AFC
Tier I - "2018 Can't Come Fast Enough"
16.) Cleveland Browns (0-14 = 207-362)
15.) Indianapolis Colts (3-11 = 225-368)
There is a simple path forward for both teams. For the Browns, actually use your top draft picks and get a QB. For the Colts, do whatever is necessary, including dark magic and praying to all the Gods, to ensure Andrew Luck is back healthy in 2018, and Chuck Pagano is not the guy on the sidelines. If both teams do these simple things, they might find themselves not in this category through 14 games in 2018 (the Browns probably will).
Tier II - "Playing Out the String"
14.) Houston Texans (4-10 = 319-380)
13.) Denver Broncos (5-9 = 254-328)
12.) New York Jets (5-9 = 285-342)
11.) Miami Dolphins (6-8 = 252-342)
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-9 = 233-305)
The AFC set of spoilers just seem so far less interesting and "spoiler-y" than the NFC counterparts. All these teams seem to alternate between frisky and completely packed in on a week to week basis, like the Jets getting shutout in Denver one week and playing the Saint tough the next. The highest ranked team is the one that has most clearly seemingly given up for the season, losing two games in a row by failing to show up and having Marvin Lewis retire. The Dolphins gave us all hope for a week, but returned to their 'worst somewhat close to .500 team in a long time" status they did so well to protect earlier in the season. Amazing how bad Jay Cutler looked a week after looking like 2010 Cutler. The Texans are just depressing. I realize they had some unfortunate injury luck, but that has been a common occurrence the last few years as well and they haven't gone away like this. Bill O'Brien may be able to convince ownership to throw that year out given the Watson and Watt injuries, but I'm not sure that is a prudent decision for them to make.
Tier III - The Wild Card Hopefuls
9.) Tennessee Titans (8-6 = 296-319)
8.) Oakland Raiders (6-8 = 281-324)
7.) Buffalo Bills (8-6 = 264-306)
6.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-7 = 311-255)
The AFC playoffs in reality have only one spot left to give. The only way that isn't the case is if Baltimore slips up against a really light closing schedule (IND, CIN). Assuming they don't, only one of these four will make it. The Raiders have close to no shot, but I want to quickly say how much they were robbed in that ludicrous game. Anyway, Tennessee was 8-4, but is staring 8-8 in the face. The Bills are staring 8-7 in the face with a trip to Foxboro coming up. The Chargers have the easiest remaining schedule (NYJ and OAK), but I can easily see a situation where they drop Week 17 to Oakland and ruin their chances. All I want really is the Titans to eff off and not make the playoffs. That team would be Wild Card Weekend roadkill. Luckily, the Jaguars have something to play for in Week 17 assuming they win this week and should not lay down against the Titans. Either way, I would welcome the Bills or Chargers in teh playoffs. This bad Tennessee team? Not so much.
Tier IV - Righting The Ship
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-6 = 359-302)
Big question right now is have the Chiefs righted the ship. That 1-6 stretch will always tick out like a sore thumb at the end of the season, but this recent 2-game stretch where losing either one would have put them in tricky situation in the division (instead they more or less locked it down assuming they can beat Miami this week) is a strong recovery. The offense has come back to life, even including their loss to the Jets in that. The Chiefs figure to be the #4 seed, and are staring down most likely Baltimore in the face. The defense will be key, can they sustain this 2-game good stretch of strong pass rush and pressure?
Tier V - Rounding Into Classic Form
4.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6 = 345-256)
The Ravens quietly are 4-1 in their last 5, with their loss being that blown game to Pittsburgh. Their offense has stabilized with Flacco stringing together a few good games in a row. Alex Collins is firmly entrenched as their #1. Essentially, they are rounding into form at just the right time. Their defense has always been great (entered the week #1 in DVOA), same with special teams. That offense was basically worst in the league for most of hte year, but even if they can be the 20th best offense, this is a scary playoff team.
Tier VI - The Contenders?
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3 = 344-278)
2.) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4 = 374-209)
I honestly think New England will get pushed in the AFC playoffs this year. Certainly more than last year, and the improvement of Pittsburgh and the ridiculous Jaguars are the key reasons why. They are opposites in some senses, with the Steelers having a great offense that almost survived the in-game loss of Antonio Brown to beat New England, and a defense trying to stabilize without Ryan Shazier. Other than having no ability to cover Gronk, they had a good game against Brady and the Pats, certainly better than their history against them. The Jaguars defense is ridiculous. Opposing QBs have a 65.2 rating against them, and they've sacked opposing QBs 51 times. What really should frighten teams is that offense. Bortles has a 110+ passer rating three straight games. The OL has been strong all year long. Either team could give NE a run in Foxboro. Will they?...
