So, we will see a lot of draft grades given out over the weekend, which is absolutely dumb. No one knows how any of these players will turn out. No one knows if Andrew Luck will succeed in the NFL, or if Dontari Poe will be able to show any skills that doesn't require him to bench 225 lbs. The real time to grade drafts is at least five years later, so for the next couple of days, I will grade the drafts from 10 years ago (2002) until five years ago (2007) and see how those teams did. To start with, here is the 2002 1st Round draft grades, given at a time where a lot of these players are know over 30 and closing in on retirement if they haven't got there already. The teams are graded on the player they selected, the players they immediately passed up (as in, if the #3 pick is awful, while the #4 is good, then that is a problem, but if the #3 is awful and the #22 is good, then that is not really that #3 teams fault). They are also graded on what they gave up for the pick if any trade happened. Anyway, let's go to the picks.
2002 NFL Draft
1.) Houston Texans select David Carr (QB, Fresno St) - Grade: C
In reality I should grade them worse, but I think David Carr was always talented, but a victim of just a mercilessly awful o-line. David Carr's career stats are decent (59.7% cmp, 74.9 rating) for someone playing with an expansion team with, again, no o-line help.
2.) Carolina Panthers select Julius Peppers (DE, UNC) - Grade: A
Great pick for a team that entered that offseason 1-15. They were in a Super Bowl two years later, and partly because of Peppers. Julius was the defensive rookie of the year in 2002 and a 5 time pro-bowler (4 time all-pro) with the Panthers (got some more with the Bears).
3.) Detroit Lions select Joey Harrington (QB, Oregon) - Grade: D
Another player that might have been a little better in another situation, but unlike Carr, I feel like Harrington was a bigger part of the failure in Detroit than Carr was. His career numbers are worse, and he was the more seedy project QB coming out of Oregon.
4.) Buffalo Bills select Mike Williams (T, Texas) - Grade: F
Just an awful pick overall. Tackles that are high picks rarely abjectly fail, but Williams did. He was a total failure at tackle and then a failure at guard. Williams did have a career renaissance (I mean, for him) in Washington starting 10 decent games, but for the Bills, it was a massive strike-out.
5.) San Diego Chargers select Quentin Jammer (CB, Texas) - Grade: B-
Jammer was a decent player, and a long-time starter. He never achieved nearly the success that people all thought he would, but Jammer did give the Chargers a lot of value by being a consistently healthy, productive player for eight years. This would have been a great pick in the mid-teens, but at #5, it is a little underwhelming.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs select Ryan Sims (DT, UNC) - Grade: C*
* - The Chiefs swapped with Dallas (#8) for their 3rd round pick.
He's like Jammer in that he's had a long career that added some value, but he never reached the heights that Jammer reached at his best. Ryan Sims career is now over, but he was far from a true bust, but just an average regular.
7.) Minnesota Vikings select Bryant McKinnies (T, Miami) - Grade: A-
This was a great pick. McKinnie was a valuable starter for the Vikings for many years. He was never one of the best tackles in the NFL (which is why I'm not giving them an 'A' outright) but did start 80 straight games from 2003-2007. That is about all you can expect from the #7 pick.
8.) Dallas Cowboys select Roy Williams (SS, Oklahoma) - Grade: B*
* - See Chiefs (#6)
On paper, this was a good pick, given that Roy Williams made quite a few pro bowls, but he was never all that worthy of being a pro-bowler in the first place. Williams was a total liability in coverage, which didn't help the team all that much in big games.
9.) Jacksonville Jaguars select John Henderson (DT, Tennessee) - Grade: A
This was the best pick of the Top-10 considering where they picked him (Peppers gives him a run, though). Henderson was extremely valuable and durable for a team that for the peak of his career (2004-2007) was a consistent top-half defense, especially against the run. He is still a valuable player now for the Raiders. Good, underrated player.
