335-397)I probably won't be doing Playoff Primers this year as I'm traveling and those take an insane amount of work. With the playoffs starting as late as they can (January 9th), I have to compete with other things, as usually the primer can be done in the dark period between Christmas and New Years.
Power Rankings
The Non-Playoff Teams
32.) Cleveland Browns (3-13 = 278-432)
It is just sad the Browns are still this bad. Still. There is no end in site, no savior, especially not one Mr. Manziel. It is hard to remember the Browns were actually 7-4 at one point in 2014, with an offense, under Kyle Shanahan, that was far better than expected. Since then, they are 3-18.
31.) San Francisco 49ers (5-11 = 238-387)
If the Browns want some hope, they can look at the 49ers. From 2011-2013, the 49ers were one of the top two franchises in the sport (along with New England). They were so good. Of course, the Browns should also take heed on how quickly it fell apart because of in-fighting and back-stabbing and people making the wrong reactive decisions.
30.) Dallas Cowboys (4-12 = 275-374)
This is ranking primarily of 2015 performance, and in that way there was no team more disappointing, but I guess also more explainably disappointing, than the Cowboys. They were 12-4, and a Tony Romo injury away from getting the #1 seed in the NFC last year. They were probably the NFCs best team. One year later, they were the NFC's worst by record. When Romo got hurt they were 2-0 and 2-0 in division. It is incomprehensible they were as bad as anyone feared without Romo, with a 2-12 finish.
29.) Tennessee Titans (3-13 = 299-423)
The Titans have now got 5-27 in the last two years, are without a coach and GM, but at least have their QB. Marcus Mariota had a tough rookie year as he missed multiple games with separate injuries. When he was on the field, he was good, at times almost amazing in his poise and ability to play as a 'pocket QB'. I honestly don't want him to reunite with Chip Kelly and just go on doing his own thing.
28.) San Diego Chargers (4-12 = 320-398)
Remember last offseason when Philip Rivers decided to stay in San Diego. Remember when he was almost traded to Tennessee for the pick that became Marcus Mariota? I wonder how it would have played out had that happened. Still, the Titans are probably reasonably happy that they didn't pull the trigger, adn the Chargers are now just screwed with an aging QB who seemingly can't compensate for the rampant problems with injury that his team annually has.
27.) New Orleans Saints (7-9 = 408-476)
The Saints won their last two games to finish up at 7-9, but that makes this a staggering 5 times in the 10 years of Drew Brees's tenure in New Orleans that the Saints failed to win more than 8 games. Five times they've gone .500 or worse. We can somewhat forgive 2012 because Payton was suspended, but other than a strange season in 2013 where they're 11-5 record was built more on defense, they've repeated the 7-9 record twice over.
26.) Chicago Bears (6-10 = 335-397)
The Bears season was odd. 6-10 is not a great season, just one win better than last year which was seen as a disaster at 5-11. Yet there seems to be a general sense of optimism around the team. John Fox installed discipline, and Adam Gase installed his offense that seemed to mesh well with Cutler. Still, 6-10 is just not very good, neither is 6-9 if you discount the one start by Jimmy Clausen.
25.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10 = 342-417)
Jameis Winston had a good rookie season, overcoming a miserable first game with some really solid ones. He has to really work on his accuracy, but you can see an easy path for the Buccaneers to be a playoff team. If Winston improves by 10-15%, and if the defense can finally find a consistent pass rusher to complement the rest of the talent on Lovie Smith's defense, the Buccaneers can easily challenge for a playoff spot in 2016.
24.) Miami Dolphins (6-10 = 310-389)
That was definitely a nice way for them to end the season, beating their rivals (for the third straight year in Miami), and finally showing the promise on defense that they should have had all along. Still, there is nothing to say about the Dolphins 2016 other than it being a true disappointment. They had stagnated, but the overall trend from 6-10 to 7-9 to 8-8 to 8-8 was at least positive. This is a clear jump back.
