Eastern Conference Finals
(A2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (M2) Pittsburgh Penguins
The State of the Teams: The Penguins are a really interesting team that find themselves here after years of playoff disappointments. Let's remember one year ago they had an incredibly sullen 5-game loss to the New York Rangers - things can really change in 12 months. The Penguins built their dynamite third line of Kessel - Bonigno - Hagelin all off of trades, and its allowed them to feast of weaker defenseman with Crosby and Malkin on other groups. The Penguins overall team speed is downright scary, and they are fully healthy after some injuries and suspensions muddled the middle of the Capitals series. As for the Lightning, well they are not so healthy. While reports are that Anton Stralman will definitely be back in the series, and there is a decent chance if we get to a Game 5 and beyond that Stamkos is as well, those two guys are not starting it out. JT Brown is also a question-mark and his presence forces Cooper to break up that great checking line. The Lightning, amazingly, are probably healthier now than they have been at any point in the playoffs, and if they can survive the early part of the series, they will start to get really healthy.
The Matchup: It is really hard to pick this series without knowing when of Stralman and / or Stamkos will return. It is truly impressive how well Tampa Bay has done without those two, going 8-2 in the playoffs. But in all honesty they had the easiest run to the NHL's Final-4 than any of the other three teams. The depth issues that are created by moving guys up to unnatural positions, or depending so much on Drouin, will catch up more in this series than in the past two. The Penguins can sacrafice one of the three lines to Hedman - who is a monster - and another to the triplets, and still have a dynamite third line. On the goalie end, quietly Ben Bishop has been great once again in these playoffs. If he can outplay Matt Murray, and the triplets can win their personal battle, the Lightning have a chance. If they can hold serve until Stramlan or Stamkos return, they have a real chance.
The Pick: Penguins in 7 - In the end, I just think the Penguins are a little deeper, a little better, and I don't trust Stralman and Stamkos to come back and start playing with Conference Finals intensity. In what was a really up and down season, with the specter of Stamkos's Free Agency and then blood clots hanging over them, the Lightning have accomplished a lot by getting to this point. The Penguins have something special going, and I think the Lightning give them a great fight, but just not enough.
Western Conference Finals
(P3) San Jose Sharks vs (C2) St. Louis Blues
The State of the Teams: This is being billed as the battle of the chokers, which team will truly shed their label as consistent playoff disappointments and actually make a Stanley Cup Final. In that sense, that isn't a fair comparison. The Blues have only been losing playoff series for six years now. The Sharks, with Marleau and Thornton, have done it for 10. The Sharks have even been this far before, reaching the Conference Finals in both 2010 and 2011, winning a total of one game in those series. Both teams are essentially fully healthy at this point, but the Blues may have some fatigue start setting in at this point, playing two tough, hard 7-game series. They really should have ended the Stars series in 6 games and not need to go back to Dallas. The Sharks can roll their lines well, and the move of Marleau up to the second line with Doonskoi and Couture has worked really well. The Blues have done a little line switching as well, and the key is hiding Backes to where his drop in form won't hurt them too much. These are two deep, healthy teams that are set up really well to give us fans a truly great series.
The Matchup: Both teams are incredibly deep, the Blues probably better on the blue line and the Sharks better up front. The Sharks fourth line of Wingels - Spalling - Tierney has been brilliant in the playoffs, and even the infusion of Dainus Zubrus when Matt Nieto went down has worked well. The Blues have had a rougher go at times generating offense, but the step-up of both Joel Edmunsson and Colton Parayko have made their d-core truly five deep of solid to great players. The Blues could have a relative advantage in net, with Brian Elliott having been great throughout the playoffs while Jones has been more up-and-down, but the Sharks have the better special teams. Their powerplay has been absolutely bonkers two straight series. That first grouping of Burns - Thornton - Couture - Marleau - Pavelski is truly special. The Blues will have to rely on their depth to win some of the battles against the Sharks lesser lines and stay out of the box, which has often been an issue.
The Pick: Sharks in 6 - The Sharks have been really special in these playoffs. They dominated the Kings in a way that was incredible given the Kings own potency. They played a Nashville team that was a lot better than anyone realized (seriously, they are dangerous next year) and easily could have won six of the seven games - losing twice in OT. The Sharks are on a roll right now, and while the Blues are too good to get pushed away easily, I think the Sharks depth, powerplay, and a good series from Jones, gives them their first trip to the Cup Final.