10.) Cincinnati Bengals select Levi Jones (OT, Arizona State) - Grade: B
Another decent pick for a guy who while not great, was consistent and healthy over time, starting many games throughout the good Palmer/Johnson/Housh years. I never understood why the Bengals got rid of him as soon as they did.
11.) Indianapolis Colts select Dwight Freeney (DE, Syracuse) - Grade: A
The 2nd best pick of the draft right here (the best pick was a real shocker). Freeney is going to be a HOF, and he was picked at #11. The wrap on Freeney was that he was too small and light, but he was the fastest DE maybe ever, and used that blinding speed to make him the great player he was.
12.) Arizona Cardinals select Wendell Bryant (DT, Wisconsin) - Grade: F
The second total bust of the draft, Bryant was out of the NFL in two seasons after being suspended for violating the substance abuse policy for the 3rd time. The Cardinals really had a string of just awful picks in the early part of the decade.
13.) New Orleans Saints select Donte' Stallworth (WR, Tennessee) - Grade: B-
Stallworth was never a huge producer for the Saints, but he was a decent contributor for them for four years, and had a nice career post-New Orleans (outside of that whole running over a person while DUI thing). His career is now basically over, but Stallworth was a league above average receiver, which is league average value from this spot.
14.) New York Giants select Jeremy Shockey (TE, Miami) - Grade: A-*
* - The Giants swapped with Tenenssee (#15) for their 4th round pick.
Hard to really value this. The Giants have had their most team success without Shockey (who got hurt midway through the 2007 season) and wasn't a great clubhouse influence, but his post-NYG career has just reinforced the fact that he is quite a good TE over his career, catching a touchdown in Super Bowl XLIV, and now being a nice target for Cam Newton.
15.) Tennessee Titans select Albert Haynesworth (DT, Tennessee) - Grade: A-*
* - See Giants (#14)
Basically everything that can be written about Shockey can be written about Haynesworth (other than Haynesworth not having a good post-Titans career). Haynesworth at his best was the best defensive player in the league (2007-2008) and the best player on a team that made the playoffs twice almost solely because of that defense. He was a headcase, but a really good and at time unblockable player.
16.) Cleveland Browns select William Green (RB, BC) - Grade: C
William Green's career started out solidly, which is why this isn't a D or worse. His 2002 season was good and he helped the new-Browns make the playoffs (yeah, that happened). He had a DUI in 2003 and then had his fiancee stab him in the back (literally), which kind of derailed everything.
17.) Oakland Raiders select Phillip Buchannon (CB, Miami) - Grade: B-
Phillip Buchannon never lived up to the expectations he had coming out of that factory in Miami (overshadowed, by a guy to come). He was never even as good as McKinnie, or Jammer, or those other guys who had long if not special careers. Buchannon was decent, but that is about it.
18.) Atlanta Falcons select TJ Duckett (RB, MSU) - Grade: B-
I'm not sure what to make of this pick. Duckett is a decent player but his career was inflated by never being the true starter in Atlanta (behind Warrick Dun) and being in an offense that because of Michael Vick always had inflated rushing numbers. That said, he was a constant producer and stayed healthy.
19.) Denver Broncos select Ashley Lelie (WR, Hawaii) - Grade: C+
Lelie had a very good season in 2004, but nothing else. When his Broncos career ended before the 2006 season, Lelie was effectively done being a productive player in any sense. Lelie apparenly made a stink when the Broncos traded for the guy picked right after him (who was a lot better) but both of their careers were basically over around the same time.
20.) Green Bay Packers select Javon Walker (WR, Florida St) - Grade: B
I was originally going to give Javon Walker a higher grade, but the similarities between him and Lelie are staggering. Both had one great year (2004). Both had no real career in their time in Oakland. Walker broke his leg early in 2005 after having a long contract dispute with the Packers. But when he was good, he was one of the best.
