(A1) Cleveland Indians vs. (A4) New York Yankees
This could be an interesting series, even though the Indians have gone 33-4 in their last 47 games. By the way, that breaks out to 11-3 even after their 22-0 streak ended. The Indians run has been just incredible. The Yankees though? They might be one of the best Wild Card teams in recent memory. They showed exactly what makes them so good in the Wild Card Game. Their dominant bullpen (which didn't even use Dellin Betances), and their offense power. The series will likely come down to which weakness is hidden the best - the Yankees starting pitching, or the Indians offense. Of course, the Indians offense is not really a 'weakness' especially in the second half of the season. Their offense is more or less as deep as the Yankees in better than league average players (100+ OPS+), though the Yankees have the two superstar bats in Judge and Sanchez.
The Yankees can hide their starting pitching by going to the bullpen more, but if Girardi overuses this tactic it could backfire - see what happened to the Indians late in the World Series after many of their relievers had been overused. I imagine Girardi's hook won't be nearly as quick in a 5-game series vs. the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees have a good shot at this series, but the Indians are just not a good matchup. They can, more or less, match the Yankees bullpen depth with one of the best, by WAR, starting rotations in history (seriously), and an offense more or less as deep. The Indians hitters also strikeout very infrequently (only Houston was lower) which should work well against a strikeout heavy Yankees pitching staff. In the end, the Indians are just slightly too good, but I'm sure they aren't happy having to play this good of a team in the ALDS.
Indians in 4
(A2) Houston Astros vs. (A3) Boston Red Sox
Look, obviously I'll be somewhat biased. Despite my hatred of most things Boston sports, that doesn't really extend to the Red Sox given the Astros are new to the AL. But there's always a nice time to start. Despite the Astros seemingly being disappointing the last few months, they end up just a game behind Cleveland and three behind the Dodgers, and after they got Carlos Correa back healthy more or less returned to being the best offense in many, many years. The Astros offense is incredible. Alex Bregman was the 6th best Astros hitter, and he finished the year with a slash line of .284/.352//475 (129 OPS+). The top four have OPS+'s of 165 (Altuve), 160 (Correa), 150 (Marwin Gonzalez) and 145 (George Springer). They had incredible power and low strikeouts. The Indians pitching staff could easily control them - the Red Sox is probably less likely. It doesn't help the Red Sox two best pitchers are left-handed (Sale, Pomeranz), and the Astros best hitters are all right handed. What really pushes the edge to Houston in this series is the difference in offenses.
The Red Sox entered the season with a lineup that should have challenged Houston's for the best in the AL. Instead, it struggled all year long. Remember Bregman and his 129 OPS+? Well, no Red Sox starter had an OPS+ that high. The Red Sox matchup edges are either slight (their relative defensive strength, though the Astros have a better infield) and potentially better relief pitching. But the Astros key there can be converting many of their plethora of #3/#4 starters into long relievers, like Joe Musgrove and maybe even Lance McCullers, if they want to go that route. The only game the Red Sox expect to have a pitching advantage is Sale vs. Verlander, and even there given Sale's recent struggles it might not be that easy. The Red Sox were a very good team. The Astros were a great team, and they are fully healthy. The key for the Astros was getting Keuchel back and healthy (which he is now), and more than that getting Correa back healthy - and he ended the season red hot. In baseball, anything can happen, but the Astros shouild be fairly comfortable favorites.
Astros in 4
(N1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs (N4) Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are a really good team. Now, they come into this series with a bit of more questions than expected with their pitching, with Zack Greinke struggling mightily in the Wild Card Game and them using Robbie Ray for some reason (the guy expected to start Game 1). That said, the offense is great (made better by a brilliant pickup of JD Martinez) and they have the inherent knowledge that they play the Dodgers really, really well. Sure, head-to-heads are not meaningful, but they went 11-8 against the Dodgers, and outscored them by a bunch.