Tier VII - Who Else?
1.) New England Patriots (11-3 = 395-274)
Seriously, what other ways will the Patriots conjure up to win games before Brady finally ends this nightmare for all of us and retires? As for the game, the Patriots defense seems back to its porous self, but thankfully for them they got Gronk back.
NFC
Tier I - Turning to 2018
16.) New York Giants (2-12 = 228-355)
I'm still so intrigued by the Giants plan for next year. The biggest question is obviously the future of Eli, but it seems fairly certain they'll be in position to draft a top QB. Even if they manage to win some games, all the other 3-or-4-win teams around them have established or young QBs. I have to think the Giants do this, take advantage of this unexpected draft position, and ship Eli to Jacksonville or Arizona, like all close to retirees do.
Tier II - The 4-10 Spoilers
15.) Chicago Bears (4-10 = 234-294)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10 = 285-336)
13.) San Francisco 49ers (4-10 = 253-337)
Oddly, I feel way more positive about this group of three teams than the two to come that are 6-8. All three have QBs they should feel at least comfortable with going forward in Trubisky, Winston and Garrapollo(sp?). Winston needs mostly coaching to drill his Cutler-esque mechanics and footwork out of him, but I do think the desire is there. With Trubisky and Garrapollo, it is just more time. I guess for Mitch, getting rid of John Fox and actually getting a coach who will let him throw would help as well.
Tier III - Staring Towards the Long Abyss
12.) Washington Redskins (6-8 = 305-359)
11.) Arizona Cardinals (6-8 = 246-337)
We get the two veteran teams with significant questions at QB and not a lot of great places to turn. I'm starting to think the Redskins just pony up and re-sign Cousins, but there is a cieling with that team. The Redskins seem like a more competent version of the Shanahan era team, but they are still one that plays too often less than the sum of their parts. The Cardinals have some youth, but are relying a lot on aging players (Fitzgerland, various defenders) with minimal cap room. Even if Palmer retires, their options at QB are mostly re-treads or mid-1st round pick fliers. The latter actually may be more worth their time to reset the direction of the franchise going forward.
Tier IV - The Rodgers Miracle Ended Quickly
10.) Green Bay Packers (7-7 = 309-333)
The Packers didn't deserve Aaron Rodgers coming in like the Phoenix in the Chamber of Secrets and saving the day. Rodgers himself contributed to the loss looking plainly rusty and underthrowing two deep balls badly resulting in two of his three interceptions. The Packers are officially eliminated, and now the lens changes to if they fire McCarthy. If anyone can claim a mulligan given Rodgers' injury it is him, but I think there is a general apathy that has to be addressed in Green Bay.
Tier V - Four Teams, One Spot
9.) Detroit Lions (8-6 = 358-339)
8.) Seattle Seahawks (8-6 = 321-294)
7.) Dallas Cowboys (8-6 = 336-311)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (9-5 = 318-282)
Like the AFC, there are four teams still fighting for the sixth playoff spot. Assuming both New Orleans and Carolina win their respective games against the Buccaneers, they lock up playoff spots and let these four (all four being teams that made the playoffs last year) to fight for that last spot. If I'm one of the teams that could play them, I would welcome Detroit or Seattle at this point. Atlanta screams the scariest team (and if they win out they would win the division), but secretly it might be Dallas. With Zeke Elliott back this is a different team. They were a great team last year, had a good start this year, then went in a mess after the suspension finally hit. That's in the rear-view mirror now. Atlanta is in the clear driver's seat here with all them needing is one win, which they can somewhat give to themselves if they lose to New Orleans, clinching the division for the Saints (more or less) and then giving Carolina a chance to sit in Week 17.
Tier VI - The Great NFC South Race
5.) Carolina Panthers (10-4 = 331-286)
4.) New Orleans Saints (10-4 = 401-282)
So, there is a chance that if both of these teams lose to Atlanta that the Falcons steal the division, but what is more likely is the team to win the division is the one who beats Atlanta, understanding that if they both beat Atlanta, the Saints get it. This is also a very likely 1st round matchup as well, assuming the current Top-3 seeds take care of business. That is a shame, as I think both are worthy of winning on Wild Card Weekend and going forward. For Carolina, it is especially harsh given that they may match up better against the other three potential division winners than New Orleans.
