AFC East
1.) New England Patriots - 11-5 (3)
Who's In: (WR) Chris Hogan, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (DE) Chris Long, (DE) Shea McClellin
Who's Out: (WR) Brandon LaFell, (DT) Dominique Easley, (DE) Chandler Jones
There's less turnover in New England this year (my who's in list doesn't include two guys who were ballyhooed signing who are already gone in Terrance Knighton and Nate Washington), which is nice because they have a giant question mark obviously in Brady not playing the first four games. I think the most likely outcome is 2-2, though 1-3 or 3-1 would not shock me. Either way, I think this would be a 5th straight 12 win season with Brady playing the full year, and Brady being out costs them a game. The offense still has a lot of questions at OL, especially after Sebastian Vollmer's season ended, and that could really impact the offense with a young QB and then an old QB who seemed more susceptible to bad OL play than he has in the past. The defense should be good, but I don't like them just giving away Chandler Jones. Belichick is a master at manufacturing pass rush, but to have no real edge rushers could be a problem. At the end, they are the Patriots, they are a great team, but slightly less great with QB concerns. And there is always a 10% chance this is the year age catches up to Brady. As we saw most recently with Manning, and even with Favre in 2010, the end comes very, very quickly.
2.) Buffalo Bills - 9-7
Who's In: (C) Fernando Velasco, (CB) Sterling Moore
Who's Out: (WR) Percy Harvin, (DE) Mario Williams, (LB) Nigel Bradham, (CB) Leodis McKelvin
There's a lot to digest with the Bills, who were a Top-10 defense in 2013 and 2014 with two great defensive coordinators running very different schemes (Gregg Williams in '13, Jim Schwartz in '14), but then became a very mediocre defense under Rex Ryan. There were stories of a few players not buying in to his defense, most notably Mario Williams - but then he was basically given away in what the Bills are hoping is addition by subtraction. The Bills, to me, are still a decently good team with a lot of talent on defense. I don't think they got bad overnight with Ryan, and am hoping they revert to form because for whatever his ills, Rex Ryan is a very good defensive coach. The offense should be better with a better line, another year of seasoning for Tyrod, and hopefully more health and presence from their receivers. I still think this puts them a bit short of the playoffs, but they are buildign nicely with a good draft for a bright future.
3.) New York Jets - 8-8
Who's In: (RB) Matt Forte, (T) Ryan Clady, (NT) Steve McLendon, (LB) Bruce Carter
Who's Out: (RB) Chris Ivory, (NT) Damon Harrison, (LB) Demario Davis, (CB) Antonio Cromartie
Personally, I think the 2015 Jets was the peak of this group, at least for now. They are a veteran laden team on both sides of the ball, and while the Jets have done a good job of getting young players on defense that can step in and keep them good for years (Darron Lee, Leonard Williams last year), but the offense is a concern. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick really going to be that good again? Are Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall, who are both on the wrong side of 30, going to continue to stay healthy for another full season? I also see concerns in replacing D'Brickshaw Ferguson, who missed all of one play in his career, with Ryan Clady, who basically has played 15 games in three years. I don't expect the offense to be nearly as potent as it was at times in 2015. The defense is still really good, and while I think losing Harrison definitely hurts, more of Leonard Williams should help mitigate some of that loss. The Jets defense is still good, but it will have to even improve to make up for what will almost definitely be a worse offense.
4.) Miami Dolphins - 5-11
Who's In: (RB) Arian Foster, (T) Jermon Bushrod, (DE) Mario Williams, (DE) Jason Jones, (LB) Kiko Alonso, (CB) Byron Maxwell
Who's Out: (RB) Lamar Miller, (WR) Rishard Matthews, (WR) Greg Jennings, (DE) Olivier Vernon, (DE) Derrick Shelby, (CB) Brent Grimes
I still have no idea what the Dolphins are doing, cycling in and out average younger players (and Vernon, who is a good younger player), for used-to-be above average aging players, which to me is really a wash. The only reason to expect the 2016 Dolphins to be any better than their 2015 counterpart is Tannehill improving - which in Year 5 would be somewhat unexpected - and Adam Gase meaning that much. Personally, I think Gase is a little overrated as that Chicago offense was also similarly overrated, but he probably can't hurt Tannehill and the offense. The O-Line can, however, and that unit is still a mess. The defense has Suh, who is still really great, but losing Vernon and Shelby hurts the rest of that DL, which really shouldn't be expecting anything from Cameron Wake at this point. There is no unit you can say the Dolphins will be great in, and while I don't think they are much worse than they were last year, with a really tough schedule, I don't know why they will be any better.
