs for the entire season, but were competitive fairly deep into September. They had a lot of guys perform well, but few seemed to be having years they would be incapable of repeating. And of course now they add Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain to the mix, both still young players that can produce 3-5 WAR easily. The Brewers didn't land the one big pitcher that they somewhat desperately need (assuming Chase Anderson is not the next Roy Oswalt), but being to add good defense and contact hitting to a power-hungry lineup is a great start towards repeating the 2017 season for a team still a year or two away from when most people thought they would be competitive.
... Astros year after and the Cubs year after the year after
All we heard last offseason was how the Cubs were too goo, too stacked, to fall victim to the year after effect. Well, they did, swimming aimlessly to a .500 record in the first half of the season. They caught fire in teh second half, finished with 93 wins, but were still a disappointment compared to the perfect 2016 version. This offseason was the same, but with my Astros, again hailed as being too good to get complacent, to get tired, to believe in the hype, to do all the things that normally happen (as the narrative goes) to World Series champs. Obviously, I think the Astros are too good, but it will be interesting to see if the same thing happens. For the Cubs, with a trim Schwarber, and the addition of Yu Darvish, it will be interesting to see if they can find their 2016 joie de vivre again.
... Does the mound visit limit actually change anything?
So after much show was made of ways to improve pace of play, all that was actually implemented in 2018 is a strange limit of 6 mound visits that don't end in pitcher changes. What was interesting was the analysis showed few games actually have more than six. The ones that did that caused the stir were mostly these playoff games when Brian McCann went out every 3-5 pitches. I get that was mind-numbing at times, but it was also the effing World Series. I honestly don't see how this will make a real change on pace. But it will be interesting that first time a team forgets and runs out of mound visits. I fully expect a pitching clock to come by 2020 and start making actual meaningful Iimpact on pace.
... The wonder of bullpen cars, and will other teams follow 'Zona's lead?
Yes, the Diamondbacks are bringing back the bullpen car. It is a perfectly cute one too, with a Diamondbacks cap on the top, and a white baseball structure in the middle. It is 100% awesome. This is one of the greatest developments in recent seasons. I truly hope other teams take thsi forward and we get bullpen cars reintroduced across baseball. I have no idea if it makes it any faster. I don't understand how there is not a negative imapct on the playing field. But I care zero percent about either of those two things, just to get these great bullpen cars back in our lives. Long live the bullpen car.
... Correa, Seager, Lindor (but mainly Correa)
The 90's were ruled by shortstops, Messers Jeter, A-Rod and Nomar. The 2010s-2020s may be as well, with Correa, Lindor and Seager, all between 23-25 for this season. Lindor is the great fielder, whose power nicely spiked along with the rest of baseball. Seager and Correa are the more truly 5-tool gifted ones, and both have a chance to be truly special. Of course, my heart is with Carlos, a preternaturally gifted player that can be the next Harper/Machado mega-contract superstar. Seager is about 80-90% as good as Correa, and has a huge market to make a name for himself. Watching these three megastars grow together will truly be a great joy.
... Watching Joey Votto Hit
Slowly but surely, Votto has beaten down the haters and has started to get the credit and adulation he's long been due.
... Watching Byron Buxton and Andrelton Simmons field
... Watching the Astros, again
Kansas v. Duke; a Modern Classic
Through two weekends of March Madness, this tournament had it all. It of course had the legend of a 16 beating a 1, but it also had now the run of Loyola-Chicago, a handful of buzzer beaters or last second shots to win a game, big collapses, and great performances. The one thing it didn't have was a truly memorable game. It had memorable moments, but no stand out game. Well, cross that off the list.
What Duke and Kansas did was provide one of the best college basketball games I've seen in years. Now, sure if this happened in the Final Four it would be even more meaningful, but that was a brilliant game, matching two blue blood programs, two Hall of Fame coaches, a number of great players from upcoming high draft picks to legendary seniors. Sure, it helps when Duke loses, and Grayson Allen has a terrible game including missing the game-winning shot, and Kansas gets back to the final four to vindicate their great coach, but as Bill Self said, even if the outcome was reversed, that would have been a ridiculous game.
18 lead changes. 10 other ties. The entire game was played between an 11-point range, from Duke up 4 to Kansas up 7, and Kansas up 7 only happened twice, once early in the second half which Duke answered with a 7-2 run, and then at the very end after fouling. Most of the game was essentially played between Duke up 2 and Kansas up 4, that was basically hte entire second half. No team ever felt comfortable with the lead, but both teams felt comfortable in terms of their actual play, and that is what makes this game special.
There have been other nice games in this tournament, from Michigan's ridiculous win over Houston, or the first three Loyola wins, or even the Texas vs. Cincinnati game back in the first round. But a lot of those were plagued with misses and defensive struggles and crazy shots. This wasn't. This was college basketball nirvana.
The coaching was insane, especially with Bill Self. He's now apparently 12-4 in his last 16 games against Duke, UNC and Kentucky. He gets up for big games. He had a team that plays basically 7 guys, five of which are guards, and somehow had his team outrebound Duke by 15. His offense was perfectly constructed to hit through Duke's heretofore great zone. Their defense was creative, doubling Bagley over and over again the second he touched the ball, which took Duke a while to get used to, and even going to a triangle-and-2 for a few minutes. This was one of Bill Self's msaterpieces, and it was so well deserved.
The game itself flowed so well, with big shots after big shots. Grayson Allen did nothing, but both Jr's, and Marvin Bagley were great. For Kansas, Malik Newman was a man possessed, and Devonte Graham was on fire. Svi Mykhailuk's huge three to tie the game was such a ballsy shot, especially after missing two wide open threes previously. The ball movement by Kansas was special in OT, whizzing it around to Newman with almost Spurs-esque precision. It was rhapsodic.
Another small piece of the game that helped was that it was played in a basketball stadium. The NCAA has started to somewhat walk back the constant use of football stadiums which started to become normal for some of the regional finals, and having it in a normal basketball arena made it so much better. The energy was palpable, even if it was a decidedly pro-Kansas crowd. The Duke fans came to make noise, and there were no real moments where either team had case to boo - other than maybe the blocking foul called on Wendell Carter, Jr., to knock him out of the game.