Tier VII - The Emotional Toughness Quotient
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (12-2 = 438-279)
The Eagles showed a lot of mettle coming from 20-7 down. Sure some of it was luck, with the blocked kicks, but it was also that offense continuing to thrive fully with their backup QB. The scheme and skill positions are in such concert right now. What is worth focusing on is the defense. Will they have an emotional letdown with the loss of Wentz. If anything, the impact emotionally is felt there more - on offense the Wentz loss can be corrected in a literal sense by Foles playing well. That first game was not a good sign, but seeing the offense still flow, the team still win, may push them a bit to restore focus. One win in the last two games gives them Home Field Advantage as well.
Tier VIII - The Best Team in a Tough Spot
2.) Los Angeles Rams (10-4 = 438-272)
The Rams are, given Wentz's injury, the best team in the NFC, if not NFL to me. I realize Seattle is somewhat crippled at the moment, but that was harrowing in its dominance. They toyed with Seattle in Seattle, including a rushing TD on 3rd and 20. The defense is Top-5 in the NFL. The Special Teams is Top-2 in the NFL (only Baltimore comes close). Jared Goff is real in that he is good enough in the flow of that offense. It just hurts that they will likely have to go on the road twice to make it to a Super Bowl. That loss to Philadelphia will really hurt, a lose-lose for both teams given the Rams lost the game, and the Eagles lost their QB. The Rams DVOA through 14 games is in the Top-10 of all teams in the last 20 years. They probably aren't as good, but they have had a truly great season.
Tier IX - The Favorite?
1.) Minnesota Vikings (11-3 = 343-242)
Another team that established a sense of dominance. The Vikings mauled the Bengals, and are a win away against either the Packers or Bears (at home) from a 1st round bye. While they too are playing with their backup QB like the Eagles, Case Keenum has had a great year and has been there for a while now. The defense is getting healthy and playing great. They'll be at home, with added motivation, as unquantifiable as it may seem, of potentially playing the Super Bowl at home. I still question it because the thought of Case Keenum in a Super Bowl is still a bit shocking, but let's just realize how good he's been this year.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) New England Patriots = 13-3
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 13-3
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 12-4
4.) Kansas City Chiefs = 9-7
5.) Baltimore Ravens = 10-6
6.) Buffalo Bills = 9-7
NFC
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 13-3
2.) Minnesota Vikings = 13-3
3.) Los Angeles Rams = 12-4
4.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
5.) Carolina Panthers = 11-5
6.) Atlanta Falcons = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Cleveland Browns (0-14) @ Chicago Bears (4-10) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) New York Giants (2-12) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-8) (4:25 - FOX)
14.) Denver Broncos (5-9) @ Washington Redskins (6-8) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday, as we get only three games where no team has any shot at the playoffs. So happy there are only three here. The Browns have a winnable game, if the Bears effort from last week is any indication they may have checked out.
13.) Indianapolis Colts (3-11) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-6) (Sat - NFLN)
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) @ Carolina Panthers (10-4) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Detroit Lions (8-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-9) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-7) @ New York Jets (5-9) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "One Bad vs. One Good, Pt. 1" Saturday and Sunday as we need two sets of these given how many there are. The first set features four teams still in the Wild Card (division in Carolina's case), needing wins here to push them forward. The Ravens essentially clinch with a win on Saturday. The Panthers actually clinch. Both should happen. The Lions have a classic trap game here, same with the Chargers, who as it is can be eliminated this weekend even with a win.
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) @ Houston Texans (4-10) (Mon - NBC)
8.) Oakland Raiders (6-8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) (MNF - ESPN)
7.) Miami Dolphins (6-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-10) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "One Bad vs. One Good, Pt. 2" Sunday and Monday, as we have the second set. By the way, two Monday games because of Christmas! Sadly neither figures to be that competitive. The Eagles clinch HFA with a win. The Steelers somehow clinch nothing with a win given the Jaguars are one game behind - though that could be different if the Jags lose Sunday. The Chiefs clinch the division with a win.
