It's that time of year again, the 10-week ecstasy of ice that is the Stanley Cup Playoffs. In just 2 months time, we'll have 20 sweaty, bearded, crying men carrying around a giant steel cup, there are few better things in sports. Even better this year, everyone's favorite hateable newcomer, the Kings, flamed out spectacularly and missed the playoffs, and then so did everyone's favorite hateable old-timer, the Boston Bruins (first time missing since 2008). These are different times, Canada is over-represented, and there are some great storylines. I have to say, I am looking forward to these collection of games a whole lot. Let's get to the series and the breakdowns and the picks:
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
(A1) Montreal Canadiens (110 pts) vs (W2) Ottawa Senators (99 pts)
The Senators are the Eastern Conference surprises this year, taking the Bruins spot (quite literally, 6 of the other 7 teams made the playoffs last season), and what an incredible ride it was, as the Senators closed the season on a ridiculous 24-4-4 run to nab the last playoff spot. A lot was written about Andrew 'The Hamburgler' Hammond, who became a cult hero big enough to have Sens fans throw hamburgers on the ice, but the real story for the Senators was their offense suddenly coming alive. Mark Stone, one of the many great rookies, played great down the stretch, but so did the offensive trio of Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris and Mike Zibanejad, the future of the team. Then they have the brilliant Erik Karlsson as their top defender. On the other side are the Canadiens, who will be missing their best offensive player, Max Pacioretty, for some portion of the series, and are a little too dependent on their all-world goalie Carey Price. The Canadiens have home ice, and the great goalie, but to me the Senators are the team with the better roster. At some point, Hammond's clock will strike midnight, but I don't think it is here, against an offensively challenged Montreal team. I don't like many upsets in the 1st round, but I do like this one.
Senators in 6
(A2) Tampa Bay Lightning (108 pts) vs (A3) Detroit Red Wings (100 pts)
Somehow, the Red Wings are in the playoffs again, the 24th straight time. Somehow, despite them being a combined 70 years old, Zetterberg and Datsyuk lead the team in scoring. The Red Wings defense has definitely slipped considerably over the years, and their goalie situation is a little strange, with Petr Marazek and his mediocre stats expected to start. On the other side are the Lightning, the highest scoring team in the NHL, who enter the playoffs this year with a healthy Ben Bishop (he got hurt late last year, ruined a team about as good). The scoring is a little more spread out this year from non Stamkos-players, as Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov both pumped in 29. The Lightning are a really well put together team, as they bring the #11 scoring defense to supplement that top ranked offense. Victor Hedman is the star on defense, but getting Anton Stralman as almost a throw-in in the Marty St. Louis trade last year is really paying dividends. Overall, the Lightning are just better, and Detroits lack of defenseman depth is an awful problem to have against the Lightning's depth on offense. There's really no area where the Red Wings are better.
Lightning in 6
Metro Division
(M1) New York Rangers (113 pts) vs (W2) Pittsburgh Penguins (98 pts)
I still can't believe the Penguins came that close to missing the playoffs, as they ended the season just awfully. In a weird twist, the Penguins actually ranked better in goals allowed (9th) than goals scored (18th), which is a nice change, if not for the fact that their best defenseman is out for the season given Letang's surgery. Crosby and Malkin are still good, but their bottom-6 on offense and their bottom-4 on defense are weaker than ever. The Rangers, on the other hand, have arguably the best bottom of their lines in the Eastern Conference. The Rangers are just so deep right now. Their top-8 scorers are all forwards, which is a good thing in their case, indicating how all their top-3 lines are capable of scoring. Their defense is about as good. If you list all their players by minutes played, you have to go down to #17 before you get a player with a negative +/-, which is peak Lidstrom-era Red Wings good. Lundqvist is back and healthy, but even if his injury issues flare-up, Talbot is a proven back-up. The Rangers are just really good, and the Penguins have three good players, one of which won't play.