March Madness is sold as a way to watch the cinderella sotries, the ridiculous madness in a 64-team bracket happening simultaneously, and the 2018 vintage had both in spades. But what makes a great tournament are those types of games, whether it be the 2016 final between Villanova and North Carolina, or the 2005 Final between the top two teams all year that year (Illinois, North Carolina) which capped a ridiculous tourney preceding it. For this year, it may end up being this one, a classic between two bluest of the blue blood programs fighting down to the death.
Saturday, March 24, 2018
MLB 2018: 30 Thoughts for the Season, Pt 1
... The Astros defend a title
No big breakdown or much to this. Just a quick reminder my Boys won the World Series last year and get to tout that and lord that over every team all year long. Can't wait.
... Can Shohei Otani make the 2-way thing work?
The biggest story of the early part of the offseason has relatively disappointed to this point in spring training, not doing great from either side of the plate. Of course, it is spring training, and if there was a pitcher seen as a star with a bad spring training ERA, or a top hitter with a bad batting line, no one would care too much. That all said, it is a bit disappointing, but I can't imagine it really changes the Angels thinking. They are going to try this, and while I don't want Shohei to succeed too much (they are division rivals after all), I do want him to succeed enough to keep it going, to show that 2-way players are possible. It will be fascinating to see if the Angels pull the plug at any point, or if anything "rest" him from batting if his pitching performance is suffering. Honestly, the outcome I want to see is Shohei be a #2/#3 starter, and him bat .280/.330/.420, not good enough to hurt the Astros chances at a division title, but not bad enough to stop the experiment.
... How many home runs can the Yankees hit?
The Yankees are projected by Fangraphs to hit more home runs than any team ever. Projections usually aren't too outlandish, a median expectation with room on either side. Basically, there is a good chance based on this projection they blow the team home run record out of the water. And why not. They hit 241 last year, and they are replacing Brett Gardner and/or Matt Holiday (41 HR combined) with Giancarlo Stanton. Oh, and Greg Bird should be better in his 2nd season, and Gary Sanchez missed the first month. This team is ludicrous. That stadium plays it up even more. The Yankees may not even be the league's best offense, because a lot of their players are strikeout prone, but they will feel like the best offense no matter what. Injury is the only thing that may stand in their way from assaulting the record book.
... The next wave of prospects, Acuna and the Jr's.
The top three prospects, Ohtani aside, seem to have a decent consensus with Ronald Acuna (Braves) and then two Jr's of players I very much remember in their senior version, in Vladimir Guerrerro Jr., and Fernando Tatis, Jr. Acuna is 20. The Jrs are 19. Acuna seems like a lock to get up this season (and if not for the inanity of service time rules should have been an opening day starter, and Guerrerro and Tatis may see some action late in the year, each developed way beyond their age. Baseballs prospect scheme is a great way to sell hope, and even though I have no real affiliation or affection for the Braves, Blue Jays and Padres, but being a fan of a team who had to live through its prospects for a number of years, I will say it is still a fun exercise and lends a huge amount of fun enjoyment to otherwise dead baseball franchises.
This seems a bit counter to my Yankees point, but I do wonder if we'll see the home run numbers start retreating. I firmly believe a lot of the rise in home runs is due to a slight change in the baseball that if anything may have been unplanned. I think MLB knows this, and while I don't know if they actually think it is a negative, they may tinker back and make the HR levels return to normal. What's amazing is the overall offensive level in baseball hasn't really risen all that much if at all. The rise is only HRs. While some of this might be an optimization of launch angle, more seems to be driven by the ball. It is a bit ridiculous when career light-to-moderate hitters start launching 25-30 home runs. It definitely devalues the event. I'm not going to get on a soapbox and say the game is being ruined, and certainly I enjoyed Games 2 & 5 of the World Series no matter how many home runs were hit, but I also enjoyed Game 1, which was a taut 3-1 game. I do think we need more of the latter than the former.
... Which team makes the surprise run for those Wild Card spots?
It happens every year. Last year, it was the Twins, and both NL teams in Colorado and Arizona. This year? Who knows. There are some good candidates, but then yu wonder if the good candidates becme a bit too obvious. There's the Giants that brought in a handful of 2013 all stars who are still decent to match with a team full of players who should rebound. Or the Mets, who maybe could somehow get all their great pitchers healthy at the same time. Or the Royals with one last hurrah. Hell, I even heard some A's and Reds love out there. Nothing is too crazy. I don't know the last season that had no true surprise wild card (or in theory division winner) in the playoffs. What's amazing is because there are the core-7 "Super Teams" (Astros, Yankees, Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs) and a slew of teams that are more or less rebuilding (tanking), that middle is full of teams projected to win between 73-85 games. There's often variance there to easily swing any of them into playoff positioning.
... Max Scherzer's late HOF charge
We all know how great Kershaw is, but Max Scherzer has just as many Cy Young awards, winning in each of the last two seasons. Scherzer's career numbers are so interesting because this is a guy who didn't really do much until he was 25, but now, entering his age 33 season, he has 141 wins, a career 3.30 ERA, and 2,149 Ks over 1,897 innings. He has the hardware. The stats are off the charts. Scherzer has quietly put up what could easily be a HOF career, and seasons like this upcoming one are key to building up that resume. Of course, we have to say that the standards for starting pitchers seem absurdly high at the moment. A re-set will be needed, and hopefully Roy Halladay, sadly, can start that charge getting in with under 200 wins and without the conventional counting stats that were needed in the past. Back to Scherzer, he just had his best season, which is crazy, and has put up at least 230 Ks for six straight seasons. And it all seems so easy. It's amazing that the guy once known for having a condition where his eyes were different colors ended up being so good that is a fun fact lost in time.
... Surprises in Seattle (I actually think they'll be good)
The race for the second wild card spot in the AL seems to be the only real drama entering the season on the junior circuit - that and I guess who of Boston or New York wins the AL East. For the second wild card, it is a bit of a muddled mess, put let me posit Seattle for a moment. They are a team with a decent offense, with a still healthy and good Robbie Cano, next to Segura and Seager. I'm very curious also in their Dee Gordon experiment. I feel like King Felix may have a comeback year. Plus, the idea of Ichiro back in Seattle and making the playoffs with them for the first time since his rookie season is a thought that just makes me happy. Let me dream, for a minute.
