Looking Back at Last Week's Picks
BENGALS (-12.5) over Browns (CORRECT = 1-0)
Titans (+9) over SAINTS (CORRECT = 2-0)
Jaguars (+9) over JETS (CORRECT = 3-0)
Redskins (+15) over PATRIOTS (WRONG = 3-1)
BILLS (-2.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 4-1)
Rams (pk) over VIKINGS (WRONG = 4-2)
PANTHERS (+2.5) over Packers (CORRECT = 5-2)
Raiders (+4) over STEELERS (CORRECT = 6-2)
49ERS (+7.5) over Falcons (CORRECT = 7-2)
Giants (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS (CORRECT = 8-2)
Broncos (-5) over COLTS (WRONG = 8-3)
COWBOYS (+2.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 8-4)
Bears (+4) over CHARGERS (CORRECT = 9-4)
Power Rankings
32.) Detroit Lions (1-7 = 149-245)
Reason to Fly: I honestly have no idea what reason for optimism there is about the Detroit Lions. I guess you can pop in some old tapes of the team from just a year ago that was one of the best defenses in the league... instead of this unit on pace to give up 490 points
Reason to Die: The team will remain with cap issues as long as Matthew Stafford (never reached his potential) and Calvin Johnson (already past his prime) are on the team... which will be until roughly 2025.
31.) Cleveland Browns (2-7 = 177-247)
Reason to Fly: The Browns are competitive in most of their games, have a lot of young players that could contribute in the future, and have a coach who generally prepares his team well and the team is not making some of the bonehead mistakes of past awful Browns teams.
Reason to Die: Johnny Maziel is still not very good, and niether are other recent first round picks like Danny Shelton, or Justin Gilbert (mostly Justin Gilbert, really). You can't blow 1st round picks when you are already bad.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (3-6 = 126-223)
Reason to Fly: The 49ers offense is good enough to score against bad defenses, and are still better on defense than they should be given the lack of pure talent on the team and the mass exodus over the past 12 months.
Reason to Die: What is the best case with this QB scenario? Blaine Gabbert wins the job full-time? Colin Kaepernick comes back on a lame-duck contract where the 49ers will almost assuredly look to cut ties at the end of 2015?
29.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6 = 170-235)
Reason to Fly: There's more hope than you think here. Blake Bortles is having a decent second season, and Allen Robinson and Alan Hurns are nice weapons. That is a core you can build around in the future, when the AFC becomes easier for lower-ranked teams.
Reason to Die: This isn't 2018, so these guys are not fully formed, and the defense is still old in the areas it is good, and bad in the areas it is young. Maybe Dante Fowler Jr. coming back next years helps to course-correct that side of the ball.
28.) Houston Texans (3-5 = 174-205)
Reason to Fly: You still employ the best player in the NFL at his position, with JJ watt back to doing his normal ridiculous things (8.5 sacks through eight games). And DeAndre Hopkins is quite a nice player as well.
Reason to Die: You basically have two good players. Watt can make your defense competent, but as long as you're playing in the 'Tom Brady Backup' kiddie pool at QB, the cap on the offense is lower than it needs to be. Also, it would be nice for Jadeveon Clowney to start showing the talent that made him #1 overall.
27.) San Diego Chargers (2-7 = 210-249)
Reason to Fly: Watching Philip Rivers each week is still an incredible experience, from the weird way of throwing, to the receivers that no one has ever heard of, and his ability to throw just ridiculous arcs that drop right onto his targets' hands.
Reason to Die: Philip Rivers is being wasted on a team that is equally talent deficient, and snake-bitten with injuries. He can cover a lot of holes, but not to teh ridiculous degree that he has had to at times from 2011-2015.
26.) Dallas Cowboys (2-6 = 160-204)
Reason to Fly: They are just two games back in the loss column in the NFC East, and Tony Romo is expected back in two weeks. The Cowboys have showed enough talent to stay in a lot of these games, so it isn't too hard to imagine them doing really well once they are whole.
Reason to Die: It may not matter if Romo only comes back at Thanksgiving. There is a good chance they'll be 2-8, and probably at best 3-7, heading into that game. Their margin of error is basically nothing. What a help it would have been to win JUST ONE of the non-Romo games.
25.) Chicago Bears (3-5 = 162-221)
Reason to Fly: The Bears have a competent coaching staff that is getting the most out of truly limited talent, and making Jay Cutler into the most composed, safe version of himself. The team is 3-3 when Cutler does start, and figures to get healthier in the second half.
Reason to Die: Their ceiling is capped with Cutler unless their personnel improves whole-sale on the defensive side, so maybe Cutler having a reserved season is bad for their long-term outlook? They still have a real lack of young talent, and while Fox and Gase are here to stay, we are a while away from the true next version of the good Bears.
24.) Miami Dolphins (3-5 = 171-206)
Reason to Fly: Tannehill has played a lot better the last month - save for the disaster in New England. The defense is still plugging away, and there's a bright light at the end of the tunnel with a real coaching staff replacing the remnants of the Philbin era.
Reason to Die: With that loss, the season is close to a write-off at this point with five losses to AFC teams, so they are basically playing out the string with a bunch of coaches who likely won't be here next year. After a nice run back to 3-3, the last two weeks showed that there are structural problems here.