Rangers in 5
(M2) Washington Capitals (101 pts) vs (M3) New York Islanders (101 pts)
This might be the best Capitals team in terms of overall balance in a long time. They don't have the scoring prowess (or the number of points) of their President's Trophy winning team in 09-10, but this team mixes the #6 scoring offense with the #6 scoring defense. The defense as a whole goes 4-deep with really good players (Carlson, Alzner, Green, Niskanen), and their offense has recommitted to rolling lines and playing defense - oh, and they have the best goal scorer in the NHL paired with a breaking (re-)breaking out Nicklas Backstrom. The Islanders can easily match their offensive firepower, with Tavares heading up a laundry-list of offensive talent, but they really can't match the Capitals in either defense or, more importanlty, goal-tending. It's amazing how many goalies have started playoff games for the Capitals in the Ovechkin era, but Holtby this year is easily the best. The Islanders counter with Jaroslav Halak, the man who has lived off his performance aginst those very same 2010 Capitals in a 1st round upset five years ago. I do think this series goes long, because almost all Capitals series end up going 7, and because this being potentially the last few games in Nassau Coliseum, but I think the Capitals make it.
Capitals in 7
Western Conference
Pacific Division
(P1) Anaheim Ducks (109 pts) vs (W2) Winnipeg Jets (99 pts)
I don't get the Ducks. Their roster is loaded with talent at every position (though the defense is more having 6-7 quality players rather than any outstanding one), and a coach who has been excellent in the regular season, and yet they scored just 10 more goals than allowed. I have no idea how they translated all that into 109 points, but anyway. The Jets actually have twice the goal differential, but half the top-flight talent. The Ducks have, arguably, the three best offensive players in this series, and the better goalie, but the Jets have all the intangibles, in a way. They have that chaotic crowd in Winnipeg, that will be even more amped than usual in the first playoff series in Winnipeg in 20 years. They're already very good at home. The Jets also have better 3rd and 4th line production on offense, though when your 1st-2nd lines are that much worse it may not matter. The Ducks should win, discounting their totally perplexing point total given their goals total. I guess you can credit an almost fake-looking record in one-goal games - the Ducks are 30-1-8, that is not a typo. One goal games matter, and for a few years now the Ducks have shown an ability to win those, and I think that, and their experience, carries them through.
Ducks in 6
(P2) Vancouver Canucks (101 pts) vs (P3) Calgary Flames (97 pts)
By number of points, the Flames are the worst team in the playoffs. Then why do I like them so much? Given their reasonable goal differential (+25) they probably should have done better. They definitely did do better in the second half of the season. Should it bother me that four of their top 8 scorers are defenseman? Maybe, but they made some trades at the deadline so that's a volume factor, and also their style is to push defenseman up in the zone, with incredible team speed to make up for it. They also have two super youngsters, in Johnny Gaudrea, the favorite for the Calder trophy, and Sean Monahan. Obviously both teams have incredible fan-bases, but there is something so awesome about all that red that literally bleeds through in games in the Saddledome. The Canucks are kind of the opposite, depending on their forwards for all of their scoring (11 of their top 12 in points are forwards), and they got nice years from secondary offensive guys like Nick Bognino and Radim Verbata. Their defense is an issue though. Their old, aging and a little slow. The Flames are not any of these things. The Canucks used to be able to tout a speedy team, but that was a few years back. The Flames also have a slight edge in goal, as Jonas Hiller has had a better year than either Ryan Miller or Eddie Lack. The Flames were supposed to be a tanking team, but they shed that a long time ago, held off for a playoff spot, and I really do think they'll upend the Canucks
Flames in 6
Central Division
(C1) St. Louis Blues (109 pts) vs (W1) Minnesota Wild (100 pts)
Both these teams have easy Eastern Conference anologues. For the Blues, it is the Rangers, as they also mix the Rangers stable of depth everywhere. The Blues have a great top line, with Steen, Teresenko and Backes, but have a really good 2nd and 3rd line. They have quality D-Men with a great top pairing (Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo). Their just a really good team, whose shrewd personnel move in the offseason of getting Paul Stasny, and good fortune to not draw Chicago in the first round, gives them a clear path. Sadly, while they avoided Chicago, they got the Senators of the West, the hottest team in the NHL since the all-star break. The Wild were about as good last year as a whole, but even though their top young guys didn't improve as much as expected (Coyle, Neitereider, Grandlund), a few refugees from teh Sabres tank-pocolypse in Jason Pominvile and Thomas Vanek exceeded expectations. The Wild also have the hottest goalie in the NHL in Devin Dubnyk, compared to the Blues having to pick either Jake Allen or Brian Elliott. This is probably the hardest series to pick. The Blues are a great team, one that could easily win the Cup, but the Wild have been playing so well. More than anything, I can't wait to watch this - two teams that should bring out the best in each other playing against each other. I'll take the Blues because of home ice and overall I think this is their year, but I wouldn't be shocked at all for it to go the other way.