... The Rays' 4-man rotation
I love when teams get creative, and nothing is more creative to me than three teams approaching the innings issues and slowdown in starting pitching workload in two separate but both fun ways. The Rangers and Angels have decided to go with six man rotations. The Rays, instead are going to a modified 4-man rotation, utilizing the increase in off days littered in the schedule and some opportunities to go full bullpenning to keep their arms fresh. The Rays approach is more fun. With the Rangers and Angels, 6-man rotations may be the future of baseball, but they're also boring, and are already brewing some discontent (Cole Hamels came out against the idea). The Rays, on the other hand, have what seems to be a genius idea. They'll throw Archer every fifth game, and throw their three other 'starters' the same, but most will get extra rest due to off-days. Then if there is a run of five straight games, they'll bullpen that fifth game. It is maximizing the use of your four best starters, and also bullpenning is probably no better or worse than throwing a 5th starter. Trust the Rays to be the first team to truly try this out. If it works, and they can keep Archer healthy and happy as the 'ace' to please, I can easily see other teams try this next year.
... The Mets health
Syndergaard's first game back he threw 99 and then flung a 92-mph slider by Jose Altuve. I want that Thor back. I want DeGrom healthy. I want all of them back. The Mets were such a scary looking team with that cost controlled rotation when they rode them to the 2015 World Series. We all know what's happened since, but there's still hope here. Of course, the Mets offense was also banged up last year with Cespedes and Conforto missing time at various points. The Mets should be healthy, and a healthy Mets team has a clear shot at a Wild Card berth. More than anything, it would be good to get a full season of Thor, and that pure filth he can throw. Add in an always good DeGrom, and at least 40% of the time the Mets will be can't watch.
... Cleveland's last great stand
What the Indians have done the last two years, and are set-up to do again this year, is just amazing. They get an easy division as an added bonus to make it fairly certain they'll make it back to the playoffs a third straight year. How much longer it continues past 2018 is cloudy, so it is best to enjoy this rennaissance while it lasts. The Indians pitching should once again be fantastic, with Kluber at the top, but even the other starters all capable and better than that fun to watch. The offense still has the beauty that is Francisco Lindor, and the nearly as beautiful Jose Ramirez as his infield mate. This really is a great time for middle-infield duos at the moment.
... How the humidor impacts Arizona
Years later, it doesn't seem like the Humidor did much for Colorado, but it will be an interesting experiment in a place where the reason the stadium is such a hitter's park is purely dry air, no elevation involved. The Diamondbacks actually may stand to gain a lot from this, because their pitching staff could be great. Grienke, odd Spring Training velocity drop aside, still projects to be great. The rest of the rotation returns four pitchers who had ERA+'s of 119 (Corbin), 166 (Robbie Ray), 137 (Tijuan Walker), and 142 (Zack Godley). Yes, the Diamondbacks were quietly one of the better pitching staffs in recent memories. If they can control home runs (which they didn't do last year), they could be special. Hopefully for them,
... the sad end of Pittsburgh and Baltimore
It's just sad writing about this. With the rise of super teams, comes also the end of the teams that made 2012-2016 pretty fun as well. The Pirates and Orioles both had their moments, both can feign that they are still competitive, and both should know that lure of competitiveness is a misleading. The Pirates started accepting their fate in earnest when they traded both Gerrit Cole and more shockingly and sadly Andrew McCutchen. The Orioles have not been so accepting of their fate, shown by the recent signing of Alex Cobb, which is a nice deal but a bit meaningless for a team that might be destined for 82-80 as an upside. Both teams have been so fun these recent years, and have filled those beautiful ballparks they have with so many great memories; it is sad those cathedrals may return to staid emptiness very soon.
... Mike Trout's revenge tour
Mike Trout was having his best season yet before he got hurt. He came back and wasn't as good, but still ended the season with 6 WAR, in the Top-5 of the AL, and still finished with a few down ballot MVP votes, but that season should have been so much more. Well, Trout's healthy and rested now, struck out just one time so far in Spring Training, and looks amazing. The Angels themselves have built up a nice little team now, especially with Ohtani, Justin Upton, Simmons, and Calhoun all around Trout as the centerpiece. Trout has a chance to have one of the best seven year stretches ever if he gets another 8-10 WAR this year, and I think him missing part of last year made people actually appreciate him even more.
... Clayton Kershaw, now and forever
Mike Trout may be a better hitter than Kershaw is a pitcher (even if not, it is arguable), but being a starting pitcher, Kershaw's everlasting brilliance just feels more prominent and more enjoyable. Watching him pitch is one of the great joys. That brilliant curveball, one of the great pitchers of our lifetime, and the suddenly masterful changeup. His brilliant command, pinpointing corner after corner. I truly hope he doesn't get hurt again this year. He deserves a fourth Cy Young award, another brilliant season, and a ring at some point. Here's hoping 2018 is another memorable Kershaw year for the best pitcher I've ever seen.
No big breakdown or much to this. Just a quick reminder my Boys won the World Series last year and get to tout that and lord that over every team all year long. Can't wait.
... Can Shohei Otani make the 2-way thing work?
The biggest story of the early part of the offseason has relatively disappointed to this point in spring training, not doing great from either side of the plate. Of course, it is spring training, and if there was a pitcher seen as a star with a bad spring training ERA, or a top hitter with a bad batting line, no one would care too much. That all said, it is a bit disappointing, but I can't imagine it really changes the Angels thinking. They are going to try this, and while I don't want Shohei to succeed too much (they are division rivals after all), I do want him to succeed enough to keep it going, to show that 2-way players are possible. It will be fascinating to see if the Angels pull the plug at any point, or if anything "rest" him from batting if his pitching performance is suffering. Honestly, the outcome I want to see is Shohei be a #2/#3 starter, and him bat .280/.330/.420, not good enough to hurt the Astros chances at a division title, but not bad enough to stop the experiment.
... How many home runs can the Yankees hit?