23.) Washington Redskins (3-5 = 158-195)
Reason to Fly: The team is starting to develop in Scott McLoughan's image, a hard-nosed defensive team that will play above its talent level on defense, and center around an offense that protects its QB and allows for a few easy throws.
Reason to Die: Much like with Chicago, what is the future here at QB? Kirk Cousins has been average at best, which is not really good. RGIII is likely gone. McLoughan built teams good enough to be 6-10 to 8-8, but they didn't really evolve until Alex Smith came under Harbaugh's wing. With Cousins, we're not really there.
22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5 = 181-231)
Reason to Fly: The Buccaneers are competitive, could easily be 4-4, if not 5-3, and have a QB that has cut down on mistakes, and much like Cam Newton, looks committed to learning that position and not just rely on his athleticism.
Reason to Die: 2015 is a write-off at this point. There is great potential going forward, and in that division, they are in the best shape outside of Carolina, but maybe, just maybe, blowing leads is building character for what is to come. In many respects, they are emulating Lovie's first year in Chicago.
21.) Baltimore Ravens (2-6 = 190-214)
Reason to Fly: Are we sure they are out of it? There is an outside chance 8-8 gets a Wild Card, and the Ravens play a lot of the Wild Card contenders in the remaining portion of the season. It is unlikely but to me they are the first team in the list with a shot at the playoffs that doesn't need impossible scenarios to play out.
Reason to Die: Ok, they probably are out of it, but more than that they have to figure out how to retain a semblance of leadership on that defense. Reed and Lewis have been gone for a while, but now add Ngata and Suggs to that list. There's a lot of talent, but nothing much tying it together.
20.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-5 = 195-182)
Reason to Fly: The Chiefs are 2-0 in their last two games, despite losing Jamaal Charles, and their defense has put up four good defensive games in a row. They are in many ways a version of Baltimore, but with an additional win already in the bank. The schedule is easy, and they are very much in it.
Reason to Die: Without Jamaal Charles, their offense is very limited against better defenses (the Lions are not one), and they still have four tough road games left (Denver, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore). They could conceivably sneak in, but more likely they'll be a less good version of the 2014 team... on the outside looking in come January.
19.) Tennessee Titans (2-6 = 169-187)
Reason to Fly: Marcus Mariota is very good, and even better when his few completely awful throws results in two Saints running into each other and batting the ball up in the air, which is then caught and run in for a TD. But still, Marcus Mariota is very good.
Reason to Die: There are talent deficiencies, but Mariota can mask a lot of those. The bigger issue is the coaching situation. Mike Mularkey has been competent with young QBs (specifically Matt Ryan), but it would be good to figure out if he's the long term option past 2015.
18.) New Orleans Saints (4-5 = 241-268)
Reason to Fly: Drew Brees is very good, and that offense has at times the last four weeks, looked somewhat like the dynamic machine from 2009-2013. The Saints offense is giving Brees far, far, far more time now than they did early in the season, and maybe him taking the week off was an incredible risky, and now correct, decision.
Reason to Die: They just lost a home game to a team that was 1-7, a game that included a blown 4th quarter lead. Again, this was at home. I brought up 2009-2013. Can you even imagine this happening in the Superdome in 2009-2013? Is that even in the realm of possibility? No, it is absolutely not.
17.) Atlanta Falcons (6-3 = 229-190)
Reason to Fly: The Falcons have six wins in the bank, which helps. They also have a fairly easy schedule to close out the season, which also helps. The NFC Wild Card picture is as muddled as the AFC's, but the teams generally have higher upsides. You may need 10 wins, but for Atlanta, that is just four more... and they have the best QB in that group.
Reason to Die: Well, they had five of the six wins banked a month ago, and proceeded to play a still-easy part of the schedule and went 1-3, with the one win coming as a 3-point win against Zach Mettenberger. So no matter the banked wins or easy schedule, nothing comes easy for them.
16.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4 = 206-182)
Reason to Die: Ben Roethlisberger is hurt again. He was amazingly healthy in 2012-14, when the team waffled between mediocre and good, but now he's hurt for the 2nd time in one season, and this is right after Le'Veon Bell went out for the year. What the hell.
Reason to Fly: Roethlisberger will come back, and no one is running away from the pack in the AFC Wild card. They have a key head-to-head win over Oakland, but four AFC losses will hurt. Also, the rest of their team has been able to pick up for Roethlisberger being out before.
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-4 = 193-164)
Reason to Die: They just aren't very good. This is a team that scored 440+ points in both of Chip Kelly's seasons, and are on pace to score under 400. Sam Bradford is not working, the o-line is still bad, and they have to struggle to approach 30 points.
Reason to Fly: The defense is still quite good. They're also on pace to have by far their best defensive season in Chip Kelly's time here. The team is healthy on that side of the ball, and that front is good enough to win a few games and have them sneak in.
14.) Indianapolis Colts (4-5 = 200-227)
Reason to Die: Andrew Luck broke his world. He's going to miss 2-5 games, probably the high end. This team has had such a rough season. Ironically, they've been healthier than normal, but one of the few injured guys is the franchise.
Reason to Fly: Matt Hasselbeck did a decent job in spot duty earlier, and that division is so abhorrent, they may make the playoffs by multiple games at 7-9. they just need to be somewhat near .500 when Luck comes back and they'll be fine.