23.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11 = 376-448)
Blake Bortles had the most misleading statistical season of all time. The Jaguars basically only scored through the air, so he definitely padded that TD number. That said, the offense was a bright spot, as he developed some nice chemistry with the Allens. If Dante Fowler's return can spark the defense, they might have something building.
22.) Baltimore Ravens (5-11 = 328-401)
The Ravens never stopped fighting, and that is the sign of good coaching. How many teams have lost their starting QB, starting RB, #1 WR and #1 pass rusher in the same season and done well? You can say they were already sporting a bad record when Flacco was healthy, but that was because they lost tons of games by 1-5 points, some they absolutely should have won (Jaguars). The Ravens will be back, as that organizational structure is not going anywhere and won't overreact to one bad season.
21.) Philadelphia Eagles (7-9 = 377-430)
The Eagles got a nice with under their interim coach to close out 2015. I wrote back in March that this season would prove memorable in the Chip Kelly era, and did it ever. The only reason this team won seven games was a defense that had a good front seven capable of playing a great game every three games or so and a special teams that was hte most consistent part of his run. Sadly, for all the people that want to give Chip the benefit of the doubt, NFL offense took all of one year to figure his scheme out.
20.) New York Giants (6-10 = 420-442)
I think it was through 12 games, the Giants would have been 10-2 had games ended with 1:30 to play. That kind of went away in their 1-3 finish, but the Giants were still a team that should have done so much better. The Coughlin era is over, and it is really hard to describe what we saw. From 2005-2008, the Giants were a running and defense first team that rode that to a Super Bowl, but made the playoffs each year. From 2009-2015, they were a pass first team, but unlike the rest of the NFL, their coversion into a passing team resulted in just one playoff eappearance in 7 years. I'll never buy into them again.
19.) St. Louis Rams (7-9 = 280-330)
The Rams nearly ran the table to finish 8-8 again, and are now in a complete stateof flux. They are likely moving to LA, keeping their coach who has at best gone 8-8 in four years, and will be playing with an offense that is the most futile in the league. Still, there is hope given that defense, but for how many more years can we say that?
18.) Indianapolis Colts (8-8 = 333-408)
Now that the Colts have, somewhat improbably, decided to retain both Pagano and Grigson, I'm not sure where their future lies. For the past two years, I thought Pagano was destined to be the Jim Mora for Andrew Luck like Mora was for Manning - that a bad season would get him out and bring in the coach where beautiful music would be made. Instead, the Mora stayed. Definitely an interesting decision for a team that fell so spectarularly in 2015.
17.) Atlanta Falcons (8-8 = 339-345)
Remember when the Falcons were 5-0, and Dan Quinn was getting love for coach of the year? Instead, teh Falcons end up continuing their progression of winning two more games than the previous year (4-12 to 6-10 to 8-8). Oddly the issue was an offense incapable of scoring and more than that, way too capable of committing painful turnovers. Discipline, and another receiver besides Julio Jones, is sorely needed.
16.) Detroit Lions (7-9 = 358-400)
The Lions started the season 1-7. Their seventh loss was a 10-45 thrashing at the hands of Kansas City, which put them at their bye - some expected them to come out of the bye without Jim Caldwell. Instead, they came out without Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator and went 6-2 to finish the season. Their success was more about defense, but Stafford seemed to really play better under Jim Bob Cooter's offense, something to look forward too closely in 2016.
15.) Oakland Raiders (7-9 = 359-399)
In the end, the Raiders showed their inexperience, dropping winnable games against the Chiefs (twice) and Steelers which cost them a playoff spot. Still, it is hard to see this year as anything but a raving success. Even with a slight swoon at the end of the year, Derek Carr played like a Top-10 QB in the NFL in 2015, and they have enough skill position guys to really climb up the power charts in 2016, when you expect the Denver dominance to wane. For this first time in 15 years, there is legitimate reason for optimism in Oakland.