The Yankees are projected by Fangraphs to hit more home runs than any team ever. Projections usually aren't too outlandish, a median expectation with room on either side. Basically, there is a good chance based on this projection they blow the team home run record out of the water. And why not. They hit 241 last year, and they are replacing Brett Gardner and/or Matt Holiday (41 HR combined) with Giancarlo Stanton. Oh, and Greg Bird should be better in his 2nd season, and Gary Sanchez missed the first month. This team is ludicrous. That stadium plays it up even more. The Yankees may not even be the league's best offense, because a lot of their players are strikeout prone, but they will feel like the best offense no matter what. Injury is the only thing that may stand in their way from assaulting the record book.
... The next wave of prospects, Acuna and the Jr's.
The top three prospects, Ohtani aside, seem to have a decent consensus with Ronald Acuna (Braves) and then two Jr's of players I very much remember in their senior version, in Vladimir Guerrerro Jr., and Fernando Tatis, Jr. Acuna is 20. The Jrs are 19. Acuna seems like a lock to get up this season (and if not for the inanity of service time rules should have been an opening day starter, and Guerrerro and Tatis may see some action late in the year, each developed way beyond their age. Baseballs prospect scheme is a great way to sell hope, and even though I have no real affiliation or affection for the Braves, Blue Jays and Padres, but being a fan of a team who had to live through its prospects for a number of years, I will say it is still a fun exercise and lends a huge amount of fun enjoyment to otherwise dead baseball franchises.
... Can Home Runs go back to normal?
This seems a bit counter to my Yankees point, but I do wonder if we'll see the home run numbers start retreating. I firmly believe a lot of the rise in home runs is due to a slight change in the baseball that if anything may have been unplanned. I think MLB knows this, and while I don't know if they actually think it is a negative, they may tinker back and make the HR levels return to normal. What's amazing is the overall offensive level in baseball hasn't really risen all that much if at all. The rise is only HRs. While some of this might be an optimization of launch angle, more seems to be driven by the ball. It is a bit ridiculous when career light-to-moderate hitters start launching 25-30 home runs. It definitely devalues the event. I'm not going to get on a soapbox and say the game is being ruined, and certainly I enjoyed Games 2 & 5 of the World Series no matter how many home runs were hit, but I also enjoyed Game 1, which was a taut 3-1 game. I do think we need more of the latter than the former.
... Which team makes the surprise run for those Wild Card spots?
It happens every year. Last year, it was the Twins, and both NL teams in Colorado and Arizona. This year? Who knows. There are some good candidates, but then yu wonder if the good candidates becme a bit too obvious. There's the Giants that brought in a handful of 2013 all stars who are still decent to match with a team full of players who should rebound. Or the Mets, who maybe could somehow get all their great pitchers healthy at the same time. Or the Royals with one last hurrah. Hell, I even heard some A's and Reds love out there. Nothing is too crazy. I don't know the last season that had no true surprise wild card (or in theory division winner) in the playoffs. What's amazing is because there are the core-7 "Super Teams" (Astros, Yankees, Indians, Red Sox, Dodgers, Nationals, Cubs) and a slew of teams that are more or less rebuilding (tanking), that middle is full of teams projected to win between 73-85 games. There's often variance there to easily swing any of them into playoff positioning.
... Max Scherzer's late HOF charge
We all know how great Kershaw is, but Max Scherzer has just as many Cy Young awards, winning in each of the last two seasons. Scherzer's career numbers are so interesting because this is a guy who didn't really do much until he was 25, but now, entering his age 33 season, he has 141 wins, a career 3.30 ERA, and 2,149 Ks over 1,897 innings. He has the hardware. The stats are off the charts. Scherzer has quietly put up what could easily be a HOF career, and seasons like this upcoming one are key to building up that resume. Of course, we have to say that the standards for starting pitchers seem absurdly high at the moment. A re-set will be needed, and hopefully Roy Halladay, sadly, can start that charge getting in with under 200 wins and without the conventional counting stats that were needed in the past. Back to Scherzer, he just had his best season, which is crazy, and has put up at least 230 Ks for six straight seasons. And it all seems so easy. It's amazing that the guy once known for having a condition where his eyes were different colors ended up being so good that is a fun fact lost in time.
... Surprises in Seattle (I actually think they'll be good)
The race for the second wild card spot in the AL seems to be the only real drama entering the season on the junior circuit - that and I guess who of Boston or New York wins the AL East. For the second wild card, it is a bit of a muddled mess, put let me posit Seattle for a moment. They are a team with a decent offense, with a still healthy and good Robbie Cano, next to Segura and Seager. I'm very curious also in their Dee Gordon experiment. I feel like King Felix may have a comeback year. Plus, the idea of Ichiro back in Seattle and making the playoffs with them for the first time since his rookie season is a thought that just makes me happy. Let me dream, for a minute.
... The Rays' 4-man rotation
I love when teams get creative, and nothing is more creative to me than three teams approaching the innings issues and slowdown in starting pitching workload in two separate but both fun ways. The Rangers and Angels have decided to go with six man rotations. The Rays, instead are going to a modified 4-man rotation, utilizing the increase in off days littered in the schedule and some opportunities to go full bullpenning to keep their arms fresh. The Rays approach is more fun. With the Rangers and Angels, 6-man rotations may be the future of baseball, but they're also boring, and are already brewing some discontent (Cole Hamels came out against the idea). The Rays, on the other hand, have what seems to be a genius idea. They'll throw Archer every fifth game, and throw their three other 'starters' the same, but most will get extra rest due to off-days. Then if there is a run of five straight games, they'll bullpen that fifth game. It is maximizing the use of your four best starters, and also bullpenning is probably no better or worse than throwing a 5th starter. Trust the Rays to be the first team to truly try this out. If it works, and they can keep Archer healthy and happy as the 'ace' to please, I can easily see other teams try this next year.
... The Mets health
Syndergaard's first game back he threw 99 and then flung a 92-mph slider by Jose Altuve. I want that Thor back. I want DeGrom healthy. I want all of them back. The Mets were such a scary looking team with that cost controlled rotation when they rode them to the 2015 World Series. We all know what's happened since, but there's still hope here. Of course, the Mets offense was also banged up last year with Cespedes and Conforto missing time at various points. The Mets should be healthy, and a healthy Mets team has a clear shot at a Wild Card berth. More than anything, it would be good to get a full season of Thor, and that pure filth he can throw. Add in an always good DeGrom, and at least 40% of the time the Mets will be can't watch.