13.) Buffalo Bills (4-4 = 209-190)
Reason to Die: What happened to that great Bills defense? In 2013-14, with Gregg Williams and Jim Schwartz as coordinators, the Bills were a Top-5 defense. They had 59 sacks in 2013, and 48 more last year. They had great defensive numbers across the board in 2014. Rex comes in... and they're squarely average and on pace for 26 sacks.
Reason to Fly: What happened to that bad Bills offense! Somehow, the Bills are squarely in teh Wild Card race because of their offense, one that has succeeded with Tyrod Taylor and is getting healthier. They may make the playoffs yet, just not the way we expected.
12.) St. Louis Rams (4-4 = 153-146)
Reason to Die: The Rams basically have two offensive plays; run the ball with Todd Gurley, or run the ball with Tavon Austin. There's not much else. They're basically now depending on Wes Welker to make an improvement.
Reason to Fly: That defense is still very, very good and will get healthier as the season goes on. They have a front-runner for DPOTY in Aaron Donald, and overall are on pace for 54 sacks. They have an outside shot at the playoffs, but are well set for the future.
11.) Seattle Seahawks (4-4 = 167-140)
Reason to Die: The Seahawks offense still depends on Russell Wilson being a miracle worker, and he's been worse at that than normal this year. Not all his fault, His line and weapons have never been THIS bad before. Also, it would be nice if the defense doens't blow 10+ point leads every other week.
Reason to Fly: Guess who's tied for 2nd in points allowed? Guess who's defense will still swallow up any marginal offense. Guess who's still .500 and poised for a nice 2nd half run again. The offense will likely push their ceiling below Super Bowl in 2015, but they'll be a tough, tough out.
10.) Oakland Raiders (4-4 = 213-211)
Reason to Die: The defense is terrible. They have a few nice pieces, and it will get better as the focus shifts to that side of the ball in the draft going forward, but right now unless they get pressure guys are open everywhere.
Reason to Fly: The offense is legitimately good. They kept pace with teh Steelers despite fumbling all over the place. Derek Carr is legitimately a Top-10 QB in 2015, and his connection with those young guys, not only Cooper, will be special to watch in the coming years.
9.) New York Giants (5-4 = 247-226)
Reason to Die: They have no pass rush and now lost arguably their best d-lineman in Jonathan Hankins. The defense is coached well, and they force takeaways, and JPP may give them something, but that defense is still not very good.
Reason to Fly: The offense is about as good as the defense is bad, as Eli Manning has taken to that offense well, and they've started incorporating Shane Vereen nicely as the season has gone on. They also get to play in that division, setting up an eery repeat of 2011.
8.) Minnesota Vikings (6-2 = 168-140)
Reason to Die: They have to start scoring more than 21 points in a game to continue to win; and Teddy Bridgewater is still just a marginal player who hasn't really improved at all in 2015 from his previous self.
Reason to Fly: The team that is tied with Seattle for 2nd in points allowed is the Vikings. They're defense has been good all season, and they're something special on that outdoor field when they are at home. I really wonder if the Vikings will lose something when they move back indoors next year.
7.) New York Jets (5-3 = 200-162)
Reason to Die: Ryan Fitzpatrick will cost them a few games, and the defense at times doesn't play up to their true talent. They are still trying to integrate all those d-lineman into a working rotation, and Revis has been slightly below his normal self during the 2nd quarter of the season.
Reason to Fly: They've banked five wins and have only two AFC losses, and still have a lot of head-to-head games over competitors. Also, that offense might be the best Jets offense since the pre-Thanksgiving Favre bunch in 2008.
6.) Green Bay Packers (6-2 = 203-167)
Reason to Die: It's a 5-team league at the top right now, and the Packers, two weeks after being the clear favorite in the NFC, are #6. They were famous for never being blown out, and then a week after losing 10-29, fell behind 10-37. Yes, they made a comeback, but being down 20+ two weeks in a row is a bad sign.
Reason to Fly: They still have Aaron Rodgers, and maybe that 4th quarter is a sign of things to come. Rodgers is still good enough to always win at least 10 games.
5.) Carolina Panthers (8-0 = 228-165)
Reason to Die: What is going on in the 4th Quarter? The Panthers defense has been tremendous in Q1-3 the last two games, then gave up 20 straight points to nearly blow the Colts game, and then 19 straight points to nearly blow the Packers game.
Reason to Fly: A lot of that is probably just lack of depth due to injuries up-front. I wonder if we'll see the mad secondary blitzing that was so effective for the 2013 Panthers if this continues. Also, do people realize they are on pace to score 456 points, the 4th highest in the league.
4.) Denver Broncos (7-1 = 192-139)
Reason to Die: For once, the defense faltered giving up way too many 3rd down conversions, especially in the mid range (3 to 8 yards); and the run-game disappeared after a nice stretch. Manning also returned to his mental mistakes, even if physically he looked good.
Reason to Fly: Manning physically looked good again. The TD throw to Sanders, and the roll-out throw to the opposite side of the field to Daniels are throws he could not make three weeks ago. That defense, on its worst day, gave up just 369 yards and likely won't be as bad on third down again. Just keep plugging along, knowing the tough games to come are all at home.
