NFL 2015: Hot Stove Recap Pt. 1, The Trades and Retirements

The NFL went crazy yesterday. After a pretty awful year all around in 2014, with domestic violence and child abuse the most common refrain from the masses, and the league coming under much-deserved fire for their handling in everything, and a Super Bowl pitting two pretty hateable teams, 2015 is off to a flying start. My favorite outcome from yesterday was that the league decided that trades were a thing again, even player for player trades. We’ve had three high-profile player for player trades, and the McCoy for Alonso swap now seems by far the least interesting. We also had a return of a lost hero, and a lot of player movement. The trades definitely superceded all but the Revis move yesterday, but there are more FAs out there. I’ll give my quick-hit thoughts on all the main moves both yesterday and over the weekend when ‘announcing’ deals was technically not ‘allowed.’

First up, the trades and the shocking (and more shocking amount) of retirements

Rams trade Sam Bradford, a 2015 5^th-round pick, and a conditional 2016 3^rd/4^th round pick to Eagles for Nick Foles, a 2015 4^th-round pick, and a 2016 2^nd round pick

Look, I wrote about Chip Kelly last week, and I have to say that if this trade was made before that piece, I would have been even harder on Chip Kelly. I seriously have no idea what this trade is supposed to do for the Eagles. Not only are they giving up the younger, cheaper, and, at least on terms of actual performance, better QB, they are giving up more in pick compensation. Unless this is step 1 of a multi-step process, and I can’t imagine anyone wants Bradford in lieu of draft picks given his contract, I have no idea what Kelly is doing. Bradford is not a natural fit for his offense either, and he hasn’t been healthy since mid-2014. As for the Rams, I like it a lot. What they’re really giving up is nothing. They were probably ready to cut ties with Sam Bradford anyway, so to turn his contract into a cheaper contract for a probably better player and get better picks out of the deal, this is a steal. It wasn’t getting all the #1 picks for RGIII, but it is still a really nice trade for the Rams, who with a healthy Foles, may have a good shot at 2^nd place in the NFC West.

Grade for Rams: A
Grade for Eagles: D

Seahawks trade Max Unger, and a 2015 1^st-round pick to Saints for Jimmy Graham, and a 2015 4^th-round pick

This is probably the most even trade and most interesting one as well. It is really hard to say either is a clear winner. The Saints do lose their best non-Brees player, but get a good center back, a crucial position to be strong at given Brees’s height disadvantage, and a 1^st-round pick, albeit the second to last 1^st round pick. The Seahawks get their best passing weapon in Wilson’s career, but a large contract at that and lose that 1^st round pick. Unless they trade back into it, the Seahawks will go three straight years now without a 1^st round pick (traded ’13 for Harvin, and ’14 in a trade back – Bridgewater was picked there). Personally, I like it for both teams. The Saints have to start a rebuild and plan for the post-Brees life. Losing Graham but getting a cheap, good player (hopefully) at #31 is important, and Unger himself is young and a good cog to rebuild that line. The Seahawks don’t need a 1^st round pick as much as they need a blue-chip passing option. The Super Bowl showed that itself, with the Seahawks needing an ungodly performance from Chris Robinson to do anything in the 1^st half, and then losing when Ricardo Lockette and Jermaine Kearse couldn’t effectively run a pick play. For one year at least, this should be a good move for Seattle. I’m not sure how this will play, though, when Russell Wilson gets paid in a year.

Grade for Seahawks: B+
Grade for Saints: B+

Ravens trade Haloti Ngata to Lions for a 2015 4^th and 5^th round pick

This is an interesting trade. Ngata was not going to play for the Ravens in 2015, so getting anything for him is better than cutting him. In that sense, the Ravens make out well. What the Ravens real issue is, though, is just that paying Joe Flacco all that money has ruined a team that counted heavily on not paying a QB huge money and having higher priced guys everywhere else. For the Lions, they can replace 80% of Suh with Ngata, assuming he stays healthy, and giving up two mid-round picks isn’t bad. What hurts the Lions though is Ngata’s contract. There is a decent chance they renegotiate, or even give him a new deal, but for now Ngata does not come cheap at all.

Grade for Ravens: B-
Grade for Lions: B

Bears trade Brandon Marshall to Jets for a 2015 5^th-round pick

Yes, Brandon Marshall is a malcontent, and yes he wore out his welcome in Chicago, and yes the Bears probably grew tired of him anyway, but sorry, I don’t get this for the Bears at all. I guess you can say they were prepared to cut Marshall, but I’m stunned he was so low value that a 5^th round pick could be all they could get for him. For the Jets, this is a good move. Marshall doesn’t have too long term of a deal, and they have the cap room to hold him for a year or two. A 5^th-round pick is not worthless, but it is worth less than a 31-32 year old Marshall. Brandon Marshall generally plays well for a year or two in a stop before souring himself anyway, and he’s a dependable target for whoever plays QB for the Jets in 2015.

Grade for Bears: D
Grade for Jets: A-

Bills trade Kiko Alonso to Eagles for LeSean McCoy

Remember when this trade was a big thing? When unraveling the details, it started to look better for the Eagles. They gave up a 28-year old RB who was paid a lot (and would still be paid a lot following a new deal from Buffalo) for a 26-year old LB who is paid very little. Alonso is definitely a questionmark in terms of his expected production. The last time he was on the field, he was very good, but that was over a year ago after tearing his ACL in training camp. If we remove the fact that most of the cap room bought by getting rid of McCoy was spent on Bradford, is a decent move in isolation. For the Bills, they get a still-dynamic player in an offense that needs one at RB with Spiller likely gone. Decent move for both teams.