... Cleveland's last great stand
What the Indians have done the last two years, and are set-up to do again this year, is just amazing. They get an easy division as an added bonus to make it fairly certain they'll make it back to the playoffs a third straight year. How much longer it continues past 2018 is cloudy, so it is best to enjoy this rennaissance while it lasts. The Indians pitching should once again be fantastic, with Kluber at the top, but even the other starters all capable and better than that fun to watch. The offense still has the beauty that is Francisco Lindor, and the nearly as beautiful Jose Ramirez as his infield mate. This really is a great time for middle-infield duos at the moment.
... How the humidor impacts Arizona
Years later, it doesn't seem like the Humidor did much for Colorado, but it will be an interesting experiment in a place where the reason the stadium is such a hitter's park is purely dry air, no elevation involved. The Diamondbacks actually may stand to gain a lot from this, because their pitching staff could be great. Grienke, odd Spring Training velocity drop aside, still projects to be great. The rest of the rotation returns four pitchers who had ERA+'s of 119 (Corbin), 166 (Robbie Ray), 137 (Tijuan Walker), and 142 (Zack Godley). Yes, the Diamondbacks were quietly one of the better pitching staffs in recent memories. If they can control home runs (which they didn't do last year), they could be special. Hopefully for them,
... the sad end of Pittsburgh and Baltimore
It's just sad writing about this. With the rise of super teams, comes also the end of the teams that made 2012-2016 pretty fun as well. The Pirates and Orioles both had their moments, both can feign that they are still competitive, and both should know that lure of competitiveness is a misleading. The Pirates started accepting their fate in earnest when they traded both Gerrit Cole and more shockingly and sadly Andrew McCutchen. The Orioles have not been so accepting of their fate, shown by the recent signing of Alex Cobb, which is a nice deal but a bit meaningless for a team that might be destined for 82-80 as an upside. Both teams have been so fun these recent years, and have filled those beautiful ballparks they have with so many great memories; it is sad those cathedrals may return to staid emptiness very soon.
... Mike Trout's revenge tour
Mike Trout was having his best season yet before he got hurt. He came back and wasn't as good, but still ended the season with 6 WAR, in the Top-5 of the AL, and still finished with a few down ballot MVP votes, but that season should have been so much more. Well, Trout's healthy and rested now, struck out just one time so far in Spring Training, and looks amazing. The Angels themselves have built up a nice little team now, especially with Ohtani, Justin Upton, Simmons, and Calhoun all around Trout as the centerpiece. Trout has a chance to have one of the best seven year stretches ever if he gets another 8-10 WAR this year, and I think him missing part of last year made people actually appreciate him even more.
... Clayton Kershaw, now and forever
Mike Trout may be a better hitter than Kershaw is a pitcher (even if not, it is arguable), but being a starting pitcher, Kershaw's everlasting brilliance just feels more prominent and more enjoyable. Watching him pitch is one of the great joys. That brilliant curveball, one of the great pitchers of our lifetime, and the suddenly masterful changeup. His brilliant command, pinpointing corner after corner. I truly hope he doesn't get hurt again this year. He deserves a fourth Cy Young award, another brilliant season, and a ring at some point. Here's hoping 2018 is another memorable Kershaw year for the best pitcher I've ever seen.
Monday, March 19, 2018
On UMBC, just UMBC
For years, I remember hearing that it was somewhat inevitable that at some point a #16 seed would beat a #1 seed, that it was bound to happen. I mean, the talent difference between 16 & 1 is not that much larger than 15 & 2, and we saw a run of them since 2012, as it's happened four times since then, including twice in 2012.
Certainly, it was odd that it never had happened. And then it did; and not only did a #16 seed beat a #1 seed, they crushed them. They hung with them in the first half, ending tied 21-21, took an early lead in the second and never looked back. Virginia never made anything approaching a run all game. It was incredible. One of the last sports final frontiers has been reached, and they tore down that wall like nothing else.
I watched the game half-drunk at a New York bar filled with Syracuse fans cheering on their team during their game, but people slowly started directing their eyes to the one screen tucked in the corner end of the bar that was showing the Virginia game. At first it was 'Hey, that's cute, UMBC is tied at halftime.' Then it became 'Oh my God, they're up by 10+ deep into the second half.' At some point, it became 'You know what, this is going to happen!' and by then that one screen started to drown out the rest.
I've thought a lot about it. On the one hand, it is cool that a 16 finally won a game. Sure, it would have been more fun had it happen to a more blue-blood #1 than Virginia (there was a period on Thursday where it seemed like an over-seeded Penn might be able to do it to Kansas), but what was helpful was that this was no fluke, both in UMBC's ridiculous performance and the fact that UMBC very much deserved a #16 seed, and Virginia very much deserved the #1 overall seed.
Virginia was a great team all season long, losing just two games, going through the gauntlet of the ACC dropping just one, a 1-point loss to Virginia Tech in OT. The ACC sent four teams to the Sweet 16 (Duke, Syracuse, Clemson and Florida State). Virginia went a ridiculous 7-0 against those teams. Alas, none of it matters now.
Honestly, in my time watching sports, almost nothings seems so incredible unlikely as this. The only arena I can begin to compare this to is tennis, a similarly large bracketed tournament, with also similar displays of inequality even among its top 128. Maybe Sirgey Stakhovsky beating a gimpy Federer in Wimbledon 2013 in the 2nd round, or Rafael Nadal losing to Lukas Rosol in the same 2nd round in 2012? Maybe Novak Djokovic, when he was still the clear #1, losing to Denis Istomin in the 2nd round. That's probably the closest, but that is it.
This was more unlikely than Super Bowl XLII, or Super Bowl XXXVI, or any other football game. This is more unlikely than the 73-9 Warriors not winning the NBA Finals. Honestly, you could make the case that was more unlikely than the Miracle on Ice. People forget the USSR struggled at times in that tournament, and while they did humiliate the USA a few weeks before the start of the Winter Olympics, my guess is if Virginia played UMBC two weeks back they probably would have humiliated them too.