5.) Minnesota Vikings (11-3) @ Green Bay Packers (7-7) (Sat - NBC)
4.) Los Angeles Rams (10-4) @ Tennessee Titans (8-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Elimination Upcoming" Saturday and Sunday, as... well actually since I ranked these, the Packers were eliminated with the Falcons winning on Monday. I'm interested to see if they even play him against Minnesota given that. The Vikings need that game also, to clinch a 1st round bye and get the chance to site people in Week 17. The Rams clinch the division with a win, and go one step further to the Titans not making the playoffs as they may somehow do despite being total 8-6 frauds.
3.) Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ New England Patriots (11-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Revenge tastes best on the scoreboard" Sunday, as the Bills get a chance to do a lot on one game. They need this game, as their clearest path to the playoffs involve them winning both games. they can still get in if they lose to New England and beat Miami, but for that needs the Titans to lose out. The Bills also get a chance to exact revenge after Gronk's dirty play two weeks ago. Hopefully they don't inflict literal revenge on Gronk because the league doesn't need that, but the best revenge for them is a win. Very unlikely, but not impossible given the Patriots have shown some chinks in their armor at home this year.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (8-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-6) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Better Elimination" Sunday, as we get a clear game where the loser can pack their bags for 2016. Technically, if the Falcons beat the Saints in the game still to come, the Seahawks and Cowboys are more or less done, but assuming that doesn't happen, this game gets really interesting. Also, I love the prospect of that battered Seahawks team looking for a pride performance against an Elliott-filled Cowboys team. Great game, even if before the season started we expected this to have more stakes than what it has now.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (9-5) @ New Orleans Saints (10-4) (1:00 - FOX)
The permutations and combinations in the NFC South is just amazing, even though the most likely scenario is all three make the playoffs. This game will be huge for one key reason, it clinches a playoff spot for Atlanta, and makes the Week 17 game of Carolina @ Atlanta for the division, and hte likely SNF game. At this point there is no great alternative outside that game for the season finale. The game itself should be great with both teams in decent form.
Tier I - "2018 Can't Come Fast Enough"
16.) Cleveland Browns (0-14 = 207-362)
15.) Indianapolis Colts (3-11 = 225-368)
There is a simple path forward for both teams. For the Browns, actually use your top draft picks and get a QB. For the Colts, do whatever is necessary, including dark magic and praying to all the Gods, to ensure Andrew Luck is back healthy in 2018, and Chuck Pagano is not the guy on the sidelines. If both teams do these simple things, they might find themselves not in this category through 14 games in 2018 (the Browns probably will).
Tier II - "Playing Out the String"
14.) Houston Texans (4-10 = 319-380)
13.) Denver Broncos (5-9 = 254-328)
12.) New York Jets (5-9 = 285-342)
11.) Miami Dolphins (6-8 = 252-342)
10.) Cincinnati Bengals (5-9 = 233-305)
The AFC set of spoilers just seem so far less interesting and "spoiler-y" than the NFC counterparts. All these teams seem to alternate between frisky and completely packed in on a week to week basis, like the Jets getting shutout in Denver one week and playing the Saint tough the next. The highest ranked team is the one that has most clearly seemingly given up for the season, losing two games in a row by failing to show up and having Marvin Lewis retire. The Dolphins gave us all hope for a week, but returned to their 'worst somewhat close to .500 team in a long time" status they did so well to protect earlier in the season. Amazing how bad Jay Cutler looked a week after looking like 2010 Cutler. The Texans are just depressing. I realize they had some unfortunate injury luck, but that has been a common occurrence the last few years as well and they haven't gone away like this. Bill O'Brien may be able to convince ownership to throw that year out given the Watson and Watt injuries, but I'm not sure that is a prudent decision for them to make.
Tier III - The Wild Card Hopefuls
9.) Tennessee Titans (8-6 = 296-319)
8.) Oakland Raiders (6-8 = 281-324)
7.) Buffalo Bills (8-6 = 264-306)
6.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-7 = 311-255)
The AFC playoffs in reality have only one spot left to give. The only way that isn't the case is if Baltimore slips up against a really light closing schedule (IND, CIN). Assuming they don't, only one of these four will make it. The Raiders have close to no shot, but I want to quickly say how much they were robbed in that ludicrous game. Anyway, Tennessee was 8-4, but is staring 8-8 in the face. The Bills are staring 8-7 in the face with a trip to Foxboro coming up. The Chargers have the easiest remaining schedule (NYJ and OAK), but I can easily see a situation where they drop Week 17 to Oakland and ruin their chances. All I want really is the Titans to eff off and not make the playoffs. That team would be Wild Card Weekend roadkill. Luckily, the Jaguars have something to play for in Week 17 assuming they win this week and should not lay down against the Titans. Either way, I would welcome the Bills or Chargers in teh playoffs. This bad Tennessee team? Not so much.
