** Quick note about the derby. Sure, Stanton didn't make it out of the first round, but that was still an incredible derby. The move to a timed clock was such a game-changer, moving away from the madenning taking of pitches and turning the derby into something special. Plus, no Chris Berman!**
* The return of Mike Trout
Mike Trout will be back on Friday. He's coming back on schedule, seemingly healthy, and while he's surrendered the WAR lead to Judge/Correa/Altuve/Betts group in the AL, he has a whole 70 games to catch up. The weird part is that the Angels themselves played more or less as good without Trout as they did when he played. Eric Young Jr. was a reasonable facsimile of Trout. The pitching staff, particularly bullpen, played well. Given everyone in the AL is alive for the Wild Card, the Angels have a significant, if still minority, shot at a playoff spot. Incredibly, I could easily foresee the Angels nabbing a Wild Card spot, Trout having a monster second half, and ending up stealing an MVP in a year where he doesn't lead the AL in WAR.
* Will any AL Club Sell?
As mentioned above, literally every team is in shouting distance of a Wild Card spot. Currently, it is the Yankees and Rays, who all things considered probably are the two best teams in that maw. But everyone is within 7.5 games, and more realistically, the Twins, Royals, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Orioles and Jays are close enough they may be deterred from dealing. Given that, does anyone sell? That group contains Chris Archer, a prime candidate for a deal in another year, plus a host of Rangers, Mariners and Jays that could be good targets for teams wanting to make a push. The best bets to sell in that group are probably the Rangers and Jays, who have the most forward-thinking front offices in that set. It would be a sad change for two teams that have done so well the last 3 years (more like 7 in case of Texas), but they've peaked and probably should start re-loading./re-tooling.
* Can Aaron Judge keep this up?
Aaron Judge can not take another at bat and still get the AL ROTY, but he's playing for a loftier goal right now. As long as the Yankees are playoff-bound (and even if they aren't), Judge is your AL MVP favorite. He leads baseball in all the advanced metrics (grading out surprisingly well on defense), with monster normal numbers. Best OBP in the AL. Best SLG in MLB. Best OPS and OPS+. He's on pace for a ridiculous year. The one knock on him coming in was his issues with strikeouts, and while he started striking out more in June, he also had his best month of the year. There's no real stopping him at this point. As he showed in the Home Run Derby, he is just a giant, powerful, adonis - who also seems to be a really cool dude as well. The last rookie to win the MVP was Ichiro. Judge has the inside track of being next. He'll have to hold off the story that could be Trout, and a trio of Astros that may end up stealing votes from each other, but he's the good bet to do so.
* What random 2nd half experiment will be next?
This is an annual favorite of mine. Some team will do something really bizarre in the second half. My go-to example was when the 2014 Reds decided to start all rookie pitchers in the second half of a lost season. It didn't really work. Only few of the pitchers ended up doing anything long-term. But still, for a team with nothing really to do, it worked. In some ways, the Rockies kind of did this last year changing their pitching staff and starting a lot of people that would end up being big contributors this year. Maybe it's the Padres. Maybe it is the Giants who have to deal with irrelevance all second half for the first time in a while. Maybe it is the Braves calling up some of their trove of prospects. Hell, maybe it will be the Marlins. There's not really any AL team that stands to be so far out of it soon they may turn to something aggressive and new, but it will be fun to look out for.
* The Re-birth and/or downgrade of the 2018 FA Class
The impending 2018 Free Agent class is expected to break the bank, with guys entering their year 26 season coming up as UFAs with all intentions of seriously testing the market. Bryce Harper is expected to get some contract we may not be able to conceive of ($400MM or something). Manny Machado may do the same. Strange thing, though, with a year-and-a-half to go, they remain a bit underwhelming. Harper started off by putting up a better version of his ridiculous 2015 season (when he was 22), but since May he's been a 300/400/500 player, a good but not otherworldly hitter with average defense. Machado's struggled all year, with an OPS+ of 96, and just 1.5 WAR even accounting for his great defense. Both will still get big contracts, but neither guy is Mike Trout. Harper himself has shown at his best he can be, but that best is surrounded by a bunch of 2-5 win seasons. Both have a lot to play for in the second half, particularly Machado who some thought could challenge Harper's contract value.