Blues in 7
(C2) Nashville Predators (104 pts) vs (C3) Chicago Blackhawks (102 pts)
The Avalanche last year somehow won the Central Division, making the Blackhawks and Blues play each other. The Predators almost did the same thing this year before the Blues terrific 2nd half won the division. Still, most people think the Predators are just a stepping stone the Blackhawks must cross before the Blues / Hawks division final. But should we thing that? The Predators were not supposed to be this good, but Peter Laviolette is a very good coach, and the team has quite a bit of 'B+' level talent. They have depth down the middle, and have one of the best defender / goalie combinations in the NHL, with Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne, who remains very good in his early 30's. Problem for them, and this is why most are picking the Blackhawks, are that the Hawks are arguably better everywhere. With Patrick Kane expected back (and make no mistake, had Kane stayed healthy, they would have at least finished 2nd in the division), the Blackhawks are just better everywhere. This may be the last hurrah for the full core (both Sharp and Hossa may not be back next year), but they are proven playoff performers, with a deep blue line and a goalie who gets better every year. It's boring picking chalk here, but I think the Predators were a very good regular season team; the Blackhawks are just a very good team.
Blackhawks in 5
No mater who wins whatever series, the playoffs are the Greatest. Watch them, watch all of them. Get excited, the best, most intense, playoff sporting event is back!
Eastern Conference
Atlantic Division
(A1) Montreal Canadiens (110 pts) vs (W2) Ottawa Senators (99 pts)
The Senators are the Eastern Conference surprises this year, taking the Bruins spot (quite literally, 6 of the other 7 teams made the playoffs last season), and what an incredible ride it was, as the Senators closed the season on a ridiculous 24-4-4 run to nab the last playoff spot. A lot was written about Andrew 'The Hamburgler' Hammond, who became a cult hero big enough to have Sens fans throw hamburgers on the ice, but the real story for the Senators was their offense suddenly coming alive. Mark Stone, one of the many great rookies, played great down the stretch, but so did the offensive trio of Bobby Ryan, Kyle Turris and Mike Zibanejad, the future of the team. Then they have the brilliant Erik Karlsson as their top defender. On the other side are the Canadiens, who will be missing their best offensive player, Max Pacioretty, for some portion of the series, and are a little too dependent on their all-world goalie Carey Price. The Canadiens have home ice, and the great goalie, but to me the Senators are the team with the better roster. At some point, Hammond's clock will strike midnight, but I don't think it is here, against an offensively challenged Montreal team. I don't like many upsets in the 1st round, but I do like this one.
Senators in 6
(A2) Tampa Bay Lightning (108 pts) vs (A3) Detroit Red Wings (100 pts)
Somehow, the Red Wings are in the playoffs again, the 24th straight time. Somehow, despite them being a combined 70 years old, Zetterberg and Datsyuk lead the team in scoring. The Red Wings defense has definitely slipped considerably over the years, and their goalie situation is a little strange, with Petr Marazek and his mediocre stats expected to start. On the other side are the Lightning, the highest scoring team in the NHL, who enter the playoffs this year with a healthy Ben Bishop (he got hurt late last year, ruined a team about as good). The scoring is a little more spread out this year from non Stamkos-players, as Tyler Johnson and Nikita Kucherov both pumped in 29. The Lightning are a really well put together team, as they bring the #11 scoring defense to supplement that top ranked offense. Victor Hedman is the star on defense, but getting Anton Stralman as almost a throw-in in the Marty St. Louis trade last year is really paying dividends. Overall, the Lightning are just better, and Detroits lack of defenseman depth is an awful problem to have against the Lightning's depth on offense. There's really no area where the Red Wings are better.