3.) Arizona Cardinals (6-2 = 263-153)
Reason to Die: The Cardinals may really rue dropping those two games to the Rams, and especially to Landry Jones and the Steelers. They are appreciably better than Seattle so far in 2015, yet if they lose the upcoming Sunday, they will only be 1 game up on Seattle.
Reason to Fly: They've been 90% as good as New England so far this year. They've scored just 13 points less, and allowed just 10 points more - and this is despite losing two games. They've been so good, but yes, they haven't played many good teams so far.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (8-0 = 229-142)
Reason to Die: They are still the Bengals and this is still Andy Dalton. Yes, he looks good, but so far the Bengals have been incredibly healthy on both sides of the ball, and their depth at receiver, and both lines is not the best.
Reason to Fly: When you factor in competition of opponents, they might be the best team. They haven't been as dominant as New England, or even Arizona in their wins, but the Bengals have been ruthless. Also, can we just admit that Andy Dalton is a legitimate MVP candidate.
1.) New England Patriots (8-0 = 276-143)
Reason to Die: Dion Lewis's injury is meaningful. He's done a great job in the Vereen / Woodhead / Faulk role, and there is no natural replacement. That and the o-line injuries are piling up, and that offense has been about 10% worse the last few weeks.
Reason to Fly: They're 8-0, and the Champs, and have the Golden Boy, and the best Coach, and the best Owner, and the best Everything.
Projecting the Playoff Field
AFC
1.) New England Patriots = 14-2
2.) Denver Broncos = 13-3
3.) Cincinnati Bengals = 13-3
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 9-7
5.) New York Jets = 11-5
6.) Oakland Raiders = 10-6
NFC
1.) Carolina Panthers = 13-3
2.) Arizona Cardinals = 12-4
3.) Green Bay Packers = 12-4
4.) New York Giants = 9-7
5.) Minnesota Vikings = 10-6
6.) St. Louis Rams = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Atlanta Falcons (6-3), Indianapolis Colts (4-5), San Diego Chargers (2-7), San Francisco 49ers (3-6)
14.) Cleveland Browns (2-7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-6) (1;00 - CBS)
12.) Dallas Cowboys (2-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday, as we get three teams that feature six bad teams - and yes, without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers qualify as a bad team. The Browns may actually have a chance to get their first win in Heinz Field (it is STAGGERING that they haven't done this yet). The Ravens can start a potential second half run, and I guess the Cowboys may finally get a Romo-less win.
11.) Houston Texans (3-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-0) (MNF - ESPN)
10.) Carolina Panthers (8-0) @ Tennessee Titans (2-6) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Detroit Lions (1-7) @ Green Bay Packers (6-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad vs. Good" Sunday and Monday, as three of the Big Six in the NFL (CIN, CAR, GB, NE, DEN, ARZ) play three awful teams. The Texans are easily, along with San Fran, the worst three win team. The Titans are better than 2-6, but Mariota is not facing the Saints this week - if two Panthers are in position to make a pick, it won't become a TD. The Packers also get to R-E-L-A-X with the Lions and that awful defense coming to town.
8.) New Orleans Saints (4-5) @ Washington Redskins (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Chicago Bears (3-5) @ St. Louis Rams (4-4) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Miami Dolphins (3-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it 'Mediocre vs. Mediocre" Sunday. The 1:00 slate is just a mess this week; while the late slate is uniformly good. Just a weird reversale. These three games are so average, so blah, so nothing. I may actually do something different from 1:00-4:00 this Sunday.
5.) Minnesota Vikings (6-2) @ Oakland Raiders (4-4) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "Another 1970's Super Bowl that is somehow a good game" Sunday, as the surprising 6-2 Vikings play the surprising 4-4 Raiders. Somehow, I feel like the Raiders are better. They are definitely more exciting. This is definitely a defense vs. offense matchup, but the Raiders just had one of those two weeks ago and their offense dominated.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) @ Denver Broncos (7-1) (4:25 - CBS)
3.) Buffalo Bills (4-4) @ New York Jets (5-3) (TNF - NFLN)
2.) Arizona Cardinals (6-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-4) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Divisional Games Mean Something" Sunday, as we get three good division games. The Chiefs are on a mini-win streak, and with a soft schedule ahead, a win here could really get them going in the 2nd half. The Bills and Jets play for pole position for a Wild Card in what combines as Rex Ryan's return. Finally, Cardinals @ Seahawks could be a great battle on Sunday Night, the first in two weeks for teh Cardinals, who host Cincinnati next Sunday Night.
1.) New England Patriots (8-0) @ New York Giants (5-4) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Revenge is a dish..." Sunday, as My Word. The Patriots go for 9-0, but also go for triple revence. The Giants go for a big win at home, something that would really put them in nice position in the NFC East. The Giants seemingly know how to play the Patriots, but literally two Giants defenders remain from the Super Bowl in 2011 (Prince Amukamara and Jason Pierre-Paul and his seven fingers). Really nice game here.