21.) New England Patriots select Daniel Graham (TE, Colorado) - Grade: C+
Daniel Graham is evidence that Bill Belichick was not always a good drafter of TEs. The real litmus test of Graham's disappointment was that they picked a TE in the first round two years later. Daniel Graham was on two Super Bowl winners and is still in the league amazingly, but his career numbers are really, really overwhelming.
22.) New York Jets select Bryan Thomas (DE, UAB) - Grade: B+
He is one of just three players in this first round that are still on the team that drafted him. Bryan Thomas has never been a pro-bowl player, but it is hard to ask for too much more from a #22 pick than eleven years of production. Even if that production is league average (which it mostly has) it is valuable.
23.) Oakland Raiders select Napoleon Harris (LB, Northwestern) - Grade: C
It is amazing to me that the Vikings waned him as part of the Randy Moss trade, but Napoleon Harris was average throughout his Raider career, and did nothing else in Minnesota or wherever he went after that.
24.) Baltimore Ravens select Ed Reed (S, Miami) - Grade: A++
One of the best picks of all time. The difference between this type of pick and picking Tom Brady in the 6th round is that Brady is luck. The Ravens obviously saw a lot in Ed Reed, and boy were they right. Ed Reed is one of the best safeties ever and they got him with the 24th pick.
25.) New Orleans Saints select Charles Grant (DE, Georgia) - Grade: B+
Charles Grant had an above average career for eight years with the Saints, leaving that town with a ring in Super Bowl XLIV. Charles Grant was never as good as Will Smith, but the two combined to be one of the better DE tandems in the NFL in their tenure.
26.) Philadelphia Eagles select Lito Sheppard (CB, Florida) - Grade: B+
Lito Sheppard is a lot like Charles Grant in that he had a long, slightly above average career as a starter for a good team that used him as a corner. The Eagles used Sheppard to replace Troy Vincent and it was a good transition.
27.) San Francisco 49ers select Mike Rumph (CB, Miami) - Grade: C
Mike Rumph was out of the league in six years. That is bad. He was never a league average player. That is also bad. There is better evidence of this theory, but players in a unit in college that play alongside a true great are often propped up. Three players from Miami's secondary were picked, and only one was really worth it (Reed) while both Rumph and Buchannon were overpicked.
28.) Seattle Seahawks select Jerramy Stevens (TE, Washington) - Grade: C
He had some memorable moments in the 2005 and 2006 postseasons (including running his mouth and then going off and having a disaster of a Super Bowl), but his overall career is really underwhelming. I was surprised when I realized that his career stats are worse than Daniel Graham, and unlike Graham, he had no value as a blocker.
29.) Chicago Bears select Marc Colombo (OT, BC) - Grade: D
It is hard to grade this pick. Marc Colombo is the first player in this draft that had no impact or value to the team that drafted him, but had a lot of value overall. For the Bears, he started just 7 games over three and a half years, but then started 88 games over the next six years for the Cowboys. I'm grading the teams here though, and that pick was awful for the Bears. Credit Colombo though.
30.) Pittsburgh Steelers select Kendall Simmons (G, Auburn) - Grade: B
Kendall Simmons started 76 games over five years for the Steelers when that team went to the playoffs three times and won Super Bowl XL. That is good production for a guard picked #30 for a team. It isn't great, but it is the definition of a good value pick at this point.
31.) St. Louis Rams select Robert Thomas (LB, UCLA) - Grade: C
Below league average player that was good in spots and stayed in the league for five years. That is a decent pick for a 3rd or 4th rounder. That is a bad pick for a 1st rounder. The beginning of some truly awful picks by the Rams.
32.) Washington Redskins select Patrick Ramsey (QB, Tulane) - Grade: D
Ramsey was Spurrier's great pick and it was a total swing and a miss. Those were talented Redskins teams and the Redskins just floundered on offense under Ramsey, who Spurrier gave up on from time to time. The reason why his grade is worse than Harrington or Carr is that he had more to work with and was, in honesty, worse.
Best pick in later rounds:
2nd.) Denver Broncos select Clinton Portis with the 51st pick.