Tier IV - Righting The Ship
5.) Kansas City Chiefs (8-6 = 359-302)
Big question right now is have the Chiefs righted the ship. That 1-6 stretch will always tick out like a sore thumb at the end of the season, but this recent 2-game stretch where losing either one would have put them in tricky situation in the division (instead they more or less locked it down assuming they can beat Miami this week) is a strong recovery. The offense has come back to life, even including their loss to the Jets in that. The Chiefs figure to be the #4 seed, and are staring down most likely Baltimore in the face. The defense will be key, can they sustain this 2-game good stretch of strong pass rush and pressure?
Tier V - Rounding Into Classic Form
4.) Baltimore Ravens (8-6 = 345-256)
The Ravens quietly are 4-1 in their last 5, with their loss being that blown game to Pittsburgh. Their offense has stabilized with Flacco stringing together a few good games in a row. Alex Collins is firmly entrenched as their #1. Essentially, they are rounding into form at just the right time. Their defense has always been great (entered the week #1 in DVOA), same with special teams. That offense was basically worst in the league for most of hte year, but even if they can be the 20th best offense, this is a scary playoff team.
Tier VI - The Contenders?
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3 = 344-278)
2.) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4 = 374-209)
I honestly think New England will get pushed in the AFC playoffs this year. Certainly more than last year, and the improvement of Pittsburgh and the ridiculous Jaguars are the key reasons why. They are opposites in some senses, with the Steelers having a great offense that almost survived the in-game loss of Antonio Brown to beat New England, and a defense trying to stabilize without Ryan Shazier. Other than having no ability to cover Gronk, they had a good game against Brady and the Pats, certainly better than their history against them. The Jaguars defense is ridiculous. Opposing QBs have a 65.2 rating against them, and they've sacked opposing QBs 51 times. What really should frighten teams is that offense. Bortles has a 110+ passer rating three straight games. The OL has been strong all year long. Either team could give NE a run in Foxboro. Will they?...
Tier VII - Who Else?
1.) New England Patriots (11-3 = 395-274)
Seriously, what other ways will the Patriots conjure up to win games before Brady finally ends this nightmare for all of us and retires? As for the game, the Patriots defense seems back to its porous self, but thankfully for them they got Gronk back.
NFC
Tier I - Turning to 2018
16.) New York Giants (2-12 = 228-355)
I'm still so intrigued by the Giants plan for next year. The biggest question is obviously the future of Eli, but it seems fairly certain they'll be in position to draft a top QB. Even if they manage to win some games, all the other 3-or-4-win teams around them have established or young QBs. I have to think the Giants do this, take advantage of this unexpected draft position, and ship Eli to Jacksonville or Arizona, like all close to retirees do.
Tier II - The 4-10 Spoilers
15.) Chicago Bears (4-10 = 234-294)
14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10 = 285-336)
13.) San Francisco 49ers (4-10 = 253-337)
Oddly, I feel way more positive about this group of three teams than the two to come that are 6-8. All three have QBs they should feel at least comfortable with going forward in Trubisky, Winston and Garrapollo(sp?). Winston needs mostly coaching to drill his Cutler-esque mechanics and footwork out of him, but I do think the desire is there. With Trubisky and Garrapollo, it is just more time. I guess for Mitch, getting rid of John Fox and actually getting a coach who will let him throw would help as well.
Tier III - Staring Towards the Long Abyss
12.) Washington Redskins (6-8 = 305-359)
11.) Arizona Cardinals (6-8 = 246-337)
We get the two veteran teams with significant questions at QB and not a lot of great places to turn. I'm starting to think the Redskins just pony up and re-sign Cousins, but there is a cieling with that team. The Redskins seem like a more competent version of the Shanahan era team, but they are still one that plays too often less than the sum of their parts. The Cardinals have some youth, but are relying a lot on aging players (Fitzgerland, various defenders) with minimal cap room. Even if Palmer retires, their options at QB are mostly re-treads or mid-1st round pick fliers. The latter actually may be more worth their time to reset the direction of the franchise going forward.
