Tuesday, November 14, 2017

NFL 2017: Week 11 Power Rankings & The Rest

Tier I - The "Worst of the Worst" Trio

32.) Cleveland Browns  (0-9  =  143-240)
31.) New York Giants  (1-8  =  150-238)
30.) San Francisco 49ers  (1-9  =  174-260)

There's a clear set of worst teams and set of best teams halfway through the season. What is surprising is that the group of worst teams isn't that large. These three really have done some amazing work separating themselves from the pack. The Browns have a good chance to go 0-16 here. Honestly, we've just seen the Astros win a World Series, after losing 106 games in 2011, then 107 the next year, and 111 the next. Sometimes things do get really dark before they get better. The Giants have to be one of the greatest disappointments of all time, doubly so now as it seems most of the team has essentially quit. I'm interested to see when the 49ers plug in Jimmy Garroppolo. Beathard looked OK, but they need to see if this investment will have some early dividends.


Tier II - The "They Aren't as Good as their Record, and The Record Isn't That Good Anyway" Quino

29.) Indianapolis Colts  (3-7  =  179-280)
28.) Miami Dolphins  (4-5  =  137-224)
27.) New York Jets  (4-6  =  201-222)
26.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers  (3-6  =  173-208)
25.) Chicago Bears  (3-6  =  150-194)
I honestly don't know how much better this set of five teams is than the three in the previous group, they just happened to win some games. The Colts are mirroring 2011 pretty well with slightly more competence, hanging around in a few games, but also getting blown out every third game. What's interesting at this point is how well that Jacoby Brissett trade ended up being. The Bears have shown suprising strength on defense, but I haven't seen anything special from Trubisky at this point. The Dolphins and Jets are easily two of the worst 4-win teams I've seen midway through a season ever. The Buccaneers need to use these last few weeks to evaluate a lot of their pieces, they have some huge decisions coming up this offseason.


Tier III - The "Big Soft Middle of the NFL" Septo

24.) Houston Texans  (3-6  =  236-241)
23.) Denver Broncos  (3-6  =  166-239)
22.) Arizona Cardinals  (4-5  =  155-223)
21.) Cincinnati Bengals  (3-6  =  149-182)
20.) Baltimore Ravens  (4-5  =  190-171)
19.) Green Bay Packers  (5-4  =  204-207)
18.) Los Angeles Chargers  (3-6  =  167-172)


I hate grouping this many teams together, but I had an even harder time separating them. We have a mix of three formerly decent-to-good teams missing their starting QB (Houston, Arizona and Green Bay), a team snake-bitten like no other (Chargers), one of the least impressive teams with a positive point differential I've seen (Baltimore), and two of the biggest disappointments (Denver, Cincinnati). All seven have some upside (particularly Green Bay if they can stay afloat until/if Rodgers gets back - given the strength of the NFC, this seems unlikely). The Broncos and Bengals are good enough on defense to challenge a few teams here-on out. The Chargers can compete in any game, and their defense is holding up well with Joey Bosa turning into a monster. There's a lot of teams who will beat 2-4 teams over the rest of the year and significantly impact who makes the playoffs.


Tier IV - The "Clinging On to Dear Life" Qunto

17.) Buffalo Bills  (5-4  =  184-196)
16.) Dallas Cowboys  (5-4  =  233-205)
15.) Detroit Lions  (5-4  =  244-210)
14.) Washington Redskins  (4-5  =  207-232)
13.) Oakland Raiders  (4-5  =  196-214)

Here we have five teams that are good enough to have legitimate postseason thoughts, but the margin of error is shockingly slim. The Redskins, given they are in the NFC, have almost no shot, but I actually think they are the best of these five (maybe Oakland, with Carr). The Bills defense has struggled mightily after the Dareus trade, and while the move made sense to clear cap room going forward, its impact could ruin their playoff shot. It now seems finally likely that Elliott misses six games (five more). That coupled with Tyron Smith's injury likely ruins them. The Lions are humming along, but are just in a deep race The defense needs to improve, particularly in pass rush. The Raiders have little margin to error, which hurts given they have trips to LA and Kansas City along with the Patriots game upcoming.