BENGALS (-12.5) over Browns (CORRECT = 1-0)
Titans (+9) over SAINTS (CORRECT = 2-0)
Jaguars (+9) over JETS (CORRECT = 3-0)
Redskins (+15) over PATRIOTS (WRONG = 3-1)
BILLS (-2.5) over Dolphins (CORRECT = 4-1)
Rams (pk) over VIKINGS (WRONG = 4-2)
PANTHERS (+2.5) over Packers (CORRECT = 5-2)
Raiders (+4) over STEELERS (CORRECT = 6-2)
49ERS (+7.5) over Falcons (CORRECT = 7-2)
Giants (-2.5) over BUCCANEERS (CORRECT = 8-2)
Broncos (-5) over COLTS (WRONG = 8-3)
COWBOYS (+2.5) over Eagles (WRONG = 8-4)
Bears (+4) over CHARGERS (CORRECT = 9-4)
Power Rankings
32.) Detroit Lions (1-7 = 149-245)
Reason to Fly: I honestly have no idea what reason for optimism there is about the Detroit Lions. I guess you can pop in some old tapes of the team from just a year ago that was one of the best defenses in the league... instead of this unit on pace to give up 490 points
Reason to Die: The team will remain with cap issues as long as Matthew Stafford (never reached his potential) and Calvin Johnson (already past his prime) are on the team... which will be until roughly 2025.
31.) Cleveland Browns (2-7 = 177-247)
Reason to Fly: The Browns are competitive in most of their games, have a lot of young players that could contribute in the future, and have a coach who generally prepares his team well and the team is not making some of the bonehead mistakes of past awful Browns teams.
Reason to Die: Johnny Maziel is still not very good, and niether are other recent first round picks like Danny Shelton, or Justin Gilbert (mostly Justin Gilbert, really). You can't blow 1st round picks when you are already bad.
30.) San Francisco 49ers (3-6 = 126-223)
Reason to Fly: The 49ers offense is good enough to score against bad defenses, and are still better on defense than they should be given the lack of pure talent on the team and the mass exodus over the past 12 months.
Reason to Die: What is the best case with this QB scenario? Blaine Gabbert wins the job full-time? Colin Kaepernick comes back on a lame-duck contract where the 49ers will almost assuredly look to cut ties at the end of 2015?
29.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6 = 170-235)
Reason to Fly: There's more hope than you think here. Blake Bortles is having a decent second season, and Allen Robinson and Alan Hurns are nice weapons. That is a core you can build around in the future, when the AFC becomes easier for lower-ranked teams.
Reason to Die: This isn't 2018, so these guys are not fully formed, and the defense is still old in the areas it is good, and bad in the areas it is young. Maybe Dante Fowler Jr. coming back next years helps to course-correct that side of the ball.
28.) Houston Texans (3-5 = 174-205)
Reason to Fly: You still employ the best player in the NFL at his position, with JJ watt back to doing his normal ridiculous things (8.5 sacks through eight games). And DeAndre Hopkins is quite a nice player as well.
Reason to Die: You basically have two good players. Watt can make your defense competent, but as long as you're playing in the 'Tom Brady Backup' kiddie pool at QB, the cap on the offense is lower than it needs to be. Also, it would be nice for Jadeveon Clowney to start showing the talent that made him #1 overall.
27.) San Diego Chargers (2-7 = 210-249)
Reason to Fly: Watching Philip Rivers each week is still an incredible experience, from the weird way of throwing, to the receivers that no one has ever heard of, and his ability to throw just ridiculous arcs that drop right onto his targets' hands.
Reason to Die: Philip Rivers is being wasted on a team that is equally talent deficient, and snake-bitten with injuries. He can cover a lot of holes, but not to teh ridiculous degree that he has had to at times from 2011-2015.
26.) Dallas Cowboys (2-6 = 160-204)
Reason to Fly: They are just two games back in the loss column in the NFC East, and Tony Romo is expected back in two weeks. The Cowboys have showed enough talent to stay in a lot of these games, so it isn't too hard to imagine them doing really well once they are whole.
Reason to Die: It may not matter if Romo only comes back at Thanksgiving. There is a good chance they'll be 2-8, and probably at best 3-7, heading into that game. Their margin of error is basically nothing. What a help it would have been to win JUST ONE of the non-Romo games.
25.) Chicago Bears (3-5 = 162-221)
Reason to Fly: The Bears have a competent coaching staff that is getting the most out of truly limited talent, and making Jay Cutler into the most composed, safe version of himself. The team is 3-3 when Cutler does start, and figures to get healthier in the second half.
Reason to Die: Their ceiling is capped with Cutler unless their personnel improves whole-sale on the defensive side, so maybe Cutler having a reserved season is bad for their long-term outlook? They still have a real lack of young talent, and while Fox and Gase are here to stay, we are a while away from the true next version of the good Bears.
24.) Miami Dolphins (3-5 = 171-206)
Reason to Fly: Tannehill has played a lot better the last month - save for the disaster in New England. The defense is still plugging away, and there's a bright light at the end of the tunnel with a real coaching staff replacing the remnants of the Philbin era.
Reason to Die: With that loss, the season is close to a write-off at this point with five losses to AFC teams, so they are basically playing out the string with a bunch of coaches who likely won't be here next year. After a nice run back to 3-3, the last two weeks showed that there are structural problems here.
23.) Washington Redskins (3-5 = 158-195)
Reason to Fly: The team is starting to develop in Scott McLoughan's image, a hard-nosed defensive team that will play above its talent level on defense, and center around an offense that protects its QB and allows for a few easy throws.