* Which teams decide to tank
So, which team is most likely to tear it down fully next. The Phillies were the last one, and seem right on track for a second straight worst record. There's not much left for them to sell-off, unless they want to pull the trigger on trading a peak-value Aaron Nola. What is more interesting is if any of the other bad teams join them in tear-down mode. The Giants are the only other team with a truly dreadful record, but their best assets are such fan favorites that it is hard to imagine them getting rid of Posey and Bumgarner. But there's a lot else (Belt, Crawford, Cueto). Then you get Toronto, which has some older players and cost-controlled pitchers that could be interesting. The sleeping giant in the tank world is the Tigers. Are they ready to call it quits on their run of success. Verlander could command quite a bit. Miggy too. Same with Avila. There is a lot of potential assets, but much like the Giants, it is hard to imagine them pulling the trigger.
* Pitchers on the block
We entered the year with Sonny Gray, Chris Archer and Jose Quintana as high-profile movable assets. Those three are still high-profile movable assets. None are having a great season. But none bad enough to really hurt their trade value. There's a lot of interesting players who could join them. A couple we've covered before, like Johnny Cueto, but there's so many more that could be trade bait. I'm interested to see if Mets give up and trade the only workable, healthy pitching asset they have left in Jacob DeGram (would love him on the Stros). The Mariners could deal one of their guys. There's a lot of teams that could do with another starter that still have serious playoff concerns, like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
* Will HR numbers fall back to earth?
By now, basically anyone connected to baseball has realized that HRs have gone way up to levels that exceed the height of the steroid era. We are pace for around 6,200 HRs; the old record was 5,700 in 2000. By now enough studies have been done to suggest at least a plurality of the reason for the spike is due to changes to the ball. Some of it is a concerted effort by hitters to counter the (still) increasing rate of strikeouts by going for more power. It was two years ago when the spike first started (2nd half of 2015), and it took a while for it to get real prominence but it sure has now. I could see the MLB to take serious steps in investigating changes to the ball - assuming they weren't aware from the start.
* The Great Pitcher Race (Kershaw should win)
Three pitchers have utterly dominated this year of the hitter (putting aside a still-injured Dallas Keuchel for now). One is the best pitcher of his generation who is continuing to work towards removing the need for that 'of his generation' qualifier. The second is the guy who quietly is putting together a HOF resume, winning the Cy Young last year in the NL three years after doing so in the AL. The third is a gumby-like figure who has been so good since going to Boston. Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale. They are playing a so amazingly entertaining game of can you top that. Their pitching lines are staggering. Sale's may look the worst on paper, but he's in the worst ballpark and has been so dominant, with a .901 WHIP and 12.5K/9. Of course, Scherzer's WHIP is at .779. Both Scherzer and Sale have a shot at 300Ks. Kershaw has had brief periods where he was just a great pitcher instead of the best pitcher any of us have ever seen, but his recent form has been so ridiculous. Seeing each of them try to get the title of best pitcher in 2017 will be fabulous to watch down the stretch.
* Will we get a good pennant race?
Every year there is generally at least one great race, but that hasn't really been the case recently. Last year, the closest final gap was 4 games. This year, the closest right now is 2.5 (Indians over Twins) and then 3.5 (Red Sox over Yankees). While each of those could be great down the stretch, what we have largely is two teams in Cleveland and Boston projected to be really good that took a while to get going. There's a trio of races that seem over (AL & NL West and NL East). I am holding out hope the Yankees course correct and push Boston down the stretch. Partially because, as always, eff Boston, but also because the Yankees revival was such a fun part of the first half. Aaron Judge is still awesome, but the team itself struggled the last six weeks. By run differential, they should be 54-32. Instead, they are 45-41. The Yankees have played up to Boston. The only other race really worth watching will be the one I'll be talking about now...
* The Cubs inevitable push (?)