Tier V - The "Somehow, Still in good position" Duo

12.) Tennessee Titans  (6-3  =  205-213)
11.) Atlanta Falcons  (5-4  =  197-179)


It's hard to really trust ether team, as the Titans may be 6-3, but have a negative point differential for the year, and the Falcons who had one until this last week. The Titans schedule lines up well for them, but what they really need is consistency from Mariota, which they haven't gotten all year. The Falcons need that defense to keep up its level. They won't face totally overmatched LTs each week. The offense still isn't in peak form. Even in that game they were merely good. They have had just one game in truth where they looked like the group from 2016, their Week 2 opener against Green Bay.


Tier VI - The "Something is Still Off" Duo

10.) Seattle Seahawks  (6-3  =  211-165)
9.) Pittsburgh Steelers  (7-2  =  187-148)

I wouldn't be shocked if these two teams meet in Super Bowl LII. I also wouldn't be shocked if Seattle misses the playoffs and the Steelers are wild card fodder (hard to envision any scenario they miss the playoffs). The Seahawks defense has to live without Richard Sherman (something they've never really had to do), and that offense is making Russell Wilson throw more than basically every QB in the NFL. He's good enough to make it work, but it puts a strain on that already bad OL The Steelers... I just don't know. Every time I want to take them for real and see them go on a run, they play down to some worse team. That was an entirely predictable slow start against Indianapolis. The Steelers defense is still playing great, but those were some worrying coverage breakdowns to keep the Colts hanging around.


Tier VII - The "Trust Issues" Trio

8.) Jacksonville Jaguars  (6-3  =  226-134)
7.) Carolina Panthers  (7-3  =  213-180)
6.) Kansas City Chiefs  (6-3  =  253-208)

When do we fully jump on board? The Jaguars have the league's best defense - quietly a historically good pass defense. They have an offense that has played better than people realize, but still turned the ball over twice in the 2:00 warning last game. They're good enough to overcome that though. The Panthers started 4-1, then lost two games, and now have won three games. They are a really good team in my mind, and the trade of Benjamin perversely helps them by opening up the offense. The Chiefs are in the worst position now being seen as a clear #3 in the AFC, but the schedule gets fairly easy on the way out, and if they can go 12-4, they have a great shot at a first round bye, but their biggest issue is solving their defense. Put aside Eric Berry, the pass rush has gone quiet the last few weeks. They need that to step up with Berry gone.


Tier VIII - The "The Sleeping Giant is Waking Up" Uno

5.) New England Patriots  (7-2  =  257-195)

I don't want to talk about it. Only thing I will say is when they are getting a kick-off return for a TD, and a blocked punt and a muffed punt, things are going to get real hauntingly scary very soon.


Tier IX - The "Man, the NFC is So Much Better This Year" Quadro

4.) Minnesota Vikings  (7-2  =  217-165)
3.) Los Angeles Rams  (7-2  =  296-162)
2.) New Orleans Saints  (7-2  =  268-165)

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  (8-1  =  283-179)

This top end of the NFC is frightening. The worst team is Minnesota, a team with a +52 point differential, with a still great defense with playmakers at each level. Their only issue is navigating this Keenum vs. Bridgewater dilemma. The real loser here is Bradford. They would be really terrifying had he not gotten hurt. The Rams are on pace to score 526 points and allow 288. Only four prior teams have ever scored more than 500 and allowed less than 300, the 1998 Vikings, the 2007 Patriots, and the 1999/2001 GSOT Rams. It's time to start taking Jared Goff's MVP season somewhat seriously. He leads the league in Y/A, and has had a truly great season. The Saints had the scariest win of the week, scoring 47 on the road in a tough place to play without needing Drew Brees to do anything but hand off. The defense continues to be great. If we take away the first two games of the year, they have the best defense in the NFL. Finally, the best team in the league - another team with an outside shot of a 500/200 season. If they get Lane Johnson back form his concussion the last hole on the team is covered.


Projecting the Playoff Field

AFC

1.) Kansas City Chiefs  =  12-4
2.) New England Patriots  =  12-4

3.) Jacksonville Jaguars  =  11-5
4.) Pittsburgh Steelers  =  11-5
5.) Tennessee Titans  =  10-6
6.) Oakland Raiders  =  9-7


NFC

1.) Philadelphia Eagles  =  13-3
2.) New Orleans Saints  =  12-4
3.) Los Angeles Rams  =  12-4

4.) Minnesota Vikings  =  11-5
5.) Carolina Panthers  =  11-5
6.) Seattle Seahawks  =  10-6


Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games

Byes: Carolina Panthers (7-3), Indianapolis Colts (3-7), New York Jets (4-6), San Francisco 49ers (1-9)

14.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-6)  @  Miami Dolphins (4-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
13.) Arizona Cardinals (4-5)  @  Houston Texans (3-6)  (1:00 - FOX)

I call it "Thankfully there's only two of these" Sunday, as we're getting to the point in the season where games between two bad teams start to really stand out. These two aren't that bad in that sense (helps that three of the bye teams are among the worst), but the Battle of Florida is a disaster (somehow that shit Dolphins team may go 5-5), and the Cardinals and Texans is a great 'what could have been' - just depressing to think about that game had it been Carson Palmer vs. DeShaun Watson.


