Eastern Conference
(A2) Tampa Bay Lightning vs (M1) New York Rangers
State of the Teams: The Lightning are making it this far for the first time in 4 years. That may seem recent, and in a way it is, but it is also an eon ago for the Lightning. Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman are still there... and that is it. Literally. Two guys remain from a team, a successful team, from four years ago. The Lightning rebuilt their team really quickly, and despite having a slightly worse year this year than last, with a healthy Ben Bishop in the playoffs, they have been able to achieve their destiny. The Lightning are also the highest-scoring team in the NHL. That usually spells doom in the playoffs (the last team to make the Finals with the most goals in the '11 Canucks, before that the '01 Devils), but their offense has played quite well. For the Rangers, they are the first President's Trophy winner to make it this far in a non-lockout season since those '11 Canucks. It took a 2nd straight year overcoming a 1-3 series deficit in the 2nd round to make it. They sleep-walked through the 1st round, but showed amazing fortitude coming back against Washington. The Rangers are on a historic run of playing 14-straight one-goal playoff games, which shows both their strength and also their inability to ever put teams away. They scored goals all season, but for the second straight year their offense has really slowed in the playoffs. Good thing they have the king.
The Matchup: Speed. Both teams have it. Both teams are playing a team that can match that aspect of their game. The Lightning played speedy teams already, but for the Rangers this is a massive step up in terms of the speed they'll face. The Lightning turn their speed into one of the most effective wave attacks I've seen in years, while the Rangers use it to be deadly in the neutral and defensive zone. The Lightning are defnitely playing like the better team, or at least the deeper team. Their top-2 lines have been great, and if Ryan Callahan comes back, that puts Valteri Filpulla on the 3rd line, an amazing sign of center depth. The Rangers have the edge on the blue-line, and probably in goal, though Ben Bishop, for all his shakiness at times, has really good numbers. One edge for the Lightning is they completely outplatyed the Rangers in their 3 regular season meetings, but that doesn't always translate. The Lightning are deeper, younger and healthier, but are they more capable of playing against a team that thrives on winning close games?
The Pick: I'm liking the Lightning, mainly because they have that forward depth that the Rangers haven't really faced. The Lightning also have the speed the Rangers haven't faced. Team speed is the Rangers best strength, aside from Lundqvist, and they might be the slower team top-to-bottom in this series. I don't think it is as simple as that, but the Stanley Cup Playoffs are a bitch to project anyway.
Lightning in 6
Western Conference Finals
(C3) Chicago Blackhawks vs (P1) Anaheim Ducks
The State of the Teams: Just like last year, we have the two true best teams in teh West matched up against each other. Unlike last year, both these two have been dominant in the playoffs so far. The Blackhawks were a trendy pick to be upset by Minnesota, and flew right by them with relative ease. Unlike in the 1st round, where the Hawks seemed a little off when playing on the road, here the Blackhawks somehow played better in Minnesota. For the Ducks, people can criticize the fact that they've played the easiest set of teams, but let's remember they were a really trendy pick to get upset in the 1st round. Let's also remember that while they made history by coming back in the 3rd period three times in the 1st round, they also, against Calgary, won three games by multiple goals, and the one game they lost was when they gave up a late goal to send it into OT. The Ducks brought in Ryan Kesler to let them match up center depth, but the real key for them has been the depth of their blue-line, a flat group of 6 guys that can all play complementary hockey. The Ducks are actually the team with the more stable goalie, though Corey Crawford definitely seems to have put his major issues that surfaced against Nashville behind him. Both teams are very good, and both teams are set up nicely headed into this matchup.
The Matchup: There's no 'speed' key element here. To me, the real key is who wins the battle of 2nd lines. The Ducks have the best pure line in hockey, with Getzlaf and Perry playing at just ridiculous levels, but the Hawks top line has the defensive ability to neutralize them, as Toews and Hossa are to defensive forwards with the Ducks duo is to offense. The 3rd lines are pretty even. The Blackhawks can throw Patrick Sharp out there, but the Cogliano-Palmieir-Thompson line is playing really well and is far faster than a normal 3rd line. The key to me is who wins that 2nd line matchup. The Hawks have more talent there - hello Patrick Kane! - but Brad Richards and Brian Bickell have been really quiet so far. Belesky/Silvferberg/Kesler have not been quiet, not at all. Kesler has been great in the palyoffs, and Belesky woke up against Calgary. That line has the potential to dominate shifts as a group in a way Chicago's doesn't. The Blackhawks have four great defenseman, but losing Michael Roszival hurts as it forces Kimo Timmonen to play far too many minutes for a 40-year old. That could also shift this ever so slightly in the Ducks favor.
The Pick: Last year we saw a truly great Western Conference Final, with the Kings outlasting the Hawks in 7 games. This year could match it, and I think it does. The amount of talent in this series is ridiuclous. The amount of depth is ridiculous. Fredrik Andersen and Corey Crawford are equally good or equally shaky, depending on how you look at it. Both teams have special teams that cancel each other's out (Ducks better PP, Hawks better PK), so I think it really comes down to two small areas the Ducks are better: 2nd line, and defensive depth, and that depth becomes bigger the longer the series goes, and I think it goes a long time.
The Matchup: There's no 'speed' key element here. To me, the real key is who wins the battle of 2nd lines. The Ducks have the best pure line in hockey, with Getzlaf and Perry playing at just ridiculous levels, but the Hawks top line has the defensive ability to neutralize them, as Toews and Hossa are to defensive forwards with the Ducks duo is to offense. The 3rd lines are pretty even. The Blackhawks can throw Patrick Sharp out there, but the Cogliano-Palmieir-Thompson line is playing really well and is far faster than a normal 3rd line. The key to me is who wins that 2nd line matchup. The Hawks have more talent there - hello Patrick Kane! - but Brad Richards and Brian Bickell have been really quiet so far. Belesky/Silvferberg/Kesler have not been quiet, not at all. Kesler has been great in the palyoffs, and Belesky woke up against Calgary. That line has the potential to dominate shifts as a group in a way Chicago's doesn't. The Blackhawks have four great defenseman, but losing Michael Roszival hurts as it forces Kimo Timmonen to play far too many minutes for a 40-year old. That could also shift this ever so slightly in the Ducks favor.
The Pick: Last year we saw a truly great Western Conference Final, with the Kings outlasting the Hawks in 7 games. This year could match it, and I think it does. The amount of talent in this series is ridiuclous. The amount of depth is ridiculous. Fredrik Andersen and Corey Crawford are equally good or equally shaky, depending on how you look at it. Both teams have special teams that cancel each other's out (Ducks better PP, Hawks better PK), so I think it really comes down to two small areas the Ducks are better: 2nd line, and defensive depth, and that depth becomes bigger the longer the series goes, and I think it goes a long time.
Ducks in 7