Tier IV - The Rodgers Miracle Ended Quickly
10.) Green Bay Packers (7-7 = 309-333)
The Packers didn't deserve Aaron Rodgers coming in like the Phoenix in the Chamber of Secrets and saving the day. Rodgers himself contributed to the loss looking plainly rusty and underthrowing two deep balls badly resulting in two of his three interceptions. The Packers are officially eliminated, and now the lens changes to if they fire McCarthy. If anyone can claim a mulligan given Rodgers' injury it is him, but I think there is a general apathy that has to be addressed in Green Bay.
Tier V - Four Teams, One Spot
9.) Detroit Lions (8-6 = 358-339)
8.) Seattle Seahawks (8-6 = 321-294)
7.) Dallas Cowboys (8-6 = 336-311)
6.) Atlanta Falcons (9-5 = 318-282)
Like the AFC, there are four teams still fighting for the sixth playoff spot. Assuming both New Orleans and Carolina win their respective games against the Buccaneers, they lock up playoff spots and let these four (all four being teams that made the playoffs last year) to fight for that last spot. If I'm one of the teams that could play them, I would welcome Detroit or Seattle at this point. Atlanta screams the scariest team (and if they win out they would win the division), but secretly it might be Dallas. With Zeke Elliott back this is a different team. They were a great team last year, had a good start this year, then went in a mess after the suspension finally hit. That's in the rear-view mirror now. Atlanta is in the clear driver's seat here with all them needing is one win, which they can somewhat give to themselves if they lose to New Orleans, clinching the division for the Saints (more or less) and then giving Carolina a chance to sit in Week 17.
Tier VI - The Great NFC South Race
5.) Carolina Panthers (10-4 = 331-286)
4.) New Orleans Saints (10-4 = 401-282)
So, there is a chance that if both of these teams lose to Atlanta that the Falcons steal the division, but what is more likely is the team to win the division is the one who beats Atlanta, understanding that if they both beat Atlanta, the Saints get it. This is also a very likely 1st round matchup as well, assuming the current Top-3 seeds take care of business. That is a shame, as I think both are worthy of winning on Wild Card Weekend and going forward. For Carolina, it is especially harsh given that they may match up better against the other three potential division winners than New Orleans.
Tier VII - The Emotional Toughness Quotient
3.) Philadelphia Eagles (12-2 = 438-279)
The Eagles showed a lot of mettle coming from 20-7 down. Sure some of it was luck, with the blocked kicks, but it was also that offense continuing to thrive fully with their backup QB. The scheme and skill positions are in such concert right now. What is worth focusing on is the defense. Will they have an emotional letdown with the loss of Wentz. If anything, the impact emotionally is felt there more - on offense the Wentz loss can be corrected in a literal sense by Foles playing well. That first game was not a good sign, but seeing the offense still flow, the team still win, may push them a bit to restore focus. One win in the last two games gives them Home Field Advantage as well.
Tier VIII - The Best Team in a Tough Spot
2.) Los Angeles Rams (10-4 = 438-272)
The Rams are, given Wentz's injury, the best team in the NFC, if not NFL to me. I realize Seattle is somewhat crippled at the moment, but that was harrowing in its dominance. They toyed with Seattle in Seattle, including a rushing TD on 3rd and 20. The defense is Top-5 in the NFL. The Special Teams is Top-2 in the NFL (only Baltimore comes close). Jared Goff is real in that he is good enough in the flow of that offense. It just hurts that they will likely have to go on the road twice to make it to a Super Bowl. That loss to Philadelphia will really hurt, a lose-lose for both teams given the Rams lost the game, and the Eagles lost their QB. The Rams DVOA through 14 games is in the Top-10 of all teams in the last 20 years. They probably aren't as good, but they have had a truly great season.
Tier IX - The Favorite?
1.) Minnesota Vikings (11-3 = 343-242)
Another team that established a sense of dominance. The Vikings mauled the Bengals, and are a win away against either the Packers or Bears (at home) from a 1st round bye. While they too are playing with their backup QB like the Eagles, Case Keenum has had a great year and has been there for a while now. The defense is getting healthy and playing great. They'll be at home, with added motivation, as unquantifiable as it may seem, of potentially playing the Super Bowl at home. I still question it because the thought of Case Keenum in a Super Bowl is still a bit shocking, but let's just realize how good he's been this year.