14.) Buffalo Bills (8-8 = 379-359)
Rex Ryan's team was the exact opposite as what we expected. Tyrod Taylor was mostly good as a first year starter, and the offense far outperformed normal expectations. The defense, however, really fell off. They were a Top-5 defense in both 2013 and 2014, under two noted defensive coordinators (Gregg Williams in 2013, Jim Schwartz in 2014), and seemed like a good bet to hold that with Rex. Instead, Mario Williams decided to stop trying and the defense became average. They still have the building blocks, but Rex needs to improve his ability to get his team ready to play teams not named the New York Jets.
13.) New York Jets (10-6 = 387-314)
Instead of panning them for losing the last game to miss the playoffs, how about we give them credit for, after starting 5-5, winning five straight to put themselves in that position. The concern has to be that 2015 was about the peak of Ryan Fitzpatrick's ability, and while you expect the defense to stay good, if not get better, it may not be good enough with an offense that almost assuredly will get worse.
AFC
6.) Houston Texans (9-7 = 339-313)
Quietly, the Texans pulled off an impressive turnaround. Let's remember this team trailed 42-0 to the Falcons, and then 41-7 to the Dolphins two weeks later. Somehow, they ended up as a Top-5 defense and while the offense has to play better to have any shot in the playoff, that defense could potentially stifle the Chiefs, and maybe at least make the Patriots or Broncos sweat it out. The Texans should probably enjoy this one, though, because the schedule gets harder in 2016, and unless Luck misses another 10 games, they are in trouble.
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4 = 419-279)
This ranking is based on Andy Dalton not playing. If he does, they are #1. That is a credit to how well Dalton has played in 2015 before his injury. He ends the season as probably the #3 QB in the year behind Palmer and Newton. Anyway, with McCarron their ceiling is definitely limited, and I feel really bad for the whole team. A loss to the Steelers with McCarron at QB is nothing to be ashamed of, but if / when it happens people will spin it to be another example of Marvin Lewis being incapable of winning a playoff game.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 = 405-287)
I think not enough is being made of the Chiefs winning 10 straight after a 1-5 start, a start which saw them lose their heretofore best player in Jamaal Charles. I'm not sure how they did it apart from an easy schedule. Still, the Chiefs are a dangerous team in one that has the potential to make their opponent play poorly, but their ceiling is still limited with their personnel on offense - no matter how well Alex Smith played through most of this 10-game win streak.
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 = 423-319)
The Steelers are the most dangerous team mainly because they have the best QB in the AFC. Yes, Roethlisberger is better than Brady, as he has been for 3 years now. Roethlisberger is better at making the players around him better at this point in his career, and is just more talented at this point. What may kill the Steelers is that defense, which can play well against bad teams but may not hold up in the playoffs against better offenses.
2.) New England Patriots (12-4 = 465-313)
For all the people who claim that the Patriots are hated by the media, I give you exhibit A of the opposite: the lengths people have gone to to not blame the Patriots for blowing the one-seed with back to back losses. I've heard that Belichick was not trying to win, to them intentionally going for the #2 seed. With no other team would this happen, no one wants to just say it: the Patriots have played like shit for two weeks.
1.) Denver Broncos (12-4 = 355-296)
WHat a weird run for the Broncos. They were 7-2 at one point, two games behind both CIncinnati and New England, yet head to head wins against both, with Osweiler starting both games, essentially gave them the #1 seed. Now Manning is back, inhereting the #1 seed and a clear path to a 2nd Super Bowl appearance in three yaers. I have no idea what to exepct, but the last time we saw a health Manning, the Broncos obliterated Green Bay 29-10.