Reason to Die: Much like with Chicago, what is the future here at QB? Kirk Cousins has been average at best, which is not really good. RGIII is likely gone. McLoughan built teams good enough to be 6-10 to 8-8, but they didn't really evolve until Alex Smith came under Harbaugh's wing. With Cousins, we're not really there.
22.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5 = 181-231)
Reason to Fly: The Buccaneers are competitive, could easily be 4-4, if not 5-3, and have a QB that has cut down on mistakes, and much like Cam Newton, looks committed to learning that position and not just rely on his athleticism.
Reason to Die: 2015 is a write-off at this point. There is great potential going forward, and in that division, they are in the best shape outside of Carolina, but maybe, just maybe, blowing leads is building character for what is to come. In many respects, they are emulating Lovie's first year in Chicago.
21.) Baltimore Ravens (2-6 = 190-214)
Reason to Fly: Are we sure they are out of it? There is an outside chance 8-8 gets a Wild Card, and the Ravens play a lot of the Wild Card contenders in the remaining portion of the season. It is unlikely but to me they are the first team in the list with a shot at the playoffs that doesn't need impossible scenarios to play out.
Reason to Die: Ok, they probably are out of it, but more than that they have to figure out how to retain a semblance of leadership on that defense. Reed and Lewis have been gone for a while, but now add Ngata and Suggs to that list. There's a lot of talent, but nothing much tying it together.
20.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-5 = 195-182)
Reason to Fly: The Chiefs are 2-0 in their last two games, despite losing Jamaal Charles, and their defense has put up four good defensive games in a row. They are in many ways a version of Baltimore, but with an additional win already in the bank. The schedule is easy, and they are very much in it.
Reason to Die: Without Jamaal Charles, their offense is very limited against better defenses (the Lions are not one), and they still have four tough road games left (Denver, San Diego, Oakland, Baltimore). They could conceivably sneak in, but more likely they'll be a less good version of the 2014 team... on the outside looking in come January.
19.) Tennessee Titans (2-6 = 169-187)
Reason to Fly: Marcus Mariota is very good, and even better when his few completely awful throws results in two Saints running into each other and batting the ball up in the air, which is then caught and run in for a TD. But still, Marcus Mariota is very good.
Reason to Die: There are talent deficiencies, but Mariota can mask a lot of those. The bigger issue is the coaching situation. Mike Mularkey has been competent with young QBs (specifically Matt Ryan), but it would be good to figure out if he's the long term option past 2015.
18.) New Orleans Saints (4-5 = 241-268)
Reason to Fly: Drew Brees is very good, and that offense has at times the last four weeks, looked somewhat like the dynamic machine from 2009-2013. The Saints offense is giving Brees far, far, far more time now than they did early in the season, and maybe him taking the week off was an incredible risky, and now correct, decision.
Reason to Die: They just lost a home game to a team that was 1-7, a game that included a blown 4th quarter lead. Again, this was at home. I brought up 2009-2013. Can you even imagine this happening in the Superdome in 2009-2013? Is that even in the realm of possibility? No, it is absolutely not.
17.) Atlanta Falcons (6-3 = 229-190)
Reason to Fly: The Falcons have six wins in the bank, which helps. They also have a fairly easy schedule to close out the season, which also helps. The NFC Wild Card picture is as muddled as the AFC's, but the teams generally have higher upsides. You may need 10 wins, but for Atlanta, that is just four more... and they have the best QB in that group.
Reason to Die: Well, they had five of the six wins banked a month ago, and proceeded to play a still-easy part of the schedule and went 1-3, with the one win coming as a 3-point win against Zach Mettenberger. So no matter the banked wins or easy schedule, nothing comes easy for them.
16.) Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4 = 206-182)
Reason to Die: Ben Roethlisberger is hurt again. He was amazingly healthy in 2012-14, when the team waffled between mediocre and good, but now he's hurt for the 2nd time in one season, and this is right after Le'Veon Bell went out for the year. What the hell.
Reason to Fly: Roethlisberger will come back, and no one is running away from the pack in the AFC Wild card. They have a key head-to-head win over Oakland, but four AFC losses will hurt. Also, the rest of their team has been able to pick up for Roethlisberger being out before.
15.) Philadelphia Eagles (4-4 = 193-164)
Reason to Die: They just aren't very good. This is a team that scored 440+ points in both of Chip Kelly's seasons, and are on pace to score under 400. Sam Bradford is not working, the o-line is still bad, and they have to struggle to approach 30 points.
Reason to Fly: The defense is still quite good. They're also on pace to have by far their best defensive season in Chip Kelly's time here. The team is healthy on that side of the ball, and that front is good enough to win a few games and have them sneak in.
14.) Indianapolis Colts (4-5 = 200-227)
Reason to Die: Andrew Luck broke his world. He's going to miss 2-5 games, probably the high end. This team has had such a rough season. Ironically, they've been healthier than normal, but one of the few injured guys is the franchise.
Reason to Fly: Matt Hasselbeck did a decent job in spot duty earlier, and that division is so abhorrent, they may make the playoffs by multiple games at 7-9. they just need to be somewhat near .500 when Luck comes back and they'll be fine.
13.) Buffalo Bills (4-4 = 209-190)
Reason to Die: What happened to that great Bills defense? In 2013-14, with Gregg Williams and Jim Schwartz as coordinators, the Bills were a Top-5 defense. They had 59 sacks in 2013, and 48 more last year. They had great defensive numbers across the board in 2014. Rex comes in... and they're squarely average and on pace for 26 sacks.