I think the last time I was this shocked about a result in a team sport was when Michigan lost to Appalachian State in the 2007 College Football opener. That may have been more stunning in theory, but that ended up being not so good a Michigan team, and that Appalachian State team had a few future pros on it. Still, I do have to think if this still was even more shocking.
It is so ingrained in your mind as a bracket-filler that #16s never come close to beating #1 seeds. I can even remember the few times it seemed remotely possible in recent years, with one of the most famous examples being in 2006, when UCONN struggled to put away Albany. Hell, as mentioned, Penn's brief 10-point lead in the first half was enough to make major headlines. The fact a team actually pulled it off, and dominated while doing so, is almost unconsciable.
Sunday, March 18, 2018
Rediscovering Beauty in March Madness
I don't know when I fully bought back into March Madness, and when I say bought back in I don't mean as a sporting spectacle, or a gauntlet of a tournament, but as one of the most entertaining spectacles in America. What I mean more is it is a perfect event to gather a country together, to make people take off work, to drink during the day, to going out late in the night. Any bar, any restaurant, in every city that has at least one TV will have it on. I watched parts of March Madness games from myriad locations these last few days, from an empty cubicle in a corner of an empty room, a bar in my home-town, multiple establishments in New York, and even two different apartments. No matter where, the games were on, and the energy was palpable. The more I realized, the more it made sense, March Madness is our country's World Cup, but we get to do it every year.
In reality it all makes sense. Given the largesse of the bracket, millions have some personal connection and deep rooting interest in one of the teams in the tournament, a connection that seems more familial than sporting. Even for those that don't, picking a team based on mascots, or size (David vs. Goliath) is all part of the fun. The tournament is a quick burst of energy, an excuse to care about sports during the day to give a reason for needing to skip work or school. Even like the World Cup, the most fun is the earlier rounds, when games are on all day, and when it winnows down to the Final 4, and actual sporting interests start to take more prominence, its effect gets lessened.
March Madness does a better job, regardless of whether TV ratings actually bear this out or not, of making people care about sports. The bracket such a perfect invention, the probabilities so outrageous that it allows people who know nothing do as well as those who follow the sport day in and day out for the four preceding months. I have a few close friends that not only went to schools that had reasonable to good basketball programs, but cared about the sport to follow the recruiting trail to breaking down each teams strengths and weaknesses. But they don't do any better in the brackets than I or anyone else does.
Yesterday coupled as St. Patrick's Day, so the day-drinking and "merriment" was anyway turned up to inconsciable levels in New York, but still every bar had the games on, easily switching back and forth between CBS, TNT and TBS to where each game was. The best part is as always, it's there more for background but at the end, if its a close game, and there's drama, which there always is, the game takes over. Yesterday's crazy Michigan game with an off-balance three at the gun to win was astonishing. The day before, with UMBC's incredible blowout of top seed Virginia, was enthralling even in a bar that was full of Syracuse fans cheering on their team's close win. Sports really can bring people together more than any other public entertainment experience.
This first weekend of March Madness is just a joyous celebration in every way. Games start at 12 and end at 1AM. Because of the high volume, there always seems to be 3-5 great games each day, especially in the first two days when there's always 4 games going on simultaneously and even if one is bad one of the other three will be great.
As said, the biggest, and ultimately best, difference between the World Cup and March Madness is one is each year, and the other is one in four. People may claim that there is value in the World Cup's scarcity, but in this case I disagree. Having March Madness each year almost adds to its appeal. It allows it to be less about the basketball and more about the fun, the annual explosion of sports, parties, revelry and fun.
In reality it all makes sense. Given the largesse of the bracket, millions have some personal connection and deep rooting interest in one of the teams in the tournament, a connection that seems more familial than sporting. Even for those that don't, picking a team based on mascots, or size (David vs. Goliath) is all part of the fun. The tournament is a quick burst of energy, an excuse to care about sports during the day to give a reason for needing to skip work or school. Even like the World Cup, the most fun is the earlier rounds, when games are on all day, and when it winnows down to the Final 4, and actual sporting interests start to take more prominence, its effect gets lessened.
March Madness does a better job, regardless of whether TV ratings actually bear this out or not, of making people care about sports. The bracket such a perfect invention, the probabilities so outrageous that it allows people who know nothing do as well as those who follow the sport day in and day out for the four preceding months. I have a few close friends that not only went to schools that had reasonable to good basketball programs, but cared about the sport to follow the recruiting trail to breaking down each teams strengths and weaknesses. But they don't do any better in the brackets than I or anyone else does.
Yesterday coupled as St. Patrick's Day, so the day-drinking and "merriment" was anyway turned up to inconsciable levels in New York, but still every bar had the games on, easily switching back and forth between CBS, TNT and TBS to where each game was. The best part is as always, it's there more for background but at the end, if its a close game, and there's drama, which there always is, the game takes over. Yesterday's crazy Michigan game with an off-balance three at the gun to win was astonishing. The day before, with UMBC's incredible blowout of top seed Virginia, was enthralling even in a bar that was full of Syracuse fans cheering on their team's close win. Sports really can bring people together more than any other public entertainment experience.
This first weekend of March Madness is just a joyous celebration in every way. Games start at 12 and end at 1AM. Because of the high volume, there always seems to be 3-5 great games each day, especially in the first two days when there's always 4 games going on simultaneously and even if one is bad one of the other three will be great.
As said, the biggest, and ultimately best, difference between the World Cup and March Madness is one is each year, and the other is one in four. People may claim that there is value in the World Cup's scarcity, but in this case I disagree. Having March Madness each year almost adds to its appeal. It allows it to be less about the basketball and more about the fun, the annual explosion of sports, parties, revelry and fun.
Thursday, March 8, 2018
The End of the Legion of Boom
My last entry in the 'Nostalgia Diaries' was the Seattle Seahawks' triumphant win over their rivals the San Francisco 49ers in the 2013 NFC Championship Game. At that moment, they were on top of the world, a status cemented when they humiliated Denver two weeks later in their 43-8 thrashing in Super Bowl XLVIII. They had a young QB who would become a superstar, but what made them great was a revolutionary defense with incredible talent at every level.
Five years later, they've traded Michael Bennett, are about to cut Richard Sherman and have officially moved on from the Legion of Boom era. They aren't done as a great team, because Russell Wilson has improved - necessary as he moved from a 3rd round rookie salary to a top-flight QB salary, but that distinct era of Seahawks football is over, and I can't stand it.