NFC
6.) Washington Redskins (9-7 = 388-379)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (11-5 = 365-302)
4.) Green Bay Packers (10-6 = 368-323)
3.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6 = 423-277)
2.) Arizona Cardinals (13-3 = 489-313)
1.) Carolina Panthers (15-1 = 500-308)
Power Rankings
The Non-Playoff Teams
32.) Cleveland Browns (3-13 = 278-432)
It is just sad the Browns are still this bad. Still. There is no end in site, no savior, especially not one Mr. Manziel. It is hard to remember the Browns were actually 7-4 at one point in 2014, with an offense, under Kyle Shanahan, that was far better than expected. Since then, they are 3-18.
31.) San Francisco 49ers (5-11 = 238-387)
If the Browns want some hope, they can look at the 49ers. From 2011-2013, the 49ers were one of the top two franchises in the sport (along with New England). They were so good. Of course, the Browns should also take heed on how quickly it fell apart because of in-fighting and back-stabbing and people making the wrong reactive decisions.
30.) Dallas Cowboys (4-12 = 275-374)
This is ranking primarily of 2015 performance, and in that way there was no team more disappointing, but I guess also more explainably disappointing, than the Cowboys. They were 12-4, and a Tony Romo injury away from getting the #1 seed in the NFC last year. They were probably the NFCs best team. One year later, they were the NFC's worst by record. When Romo got hurt they were 2-0 and 2-0 in division. It is incomprehensible they were as bad as anyone feared without Romo, with a 2-12 finish.
29.) Tennessee Titans (3-13 = 299-423)
The Titans have now got 5-27 in the last two years, are without a coach and GM, but at least have their QB. Marcus Mariota had a tough rookie year as he missed multiple games with separate injuries. When he was on the field, he was good, at times almost amazing in his poise and ability to play as a 'pocket QB'. I honestly don't want him to reunite with Chip Kelly and just go on doing his own thing.
28.) San Diego Chargers (4-12 = 320-398)
Remember last offseason when Philip Rivers decided to stay in San Diego. Remember when he was almost traded to Tennessee for the pick that became Marcus Mariota? I wonder how it would have played out had that happened. Still, the Titans are probably reasonably happy that they didn't pull the trigger, adn the Chargers are now just screwed with an aging QB who seemingly can't compensate for the rampant problems with injury that his team annually has.
27.) New Orleans Saints (7-9 = 408-476)
The Saints won their last two games to finish up at 7-9, but that makes this a staggering 5 times in the 10 years of Drew Brees's tenure in New Orleans that the Saints failed to win more than 8 games. Five times they've gone .500 or worse. We can somewhat forgive 2012 because Payton was suspended, but other than a strange season in 2013 where they're 11-5 record was built more on defense, they've repeated the 7-9 record twice over.
26.) Chicago Bears (6-10 = 335-397)
The Bears season was odd. 6-10 is not a great season, just one win better than last year which was seen as a disaster at 5-11. Yet there seems to be a general sense of optimism around the team. John Fox installed discipline, and Adam Gase installed his offense that seemed to mesh well with Cutler. Still, 6-10 is just not very good, neither is 6-9 if you discount the one start by Jimmy Clausen.
25.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-10 = 342-417)
Jameis Winston had a good rookie season, overcoming a miserable first game with some really solid ones. He has to really work on his accuracy, but you can see an easy path for the Buccaneers to be a playoff team. If Winston improves by 10-15%, and if the defense can finally find a consistent pass rusher to complement the rest of the talent on Lovie Smith's defense, the Buccaneers can easily challenge for a playoff spot in 2016.
24.) Miami Dolphins (6-10 = 310-389)
That was definitely a nice way for them to end the season, beating their rivals (for the third straight year in Miami), and finally showing the promise on defense that they should have had all along. Still, there is nothing to say about the Dolphins 2016 other than it being a true disappointment. They had stagnated, but the overall trend from 6-10 to 7-9 to 8-8 to 8-8 was at least positive. This is a clear jump back.
23.) Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11 = 376-448)
Blake Bortles had the most misleading statistical season of all time. The Jaguars basically only scored through the air, so he definitely padded that TD number. That said, the offense was a bright spot, as he developed some nice chemistry with the Allens. If Dante Fowler's return can spark the defense, they might have something building.