AFC North
1.) Cincinnati Bengals - 12-4 (1)
Who's In: (WR) Brandon LaFell, (LB) Karlos Dansby
Who's Out: (WR) Marvin Jones, (WR) Mohamed Sanu, (T) Andre Smith, (LB) AJ Hawk, (CB) Leon Hall, (S) Reggio Nelson
Surprised? I am, as I've reconsidered this projected record a whole lot of time, but I will be sticking with it. First, this team, with Dalton playing, was the best team in the AFC last year, probably finishing 13-3 with him, getting the #1 seed, and maybe making the Super Bowl. This year, I still like the Bengals to be the best, most complete team. Andy Dalton turned a corner last year. He was markedly better in Year #5, when a lot of QBs take a step up (look at Eli Manning in Year 5 onwards). People have concerns with him losing Jones and Sanu, but neither player was all that great or stayed healthy. People have concerns about Hue Jackson leaving, but they've lost coordinators before and kept on swimming. Finally, they still have a defense, which should be even better. The Bengals have become almost Steeler-esque in drafting for future need, and now with guys like Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson and Andre Smith leaving, they have recently high drafted players ready to step in. The Bengals are still really well coached, really talented, and I think primed to still be among the best in the AFC.
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers - 10-6 (5)
Who's In: (TE) Lardarius Green, (T) Ryan Harris
Who's Out: (TE) Heath Miller, (T) Kelvin Beachum, (NT) Steve McLendon, (CB) Brandon Boykin, (CB) Cortez Allen, (S) Will Allen
The Steelers season, like all of their seasons, will really just come down to injuries. They will have to survuve three weeks without Le'Veon Bell, but as long as he can stay healthy when he gets back, their run game should be fine. The Steeler WR Factory is continuing to churn and should be able to adequately replace Martavis Bryant with more from Wheaton or Sammie Coates. The offense still has a Top-3 QB in Roethlisberger and a Top-1 WR in Antonio Brown, and that is basically good enough for a very good offense. The defense still has very few top-level players but less glaring holes than in years past. Their Front-7 is a #10 type unit, which really can bolster a mediocre secondary. I'm assuming normal levels of injuries, but if Ben can play all 16 games, they should be able to do quite well and make it back to the playoffs.
3.) Baltimore Ravens - 10-6 (6)
Who's In: (WR) Mike Wallace, (CB) Jerraud Powers, (S) Eric Weddle
Who's Out: (T) Eugene Monroe, (G) Kelechi Osemele, (DT) Chris Canty, (LB) Daryl Smith, (S) Will Hill
The Ravens have had a lot of stories about this being the end of an era, and while a lot of that makes sense. They have lost talent on both sides of the ball, losing a lot of players from their stacked teams from 2008-2012, but I don't think all is lost in this world. They still have one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL. I like the addition of Mike Wallace in that type of offense. I think the OL is still among the league's best. And the defense is steady, and Eric Weddle is a perfect addition for the team. On the whole, the Ravens are still quite talented, playing a relatively easy schedule, and should be able to do well with their players actually playing. I have never seen a team go through such a rash of injuries to top players last year, and assuming that cataclysm of injuries does not happen again, the Ravens should be able to switch a few of those close losses from last year into close or medium-sized wins. The Ravens of 2015 were closer to a 7-9 type team despite the injuries. Their roadmap to 10-6 is closer than what people would think from a 5-11 record.
4.) Cleveland Browns - 2-14
Who's In: (QB) Robert Griffin III, (G) Austin Pasztor, (LB) Demario Davis, (S) Rahim Moore
Who's Out: (WR) Travis Benjamin, (WR) Brian Hartline, (T) Mitchell Schwartz, (C) Alex Mack, (DT) Randy Starks, (LB) Karlos Dansby, (S) Tashaun Gipson, (S) Donte Whitner
The Browns are trying something that has rarely ever been attempted in the NFL - a total clearning of the house, removing basically all their relavant personnel that were free agents, adding a few low-impact additions, and traipsing the world to collect as many draft picks as humanly possible. It may work, and if they do well in the draft when they finally get around to drafting players, it will work. But that remains to be seen. If anything, the Browns test really starts in April, 2017, on draft day. Until then, we have to watch this trainwreck of a team, but at least they are heading to a brighter future with a clear gameplan for once.