... Will the Cubs be able to catch the Brewers. The Cubs have been so stagnant all year, never really having a sustained stretch of even good play. Sure, they are a bet to run off a 10-0 run at any point, but their flaws are very real. Their starting pitching was a risk coming into the year, and it has been incredibly average. Their hitting is probably doing worse than anyone could have imagined, but the players that are struggling (namely, Russell and Schwarber) aren't great bets to turn things around. At the end, the Cubs are 43-45, without deserving to be any better. And guess what, the Brewers may just pull this off. Their offense mashes home runs like no other team in the NL. Eric Thames got all the press early on, but Travis Shaw is riding a 170 OPS+. The Cubs may play well and still not catch Milwaukee. Teams don't blow 5.5 game leads at the break too often. For Cubs fans, they better not complain after the gifts of God they were bestowed last year, but this uninspired season is just so shocking.
* Which Astro is Best?
The Astros are not only the AL's best team, they also have, as of now, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best position players in the league (not counting Trout), and the race between those three to see who will have the best season should be great to watch. Altuve, in reality, is just continuing off what he did last year, when he finished the season with 7.6 bWAR, improving in OBP (walking more) and SLG. His stealing has even become more efficient. The other two are the real surprised. First, Springer, who's gotten a lot of notoriety for hitting all the lead off home runs. He's up to 27 total for the year, and at 4.1 bWAR. He's cut his strikeout rate, and is walking more, and is, at least for now, over .300 for the first time in his career. Finally, there's the future superstar who is becoming a current superstar. Correa actually started the season pretty slowly, then got hit on the wrist and missed a handful of games in late April. Since he's come back he's hit .341/.417/.646. For the year he's at .325/.402/577. He too has cut his k-rate and upped his walk-rate, and is again just 22. Correa will likely lead the pack at the end of the year, and if he can make a run at Judge, could easily win the AL MVP as well. By the way, given how he started the year before leaving with a pinched nerve in early June, the answer to this might actually be Dallas Keuchel.
* Clayton Kershaw The God
I spoke about him earlier but felt that Kershaw needed his own section. His continuing brilliance is so taken for granted. I realize most people consider him the best pitcher in baseball, but I think we are all still slow to accept him as one of the greatest pitchers ever. He's certainly put up numbers that put him there. Now, one can argue Randy Johnson at his peak was more dominant, or Roger Clemens, or Greg Maddux, or Pedro Martinez (damn, the period from 1990-2005 had some ridiculous pitching), but Kershaw is right there. He is on pace to continue one of the most ridiculous streaks in baseball - lowering his career ERA for a 9th successive season. He entered with a career ERA of 2.37, and he's at 2.18 this year. He had a brief spell early in the season when he wasn't THAT dominant - to where people were putting up Max Scherzer or Chris Sale - but Kershaw seemingly fixed whatever was wrong the last month. Dating back to 2011, when he first broke out and won the Cy Young at 23, he's put up 6+1/2 year of 2.08 ERA, 179 ERA+, and a K/BB ratio of 5.75. This isn't normal, people. I really want to see him put up a dominant 2nd half and win his 4th Cy Young. It's been too long since he won a Cy Young last (all the way back in 2014). We need GOAT Kershaw back.
* Can the Rockies & D'Backs keep it up?
The best story of the 1st half was the Rockies and D'Backs rise from nothing into playoff contenders. For the D'Backs, the collapse would have to be really something truly outlandish for them to miss the playoffs at this point. For the Rockies, the prospect of them falling back to the pack (ie: the runner-up in the NL Central) seems more scarily likely. Both teams, beyond being so much better than anticipated, have been so fun. There's a bunch of random things I like about them, like the Rockies seemingly figuring out how to pitch in Coors Field with these no-name guys, or the D'Backs parade of ex-2011 Top Prospects doing so well. Then there's the D'Backs propensity to start games at 7:40 MST (these are the only two teams in the Mountain Time Zone). I really want them both to continue to play great. Hopefully with the return of Jon Gray the Rockies will get back on track. Either team could make a trade to bolster them further as well. The NL was set up to be so predictable this year, and while in a way there still may not be much drama down the stretch, it is predictable in the best way, with seemingly bad teams doing well.