12.) Kansas City Chiefs (6-3)  @  New York Giants (1-8)  (1:00 - CBS)
11.) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3)  @  Cleveland Browns (0-9)  (1:00 - CBS)

I call it "One Good vs. One Bad" Sunday, as we get only two games where we have good teams playing terrible ones. I guess it helps slightly that the bad teams are at home, but the environments in New York and Cleveland are so dire to ruin any game. The Chiefs and Jaguars should easily go to 7-3, and continue stratifying this league even further this year.


10.) Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)  @  Denver Broncos (3-6)  (4:25 - FOX)
9.) Baltimore Ravens (4-5)  @  Green Bay Packers (5-4)  (1:00 - CBS)
8.) Detroit Lions (5-4)  @  Chicago Bears (4-5)  (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Buffalo Bills (5-4)  @  Los Angeles Chargers (3-6)  (4:05 - FOX) 

I call it "The muddled mess of the week" Sunday, as we get a foursome of games that are just average. Not actively bad. If I was forced to watch any of them I wouldn't complain. There are some nice aspects. Bengals vs. Broncos can be a nice nostalgia affair to when these teams were good. Ravens and Packers will at least give us another look at Brett Hundley and the Ravens great defense. The Lions can go to 6-4 and continue their desperate Wild Card push. Same with the Bills, who get to play Philip Rivers. Any game with Rivers should be cherished at this point.


6.) Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)  @  Dallas Cowboys (5-4)  (SNF - NBC)
5.) Tennessee Titans (6-3)  @  Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2)  (TNF - NBC)


I call it "Genuinely kind of interesting Primetime Games for once!" Thursday and Sunday, as we get two quite nice primetime games. Sure, the Eagles @ Cowboys game would be better if Zeke was playing (and Tyron Smith, who seems about 50/50 at this point), but even then we have the best team in the league getting a chance to prove it on primetime. The Titans and Steelers is a nice game, plus features an intriguing storyline: NBC will be heavily using the robo-cam that they previously used in the FogBowl Pt. 2 out of necessity. As an ex-longtime Madden player, would be good to see a game where most plays are shown with that angle.


4.) Washington Redskins (4-5)  @  New Orleans Saints (7-2)  (1;00 - FOX)
3.) New England Patriots (7-2)  @  Oakland Raiders (4-5)  (4:25 - CBS)


I call it "Elimination Sunday for the worse team?" Sunday, as we get two 4-5 teams, clinging to playoff hopes, needing to pull off an upset to re-ignite a 2nd half push. The Redskins and Raiders need to beat teams with 7-game and 5-game win streaks to have any real shot. I would think Oakland has a better chance being at 'home', but in this case home is Mexico City and they are bringing arguably the worst pass defense to this fight. The Saints are beatable, I guess, and the Redskins have generally done a good job against a run, so seemingly they might have a better chance.


2.) Atlanta Falcons (5-4)  @  Seattle Seahawks (6-3)  (MNF - ESPN)
1.) Los Angeles Rams (7-2)  @  Minnesota Vikings (7-2)  (1:00 - FOX)


I call it "Man, the NFC is just better" Sunday and Monday, as we get two games that just show how much better the NFC is. My highest ranked AFC vs. AFC game was at #5. These two are clearly in my mind the best two. First we get a nice rematch from a few playoff meetings, with two teams trying to right the ship back towards their best play. Seeing Atlanta's defense last week is a great sign ahead of this game. With the Rams and Vikings, we get the first of many great NFC games down the stretch between these top teams (Rams vs. Saints / Saints vs. Panthers / Panthers vs. Vikings / Rams vs. Seahawks all left to still play).

About Me

I am a man who will go by the moniker dmstorm22, or StormyD, but not really StormyD. I'll talk about sports, mainly football, sometimes TV, sometimes other random things, sometimes even bring out some lists (a lot, lot, lot of lists). Enjoy.