3rd.) Philadelphia Eagles select Brian Westbrook with the 91st pick.
4th.) Pittsburgh Steelers select Larry Foote with the 128st pick.
5th.) Green Bay Packers select Aaron Kampman with the 156th pick.
6th.) Tennessee Titans select Justin Hartwig with the 187th pick.
7th.) Pittsburgh Steelers select Brett Keisel with the 242nd pick.
2002 NFL Draft
1.) Houston Texans select David Carr (QB, Fresno St) - Grade: C
In reality I should grade them worse, but I think David Carr was always talented, but a victim of just a mercilessly awful o-line. David Carr's career stats are decent (59.7% cmp, 74.9 rating) for someone playing with an expansion team with, again, no o-line help.
2.) Carolina Panthers select Julius Peppers (DE, UNC) - Grade: A
Great pick for a team that entered that offseason 1-15. They were in a Super Bowl two years later, and partly because of Peppers. Julius was the defensive rookie of the year in 2002 and a 5 time pro-bowler (4 time all-pro) with the Panthers (got some more with the Bears).
3.) Detroit Lions select Joey Harrington (QB, Oregon) - Grade: D
Another player that might have been a little better in another situation, but unlike Carr, I feel like Harrington was a bigger part of the failure in Detroit than Carr was. His career numbers are worse, and he was the more seedy project QB coming out of Oregon.
4.) Buffalo Bills select Mike Williams (T, Texas) - Grade: F
Just an awful pick overall. Tackles that are high picks rarely abjectly fail, but Williams did. He was a total failure at tackle and then a failure at guard. Williams did have a career renaissance (I mean, for him) in Washington starting 10 decent games, but for the Bills, it was a massive strike-out.
5.) San Diego Chargers select Quentin Jammer (CB, Texas) - Grade: B-
Jammer was a decent player, and a long-time starter. He never achieved nearly the success that people all thought he would, but Jammer did give the Chargers a lot of value by being a consistently healthy, productive player for eight years. This would have been a great pick in the mid-teens, but at #5, it is a little underwhelming.
6.) Kansas City Chiefs select Ryan Sims (DT, UNC) - Grade: C*
* - The Chiefs swapped with Dallas (#8) for their 3rd round pick.
He's like Jammer in that he's had a long career that added some value, but he never reached the heights that Jammer reached at his best. Ryan Sims career is now over, but he was far from a true bust, but just an average regular.
7.) Minnesota Vikings select Bryant McKinnies (T, Miami) - Grade: A-
This was a great pick. McKinnie was a valuable starter for the Vikings for many years. He was never one of the best tackles in the NFL (which is why I'm not giving them an 'A' outright) but did start 80 straight games from 2003-2007. That is about all you can expect from the #7 pick.
8.) Dallas Cowboys select Roy Williams (SS, Oklahoma) - Grade: B*
* - See Chiefs (#6)
On paper, this was a good pick, given that Roy Williams made quite a few pro bowls, but he was never all that worthy of being a pro-bowler in the first place. Williams was a total liability in coverage, which didn't help the team all that much in big games.
9.) Jacksonville Jaguars select John Henderson (DT, Tennessee) - Grade: A
This was the best pick of the Top-10 considering where they picked him (Peppers gives him a run, though). Henderson was extremely valuable and durable for a team that for the peak of his career (2004-2007) was a consistent top-half defense, especially against the run. He is still a valuable player now for the Raiders. Good, underrated player.
10.) Cincinnati Bengals select Levi Jones (OT, Arizona State) - Grade: B
Another decent pick for a guy who while not great, was consistent and healthy over time, starting many games throughout the good Palmer/Johnson/Housh years. I never understood why the Bengals got rid of him as soon as they did.
11.) Indianapolis Colts select Dwight Freeney (DE, Syracuse) - Grade: A
The 2nd best pick of the draft right here (the best pick was a real shocker). Freeney is going to be a HOF, and he was picked at #11. The wrap on Freeney was that he was too small and light, but he was the fastest DE maybe ever, and used that blinding speed to make him the great player he was.
