(W-C3) Chicago Blackhawks vs (E-A2) Tampa Bay Lightning
State of the Teams: Chicago
still only has four playable defenseman. Another series down, a series where
the Blackhawks played about two extra games worth of hockey with the OT games.
The Blackhawks had this problem before the Western Conference Finals, and they
still do. I guess Duncan Keith is a superman, but it will be interesting to see
if he can hold up in another series playing 30+ minutes a game. For the Blackhawks,
they actually played Timmonen a little more, but they really can’t get away
with that against a fast team. The Hawks also went to their trump card on
offense in Games 5-7, playing Kane and Toews on the same line for long
stretches. It makes that first line scary-good, but really dampens their 2nd
line of offensive talent. For the Lightning, they have the opposite problem,
with too many defenseman! Seriously, they’ve now basically committed to this 11
forwards 7 defenseman matchup, double-shifting one of their top three (Killorn,
Filpulla, Stamkos at random). That has limited the playing time of Brendan
Morrow, who’s a little too slow for the NHL playoffs in 2015 (the Lightning’s
version of Timmonen), and maximized the time that one of their top-6 are on the
ice. It is an interesting gambit for a really top-heavy team. On the goalie
side, both have had moments of insanity, like Crawford getting benched in Round
1, or giving up 9 goals in Gms. 4-5 of the last series, or Bishop’s last three
games in Tampa. Bishop’s best has definitely been better though, witness his
three shutouts being arguably the three biggest games they’ve played, Game 7
against Detroit, and Game 5 & 7 against the Rangers. Both of these teams
are really good. Both of these teams are well coached and won’t get over-hyped
or fall apart.
The Matchup: The
Blackhawks are going from one challenge to the other. They’re going from
playing against a very different type of team, a more physical, larger team
like Anaheim, to now a team that can counter the Blackhawks’s greatest
strength: team speed. The Hawks are one of the fastest teams. The Lightning are
faster. In a weird way, the Lightning are going against arguably a worse
opponent. The Rangers are really good. They basically are the Eastern
Conference version of the Hawks. They don’t have the starpower that Chicago
does (apart from goal), but they have superior depth. The Lightning actually
may be relieved to now face a human goalie, after beating Price and Lundqvist
in back-to-back series. Crawford is easily a step down. That said, there are a
few reasons to pick Chicago that aren’t just ‘they’re battle tested!’. First,
the Blackhawks have the defensive ability to neutralize a team like Tampa, that
overly relies on their top lines to score. They have a Toews-Hossa duo that can
go right up against the Triplets, and then fight fire with fire giving the Kane
line against Stamkos. They also have a great set of four defensemen to throw at
them as well. The Lightning scored 21 of their 22 goals in the Conference
Finals with their top-6 forwards. That needs to change. The Lightning, though,
do have the ability to score from depth lines – it just didn’t happen against
the Rangers. The Hawks also have a great PK to throw against the Lightning at
times dominant powerplay. The Lightning will need big series from their
defense, but they’ve done it at times. This really is an even series, and when
you put things like team mentality in play, you can start tipping it one way or
the other.
The Pick: I’m
going with the Lightning in 6 games. Sure, that might be an odd pick when the
much more obvious Tampa in 7 is sitting out there, but this series I think the
lack of defensive depth will hurt Chicago even more after going through the
physical pounding of Anaheim for 7 games. Keith can only do so much. The
Lightning are, in reality, equally skilled. They have good defensive forwards.
They have multiple lines. They have their best player on a line that will likely
not even have to face Toews and Hossa that much (it really is pick your poison for
Quenneville). They are healthier, younger, faster, and I honestly think given
the lack of defensive depth, better.