Projecting the Playoffs
AFC
1.) New England Patriots = 13-3
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers = 13-3
3.) Jacksonville Jaguars = 12-4
4.) Kansas City Chiefs = 9-7
5.) Baltimore Ravens = 10-6
6.) Buffalo Bills = 9-7
NFC
1.) Philadelphia Eagles = 13-3
2.) Minnesota Vikings = 13-3
3.) Los Angeles Rams = 12-4
4.) New Orleans Saints = 12-4
5.) Carolina Panthers = 11-5
6.) Atlanta Falcons = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
16.) Cleveland Browns (0-14) @ Chicago Bears (4-10) (1:00 - CBS)
15.) New York Giants (2-12) @ Arizona Cardinals (6-8) (4:25 - FOX)
14.) Denver Broncos (5-9) @ Washington Redskins (6-8) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday, as we get only three games where no team has any shot at the playoffs. So happy there are only three here. The Browns have a winnable game, if the Bears effort from last week is any indication they may have checked out.
13.) Indianapolis Colts (3-11) @ Baltimore Ravens (8-6) (Sat - NFLN)
12.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-10) @ Carolina Panthers (10-4) (1:00 - FOX)
11.) Detroit Lions (8-6) @ Cincinnati Bengals (5-9) (1:00 - FOX)
10.) Los Angeles Chargers (7-7) @ New York Jets (5-9) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "One Bad vs. One Good, Pt. 1" Saturday and Sunday as we need two sets of these given how many there are. The first set features four teams still in the Wild Card (division in Carolina's case), needing wins here to push them forward. The Ravens essentially clinch with a win on Saturday. The Panthers actually clinch. Both should happen. The Lions have a classic trap game here, same with the Chargers, who as it is can be eliminated this weekend even with a win.
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers (11-3) @ Houston Texans (4-10) (Mon - NBC)
8.) Oakland Raiders (6-8) @ Philadelphia Eagles (12-2) (MNF - ESPN)
7.) Miami Dolphins (6-8) @ Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Jacksonville Jaguars (10-4) @ San Francisco 49ers (4-10) (4:05 - CBS)
I call it "One Bad vs. One Good, Pt. 2" Sunday and Monday, as we have the second set. By the way, two Monday games because of Christmas! Sadly neither figures to be that competitive. The Eagles clinch HFA with a win. The Steelers somehow clinch nothing with a win given the Jaguars are one game behind - though that could be different if the Jags lose Sunday. The Chiefs clinch the division with a win.
5.) Minnesota Vikings (11-3) @ Green Bay Packers (7-7) (Sat - NBC)
4.) Los Angeles Rams (10-4) @ Tennessee Titans (8-6) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Elimination Upcoming" Saturday and Sunday, as... well actually since I ranked these, the Packers were eliminated with the Falcons winning on Monday. I'm interested to see if they even play him against Minnesota given that. The Vikings need that game also, to clinch a 1st round bye and get the chance to site people in Week 17. The Rams clinch the division with a win, and go one step further to the Titans not making the playoffs as they may somehow do despite being total 8-6 frauds.
3.) Buffalo Bills (8-6) @ New England Patriots (11-3) (1:00 - CBS)
I call it "Revenge tastes best on the scoreboard" Sunday, as the Bills get a chance to do a lot on one game. They need this game, as their clearest path to the playoffs involve them winning both games. they can still get in if they lose to New England and beat Miami, but for that needs the Titans to lose out. The Bills also get a chance to exact revenge after Gronk's dirty play two weeks ago. Hopefully they don't inflict literal revenge on Gronk because the league doesn't need that, but the best revenge for them is a win. Very unlikely, but not impossible given the Patriots have shown some chinks in their armor at home this year.
2.) Seattle Seahawks (8-6) @ Dallas Cowboys (8-6) (4:25 - FOX)
I call it "Better Elimination" Sunday, as we get a clear game where the loser can pack their bags for 2016. Technically, if the Falcons beat the Saints in the game still to come, the Seahawks and Cowboys are more or less done, but assuming that doesn't happen, this game gets really interesting. Also, I love the prospect of that battered Seahawks team looking for a pride performance against an Elliott-filled Cowboys team. Great game, even if before the season started we expected this to have more stakes than what it has now.
1.) Atlanta Falcons (9-5) @ New Orleans Saints (10-4) (1:00 - FOX)
The permutations and combinations in the NFC South is just amazing, even though the most likely scenario is all three make the playoffs. This game will be huge for one key reason, it clinches a playoff spot for Atlanta, and makes the Week 17 game of Carolina @ Atlanta for the division, and hte likely SNF game. At this point there is no great alternative outside that game for the season finale. The game itself should be great with both teams in decent form.