12.) Arizona Cardinals select Wendell Bryant (DT, Wisconsin) - Grade: F
The second total bust of the draft, Bryant was out of the NFL in two seasons after being suspended for violating the substance abuse policy for the 3rd time. The Cardinals really had a string of just awful picks in the early part of the decade.
13.) New Orleans Saints select Donte' Stallworth (WR, Tennessee) - Grade: B-
Stallworth was never a huge producer for the Saints, but he was a decent contributor for them for four years, and had a nice career post-New Orleans (outside of that whole running over a person while DUI thing). His career is now basically over, but Stallworth was a league above average receiver, which is league average value from this spot.
14.) New York Giants select Jeremy Shockey (TE, Miami) - Grade: A-*
* - The Giants swapped with Tenenssee (#15) for their 4th round pick.
Hard to really value this. The Giants have had their most team success without Shockey (who got hurt midway through the 2007 season) and wasn't a great clubhouse influence, but his post-NYG career has just reinforced the fact that he is quite a good TE over his career, catching a touchdown in Super Bowl XLIV, and now being a nice target for Cam Newton.
15.) Tennessee Titans select Albert Haynesworth (DT, Tennessee) - Grade: A-*
* - See Giants (#14)
Basically everything that can be written about Shockey can be written about Haynesworth (other than Haynesworth not having a good post-Titans career). Haynesworth at his best was the best defensive player in the league (2007-2008) and the best player on a team that made the playoffs twice almost solely because of that defense. He was a headcase, but a really good and at time unblockable player.
16.) Cleveland Browns select William Green (RB, BC) - Grade: C
William Green's career started out solidly, which is why this isn't a D or worse. His 2002 season was good and he helped the new-Browns make the playoffs (yeah, that happened). He had a DUI in 2003 and then had his fiancee stab him in the back (literally), which kind of derailed everything.
17.) Oakland Raiders select Phillip Buchannon (CB, Miami) - Grade: B-
Phillip Buchannon never lived up to the expectations he had coming out of that factory in Miami (overshadowed, by a guy to come). He was never even as good as McKinnie, or Jammer, or those other guys who had long if not special careers. Buchannon was decent, but that is about it.
18.) Atlanta Falcons select TJ Duckett (RB, MSU) - Grade: B-
I'm not sure what to make of this pick. Duckett is a decent player but his career was inflated by never being the true starter in Atlanta (behind Warrick Dun) and being in an offense that because of Michael Vick always had inflated rushing numbers. That said, he was a constant producer and stayed healthy.
19.) Denver Broncos select Ashley Lelie (WR, Hawaii) - Grade: C+
Lelie had a very good season in 2004, but nothing else. When his Broncos career ended before the 2006 season, Lelie was effectively done being a productive player in any sense. Lelie apparenly made a stink when the Broncos traded for the guy picked right after him (who was a lot better) but both of their careers were basically over around the same time.
20.) Green Bay Packers select Javon Walker (WR, Florida St) - Grade: B
I was originally going to give Javon Walker a higher grade, but the similarities between him and Lelie are staggering. Both had one great year (2004). Both had no real career in their time in Oakland. Walker broke his leg early in 2005 after having a long contract dispute with the Packers. But when he was good, he was one of the best.
21.) New England Patriots select Daniel Graham (TE, Colorado) - Grade: C+
Daniel Graham is evidence that Bill Belichick was not always a good drafter of TEs. The real litmus test of Graham's disappointment was that they picked a TE in the first round two years later. Daniel Graham was on two Super Bowl winners and is still in the league amazingly, but his career numbers are really, really overwhelming.
22.) New York Jets select Bryan Thomas (DE, UAB) - Grade: B+
He is one of just three players in this first round that are still on the team that drafted him. Bryan Thomas has never been a pro-bowl player, but it is hard to ask for too much more from a #22 pick than eleven years of production. Even if that production is league average (which it mostly has) it is valuable.
