I've avoided talking about the Houston Astros much of this year. I avoided it after their 17-28 start, after their 35-14 run thereafter to corrall the Texas Rangers to a 2.5 game lead. And since as they've struggled after that and dropped back 3 games in teh loss column. My lack of writing about the team does not mean there has been a lack of interest - if anything, it has been to disappointment coming from too much interest.
The Astros were probably supposed to be right here in 2016, battling for a playoff spot but not an outright favorite to make the playoffs. However, an unexpected breakout in 2015 changed all of that. It changed the way I viewed the team, and more than anything, it changed the way the Astros brass viewed the team. Competing for the first time in a decade in many ways contributed to some trades that were quite iffy. At the time, dealing three average at best prospects for Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez made sense - and I can't argue they lost that trade. But offseason moves for Ken Giles are different. They wanted it. I wanted it. Sadly, though, the Astros are experiencing the normal year-after effect.
I've seen this routine many times in football. I've seen the team breakout from 4-12 to 10-6 or 11-5, doing so a year ahead of schedule. And many times that is followed up with a dip back to 7-9 or 8-8. Then after the initial hurdle, normal growth comes back and they go back to being a 10-6 type team and stay there for a long time. This happens all the time. The Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2001 and then missed the playoffs in 2002. The Colts under Manning went 13-3 and 10-6 in back-to- back seasons, then fell to 6-10 before getting Dungy and exploding for eight years. The Ravens and Falcons both jumped to 11-5 in 2008 with rookie QBs, then fell back slightly to 9-7 in 2009, before becoming playoff teams three straight years in 2010-2012. This is normal, but accepting it is hard.
The MLB season is about 60% done at this point, and the Astros are lingering, but it seems fairly obvious it is not their year. Dallas Keuchel started out miserably, and even recent semi-success will not help to play down his 2015 Cy Young season being a massive fluke. The rest of the pitching staff has been average at best. Jose Altuve is putting up an MVP season, but Carlos Correa and George Springer are just the 'B' versions of themselves. The rest of the lineup has the same holes as always. The team has shortcomings, and I have to keep reminding myself that the future is incredibly bright, despite this small dip in the road.
Last week, the Astros called up Alex Bregman, their top pick in the 2015 draft, #2 overall, who was recently crowned as the best prospect in baseball. In his first game, he just missed hitting what could have been a game-winning Grand Slam. A week later, he is 1-26. Sure, this probably means nothing. Rarely is someone so good at all levels of the minors and just plain bad. Mike Trout himself had an awful cup of coffee in Los Angeles in 2011 before becoming Mickey Mantle incarnate in 2012. Bregam should be fine, but his slow start is another reminder of how tough getting there can be.
Carlos Correa was the AL Rookie of the Year. His statistical profile both as a rookie and a minor-league player aged 17-20 profiled him as a superstar. Despite his 'struggles', he still profiles by the industry-leading statistical projection system (ZIPS) to be a Top-5 player in baseball over the next five years. He still has all the makings of a superstar. He is still just 21. Yet seeing him hit 'just' .260, while walking way more (.360 OBP), showing good power and all the other tools just seems disappointing.
At the end, the future is still really bright. The Astros are well positioned heading into 2017, and I would rather have them accept the normal year-after affect and give away 2016 than trading more guys for stop-gaps. Jeff Luhnow has done a brilliant job of drafting, but his trading record is a little more spotty. I know in my heart things will be fine - and if they can get some reliable long-term starting pitching options behind Lance McCullers they most certainly will be, but the wait is tough. After 10 years in the desert, the 2015 oasis was such a welcome surprise. Walking along it, we hoped it would lead us to the Ocean of never-ending success. It still may, but it may take a while to go down the river to get there.
The Astros were probably supposed to be right here in 2016, battling for a playoff spot but not an outright favorite to make the playoffs. However, an unexpected breakout in 2015 changed all of that. It changed the way I viewed the team, and more than anything, it changed the way the Astros brass viewed the team. Competing for the first time in a decade in many ways contributed to some trades that were quite iffy. At the time, dealing three average at best prospects for Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez made sense - and I can't argue they lost that trade. But offseason moves for Ken Giles are different. They wanted it. I wanted it. Sadly, though, the Astros are experiencing the normal year-after effect.
I've seen this routine many times in football. I've seen the team breakout from 4-12 to 10-6 or 11-5, doing so a year ahead of schedule. And many times that is followed up with a dip back to 7-9 or 8-8. Then after the initial hurdle, normal growth comes back and they go back to being a 10-6 type team and stay there for a long time. This happens all the time. The Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2001 and then missed the playoffs in 2002. The Colts under Manning went 13-3 and 10-6 in back-to- back seasons, then fell to 6-10 before getting Dungy and exploding for eight years. The Ravens and Falcons both jumped to 11-5 in 2008 with rookie QBs, then fell back slightly to 9-7 in 2009, before becoming playoff teams three straight years in 2010-2012. This is normal, but accepting it is hard.
The MLB season is about 60% done at this point, and the Astros are lingering, but it seems fairly obvious it is not their year. Dallas Keuchel started out miserably, and even recent semi-success will not help to play down his 2015 Cy Young season being a massive fluke. The rest of the pitching staff has been average at best. Jose Altuve is putting up an MVP season, but Carlos Correa and George Springer are just the 'B' versions of themselves. The rest of the lineup has the same holes as always. The team has shortcomings, and I have to keep reminding myself that the future is incredibly bright, despite this small dip in the road.
Last week, the Astros called up Alex Bregman, their top pick in the 2015 draft, #2 overall, who was recently crowned as the best prospect in baseball. In his first game, he just missed hitting what could have been a game-winning Grand Slam. A week later, he is 1-26. Sure, this probably means nothing. Rarely is someone so good at all levels of the minors and just plain bad. Mike Trout himself had an awful cup of coffee in Los Angeles in 2011 before becoming Mickey Mantle incarnate in 2012. Bregam should be fine, but his slow start is another reminder of how tough getting there can be.
Carlos Correa was the AL Rookie of the Year. His statistical profile both as a rookie and a minor-league player aged 17-20 profiled him as a superstar. Despite his 'struggles', he still profiles by the industry-leading statistical projection system (ZIPS) to be a Top-5 player in baseball over the next five years. He still has all the makings of a superstar. He is still just 21. Yet seeing him hit 'just' .260, while walking way more (.360 OBP), showing good power and all the other tools just seems disappointing.
At the end, the future is still really bright. The Astros are well positioned heading into 2017, and I would rather have them accept the normal year-after affect and give away 2016 than trading more guys for stop-gaps. Jeff Luhnow has done a brilliant job of drafting, but his trading record is a little more spotty. I know in my heart things will be fine - and if they can get some reliable long-term starting pitching options behind Lance McCullers they most certainly will be, but the wait is tough. After 10 years in the desert, the 2015 oasis was such a welcome surprise. Walking along it, we hoped it would lead us to the Ocean of never-ending success. It still may, but it may take a while to go down the river to get there.