22.) Baltimore Ravens (5-11 = 328-401)
The Ravens never stopped fighting, and that is the sign of good coaching. How many teams have lost their starting QB, starting RB, #1 WR and #1 pass rusher in the same season and done well? You can say they were already sporting a bad record when Flacco was healthy, but that was because they lost tons of games by 1-5 points, some they absolutely should have won (Jaguars). The Ravens will be back, as that organizational structure is not going anywhere and won't overreact to one bad season.
21.) Philadelphia Eagles (7-9 = 377-430)
The Eagles got a nice with under their interim coach to close out 2015. I wrote back in March that this season would prove memorable in the Chip Kelly era, and did it ever. The only reason this team won seven games was a defense that had a good front seven capable of playing a great game every three games or so and a special teams that was hte most consistent part of his run. Sadly, for all the people that want to give Chip the benefit of the doubt, NFL offense took all of one year to figure his scheme out.
20.) New York Giants (6-10 = 420-442)
I think it was through 12 games, the Giants would have been 10-2 had games ended with 1:30 to play. That kind of went away in their 1-3 finish, but the Giants were still a team that should have done so much better. The Coughlin era is over, and it is really hard to describe what we saw. From 2005-2008, the Giants were a running and defense first team that rode that to a Super Bowl, but made the playoffs each year. From 2009-2015, they were a pass first team, but unlike the rest of the NFL, their coversion into a passing team resulted in just one playoff eappearance in 7 years. I'll never buy into them again.
19.) St. Louis Rams (7-9 = 280-330)
The Rams nearly ran the table to finish 8-8 again, and are now in a complete stateof flux. They are likely moving to LA, keeping their coach who has at best gone 8-8 in four years, and will be playing with an offense that is the most futile in the league. Still, there is hope given that defense, but for how many more years can we say that?
18.) Indianapolis Colts (8-8 = 333-408)
Now that the Colts have, somewhat improbably, decided to retain both Pagano and Grigson, I'm not sure where their future lies. For the past two years, I thought Pagano was destined to be the Jim Mora for Andrew Luck like Mora was for Manning - that a bad season would get him out and bring in the coach where beautiful music would be made. Instead, the Mora stayed. Definitely an interesting decision for a team that fell so spectarularly in 2015.
17.) Atlanta Falcons (8-8 = 339-345)
Remember when the Falcons were 5-0, and Dan Quinn was getting love for coach of the year? Instead, teh Falcons end up continuing their progression of winning two more games than the previous year (4-12 to 6-10 to 8-8). Oddly the issue was an offense incapable of scoring and more than that, way too capable of committing painful turnovers. Discipline, and another receiver besides Julio Jones, is sorely needed.
16.) Detroit Lions (7-9 = 358-400)
The Lions started the season 1-7. Their seventh loss was a 10-45 thrashing at the hands of Kansas City, which put them at their bye - some expected them to come out of the bye without Jim Caldwell. Instead, they came out without Joe Lombardi as offensive coordinator and went 6-2 to finish the season. Their success was more about defense, but Stafford seemed to really play better under Jim Bob Cooter's offense, something to look forward too closely in 2016.
15.) Oakland Raiders (7-9 = 359-399)
In the end, the Raiders showed their inexperience, dropping winnable games against the Chiefs (twice) and Steelers which cost them a playoff spot. Still, it is hard to see this year as anything but a raving success. Even with a slight swoon at the end of the year, Derek Carr played like a Top-10 QB in the NFL in 2015, and they have enough skill position guys to really climb up the power charts in 2016, when you expect the Denver dominance to wane. For this first time in 15 years, there is legitimate reason for optimism in Oakland.