* Can the Astros & Dodgers be historic?
* The return of Mike Trout
Mike Trout will be back on Friday. He's coming back on schedule, seemingly healthy, and while he's surrendered the WAR lead to Judge/Correa/Altuve/Betts group in the AL, he has a whole 70 games to catch up. The weird part is that the Angels themselves played more or less as good without Trout as they did when he played. Eric Young Jr. was a reasonable facsimile of Trout. The pitching staff, particularly bullpen, played well. Given everyone in the AL is alive for the Wild Card, the Angels have a significant, if still minority, shot at a playoff spot. Incredibly, I could easily foresee the Angels nabbing a Wild Card spot, Trout having a monster second half, and ending up stealing an MVP in a year where he doesn't lead the AL in WAR.
* Will any AL Club Sell?
As mentioned above, literally every team is in shouting distance of a Wild Card spot. Currently, it is the Yankees and Rays, who all things considered probably are the two best teams in that maw. But everyone is within 7.5 games, and more realistically, the Twins, Royals, Angels, Rangers, Mariners, Orioles and Jays are close enough they may be deterred from dealing. Given that, does anyone sell? That group contains Chris Archer, a prime candidate for a deal in another year, plus a host of Rangers, Mariners and Jays that could be good targets for teams wanting to make a push. The best bets to sell in that group are probably the Rangers and Jays, who have the most forward-thinking front offices in that set. It would be a sad change for two teams that have done so well the last 3 years (more like 7 in case of Texas), but they've peaked and probably should start re-loading./re-tooling.
* Can Aaron Judge keep this up?
Aaron Judge can not take another at bat and still get the AL ROTY, but he's playing for a loftier goal right now. As long as the Yankees are playoff-bound (and even if they aren't), Judge is your AL MVP favorite. He leads baseball in all the advanced metrics (grading out surprisingly well on defense), with monster normal numbers. Best OBP in the AL. Best SLG in MLB. Best OPS and OPS+. He's on pace for a ridiculous year. The one knock on him coming in was his issues with strikeouts, and while he started striking out more in June, he also had his best month of the year. There's no real stopping him at this point. As he showed in the Home Run Derby, he is just a giant, powerful, adonis - who also seems to be a really cool dude as well. The last rookie to win the MVP was Ichiro. Judge has the inside track of being next. He'll have to hold off the story that could be Trout, and a trio of Astros that may end up stealing votes from each other, but he's the good bet to do so.
* What random 2nd half experiment will be next?
This is an annual favorite of mine. Some team will do something really bizarre in the second half. My go-to example was when the 2014 Reds decided to start all rookie pitchers in the second half of a lost season. It didn't really work. Only few of the pitchers ended up doing anything long-term. But still, for a team with nothing really to do, it worked. In some ways, the Rockies kind of did this last year changing their pitching staff and starting a lot of people that would end up being big contributors this year. Maybe it's the Padres. Maybe it is the Giants who have to deal with irrelevance all second half for the first time in a while. Maybe it is the Braves calling up some of their trove of prospects. Hell, maybe it will be the Marlins. There's not really any AL team that stands to be so far out of it soon they may turn to something aggressive and new, but it will be fun to look out for.
* The Re-birth and/or downgrade of the 2018 FA Class
The impending 2018 Free Agent class is expected to break the bank, with guys entering their year 26 season coming up as UFAs with all intentions of seriously testing the market. Bryce Harper is expected to get some contract we may not be able to conceive of ($400MM or something). Manny Machado may do the same. Strange thing, though, with a year-and-a-half to go, they remain a bit underwhelming. Harper started off by putting up a better version of his ridiculous 2015 season (when he was 22), but since May he's been a 300/400/500 player, a good but not otherworldly hitter with average defense. Machado's struggled all year, with an OPS+ of 96, and just 1.5 WAR even accounting for his great defense. Both will still get big contracts, but neither guy is Mike Trout. Harper himself has shown at his best he can be, but that best is surrounded by a bunch of 2-5 win seasons. Both have a lot to play for in the second half, particularly Machado who some thought could challenge Harper's contract value.