AFC South
1.) Indianapolis Colts - 12-4 (2)
Who's In: (RB) Robert Turbin, (CB) Patrick Robinson
Who's Out: (TE) Coby Fleener, (LB) Jerrell Freeman, (S) Dwight Lowery
For the first time in the Pagano/Grigson era, they had to spend so much money internally to lock up internal players they were restricted in free agency. They really could do nothing, and that was smart. They locked up Andrew Luck, locked up Dwayne Allen, already had TY Hilton, and decided to ride along with what they have - and it may work. Part of my 12-4 pick is homerism, part is an easy schedule with the always sad AFC South, and the, to me, relatively weaker AFC West and NFC North. There is a clear road to top of the division, which let's remember even despite the messiness of last year they finished just one game behind Houston. The last time Andrew Luck was fully healthy, he threw for 40 TDs. The team is now better around him than it was then, especially the ceiling of the OL. The defense remains a concern, and while they are well coached and can do a good job against bad offenses (they always end up between 11-19 in defensive DVOA). They will still struggle against good passing offenses due to their still present lack of pass rush, but that is a problem more likely to show up in a January disaster than hurt them from taking the division back.
2.) Jacksonville Jaguars - 7-9
Who's In: (RB) Cris Ivory, (T) Kelvin Beachum, (DT) Malik Jackson, (CB) Prince Amukamara, (S) Tashaun Gipson
Who's Out: (G) Zane Beadles, (C) Stefan Wisniewski, (DE) Chris Clemons, (S) Sergio Brown
My projected rise for Jacksonville from 5-11 to 7-9 is not due to any faith in Blake Bortles or expectations for that offense. I still think Bortles is at best an average QB and needs to improve a lot to ever take the Jaguars to being an elite offense and team. However, I really like what they are building on defense. Add to their additions of Jackson, Gipson and Amukamara, to the return of last year's #3 pick Dante Fowler, to the presence of rookies Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. The Jaguars have a lot of young, good players and a nice set of veterans complementing that. If Gus Bradley can't turn this group into a good defense, he really doesn't deserve the job he has and will likely be fired. There are no excuses for him anymore. The offense still has the Allens, and I like the Chris Ivory addition, but it will come down to Bortles. If he can a legitimate big step forward to an above-average QB, this team could challenge for a wild card even. He may do that eventually, though I have my doubts for 2016.
3.) Houston Texans - 7-9
Who's In: (QB) Brock Osweiler, (RB) Lamar Miller, (G) Jeff Allen
Who's Out: (QB) Brian Hoyer, (RB) Arian Foster, (WR) Nate Washington, (G) Brandon Brooks, (C) Ben Jones, (DT) Jared Crick, (S) Rahim Moore
The Texans took advantage of a Luck-less Colts season to win the division, and on paper they seem better with Osweiler at the helm, but I am not so sure. First, I don't think this team was 9-7 good last year,` and while Osweiler is definitely a step up from some of the QBs, he may not be from all of them that played last year in Houston. DeAndre Hopkins excluded, the weaponry around him is not markedly better than it was in Denver, and under Osweiler last year, the Broncos were not a good offense. The OL in Houston has gotten worse, and Osweiler's biggest failing in his 7-game run last year was his lack of pocket presence. The defense should still be good with Watt and Clowney, but Watt is dealing with injuries, and the linebacker core has started to look really thin. Overall, I don't think Osweiler makes up for an overall loss of talent to a team that probably wasn't as good as they showed last year.
4.) Tennessee Titans - 5-11
Who's In: (RB) Demarco Murray, (WR) Rishard Matthews, (C) Ben Jones, (CB) Brice McCain, (S) Rashad Johnson
Who's Out: (LB) Zach Brown, (CB) Cody Sensabaugh, (S) Michael Griffin
The Titans are still in their rebuilding process, but I fear sticking with Mike Mularkey may hamper that. To be transparent, I used to be a Mularkey fan and thought he got run out of Buffalo after 2005 way too early (the Bills best team this century was their '04 group with Mularkey), but what he's since done in Jacksonville and now in Tennessee have really made me reconsider. He seems truly committed to playing a style that just doesn't work anymore. Carolina can, because they still have an incredibly complex, varied passing attack and a mountain playing QB. The Titans seem to take the running the ball principle from Carolina, but none of the creativity the Panthers use. Worse for Tennessee, their defense has no discernable strengths in any one area. The wild card here is Mariota. If he is what people thought and still think he will be, they can beat this projection and rise up in this division quickly, but I don't think he is talented enough to rise above the system that will hold him down.