Maybe it's because those damn Patriots are still a great team, or that the Seahawks were a team that owned my QB back when he was playing, but the tear down of Seattle is hitting me hard. In some ways, the NFL came back to Seattle, with more teams matching the Seahawks strategy of big corners and cover-3 and pattern matching, culminating in a season where offense dropped to its lowest level since pre-2011 lockout (regardless of what transpired in the Super Bowl), but the Seahawks succeeded in a league built to beat it, and it was beautiful.
I don't know if I truly loved the Seahawks as much as I should, being a football fan with a natural leaning towards defense. It probably is because they had the audacity to beat Peyton in a Super Bowl, flexing every ounce of that defensive dominance. Also, they had the opposite of audacity to not beat New England a year later. If anything, their loss to New England was quietly the beginning of the end for the Seahawks dynasty, with two Divisional Round exits and a missed playoffs to follow.
When Pete Carroll and Co. built the Legion of Boom, starting in earnest in 2012, it was the greatest thing ever. An incredible defense, with ridiculous talent from a dominant front rotation to the best secondary in years. The hidden secret of the Seaawks was that front, with Michael Bennett (now traded to Philly), Cliff Avril, Red Bryant, Tony McDaniel and Co. leading the league's best pass rush in generating pressures in 2012-2014. The Linebackers, with KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner, were just as good. And of course the secondary. The real 'Legion of Boom' actually only played in 2012 and the first half of 2013, before Brandon Browner got popped for a PED suspension. They replaced Browner well with Maxwell then a cast of others, but the stars were Sherman and Thomas.
I still remember watching the 2013 Championship Game, the Seahawks incredible defense, and Richard Sherman's brash interview with Erin Andrews after the game. It was glorious, in retrospect. The best part of those Seahawks, and especially the guy just traded (Bennett) and the guy about the get cut (Sherman) was how smart they were. Bennett over time proved himself to be a bright, honest guy who spoke openly about mental health issues and then sociological ones. Sherman of course was a Stanford graduate, and more erudite than he ever gave off. They were smart, they were brash, and secretly I loved the Seahawks and should have loved them more.
I'm at a stage in my life where the strongest sports memories are all 5+ years old (Astros World Series Win excepted). All my favorite players I've rooted for have retired. The best games I've watched were all in the past. And losing the Seahawks, the L-O-B Seahawks, is losing another piece of that. Memories that seemed so recent have become more than half a decade in the past, and having direct ties to those days has become increasingly rare, and with the Seahawks latest moves, even more so. I never loved the Seahawks, but looking back I should have, it's worth it to hold on to any part of the past as possible.
Five years later, they've traded Michael Bennett, are about to cut Richard Sherman and have officially moved on from the Legion of Boom era. They aren't done as a great team, because Russell Wilson has improved - necessary as he moved from a 3rd round rookie salary to a top-flight QB salary, but that distinct era of Seahawks football is over, and I can't stand it.
Maybe it's because those damn Patriots are still a great team, or that the Seahawks were a team that owned my QB back when he was playing, but the tear down of Seattle is hitting me hard. In some ways, the NFL came back to Seattle, with more teams matching the Seahawks strategy of big corners and cover-3 and pattern matching, culminating in a season where offense dropped to its lowest level since pre-2011 lockout (regardless of what transpired in the Super Bowl), but the Seahawks succeeded in a league built to beat it, and it was beautiful.
I don't know if I truly loved the Seahawks as much as I should, being a football fan with a natural leaning towards defense. It probably is because they had the audacity to beat Peyton in a Super Bowl, flexing every ounce of that defensive dominance. Also, they had the opposite of audacity to not beat New England a year later. If anything, their loss to New England was quietly the beginning of the end for the Seahawks dynasty, with two Divisional Round exits and a missed playoffs to follow.
When Pete Carroll and Co. built the Legion of Boom, starting in earnest in 2012, it was the greatest thing ever. An incredible defense, with ridiculous talent from a dominant front rotation to the best secondary in years. The hidden secret of the Seaawks was that front, with Michael Bennett (now traded to Philly), Cliff Avril, Red Bryant, Tony McDaniel and Co. leading the league's best pass rush in generating pressures in 2012-2014. The Linebackers, with KJ Wright and Bobby Wagner, were just as good. And of course the secondary. The real 'Legion of Boom' actually only played in 2012 and the first half of 2013, before Brandon Browner got popped for a PED suspension. They replaced Browner well with Maxwell then a cast of others, but the stars were Sherman and Thomas.
I still remember watching the 2013 Championship Game, the Seahawks incredible defense, and Richard Sherman's brash interview with Erin Andrews after the game. It was glorious, in retrospect. The best part of those Seahawks, and especially the guy just traded (Bennett) and the guy about the get cut (Sherman) was how smart they were. Bennett over time proved himself to be a bright, honest guy who spoke openly about mental health issues and then sociological ones. Sherman of course was a Stanford graduate, and more erudite than he ever gave off. They were smart, they were brash, and secretly I loved the Seahawks and should have loved them more.
I'm at a stage in my life where the strongest sports memories are all 5+ years old (Astros World Series Win excepted). All my favorite players I've rooted for have retired. The best games I've watched were all in the past. And losing the Seahawks, the L-O-B Seahawks, is losing another piece of that. Memories that seemed so recent have become more than half a decade in the past, and having direct ties to those days has become increasingly rare, and with the Seahawks latest moves, even more so. I never loved the Seahawks, but looking back I should have, it's worth it to hold on to any part of the past as possible.
Monday, March 5, 2018
The End of the Spurs
Maybe it is a one year downturn, after a series of incredible years. Maybe it is a bump in the road, and they start their next assault on an otherworldly 50+ win season streak. Maybe Kawhi Leonard comes back healthy, motivated and most of all, happy, and none of this matters a year from now when they are challenging the Warriors and Rockets, instead of seeing if they can hang on to be first round catnip for those teams. But maybe none of that is true, and what we are seeing is real.