Of course, focusing on the Diamondbacks is unfair given the team they are up against. The Dodgers were good enough to suffer a 1-16 stretch and still end up with a 103-59 record. The Dodgers were never as good as their 91-36 start, but not as bad as 1-16. Outside of Clayton Kershaw (and to be fair, Kenley Jansen) there is no true standout, but a bunch of great players. In that sense, they have the depth advantage, a 7-deep lineup with a healthy Justin Turner as the anchor, and six good starting pitchers and a fine bullpen. Depth will matter, especially since the Diamondbacks had to waste Robbie Ray. The D'Backs stars are good enough to win a couple games, but the fact that the Diamondbacks will have to probably start Patrick Corbin (119 ERA+) in a potential Game 5 is an issue - compared to having the Dodgers throw out Clayton Kershaw (180 ERA+) or Yu Darvish (124 ERA+). To me, that is the difference here.
Dodgers in 5
(N2) Washington Nationals vs (N3) Chicago Cubs
I'm so excited for this series. These are two great teams, especially with the Cubs strong finish to the season. They rediscovered their offense, to the point that Kris Bryant ended the year with a very similar season to his MVP year from last year. They get to face the best SP lineup in the NL, with Scherzer, Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez getting four of the five games. Scherzer will get all the headlines, but Strasburg quietly had an amazing year, with a 175 ERA+ (same as Max). He only had 175 IPs, but his performance in those innings was incredibly strong. The Nationals have advantages over the Cubs, purely based on 2017 performance, in their starting rotation, and their offense. But some of those edges are not as pronounced. The Cubs offense from teh 2nd half, particularly after Anthony Rizzo woke up, matches up fairly well with the Nationals.
Where the series will really turn for me is the bullpen. The Cubs for the season were better, but the Nationals have recovered really well after having a horrendous start to the year. Their deadline acquisitions of Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle have paid off tremendously. The depth still is not there, but they can protect leads with far more confidence than they used to be able to earlier on in the season. The Nationals to me are sligthly better, and have home field advantage, but it is hard to make accurate comparisons given how different the Cubs were from the first to second half. The second half version of the Cubs are really close, but I do think their flaws are a bit more pronounced.
Nationals in 5
This could be an interesting series, even though the Indians have gone 33-4 in their last 47 games. By the way, that breaks out to 11-3 even after their 22-0 streak ended. The Indians run has been just incredible. The Yankees though? They might be one of the best Wild Card teams in recent memory. They showed exactly what makes them so good in the Wild Card Game. Their dominant bullpen (which didn't even use Dellin Betances), and their offense power. The series will likely come down to which weakness is hidden the best - the Yankees starting pitching, or the Indians offense. Of course, the Indians offense is not really a 'weakness' especially in the second half of the season. Their offense is more or less as deep as the Yankees in better than league average players (100+ OPS+), though the Yankees have the two superstar bats in Judge and Sanchez.
The Yankees can hide their starting pitching by going to the bullpen more, but if Girardi overuses this tactic it could backfire - see what happened to the Indians late in the World Series after many of their relievers had been overused. I imagine Girardi's hook won't be nearly as quick in a 5-game series vs. the Wild Card Game. I think the Yankees have a good shot at this series, but the Indians are just not a good matchup. They can, more or less, match the Yankees bullpen depth with one of the best, by WAR, starting rotations in history (seriously), and an offense more or less as deep. The Indians hitters also strikeout very infrequently (only Houston was lower) which should work well against a strikeout heavy Yankees pitching staff. In the end, the Indians are just slightly too good, but I'm sure they aren't happy having to play this good of a team in the ALDS.
Indians in 4
(A2) Houston Astros vs. (A3) Boston Red Sox
Look, obviously I'll be somewhat biased. Despite my hatred of most things Boston sports, that doesn't really extend to the Red Sox given the Astros are new to the AL. But there's always a nice time to start. Despite the Astros seemingly being disappointing the last few months, they end up just a game behind Cleveland and three behind the Dodgers, and after they got Carlos Correa back healthy more or less returned to being the best offense in many, many years. The Astros offense is incredible. Alex Bregman was the 6th best Astros hitter, and he finished the year with a slash line of .284/.352//475 (129 OPS+). The top four have OPS+'s of 165 (Altuve), 160 (Correa), 150 (Marwin Gonzalez) and 145 (George Springer). They had incredible power and low strikeouts. The Indians pitching staff could easily control them - the Red Sox is probably less likely. It doesn't help the Red Sox two best pitchers are left-handed (Sale, Pomeranz), and the Astros best hitters are all right handed. What really pushes the edge to Houston in this series is the difference in offenses.