* Which teams decide to tank
So, which team is most likely to tear it down fully next. The Phillies were the last one, and seem right on track for a second straight worst record. There's not much left for them to sell-off, unless they want to pull the trigger on trading a peak-value Aaron Nola. What is more interesting is if any of the other bad teams join them in tear-down mode. The Giants are the only other team with a truly dreadful record, but their best assets are such fan favorites that it is hard to imagine them getting rid of Posey and Bumgarner. But there's a lot else (Belt, Crawford, Cueto). Then you get Toronto, which has some older players and cost-controlled pitchers that could be interesting. The sleeping giant in the tank world is the Tigers. Are they ready to call it quits on their run of success. Verlander could command quite a bit. Miggy too. Same with Avila. There is a lot of potential assets, but much like the Giants, it is hard to imagine them pulling the trigger.
* Pitchers on the block
We entered the year with Sonny Gray, Chris Archer and Jose Quintana as high-profile movable assets. Those three are still high-profile movable assets. None are having a great season. But none bad enough to really hurt their trade value. There's a lot of interesting players who could join them. A couple we've covered before, like Johnny Cueto, but there's so many more that could be trade bait. I'm interested to see if Mets give up and trade the only workable, healthy pitching asset they have left in Jacob DeGram (would love him on the Stros). The Mariners could deal one of their guys. There's a lot of teams that could do with another starter that still have serious playoff concerns, like the Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs and Astros.
* Will HR numbers fall back to earth?
By now, basically anyone connected to baseball has realized that HRs have gone way up to levels that exceed the height of the steroid era. We are pace for around 6,200 HRs; the old record was 5,700 in 2000. By now enough studies have been done to suggest at least a plurality of the reason for the spike is due to changes to the ball. Some of it is a concerted effort by hitters to counter the (still) increasing rate of strikeouts by going for more power. It was two years ago when the spike first started (2nd half of 2015), and it took a while for it to get real prominence but it sure has now. I could see the MLB to take serious steps in investigating changes to the ball - assuming they weren't aware from the start.
* The Great Pitcher Race (Kershaw should win)
Three pitchers have utterly dominated this year of the hitter (putting aside a still-injured Dallas Keuchel for now). One is the best pitcher of his generation who is continuing to work towards removing the need for that 'of his generation' qualifier. The second is the guy who quietly is putting together a HOF resume, winning the Cy Young last year in the NL three years after doing so in the AL. The third is a gumby-like figure who has been so good since going to Boston. Kershaw, Scherzer, Sale. They are playing a so amazingly entertaining game of can you top that. Their pitching lines are staggering. Sale's may look the worst on paper, but he's in the worst ballpark and has been so dominant, with a .901 WHIP and 12.5K/9. Of course, Scherzer's WHIP is at .779. Both Scherzer and Sale have a shot at 300Ks. Kershaw has had brief periods where he was just a great pitcher instead of the best pitcher any of us have ever seen, but his recent form has been so ridiculous. Seeing each of them try to get the title of best pitcher in 2017 will be fabulous to watch down the stretch.
* Will we get a good pennant race?
Every year there is generally at least one great race, but that hasn't really been the case recently. Last year, the closest final gap was 4 games. This year, the closest right now is 2.5 (Indians over Twins) and then 3.5 (Red Sox over Yankees). While each of those could be great down the stretch, what we have largely is two teams in Cleveland and Boston projected to be really good that took a while to get going. There's a trio of races that seem over (AL & NL West and NL East). I am holding out hope the Yankees course correct and push Boston down the stretch. Partially because, as always, eff Boston, but also because the Yankees revival was such a fun part of the first half. Aaron Judge is still awesome, but the team itself struggled the last six weeks. By run differential, they should be 54-32. Instead, they are 45-41. The Yankees have played up to Boston. The only other race really worth watching will be the one I'll be talking about now...
* The Cubs inevitable push (?)