14.) Buffalo Bills (8-8 = 379-359)
Rex Ryan's team was the exact opposite as what we expected. Tyrod Taylor was mostly good as a first year starter, and the offense far outperformed normal expectations. The defense, however, really fell off. They were a Top-5 defense in both 2013 and 2014, under two noted defensive coordinators (Gregg Williams in 2013, Jim Schwartz in 2014), and seemed like a good bet to hold that with Rex. Instead, Mario Williams decided to stop trying and the defense became average. They still have the building blocks, but Rex needs to improve his ability to get his team ready to play teams not named the New York Jets.
13.) New York Jets (10-6 = 387-314)
Instead of panning them for losing the last game to miss the playoffs, how about we give them credit for, after starting 5-5, winning five straight to put themselves in that position. The concern has to be that 2015 was about the peak of Ryan Fitzpatrick's ability, and while you expect the defense to stay good, if not get better, it may not be good enough with an offense that almost assuredly will get worse.
AFC
6.) Houston Texans (9-7 = 339-313)
Quietly, the Texans pulled off an impressive turnaround. Let's remember this team trailed 42-0 to the Falcons, and then 41-7 to the Dolphins two weeks later. Somehow, they ended up as a Top-5 defense and while the offense has to play better to have any shot in the playoff, that defense could potentially stifle the Chiefs, and maybe at least make the Patriots or Broncos sweat it out. The Texans should probably enjoy this one, though, because the schedule gets harder in 2016, and unless Luck misses another 10 games, they are in trouble.
5.) Cincinnati Bengals (12-4 = 419-279)
This ranking is based on Andy Dalton not playing. If he does, they are #1. That is a credit to how well Dalton has played in 2015 before his injury. He ends the season as probably the #3 QB in the year behind Palmer and Newton. Anyway, with McCarron their ceiling is definitely limited, and I feel really bad for the whole team. A loss to the Steelers with McCarron at QB is nothing to be ashamed of, but if / when it happens people will spin it to be another example of Marvin Lewis being incapable of winning a playoff game.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 = 405-287)
I think not enough is being made of the Chiefs winning 10 straight after a 1-5 start, a start which saw them lose their heretofore best player in Jamaal Charles. I'm not sure how they did it apart from an easy schedule. Still, the Chiefs are a dangerous team in one that has the potential to make their opponent play poorly, but their ceiling is still limited with their personnel on offense - no matter how well Alex Smith played through most of this 10-game win streak.
3.) Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6 = 423-319)
The Steelers are the most dangerous team mainly because they have the best QB in the AFC. Yes, Roethlisberger is better than Brady, as he has been for 3 years now. Roethlisberger is better at making the players around him better at this point in his career, and is just more talented at this point. What may kill the Steelers is that defense, which can play well against bad teams but may not hold up in the playoffs against better offenses.
2.) New England Patriots (12-4 = 465-313)
For all the people who claim that the Patriots are hated by the media, I give you exhibit A of the opposite: the lengths people have gone to to not blame the Patriots for blowing the one-seed with back to back losses. I've heard that Belichick was not trying to win, to them intentionally going for the #2 seed. With no other team would this happen, no one wants to just say it: the Patriots have played like shit for two weeks.
1.) Denver Broncos (12-4 = 355-296)
WHat a weird run for the Broncos. They were 7-2 at one point, two games behind both CIncinnati and New England, yet head to head wins against both, with Osweiler starting both games, essentially gave them the #1 seed. Now Manning is back, inhereting the #1 seed and a clear path to a 2nd Super Bowl appearance in three yaers. I have no idea what to exepct, but the last time we saw a health Manning, the Broncos obliterated Green Bay 29-10.
NFC
6.) Washington Redskins (9-7 = 388-379)
5.) Minnesota Vikings (11-5 = 365-302)
4.) Green Bay Packers (10-6 = 368-323)
3.) Seattle Seahawks (10-6 = 423-277)
2.) Arizona Cardinals (13-3 = 489-313)
1.) Carolina Panthers (15-1 = 500-308)