Reason to Fly: What happened to that bad Bills offense! Somehow, the Bills are squarely in teh Wild Card race because of their offense, one that has succeeded with Tyrod Taylor and is getting healthier. They may make the playoffs yet, just not the way we expected.
12.) St. Louis Rams (4-4 = 153-146)
Reason to Die: The Rams basically have two offensive plays; run the ball with Todd Gurley, or run the ball with Tavon Austin. There's not much else. They're basically now depending on Wes Welker to make an improvement.
Reason to Fly: That defense is still very, very good and will get healthier as the season goes on. They have a front-runner for DPOTY in Aaron Donald, and overall are on pace for 54 sacks. They have an outside shot at the playoffs, but are well set for the future.
11.) Seattle Seahawks (4-4 = 167-140)
Reason to Die: The Seahawks offense still depends on Russell Wilson being a miracle worker, and he's been worse at that than normal this year. Not all his fault, His line and weapons have never been THIS bad before. Also, it would be nice if the defense doens't blow 10+ point leads every other week.
Reason to Fly: Guess who's tied for 2nd in points allowed? Guess who's defense will still swallow up any marginal offense. Guess who's still .500 and poised for a nice 2nd half run again. The offense will likely push their ceiling below Super Bowl in 2015, but they'll be a tough, tough out.
10.) Oakland Raiders (4-4 = 213-211)
Reason to Die: The defense is terrible. They have a few nice pieces, and it will get better as the focus shifts to that side of the ball in the draft going forward, but right now unless they get pressure guys are open everywhere.
Reason to Fly: The offense is legitimately good. They kept pace with teh Steelers despite fumbling all over the place. Derek Carr is legitimately a Top-10 QB in 2015, and his connection with those young guys, not only Cooper, will be special to watch in the coming years.
9.) New York Giants (5-4 = 247-226)
Reason to Die: They have no pass rush and now lost arguably their best d-lineman in Jonathan Hankins. The defense is coached well, and they force takeaways, and JPP may give them something, but that defense is still not very good.
Reason to Fly: The offense is about as good as the defense is bad, as Eli Manning has taken to that offense well, and they've started incorporating Shane Vereen nicely as the season has gone on. They also get to play in that division, setting up an eery repeat of 2011.
8.) Minnesota Vikings (6-2 = 168-140)
Reason to Die: They have to start scoring more than 21 points in a game to continue to win; and Teddy Bridgewater is still just a marginal player who hasn't really improved at all in 2015 from his previous self.
Reason to Fly: The team that is tied with Seattle for 2nd in points allowed is the Vikings. They're defense has been good all season, and they're something special on that outdoor field when they are at home. I really wonder if the Vikings will lose something when they move back indoors next year.
7.) New York Jets (5-3 = 200-162)
Reason to Die: Ryan Fitzpatrick will cost them a few games, and the defense at times doesn't play up to their true talent. They are still trying to integrate all those d-lineman into a working rotation, and Revis has been slightly below his normal self during the 2nd quarter of the season.
Reason to Fly: They've banked five wins and have only two AFC losses, and still have a lot of head-to-head games over competitors. Also, that offense might be the best Jets offense since the pre-Thanksgiving Favre bunch in 2008.
6.) Green Bay Packers (6-2 = 203-167)
Reason to Die: It's a 5-team league at the top right now, and the Packers, two weeks after being the clear favorite in the NFC, are #6. They were famous for never being blown out, and then a week after losing 10-29, fell behind 10-37. Yes, they made a comeback, but being down 20+ two weeks in a row is a bad sign.
Reason to Fly: They still have Aaron Rodgers, and maybe that 4th quarter is a sign of things to come. Rodgers is still good enough to always win at least 10 games.
5.) Carolina Panthers (8-0 = 228-165)
Reason to Die: What is going on in the 4th Quarter? The Panthers defense has been tremendous in Q1-3 the last two games, then gave up 20 straight points to nearly blow the Colts game, and then 19 straight points to nearly blow the Packers game.
Reason to Fly: A lot of that is probably just lack of depth due to injuries up-front. I wonder if we'll see the mad secondary blitzing that was so effective for the 2013 Panthers if this continues. Also, do people realize they are on pace to score 456 points, the 4th highest in the league.
4.) Denver Broncos (7-1 = 192-139)
Reason to Die: For once, the defense faltered giving up way too many 3rd down conversions, especially in the mid range (3 to 8 yards); and the run-game disappeared after a nice stretch. Manning also returned to his mental mistakes, even if physically he looked good.
Reason to Fly: Manning physically looked good again. The TD throw to Sanders, and the roll-out throw to the opposite side of the field to Daniels are throws he could not make three weeks ago. That defense, on its worst day, gave up just 369 yards and likely won't be as bad on third down again. Just keep plugging along, knowing the tough games to come are all at home.
3.) Arizona Cardinals (6-2 = 263-153)
Reason to Die: The Cardinals may really rue dropping those two games to the Rams, and especially to Landry Jones and the Steelers. They are appreciably better than Seattle so far in 2015, yet if they lose the upcoming Sunday, they will only be 1 game up on Seattle.