The Spurs won't win 50 games for a 19th(!) straight season. By the way, if not for the 1998-99 lockout shortening the season to just 50 games, it probably would be 21 straight. More startlingly though, there is a legitimate chance they miss the playoffs, coming into Monday, March 5th, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th place. More than the ending of the 50-win streak, and the potential to miss the playoffs, the bigger issues are larger, the Spurs, for the first time, seem a bit rudderless.
Years from now, if we need to draw a 'last moment of the Spurs dynasty' moment, it will be when Zaza Pachulia stepped under Kawhi Leonard on a 3-pointer in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. To that point, the Spurs were hammering the Warriors. They lost that game, the next three without Kawhi, and have had Leonard in action for just nine games since. They've also finally seen Tony Parker get old, LaMarcus Aldridge get injured, other players struggle, and Kawhi Leonard being mentally flighty after years of being the next Tim Duncan. These are not normal occurrences in San Antonio.
In a vacuum, the Spurs even being 36-27 with Leonard for just nine games, and numerous other injuries throughout the season is fairly remarkable. This is the lightest the roster has been, even with Leonard, in a number of years. This is probably in isolation one of Pop's best coaching jobs, but after so many years of plug-and-play to 56-67 wins, it seems so out of the blue to fail backwards towards the 45-48 win range. And more than that, it seems like Pop's lost control for of a narrative for the first time.
The Leonard situation is just bizarre in every way; here seemingly is a guy totally content in his situation, beloved by his team, his teammates and his fans, but somewhere in that perfect situation, imperfect cracks appeared and then broke wide open. How else to explain a player with the drive to become Finals MVP at 23 reportedly refusing to play after being medically cleared. How else to explain Popovich essentially outing him in a public presser? For years, the Spurs were a perfect franchise, who seamlessly went from one stoic, humble superstar in David Robinson, to an even better one in Duncan, and the line seemed to continue with Kawhi. It hasn't.
The Spurs will try to repair the relationship, and there still remains an outside chance Kawhi makes it back in time to save the season, but there seems to be an end point to that relationship. Whether it be his issues with management, or even the recent report that he's unhappy he isn't getting the type of shoe deal commensurrate with an All Pro and Top-5 player when healthy. Kawhi seems to want more than what the San Antonio life can offer him, which is not a bad desire, but one a bit out of the blue.
The Spurs dynasty was not long for the world. Parker was already benched earlier this year. Ginobili seemingly is about done. Pau Gasol aged before our eyes. The best player is an always moody LaMarcus Aldridge. Most of all Pop is 69, though his 'wokeness' and genius seems ageless, he is aged, he is grayed, he may not want to deal with a post-Kawhi world where he's piecing things together for the first time ever.
Again, just like we did with New England in 2014, or even earlier this season when they started 2-2, it is probably foolhardy to write off the Spurs. The idea of Pop and Kawhi breaking bread, everyone on the team singing Kumbaya, and them making the playoffs, even scaring a top seed Warriors or Rockets team, before a 59-23 season in 2018-19 is completely within the realm of possibility. But maybe the reverse is possible to, and if so, we may be witnessing the end of the greatest run of consistent brilliance in NBA history.
The Spurs won't win 50 games for a 19th(!) straight season. By the way, if not for the 1998-99 lockout shortening the season to just 50 games, it probably would be 21 straight. More startlingly though, there is a legitimate chance they miss the playoffs, coming into Monday, March 5th, just 1.5 games ahead of 9th place. More than the ending of the 50-win streak, and the potential to miss the playoffs, the bigger issues are larger, the Spurs, for the first time, seem a bit rudderless.
Years from now, if we need to draw a 'last moment of the Spurs dynasty' moment, it will be when Zaza Pachulia stepped under Kawhi Leonard on a 3-pointer in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals. To that point, the Spurs were hammering the Warriors. They lost that game, the next three without Kawhi, and have had Leonard in action for just nine games since. They've also finally seen Tony Parker get old, LaMarcus Aldridge get injured, other players struggle, and Kawhi Leonard being mentally flighty after years of being the next Tim Duncan. These are not normal occurrences in San Antonio.
In a vacuum, the Spurs even being 36-27 with Leonard for just nine games, and numerous other injuries throughout the season is fairly remarkable. This is the lightest the roster has been, even with Leonard, in a number of years. This is probably in isolation one of Pop's best coaching jobs, but after so many years of plug-and-play to 56-67 wins, it seems so out of the blue to fail backwards towards the 45-48 win range. And more than that, it seems like Pop's lost control for of a narrative for the first time.
The Leonard situation is just bizarre in every way; here seemingly is a guy totally content in his situation, beloved by his team, his teammates and his fans, but somewhere in that perfect situation, imperfect cracks appeared and then broke wide open. How else to explain a player with the drive to become Finals MVP at 23 reportedly refusing to play after being medically cleared. How else to explain Popovich essentially outing him in a public presser? For years, the Spurs were a perfect franchise, who seamlessly went from one stoic, humble superstar in David Robinson, to an even better one in Duncan, and the line seemed to continue with Kawhi. It hasn't.
The Spurs will try to repair the relationship, and there still remains an outside chance Kawhi makes it back in time to save the season, but there seems to be an end point to that relationship. Whether it be his issues with management, or even the recent report that he's unhappy he isn't getting the type of shoe deal commensurrate with an All Pro and Top-5 player when healthy. Kawhi seems to want more than what the San Antonio life can offer him, which is not a bad desire, but one a bit out of the blue.
The Spurs dynasty was not long for the world. Parker was already benched earlier this year. Ginobili seemingly is about done. Pau Gasol aged before our eyes. The best player is an always moody LaMarcus Aldridge. Most of all Pop is 69, though his 'wokeness' and genius seems ageless, he is aged, he is grayed, he may not want to deal with a post-Kawhi world where he's piecing things together for the first time ever.
Again, just like we did with New England in 2014, or even earlier this season when they started 2-2, it is probably foolhardy to write off the Spurs. The idea of Pop and Kawhi breaking bread, everyone on the team singing Kumbaya, and them making the playoffs, even scaring a top seed Warriors or Rockets team, before a 59-23 season in 2018-19 is completely within the realm of possibility. But maybe the reverse is possible to, and if so, we may be witnessing the end of the greatest run of consistent brilliance in NBA history.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)