AFC West
1.) Oakland Raiders - 9-7 (4)
Who's In: (G) Kelechi Osemele, (LB) Bruce Irvin, (CB) Sean Smith, (S) Reggie Nelson
Whos' Out: (T) Khalif Barnes, (DE) Justin Tuck, (CB) Charles Woodson, (S) Larry Asante
Again, this is partly a homer pick, but there is reason to actually think they can go 9-7. To me, the question is will the rest of the division be worse, and I think there are reasons for that too. The Raiders were hanging around at 6-5 last year before running into an extremely hard late-season schedule, including four losses to Kansas City (twice), Pittsburgh and Green Bay, but they weren't embarrassed in any of those games. Improvements by Carr, Cooper, Murray, and the 'triplets' for Oakland can help make that team a Top-10 offense. What also helps is arguably the league's best OL, which has depth to withstand injuries as well. Defenses that are built mostly on free agents are a bit scary at times, but Smith, Nelson, Irvin are all young enough to still contribute and build up the young players. In what could be one of the last couple seasons in Oakland, they might finally get back to where they haven't been since 2002.
2.) Kansas City Chiefs - 8-8
Who's In: (T) Mitchell Schwartz, (S) Stevie Brown, (S) JImmy Wilson
Who's Out: (T) Donald Stephenson, (G) Jeff Allen, (G) Ben Grubbs, (CB) Sean Smith, (S) Husain Abdullah, (S) Tyvon Branch
There is a lot of optimism surrounding the Chiefs after their 10 straight wins to end last season, but with various injury concerns I too have overall concerns. The biggest is Justin Houston, who will start the season on PUP and there is no real timetable for his return. The other losses to the defense can hurt their front seven as well beyond even the loss of Houston. The offense still has Andy Reid calling the plays and Alex Smith has gotten effective in that scheme, but I worry too about the losses to the OL. The Chiefs were a veteran, deep team in 2015, but after losing some of that depth make them just a veteran team now. There are a few new bright spots like Marcu Peters, but I do worry about them that 2015 was the peak of the Alex Smith era.
3.) Denver Broncos - 7-9
Who's In: (TE) Garrett Graham, (T) Russell Okung, (T) Donald Stephenson
Who's Out: (QB) Peyton Manning, (QB) Brock Osweiler, (TE) Vernon Davis, (TE) Owen Daniels, (T) Ryan Clady, (T) Ryan Harris, (G) Evan Mathis, (G) Louis Vasquez, (DE) Malik Jackson, (LB) Danny Trevathan
Here's my thinking. Even if Siemian is decent at QB (skeptical), it is highly likely that defense is not historically good again, and there is even less chance they do that well in close games. The Broncos defense won't get too much worse, but a worry has to be their sudden lack of depth now after losing guys like Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan. They can probably replace them on the starting lineup, but if there are injuries (something else they avoided on defense last year) things can really get escalated quickly. The offense is a complete unknown. The OL still looks awful, but with the skill position talent they have there seems to be a floor. Last year, if they could get to 17, they would win most games. This year, that number may be raised to 20, and that can be a problem for an offense that may have a hard time getting there.
4.) San Diego Chargers - 7-9
Who's In: (WR) Travis Benjamin, (DT) Brandon Mebane, (CB) Casey Hayward, (S) Dwight Lowery
Who's Out: (RB) Donald Brown, (TE) Lardarius Green, (DT) Kendall Reyes, (LB) Donald Butler, (LB) Kavell Conner, (CB) Patrick Robinson, (S) Eric Weddle
Simply put, the Chargers have way more talent than last year's 4-12 abomination. Whether it is still employing a great QB, whether it is getting in receiving targets that seem to mesh well with the McCoy / Whisenhunt offense (the last time we saw this was 2013, when the Chargers were a Top-5 offense in the league). The defense is still a concern, but there are bright spots, like the cornerbacks where they have Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers. The defensive front gets coached up well by John Pagano, but there is a ceiling to a defense without any natural pass rush - this is a problem John's brother Chuck faces as well. The Chargers are better than 4-12, but even Philip Rivers can't drag them up too far.
AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend
(3) Patriots defeat (6) Ravens 23-20
(5) Steelers defeat (4) Raiders 27-21
Divisional Weekend
(1) Bengals defeat (5) Steelers 31-24
(2) Colts defeat (3) Patriots 31-27
AFC Championship
(1) Bengals defeat (2) Colts 30-20
1.) New England Patriots - 11-5 (3)
Who's In: (WR) Chris Hogan, (TE) Martellus Bennett, (DE) Chris Long, (DE) Shea McClellin
Who's Out: (WR) Brandon LaFell, (DT) Dominique Easley, (DE) Chandler Jones
There's less turnover in New England this year (my who's in list doesn't include two guys who were ballyhooed signing who are already gone in Terrance Knighton and Nate Washington), which is nice because they have a giant question mark obviously in Brady not playing the first four games. I think the most likely outcome is 2-2, though 1-3 or 3-1 would not shock me. Either way, I think this would be a 5th straight 12 win season with Brady playing the full year, and Brady being out costs them a game. The offense still has a lot of questions at OL, especially after Sebastian Vollmer's season ended, and that could really impact the offense with a young QB and then an old QB who seemed more susceptible to bad OL play than he has in the past. The defense should be good, but I don't like them just giving away Chandler Jones. Belichick is a master at manufacturing pass rush, but to have no real edge rushers could be a problem. At the end, they are the Patriots, they are a great team, but slightly less great with QB concerns. And there is always a 10% chance this is the year age catches up to Brady. As we saw most recently with Manning, and even with Favre in 2010, the end comes very, very quickly.
2.) Buffalo Bills - 9-7
Who's In: (C) Fernando Velasco, (CB) Sterling Moore
Who's Out: (WR) Percy Harvin, (DE) Mario Williams, (LB) Nigel Bradham, (CB) Leodis McKelvin
There's a lot to digest with the Bills, who were a Top-10 defense in 2013 and 2014 with two great defensive coordinators running very different schemes (Gregg Williams in '13, Jim Schwartz in '14), but then became a very mediocre defense under Rex Ryan. There were stories of a few players not buying in to his defense, most notably Mario Williams - but then he was basically given away in what the Bills are hoping is addition by subtraction. The Bills, to me, are still a decently good team with a lot of talent on defense. I don't think they got bad overnight with Ryan, and am hoping they revert to form because for whatever his ills, Rex Ryan is a very good defensive coach. The offense should be better with a better line, another year of seasoning for Tyrod, and hopefully more health and presence from their receivers. I still think this puts them a bit short of the playoffs, but they are buildign nicely with a good draft for a bright future.
3.) New York Jets - 8-8
Who's In: (RB) Matt Forte, (T) Ryan Clady, (NT) Steve McLendon, (LB) Bruce Carter
Who's Out: (RB) Chris Ivory, (NT) Damon Harrison, (LB) Demario Davis, (CB) Antonio Cromartie
Personally, I think the 2015 Jets was the peak of this group, at least for now. They are a veteran laden team on both sides of the ball, and while the Jets have done a good job of getting young players on defense that can step in and keep them good for years (Darron Lee, Leonard Williams last year), but the offense is a concern. Is Ryan Fitzpatrick really going to be that good again? Are Matt Forte and Brandon Marshall, who are both on the wrong side of 30, going to continue to stay healthy for another full season? I also see concerns in replacing D'Brickshaw Ferguson, who missed all of one play in his career, with Ryan Clady, who basically has played 15 games in three years. I don't expect the offense to be nearly as potent as it was at times in 2015. The defense is still really good, and while I think losing Harrison definitely hurts, more of Leonard Williams should help mitigate some of that loss. The Jets defense is still good, but it will have to even improve to make up for what will almost definitely be a worse offense.
4.) Miami Dolphins - 5-11
Who's In: (RB) Arian Foster, (T) Jermon Bushrod, (DE) Mario Williams, (DE) Jason Jones, (LB) Kiko Alonso, (CB) Byron Maxwell
Who's Out: (RB) Lamar Miller, (WR) Rishard Matthews, (WR) Greg Jennings, (DE) Olivier Vernon, (DE) Derrick Shelby, (CB) Brent Grimes
I still have no idea what the Dolphins are doing, cycling in and out average younger players (and Vernon, who is a good younger player), for used-to-be above average aging players, which to me is really a wash. The only reason to expect the 2016 Dolphins to be any better than their 2015 counterpart is Tannehill improving - which in Year 5 would be somewhat unexpected - and Adam Gase meaning that much. Personally, I think Gase is a little overrated as that Chicago offense was also similarly overrated, but he probably can't hurt Tannehill and the offense. The O-Line can, however, and that unit is still a mess. The defense has Suh, who is still really great, but losing Vernon and Shelby hurts the rest of that DL, which really shouldn't be expecting anything from Cameron Wake at this point. There is no unit you can say the Dolphins will be great in, and while I don't think they are much worse than they were last year, with a really tough schedule, I don't know why they will be any better.