23.) Oakland Raiders select Napoleon Harris (LB, Northwestern) - Grade: C
It is amazing to me that the Vikings waned him as part of the Randy Moss trade, but Napoleon Harris was average throughout his Raider career, and did nothing else in Minnesota or wherever he went after that.
24.) Baltimore Ravens select Ed Reed (S, Miami) - Grade: A++
One of the best picks of all time. The difference between this type of pick and picking Tom Brady in the 6th round is that Brady is luck. The Ravens obviously saw a lot in Ed Reed, and boy were they right. Ed Reed is one of the best safeties ever and they got him with the 24th pick.
25.) New Orleans Saints select Charles Grant (DE, Georgia) - Grade: B+
Charles Grant had an above average career for eight years with the Saints, leaving that town with a ring in Super Bowl XLIV. Charles Grant was never as good as Will Smith, but the two combined to be one of the better DE tandems in the NFL in their tenure.
26.) Philadelphia Eagles select Lito Sheppard (CB, Florida) - Grade: B+
Lito Sheppard is a lot like Charles Grant in that he had a long, slightly above average career as a starter for a good team that used him as a corner. The Eagles used Sheppard to replace Troy Vincent and it was a good transition.
27.) San Francisco 49ers select Mike Rumph (CB, Miami) - Grade: C
Mike Rumph was out of the league in six years. That is bad. He was never a league average player. That is also bad. There is better evidence of this theory, but players in a unit in college that play alongside a true great are often propped up. Three players from Miami's secondary were picked, and only one was really worth it (Reed) while both Rumph and Buchannon were overpicked.
28.) Seattle Seahawks select Jerramy Stevens (TE, Washington) - Grade: C
He had some memorable moments in the 2005 and 2006 postseasons (including running his mouth and then going off and having a disaster of a Super Bowl), but his overall career is really underwhelming. I was surprised when I realized that his career stats are worse than Daniel Graham, and unlike Graham, he had no value as a blocker.
29.) Chicago Bears select Marc Colombo (OT, BC) - Grade: D
It is hard to grade this pick. Marc Colombo is the first player in this draft that had no impact or value to the team that drafted him, but had a lot of value overall. For the Bears, he started just 7 games over three and a half years, but then started 88 games over the next six years for the Cowboys. I'm grading the teams here though, and that pick was awful for the Bears. Credit Colombo though.
30.) Pittsburgh Steelers select Kendall Simmons (G, Auburn) - Grade: B
Kendall Simmons started 76 games over five years for the Steelers when that team went to the playoffs three times and won Super Bowl XL. That is good production for a guard picked #30 for a team. It isn't great, but it is the definition of a good value pick at this point.
31.) St. Louis Rams select Robert Thomas (LB, UCLA) - Grade: C
Below league average player that was good in spots and stayed in the league for five years. That is a decent pick for a 3rd or 4th rounder. That is a bad pick for a 1st rounder. The beginning of some truly awful picks by the Rams.
32.) Washington Redskins select Patrick Ramsey (QB, Tulane) - Grade: D
Ramsey was Spurrier's great pick and it was a total swing and a miss. Those were talented Redskins teams and the Redskins just floundered on offense under Ramsey, who Spurrier gave up on from time to time. The reason why his grade is worse than Harrington or Carr is that he had more to work with and was, in honesty, worse.
Best pick in later rounds:
2nd.) Denver Broncos select Clinton Portis with the 51st pick.
3rd.) Philadelphia Eagles select Brian Westbrook with the 91st pick.
4th.) Pittsburgh Steelers select Larry Foote with the 128st pick.
5th.) Green Bay Packers select Aaron Kampman with the 156th pick.
6th.) Tennessee Titans select Justin Hartwig with the 187th pick.
7th.) Pittsburgh Steelers select Brett Keisel with the 242nd pick.