Lightning in 6
Metro Division
(M1) New York Rangers (113 pts) vs (W2) Pittsburgh Penguins (98 pts)
I still can't believe the Penguins came that close to missing the playoffs, as they ended the season just awfully. In a weird twist, the Penguins actually ranked better in goals allowed (9th) than goals scored (18th), which is a nice change, if not for the fact that their best defenseman is out for the season given Letang's surgery. Crosby and Malkin are still good, but their bottom-6 on offense and their bottom-4 on defense are weaker than ever. The Rangers, on the other hand, have arguably the best bottom of their lines in the Eastern Conference. The Rangers are just so deep right now. Their top-8 scorers are all forwards, which is a good thing in their case, indicating how all their top-3 lines are capable of scoring. Their defense is about as good. If you list all their players by minutes played, you have to go down to #17 before you get a player with a negative +/-, which is peak Lidstrom-era Red Wings good. Lundqvist is back and healthy, but even if his injury issues flare-up, Talbot is a proven back-up. The Rangers are just really good, and the Penguins have three good players, one of which won't play.
Rangers in 5
(M2) Washington Capitals (101 pts) vs (M3) New York Islanders (101 pts)
This might be the best Capitals team in terms of overall balance in a long time. They don't have the scoring prowess (or the number of points) of their President's Trophy winning team in 09-10, but this team mixes the #6 scoring offense with the #6 scoring defense. The defense as a whole goes 4-deep with really good players (Carlson, Alzner, Green, Niskanen), and their offense has recommitted to rolling lines and playing defense - oh, and they have the best goal scorer in the NHL paired with a breaking (re-)breaking out Nicklas Backstrom. The Islanders can easily match their offensive firepower, with Tavares heading up a laundry-list of offensive talent, but they really can't match the Capitals in either defense or, more importanlty, goal-tending. It's amazing how many goalies have started playoff games for the Capitals in the Ovechkin era, but Holtby this year is easily the best. The Islanders counter with Jaroslav Halak, the man who has lived off his performance aginst those very same 2010 Capitals in a 1st round upset five years ago. I do think this series goes long, because almost all Capitals series end up going 7, and because this being potentially the last few games in Nassau Coliseum, but I think the Capitals make it.
Capitals in 7
Western Conference
Pacific Division
(P1) Anaheim Ducks (109 pts) vs (W2) Winnipeg Jets (99 pts)
I don't get the Ducks. Their roster is loaded with talent at every position (though the defense is more having 6-7 quality players rather than any outstanding one), and a coach who has been excellent in the regular season, and yet they scored just 10 more goals than allowed. I have no idea how they translated all that into 109 points, but anyway. The Jets actually have twice the goal differential, but half the top-flight talent. The Ducks have, arguably, the three best offensive players in this series, and the better goalie, but the Jets have all the intangibles, in a way. They have that chaotic crowd in Winnipeg, that will be even more amped than usual in the first playoff series in Winnipeg in 20 years. They're already very good at home. The Jets also have better 3rd and 4th line production on offense, though when your 1st-2nd lines are that much worse it may not matter. The Ducks should win, discounting their totally perplexing point total given their goals total. I guess you can credit an almost fake-looking record in one-goal games - the Ducks are 30-1-8, that is not a typo. One goal games matter, and for a few years now the Ducks have shown an ability to win those, and I think that, and their experience, carries them through.