The Red Sox entered the season with a lineup that should have challenged Houston's for the best in the AL. Instead, it struggled all year long. Remember Bregman and his 129 OPS+? Well, no Red Sox starter had an OPS+ that high. The Red Sox matchup edges are either slight (their relative defensive strength, though the Astros have a better infield) and potentially better relief pitching. But the Astros key there can be converting many of their plethora of #3/#4 starters into long relievers, like Joe Musgrove and maybe even Lance McCullers, if they want to go that route. The only game the Red Sox expect to have a pitching advantage is Sale vs. Verlander, and even there given Sale's recent struggles it might not be that easy. The Red Sox were a very good team. The Astros were a great team, and they are fully healthy. The key for the Astros was getting Keuchel back and healthy (which he is now), and more than that getting Correa back healthy - and he ended the season red hot. In baseball, anything can happen, but the Astros shouild be fairly comfortable favorites.
Astros in 4
(N1) Los Angeles Dodgers vs (N4) Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks are a really good team. Now, they come into this series with a bit of more questions than expected with their pitching, with Zack Greinke struggling mightily in the Wild Card Game and them using Robbie Ray for some reason (the guy expected to start Game 1). That said, the offense is great (made better by a brilliant pickup of JD Martinez) and they have the inherent knowledge that they play the Dodgers really, really well. Sure, head-to-heads are not meaningful, but they went 11-8 against the Dodgers, and outscored them by a bunch.
Of course, focusing on the Diamondbacks is unfair given the team they are up against. The Dodgers were good enough to suffer a 1-16 stretch and still end up with a 103-59 record. The Dodgers were never as good as their 91-36 start, but not as bad as 1-16. Outside of Clayton Kershaw (and to be fair, Kenley Jansen) there is no true standout, but a bunch of great players. In that sense, they have the depth advantage, a 7-deep lineup with a healthy Justin Turner as the anchor, and six good starting pitchers and a fine bullpen. Depth will matter, especially since the Diamondbacks had to waste Robbie Ray. The D'Backs stars are good enough to win a couple games, but the fact that the Diamondbacks will have to probably start Patrick Corbin (119 ERA+) in a potential Game 5 is an issue - compared to having the Dodgers throw out Clayton Kershaw (180 ERA+) or Yu Darvish (124 ERA+). To me, that is the difference here.
Dodgers in 5
(N2) Washington Nationals vs (N3) Chicago Cubs
I'm so excited for this series. These are two great teams, especially with the Cubs strong finish to the season. They rediscovered their offense, to the point that Kris Bryant ended the year with a very similar season to his MVP year from last year. They get to face the best SP lineup in the NL, with Scherzer, Strasburg and Gio Gonzalez getting four of the five games. Scherzer will get all the headlines, but Strasburg quietly had an amazing year, with a 175 ERA+ (same as Max). He only had 175 IPs, but his performance in those innings was incredibly strong. The Nationals have advantages over the Cubs, purely based on 2017 performance, in their starting rotation, and their offense. But some of those edges are not as pronounced. The Cubs offense from teh 2nd half, particularly after Anthony Rizzo woke up, matches up fairly well with the Nationals.
Where the series will really turn for me is the bullpen. The Cubs for the season were better, but the Nationals have recovered really well after having a horrendous start to the year. Their deadline acquisitions of Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle have paid off tremendously. The depth still is not there, but they can protect leads with far more confidence than they used to be able to earlier on in the season. The Nationals to me are sligthly better, and have home field advantage, but it is hard to make accurate comparisons given how different the Cubs were from the first to second half. The second half version of the Cubs are really close, but I do think their flaws are a bit more pronounced.
Nationals in 5
