8.) Offense, offense, offense. Last year’s Conference Title
Games and Super Bowl were defined by the Denver and Carolina defenses. It was a
defense-heavy end of the season, with the Broncos and Panthers anhillating the
Brady-led and Palmer-led offenses they faced, and then did the same to each
other. That won’t happen in 2016. This season is an anomaly. The best defense,
and more exactly, the best pass defenses, all missed the playoffs. The Patriots
have the #1 scoring defense, but that’s
a mirage built off of playing a truly pathetic lineup of offenses – by far the
easiest opposing offenses in the NFL this year. The Packers and Falcons both
have major holes at all levels. The Steelers arguably have the best defense
playing on Sunday, and they themselves are probably on the edge of the Top-10.
This will be an offensive end to the season. Strange, in a way. Scoring was
down – very slightly, but still. More telling, total offense and passing
offense dropped for the first time in years. On the whole, this wasn’t a great
offensive season, but the best offenses are alive and will duke it out.
7.) James Harrison, Dwight Freeney and Julius Peppers: I
don’t know if they are the three oldest defensive players in the league, but
they are probably all in the Top-10. They’ve all seen better days (especially
Freeney). But still, these are guys who dominated the previous decade of NFL
football still playing big roles. Freeney is a bonus for the Falcons, but he
had moments in the Divisional Round and can be key for a team that needs to get
some rush on Rodgers. Peppers and Harrison are instrumental to their teams
defenses and chances. Peppers is a modern marvel who is still within a standard
deviation of how good he’s been ever since he left Carolina, but Harrison had a
huge bounce-back season. The Steelers gave him his first second chance in 2007,
so it just fits they’ve given him his second second chance.
6.) Le’Veon Bell: What Bell has done the last two games,
rushing for 150+ each time while toting the rock 30+ times seems like
overcompensating for him missing the playoffs the last two years. Bell was so
good in 2014 but got hurt in the season finale (to be fair, it was not a
meaningless game). Last year was more or less a write-off. Finally healthy, and
he has been incredible. The Patriots rush defense is better than either Miami’s
or Kansas City’s, and his patient style seems far less likely to work against
the Patriots, but maybe it can. Keeping their drives long and having the ball
for 35+ minutes will be key. It was the formula the Steelers used in their only
recent win in the rivalry – their 25-17 win in 2011. The game was not as close
as the score (the Steelers outgained the Pats 2-1 and held the ball for 40
minutes). That game was defined by Roethlisberger. This will have to be Bell.
5.) Experience vs. Innocence: The Falcons have a coach and a
QB who have never won the Super Bowl. The Patriots, Steelers and Packers have
coaches and QBs who have all won the Super Bowl, combining for 7 total for
each. I can’t off-hand name the last time we had a Conference Title Game
matchup where three of the four starting QBs had won the Super Bowl. For
coaches, the last time was actually just two years ago (McCarthy, Carroll and
Belichick), but that too is quite rare. Does experience matter? The Falcons as
a whole barely have players that were around in 2012 when they lost the NFC
Championship Game. I’m sure people will write about how the Falcons are the
debutantes, how they don’t have the experience, how they’ve choked before. I
don’t think it matters, but I’m sure I’ll be hearing about it a lot.
4.) Aaron Rodgers’ in the playoffs = Amazingness All Around.
With his two wins in these playoffs, Rodgers is now 9-6 in the playoffs. That
is pretty good (though had he lost the Wild Card game, he truly would have
inherited his place as this generations Peyton Manning). What is better is out
of those 15 games, the average level of enjoyment has been ridiculously high.
He’s played now five just classic playoff games: both of his losses to Arizona,
the loss to Seattle in the ’14 Title Game, last Sunday’s win, and the loss to
San Francisco in the ’13 Wild Card Game. I would say there’s been three other
very entertaining games: the Super Bowl win over Pittsburgh, the 26-21
divisional win over Dallas in 2014, and the 45-31 loss to San Francisco –
Kaepernick’s shining moment. Out of the 15, I only truly count one awful game,
a pointless 24-10 win over a Joe Webb led Vikings team in 2012. Aaron Rodgers
has generally been a source of some breathtaking playoff football.
3.) Revenge Potential: One of the hidden joys of Peyton
Manning’s Super Bowl run last year was that he finally got the chance to get
one back at Roethlisberger and the Steelers. Pittsburgh’s 2005 Divisional Win
was probably the most painful loss of Manning’s career, a shocking end to what
had been the best team he had played on. 10 years later he got his chance. For
both Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan, they get their shots at revenge.
Roethlisberger’s incredible rookie season ended with a home Title Game loss to
New England, a slightly embarrassing 41-27 loss that wasn’t as close as the
score. For Ryan, the low point was a 48-21 thrashing that the Packers laid on
them in the 2010 Divisional Round, the worst loss ever by a #1 seed in a
Divisional Game. In Ben’s case, he was a rookie. The Steelers won the Super
Bowl the very next season (and again three years after that), and to my
knowledge Roethlisberger and Brady are the only two players from that game who
are playing this weekend (Belichick, of course). For the Falcons, they haven’t
won a Super Bowl. There are similarly few players remaining (Matt Ryan and
Jordan Babineaux are the only two I can name off the top of my head), but they
have a chance to right a terrible wrong.
2.) The Patriots: I’ll regret writing anything positive
about that team, but my God, let’s just realize this is their 6th
straight title game appearance. That’s bananas. The hater in me would point out
they are 2-3 in the previous five, but still. The further hater in me would
point out the hilarious string of divisional round opponents they’ve been lucky
enough to draw, including the Texans twice, and a Tim Tebow led Broncos team,
but still, six straight title games is just bonkers. I was somewhat surprised
to learn that the team that were previously tied with New England for the
record were the 1973-1977 Raiders, who actually won just one of the five title
games (1976), but the teams they lost to are among the best ever, not one year
wonder Super Bowl winners like Baltimore and Denver (or a Denver team who would
then lose the Super Bowl 43-8). That all said, this is truly an incredible
achievement. Sure, I would rather not have the final true football game of the
season (non spectacle of a game that is the Super Bowl) is in Foxboro, which to
date has still never provided a great playoff crowd, but decades from now, when
hopefully the Patriots are mired in a 2003-2016 Browns-like slump, we can look
back with less tinted glasses at just how incredible the Brady & Belichick
Patriots were.
1.) Matt Ryan’s Moment: At this point, it seems very likely
that Matt Ryan will win the MVP. He was by far and away the 1st team
all pro at QB, and there has never been a QB MVP that was not been the 1st
team All –Pro. That all said, Aaron Rodgers is easily the most hyped player
coming into the NFC Championship Game, what with his brilliant play since the
‘run the table’ remarks. And while the Packers have run the table, guess who
has the best passer rating in the NFL since Week 12 (the week that started the
Packers win streak)? It is Matt Ryan. Matt Ryan was the best QB in the league
in the beginning of the season, he was the best at the end of the season. He’s
been the same record setting QB all year long. Three QBs playing on Sunday have
won the Super Bowl. Matt Ryan has never made a Super Bowl. This is his time.
This whole year has been. In 2011, it was Eli Manning. In 2012, it was Joe
Flacco. 2016 has been the year of Matt Ryan in full, and if he does lead the
Falcons to the Super Bowl, it will start by knocking off the team that is led
by the person people think is playing the best at QB.