Reason to Fly: They've been 90% as good as New England so far this year. They've scored just 13 points less, and allowed just 10 points more - and this is despite losing two games. They've been so good, but yes, they haven't played many good teams so far.
2.) Cincinnati Bengals (8-0 = 229-142)
Reason to Die: They are still the Bengals and this is still Andy Dalton. Yes, he looks good, but so far the Bengals have been incredibly healthy on both sides of the ball, and their depth at receiver, and both lines is not the best.
Reason to Fly: When you factor in competition of opponents, they might be the best team. They haven't been as dominant as New England, or even Arizona in their wins, but the Bengals have been ruthless. Also, can we just admit that Andy Dalton is a legitimate MVP candidate.
1.) New England Patriots (8-0 = 276-143)
Reason to Die: Dion Lewis's injury is meaningful. He's done a great job in the Vereen / Woodhead / Faulk role, and there is no natural replacement. That and the o-line injuries are piling up, and that offense has been about 10% worse the last few weeks.
Reason to Fly: They're 8-0, and the Champs, and have the Golden Boy, and the best Coach, and the best Owner, and the best Everything.
Projecting the Playoff Field
AFC
1.) New England Patriots = 14-2
2.) Denver Broncos = 13-3
3.) Cincinnati Bengals = 13-3
4.) Indianapolis Colts = 9-7
5.) New York Jets = 11-5
6.) Oakland Raiders = 10-6
NFC
1.) Carolina Panthers = 13-3
2.) Arizona Cardinals = 12-4
3.) Green Bay Packers = 12-4
4.) New York Giants = 9-7
5.) Minnesota Vikings = 10-6
6.) St. Louis Rams = 10-6
Looking Ahead to Next Week's Games
Byes: Atlanta Falcons (6-3), Indianapolis Colts (4-5), San Diego Chargers (2-7), San Francisco 49ers (3-6)
14.) Cleveland Browns (2-7) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (5-4) (1:00 - CBS)
13.) Jacksonville Jaguars (2-6) @ Baltimore Ravens (2-6) (1;00 - CBS)
12.) Dallas Cowboys (2-6) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad vs. Bad" Sunday, as we get three teams that feature six bad teams - and yes, without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers qualify as a bad team. The Browns may actually have a chance to get their first win in Heinz Field (it is STAGGERING that they haven't done this yet). The Ravens can start a potential second half run, and I guess the Cowboys may finally get a Romo-less win.
11.) Houston Texans (3-5) @ Cincinnati Bengals (8-0) (MNF - ESPN)
10.) Carolina Panthers (8-0) @ Tennessee Titans (2-6) (1:00 - FOX)
9.) Detroit Lions (1-7) @ Green Bay Packers (6-2) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it "Bad vs. Good" Sunday and Monday, as three of the Big Six in the NFL (CIN, CAR, GB, NE, DEN, ARZ) play three awful teams. The Texans are easily, along with San Fran, the worst three win team. The Titans are better than 2-6, but Mariota is not facing the Saints this week - if two Panthers are in position to make a pick, it won't become a TD. The Packers also get to R-E-L-A-X with the Lions and that awful defense coming to town.
8.) New Orleans Saints (4-5) @ Washington Redskins (3-5) (1:00 - FOX)
7.) Chicago Bears (3-5) @ St. Louis Rams (4-4) (1:00 - CBS)
6.) Miami Dolphins (3-5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (4-4) (1:00 - FOX)
I call it 'Mediocre vs. Mediocre" Sunday. The 1:00 slate is just a mess this week; while the late slate is uniformly good. Just a weird reversale. These three games are so average, so blah, so nothing. I may actually do something different from 1:00-4:00 this Sunday.
5.) Minnesota Vikings (6-2) @ Oakland Raiders (4-4) (4:05 - FOX)
I call it "Another 1970's Super Bowl that is somehow a good game" Sunday, as the surprising 6-2 Vikings play the surprising 4-4 Raiders. Somehow, I feel like the Raiders are better. They are definitely more exciting. This is definitely a defense vs. offense matchup, but the Raiders just had one of those two weeks ago and their offense dominated.
4.) Kansas City Chiefs (3-5) @ Denver Broncos (7-1) (4:25 - CBS)
3.) Buffalo Bills (4-4) @ New York Jets (5-3) (TNF - NFLN)
2.) Arizona Cardinals (6-2) @ Seattle Seahawks (4-4) (SNF - NBC)
I call it "Divisional Games Mean Something" Sunday, as we get three good division games. The Chiefs are on a mini-win streak, and with a soft schedule ahead, a win here could really get them going in the 2nd half. The Bills and Jets play for pole position for a Wild Card in what combines as Rex Ryan's return. Finally, Cardinals @ Seahawks could be a great battle on Sunday Night, the first in two weeks for teh Cardinals, who host Cincinnati next Sunday Night.
1.) New England Patriots (8-0) @ New York Giants (5-4) (4:25 - CBS)
I call it "Revenge is a dish..." Sunday, as My Word. The Patriots go for 9-0, but also go for triple revence. The Giants go for a big win at home, something that would really put them in nice position in the NFC East. The Giants seemingly know how to play the Patriots, but literally two Giants defenders remain from the Super Bowl in 2011 (Prince Amukamara and Jason Pierre-Paul and his seven fingers). Really nice game here.