AFC North
1.) Cincinnati Bengals - 12-4 (1)
Who's In: (WR) Brandon LaFell, (LB) Karlos Dansby
Who's Out: (WR) Marvin Jones, (WR) Mohamed Sanu, (T) Andre Smith, (LB) AJ Hawk, (CB) Leon Hall, (S) Reggio Nelson
Surprised? I am, as I've reconsidered this projected record a whole lot of time, but I will be sticking with it. First, this team, with Dalton playing, was the best team in the AFC last year, probably finishing 13-3 with him, getting the #1 seed, and maybe making the Super Bowl. This year, I still like the Bengals to be the best, most complete team. Andy Dalton turned a corner last year. He was markedly better in Year #5, when a lot of QBs take a step up (look at Eli Manning in Year 5 onwards). People have concerns with him losing Jones and Sanu, but neither player was all that great or stayed healthy. People have concerns about Hue Jackson leaving, but they've lost coordinators before and kept on swimming. Finally, they still have a defense, which should be even better. The Bengals have become almost Steeler-esque in drafting for future need, and now with guys like Leon Hall and Reggie Nelson and Andre Smith leaving, they have recently high drafted players ready to step in. The Bengals are still really well coached, really talented, and I think primed to still be among the best in the AFC.
2.) Pittsburgh Steelers - 10-6 (5)
Who's In: (TE) Lardarius Green, (T) Ryan Harris
Who's Out: (TE) Heath Miller, (T) Kelvin Beachum, (NT) Steve McLendon, (CB) Brandon Boykin, (CB) Cortez Allen, (S) Will Allen
The Steelers season, like all of their seasons, will really just come down to injuries. They will have to survuve three weeks without Le'Veon Bell, but as long as he can stay healthy when he gets back, their run game should be fine. The Steeler WR Factory is continuing to churn and should be able to adequately replace Martavis Bryant with more from Wheaton or Sammie Coates. The offense still has a Top-3 QB in Roethlisberger and a Top-1 WR in Antonio Brown, and that is basically good enough for a very good offense. The defense still has very few top-level players but less glaring holes than in years past. Their Front-7 is a #10 type unit, which really can bolster a mediocre secondary. I'm assuming normal levels of injuries, but if Ben can play all 16 games, they should be able to do quite well and make it back to the playoffs.
3.) Baltimore Ravens - 10-6 (6)
Who's In: (WR) Mike Wallace, (CB) Jerraud Powers, (S) Eric Weddle
Who's Out: (T) Eugene Monroe, (G) Kelechi Osemele, (DT) Chris Canty, (LB) Daryl Smith, (S) Will Hill
The Ravens have had a lot of stories about this being the end of an era, and while a lot of that makes sense. They have lost talent on both sides of the ball, losing a lot of players from their stacked teams from 2008-2012, but I don't think all is lost in this world. They still have one of the best coaching staffs in the NFL. I like the addition of Mike Wallace in that type of offense. I think the OL is still among the league's best. And the defense is steady, and Eric Weddle is a perfect addition for the team. On the whole, the Ravens are still quite talented, playing a relatively easy schedule, and should be able to do well with their players actually playing. I have never seen a team go through such a rash of injuries to top players last year, and assuming that cataclysm of injuries does not happen again, the Ravens should be able to switch a few of those close losses from last year into close or medium-sized wins. The Ravens of 2015 were closer to a 7-9 type team despite the injuries. Their roadmap to 10-6 is closer than what people would think from a 5-11 record.
4.) Cleveland Browns - 2-14
Who's In: (QB) Robert Griffin III, (G) Austin Pasztor, (LB) Demario Davis, (S) Rahim Moore
Who's Out: (WR) Travis Benjamin, (WR) Brian Hartline, (T) Mitchell Schwartz, (C) Alex Mack, (DT) Randy Starks, (LB) Karlos Dansby, (S) Tashaun Gipson, (S) Donte Whitner
The Browns are trying something that has rarely ever been attempted in the NFL - a total clearning of the house, removing basically all their relavant personnel that were free agents, adding a few low-impact additions, and traipsing the world to collect as many draft picks as humanly possible. It may work, and if they do well in the draft when they finally get around to drafting players, it will work. But that remains to be seen. If anything, the Browns test really starts in April, 2017, on draft day. Until then, we have to watch this trainwreck of a team, but at least they are heading to a brighter future with a clear gameplan for once.