Grade for Bills: B-
Grade for Eagles: B

Vikings trade Matt Cassel and 2015 6^th round pick to Bills for 2015 5^th round pick and 2016 7^th round pick

Basically, the Vikings get nothing for Cassel. Not that they needed Cassel, but it is hard to say they get anything here. Giving up Cassel is meaningless also for the Vikings, who have Teddy Bridgewater entrenched as their starter, and having gone through FA to get a backup. Cassel provides some value to the Bills, but he’s not going to lead them to the playoffs. He probably has a higher floor than EJ Manuel, but a lower ceiling as well. The Bills need more QBs though, and these draft picks will likely amount to nothing. A 2016 7^th-round pick is essentially worthless from an expected value perspective.

Grade for Vikings: C
Grade for Bills: B

San Francisco loses Patrick Willis and Justin Smith to retirement

First, let’s get to the football ramifications. The 49ers defense stayed surprisingly competent last year even without Willis (and Bowman), and a lessening Smith, but these still represent big losses. Depth guys now have to be starters, and the leaders of that defense are gone. Patrick Willis was still very good, and Smith still got double-teamed. The 49ers have a lot of problems everywhere right now, but to lose two entrenched starters on the same day for nothing has to hurt even more.

Now for the players themselves, their retirements really close that chapter of the all-too-brief 49ers renaissance. Patrick Willis and Justin Smith were the two best, and most important, players on the 49ers in 2011, their team that surprised the NFL going 13-3 and being a few special teams fumbles away from a Super Bowl appearance. Willis is probably the more memorable player, and is our first great test for peak vs. longevity since Terrell Davis, but his true comps in that regard should be the Gale Sayers/Barry Sanders types. Those are two legendary RBs, but Willis is, in all reality, a legendary LB. He was, pretty much from the moment he entered the league, the best MLB in the NFL. He was a 1^st team all-pro as a rookie, and then again for four straight years (09-12), two before the Harbaugh Renaissance in San Francisco. He made in all 5 1^st –team All Pros in his 7 full seasons (last year being his injury-marred 8^th), and 7 pro bowls. Say he plays five more years, a couple at a high level, and then three at reduced level and/or injured, is he a HOF? Absolutely. Just because he didn’t have that decline phase doesn’t mean he isn’t now.

Smith is also, a little more understatedly, a good HOF prospect. He got a lot of credit for his role in the 49ers resurgence, but this guy was a really good player even before he came to San Francisco. He wasn’t as notable in Cincinnati, but his 43.5 sacks in 7 seasons there provide excellent filler and stats to bolster what he did in his 7 seasons in San Francisco. At times in 2009-12, he was unblockable with a single guy, and his performances in the 49ers playoff games in 2011 were close to legendary. Smith made that scheme with Fangio work in 2011-12, and Willis/Bowman did the rest. Guys who played inside as much as he did (all 7 years in San Francisco, and he rotated often inside in Cincinnati), don’t just get 87 sacks, especially in the consistent manner he did. His sacks totals year-after-year were ridiculous (8.5-6.5-5-8-6-7.5-2-7-6-8.5-7.5-3-6.5-5). Consistently very good to great production for 14 years, that defines what a Hall of Famer should be. The San Francisco 49ers just lost two players who shared the same defense for 7 seasons, but also lost two Hall of Fame players on the very same day.

Jake Locker and Jason Worilds suddenly retire at 26, and 27

Justin Smith was at the retiring age, and Patrick Willis was at least 30 and had achieved a ton of success in the NFL, but these two retirements were really just shocking. Jake Locker at least you could say had his career organically winding down anyway, unless he wanted to be a Ponder/Cassel type and float from team to team for 5 more years. His retirement was a definite boon to Tennessee’s cap situation, and at least clears him from being an option at QB there. But for Worilds, who was a reasonably sought-after free agent on the cusp of signing likely the biggest contract of his career, there’s no real reason to retire unless you really have lost the will and desire to play football.

I guess that is the reasoning for both of them. Locker at least had suffered tremendous physical harm over his career (including a nasty concussion last year – though he claims that had no impact in his decision), but Worilds stayed relatively healthy and had his best year yet. Locker wouldn’t be the first QB to cut his losses very quickly, but it is sad given that for four games in 2013, he looked like he would fulfill that promise of his. Locker got hurt in that 4^th game, a dominant 38-13 win over the Jets, but at that point he had completed 69-111 (62.2%), for 721 yards with 6 TDs and no INTs. Now, he was dink-and-dunking it, but he looked good. He had also rushed effectively, and the team was 3-1. He got hurt, and was never the same again, and just like that he is gone. Sad, but not terribly unexpected for a guy who is likely bright enough to do reasonably well in the ‘real world’.

For Worilds, I tried to think of a comparable, and maybe there are a few if you go back beyond my time of following the game. We just don’t see current Free Agents as young as him and as relatively sought after as him just up and retire like that. Jason Worilds was not a great player, and certainly did not become the next James Harrison or Lamarr Woodley, but a lot of teams can use a 27-year old OLB, who stayed healthy for three straight seasons, coming off 15.5 sacks in the last two years. That can get you a very nice 3-4 year contract, with a good chance of seeing most of that money. Worilds walked away from that. I won’t criticize him for the choice. If he doesn’t feel like football is the best outlet to spend much of his time over the next 5 years, then I will respect that decision. But it is still baffling just to see it happening.

I’ll be back probably end of the week with a recap of the major FA moves. This got way too long to do it here, so I decided that given the surprise trades and retirements are likely over (though would I be shocked if Kaepernick gets traded and, say, Rahim Moore retires? After yesterday, no), I can do this now, and let more of the FAs get scooped up before reviewing those.