... Will the Cubs be able to catch the Brewers. The Cubs have been so stagnant all year, never really having a sustained stretch of even good play. Sure, they are a bet to run off a 10-0 run at any point, but their flaws are very real. Their starting pitching was a risk coming into the year, and it has been incredibly average. Their hitting is probably doing worse than anyone could have imagined, but the players that are struggling (namely, Russell and Schwarber) aren't great bets to turn things around. At the end, the Cubs are 43-45, without deserving to be any better. And guess what, the Brewers may just pull this off. Their offense mashes home runs like no other team in the NL. Eric Thames got all the press early on, but Travis Shaw is riding a 170 OPS+. The Cubs may play well and still not catch Milwaukee. Teams don't blow 5.5 game leads at the break too often. For Cubs fans, they better not complain after the gifts of God they were bestowed last year, but this uninspired season is just so shocking.
* Which Astro is Best?
The Astros are not only the AL's best team, they also have, as of now, the 2nd, 3rd and 4th best position players in the league (not counting Trout), and the race between those three to see who will have the best season should be great to watch. Altuve, in reality, is just continuing off what he did last year, when he finished the season with 7.6 bWAR, improving in OBP (walking more) and SLG. His stealing has even become more efficient. The other two are the real surprised. First, Springer, who's gotten a lot of notoriety for hitting all the lead off home runs. He's up to 27 total for the year, and at 4.1 bWAR. He's cut his strikeout rate, and is walking more, and is, at least for now, over .300 for the first time in his career. Finally, there's the future superstar who is becoming a current superstar. Correa actually started the season pretty slowly, then got hit on the wrist and missed a handful of games in late April. Since he's come back he's hit .341/.417/.646. For the year he's at .325/.402/577. He too has cut his k-rate and upped his walk-rate, and is again just 22. Correa will likely lead the pack at the end of the year, and if he can make a run at Judge, could easily win the AL MVP as well. By the way, given how he started the year before leaving with a pinched nerve in early June, the answer to this might actually be Dallas Keuchel.
* Clayton Kershaw The God
I spoke about him earlier but felt that Kershaw needed his own section. His continuing brilliance is so taken for granted. I realize most people consider him the best pitcher in baseball, but I think we are all still slow to accept him as one of the greatest pitchers ever. He's certainly put up numbers that put him there. Now, one can argue Randy Johnson at his peak was more dominant, or Roger Clemens, or Greg Maddux, or Pedro Martinez (damn, the period from 1990-2005 had some ridiculous pitching), but Kershaw is right there. He is on pace to continue one of the most ridiculous streaks in baseball - lowering his career ERA for a 9th successive season. He entered with a career ERA of 2.37, and he's at 2.18 this year. He had a brief spell early in the season when he wasn't THAT dominant - to where people were putting up Max Scherzer or Chris Sale - but Kershaw seemingly fixed whatever was wrong the last month. Dating back to 2011, when he first broke out and won the Cy Young at 23, he's put up 6+1/2 year of 2.08 ERA, 179 ERA+, and a K/BB ratio of 5.75. This isn't normal, people. I really want to see him put up a dominant 2nd half and win his 4th Cy Young. It's been too long since he won a Cy Young last (all the way back in 2014). We need GOAT Kershaw back.
* Can the Rockies & D'Backs keep it up?
The best story of the 1st half was the Rockies and D'Backs rise from nothing into playoff contenders. For the D'Backs, the collapse would have to be really something truly outlandish for them to miss the playoffs at this point. For the Rockies, the prospect of them falling back to the pack (ie: the runner-up in the NL Central) seems more scarily likely. Both teams, beyond being so much better than anticipated, have been so fun. There's a bunch of random things I like about them, like the Rockies seemingly figuring out how to pitch in Coors Field with these no-name guys, or the D'Backs parade of ex-2011 Top Prospects doing so well. Then there's the D'Backs propensity to start games at 7:40 MST (these are the only two teams in the Mountain Time Zone). I really want them both to continue to play great. Hopefully with the return of Jon Gray the Rockies will get back on track. Either team could make a trade to bolster them further as well. The NL was set up to be so predictable this year, and while in a way there still may not be much drama down the stretch, it is predictable in the best way, with seemingly bad teams doing well.
* Can the Astros & Dodgers be historic?