AFC South
1.) Indianapolis Colts - 12-4 (2)
Who's In: (RB) Robert Turbin, (CB) Patrick Robinson
Who's Out: (TE) Coby Fleener, (LB) Jerrell Freeman, (S) Dwight Lowery
For the first time in the Pagano/Grigson era, they had to spend so much money internally to lock up internal players they were restricted in free agency. They really could do nothing, and that was smart. They locked up Andrew Luck, locked up Dwayne Allen, already had TY Hilton, and decided to ride along with what they have - and it may work. Part of my 12-4 pick is homerism, part is an easy schedule with the always sad AFC South, and the, to me, relatively weaker AFC West and NFC North. There is a clear road to top of the division, which let's remember even despite the messiness of last year they finished just one game behind Houston. The last time Andrew Luck was fully healthy, he threw for 40 TDs. The team is now better around him than it was then, especially the ceiling of the OL. The defense remains a concern, and while they are well coached and can do a good job against bad offenses (they always end up between 11-19 in defensive DVOA). They will still struggle against good passing offenses due to their still present lack of pass rush, but that is a problem more likely to show up in a January disaster than hurt them from taking the division back.
2.) Jacksonville Jaguars - 7-9
Who's In: (RB) Cris Ivory, (T) Kelvin Beachum, (DT) Malik Jackson, (CB) Prince Amukamara, (S) Tashaun Gipson
Who's Out: (G) Zane Beadles, (C) Stefan Wisniewski, (DE) Chris Clemons, (S) Sergio Brown
My projected rise for Jacksonville from 5-11 to 7-9 is not due to any faith in Blake Bortles or expectations for that offense. I still think Bortles is at best an average QB and needs to improve a lot to ever take the Jaguars to being an elite offense and team. However, I really like what they are building on defense. Add to their additions of Jackson, Gipson and Amukamara, to the return of last year's #3 pick Dante Fowler, to the presence of rookies Jalen Ramsey and Myles Jack. The Jaguars have a lot of young, good players and a nice set of veterans complementing that. If Gus Bradley can't turn this group into a good defense, he really doesn't deserve the job he has and will likely be fired. There are no excuses for him anymore. The offense still has the Allens, and I like the Chris Ivory addition, but it will come down to Bortles. If he can a legitimate big step forward to an above-average QB, this team could challenge for a wild card even. He may do that eventually, though I have my doubts for 2016.
3.) Houston Texans - 7-9
Who's In: (QB) Brock Osweiler, (RB) Lamar Miller, (G) Jeff Allen
Who's Out: (QB) Brian Hoyer, (RB) Arian Foster, (WR) Nate Washington, (G) Brandon Brooks, (C) Ben Jones, (DT) Jared Crick, (S) Rahim Moore
The Texans took advantage of a Luck-less Colts season to win the division, and on paper they seem better with Osweiler at the helm, but I am not so sure. First, I don't think this team was 9-7 good last year,` and while Osweiler is definitely a step up from some of the QBs, he may not be from all of them that played last year in Houston. DeAndre Hopkins excluded, the weaponry around him is not markedly better than it was in Denver, and under Osweiler last year, the Broncos were not a good offense. The OL in Houston has gotten worse, and Osweiler's biggest failing in his 7-game run last year was his lack of pocket presence. The defense should still be good with Watt and Clowney, but Watt is dealing with injuries, and the linebacker core has started to look really thin. Overall, I don't think Osweiler makes up for an overall loss of talent to a team that probably wasn't as good as they showed last year.
4.) Tennessee Titans - 5-11
Who's In: (RB) Demarco Murray, (WR) Rishard Matthews, (C) Ben Jones, (CB) Brice McCain, (S) Rashad Johnson
Who's Out: (LB) Zach Brown, (CB) Cody Sensabaugh, (S) Michael Griffin
The Titans are still in their rebuilding process, but I fear sticking with Mike Mularkey may hamper that. To be transparent, I used to be a Mularkey fan and thought he got run out of Buffalo after 2005 way too early (the Bills best team this century was their '04 group with Mularkey), but what he's since done in Jacksonville and now in Tennessee have really made me reconsider. He seems truly committed to playing a style that just doesn't work anymore. Carolina can, because they still have an incredibly complex, varied passing attack and a mountain playing QB. The Titans seem to take the running the ball principle from Carolina, but none of the creativity the Panthers use. Worse for Tennessee, their defense has no discernable strengths in any one area. The wild card here is Mariota. If he is what people thought and still think he will be, they can beat this projection and rise up in this division quickly, but I don't think he is talented enough to rise above the system that will hold him down.