Ducks in 6
(P2) Vancouver Canucks (101 pts) vs (P3) Calgary Flames (97 pts)
By number of points, the Flames are the worst team in the playoffs. Then why do I like them so much? Given their reasonable goal differential (+25) they probably should have done better. They definitely did do better in the second half of the season. Should it bother me that four of their top 8 scorers are defenseman? Maybe, but they made some trades at the deadline so that's a volume factor, and also their style is to push defenseman up in the zone, with incredible team speed to make up for it. They also have two super youngsters, in Johnny Gaudrea, the favorite for the Calder trophy, and Sean Monahan. Obviously both teams have incredible fan-bases, but there is something so awesome about all that red that literally bleeds through in games in the Saddledome. The Canucks are kind of the opposite, depending on their forwards for all of their scoring (11 of their top 12 in points are forwards), and they got nice years from secondary offensive guys like Nick Bognino and Radim Verbata. Their defense is an issue though. Their old, aging and a little slow. The Flames are not any of these things. The Canucks used to be able to tout a speedy team, but that was a few years back. The Flames also have a slight edge in goal, as Jonas Hiller has had a better year than either Ryan Miller or Eddie Lack. The Flames were supposed to be a tanking team, but they shed that a long time ago, held off for a playoff spot, and I really do think they'll upend the Canucks
Flames in 6
Central Division
(C1) St. Louis Blues (109 pts) vs (W1) Minnesota Wild (100 pts)
Both these teams have easy Eastern Conference anologues. For the Blues, it is the Rangers, as they also mix the Rangers stable of depth everywhere. The Blues have a great top line, with Steen, Teresenko and Backes, but have a really good 2nd and 3rd line. They have quality D-Men with a great top pairing (Shattenkirk and Pietrangelo). Their just a really good team, whose shrewd personnel move in the offseason of getting Paul Stasny, and good fortune to not draw Chicago in the first round, gives them a clear path. Sadly, while they avoided Chicago, they got the Senators of the West, the hottest team in the NHL since the all-star break. The Wild were about as good last year as a whole, but even though their top young guys didn't improve as much as expected (Coyle, Neitereider, Grandlund), a few refugees from teh Sabres tank-pocolypse in Jason Pominvile and Thomas Vanek exceeded expectations. The Wild also have the hottest goalie in the NHL in Devin Dubnyk, compared to the Blues having to pick either Jake Allen or Brian Elliott. This is probably the hardest series to pick. The Blues are a great team, one that could easily win the Cup, but the Wild have been playing so well. More than anything, I can't wait to watch this - two teams that should bring out the best in each other playing against each other. I'll take the Blues because of home ice and overall I think this is their year, but I wouldn't be shocked at all for it to go the other way.
Blues in 7
(C2) Nashville Predators (104 pts) vs (C3) Chicago Blackhawks (102 pts)
The Avalanche last year somehow won the Central Division, making the Blackhawks and Blues play each other. The Predators almost did the same thing this year before the Blues terrific 2nd half won the division. Still, most people think the Predators are just a stepping stone the Blackhawks must cross before the Blues / Hawks division final. But should we thing that? The Predators were not supposed to be this good, but Peter Laviolette is a very good coach, and the team has quite a bit of 'B+' level talent. They have depth down the middle, and have one of the best defender / goalie combinations in the NHL, with Shea Weber and Pekka Rinne, who remains very good in his early 30's. Problem for them, and this is why most are picking the Blackhawks, are that the Hawks are arguably better everywhere. With Patrick Kane expected back (and make no mistake, had Kane stayed healthy, they would have at least finished 2nd in the division), the Blackhawks are just better everywhere. This may be the last hurrah for the full core (both Sharp and Hossa may not be back next year), but they are proven playoff performers, with a deep blue line and a goalie who gets better every year. It's boring picking chalk here, but I think the Predators were a very good regular season team; the Blackhawks are just a very good team.
Blackhawks in 5
No mater who wins whatever series, the playoffs are the Greatest. Watch them, watch all of them. Get excited, the best, most intense, playoff sporting event is back!