AFC West
1.) Oakland Raiders - 9-7 (4)
Who's In: (G) Kelechi Osemele, (LB) Bruce Irvin, (CB) Sean Smith, (S) Reggie Nelson
Whos' Out: (T) Khalif Barnes, (DE) Justin Tuck, (CB) Charles Woodson, (S) Larry Asante
Again, this is partly a homer pick, but there is reason to actually think they can go 9-7. To me, the question is will the rest of the division be worse, and I think there are reasons for that too. The Raiders were hanging around at 6-5 last year before running into an extremely hard late-season schedule, including four losses to Kansas City (twice), Pittsburgh and Green Bay, but they weren't embarrassed in any of those games. Improvements by Carr, Cooper, Murray, and the 'triplets' for Oakland can help make that team a Top-10 offense. What also helps is arguably the league's best OL, which has depth to withstand injuries as well. Defenses that are built mostly on free agents are a bit scary at times, but Smith, Nelson, Irvin are all young enough to still contribute and build up the young players. In what could be one of the last couple seasons in Oakland, they might finally get back to where they haven't been since 2002.
2.) Kansas City Chiefs - 8-8
Who's In: (T) Mitchell Schwartz, (S) Stevie Brown, (S) JImmy Wilson
Who's Out: (T) Donald Stephenson, (G) Jeff Allen, (G) Ben Grubbs, (CB) Sean Smith, (S) Husain Abdullah, (S) Tyvon Branch
There is a lot of optimism surrounding the Chiefs after their 10 straight wins to end last season, but with various injury concerns I too have overall concerns. The biggest is Justin Houston, who will start the season on PUP and there is no real timetable for his return. The other losses to the defense can hurt their front seven as well beyond even the loss of Houston. The offense still has Andy Reid calling the plays and Alex Smith has gotten effective in that scheme, but I worry too about the losses to the OL. The Chiefs were a veteran, deep team in 2015, but after losing some of that depth make them just a veteran team now. There are a few new bright spots like Marcu Peters, but I do worry about them that 2015 was the peak of the Alex Smith era.
3.) Denver Broncos - 7-9
Who's In: (TE) Garrett Graham, (T) Russell Okung, (T) Donald Stephenson
Who's Out: (QB) Peyton Manning, (QB) Brock Osweiler, (TE) Vernon Davis, (TE) Owen Daniels, (T) Ryan Clady, (T) Ryan Harris, (G) Evan Mathis, (G) Louis Vasquez, (DE) Malik Jackson, (LB) Danny Trevathan
Here's my thinking. Even if Siemian is decent at QB (skeptical), it is highly likely that defense is not historically good again, and there is even less chance they do that well in close games. The Broncos defense won't get too much worse, but a worry has to be their sudden lack of depth now after losing guys like Malik Jackson and Danny Trevathan. They can probably replace them on the starting lineup, but if there are injuries (something else they avoided on defense last year) things can really get escalated quickly. The offense is a complete unknown. The OL still looks awful, but with the skill position talent they have there seems to be a floor. Last year, if they could get to 17, they would win most games. This year, that number may be raised to 20, and that can be a problem for an offense that may have a hard time getting there.
4.) San Diego Chargers - 7-9
Who's In: (WR) Travis Benjamin, (DT) Brandon Mebane, (CB) Casey Hayward, (S) Dwight Lowery
Who's Out: (RB) Donald Brown, (TE) Lardarius Green, (DT) Kendall Reyes, (LB) Donald Butler, (LB) Kavell Conner, (CB) Patrick Robinson, (S) Eric Weddle
Simply put, the Chargers have way more talent than last year's 4-12 abomination. Whether it is still employing a great QB, whether it is getting in receiving targets that seem to mesh well with the McCoy / Whisenhunt offense (the last time we saw this was 2013, when the Chargers were a Top-5 offense in the league). The defense is still a concern, but there are bright spots, like the cornerbacks where they have Jason Verrett and Brandon Flowers. The defensive front gets coached up well by John Pagano, but there is a ceiling to a defense without any natural pass rush - this is a problem John's brother Chuck faces as well. The Chargers are better than 4-12, but even Philip Rivers can't drag them up too far.
AFC Playoffs
Wild Card Weekend
(3) Patriots defeat (6) Ravens 23-20
(5) Steelers defeat (4) Raiders 27-21
Divisional Weekend
(1) Bengals defeat (5) Steelers 31-24
(2) Colts defeat (3) Patriots 31-27
AFC Championship
(1) Bengals defeat (2) Colts 30-20
